The MDG Campaign and the Environment: A Progress Report

• A Snapshot of Progress Towards the MDGs

• Environment and the MDGs: Challenges and Proposals

• Millennium Project: Emerging Recommendations

• Planning for the 2005 MDG Review

Charles McNeill, UNDP3 November 2004

Are we on track for MDGs?1. Progress continued in the 1990s

2. But it slowed down (relative to the 1970s and 1980s)

3. Much of the progress by-passed the countries and the people most in need

Summary: about half of the required progress has been made for the global agenda to be on-track at mid-point – so rapid acceleration needed

But …this assessment mostly ignores MDG 7

Regional Trends Identified

• East Asia, progress lagging in health, gender equality, and environmental sustainability.

• Latin America, progress in reducing extreme poverty has been more limited.

• West Asia, poverty increasing, progress towards gender equality slow, and threats of malaria and HIV/AIDS.

• South Asia, gender disparities are severe, education levels too low, maternal mortality a problem, impeding the MDGs.

• Sub-Saharan Africa, most countries are off track -- stuck in a profound poverty trap.

What Happened in the 1990s?

• Conventional reasons:– Cuts in foreign aid, Debt burdens, Conflict,

Poor governance

• Plus two overriding reasons:– HIV Pandemic (not only for health but also for

education, nutrition and other targets)

– Disparities have widened within a majority of countries.

Better Monitoring and Tailoring

Welcome developments:

1. Information more disaggregated, taking the story beyond national averages

2. More countries setting own quantitative targets for 2015 or beyond.

3. Industrialized countries issuing own progress reports

MDG 7: ‘Ensure environmental sustainability’

Target 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs and reverse the loss of environmental resources25. Proportion of land area covered by forests26. Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area27. Energy use per $1 GDP28. Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita) and consumption of ozone-depleting

chlorofluorocarbons29. Proportion of population using solid fuels

Target 10: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and sanitation 30. Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved water source,

urban and rural31. Proportion of population with access to improved sanitation

Target 11: Have achieved, by 2020, a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers 32. Proportion of households with access to secure tenure

MDG 7: ‘Ensure environmental sustainability’

Target 9:

Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programs and reverse the loss of environmental resources

Indicators:25. Proportion of land area covered by forests26. Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to

surface area27. Energy use per $1 GDP28. Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita) and consumption

of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons29. Proportion of population using solid fuels

Recommendations on MDG 7

1. Develop or adopt rigorous definition of Environmental Sustainability

2. Disaggregate Target 9 into key elements, e.g. Atmosphere, Freshwater, Forests, Fisheries and aquatic ecosystems, Waste and toxics

3. Encourage country efforts to develop their own data4. Assist countries in gathering and analyzing data5. Develop ‘poverty-environment’ indicators6. Embed environment-related indicators in other MDGs7. Coordinate among range of efforts on better Indicators8. Keep broader Millennium Declaration in focus

Encouraging Trends re: MDG 7

• Innovative country-level tailoring of indicators

• Local communities getting involved in MDGs and MDG campaign

• ‘Environmental’ community embracing MDGs and vice versa

• Industrial countries (e.g. EU) looking at MDG 7

Country Specific MDG7 Targets• Increase energy generated from renewable sources (Lebanon,

Slovenia, Thailand) • Decrease the total discharge of major pollutants by 10% compared with

2000 levels by 2015 (China)• Stabilise ambient air pollution by stationary and movable sources by

2015 (Ukraine) • Extend forest cover to 43% by 2010 (Viet Nam)• Increase afforestation rate from 27 to 35% by 2040 (Romania)• Increase the percentage of land area covered by forest from 8.2 to

9.0% (2000-2015) (Mongolia• Reduce by half the area of seriously salinised irrigated land by 2015

(Uzbekistan)• Ensure that 60% of the rural population has access to clean and safe

water by 2005 (80% of the urban population) and 85% of the rural population by 2010 (Vietnam)

• Full utilization of recycled wastewater of the expected effluent of 200,000m3/day by 2010 (Bahrain)

• Increase environmental spending to 1.7% of GDP by 2010 compared with 0.7% of GDP in 1996 (China)

Overview of UN Millennium Project

Mission: – To develop an operational framework that will allow all

developing countries to meet the MDGs by 2015Structure:

Commissioned by UN Secretary-General and directed by Prof. Jeffrey Sachs

Analysis performed by 10 thematically-oriented Task Forces

Country level advisory work in 2004 and 2005 with the following pilot countries: Cambodia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, and Tajikistan

