1
the reviews and assembled each issue. Over the years David Thomas and Dalton West served with distinction for long stretches, but Judith Fontaine and I stayed the whole course and are still on board. Campuses on the Mall To reach beyond the NISC membership and into the community, NISC conducted two programs for members of the Smithsonian Institution’s Campus on the Mall. In fall 1990, Samuel Halpern and his associates cov- ered the topic “International Espionage in a Changing World.” The next year, the second in this series was chaired by Ray Cline, whose speakers addressed the topic “From Spies to Satellites: Intelligence Gathering and Covert Operations for a New World Order.” Each year the program featured eight presen- tations by former intelligence professionals and scholars on the latest developments and the public debates surrounding those develop- ments. More than 200 persons attended each night for a period of about one month. FILS under New Management NISC edited and published FILS under its auspices until the end of 1993, when Heldref Publications assumed ownership and contin- ued it under the name World Intelligence Review (WIR). In spring 1997 Heldref announced that WIR would be included in its History: Reviews of New Books, a quarterly journal now in its twenty-sixth year. WIR appears for the first time in this fall issue of History. The members of NISC look forward to joining this publication with its larger, well-established readership. NOTE NISC encourages contributions to WIR by former intelligence professionals, scholars, students, or informed laypersons. Submissions should be made to NISC, c/o SET, Inc., 2007 North 15th Street, Suite 7, Arlington, Virginia 22201. MARJORIE W. CLINE is the editor of World Intel- ligence Review. Weinberger, Caspar, and Peter Schweizer The Next War Washington, DC: Regnery Publishing 470 pp.. $27.50, 1996 In The Next War, former secretary of defense Caspar Weinberger and Peter Schweizer have made a very worthwhile attempt to alert Americans to threats to the nation’s security. The authors attack President Bill Clinton’s foreign, defense, and intelligence policies, which they believe could lead to nuclear war in the future (xvi-xvii, xx-xxii). The authors’ method is to present five “lit- erary war games” indicative of the threats that the United States may soon face. These sce- narios include the likely capabilities and intentions of the aggressor, the events leading up to enemy action, American vulnerabilities in each situation, and the possible outcome. The narratives woven around these scenarios can grab the interest of the reader in a way that a computer program never could. The first of the threats is a simultaneous attack by North Korea, aided by China, on South Korea and a Chinese assault on Taiwan. In both cases the goal is to secure what the political elites of these Communist nations consider to be their own territory. American vulnerabilities in East Asia include a lack of troops in the area (70), not enough ammuni- tion and spare parts, and the lack of a theater missile defense system to defend such allies as Japan and South Korea (96). The second threat is an Iranian attack on Bahrain and a subsequent attempt to drive U.S. forces from the Persian Gulf region through use of nuclear weapons (1 11). Iran’s goal in this initiative would be to gain control of the major part of the world’s oil reserves, thus obtaining the ability to strangle the West economically (1 19). In view of Iran’s recent build-up in missiles and possible acquisition of nuclear weapons, the authors’ scenario is certainly credible. American vulnerabilities cited in that region are a lack of human intelligence, the Ameri- can inability to locate all of Iran’s mobile launchers (143), and the probable presence of terrorists among the large number of Iranian immigrants in this country. The three other potential threats to U.S. security are Russian acquisition of an antibal- listic missile system (ABM) (223); millions of Mexicans streaming into the United States in a relatively short period of time (171); and a resurgence of Japanese nationalism and conquest in the Pacific to acquire adequate resources and markets in a new Co-Prosperi- ty Sphere (317). The presentation of these threats brings forth an outline of other American vulnerabil- ities, such as the failure to develop and deploy an adequate strategic ABM system, lack of an effective intelligence system operating in Mexico, and a fleet decimated by a reduced defense budget. Although this book, along with other simi- lar works, can alert the American public to the “present danger,” we must ask if it can affect the American tendency to disarm after each war, content that we once more have a safe environment. Can Secretary Weinberger, or anyone else, persuade American politicians and public that threats to national security will always be part of our existence and that American vulnerabilities may invite aggres- sion from cultures with vastly different values and perspectives from our own? KENNETH J. CAMPBELL is a retired professor whose research focuses on intelligence. He teaches at the American Military University. Wolf, Markus, with Anne McElvoy Man Without a Face: The Autobiography of Communism’s Greatest Spymaster New York: Times Books 365 pp.. $25.00, 1997 “Who’s Afraid of Markus Wolf?” asked Peter Bemstein, publisher of Times Books, in a New York Times op ed piece of 17 June 1997.‘ Bernstein wrote to express his indignation that one of his authors, former head of the East German foreign intelligence service Markus Wolf, was denied a visa to promote his memoirs, published, of course, by Times Books, in the United States. The State Department’s reason for the denial, as given by spokesman Nicholas Bums, stated that it would be inexcusable to grant a visa to “someone who spent his entire career as an opponent of free Germany, West Germany, as an opponent of the German people, and someone who is anti-American and trying to bring down our government and sponsor ter- rorist attacks against US."^ Bemstein made the point that Yasir Arafat was welcomed at the White House and Mikhail Gorbachev and for- mer KGB officer Vadim Kirpichenko were allowed into the country; why not In an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer; Markus Wolf added to the precedent by not- ing that Sinn Fein politician Gerry A d a m got a visa, as did General Oleg Kalugin, the for- mer chief of KGB foreign counterintelli- gence! Yuri Skujins, in a letter to the editor of the New York Times, responded to the Arafat charge by pointing out that “Mr. Arafat was invited to the United States only after he underwent a personal and political transfor- mation.” Adding to the controversy, also in the Emes, Richard Goldman wrote that “Mr. Wolf was in the business of butchery as Deputy Minister of East Germany’s State Security” and should be kept out on that basis alone: The most bizarre remark on the issue came from Mark Kurzmann, a former “national security litigator” at the Justice Department, when Philip Agee was denied his passport. In his letter to the Times, Kurzmann wrote that the denial of Wolf’s visa is analogous to the case of the “dissident former agent” of the CIA, Philip Agee, who was “barred from retuming home to promote his book.”6 This statement, of course, is nonsense. Agee was a former CIA staff employee, not an agent. He was an agent, according to General Kalugin, only for the Cubans and the KGB, from whom he received money for his services. Furthermore, Agee, an American citizen at the time, had a passport and could have returned to the United States any time to pro- mote his first booke7 What really concerned Agee, as he makes very clear in his second book, On the Run, was his threatened arrest should he do so. Finally, Agee, using third- party passports, has since returned to the United States on many occasions to promote his books and attack the CIA. Fall 1997 47

