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The Lincoln Drivers Report
Winter 2013
1
Table of Contents 1. Introduction................................................................................................3 2. Executive Summary...................................................................................4 3. Map of Lincoln............................................................................................5 4. The Population of Lincoln.........................................................................6
4.1 Population growth ...............................................................................6 4.2 Age profile of Lincoln ..........................................................................7 4.3 Ward level population .........................................................................9 4.4 Migrant workers ................................................................................10
5. Poverty......................................................................................................12
5.1 Child poverty.....................................................................................12 5.2 Income deprivation affecting children ...............................................14 5.3 Fuel poverty ......................................................................................15 5.4 Income deprivation affecting older people ........................................17
6. Educational Attainment...........................................................................18
6.1 Key stage one, two and four .............................................................18 6.4 Attainment by socioeconomic background........................................21
7. Worklessness...........................................................................................22
7.1 Worklessness ...................................................................................22 7.2 Unemployment..................................................................................23
8. Lincoln Economy.....................................................................................25
8.1 Local units and enterprises by sector ...............................................25 8.2 Local units and enterprises by employment size ..............................27 8.3 Employed residents by occupation ...................................................28
9. Health........................................................................................................30
9.1 Male life expectancy .........................................................................30 9.2 Female life expectancy .....................................................................31 9.3 Heart disease and stroke..................................................................32 9.4 Cancer ..............................................................................................33 9.5 Self harm ..........................................................................................34 9.6 Alcohol..............................................................................................35 9.7 Drugs ................................................................................................35 9.8 Obesity..............................................................................................36 9.9 Suicide and undetermined injury.......................................................37 9.10 Injuries to children...........................................................................38
10. Crime.......................................................................................................39 11. Emissions...............................................................................................41
11.1 City Council Emissions ...................................................................41
2
11.2 Citywide Emissions.........................................................................42 12. Summary Points.....................................................................................44
12.1 Population.......................................................................................44 12.2 Poverty............................................................................................44 12.3 Educational attainment ...................................................................44 12.4 Worklessness .................................................................................45 12.5 Lincoln economy.............................................................................45 12.6 Health .............................................................................................45 12.7 Crime ..............................................................................................46 12.8 Emissions .......................................................................................46
3
1. Introduction The Lincoln Drivers Report is published twice a year. It encompasses a breadth of information, and focuses on key demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of, and challenges to, Lincoln. In doing this, it acts as the evidence base behind the City of Lincoln Council’s strategic priorities. It uses information sourced from the City of Lincoln Council, as well as other organisations. This enables the city council, along with all its partners, to use this information when developing strategic direction, creating and implementing policy, and ensuring resources continue to be targeted where needed most. It is a valuable source of summary information, all contained in one document. It draws and collates information from across the full range of quality of life indicators, and so paints a unique picture of what it is like to live, and work, in Lincoln. The report is therefore a vital tool to use when planning the delivery of services across the public sector.
Further information If you have any questions or comments concerning this report, or require further information, please use the contact details below: Write to: James Wilkinson Policy and Strategic Information Officer City of Lincoln Council City Hall Beaumont Fee Lincoln LN1 1DD Email: [email protected]
4
2. Executive Summary Lincoln’s population grew considerably over the last three decades, from 76,800 in 1982, to 94,600 residents in 2012. Our population increase over the last decade represented one of the largest experienced by our nearest neighbours. The inflow of students and migrant workers contributed to this. Poverty remained a significant issue in the city, with high rates of relative child poverty, and household fuel poverty. Areas of the city also featured within the most 5% of deprived areas for income deprivation affecting children, and income deprivation affecting older people. Educational attainment continued to lag behind county rates, with the gap in attainment greatest at Key Stage 4. There appeared to be a particular challenge at Key Stage 4 regarding English and Maths attainment. Evidence also suggested children eligible for free school meals were more likely to have lower Key Stage 4 attainment, and higher school absence, than their more affluent peers were. The Lincoln economy had the greatest reliance on the retail sector amongst our nearest neighbour authorities (in terms of proportion of businesses). In addition, Lincoln had the second highest proportion of elementary occupations (mainly routine-tasks). There had been some successes concerning health. Lincoln’s female life expectancy had increased, and the rate of early deaths due to heart disease and stroke had reduced over the last few years. Nevertheless, male life expectancy remained static, and life expectancies for both genders remained low compared to our nearest neighbours. Despite improvement, early deaths due to heart disease and stroke were relatively high, as were early deaths due to cancer. There was also a significant issue regarding self-harm and suicide, with Lincoln having the highest rates of these incidents amongst our nearest neighbours. Hospital stays due to alcohol, drug misuse, and injuries to children also appeared a concern. City of Lincoln Council emissions had reduced once again, and the proportion of city council emissions attributable to a green tariff increased, although fluctuations are largely attributable to electricity consumption throughout the year. In terms of estimated citywide emissions, there had also been a reduction, with Lincoln having had one of the lowest estimated emissions per capita amongst our nearest neighbours.
