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The next few decades would be the India story
We are the protagonists - unfolding this play
Over the next 10 years• India will continue to add to her steel
making capacities
• Japan will be overtaken within 2015-16
• Even the most conservative estimates
aim at a whooping 3 fold increase from
current levels
• India’s growth is demand led as
opposed to export fed
• The growth will be much stable and less
susceptible to external conditions…
Per capita consumption of steel
• India 2001 – 26.8 kg
• India 2008 – 50.4 kg
• Germany – 464.4 kg
• USA – 353.9 kg
• China – 307.3 kg
• Brazil – 114.6 kg
• World average – 194.2 kg
India drags the current World average down from 230 to 194 kg
The New Era of steel making dawned in 1947
India had three units
Two of them in the Private Sector (TISCO & IISCO)
Total Capacity 1 million tons
China too had almost similar capacities …
(one million ton in 1949)
It took China 47 years
to commission its first 100 million tons of steel capacity
5 years to commission the next 100 million tons
And
A mere two years to score its triple hundred.
The rest is history!
India has Law
China has Order
While
Australia has both Law & Order
Coal – supply trails the ever
increasing demand
Coal Demand
by various
sectors
Figs in
million
tonnes
Power Steel &
Sponge
Iron
Cement Others Total
Demand
2003 275 24 16 35 350
2007 332 31 19 60 442
2012 E 534 83 56 62 735
2015 E 810 107 66 74 1057
CAGR
12-15 E
14.9% 8.8% 5.6% 6.1% 12.9%
Widening Demand
Supply Gap in Million
Tonnes
Source: E&Y reports
Iron & Steel - The current decade belongs to India
India projected to be the fastest growing market while growth in China would be tapering in coming years
NAFTA EU 27 Japan CIS China India World
% Share (2011) 9% 11% 5% 4% 45% 5% -
% Share (2015) 9% 12% 4% 4% 42% 6% -
% Share (2020) 8% 11% 4% 5% 39% 7% -
% Growth (2011/2010) 8% 6% -1% 4% 14% 11% 5%
% CAGR (2011-2015) 4% 7% 4% 3% 9% 6% 5%
% CAGR (2015 -2020) 3% 2% 1% 2% 7% 6% 3%
India’s domestic coking coal scenario• Although India has large coal reserves it is very short of
prime HCC
• Domestic Coking coal is:-
o High ash
o Tends to have poor coke strength
o Requires imported high quality HCC
o Not really suitable for PCI
• Production of domestic coking coal has declined since 2004
• Coke production has risen by almost 30% since 2004 and is
poised to grow further
The future of India’s coking coal is Imports
FORECAST OF INDIAN COKING COAL IMPORT( IN MT)
Source: various reports and internal estimates
Major Coking Coal Supplying Countries to India
Source: ISMW
For India some new producers are closer –but other bottlenecks make them unviable
Major seaborne supply basin
Major prospective supply basin
Major domestic supply basin
Tavan Tolgoi,
Mongolia
Shanxi, China
Indonesia
Central
Kalimantan
Bowen Basin
Mozambique
Tete/Moatize
Appalachia
Western Canada
East Siberia Elga
Russia Kuzbass
Australia keeps an advantage over other current / developing basins. Indonesia & Mozambique
though have geographic proximity advantages, but quality, infrastructure and steady availability
are much bigger questions
9000nm
5500nm
5000nm4000nm
6500nm 6000nm
2500nm
13000nm
AustraliaHas all the coking coal that INDIA Needs
- Huge potentials- Short termBottlenecksnotwithstanding
Advantage Australia :India – Australia relationship
Democratic traditions
Shared commonwealth traditions
English speaking population
Strong, stable Government where Rule of Law
prevails
Industry friendly, proactive bureaucracy
We came
here to
procure raw
materials
Identified the
immense
potential
I Stayed Back
to become a
proud
“Indian
Australian”
GUJARAT NRE COKING COAL LTD OVERVIEW
ASX listed hard coking coal producer
100% owner of two underground mines in NSW, Australia
» NRE No. 1 & NRE Wongawilli
JORC reserves of 125 Mt and resources of 651Mt
Majority of ROM coal sold under contract to major shareholder (Gujarat NRE Coke)
» Commercial terms based on market formula
Targeting to increase ROM production to 6.0MTPA over the next 4 years from current level of over 1.5 MTPA
Wollongong
Kiama
Port Kembla
Port Kembla coal
loader 18 MtpaSutton
Forest
proposal
Berrima
Dendrobium
W. TahmoorAppin
Westcliff Northcliff
Southern
Coalfield
NRE No. 1
NRE WONGAWILLI
BHP Illawarra
Coal
Peabody
Metropolitan
Xstrata
Tahmoor
BABY’S DAY OUT:Longwall Mini Build Open Day at our Mine Site
WE ALSO MINE COAL –HARD COKING COAL
Gujarat NRE Coke Ltd Largest independent producer of Metallurgical Coke
in India
Met Coke capacity 1.434 MT, being increased to 4 MTby 2015.
The 1st Indian Company to have exported Met Cokefrom India and has a continuous export order book
Rated one of the top 10 company by 10-years profitperformance issued by Business Today on India’sMost Valuable Companies (Nov 2009 edition)
62
THANK YOU
Arun Kumar JagatramkaExecutive Chairman
Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited