THE NOMINATION SYSTEM

• Primaries- proportional rules

• Conventions – now a formality

• Importance of money

• Who will be Hillary’s opponent?

PRIMARY AND CAUCUS TIMETABLE

3rd January - Iowa caucus22nd january - New Hampshire primary29th January - Florida & S. Carolina primary (S. Carolina D.s only)5th February - Alabama, Arkansas, California,

Colorado, Conn., Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New mexico, New York, Okl., Tenn., Utah, kansas primaries and caucuses

THE FRONT RUNNERS

• Republican Average (of all polls, November 07) Giuliani 28.9% +12.6% Thompson 16.3 McCain 15.1 Romney 11.3 Huckabee 7.7

• Democratic Average (of all polls, November 07) Clinton 44% + 21% Obama 23 Edwards 12.3

National and early primary poll leads

National Giuliani+12.6 Clinton+ 21.0

Iowa Romney+13.5

Clinton+ 7.2

New Hampshire

Romney+ 8.0 Clinton+19.2

South Carolina

Romney+ 0.3 Clinton+15.0

Florida Giuliani+ 10.8 Clinton+26.5

Hillary’s advantages and disadvantages

• Party identification

A less conservative country?

Hillary’s prospects

• But she is hated by the right

• ‘Swing’ states favour her – New Mexico, Ohio, Florida – demographics, economy

• She would face toughest opposition from Giuliani – he has a slight edge in polls and moral issues may be declining in importance

• Running mates could be important

PRESIDENT AND CONGRESS

• 1. Constitutional position conflict points in presidents’ areas - the veto – pocket, line item - appointment power - treaty power - war powers

• Conflict points in ‘shared’ areas - chief legislator (Article 2 Section 3) ‘He Shall from to time give to Congress information of the state of the

Union and recommend to their consideration such measures as shall

be necessary and expedient’

- impoundment - chief executive – executive privilege - war powers and commander in chief

• 3. Presidential Congressional agendas From FDR to Bush43 - New Deal - Fair Deal - Eisenhower’s interregnum - Kennedy’s New Frontier - LBJ’s Great Society - Nixon, Ford and Carter – rudderless agendas - Reagan and Reaganomics - Bush 41, Clinton and Bush 43 also rudderless - Obama’s cautious approach• 4. Importance of recent changes - decline of the New Deal Coalition - rise of ‘new style’ politics post 1974 - rise of partisanship and the decline of legislative deliberation

PRESIDENTIAL LEADERSHIPand the abuse of presidential power• 1. An elusive concept - the man, the times, the institutional environment• 2. History of Study of Presidential - leadership from Rossiter’s list - role determined v. role determining individuals - role conflict situations - Kellerman’s leader and follower analysis

• 3. Critiquing Neustadt

- effective management v. the public

interest

- By pass strategies and the abuse of

presidential power:

LBJ, RMN, RR, Bush 43

Is wartime different? What is wartime?

DWIGHT EISENHOWER• Dwight Eisenhower, 1953 – 1961• Background and upbringing• Context of 1952 Election – results DE 55.1% (442), AS 44.4% (89). Congress 213D 221R 47D 48R 1Independent• Appointments (9 millionaires and a plumber)• Policy coherence and ideological vision• The 1956 election – context and results DE 57.4% 457, AS 42% 73, Congress D234, R201, D49, R47

• Domestic record - McCarthyism - Civil rights and Little Rock - The economy – 1958 recession - Other domestic policy initiatives

• Foreign policy - Indo China settlement 1954 - Nuclear confrontation - Suez and Hungary, 1956 - Lebanon 1958 - Sputnik and the space race - The Cuban revolution - The U2 incident

