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The next few decades would be the India story We are the protagonists - unfolding this play

The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

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Page 1: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

The next few decades would be the India story

We are the protagonists - unfolding this play

Page 2: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

Over the next 10 years• India will continue to add to her steel

making capacities

• Japan will be overtaken within 2015-16

• Even the most conservative estimates

aim at a whooping 3 fold increase from

current levels

• India’s growth is demand led as

opposed to export fed

• The growth will be much stable and less

susceptible to external conditions…

Page 3: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

Per capita consumption of steel

• India 2001 – 26.8 kg

• India 2008 – 50.4 kg

• Germany – 464.4 kg

• USA – 353.9 kg

• China – 307.3 kg

• Brazil – 114.6 kg

• World average – 194.2 kg

India drags the current World average down from 230 to 194 kg

Page 4: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

The New Era of steel making dawned in 1947

India had three units

Two of them in the Private Sector (TISCO & IISCO)

Total Capacity 1 million tons

Page 5: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

China too had almost similar capacities …

(one million ton in 1949)

Page 6: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

It took China 47 years

to commission its first 100 million tons of steel capacity

5 years to commission the next 100 million tons

And

A mere two years to score its triple hundred.

The rest is history!

Page 7: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

India has Law

China has Order

While

Australia has both Law & Order

Page 8: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China
Page 9: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

Coal – supply trails the ever

increasing demand

Coal Demand

by various

sectors

Figs in

million

tonnes

Power Steel &

Sponge

Iron

Cement Others Total

Demand

2003 275 24 16 35 350

2007 332 31 19 60 442

2012 E 534 83 56 62 735

2015 E 810 107 66 74 1057

CAGR

12-15 E

14.9% 8.8% 5.6% 6.1% 12.9%

Widening Demand

Supply Gap in Million

Tonnes

Source: E&Y reports

Page 10: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

Iron & Steel - The current decade belongs to India

India projected to be the fastest growing market while growth in China would be tapering in coming years

NAFTA EU 27 Japan CIS China India World

% Share (2011) 9% 11% 5% 4% 45% 5% -

% Share (2015) 9% 12% 4% 4% 42% 6% -

% Share (2020) 8% 11% 4% 5% 39% 7% -

% Growth (2011/2010) 8% 6% -1% 4% 14% 11% 5%

% CAGR (2011-2015) 4% 7% 4% 3% 9% 6% 5%

% CAGR (2015 -2020) 3% 2% 1% 2% 7% 6% 3%

Page 11: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

India’s domestic coking coal scenario• Although India has large coal reserves it is very short of

prime HCC

• Domestic Coking coal is:-

o High ash

o Tends to have poor coke strength

o Requires imported high quality HCC

o Not really suitable for PCI

• Production of domestic coking coal has declined since 2004

• Coke production has risen by almost 30% since 2004 and is

poised to grow further

The future of India’s coking coal is Imports

Page 12: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

FORECAST OF INDIAN COKING COAL IMPORT( IN MT)

Source: various reports and internal estimates

Page 13: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

Major Coking Coal Supplying Countries to India

Source: ISMW

Page 14: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

For India some new producers are closer –but other bottlenecks make them unviable

Major seaborne supply basin

Major prospective supply basin

Major domestic supply basin

Tavan Tolgoi,

Mongolia

Shanxi, China

Indonesia

Central

Kalimantan

Bowen Basin

Mozambique

Tete/Moatize

Appalachia

Western Canada

East Siberia Elga

Russia Kuzbass

Australia keeps an advantage over other current / developing basins. Indonesia & Mozambique

though have geographic proximity advantages, but quality, infrastructure and steady availability

are much bigger questions

9000nm

5500nm

5000nm4000nm

6500nm 6000nm

2500nm

13000nm

Page 15: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

AustraliaHas all the coking coal that INDIA Needs

- Huge potentials- Short termBottlenecksnotwithstanding

Page 16: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

Advantage Australia :India – Australia relationship

Democratic traditions

Shared commonwealth traditions

English speaking population

Strong, stable Government where Rule of Law

prevails

Industry friendly, proactive bureaucracy

Page 17: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

We came

here to

procure raw

materials

Identified the

immense

potential

I Stayed Back

to become a

proud

“Indian

Australian”

Page 18: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

GUJARAT NRE COKING COAL LTD OVERVIEW

ASX listed hard coking coal producer

100% owner of two underground mines in NSW, Australia

» NRE No. 1 & NRE Wongawilli

JORC reserves of 125 Mt and resources of 651Mt

Majority of ROM coal sold under contract to major shareholder (Gujarat NRE Coke)

» Commercial terms based on market formula

Targeting to increase ROM production to 6.0MTPA over the next 4 years from current level of over 1.5 MTPA

Wollongong

Kiama

Port Kembla

Port Kembla coal

loader 18 MtpaSutton

Forest

proposal

Berrima

Dendrobium

W. TahmoorAppin

Westcliff Northcliff

Southern

Coalfield

NRE No. 1

NRE WONGAWILLI

BHP Illawarra

Coal

Peabody

Metropolitan

Xstrata

Tahmoor

Page 19: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

BABY’S DAY OUT:Longwall Mini Build Open Day at our Mine Site

Page 20: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

WE ALSO MINE COAL –HARD COKING COAL

Page 21: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

Gujarat NRE Coke Ltd Largest independent producer of Metallurgical Coke

in India

Met Coke capacity 1.434 MT, being increased to 4 MTby 2015.

The 1st Indian Company to have exported Met Cokefrom India and has a continuous export order book

Rated one of the top 10 company by 10-years profitperformance issued by Business Today on India’sMost Valuable Companies (Nov 2009 edition)

62

Page 22: The next few decades would be the India story from MiningRoundtable_27 Oct 2… · •India 2001 –26.8 kg •India 2008 –50.4 kg •Germany –464.4 kg •USA –353.9 kg •China

THANK YOU

Arun Kumar JagatramkaExecutive Chairman

Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited