The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft

The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft

Product Code #F612 A Special Focused Market Segment Analysis by:

Civil Aircraft Forecast

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Analysis 2 The Market for Regional Transport

Aircraft - 2008-2017 Table of Contents

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................4

Figure 1 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph).................5

Figure 2 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Value of Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph)..........6

Figure 3 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production 2008-2017 (Pie Chart) ..................6

Figure 4 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Value of Production 2008-2017 (Pie Chart)............7

Figure 5 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft Unit Statistics % Market Share by Segment 2008-2017 (Pie Chart) .............................................8

Figure 6 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft Value Statistics % Market Share by Segment 2008-2017 (Pie Chart)...........................................8

Introduction................................................................................................................................................................9

Methodology ..............................................................................................................................................................9

Analysis.....................................................................................................................................................................10

Table 1 - The Market for 1-19 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017......................................................19

Table 2 - The Market for 1-19 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017 ......................................................20

Figure 7 - 1-19 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph).......................22

Figure 8 - 1-19 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Value of Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph)................22

Table 3 - The Market for 1-19 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017..........................................23

Table 4 - The Market for 1-19 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017 ..........................................24

Figure 9 - 1-19 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters 2008-2017 (Pie Chart).................................25

Figure 10 - 1-19 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters 2008-2017 (Pie Chart)................................25


Table 6 - The Market for 20-30 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017 ......................................................28

Figure 11 - 20-30 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph)...................29

Figure 12 - 20-30 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Value of Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph) ............29


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Table 7 - The Market for 20-30 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017..........................................30

Table 8 - The Market for 20-30 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017 ..........................................30

Figure 13 - 20-30 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters 2008-2017 (Pie Chart) ...............................31



Table 10 - The Market for 31-50 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017.....................................................35



Table 11 - The Market for 31-50 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017........................................37

Table 12 - The Market for 31-50 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017.........................................37

Figure 17 - 31-50 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters 2008-2107 (Pie Chart) ...............................38

Figure 18 - 31-50 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters 2008-2017 (Pie Chart)................................38

Table 13 - The Market for 51-75 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017....................................................41








Table 17 - The Market for 76-130 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017....................................................52


Figure 23 - 76-130 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph).................56

Figure 24 - 76-130 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Value of Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph) ..........56


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Market Statistics .....................................................................................................................................................60

Table 21 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017....................................................60

Table 22 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017.....................................................64

Figure 27 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph).............68

Figure 28 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Value of Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph)......68

Table 23 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017........................................69

Table 24 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017.........................................71

Figure 29 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters 2008-2017 (Pie Chart) ...............................73

Figure 30 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters 2008-2017 (Pie Chart)................................73

Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................................................74

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Product Code F612 The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft

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PROGRAMS The following reports are included in this section: (Note: a single report may cover several programs.)

Airbus A318 Aircraft Industries L 410/420 Antonov An-148 Antonov/PZL Mielec An-28/An-38 ATR Series AVIC I ARJ21 B-N Group Turbine Islander Bombardier CRJ Regional Jets Bombardier CSeries Bombardier Q Series EADS CASA C-212 Embraer 170/175/190/195 Embraer ERJ 135/140/145 Ilyushin II-114 Pilatus PC-12 Sukhoi Superjet 100 Tupolev Tu-334 Xi’an MA60/MA600

Product Code F612 The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft

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Introduction Regional airlines can often find opportunities for growth during times when mainline carriers are suffering. Such was the case in 2001 when a collapse in air traffic spurred major network carriers to dump capacity and cut back flight schedules. Regional airlines were then able to fill the resultant gaps in service, kicking off an era of strong growth in the regional sector.

At the present time, major airlines are once again in trouble. Unlike 2001, though, regional carriers are feeling pain as well. And this is occurring at a time when the regional sector itself is undergoing a transfor-mation of sorts. Due to changing business relationships with their major airline partners, many regionals have been forced to alter and adjust the business strategies under which they operate.

In the midst of all this turbulence (and partly as a result of it), the regional aircraft manufacturing industry is changing. New players are entering the market that are looking to take market share away from Bombardier and Embraer. Regional jet demand is shifting upward toward 90-seat and larger aircraft. Meanwhile, turbo-prop airliners are experiencing a strong revival of market interest and demand.

All of these trends and factors are explored in depth in this new market analysis from Forecast International. Accompanying this analysis are line-by-line, 10-year production forecasts for both regional jets and regional

turboprops. These forecasts are shown in both actual units produced and the monetary value of that produc-tion. The forecasts are also used to calculate projected market shares for manufacturers.