The Next War

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the reviews and assembled each issue. Over the years David Thomas and Dalton West served with distinction for long stretches, but Judith Fontaine and I stayed the whole course and are still on board.

Campuses on the Mall To reach beyond the NISC membership

and into the community, NISC conducted two programs for members of the Smithsonian Institution’s Campus on the Mall. In fall 1990, Samuel Halpern and his associates cov- ered the topic “International Espionage in a Changing World.” The next year, the second in this series was chaired by Ray Cline, whose speakers addressed the topic “From Spies to Satellites: Intelligence Gathering and Covert Operations for a New World Order.” Each year the program featured eight presen- tations by former intelligence professionals and scholars on the latest developments and the public debates surrounding those develop- ments. More than 200 persons attended each night for a period of about one month.

FILS under New Management NISC edited and published FILS under its

auspices until the end of 1993, when Heldref Publications assumed ownership and contin- ued it under the name World Intelligence Review (WIR). In spring 1997 Heldref announced that WIR would be included in its History: Reviews of New Books, a quarterly journal now in its twenty-sixth year. WIR appears for the first time in this fall issue of History. The members of NISC look forward to joining this publication with its larger, well-established readership.

NOTE NISC encourages contributions to WIR by former intelligence professionals, scholars, students, or informed laypersons. Submissions should be made to NISC, c/o SET, Inc., 2007 North 15th Street, Suite 7, Arlington, Virginia 22201.

MARJORIE W. CLINE is the editor of World Intel- ligence Review.

Weinberger, Caspar, and Peter Schweizer The Next War Washington, DC: Regnery Publishing 470 pp.. $27.50, 1996

In The Next War, former secretary of defense Caspar Weinberger and Peter Schweizer have made a very worthwhile attempt to alert Americans to threats to the nation’s security. The authors attack President Bill Clinton’s foreign, defense, and intelligence policies, which they believe could lead to nuclear war in the future (xvi-xvii, xx-xxii).

The authors’ method is to present five “lit- erary war games” indicative of the threats that the United States may soon face. These sce- narios include the likely capabilities and intentions of the aggressor, the events leading up to enemy action, American vulnerabilities

in each situation, and the possible outcome. The narratives woven around these scenarios can grab the interest of the reader in a way that a computer program never could.

