The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Dr. David Khemakhem Global Energy Security Forum Miami,...
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The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Dr. David Khemakhem Global Energy Security Forum Miami, February 12, 2013 This presentation includes forward-looking
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Dr. David Khemakhem
Global Energy Security Forum Miami, February 12, 2013 This
presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future
conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and
energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in
technology, the development of new supply sources, political
events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and
under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the
Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The
information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and
forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as
publically-available information from external sources including
the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or
reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All
rights reserved.
Slide 2
Energy Outlook Development 100 countries 15 demand sectors 20
fuel types technology & policy ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for
Energy
Slide 3
2030 ~ 60 $/ton CO 2 Proxy Cost 2040 ~ 20 $/ton ~ 15 $/ton ~ 80
$/ton < 10 $/ton CO 2 Proxy Cost CO 2 Policies ExxonMobil 2013
Outlook for Energy
Slide 4
Global fundamentals
Slide 5
Population Billion Population Trends Impacts Energy Use
Fertility Rate* Children per Woman * Source: World Bank &
United Nations OECD Other Non OECD China India Africa Global
Demographics* Billion Age 0-14 Age 65+ Age 15-64 ExxonMobil 2013
Outlook for Energy
Slide 6
Energy Demand Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand GDP Trillion
2005$ China United States 2010-2040 AAGR % 5.6% 2.3% 1.8% Other
OECD Other Non OECD 3.9% World 2.8% ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for
Energy Quadrillion BTUs 2010-2040 AAGR % World 1.0% Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs Energy Saved ~500 2010-2040 AAGR % World 1.0%
Slide 7
Tale of Two Worlds Non OECD Quadrillion BTUs Biomass Other
Renewables Oil Nuclear Quadrillion BTUs OECD Coal Gas ExxonMobil
2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 8
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth
/ Yr. 2010 - 2040 1.0% 2040 2010 0.8% 1.7% -0.1% 2.4% 0.4% 5.8%
1.8% ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 9
Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Demand
Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 2010 2025 2040 Electricity
Generation Leads Growth ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 10
Residential/commercial
Slide 11
Million Households Household Growth Drives Residential Demand
2010 2040 ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 12
Residential/Commercial Outlook Residential Energy Intensity
Million BTUs per Person Japan North America Europe OECD China India
By Sector Quadrillion BTUs Commercial Residential Fuel Demand
Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Coal Oil Gas Biomass Other ExxonMobil
2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 13
Industrial
Slide 14
Industry Energy Demand Increases Chemicals Manufacturing &
Industry Energy Industry Other Plastics Fertilizer Paint Steel
Automobiles Textiles Liquid Fuels Coal Natural Gas Agriculture
Lubricants Asphalt Quadrillion BTUs ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for
Energy
Slide 15
Industrial Energy Demand By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Electricity
Oil Gas Renewables Coal By Region Quadrillion BTUs OECD China India
Rest of Non OECD Market Heat ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for
Energy
Slide 16
Electricity generation
Slide 17
Electricity Demand by Region Non OECD Thousand TWh Middle East
Southeast Asia Russia/Caspian Other Non OECD China Africa India
Thousand TWh North America Europe OECD Other OECD OECD ExxonMobil
2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 18
Electricity Generation Quadrillion BTUs Oil Nuclear Gas
Renewables Coal Electricity Generation Quadrillion BTUs OECD Non
OECD Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region ExxonMobil
2013 Outlook for Energy Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040
Quadrillion BTUs Oil Nuclear Gas Renewables Coal
Slide 19
GW Global CapacityGlobal Capacity Utilized GW Global
Electricity Generation Mix Evolves k TWh By Generation Wind &
Solar Oil Coal Nuclear Other Renewables Gas ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook
for Energy
Slide 20
Transportation
Slide 21
Sector Demand MBDOE Light Duty Marine Rail Heavy Duty Aviation
Transportation Demand ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Demand by
Region MBDOE 40 25 10
Slide 22
2040 Millions of Vehicles Powertrain Technology 2025 Millions
of Vehicles Powertrain Technology 2010 Millions of Vehicles
Powertrain Technology Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles ExxonMobil 2013
Outlook for Energy
Slide 23
Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency Incremental Vehicle
Efficiency Gains Miles per Gallon Powertrain Body & Accessories
Vehicle Size Hybrid Average 27 MPG 47 MPG Annual New Car Sales by
Type Million Cars ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 24
Todays Vehicle Technology Choices Gasoline: 350 miles Diesel:
435 miles E85: 260 miles Full hybrid: 515 miles CNG: 210 miles PHV:
Up to 40 miles + 450 miles Electric: Up to 100 miles 2012$k 5-Year
Cost & Savings Cost above Conventional Fuel Savings Estimated
Driving Distance per Fill-up ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for
Energy
Slide 25