In the current competitive environment, it is becoming increasingly difficult to draw a clear and unambiguous line between the regional aircraft market and the large airliner market. Regional jets seating more than 100 passengers compete for sales with narrowbody airliners from companies such as Airbus and Boeing. For example, the Embraer 195 can accommodate as many as 122 passengers. While its direct competitor is the Airbus A318 (which we categorize as a regional jet), it also competes to some extent against the Airbus A319 and the Boeing 737-700.

The launch of Bombardier’s new 100-145 seat CSeries family of aircraft further blurs the line between the two categories. Not only will the CSeries take on the A318 and the Embraer 190 and 195, it will also directly compete with various Airbus and Boeing narrowbodies.

Thus, considerable competitive overlap now exists between the top end of the regional jet market and the lower end of the large airliner market. Nevertheless, the two markets remain sufficiently distinct from one another that a separate analysis is required in order to do justice to the regional aircraft market.

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© 20 08 May 2008

Embraer 170/175/190/195

Orientation Description. Twin-turbofan-powered regional trans-port aircraft.

Sponsor. The 170/175/190/195 series is sponsored privately by Embraer.

Status. Production

Total Produced. Through 2007, Embraer had pro-duced 141 170s, 60 175s, 126 190s, 14 195s, and one Lineage 1000.

Application. Scheduled and non-scheduled regional passenger transportation.

Price Range. Embraer 170, $27.5-$29.0 million; Embraer 175, $30.0-$31.0 million; Embraer 190, $33.0-$34.5 million; Embraer 195, $35.0-$36.5 million – all in 2007 U.S. dollars. Lineage 1000, $42.95 million in 2006 U.S. dollars.

Embraer 170

Source: Embraer

Outlook AR versions of the 170 and the 175 have been launched

Production ramp-up difficulties for the 190/195 have been overcome

Lineage 1000 corporate jet variant made first flight in 2007

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Uni

ts

Unit Production Forecast 2008-2017

Units 157 145 138 131 137 134 133 133 133 129

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Page 2 Civil Aircraft Forecast

Embraer 170/175/190/195

May 2008

Contractors

Prime Embraer - Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica SA

http://www.embraer.com, Av Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 2170, São José dos Campos, 12227-901 São Paulo, Brazil, Tel: + 55 12 3927 1000, Fax: + 55 12 3921 2394, Prime

Subcontractor Air Precision SA http://www.airprecision.com, 5, avenue Denis Papin, BP 36, Le Plessis-Robinson, 92353

France, Tel: + 33 146 012 116, Fax: + 33 146 325 207, Email: [email protected] (Clock)

C & D Aerospace 7330 Lincoln Way, Garden Grove, CA 92641 United States, Tel: + 1 (714) 891-0683, Fax: + 1 (714) 891-7073 (Passenger Cabin & Cargo Compartment Interior)

Chelton (Electrostatics) Ltd http://www.chelton.co.uk/, Fieldhouse Ln, Marlow, SL7 1LR Buckinghamshire, United Kingdom, Tel: + 44 1628472072, Fax: + 44 1628482255, Email: [email protected] (VHF Antenna)

GE - Aviation http://www.geae.com, 1000 Western Ave, Lynn, MA 01910-0001 United States, Tel: + 1 (617) 594-0100, Fax: + 1 (617) 594-4729 (CF34 Turbofan Engine)

Gamesa Aeronautica http://www.gamesa.es, Parque Tecnologico de Alava, C/Leonardo da Vinci n 13, Minano (Alava), 01510 Spain, Tel: + 34 945 185600, Fax: + 34 945 185614, Email: [email protected] (Rear Fuselage Section; Vertical & Horizontal Stabilizer; Rudder; Elevator)

Goodrich Corp http://www.goodrich.com, Four Coliseum Centre, 2730 W Tyvola Rd, Charlotte, NC 28217-4578 United States, Tel: + 1 (704) 423-7000, Fax: + 1 (704) 423-7002, Email: [email protected] (Smart Probe; Stick Shaker; TAT; Windshield Wiper)

Hamilton Sundstrand http://www.hamiltonsundstrand.com, One Hamilton Rd, Windsor Locks, CT 06096-1010 United States, Tel: + 1 (860) 654-6000, Fax: + 1 (860) 654-2621, Email: [email protected] (Tail Cone; Electrical System; Air Management System; APU)

Harvey Titanium Ltd http://www.rolledalloys.com/companyinformation/harvey.aspx, 291 Coral Circle Dr, El Segundo, CA 90245 United States, Tel: + 1 (310) 343-6000, Fax: + 1 (310) 606-9322, Email: [email protected] (Titanium Components)

Honeywell Aerospace, Air Transport & Regional

http://www.honeywell.com/sites/aero/, 21111 N 19th Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85027 United States, Tel: + 1 (602) 436-2311 (Avionics)