5
3. Map of Lincoln Source: City of Lincoln Council (2008)
6
Lincoln's Population from 1981 to 2012
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
Percentage Change in Population from 2002 to 2012
-1.9%
4.2% 4.5%
5.9% 6.1%
8.0%
10.4%
11.6%
14.1%
7.2%
6.4%6.7%6.6%
5.3%
1.8%1.3%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Bur
nley
Wyr
e For
est
Cop
elan
d
Wel
lingb
orou
gh
Che
ster
field
Can
nock
Cha
se
Ste
vena
ge
Car
lisle
Man
sfield
Wor
cest
er
Red
ditch
Pre
ston
Exe
ter
Linc
oln
Glo
uces
ter
Ipsw
ich
District
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Ch
an
ge
4. The Population of Lincoln
4.1 Population growth
Lincoln’s population grew considerably over the last three decades, from 76,800 residents in 1982, to 94,600 residents in 2012. This was an overall population increase of 23.7%. There was a substantial increase in residents since 2000. Between 2000 and 2012, the population of Lincoln increased by 11.3% (9,600 residents in real terms)1. Source: NOMIS (2013)
Compared to Lincoln’s nearest neighbours, Lincoln had one of the largest population increases between 2002 and 2012 (10.4%). This gave Lincoln the third highest population increase amongst the 16 nearest neighbour groupings2. Source: NOMIS (2013)
1 NOMIS (2013) Mid 2013 Population Estimate
2 NOMIS (2013) Mid 2012 Population Estimate
7
Age Profile of Lincoln Residents
4.7% 4.8% 4.6%
8.0%
12.5%
8.3%
7.0%
6.1%6.5%
5.9%
5.0% 5.0%4.4%
3.1%2.6%
2.2% 2.2%
1.4%
5.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
0 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Age Profile
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f L
inc
oln
Re
sid
en
ts
4.2 Age profile of Lincoln
The most common age range for Lincoln was 20-24, accounting for 12.5% of the population, or 11,800 residents in total3. We know that much of the increase in population since 2001 was due to the growth in residents aged in their 20s, and that part of the reason for this was the expansion of the University of Lincoln over the same period4. Source: NOMIS (2013)
3 NOMIS (2013) Mid 2012 Population Estimates
4 City of Lincoln Council (2012) The Lincoln Drivers Report: Autumn 2012
8
Proportion of Residents aged 20-24
8.1%
10.7%
12.5%12.9%
7.1%6.8%6.4%6.3%6.3%6.1%6.0%6.0%5.7%5.5%
5.2%5.2%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Wel
lingb
orou
gh
Wyr
e For
est
Cop
elan
d
Che
ster
field
Red
ditch
Can
nock
Cha
se
Man
sfield
Burnley
Ste
vena
ge
Car
lisle
Glo
uces
ter
Ipsw
ich
Wor
cest
er
Preston
Linc
oln
Exe
ter
District
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f R
es
ide
nts
Number of Full-Time Students aged 16-74
16,285
14,915
11,184
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Cop
elan
d
Wel
lingb
orou
gh
Wyr
e For
est
Red
ditch
Bur
nley
Ste
vena
ge
Can
nock
Cha
se
Man
sfield
Che
ster
field
Car
lisle
Glo
uces
ter
Ipsw
ich
Wor
cest
er
Linc
oln
Pre
ston
Exe
ter
District
Nu
me
r o
f S
tud
en
ts
When compared with our nearest neighbour authorities, Lincoln had the second highest proportion of residents aged 20-24 (12.5%). Preston (10.7%) and Exeter (12.9%) also had high proportions of residents aged 20-24. This was likely to have been influenced by the number of students in these three areas, which each contain more than 10,000 full-time students aged 16-74 (the highest numbers amongst our nearest neighbour grouping). Source: NOMIS (2013)
Source: Neighbourhood Statistics (2013)
9
4.3 Ward level population
The most populous wards in the city were Carholme, Abbey, and Park. These populations also had high proportions of residents in their 20s. This was particularly the case in Carholme where almost two fifths of residents were in this age group5. NB. Ward level data represented 2011 population estimates, compared to other data in this report that referred to 2012 population estimates.
0-9 10-19 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80+
Abbey 10% 11% 28% 16% 13% 9% 6% 4% 4%
Birchwood 15% 12% 16% 13% 13% 11% 10% 6% 3%
Boultham 9% 11% 15% 12% 14% 13% 11% 8% 7%
Bracebridge 11% 13% 10% 12% 17% 15% 11% 7% 5%
Carholme 6% 20% 39% 10% 8% 7% 5% 3% 2%
Castle 10% 10% 20% 13% 13% 11% 10% 8% 6%
Glebe 14% 14% 15% 14% 14% 11% 10% 6% 3%
Hartsholme 11% 11% 12% 13% 15% 13% 13% 7% 5%
Minster 11% 13% 12% 11% 14% 12% 12% 8% 8%
Moorland 11% 13% 12% 11% 14% 13% 12% 8% 5%
Park 12% 11% 25% 15% 12% 10% 7% 4% 3%
LINCOLN 10% 13% 20% 13% 13% 11% 9% 6% 4% Source: ONS (2012) 2011 Census
Source: ONS (2012) 2011 Census
5 ONS (2012) Mid 2011 Population Estimates (2012)
0-9 10-19 20s 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80+ Total
Abbey 1,155 1,204 3,146 1,866 1,472 1,046 677 436 424 11,426
Birchwood 1,264 1,024 1,371 1,142 1,142 927 852 524 274 8,520
Boultham 708 844 1,124 885 1,069 944 829 561 501 7,465
Bracebridge 786 925 726 904 1,213 1,082 830 488 335 7,289
Carholme 779 2,857 5,396 1,382 1,108 956 743 452 302 13,975
Castle 726 749 1,492 1,006 966 851 728 570 452 7,540
Glebe 1,052 1,000 1,081 1,001 1,011 827 770 414 245 7,401
Hartsholme 681 695 798 847 970 857 827 451 345 6,471
Minster 784 965 908 775 1,002 845 877 569 562 7,287
Moorland 859 1,010 884 810 1,067 952 886 633 403 7,504
Park 1,023 981 2,187 1,327 1,062 843 564 378 298 8,663
LINCOLN 9,817 12,254 19,113 11,945 12,082 10,130 8,583 5,476 4,141 93,541
10
Number of National Insurance Registrations to Overseas Nationals in
Lincoln
450
1,057
754
976
906
1,128
875
1,184
1,3111,280
345
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2002
/3
2003
/4
2004
/5
2005
/6
2006
/7
2007
/8
2008
/9
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Reg
istr
ati
on
s
4.4 Migrant workers
The inflow of migrant workers fluctuated year on year, with 976 entering Lincoln in 2012/13. This was 7.7% higher than the 2011/12 rate, but numbers remained lower than the peak in 2006/07. It should be noted, not all migrant workers remain in an area, with some returning home, and others moving elsewhere in the country or world. This indicator is just a measure of inflow. Source: DWP (2013)
Of the 976 migrant workers that entered Lincoln in 2012/13:
• 62.8% (608) were from European Union Accession states
• 14.9% (144) were from other European Union states
• 14.8% (143) were from Asia and the Middle East
• 3.7% (36) were from Africa
• 2.9% (28) were from the Americas
• 0.9% (9) were from other European states
11
Migrant Workers by Country of Origin 2012/13
(Not all countries included due to small numbers)
5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 14 14 1423 23
30 32 33 34
69
180
229
136
0
50
100
150
200
250
Egypt
Afgha
nist
an
Pakista
n
Rom
ania
Rus
sian
Fed
erat
ion
Iran
Vietn
am
Mex
ico
Rep
of I
rela
nd
Can
ada
Ger
man
y
Net
herla
nds
Eston
ia
Mal
aysia
USA
Franc
e
Gre
ece
Hun
gary
Italy
Nig
eria
Spain
Indi
a
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Portu
gal
Chi
na
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Polan
d
Country of Origin
Nu
mb
er
of
Mig
ran
t W
ork
es
The most common country of origin of migrant workers travelling to Lincoln in 2012/13 was Poland (229), followed by Lithuania (180), Latvia (136) and China (69). Source: DWP (2013)