Heavy Duty Transportation Efficiency Efficiency Impact MBDOE
New Truck Efficiency % Improvement, 2010-2040 Technology Powertrain
Body Powertrain Body Hybrid Regional Impact Logistics &
Congestion Truck Size ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 26
Growth in Demand from 2010 to 2040 MBDOE Transportation Fuel
Mix Fuel Demand MBDOE Diesel Gasoline Ethanol Biodiesel Jet Fuel
Fuel Oil Other Natural Gas ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 27
Supply
Slide 28
Remaining Oil Resource Crude and Condensate (BBO) North America
Europe ~100 Asia Pacific ~150 Latin America Africa Russia/Caspian
~1,000 Middle East ~650 ~200 ~1,100 Global ~4,300 Source: IEA
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 29
Liquids Supply MBDOE Supply by Type Other Liquids Biofuels
Conventional Crude & Condensate Tight Oil Oil Sands NGLs
Deepwater Resource* TBO Remaining Resource Cumulative Production *
Source: IEAExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 30
Global Gas Resource Over 200 years coverage at current demand
1000 TCF Conventional Unconventional 4.3 North America 2.5 Latin
America 1.6 Europe OECD 2.6 Africa 4.9 Middle East 6.2 Russia/
Caspian* 4.5 Asia Pacific Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 31
Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts North America Gas Supply
Local Unconventional LNG Local Conventional BCFD North America
Conventional North America Unconventional Global Gas Supply Rest of
World Conventional Rest of World Unconventional BCFD ExxonMobil
2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 32
Growth in Unconventional Production Production by Region BCFD
Production by Type BCFD Tight Coal Bed Methane Shale Rest of World
Asia Pacific Americas ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 33
North America Energy Balance Oil Regional Supply Gas
Quadrillion BTUs Net Imports Net Exports Regional Supply Net
Exports ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy Regional Supply Total
Energy Balance Net Exports Net Imports
Slide 34
Asia Pacific Energy Balance Oil In-country supply Gas
Quadrillion BTUs Net Imports In-country supply Total Energy Balance
Net Imports ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy In-country supply
Net Imports
Slide 35
Conclusions ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 36
Slide 37
Shale Gas and Hydraulic Fracturing Thousands of feet of solid
rock Conductor Casing Intermediate Casing Surface Casing Production
Casing* *14,000 feet measured depth
Slide 38
Regional Energy Trends Evolve Latin America Middle East Africa
Other AP China Russia/Caspian Europe North America Percent of World
Total By Region ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 39
Baseload, Startup 2030 2012 cents/kWh *Wind and solar exclude
costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission
$60/ton of CO 2 $0/ton Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity
Reliability Cost ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 40
Renewables Gain Share United States Percent of TWh Europe
Percent of TWh Asia Pacific Percent of TWh *Biomass includes
Municipal Solid Waste ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 41
ExxonMobil: Technology for Energy Challenges Technology to
address the twin challenges of increased energy demand while
mitigating risk from GHG emissions Improving Efficiency Automotive
technologies Vehicle light weighting Exxcore TM : tire lining
technology Advanced synthetic lubricants Power generation
Cogeneration Wind turbine lube oils Expanding Supplies Directional
drilling Unconventional and liquefied natural gas Advanced biofuels
Reducing Emissions Natural gas for power generation Controlled
Freeze Zone Carbon capture and storage Global Climate & Energy
Project
Slide 42
Costs Impact U.S. Heavy Duty Choices $k 3-Year Cost of
Ownership 2012 Fuel Cost Vehicle Cost $k 5-Year Cost of Ownership
2012 Fuel Cost Vehicle Cost CNG Tanks Short Haul Truck LNG Tanks
Long Haul Truck ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Slide 43
Bio for David Khemakhem (kmakm) David Khemakhem is an Energy
and Technology Advisor at ExxonMobil. He is a member of the
Corporate Strategic Planning Department, where he is responsible
for assessing energy trends, emerging energy technologies, and
related market and public policy issues around the world. He is one
of the principal contributors to ExxonMobils long-term global
Energy Outlook. He is also active in communicating ExxonMobils view
of the future of energy to a wide variety of audiences. David has
worked with Exxon then ExxonMobil since 1997 in numerous technical
and management assignments covering activities in the United States
and around the world. He started his career with Exxon Production
Research Company in the area of Wellbore Design and eventually
became Team Lead for the Well Integrity Group at ExxonMobil
Upstream Research. In 2001, he transferred to ExxonMobil Production
Company as a Subsurface Engineer overseeing completion and workover
operations in Colorado, Wyoming, California and South Texas. In
2003, David relocated to Qatar, where he spent six years in a
variety of assignments, including Drilling and Completions
Engineering Manager. In this role he led a team of engineers
working on RasGass 14 drilling rigs during the development of the
North Field. In 2009, David transferred back to Houston, joining
the ExxonMobil Upstream Research Company as Well Performance
Manager and then in 2010, he became the Unconventional Gas Recovery
Manager. The following year, in 2011, David moved to ExxonMobil
Headquarters to join the Corporate Strategic Planning team where he
is helping in the development of the Energy Outlook for 2013 and
beyond. David holds a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the
University of Minnesota. Text in Box: Short Bio