Global energy markets - Energy Information Administration · Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 0 5 10 15 20 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 Tight

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

Global energy markets

For

Woodrow Wilson Center | Global Energy Forum

September 21, 2015 | Washington, DC

by

Adam Sieminski, Administrator

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Short-term outlook


September 21, 2015 2

The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil

production from shale and other tight resources

3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0Eagle Ford (TX)

Bakken (MT & ND)

Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)

Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)

Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)

Delaware (TX & NM Permian)

Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)

Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY)

Haynesville

Utica (OH, PA & WV)

Marcellus (PA,WV,OH & NY)

Woodford (OK)

Granite Wash (OK & TX)

Austin Chalk (LA & TX)

Monterey (CA)

U.S. tight oil production

million barrels of oil per day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45Marcellus (PA,WV,OH & NY)

Haynesville (LA & TX)

Eagle Ford (TX)

Fayetteville (AR)

Barnett (TX)

Woodford (OK)

Bakken (ND)

Antrim (MI, IN, & OH)

Utica (OH, PA & WV)

Rest of US 'shale'

U.S. dry shale gas production

billion cubic feet per day

Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through August 2015 and

represent EIA’s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).


September 21, 2015

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015

monthly percent change

three month rolling average


September 21, 2015

Production growth in top U.S. crude producing regions (Permian,

Bakken, Niobrara, and Eagle Ford) reverses in early 2015

Source: Energy Information Administration, Drilling Productivity Report, September 2015 (chart extends to October

2015)

4

Forecasts for 2016 global demand have increased while supply

forecasts have decreased


September 21, 2015

2016 year-over-year supply and demand growth by STEO forecast month

million barrels per day

Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook

STEO Forecast Month

5

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2016 demand growth

2016 supply growth

Forecast for 2016 OPEC supply have risen on the Iran deal, while

non-OPEC forecasts have declined, driven by lower U.S. growth


September 21, 2015

2016 year-over-year supply growth by STEO forecast month



STEO Forecast Month

6

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00


2016 OPEC non-crude liquids

supply growth

2016 non-OPEC supply growth

2016 OPEC crude supply growth

Forecast OECD demand growth for 2016 has been revised higher


September 21, 2015

2016 year-over-year demand growth by STEO forecast month



STEO Forecast Month

7

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25


2016 non-OECD consumption growth

2016 OECD consumption growth

OPEC surplus production capacity in 2015 is lowest since 2008


September 21, 2015

OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity


Note: Shaded area represents 2004-2014 average (2.2 million barrels per day).

Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2015

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Forecast

OECD oil inventories are very high on a days of supply basis and

are projected to continue increasing


September 21, 2015

OECD commercial oil inventories

days of supply

Note: Colored band around days of supply represents the range between the minimum and maximum from Jan. 2011 -

Jan. 2015


9

Forecast

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016

=

September STEO

January STEO

Iranian crude oil production is expected to begin increasing in

the second quarter of 2016, supply out of inventory will be sold

before that


September 21, 2015

Iranian crude oil production


Source: Energy Information Administration

*EIA’s assessment

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Ja

n-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ju

l-1

1

Oct-

11

Ja

n-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ju

l-1

2

Oct-

12

Ja

n-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-13

Oct-

13

Ja

n-1

4

Ap

r-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Oct-

14

Ja

n-1

5

Ap

r-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Oct-

15

Ja

n-1

6

Ap

r-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Oct-

16

Joint Plan of Action

established

U.S. imposes

sanctions on Iran's

Central Bank

EU import ban in effect and

sanctions on shipping insurance

in Iran's oil sector enacted

Joint Comprehensive

Plan of Action released

Forecast

adoption*

implementation*

10

Oil supply and demand begin to rebalance in 2016

World supply and demand

million barrels per day (MMb/d)

Implied stock change


Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2015


September 21, 2015

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1 2015-Q1 2016-Q1

Implied stock change and balance (right axis)

World production (left axis)

World consumption (left axis)

11

For oil prices, the market-implied confidence band is very wide

WTI price

dollars per barrel

Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2015



0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

Historical spot price

STEO forecast

Nymex futures price

Current 95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval

June 2014 95% NYMEX futures price confidence interval

2014 2015 2016 2013

Long-term outlook for the United States



U.S. crude oil production: Supply rises above previous historical

highs before 2020 in all AEO2015 cases, with a range of longer-term

outcomes dependent on prices, resources and technology U.S. crude oil production


Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015

0

5

10

15

20

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040

Tight oil

Alaska

Lower 48 offshore

History 2013 2013 2013

U.S. maximum production level of

9.6 million barrels per day in 1970

Other lower 48 onshore

Reference High Oil and Gas

Resource

Low Oil Price



U.S. natural gas imports and exports

trillion cubic feet

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040

LNG imports

billion cubic feet per day

Projections History 2013

-10

0

10

20

2013 2013

30

40

-20 Reference Low Oil Price High Oil and Gas

Resource

Pipeline exports

to Mexico

Lower 48 states

LNG exports

Pipeline exports to Canada Pipeline imports from Canada

Alaska LNG exports


September 21, 2015

U.S. natural gas trade: Projected U.S. natural gas trade reflects

the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy

prices, along with resource outcomes

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015

15

Global long-term outlook



Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing

source of energy consumption

world energy consumption by fuel

quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

liquids

(including biofuels)

renewables

(excluding biofuels)

natural gas

coal

nuclear

History Projections 2010

34%

28%

22%

11%

5%

28%

27%

23%

7%

15%

share of

world total



World coal production

billion short tons

Note: Indonesia accounted for 72 percent of the total coal production in Other non-OECD Asia in 2010, rising from 52

percent in 2000. Throughout the projection period, Indonesia continues dominating the region's coal production.

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013, Reference case

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

other non-OECD Asia Australia

United States

China

world total

India



Non-OPEC petroleum and other liquids production



Russia

United States

China

Brazil

rest of non-OECD


September 21, 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Canada

rest of OECD

19

World net hydropower and other renewable electricity generation

trillion killowatthours


China

rest of OECD

Canada

United States 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Brazil

India

rest of non-OECD



World net nuclear electricity generation

trillion killowatthours


Russia

OECD Europe

other Asia

Japan

United States

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

India

rest of world

China



World natural gas production

trillion cubic feet

MENA

Russia

rest of OECD

Canada

United States

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

China

rest of non-OECD

Note: The MENA region consists of the Middle East and North Africa countries




For more information

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state

Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

International Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/beta/international/?src=home-b1



http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/steo

http://www.eia.gov/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/mer

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

http://www.eia.gov/state

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

Documents

Global energy markets - Energy Information Administration · Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 0 5 10 15 20 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 Tight