Honeywell Aerospace, Lighting & Electronics

http://www.honeywellaes.com/lighting/index.jsp, 550 Route 55, PO Box 247, Urbana, OH 43078 United States, Tel: + 1 (937) 484-2000, Fax: + 1 (937) 484-2008 (Exterior Lighting)

Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KHI)

http://www.khi.co.jp, 1-3 Higashikawasaki-cho 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Kobe, 650-8680 Japan, Tel: + 81 78 371 9530, Fax: + 81 78 371 9568 (Wing Control Surfaces)

Latecoere http://www.latecoere.fr/, 135, rue de Periole, Toulouse Cedex, F-31079 France, Tel: + 33 5 6158 77, Fax: + 33 5 6158 76 (Center Fuselage Sections I & III; Forward Fuselage Door)

Liebherr-Aero-Technik GmbH Pfaenderstr 50/52, Postfach 1363, Lindenberg, Germany, Tel: + 49 0049 (0)8381 46 (Landing Gear System)

Parker Hannifin Corp http://www.parker.com, 6035 Parkland Blvd, Cleveland, OH 44124-4141 United States, Tel: + 1 (216) 896-3000, Fax: + 1 (216) 896-4000 (Hydraulic, Flight Control & Fuel Systems)

SONACA SA http://www.sonaca.com, Route Nationale Cinq, Gosselies, 6041 Belgium, Tel: + 32 71 25 51 11, Fax: + 32 71 34 40 35 (Wing Slats)

Civil Aircraft Forecast Page 3

Embraer 170/175/190/195

© 20 08 May 2008

Vibro-Meter SA http://www.vibro-meter.com, Route de Moncor 4, PO Box 1071, Fribourg, CH-1701 Switzerland, Tel: + 41 26 407 1111, Fax: + 41 26 402 3662, Email: [email protected] (EVM)

Comprehensive information on Contractors can be found in Forecast International’s “International Contractors” series. For a detailed description, go to www.forecastinternational.com (see Products & Samples/Governments & Industries) or call + 1 (203) 426-0800.

Contractors are invited to submit updated information to Editor, International Contractors, Forecast International, 22 Commerce Road, Newtown, CT 06470, USA; [email protected]

Technical Data (170AR/190AR/195AR)

Design Features. Low-wing design with twin under-wing engines. The fuselage has an elliptical-shaped, double-bubble design. Four main doors, two fore and

two aft, permit simultaneous baggage and passenger loading and unloading. There are no overwing exits.

Metric U.S. Dimensions Overall length 29.90/36.24/38.65 m 98.10/118.90/126.80 ft Overall height 9.85/10.57/10.55 m 32.32/34.68/34.61 ft Wingspan 26.0/28.72/28.72 m 85.30/94.23/94.23 ft Weight Maximum takeoff weight 38,600/51,800/52,290 kg 85,098/114,199/115,279 lb Maximum landing weight 33,300/44,000/45,800 kg 73,414/97,003/100,971 lb Maximum payload 9,840/13,080/13,650 kg 21,693/28,836/30,093 lb Maximum fuel 9,335/12,971/12,971 kg 20,580/28,596/28,596 lb Performance Maximum operating speed Mach 0.82 Mach 0.82 Takeoff field length (SL, ISA, MTOW) 1,644/2,056/2,179 m 5,394/6,745/7,149 ft Landing field length (SL, MLW) 1,273/1,323/1,282 m 4,177/4,341/4,206 ft Range (long-range cruise) 170AR with 70 passengers 3,892 km 2,100 nm 190AR with 98 passengers 4,448 km 2,400 nm 195AR with 108 passengers 4,077 km 2,200 nm Propulsion 170/175 (2) General Electric CF34-8E turbofan engines rated 63.2 kN (14,200 lbst) each. 190/195 (2) General Electric CF34-10E turbofan engines rated 88.9 kN (20,000 lbst) each. Seating The 170 accommodates 70-80 passengers. The 175 carries 78-88 passengers, the 190 accommodates 94-114 passengers, and the 195 carries 106-122 passengers.

Variants/Upgrades Embraer 170. Formerly called the ERJ 170. Initial flight of the 70-80 passenger 170 occurred in February 2002. Six pre-series aircraft were built for flight testing. Four of these aircraft were eventually delivered to customers. Two static test airframes were also built.

The 170 received provisional type certification from the Brazilian Centro Tecnico Aerospacial (CTA) and the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in November 2003 and December 2003, respectively. Full type certification was delayed, however, until the


Embraer 170/175/190/195

May 2008

certification documentation for the Honeywell flight control system software was supplemented. The aircraft received full certification from the CTA, the FAA, and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) in February 2004. Deliveries began in March 2004.

The 170 is marketed in three versions. The standard version provides a range of 1,700 nautical miles with 70 passengers. Maximum takeoff weight is 35,990 kilo-grams (79,344 lb).