• Legacy

- poorly regarded by historians at first

- Kept US out of foreign wars

- Represented a ‘benign’ period in US

history

- Last non-partisan and non plebiscitary

presidents

Lyndon Baines Johnson

• 1. Background and upbringing

• 2. Circumstances of accession/election

• 3. 1964 Results LBJ 61% (486), BG 39%

(52). Congress D247,64; R 187,36

• 4. Appointments

• 5. Style of leadership - vision and policy

coherence

• 6. Domestic policy - 1964 Civil rights - 1964 Equal Opportunity Act – EEOC - 1964 Food stamps - 1965 Medicare/Medicaid, Voting Rights Act - 1966 Model Cities, creations of HUD - 1968 Housing Act, Civil Rights Act - environmental/ consumer protection legisaltion

• Urban riots, Watts 1965, Detroit 1967• The Economy• Assassination of MLK and Robert Kennedy7. Foreign policy Vietnam – Planning a Tragedy - structural factors, State department, domino theory - escalation - casualties - effects on US society

• 7. Legacy

- US self esteem and reputation abroad

- Advances in Civil Rights, beginning of

end for the old South

- End of benign era in US politics

- Personality and suitability for the

Presidency – role of criticism

Word on Ford

• 1. Upbringing and Context of accession 1974 mid term (Watergate babes) D291-R144 (+43), 61-38 (+3)• 2. Domestic policy - failed energy bill - unemployment and global dislocation - hostile Congress- vetoes (66 vetoes, 12 overrides• 3. Foreign policy - no covert aid to Angola - fall of S. Vietnam - Mayaguez incident• 4. – Style, Vision and Legacy

Jimmy Carter• 1. Background and upbringing• 2. Context of election, Carter 50.1% (297), Ford 48.0 (240) Congress 292 Ds, 143Rs; 62-38 Mid term 277-158; 59-41• 3. Appointments• 4. Style/vision and policy coherence – do what is right not what is expedient. A ‘religious engineer’• 5. Domestic policy - welfare reform - energy policy - urban policy - civil service reform - OIRA - global crisis from late 1979 – the economy and the budget

1976 Election Results

• 6. Foreign policy

- human rights

- Panama canal Treat

- Camp David Accords

- Soviet Union – SALT II & Afghanistan

- Iranian hostage crisis

• 7. Legacy

- not suited to Presidency

- decline of US in World

- discrediting of Great Society – value/

regime shift

- good after his presidency

Ronald Reagan

• 1. background and upbringing

• 2. Context of election

RR51% (489); JC 41% (49)

Congress D 243 (-33) R 192

D 47 (-12) D 53

Re-alignment ? But mid term

D 269 (+26) R 166

D 46 (0) R 54

1980 election results

• 3. - Appointments and transition

4. - Leadership and management style

5. - Policy coherence and vision

6. Domestic policy

• - 1981 budget and tax cuts - the economy and the deficit - PATCO - Deregulation and politicization - Supreme Court - 1984 Election RR 59% (525) WM 41% (13) Congress D 253 (-14) R 182 D 47 (-2) R 53 Mid term D 258 (+5) R 177; D55-45 -8

1984 election results

7. Foreign policy

-The Reagan Doctrine - Lebanon 83 - Grenada 83 - Central America and the Boland Amend. - Pershing and Cruise v SS20s - Reykjavik and détente - Bombing of Libya 86 - South African Sanctions - The Iran Contra- affair

8. Legacy

- Change in domestic policy direction

- Politicization

- Management legacy

- Reagan Doctrine and end of Cold War

- A ‘model’ Republican

President and selective recall?

George W Bush, 1989-1993

• 1. Background and upbringing• 2. Context of election

Willie Horton affair, Dukakis character

RR legacy

Bush 426 (53.4%); Dukakis, 111 (45.6)

Congress D 260 R 175, D55, R 45

( mid term Ds +9, +1) • 3. Appointments• 4. Ideology/vision, coherence of policy

• 5.Domestic policy - Public service ethos - capital gains failure - social security taxes ‘read my lips’ - Savings and loans and the deficits - Disability Act - Clean Air Act - War on drugs - 1992 recession - conservatives and the moral issue

