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The Mekong
2
The “ rice bowl ” of South East Asia!
Home to more than 20 M people!
Climate Change in the Mekong
• Salt intrusion, key to land use in VMD.
Subject to significant Salt Intrusion
The Mekong Deltaic System
2016
Climate Change in the Mekong
2015 for 2050
Kratie
My Thuan
Fresh water
inflow?
Tidal Signal
Within the
delta?
Ocean Forces?
Binh Dai
Hung My
• Salt intrusion
• Higher WL & city flooding
• Bank erosion
𝑻𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒍 𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒗𝒆𝒍 𝒔𝒑𝒆𝒆𝒅
= 𝒈 × 𝒅𝒆𝒑𝒕𝒉
On average:~2-3m deeper channels
Eslami et al. (2019)
Recently validated by
Vasilopoulos et al. (2020)
Examples of bed level changes
Eslami et al. (2019)
Climate Change in the Mekong
Environmental
5-10%
• Salt intrusion
• Higher tides
• City flooding
• Bank erosion
Integrated approach
Coastal - Inland
Upstream - Downstream
Surface water - Groundwater
Climate Change - Anthropogenic
Subsidence
Erosion
Upstream Discharge
Downstream SLR
DFlow-FM
numerical domain
3D Groundwater and Geological Modelling
15
Source: Minderhoud et. al (2017)
3D Surface water modelling
Eslami et. al (in prep. 2020)
Environmental pathways
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Extent of salt intrusion in the delta
Eslami et al. (2021a & b)
“Projections of salt intrusion in a mega-delta under climatic and
anthropogenic stressors “, Nature Communications Earth & Env.
@Sepehr_eslami