Millennium Project ends on June 30, 2005

Millennium Project Schedule 2004-2005

June 2005 • Pilot country work completed – Millennium Project ends

January 2005 • Final Millennium Project “Global Plan to Achieve the MDGs” presented to UN Secretary-General

December 2004 • Final Task Force reports completed

September 2004 • Interim “Global Plan” report circulated for public comment

Millennium Project Pilot Countries

Cambodia

Tajikistan

Yemen

Ethiopia Kenya

Senegal

Ghana

Dominican Republic

Aim of Millennium Project Pilot Country Initiative

Goal is to support countries in developing MDG-based PRSs in advance of 5-year Review of Millennium Declaration in September 2005

Changes that commonly need to be made to existing PRSs:– Needs-based approach anchored in specifics– Focus on quantified outcome objectives– Mid-term strategies through to 2015– Broadened scope & increased level of ambition– Improved coordination across sectors– Strengthen coherence between expenditure

frameworks and strategies

Millennium Project’s Emerging Conclusions

I. Analysis for Donor Countries

The MDGs are a cost-effective investment strategy for donor countries. They will save money in the long term by breaking the poverty trap in poor countries

Millennium Project’sEmerging Conclusions

I. Recommendations for Donor Countries• Total ODA flows should rise to annual average of

[$156 billion] from 2005 to 2007 and [$188 billion] from 2013 to 2015.

• Expanded role for the UN system to support country-level planning for the MDGs will require increase in funding of another [$5 billion]

• External finances for meeting the MDGs should be provided as grants.

Millennium Project’sEmerging Conclusions

II. Analysis for Developing CountriesSuccessful development strategies entail:

• Rise in rural productivity /“green revolution” to raise food output

• Cities to foster internationally competitive industries and services

• Massive investments in nutrition, health care, education and family planning

• Investments in: public management systems, local capacity building for decentralization of public investments, scientific capacity.

Millennium Project’sEmerging Conclusions

II. Recommendations for Developing CountriesDeveloping countries to structure short-term poverty reduction strategy in the context of a 10-year MDG framework and invest in 8 areas key to achieving MDGs:

1. Rural investments to promote increased food output and food availability

2. Urban investments to promote jobs and slum improvements 3. Health system to ensure universal access to essential health

services4. Education system to ensure universal access to primary

education5. Investments to overcome pervasive gender bias6. Cross-border infrastructure with neighboring countries 7. Capacities in science and technology8. Public institutional capital to improve governance

Millennium Project’sEmerging Conclusions

III. Analysis to Put World on Track to MDGs• World Bank’s PRSPs suffer from a shortfall of

donor support / rarely ambitious enough for MDGs• Donor-recipient relations fraught with high tension• Weak links between the MDGs, the national

budgets, and the levels of ODA • PRSs still too “top down” from nat’l governments:

villages and cities to be empowered.

Millennium Project’sEmerging Conclusions

III. Recommendations to Put World on Track to MDGsInternational system to work if MDGs “mainstreamed” as central objective of development policy /practice:

• World community to adopt 10-Year Plan to achieve MDGs in each country.

• National governments, with NGOs & local governments, to take steps to support dramatic rise in investment spending (i.e. reforms in public management, regional organizations entrusted with increased donor support).

• UN Sec Gen to responsible for coordinating UN activities for MDGs, and for reporting to world community. General Assembly to come together to end extreme poverty in our time.

2005 UN Review of Millennium Declaration

September 2005

UN General Assembly focused on:

1. UN High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change

2. UN Reform (‘Simplification & Harmonization’)

3. Development (i.e. Millennium Declaration)

March - Sept 2005

• Political consensus building process for SG’s Report

March 2005 • SG’s Report on the Millennium Declaration released

January 2004

• Final Millennium Project Reports submitted to SG

November 2004

• SG proposes to GA ‘modalities, format & organization’ of High Level MDG event for Sept

A Few More Key Meetings in 2005 of Relevance to MDGs

Fall 2005? • World Trade Organization on Development Trade Round

Summer 2005

• EU and G-8 Summits on Aid, Trade, Debt

Spring 2005 • UK organized NEPAD review

April 2005 • IMF & World Bank on Debt, Innovative Financing and Integration of MDGs in PRSs

March 2005 • OECD/DAC on ‘Quality of Aid’