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The New Political Landscape
Al FromFounder and Chief Executive Officer
Democratic Leadership Council
www.ndol.org
America’s Political Transformation
OVERVIEW
• The New Reality: Parties are at Parity• New Economy New Citizenry New Politics
• The New Democrat way is the politics of the future
• The path to a New Democrat majority
50 5050
49
50
49.3
47.9
49.5
46.547
47.548
48.549
49.550
50.5
President ElectoralVote
Senate House
Democrat Republican
Political ParityThe Two Parties Are at Near Equal Strength
Parties at ParityThe Reasons
• The New Economy is Driving a New Electorate
• The Political Arrangements that Shaped Politics in the Industrial Age are Collapsing
• A New Political Order Has Not Yet Taken Shape for the Information Era
The New Electorate
PERIOD DOMINANT VOTERS
Industrial Era Working Class----------------------------------------------------Information Age Rising Learning Class-----------------------------------------------------
38
32 34
23
8
28
47
26 24
18 16 12
1980 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Less than $30K More than $75K
Voters’ Family Incomes: 1980 to 2000
18
46
27
70
01020304050607080
WorkingClass
MiddleClass
UpperMid Class
OwnStock
An Affluent ElectorateCharacteristics of 2000 Voters
23
28
38
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1992 2000
Less Than $30K More Than $75K
The Clinton Years
32
53
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1992 2000
Family IncomesPercentage of families making more than $50K per year.
15 1429
6882
47
85 8672
3218
53
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Democrat Republican
Up The Income LadderPercentage of Electorate Won by Democrat
50
32
20
8
1825
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1992 1996 2000
Less than 30 K More than 75 K
Colorado Family Incomes
2541
52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1992 1996 2000
Colorado Family IncomesPercentage of Families Making More than 50 K Per Year
26
39
57
37
19
10
3640
31
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1992 1996 2000
Better Worse Same
Colorado Financial StatusCompared to Four Years Earlier
3342
61
74
01020304050607080
1980 2000
College Grads Some College
Educational Attainment
Percentage of voters with a college degree
The Vanishing Middle
Democrats: By Education Level 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 No HS +5 +3 +20 +26 +31 +20 HS Grad -12 -12 -3 +7 +16 -1 Some Col -8 -24 -15 +4 +8 -6 Col Grad -18 -26 -19 -2 -2 -6 Post Grad -8 -4 +1 +14 +12 +8
46 43
74 78
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1996 2000
College Grad Some College
Colorado Educational Attainment
8981
52
9 10 13
07
25
0 28
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 2000 2050 Projected
White Black Hispanic Asian
Diversity
84 81
5 29
14
1 20
10
203040
506070
8090
1992 2000
White Black Hispanic Asian
Colorado Diversity
0.88
0.71
0.05 0.070
0.14
00.06
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1980 2000
White Black Hispanic Asian
The Bellwether: CaliforniaThe Electorate is Becoming More Diverse
1
2
1
102018
1710
21
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cities Suburbs Rural
Democrat Republican Other
The Suburbs RuleIn 2000 Democrats Win Cities; Republicans Win
Suburbs and Rural Areas
7867
88
160
92
57
020406080
100120140160180
1973 Today
Urban Suburban Rural
The Suburban Swing
Congressional Seats
38.8
9.214.5 14.6
7.5
13.18.5
17.7
05
1015202530354045
1952 2000
Balt City Balt County PG County Montgomery
From City to SuburbPercentage of Statewide Vote
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 2000
Wired Workers
Percentage of Electorate
19900
15740048200 68400
100900
722500
289300
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
Total Const Manuf Ret Trade Fin. Ins.RE
Priv Sectservices
Fed-St-LocalGovt
Colorado: New Jobs 1991-2000In Thousands
26
64
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1996 2000
Internet UsersPercentage of Voters Who Regularly Use Internet
Generational Change
In the 2000 Election
• Less than 10 percent of the electorate will be New Deal Era voters.
• The dominant generations are the “skeptical generations” — the Baby Boomers, GenXers and GenYers.
40
30 3329
24 21 20 20
36
49 47 50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1992 1996 2000
Conservatives Liberals Moderates
Political Views
31 29
49
2531
46
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1996 2000
Conservative Liberal Moderate
The Colorado ElectoratePolitical Views
4038
4238 39 39
27
38
35353532
27 27
18
272627
0
10
20
30
40
50
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Democrat Republican Independent
Party Identification
Percentage of Voters
3430
353540
3631 29 29
05
1015202530354045
1992 1996 2000
Democrat Republican Independent
The Colorado Electorate
Party Identification
An Idea Based Coalition
Tackling America’s New Challenges
• The Next Progressive Majority will be built around ideas and values, not interest groups.
• The best government is the best politics. If we have good ideas that tend to the needs of ordinary Americans in their everyday lives, the politics will take care of itself.
The New Democrat Philosophy
America's Basic Bargain
• Opportunity for All• Responsibility from All • Community of All
Core Principles
The
New Democrat Philosophy
Opportunity & Growth Global Outlook
Empowering Government
Mutual ResponsibilityTraditional Values
12
52
34
12
50
35
15
53
30
14
54
28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Solve Problems Equip People Stay Out
1997 1998 1999 2000
Role of GovernmentWhat is the Proper Role of the Federal Government?
17
56
2416
60
2116
63
1819
55
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Social Programs Spur Growth Stay Out
1997 1998 1999 2000
Government and the EconomyWhat Role Should the Federal Government Play in the Economy?