The long-range version of the 170, called the 170LR, is able to fly 2,000 nautical miles with 70 passengers. Its maximum takeoff weight is 37,200 kilograms (82,011 lb).

Embraer launched an extended-range version of the 170 in May 2007. Range with 70 passengers of the new 170AR (Advanced Range) is 2,100 nautical miles.

The 170 is powered by two General Electric CF34-8E engines rated 63.2 kN (14,200 lbst) each.

Embraer 175. The 175 is a stretched version of the 170. Depending on seating layout, the aircraft can carry 78-88 passengers. First flight occurred in June 2003. Two 175s were used for the flight test and certification program; the second of these was later delivered in 2006 to Air Caraibes. The Brazilian CTA awarded the 175 type certification in December 2004. Certification by Transport Canada occurred in July 2005. Initial delivery, to Air Canada, followed later that month. The FAA certificated the 175 in August 2006.

As with the 170, the 175 is marketed in standard, long-range, and AR versions. The standard version provides a range of 1,500 nautical miles with 78 passengers. Maximum takeoff weight is 37,500 kilograms (82,673 lb).

The long-range version of the 175, dubbed the 175LR, is able to fly 1,800 nautical miles with 78 passengers. Its maximum takeoff weight is 38,790 kilograms (85,517 lb).

The 175AR model was launched in May 2007 at the same time as the 170AR. Range of the 175AR with 78 passengers is 2,000 nautical miles.

The 175 is powered by two CF34-8E engines.

Embraer 190/195. Embraer markets two other stretched versions of the 170 called the Embraer 190 and the Embraer 195. The 190 (previously called the ERJ 190-100) accommodates 94-114 passengers, and the further stretched 195 (formerly called the ERJ 190-200) carries 106-122 passengers.

The 190 and the 195 are powered by General Electric CF34-10E engines rated 88.9 kN (20,000 lbst) each.

The initial pre-series 190 was rolled out in February 2004, and made its first flight in March 2004. A second pre-series 190 made its initial flight in May 2004. A third pre-series 190 was also built. The 190 was certificated by the Brazilian CTA in August 2005 and by the FAA in September 2005. Initial delivery, to JetBlue Airways, occurred in mid-September 2005.

The initial 195 made its first flight in December 2004. The 195 was awarded Brazilian certification in June 2006. EASA certificated the 195 in July 2006. Initial delivery, to Flybe, occurred in September 2006. The FAA certificated the 195 in August 2007.

Three versions of each model are marketed. The stan-dard version of the 190 has a range with 98 passengers of 1,700 nautical miles, while that of the long-range version (the 190LR) is 2,200 nautical miles. Range with 108 passengers of the standard 195 is 1,430 nautical miles, and that of the long-range version (the 195LR) is 1,800 nautical miles.

In January 2005, Embraer announced AR versions of the 190 and the 195. Range with 98 passengers of the new 190AR is 2,400 nautical miles. Range of the 195AR with 108 passengers is 2,200 nautical miles.

Program Review Background. In February 1999, Embraer announced the “pre-launch” of a new regional jet series consisting of a 70-passenger transport called the ERJ 170 and a stretched, 90-passenger derivative called the ERJ 190. Prior to this announcement, the Brazilian company had conducted a number of studies related to the project, including a year-long study that involved consultation with 46 regional airlines in North and South America,

Europe, and Asia. These studies indicated that a market existed for both a 70-passenger regional jet and a 90-passenger jet in the near future.

The ERJ 170 would be an all-new product, rather than one derived from an existing Embraer aircraft. The fuselage of the company’s 50-passenger ERJ 145, which had been derived from that of the EMB 120 turboprop, could not be used for a 70-passenger aircraft.


Embraer 170/175/190/195

© 20 08 May 2008

Two 190 Variants Developed

By May 1999, Embraer had decided to develop two ERJ 190 variants: a baseline, 98-passenger version that eventually was named the ERJ 190-100, and a stretched, 108-passenger version that was initially called the ERJ 190S and later became known as the ERJ 190-200.

The ERJ 170/190 program was officially launched in June 1999. Launch customers for the program were the Swiss airline Crossair and the French carrier Regional Airlines. Crossair ordered 30 ERJ 170s and 30 ERJ 190-200s. Regional ordered 10 ERJ 170s; these 10 orders have since been canceled.

The Crossair orders were reduced in 2003 to 15 of each model by SWISS International Airlines. SWISS was established in 2002 by a merger of Crossair and Swissair. The new carrier had taken over Crossair’s orders for the 170 and the 195. However, the SWISS orders were eventually canceled in 2007.