The first of the threats is a simultaneous attack by North Korea, aided by China, on South Korea and a Chinese assault on Taiwan. In both cases the goal is to secure what the political elites of these Communist nations consider to be their own territory. American vulnerabilities in East Asia include a lack of troops in the area (70), not enough ammuni- tion and spare parts, and the lack of a theater missile defense system to defend such allies as Japan and South Korea (96).

The second threat is an Iranian attack on Bahrain and a subsequent attempt to drive U.S. forces from the Persian Gulf region through use of nuclear weapons (1 11). Iran’s goal in this initiative would be to gain control of the major part of the world’s oil reserves, thus obtaining the ability to strangle the West economically (1 19).

In view of Iran’s recent build-up in missiles and possible acquisition of nuclear weapons, the authors’ scenario is certainly credible. American vulnerabilities cited in that region are a lack of human intelligence, the Ameri- can inability to locate all of Iran’s mobile launchers (143), and the probable presence of terrorists among the large number of Iranian immigrants in this country.

The three other potential threats to U.S. security are Russian acquisition of an antibal- listic missile system (ABM) (223); millions of Mexicans streaming into the United States in a relatively short period of time (171); and a resurgence of Japanese nationalism and conquest in the Pacific to acquire adequate resources and markets in a new Co-Prosperi- ty Sphere (317).

The presentation of these threats brings forth an outline of other American vulnerabil- ities, such as the failure to develop and deploy an adequate strategic ABM system, lack of an effective intelligence system operating in Mexico, and a fleet decimated by a reduced defense budget.

Although this book, along with other simi- lar works, can alert the American public to the “present danger,” we must ask if it can affect the American tendency to disarm after each war, content that we once more have a safe environment. Can Secretary Weinberger, or anyone else, persuade American politicians and public that threats to national security will always be part of our existence and that American vulnerabilities may invite aggres- sion from cultures with vastly different values and perspectives from our own?

KENNETH J. CAMPBELL is a retired professor whose research focuses on intelligence. He teaches at the American Military University.

Wolf, Markus, with Anne McElvoy Man Without a Face: The Autobiography of Communism’s Greatest Spymaster New York: Times Books 365 pp.. $25.00, 1997

“Who’s Afraid of Markus Wolf?” asked Peter Bemstein, publisher of Times Books, in a New York Times op ed piece of 17 June 1997.‘ Bernstein wrote to express his indignation that one of his authors, former head of the East German foreign intelligence service Markus Wolf, was denied a visa to promote his memoirs, published, of course, by Times Books, in the United States. The State Department’s reason for the denial, as given by spokesman Nicholas Bums, stated that it would be inexcusable to grant a visa to “someone who spent his entire career as an opponent of free Germany, West Germany, as an opponent of the German people, and someone who is anti-American and trying to bring down our government and sponsor ter- rorist attacks against US."^ Bemstein made the point that Yasir Arafat was welcomed at the White House and Mikhail Gorbachev and for- mer KGB officer Vadim Kirpichenko were allowed into the country; why not In an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer; Markus Wolf added to the precedent by not- ing that Sinn Fein politician Gerry A d a m got a visa, as did General Oleg Kalugin, the for- mer chief of KGB foreign counterintelli- gence!

Yuri Skujins, in a letter to the editor of the New York Times, responded to the Arafat charge by pointing out that “Mr. Arafat was invited to the United States only after he underwent a personal and political transfor- mation.” Adding to the controversy, also in the Emes, Richard Goldman wrote that “Mr. Wolf was in the business of butchery as Deputy Minister of East Germany’s State Security” and should be kept out on that basis alone:

The most bizarre remark on the issue came from Mark Kurzmann, a former “national security litigator” at the Justice Department, when Philip Agee was denied his passport. In his letter to the Times, Kurzmann wrote that the denial of Wolf’s visa is analogous to the case of the “dissident former agent” of the CIA, Philip Agee, who was “barred from retuming home to promote his book.”6 This statement, of course, is nonsense. Agee was a former CIA staff employee, not an agent. He was an agent, according to General Kalugin, only for the Cubans and the KGB, from whom he received money for his services. Furthermore, Agee, an American citizen at the time, had a passport and could have returned to the United States any time to pro- mote his first booke7 What really concerned Agee, as he makes very clear in his second book, On the Run, was his threatened arrest should he do so. Finally, Agee, using third- party passports, has since returned to the United States on many occasions to promote his books and attack the CIA.

Fall 1997 47