12
5. Poverty
5.1 Child poverty
The indicator previously recorded as ‘relative child poverty’ is now referred to as ‘children in low-income families’. This change occurred in the 2010 dataset, published in 2013. This measure shows the proportion of children living in families in receipt of out-of-work benefits or in receipt of tax credits where their reported income is less than 60% of the UK median income. In 2011, there were 4,490 children in Lincoln living in low-income families, accounting for 23.8% of children. When just under 16s were looked at, the rate increased marginally to 24.7% (3,995 children). Of the children living in low-income households in Lincoln:
• 68.5% lived in lone parent families
• 35.0% were aged 0-4
• 31.2% were aged 5-10
• 22.8% were aged 11-15
• 11.0% were aged 16-196. The highest concentration was in Birchwood, where one third of children were from low-income households, followed by Glebe where 30% of children were. Rates were also high in Abbey, Moorland and Park. In total, there were an estimated 2,980 children living in low-income households in these areas7. Source: HMRC (2013)
6 HMRC (2013) Children in Low-Income Families
7 HMRC (2013) Children in Low-Income Households 2011
13
Proportion of Children Living in Low-Income Households
15.6% 16.1%
17.7% 17.8%18.9% 19.2%
19.8% 19.9%20.6%
21.7% 21.7%22.9%
26.8%
23.8%
18.4% 18.4%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Exete
r
Car
lisle
Worc
este
r
Cop
elan
d
Red
ditch
Can
nock
Chas
e
Wyr
e For
est
Glouc
este
r
Wellin
gbor
ough
Steve
nage
Che
ster
field
Ipsw
ich
Prest
on
Man
sfie
ld
Linc
oln
Burnl
ey
District
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f C
hil
dre
nWith a rate of 23.8%, Lincoln had the second highest proportion of children living in low-income households amongst our nearest neighbours. Source: HMRC (2013)
14
5.2 Income deprivation affecting children
There were three areas in Lincoln that featured within the most 5% of deprived areas in England. These areas were western Birchwood (‘29’), Boultham Moor (‘73’) and an area of St. Giles (‘52’)8. Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index 2010 Source: DCLG (2012)
8 DCLG (2012) Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index
15
5.3 Fuel poverty
The UK Government recently set out a new definition of fuel poverty called the ‘Low Income High Costs framework’. The information below was based on this definition. Because this was a new indicator, there was no historical trending available. Under the new definition, a household was said to be in fuel poverty if:
• They have required fuel costs that are above the average (national median level)
• Were they to spend that amount, they would be left with a residual income below the official poverty line9
Lincoln (16.3%) had a higher proportion of households estimated to be in fuel poverty than in the East Midlands and England. In total, this accounted for 6,687 households out of the 41,106 households in the city10. Carholme, Abbey and Park had the highest numbers of households experiencing fuel poverty. This was followed by Castle, Minster and Boultham. An interesting point to note was that wards with high levels of fuel poverty did not always correlate with areas of high deprivation. For example, Birchwood, Moorland and Glebe all contained pockets of high deprivation, but were relatively low in terms of fuel poverty. Source: DECC (2013)
9 DECC (2013) August 2013 Statistics Release Definition
10 DECC (2013) August 2013 Low Income High Cost data
16
Proportion of Households that are Fuel Poor
6.5%
9.8%
11.7% 11.8%12.3%
13.9% 14.1%
16.3%15.4%
13.4%13.4%13.2%
12.9%
11.0%10.9%
9.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Ste
venag
e
Glouce
ster
Redd
itch
Exe
ter
Cope
land
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Cann
ock Chas
e
Carli
sle
Ches
terfi
eld
Ipsw
ich
Worc
ester
Pre
ston
Wyr
e For
est
Man
sfie
ld
Bur
nley
Linc
oln
District
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f H
ou
se
ho
lds
With a rate of 16.3%, Lincoln had the highest fuel poverty rate amongst our nearest neighbours. Source: DECC (2013)
17
5.4 Income deprivation affecting older people
There were three areas in Lincoln that featured within the most 5% of deprived areas in England. These were an area of St. Giles (‘52’), Boultham Moor (‘73’) and an area to the north east of Boultham ward, close to the city centre (‘32’)11. Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index 2010 Source: DCLG (2012)
11
DCLG (2012) Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index
18
Educational Attainment in 2011/12
49.0%
80.6% 81.2%79.1%
74.6%
62.1%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
KS1 KS2 KS4*
Key Stage
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f P
up
ils
Lincoln
Lincolnshire
6. Educational Attainment
6.1 Key stage one, two and four
Educational attainment in Lincoln remained lower than county rates. The gap between Lincoln and Lincolnshire was widest at Key Stage 4. Between 2010/11 and 2011/12, attainment dropped at both Key Stage 1 (from 75.5% to 74.6%) and Key Stage 4 (from 54.8% to 49.0%). In contrast, there was an increase at Key Stage 2 (from 69.0% to 79.1%)12. Source: LRO (2012) Educational Attainment *including English and Maths
12
LCC (2012) Educational Attainment cited by LRO (2013) KS1; KS2; KS4 attainment
19
Proportion of KS4 Pupils achieving five or more GCSEs A*-C in
2011/12
49.0%
62.1%
84.3% 85.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
KS4 including English and Maths KS4 any subject
Measure
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f K
S4 P
up
ils
Lincoln
Lincolnshire
An interesting point to note was the difference between two different measures of Key Stage 4 attainment. The first, (shown in the chart above), was the proportion of Key Stage 4 students achieving five or more GCSEs grade A*-C including English and Maths (Lincoln: 49.0%, Lincolnshire: 62.1%). The second was the same measure, except it did not include English and Maths as a requirement (Lincoln: 84.3%, Lincolnshire: 85.9%). For the latter measure, the gap between Lincoln and Lincolnshire was much narrower (only two percentage points). The gap increased to 13 percentage points when English and Maths were made a requirement, suggesting a lack of skills at Key Stage 4 in English and Maths in the city. Source: LRO (2012) Educational Attainment
20
Educational attainment differed in Lincoln. Bracebridge had consistently high rates of attainment across all three key stages. Other areas that scored particularly well were Boultham (for Key Stage 2), Hartsholme (for Key Stage 1 and Key Stage 2), and Minster (for Key Stage 4). In contrast, Birchwood had particularly low performance (for Key Stage 2 and Key Stage 4), along with Carholme (for Key Stage 2), Glebe (for Key Stage 1 and Key Stage 2), Minster (for Key Stage 1), Moorland (for Key Stage 1 and Key Stage 4), and Park (for Key Stage 4)13.