Risk-Sharing Partners. Among Embraer’s main risk-sharing partners on the 170/190 program are General Electric (CF34 engines), Honeywell (avionics), C&D Aerospace (passenger cabin and cargo compartment interior), Gamesa (vertical and horizontal stabilizers, rudder, elevators, and rear fuselage section), Hamilton Sundstrand (tail cone, APU, electrical systems, air management system), Latecoere (center fuselage sections I and III, forward fuselage doors), Parker Hannifin (hydraulic, flight control, and fuel systems), Liebherr (landing gear system), Kawasaki (wing stub, control surfaces, engine pylons), and SONACA (wing slats).

Embraer itself is responsible for the forward fuselage, the nose cone, center fuselage section II, and the wing-to-fuselage fairings. It is also responsible for fabri-cation of the torsion box and for wing integration.

In January 2000, Embraer finalized agreements with a number of companies that it termed risk-sharing suppliers. They included Air Precision (clock), Honeywell Lighting & Electronics (external lighting and cockpit), Smiths Aerospace (windshield heater), Goodrich (smart probe, windshield wiper, TAT, stick shaker), Chelton (VHF antennas), Harvey Titanium (titanium components), Norton Performance Plastics (radome), Sensor Systems (VOR/ILS antennas), and Vibro-Meter (EVM).

In mid-1999, Embraer selected the General Electric CF34 to power the ERJ 170/190 series over the BMW Rolls-Royce BR715 and the Pratt & Whitney/Snecma SPW16.

In mid-2000, Embraer decided to add winglets to the 170 design. Performance gains resulting from the

introduction of winglets to the company’s EMB 145 AEW&C aircraft encouraged Embraer to investigate their use on the 170 and then incorporate them as a standard feature on the aircraft. The 170 winglets improve fuel burn, climb capability, hot-and-high per-formance, obstacle clearance, and payload. In addition, range is increased by 3 to 5 percent at typical cruise speeds and gross weights.

Name Change. In October 2001, Embraer redesig-nated the ERJ 170 as the Embraer 170. In addition, the ERJ 190-100 was renamed the Embraer 190, and the ERJ 190-200 was redesignated the Embraer 195.

Embraer currently refers to the entire 170/190 family as the E-Jets series.

190/195 Program Schedule Revised

Schedule Change. In June 2003, JetBlue Airways became the launch customer for the 190 with an order for 100 aircraft. The airline also took options on an additional 100 190s. JetBlue’s 190s have a 100-seat configuration.

The JetBlue order prompted Embraer to change the program schedule for the 190/195 variants. Originally, the 195 was to be the first of the two models to be certificated; however, the 190 now became first.

The 190 was certificated by the Brazilian CTA in August 2005 and by the FAA in early September 2005. Certification of the 190 had previously been slated for later that year. Deliveries of the 190 began in mid-September 2005.

Brazilian and European certification of the 195 occurred in mid-2006. Certification of the 195 had been post-poned from late 2004.

Launch of AR Versions

In early 2005, Embraer announced the formal launch of the 190AR and the 195AR, new versions of the 190 and the 195, respectively. The new versions have increased range; structural reinforcements in the fuselage, wings, pylons, and flight control surfaces; and higher maxi-mum takeoff weight and maximum landing weight.

Embraer launched the AR models in response to a request from JetBlue, the launch customer for the 190. JetBlue later converted its entire order for 100 190s plus 100 options to the 190AR.

AR versions of the 170 and the 175 were launched in May 2007.

Work Transfer

In June 2006, Embraer announced a Letter of Agree-ment (LOA) concerning the transfer of some work


Embraer 170/175/190/195

May 2008

packages to Embraer from Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) and Kawasaki Aeronautica do Brasil (KAB). The LOA, which was effective immediately, contained basic implementation guidelines for the planned work package transfer. Embraer said that, through this trans-fer, it and KHI would be better prepared to support the 190 and 195 production ramp-up.

Under the agreement, the work packages assumed by Embraer from KAB and KHI included the metallic parts from the wings of the 190 and the 195. KHI retained the work packages for the wing control surfaces and the main landing gear doors of these aircraft. Work packages supplied by KHI for the 170 and 175 programs were not affected.

New High-Capacity Configurations

In July 2006, Embraer announced that it would market the members of the 170/190 series in high-capacity variants as a response to growing interest among airlines. The company said that no structural changes or additional testing would be necessary to certify the new configurations.

With the new configurations, the maximum capacity of the 170 increased to 80 seats from 78, and that of the 175 increased to 88 seats (from 86). The maximum capacity of the 190 rose to 114 seats (from 108), and that of the 195 increased to 122 seats (from 118).

