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The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and
Current Status
Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP
11 June 2012
Outline
• Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
• Summary
• Climatology
Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days
Below-normal rainfall has been observed over much of southern and eastern Mexico during the past week.
Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days
Below-normal rainfall has been observed over much of eastern and southern Mexico during the past 30 days.
Recent Evolution: Rainfall
NCEP/GFS Forecast
Below-normal precipitations are predicted over most of Mexico for both week 1 (11-17 June) and week 2 (18-24 June).
Summary
• Below-normal rainfall has been observed over much of southern and eastern Mexico during the past week.
• The NCEP GFS forecasts below-normal precipitations over most of Mexico for both week 1 (11-17 June) and week 2 (18-24 June).
ClimatologyMONSOON ONSET
June 5
June 6June 6
June 8June 7
June 14June 14
June 17June 16
June 23
June 27June 25June 29
July 3July 6July 11
July 7July 8July 13
July 9July 13July 14
June 10June 11
June 22June 21
Higgins, R. W., Y. Chen and A. V. Douglas, 1999: Interannual Variability of the North American Warm Season Precipitation Regime. J. Clim, 17, 653-680
Precipitation ClimatologyPrecipitation Climatology