2011/12 Educational Attainment
Key Stage 1 Key Stage 2 Key Stage 4*
Abbey 78.9% 77.4% 40.2%
Birchwood 76.5% 73.2% 34.0%
Boultham 78.3% 89.2% 59.8%
Bracebridge 84.6% 92.1% 64.4%
Carholme 87.7% 71.1% 61.5%
Castle 70.7% 81.0% 48.2%
Glebe 63.5% 68.1% 43.2%
Hartsholme 85.2% 86.4% 53.1%
Minster 61.3% 84.1% 66.7%
Moorland 64.9% 74.0% 36.5%
Park 76.4% 78.1% 38.1%
Lincoln 74.6% 79.1% 49.0% Source: LRO (2012) Educational Attainment *including English and Maths
13
LCC (2012) Educational Attainment cited by LRO (2013) KS1; KS2; KS4 attainment
21
6.4 Attainment by socioeconomic background
There was evidence to suggest different outcomes depending on the socioeconomic background of young people. Data showed that, in Lincoln, children eligible for free school meals were more likely to have lower attainment than their more affluent peers were. Additionally, children eligible for free school meals were also likely to have a higher school absence rate14.
Key Stage 4 Attainment (English and Maths not mandatory)
2011/12
65.4%
84.3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
Overall attainment rate FSM eligible attainment rate
Category
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f P
up
ils
Source: NOMIS (2013)
School Absence Rates 2009/10
8.8%
6.5%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Overall absence rate FSM eligible absence rate
Category
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f P
up
ils
Source: ONS (2013)
14
ONS (2013) Child Poverty Tool
22
7. Worklessness
7.1 Worklessness
In May 2013, there were 8,530 residents experiencing worklessness in Lincoln. This was 6.0% lower than in May 2012. Generally, Lincoln tended to follow similar trends to the region and country.
Worklessness Rate
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Feb-0
0
Feb-0
1
Feb-0
2
Feb-0
3
Feb-0
4
Feb-0
5
Feb-0
6
Feb-0
7
Feb-0
8
Feb-0
9
Feb-1
0
Feb-1
1
Feb-1
2
Feb-1
3
Month - Year
Rate
Lincoln
East Midlands
England
Source: NOMIS (2013)
The majority of people experiencing worklessness in Lincoln were claimants of Employment and Support Allowance and Incapacity Benefits, whereas unemployed people accounted for just over one third15.
Worklessness by Benefit Type (May 2013)
34.4% 31.3% 31.2%
50.7% 54.1% 53.9%
11.6% 11.1% 11.6%
3.3% 3.5% 3.4%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Lincoln East Midlands England
Area
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f W
ork
les
sn
es
s
Others in income related benefits
Lone parents
ESA and Incapacity Benefit
Job seekers
Source: NOMIS (2013)
15
NOMIS (2013)
23
Unemployment Claimant Rate (October)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
year (October)
Rate
Lincoln
East Midlands
England
7.2 Unemployment
In October 2013, the unemployment claimant rate in Lincoln (4.2%) was higher than both the East Midlands (2.9%) and England (3.0%). Source: NOMIS (2013)
Lincoln’s unemployment claimant rate remained consistently higher than the England rate. Lincoln’s rate also increased at a faster pace than the national rate, peaking in October 2012 (1.3 percentage points above the national average), and remaining high in October 2013 (1.2 percentage points above the national average)16.
The Number of Percentage Points Lincoln's Unemployment
Claimant Rate is Higher than the England Rate
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year (October)
Perc
en
tag
e P
oin
t D
iffe
ren
ce
Source: NOMIS (2013)
16
NOMIS (2013)
24
Unemployment Claimant Rate (August 2013)
1.9%
2.8% 2.9%
3.4% 3.4% 3.5%
4.0% 4.0%
4.5% 4.6%4.2%
3.7%
3.6%
3.1%3.1%
2.6%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Exe
ter
Carli
sle
Cann
ock Chas
e
Cope
land
Worc
ester
Redd
itch
Ches
terfi
eld
Pre
ston
Wyr
e For
est
Ste
venag
e
Glouce
ster
Ipsw
ich
Man
sfie
ld
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Linc
oln
Bur
nley
District
Ra
teLincoln, with a rate of 4.5%, had the second highest unemployment claimant rate amongst our nearest neighbours. Burnley had the highest, with a marginally higher rate of 4.6%. Source: NOMIS (2013)
25
Distribution of Local Units* by Sector in Lincoln (2013)
9.4%
3.9%
18.0%
8.0%
3.7% 3.4%
9.4%
5.5%
2.2%
10.5%
7.2%
3.2%
2.3%
2.8%
4.9%4.8%
0.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Agr
icultu
re, f
ores
try &
fish
ing
Pro
ductio
n
Cons
truction
Mot
or tr
ades
Whol
esale
Reta
il
Trans
port &
sto
rage
(inc
. pos
tal)
Accom
mod
ation
& fo
od ser
vice
s
Info
rmat
ion
& com
muni
catio
n
Finan
ce &
insu
ranc
e
Pro
perty
Profe
ssional
, scien
tific &
tech
nical
Bus
ines
s adm
inist
ratio
n an
d su
ppor
t ser
vices
Public
adm
inist
ratio
n an
d de
fence
Edu
catio
n
Heal
th
Arts
, ent
erta
inm
ent,
recr
eatio
n an
d oth
er ser
vices
Sector
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f L
oc
al U
nit
s
8. Lincoln Economy
8.1 Local units and enterprises by sector
There were 3,250 local units and PAYE based enterprises* in Lincoln. Of these, 18.0% were in the retail sector, followed by 10.5% in the health sector, 9.4% in the construction sector, and 9.4% in the professional, scientific and technical sector. In comparison with our nearest neighbour authorities (see graph on next page), Lincoln had a very high reliance on retail as a proportion of all local units17. This could have been influenced by the geographic characteristics of Lincoln. Lincoln is an urban area in a large rural county, with a significant economic pull. Many people living outside of the city rely on Lincoln as a retail centre. Source: ONS (2013) *A local unit includes local branches of national chains.