Related News Six 122-Seat 195s Sold – In February 2008, Embraer announced that it had signed a firm order with JJH Capital for six Embraer 195 regional jets, plus purchase rights for another six aircraft. The total value of the deal is $237 million, at list price, based on January 2008 economic conditions. The value could double if all purchase rights are confirmed. The deal was included in Embraer’s fourth quarter 2007 firm order backlog attributed to an undisclosed customer.

The 195s will be flown by a newly established Spanish air carrier, Universal Airlines, serving domestic and intra-European network routes. Universal and JJH Capital are both owned by Juan Jose Hidalgo, who is also president of Air Europa and Globalia.

Initial delivery is scheduled for May 2008. Universal will be the first operator in the world to fly the 195 in a single-class, high-capacity 122-seat layout. (Embraer, 2/08)

Market Intelligence Service Subscribers: For additional news, go to the online E-Market Alert page located in the Intelligence Center at www.forecastinternational.com and click on the links to the products you subscribe to.

Funding In early 2003, the development cost of the 170/190 series was estimated at $850 million.

Contracts/Orders & Options (As of March 2008)

Operator Designation Quantity Phase

AeroRepublica SA Embraer 190 20 Option

Air Canada Embraer 190 45 Option

Air Canada Embraer 190AR 2 On Order

Air Caraibes SA Embraer 190 1 Option

Air Moldova Embraer 190 1 On Order

Alitalia Express SpA Embraer 170LR 6 Option

Alpi Eagles SpA Embraer 195 6 Option


Embraer 170/175/190/195

© 20 08 May 2008


Alpi Eagles SpA Embraer 195AR 10 On Order

BRA Embraer 195 20 On Order

Chautauqua Airlines Embraer 170 59 Option

Copa Airlines - Compania Panamena De Aviacion Embraer 190AR 4 On Order

Copa Airlines - Compania Panamena De Aviacion Embraer 190AR 15 Option

EgyptAir Embraer 170 6 On Order

Finnair Oyj Embraer 190LR 4 On Order

Flybe Embraer 195 5 On Order

Flybe Embraer 195 12 Option

GECAS Embraer 170 75 Option

GECAS Embraer 170LR 1 On Order

GECAS Embraer 190AR 14 On Order

GECAS Embraer 195 5 On Order

GECAS Embraer 195 22 Option

HNA Group Embraer 190 50 On Order

JAL Embraer 170 10 On Order

JetBlue Airways Embraer 190AR 70 On Order

JetBlue Airways Embraer 190AR 99 Option

Jetscape Embraer 190 10 On Order

Jetscape Embraer 190 10 Option

JJH Capital Embraer 195 6 On Order

KLM Embraer 190 10 On Order

LOT Polish Airlines - Polskie Linie Lotnicze Embraer 170 7 Option

LOT Polish Airlines - Polskie Linie Lotnicze Embraer 175 12 On Order

LOT Polish Airlines - Polskie Linie Lotnicze Embraer 175 2 Option

Lufthansa Embraer 190LR 30 On Order

M1 Travel Embraer 190 5 On Order

NAS Air Embraer 190 5 On Order

Northwest Airlines Embraer 175LR 25 On Order

Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 170 7 On Order

Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 170 5 Option

Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 190 1 On Order

Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 190 2 Option

Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 190LR 4 On Order

Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 190LR 6 Option

Republic Airlines Inc Embraer 175 29 On Order

Royal Jordanian Embraer 175 2 On Order

Shuttle America Embraer 175 11 Option


Embraer 170/175/190/195

May 2008


South African Airlink Pty Ltd Embraer 170 2 On Order

Suzuyo Embraer 170 2 On Order

Suzuyo Embraer 170 1 Option

TACA International Airlines SA Embraer 190 11 On Order

TACA International Airlines SA Embraer 190 15 Option

TAME - Linea Aerea Del Ecuador Embraer 170LR 4 Option

Undisclosed Embraer 190 7 On Order

US Airways Embraer 190 46 On Order

US Airways Embraer 190 50 Option

Virgin Blue Airlines Pty Ltd Embraer 170LR 3 On Order

Virgin Blue Airlines Pty Ltd Embraer 190 4 On Order

Virgin Blue Airlines Pty Ltd Embraer 190 3 Option

Virgin Blue Airlines Pty Ltd Embraer 190AR 14 On Order

Virgin Nigeria Airways Ltd Embraer 170AR 7 On Order

Virgin Nigeria Airways Ltd Embraer 190 8 Option

Virgin Nigeria Airways Ltd Embraer 190AR 3 On Order

Virgin Nigeria Airways Ltd Embraer 190AR 6 Option

Timetable Month Year Major Development Feb 1999 Pre-launch of ERJ 170/190 announced Jun 1999 Official launch of ERJ 170/190 program Feb 2002 Initial flight of 170 Jun 2003 Initial flight of 175 Feb 2004 CTA, FAA, and EASA certification of 170 Mar 2004 Initial delivery of 170; Initial flight of 190 Dec 2004 CTA certification of 175; Initial flight of 195 Jul 2005 Initial delivery of 175 Aug 2005 CTA certification of 190 Sep 2005 Initial delivery of 190 Jun 2006 Brazilian certification of 195 Sep 2006 Initial delivery of 195