• 6. Foreign Policy

- End of Cold War and the New World

Order

- Panama

- Desert Storm

• 7. Legacy

- Unfinished Reagan agenda – fuel for

the Neo-cons

- No real domestic agenda

- First post-Cold War president

- Dynasty in the making

BILL CLINTON

• 1. Background and upbringing• 2. Context of Election

BC 370 (43%)

GB 168 (38%)

Perot 0 (19%)

Congress D 258 (+10), R 178; 57 33

(no change)• 3. Appointments• 4. Style, vision, coherence of policy

• 5. Domestic policy - tax changes - Economic stimulus - Campaign finance reform - Health care reform - the environment - Education – vouchers, faith based subsidies - post 94 changes Ds 203 (-53) Rs 231; Senate D48 (-5) R52

• Second Term

Results 1996 BC 379 (49.2%)

BD 159 (40.7%)

Perot 0 (8.4%)

Congress Ds 207 (+9) Rs 227

45 (-2) 55

TANF (1996)

Lewinsky and impeachment

• 6 Foreign policy

- Bosnia

- Kosovo

- terrorism – Afghanistan and Sudan

- Foreign economic policy

• Legacy

- Politicization and impeachment

- Lessons for the neo-cons

- Campaigning not governing

- Hillary Clinton

Barack Obama

• Background/upbringing

Honolulu, 1961, mother academic (w. class, Kansas background). Father,

Kenyan visiting university. Two year

marriage. 2nd marriage to Indonesian –

in Indo. as child but returned to Hawaii

to live with grandmum. Good scholar,

Occidental, Columbia (poli sci), harvard Law,

Community work Chicago, Michelle.

Illinois state Senate, then US Senate 2004

Senate record – patchy, liberal at first, cautious on foreign policy

• Context of election, banking collapse• Results: Electoral vote 365 173• Popular vote 69,456,897

McCain, 59,934,814

Percentage 52.9%, 45.7%

Congress 233D 202R (Ds -3)

59D-41R (Ds + 8)• Mid term 242R 193D Ds-63 Senate 53D

47R (-6)

2008 presidential election

• Appointments

Clinton, Gates, Geithner, Napolitano,

Holder, Emmanuel, Jones, Axelrod

• Vision and coherence of policy –

‘Yes we can….’ but…

management style Jury out, but….

Larry Summers (ex Treasury Sec and NEC Chair)

• “He will basically take the attitude if you’re his financial advisor, that if you can’t — it’s up to you to figure out whether preferred stock or subordinated debt is the appropriate financial instrument for your bailout, and that if he doesn’t trust you to figure it out, he’ll get a new financial adviser,”

• A real CEO does not do this. A decision like that is too important, too fundamental and has too many implications to just delegate to staff. Said another way, Obama, not having ever run anything, is simply a process oriented guy prancing about looking Presidential, but with little substance. He’s represents everything wrong in large corporate when the “pretty guy” gets promoted beyond his capabilities.

• Its actually kind of funny. The left usually hates all things “corporate,” but Obama is the quintessential large corporate, opportunistic man. But they are blinded.

• I never liked Clinton, for a number of reasons. But as god is my witness, I’d take him back over this zero in a heartbeat.

Domestic policy

• Banking crisis and the stimulus – American Recovery and Re-investment Act, 2009

• Tax relief, Unemployment ins. And job creation Act 2010

• Health care reform

• Don’t Ask don’t tell repeal

• Wall street reform and consumer protection Act 2010

• Budget Control Act 2011 – raised debt ceiling in

exchange for $1.2 tr cuts by super-committee. Latter

failed Nov 2011. Automatic cuts 2013

• Supreme Court appointments Sotomayor, Kagan

• The deficit and taxes

2009 stimulus package - $787 billion

Foreign Policy

• Afghanistan withdrawal by 2014

• Iraq – continuing wind down over 16 months

• Iran and North Korea

• Guantanamo Bay – failure to close

• Human rights policy, neo-cons and realism

Legacy?

• First African American president

• Polarized America