17
ONS (2013) UK Business: Activity, Size and Location 2013
Distribution of Local Units* or PAYE Based Enterprises by Sector in Lincoln in 2013
26
Retail Units as a Proportion of All Local Units and PAYE Based Enterprises
(2013)
10.0% 10.1% 10.4%
11.7% 11.7%12.2%
13.6% 13.6%14.3%
18.0%
15.0%14.8%
13.3%13.1%13.1%
8.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Cope
land
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Redd
itch
Ste
venag
e
Cann
ock Chas
e
Carli
sle
Wyr
e For
est
Ipsw
ich
Glouce
ster
Ches
terfi
eld
Exe
ter
Pre
ston
Man
sfie
ld
Bur
nley
Worc
ester
Linc
oln
District
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f A
ll L
oc
al U
nit
s
Source: ONS (2013)
27
Distribution of Local Units or PAYE Based Enterprises by
Employment Size in Lincoln in 2013
17.9%
12.3%8.8%
2.8% 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2%
55.3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
0 - 4 5 - 9 10 - 19 20 - 49 50 - 99 100 -
249
250 -
499
500 -
999
1,000 +
Employment Size
Pro
po
rtio
n
Local Units or PAYE Based Enterprises with 0-4 Employees in
2013
57.8% 58.7% 59.4% 60.1% 61.1% 62.4% 63.1% 63.1%
68.4% 68.6%72.8%
66.9%66.7%65.5%
55.3%55.1%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Exe
ter
Linc
oln
Man
sfie
ld
Ches
terfi
eld
Glouce
ster
Ipsw
ich
Worc
ester
Pre
ston
Bur
nley
Redd
itch
Carli
sle
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Ste
venag
e
Cann
ock Chas
e
Wyr
e For
est
Copeland
District
Pro
po
rtio
n
8.2 Local units and enterprises by employment size
Most of the organisations in Lincoln were small, with less than five employees. The numbers of businesses tapered off the higher the employment size was, with only 0.2% of enterprises in the city employing more one thousand employees or more. However, when compared with our nearest neighbour authorities, we had the second lowest proportion of small organisations18. Source: ONS (2013)
Source: ONS (2013)
18
ONS (2013) Business Demography 2013
28
Distribution of Employed Residents in Lincoln by Occupation
10.0%
7.4%
13.5%
9.4%
15.1%
12.0%
10.7%
11.1%
10.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Ma
na
ge
rs,
Dir
ecto
rs a
nd
Se
nio
r
Offic
ials
Pro
fessio
na
l
Occu
pa
tio
ns
Asso
cia
te
Pro
fessio
na
l
an
d T
ech
nic
al
Occu
pa
tio
ns
Ad
min
istr
ative
an
d
Se
cre
tari
al
Occu
pa
tio
ns
Skille
d
Tra
de
s
Occu
pa
tio
ns
Ca
rin
g,
Le
isu
re a
nd
Oth
er
Se
rvic
e
Occu
pa
tio
ns
Sa
les a
nd
Cu
sto
me
r
Se
rvic
e
Occu
pa
tio
ns
Pro
ce
ss,
Pla
nt a
nd
Ma
ch
ine
Op
era
tive
s
Ele
me
nta
ry
Occu
pa
tio
ns
Occupation
Pro
po
rtio
n
8.3 Employed residents by occupation
The two most prominent occupation types for employed Lincoln residents were elementary occupations, which accounted for 15.1% of all employed residents, and professional occupations, which accounted for 13.5% of all employed residents19. The Office for National Statistics defined elementary occupations as mostly routine-tasks that often did not require formal educational qualifications, but would usually have an associated short period of formal experience-related training20. In comparison with our nearest neighbours (see graph on next page), Lincoln had one of the highest proportions of residents employed in elementary occupations. Source: ONS (2013)
19
ONS (2013) UK Business: Activity, Size and Location 2013 20
ONS (2013) ONS SOC Specific Unit: 9. Elementary Occupations
29
Proportion of Residents in Employment working in Elementary Occupations
11.9% 12.0% 12.2% 12.3% 12.5% 12.5% 12.7% 12.7%
13.8%14.3%
14.7% 15.2%15.1%
13.2%
11.5%11.4%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Ste
venag
e
Wyr
e For
est
Worc
ester
Glouce
ster
Cann
ock Chas
e
Cope
land
Ches
terfi
eld
Exe
ter
Redd
itch
Bur
nley
Carli
sle
Pre
ston
Ipsw
ich
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Linc
oln
Man
sfie
ld
District
Pro
po
rtio
n
Source: ONS (2013)
30
9. Health
9.1 Male life expectancy
Lincoln had one of the lowest male life expectancies amongst our nearest neighbours. The difference between Lincoln and the highest performing area, Wellingborough, was 2.3 years; putting Lincoln 2.9% behind Wellingborough. Lincoln’s male life expectancy had seen year on year increases, although between 2008-10 and 2009-11, it remained static21.
Male Life Expectancy in Lincoln in 2009-11
77.2 77.2 77.3
77.9 78.078.2
79.4 79.579.178.978.778.678.678.5
77.7
75.6
73.0
74.0
75.0
76.0
77.0
78.0
79.0
80.0
Bur
nley
Pre
ston
Linc
oln
Ches
terfi
eld
Glouce
ster
Man
sfie
ld
Cope
land
Carli
sle
Cann
ock Chas
e
Wyr
e For
est
Worc
ester
Redd
itch
Ipsw
ich
Ste
venag
e
Exe
ter
Wellin
gboro
ugh
District
Ye
ars
Source: DoH (2013)
21
DoH (2013) Local Authority Profiles
31
9.2 Female life expectancy
Lincoln also had one of the lowest female life expectancies amongst our nearest neighbours. The difference between Lincoln and the highest performing district, Exeter, was 1.5 years; putting Lincoln 1.8% behind Exeter. Female life expectancy in Lincoln increased over recent years, and from 2008-10 to 2009-11, life expectancy increased from 81.3 years to 81.9 years22.