Embraer 170/175/190/195

© 20 08 May 2008

Worldwide Distribution/Inventories (As of March 2008)

Operator Designation Quantity

Aeromexico Connect (Aerolitoral) Embraer 190AR 2

AeroRepublica SA Embraer 190AR 7

AeroRepublica SA Embraer 190LR 1

Air Canada Embraer 175 15

Air Canada Embraer 190AR 43

Air Caraibes SA Embraer 175 1

Air Caraibes SA Embraer 190LR 1

Air France Embraer 190AR 3

Airnorth Embraer 170LR 1

Alitalia Express SpA Embraer 170LR 6

Cirrus Airlines Luftfahrtunternehmen GmbH Embraer 170 1

Cirrus Airlines Luftfahrtunternehmen GmbH Embraer 170LR 1

Compass Airlines Embraer 175AR 2

Compass Airlines Embraer 175LR 9

Copa Airlines - Compania Panamena De Aviacion Embraer 190AR 11

EgyptAir Express Embraer 170 1

EgyptAir Express Embraer 170LR 5

Finnair Oyj Embraer 170LR 10

Finnair Oyj Embraer 190LR 6

Flybe Embraer 195 3

Flybe Embraer 195LR 6

JetBlue Airways Embraer 190AR 31

Kenya Airways Ltd Embraer 170LR 2

LOT Polish Airlines - Polskie Linie Lotnicze Embraer 170 10

LOT Polish Airlines - Polskie Linie Lotnicze Embraer 175 6

Mandarin Airlines Ltd Embraer 190 1

Mandarin Airlines Ltd Embraer 190AR 2

Paramount Airways Ltd Embraer 170LR 2

Paramount Airways Ltd Embraer 175 3

Regional Airlines Ltd Embraer 190AR 1

Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 190AR 1

Republic Airlines Inc Embraer 170 16

Republic Airlines Inc Embraer 170LR 13

Republic Airlines Inc Embraer 175 21

Republic Airlines Inc Embraer 175LR 4


Embraer 170/175/190/195

May 2008

Operator Designation Quantity

Royal Jordanian Embraer 195AR 5

SATENA - Servicio De Aeronavegaeion A Territorios Embraer 170LR 1

Saudi Arabian Airlines Embraer 170LR 15

Shuttle America Embraer 170 7

Shuttle America Embraer 170LR 37

TAME - Linea Aerea Del Ecuador Embraer 170LR 2

TAME - Linea Aerea Del Ecuador Embraer 190AR 3

US Airways Embraer 190 3

US Airways Embraer 190AR 8

Virgin Blue Airlines Pty Ltd Embraer 170LR 3

Market Intelligence Service Subscribers: The Airline Inventories, Orders and Options appendix provides instructions on how to access an online database of up-to-date listings. Use this database to obtain detailed, current information.

Forecast Rationale Embraer delivered 125 E-Jets aircraft in 2007, including 11 170s, 34 175s, 70 190s, and 10 195s. Firm order backlogs at the end of the year totaled 31 for the 170, 70 for the 175, 282 for the 190, and 47 for the 195.

The 190 has become, by far, the most popular model in the E-Jets series. The 190 and the 195 have enabled Embraer to exploit a gap in the commercial aviation market between 90-seat regional jets and mainline narrowbody airliners. Airlines can use these Embraer jets to replace larger narrowbodies on routes that would be more efficiently served by smaller aircraft such as the 190 or the 195. In addition, low-fare carriers can utilize the 190 and the 195 to expand into mid-size markets that would not be able to support operations with Boeing 737s or Airbus A319s.

The immediate market success of the 190/195 con-tributed to production ramp-up problems and delayed deliveries of the two models. However, Embraer spent 2007 increasing build rates and improving production capacity.

Sales Competition

At the 100-seat level and below, the most direct com-petitors to the 190 are Bombardier’s 90-seat CRJ900 and 100-seat CRJ1000. However, the 190 can be configured for as many as 114 seats, while the 195 seats 106-122 passengers. Above 100 seats, the two Embraer aircraft currently have little direct competition other than the Airbus A318, though the 195 does indirectly

compete with the A319 and, to some extent, the 737-700.

This situation would change dramatically should Bombardier, as increasingly seems likely, launch its proposed CSeries family of 110- to 130-seat airliners. The CSeries would compete directly with the 190 and the 195. Bombardier says that the CSeries, powered by Pratt & Whitney’s new Geared Turbofan engine, will be significantly more fuel efficient than the Embraer regional jets. Service entry of the CSeries is tentatively scheduled for 2013.