Message Matters
If a candidate for President said this, would it have made youmuch more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, ormuch less likely to vote for them for President?Top Arguments Ranked by “Much more likely”
MuchMoreLikely
More/LessLikely
I want to change the tone in Washington – enough fighting. Instead ofpoint fingers and gridlock, I will find ways to work together in abipartisan manner to get things done for America.
46 79/15
I believe in an America that offers opportunity for all , demandsresponsibility from all, and fosters a community of all, with agovernment that equips all Americans with the tools they need foreconomic success.
41 78/15
I believe very deeply that you have to be willing to stand up and fightno matter what powerful forces might be on the other side – big oilcompanies, big polluters, big pharmaceutical companies, and bigtobacco. This election is about the people v. the powerful.
41 70/24
(All Voters)
Message MattersKey Voter Categories – Much More Likely
Gore Voters
Bush Voters
Bush Swing
Change the Tone 42 51 57 Opportunity for All 45 36 44People Vs. the Powerful 53 27 32
Missing the Mark
How Populism Failed with White Voters
Whites % Gore Bush <15K 5 49 46 15-30K 13 44 50 30-50K 24 42 55 50-75K 25 40 57 75-100K 15 42 55 100K+ 18 41 56
White Males White Females % Gore Bush % Gore Bush All 36 60 48 49 <15K 5 41 53 7 54 42 15-30K 13 37 57 16 49 45 30-50K 24 35 60 25 47 49 50-75K 25 35 61 25 44 54 75-100K 15 34 63 13 52 46 100K+ 18 34 62 14 48 50 Upper class 4 49 46 4 43 53 Upr Mid 27 34 60 31 45 54 Middle 47 38 59 49 48 50 Work/Low 22 35 62 17 48 49
National Democratic Margin
All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Men 48 +3 -1 -10 +9 Women 52 +8 +16 +11 +5 White Men 48 -3 -11 -24 +13 White Women 52 Even +5 -1 +6 White 81 -1 -3 -12 +9 Black 10 +73 +72 +81 -9 Hispanic 7 +36 +51 +27 +24
The White Vote
A Comparison of 1996 and 2000
National 1996 2000 96/2000 White Men -11 -24 +13 White Women +5 -1 +6 East White Men +6 -7 +13 White Women +21 +22 -1 Midwest White Men -6 -22 +16 White Women +9 +5 +4 South White Men -28 -43 +15 White Women -13 -30 +27 West White Men -12 -21 +9 White Women +8 +3 +5
National Democratic Margin
All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Married 65 -1 -2 -9 +7 No 35 +16 +19 -3 Married/Child 31 -15 No 69 +7 Work Woman 31 (29)+10 +21 +19 +2 No 69 +3 -8 +11 Gun Owner 48 -13 (37) -25 +12 No 52 +17 (63) +19 -2 Attend/Church More / Weekly 14 Regularly -27 Weekly 28 (42)-12 -17 Monthly 14 +5 Seldom 28 +12 Never 14 +29 Catholic 26 +9 +16 +3 +13 White Cath 25/whites +5 +7 -7 +14
National Democratic Margin
All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Abortion Always Lgl 23 (34)+38 (25)+48 +45 +3 Mostly Lgl 33 (29)+11 (35)+22 +20 +2 Mostly Illeg 27 (23)-30 (25)-25 -40 +15 Always Illeg 13 (9)-39 (12)-45 -52 +7 Liberal 20 +54 +67 +67 ---- Moderate 50 +16 +24 +8 +16 Conservative 29 -48 -51 -64 +13 Democrat 39 +67 +74 +75 -1 Republican 35 -63 -67 -83 +16 Independent 27 +6 +8 -2 +10 Govt. Should Do More 43 +44 (36) +52 (41) +51 +1 Do Less 53 -22 (55) -30 (52) -46 +16
Swing States GOP BaseDemo Base
The Swing States
Democratic Base
States Dems Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 California 54 55 Connecticut 8 7 Delaware 3 3 D.C. 3 3 Hawaii 4 4 Illinois 22 21 Iowa 7 7 Maine 4 4 Maryland 10 10 Mass 12 12 Michigan 18 17 Minnesota 10 10 New Jersey 15 15 N. Mexico 5 5 New York 33 31 Oregon 7 7 Penn 23 21 R. Island 4 4 Vermont 3 3 Washington 11 11 Wisconsin 11 10 Total 267 260
Republican Base
States Reps Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 Alabama 9 9 Alaska 3 3 Idaho 4 4 Indiana 12 11 Kansas 6 6 Mississippi 7 6 Nebraska 5 5 N. Car 14 15 N. Dakota 3 3 Oklahoma 8 7 S. Car 8 8 S. Dakota 3 3 Texas 32 34 Utah 5 5 Virginia 13 13 Wyoming 3 3 Total 135 135
In Play
States That Split 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 Arizona 8 10 Arkansas 6 6 Colorado 8 9 Florida 25 27 Georgia 13 15 Kentucky 8 8 Louisiana 9 9 Missouri 11 11 Montana 3 3 Nevada 4 5 N. Hamp 4 4 Ohio 21 20 Tennessee 11 11 W.Virginia 5 5 Total 136 143
Winning the Values Battle
Lessons From the Clinton Victories
• Promote Growth and Opportunity, Not Redistribution• Emphasize New Democrat Positions on Cultural Issues
Like Crime and Welfare• Stand for Big Ideas, Not Big Government• Support Family Friendly Policies that Help Parents
Raise Kids• Support a Strong National Defense• Avoid Polarizing Language on Divisive Issues Like
Abortion or Guns
Building a New Democratic Majority
• Expand Beyond the Democratic Base
• Men and Women
• Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic
• Urban and Suburban
• Moderates as well as Liberals
• Working Class and “Rising Learning Class”
A Progressive Coalition for the 21st Century