Female Life Expectancy in Lincoln in 2009-11
80.6
81.0
81.9 81.9
82.5
83.483.283.283.2
83.182.882.882.882.7
81.681.2
79.0
79.5
80.0
80.5
81.0
81.5
82.0
82.5
83.0
83.5
84.0
Bur
nley
Pre
ston
Cope
land
Man
sfie
ld
Linc
oln
Carli
sle
Ches
terfi
eld
Cann
ock Chas
e
Wyr
e For
est
Redd
itch
Ste
venag
e
Glouce
ster
Worc
ester
Ipsw
ich
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Exe
ter
District
Years
Source: DoH (2013)
22
DoH (2013) Local Authority Profiles
32
9.3 Heart disease and stroke
Lincoln had one of the highest rates of early deaths due to heart disease and stroke (71.9 early deaths per 100,000 people). Despite this, Lincoln’s rate was still substantially lower than the highest rates of 90.8 and 82.1 in Burnley and Preston respectively. Despite this relatively high rank, early deaths from heart disease and stroke reduced in recent years, from a rate of 108.6 in 2004-0623.
The Rate of Early Deaths from Heart Disease and Stroke per 100,000
people in 2009-11
58.0 58.1 59.2
69.4
90.882.175.773.571.9
67.967.865.365.363.361.9
50.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Exete
r
Steve
nage
Can
nock
Cha
se
Wel
lingb
orou
gh
Wyr
e For
est
Ipsw
ich
Car
lisle
Red
ditc
h
Glo
ucest
er
Wor
cester
Mans
field
Linc
oln
Cop
elan
d
Che
ster
field
Preston
Burnley
District
Years
Source: DoH (2013)
23
DoH (2013) Local Authority Profiles
33
9.4 Cancer
With a rate of 132 per 100,000 people, Lincoln had the second highest rate of early deaths from cancer, falling just behind Burnley with a rate of 140 per 100,000 people. Lincoln’s rate of early deaths due to cancer remained relatively constant in recent years, fluctuating between rates of 129 and 135 since 2004-0624.
The Rate of Early Deaths from Cancer per 100,000 people in 2009-11*
105 105105
118
140132127120119118116115112109
106100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Wel
lingb
orou
gh
Wor
cester
Red
ditc
h
Wyr
e For
est
Ipsw
ich
Ste
vena
ge
Exe
ter
Car
lisle
Can
nock
Cha
se
Man
sfield
Glo
uces
ter
Cop
elan
d
Che
ster
field
Pre
ston
Linc
oln
Bur
nley
District
Years
Source: DoH (2013) *Decimal places were removed from the graph for readability
24
DoH (2013) Local Authority Profiles
34
9.5 Self harm
With a rate of 485 per 100,000 people, Lincoln had the highest rate of hospital stays for self harm amongst our nearest neighbours25.
The Rate of Hospital Stays for Self Harm per 100,000 people in 2011/12
218231
211
318
485
411393381
346297285282274259
231
129
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Steve
nage
Wel
lingb
orou
gh
Can
nock
Cha
se
Ipsw
ich
Red
ditc
h
Man
sfield
Wor
cester
Wyr
e For
est
Car
lisle
Exete
r
Preston
Glo
ucest
er
Cop
elan
d
Burnle
y
Che
ster
field
Linco
ln
District
Ye
ars
Source: DoH (2013) *Decimal places were removed from the graph for readability
25
DoH (2013) Local Authority Profiles
*
35
9.6 Alcohol
With a rate of 2,241 per 100,000 people, Lincoln’s rate of alcohol related hospital stays was relatively high in comparison to our nearest neighbours.
The Rate of Alcohol Related Hospital Stays per 100,000 people in
2011/12
1792 18481659
2185
32452875
24172290224120482043200919731882
1868
1470
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Steve
nage
Wel
lingb
orou
gh
Wyr
e For
est
Wor
cester
Exete
r
Can
nock
Cha
se
Red
ditc
h
Ipsw
ich
Glo
uces
ter
Car
lisle
Cop
elan
d
Linc
oln
Man
sfield
Che
ster
field
Preston
Burnley
District
Ye
ars
Source: DoH (2013) *Decimal places were removed from the graph for readability
9.7 Drugs
Lincoln had the highest estimated rate of opiate and/or crack cocaine users amongst our nearest neighbours, with an estimated rate of 24.9 users per 1,000 people. Lincoln’s rate was 33.2% higher than the next highest ranking authority (Burnley)26.
Estimated users of opiate and / or crack cocaine aged 15-64, crude rate
per 1,000 people in 2010/11
7.1 7.56.1
12.5
24.9
18.717.8
14.113.7
10.910.79.28.78.38.3
5.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Red
ditch
Cop
eland
Wyr
e For
est
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Exete
r
Steve
nage
Can
nock
Chase
Ipsw
ich
Car
lisle
Preston
Glo
ucest
er
Che
sterfi
eld
Worc
ester
Mans
field
Burnle
y
Linco
ln
District
Years
Source: DoH (2013)
26
DoH (2013) Local Authority Profiles
*
36
9.8 Obesity
Lincoln’s high rate of obesity amongst Year 6s (22.9%) was similar to the estimated proportion of obese adults (23.9%). Nevertheless, in terms of ranking, Lincoln’s Year 6 obesity rate was much higher, in relative terms with our nearest neighbours, than the city’s estimated adult obesity rate27.
Proportion of School Children in Year 6 estimated to be Obese in
2011/12
16.4 17.116.4
21.7
24.722.922.922.522.519.519.519.119.018.818.6
16.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Pre
ston
Exete
r
Ste
venag
e
Redd
itch
Carli
sle
Ipsw
ich
Worc
ester
Man
sfie
ld
Ches
terfi
eld
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Glouce
ster
Bur
nley
Wyr
e For
est
Linc
oln
Cann
ock Chas
e
Cope
land
District
Years
Source: DoH (2013)
Proportion of Adults estimated to be Obese in 2006-2008
23.6 24.1
21.7
26.529.128.627.927.726.9
26.025.725.624.524.524.3
20.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Pre
ston
Exe
ter
Linc
oln
Worc
ester
Carli
sle
Ipsw
ich
Burnle
y
Man
sfie
ld
Cope
land
Ste
venag
e
Ches
terfi
eld
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Wyr
e For
est
Glouce
ster
Redd
itch
Cann
ock Chas
e
District
Years
Source: DoH (2013)
27
DoH (2013) Local Authority Profiles
37
9.9 Suicide and undetermined injury
Lincoln had the highest rate of deaths from suicide and undetermined injury amongst our nearest neighbours. The suicide rate in Lincoln was double the regional average (7.4), and meant Lincoln was the worst ranking local authority in England. In real terms, this accounted for 39 deaths due to suicide and undetermined injury in 2008-1028.
Rate of Mortality from Suicide and Undetermined Injury per 100,000
people to 2008-10
4.6
6.5
7.6 7.88.2
9.710.5 10.6 10.7
11.612.1
12.6
15.2
7.07.3 7.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Ste
venag
e
Cheste
rfield
Wyr
e For
est
Man
sfie
ld
Worc
ester
Exe
ter
Cope
land
Bur
nley
Carli
sle
Ipsw
ich
Cann
ock Chas
e
Redd
itch
Glouce
ster
Pre
ston
Linc
oln
District
Rate
Source: DoH (2013)
28
DoH (2013) Local Authority Profiles
38
9.10 Injuries to children
With a rate of 195.5 injuries in children per 10,000 children, Lincoln’s rate was slightly behind Burnley – the highest ranking authority for this indicator amongst our nearest neighbours29.
Rate of Hospital Admissions for Uninentional and Delibate Injuries
in Children aged 0-17 Years per 10,000 people aged 0-17 in 2011/12
195.5
123.2122.7121.7113.2111.1108.5108.5
99.698.998.3
165.0164.5
180.8179.2
205.5
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Glouce
ster
Wyr
e For
est
Exe
ter
Carli
sle
Ipsw
ich
Man
sfie
ld
Ches
terfi
eld
Worc
ester
Redd
itch
Pre
ston
Cope
land
Cann
ock Chas
e
Ste
venag
e
Linc
oln
Bur
nley
District
Ra
te
Source: PH England (2013)
29
PH England (2013) Violence Profiles
39
10. Crime The number of offences in Lincoln reduced from 15,127 in 2002/03 to 9,780 in 2012/13; this was a decrease of 35.3%.
Number of Offences in Lincoln
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
Year
Nu
mb
er
Source: ONS (2013)
This substantial decrease in offences was reflective of other large decreases across our nearest neighbours. Lincoln had the fifth lowest proportionate decrease30.
Proportionate Decrease in Number of Offences between 2002/03 and
2012/13
20.6%
28.2%29.6%
48.9%52.3%
60.4%
45.6%41.9%41.6%41.2%39.0%38.8%38.3%
36.6%35.3%
34.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Ipsw
ich
Burnle
y
Ste
venag
e
Cann
ock Chas
e
Linc
oln
Exe
ter
Wyr
e For
est
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Carli
sle
Pre
ston
Cope
land
Worc
ester
Glouce
ster
Redd
itch
Ches
terfi
eld
Man
sfie
ld
District
Pro
po
rtio
nate
Decre
ase
Source: ONS (2013)
30
ONS (2013) Offences
40
Number of Offences in Lincoln in 2012/13
1,329
348
142 137
745
1,768
156
2
639
820868
11269
431
60
482635
1,037
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
All ot
her t
heft offe
nces
Bicyc
le th
eft
Crim
inal d
amag
e an
d arson
Dom
estic b
urglar
y
Dru
g of
fenc
es
Fraud
offe
nces
Hom
icide
Misce
llane
ous c
rimes
aga
inst soc
iety
Non-
dom
estic
bur
glar
y
Pos
sess
ion o
f wea
pons
offe
nces
Pub
lic o
rder
offe
nces
Robb
ery
Sex
ual o
ffenc
es
Sho
pliftin
g
Theft
from th
e pe
rson
Veh
icle o
ffenc
es
Violenc
e with
inju
ry
Violenc
e with
out inju
ry
Offence
Nu
mb
er
When we look at the types of offences committed in Lincoln, shoplifting (1,768 offences), criminal damage and arson (1,329) ‘other’ theft offences (1,037) and vehicle offences (868) were the most common offence types31. Source: ONS (2013)
31
ONS (2013) Offences
41
11. Emissions
11.1 City Council Emissions
In 2008/09 the city council C02 equivalent emissions estimate was 2,502 tonnes. In 2012/13, this had reduced by 25.4% to 1,866 tonnes. This reduction was largely because of projects carried out across the city council, which had contributed to reducing our energy usage. The figures not only included services provided directly by the city council, but also services that had been contracted to external providers, such as Cory and Active Nation. As part of the city council’s commitment to the environment, electricity used by the city council comes from a Green Tariff (this does not necessarily include electricity used by contractors). In 2008/09, renewable energy from a Green Tariff accounted for 50.2% of city council emissions. This saw a reduction in 2011/12 to 44.5% because of a significant decrease in electricity usage (resulting in proportionately less C02 coming from a Green Tariff). In 2012/13, the estimated proportion increased to 52.3%, a similar proportion to two years previous32.
Total Tonnes of C02 Equivalent Emissions of the City Council
2,502
2,1682,062 2,016
1,866
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Year
To
nn
es
of
C0
2
Source: City of Lincoln Council (2012)
Proportion of City Council Emissions Attributable to a Green
Tarrif
50.2%50.6%
52.2%
44.5%
52.3%
40.0%
42.0%
44.0%
46.0%
48.0%
50.0%
52.0%
54.0%
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n
Source: City of Lincoln Council (2012)
32
City of Lincoln Council (2013) Emissions
42
11.2 Citywide Emissions
There were an estimated 4.7 tonnes of C02 emissions in Lincoln per capita. This showed a reduction from previous years, and the first time (since 2005 – the earliest point data was available for) it has dipped below 5.0 tonnes per capita. Most emissions in the city came from the industry and commercial sectors, with domestic usage appearing as the second most common cause of emissions. Lincolns usage per capita was amongst the lowest of our nearest neighbours33.
Tonnes of C02 Emissions per Capita in Lincoln
6.2 6.15.9 5.8
5.05.2
4.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
To
nn
es p
er
Cap
ita
Source: Ricardo-AEA, cited by Department for Energy and Climate Change (2013)
Estimated Tonnes of C02 Emissions by Sector
205.5
167.3
62.0
1.5-
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Industry and
Commercial Total
Domestic Total Transport Total N. LULUCF Net
Emissions
Sector
To
nn
es
LULUCF = Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Source: Ricardo-AEA, cited by Department for Energy and Climate Change (2013)
33
Ricardo-AEA, cited by Department for Energy and Climate Change (2013) Local CO2 emission estimates
43
Tonnes of C02 Emissions per Capita
4.2
4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3
5.96.3
8.2
5.6 5.7
4.4 4.5
6.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Ipsw
ich
Cope
land
Man
sfie
ld
Linc
oln
Cann
ock Chas
e
Glouce
ster
Exe
ter
Worc
ester
Redd
itch
Bur
nley
Ches
terfi
eld
Wyr
e For
est
Ste
venag
e
Pre
ston
Wellin
gboro
ugh
Carli
sle
District
To
nn
es p
er
Cap
ita
Source: Ricardo-AEA, cited by Department for Energy and Climate Change (2013)
44
12. Summary Points
12.1 Population
• Lincoln’s population grew considerably over the last three decades, from 76,800 in 1982, to 94,600 residents in 2012. Our population increase over the last decade represented one of the largest experienced amongst our nearest neighbours.
• Students played a large part in the city’s population growth, with almost 12,000 residents aged 20-24. Proportionately, this age group was one of the largest amongst our nearest neighbours.
• The inflow of migrant workers, particularly from central and eastern Europe, was also likely to have had an impact on the growth of the city’s population.
12.2 Poverty
• In 2011, there were 4,490 children in Lincoln living in low-income families, accounting for 23.8% of children. The majority were in lone parent families, with numbers skewed towards younger children. Lincoln ranked second highest for this amongst our nearest neighbours.
• There were three areas in Lincoln that featured within the most 5% of deprived areas in England for income deprivation affecting children. These were western Birchwood, Boultham Moor, and St. Giles.
• There were 6,687 households estimated to be in fuel poverty in Lincoln. Highest numbers of fuel poor households were in Carholme, Abbey and Park. Lincoln had the highest fuel poverty rate amongst our nearest neighbours.
• There were three areas in Lincoln that featured amongst the most 5% of deprived areas in England for income deprivation affecting older people. These were an area of St. Giles, Boultham Moor, and an area to the very north east of Boultham ward close to the city centre.
12.3 Educational attainment
• Educational attainment remained lower than county rates, with the gap between Lincoln and Lincolnshire being widest at Key Stage 4. There appeared to be a particular issue in the city with English and Maths at Key Stage 4.
• In Lincoln, evidence suggested children eligible for free school meals were likely to have lower Key Stage 4 attainment, and higher school absence, than their more affluent peers.
45
12.4 Worklessness
• There were 8,530 residents in Lincoln experiencing worklessness. The majority were claimants of Employment and Support Allowance, and Incapacity Benefits. People on unemployment benefit accounted for just over one third.
• The unemployment claimant rate in the city (4.2%) was relatively high in comparison to regional and national rates. It also increased at a faster pace than the national rate, scoring 1.2 percentage points above the national rate in October 2013. Lincoln had one of the highest unemployment claimant rates amongst our nearest neighbours.
12.5 Lincoln economy
• Of the 3,250 local units and PAYE based enterprises in Lincoln, 18.0% were in the retail sector, followed by 10.5% in the health sector, and 9.4% in the construction sector. Lincoln’s reliance on the retail sector was the highest amongst our nearest neighbours.
• The majority of businesses in the city employed 0-4 employees.
• The two most prominent occupation types for employed Lincoln residents were elementary occupations and professional occupations. Lincoln’s reliance on routine-task elementary occupations was second highest amongst our nearest neighbours.
12.6 Health
• Both male and female life expectancies were low in comparison to our nearest neighbours. Although female life expectancy had seen a recent improvement, male life expectancy has remained static.
• Early deaths due to heart disease and stroke reduced significantly over the last few years, although Lincoln still ranked high amongst our nearest neighbours.
• The early deaths due to cancer rate fluctuated over the last few years, neither particularly improving or getting worse. Lincoln had the second highest rate amongst our nearest neighbours.
• Lincoln had the highest rate of hospital stays for self harm amongst our nearest neighbours, and the highest rate of deaths from suicide and undetermined injury.
• Hospital stays due to alcohol was relatively high compared to our nearest neighbours, and the rate of drug misuse was estimated to be the highest.
• The rate of hospital admissions due to deliberate or unintentional injuries to children was also high, with Lincoln having the second highest rate amongst our nearest neighbours.
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12.7 Crime
• The number of offences in Lincoln reduced from 15,127 in 2002/03 to 9,780 in 2012/13; this was a decrease of 35.3%. This substantial decrease in offences was reflective of other large decreases across our nearest neighbours. Lincoln had the fifth lowest proportionate decrease.
• Shoplifting (1,768 offences), criminal damage and arson (1,329) ‘other’ theft offences (1,037) and vehicle offences (868) were the most common offence types.
12.8 Emissions
• From 2008/09 to 2012/13, the C02 equivalent emissions estimate reduced by 25.4% to 1,866 tonnes. This reduction was largely because of projects carried out across the city council that have contributed to reducing our energy usage.
• In 2008/09, renewable energy from a Green Tariff accounted for 50.2% of city council emissions. In 2012/13, the estimated proportion increased to 52.3%, a similar proportion to two years previous.
• There were an estimated 4.7 tonnes of C02 emissions in Lincoln per capita. This showed a reduction from previous years, and the first time (since 2005 – the earliest point data was provided for) it had dipped below 5.0 tonnes per capita.
• Most emissions in the city came from the industry and commercial sectors, with domestic usage appearing as the second most common cause for emissions. Our usage was amongst the lowest of our nearest neighbours.