Scope Clauses Limit 90+ Seat Market

While no longer much of a factor in the 70-seat regional jet market, scope clauses remain a considerable obstacle to the 90+ seat market reaching its full potential. These clauses in major airline pilot contracts, which limit the number and size of aircraft flown by regional partners of the majors, act as an artificial brake on sales of 90-seat and larger regional jets. Eventually, financial and competitive pressures can be expected to force an easing of these clauses with regard to 90+ seaters. However, this may happen later rather than sooner.

170AR and 175AR Launched

The 170 and the 175 compete for sales with the 64-75 seat Bombardier CRJ700. Among other factors, growth in air traffic on regional routes caused market demand in the past several years to shift away from 50-seat regional jets to 70-seat aircraft. Likewise, continuation


Embraer 170/175/190/195

© 20 08 May 2008

of such growth is already helping to shift demand away from 70-seaters and toward larger aircraft.

In May 2007, Embraer launched Advanced Range (AR) versions of the 170 and the 175. The AR models incorporate structural reinforcements that allow the aircraft to be operated at takeoff, landing, and zero fuel weights above the current maximums. Depending on aircraft configuration and operating conditions, the AR versions will also provide a range increase of 556 kilometers (300 nm) on average, and a payload increase of more than 700 kilograms (1,543 lb).

Certification of the 175AR is targeted for the third quarter of 2008, followed by certification of the 170 AR in the fourth quarter of the year. Northwest Airlines is the launch customer for the 175AR.

Retrofit kits will be available to operators of existing 170s and 175s that might wish to convert their aircraft to the AR standard.

“We at Embraer are constantly analyzing our cus-tomers’ needs and requirements, and the new AR versions of the Embraer 170 and Embraer 175 are the result of those analyses,” said Mauro Kern, Embraer Executive Vice President for the Airline Market.

Beyond the 170/190

The 170/190 design would appear to have some potential for a further stretch beyond the current 195. Embraer, though, has publicly stated that it has no plans to develop a further stretched model.

The company has studied a possible shrink derivative of the 170 seating approximately 54-58 passengers, though it has no immediate plans to build this variant. Embraer has also examined potential freighter and quick-change (QC) versions of the 170 and the 195.

Bombardier’s CSeries and a new 70-96 seat regional jet family planned by Mitsubishi (also targeted for service

entry in 2013) both promise to incorporate newer technology than the 170/190 series. However, Embraer has no plans to introduce a new regional jet family until at least 2016 or so. The company intends to study engine concepts and other technologies over the next couple of years before it makes a decision on a new design. Participation in Airbus’ project to develop a new narrowbody airliner is also a possibility for Embraer.

Lineage 1000 Takes to the Air

The Lineage 1000, a corporate jet model based on the 190 airliner, made its initial flight in October 2007. Delivery of this aircraft, to Aamer Abdul Jalil Al Fahim, is scheduled to occur in the second half of 2008.

Embraer had more than 10 orders for the Lineage 1000 by the end of 2007. The aircraft can accommodate up to 19 people in a total cabin volume of 115.7 cubic meters (4,085 cu ft). It is equipped with Honeywell Primus Epic avionics and GE CF34-10E7 engines. Range with eight passengers is 4,200 nautical miles with NBAA IFR reserves and 200-nautical-mile alternate. The aircraft has a maximum operating speed of Mach 0.82.

The British company Priestman Goode designed the interior of the Lineage 1000. The interior has five distinct cabin areas, which can include a dining room, a lounge, a work area, and so on. DeCrane Aircraft was selected by Embraer for interior completion and to supply various interior components. DeCrane sub-sidiary PATS Aircraft handles interior installations, while other DeCrane units supply interior components such as seating, furniture, and in-flight entertainment systems.

The Lineage 1000 competes directly with the Airbus A318 Elite for customers in the corporate/VIP market. Other competitors include the 737-based Boeing Business Jet as well as various Bombardier and Gulfstream corporate jet models.


Embraer 170/175/190/195

May 2008

Ten-Year Outlook

ESTIMATED CALENDAR YEAR UNIT PRODUCTION

Designation or Program High Confidence Good Confidence Speculative

Thru 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total

Embraer - Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica SA

170/175 <> CF34 -8 E 201 58 42 38 38 40 36 34 32 32 30 380

190/195 <> CF34 -10 E 140 97 99 96 90 93 95 95 97 97 96 955

Lineage 1000 <> CF34 -10 E 1 2 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 35

Subtotal 342 157 145 138 131 137 134 133 133 133 129 1370

Total 342 157 145 138 131 137 134 133 133 133 129 1,370

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The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft