The Knowledge Economy:The Knowledge Economy:the policy challenges the policy challenges

Luc SoeteUniversity of Maastricht

MERIThttp://www.merit.unimaas.nl

Knowledge Economy Forum III, The World Bank and the Government of Hungary, Improving Competitiveness Through a Knowledge-Based Economy, Budapest, March 23-26, 2004.

Outline

• First: a brief overview of some of the concepts relevant to the Knowledge-Based Economy, growth and international competitiveness

• Second, some learning from the past: knowledge enlightenment and development catching-up

• Third, main policy implications for the position of the ECA-countries within the framework of the emergence of a global knowledge-based economy

1. Trade, specialisation and growth

• Once there was economic paradise• Physical distance and welfare loss• Free trade as optimal solution: nothing else but the

application to the international world of free market principles

• International specialisation, international competitiveness and growth

• Technology/knowledge an external factor: accessible to all at no costs

(Neo-)Classical view on technology/ knowledge• Technological change drives economic growth (as

in both classical and neo-classical theory) in agriculture in industry, but is diverse.

• continuous as in case of Boston learning curve, • incremental improvements • radical, sometimes “clusters” of interrelated technologies • general purpose technologies

• Hence sometimes a smooth incremental process, sometimes accompanied by a lot of creative destruction (large turnover of firms, employees, managers)

Supply dominated view

• Black box vision “not to be opened except by scientists and engineers” (Freeman)

• Supply features of technologies imply that public support could be justified for basic research where social rate of return is higher than private one so that private firms underinvest in such research

• It are various supply bottlenecks associated with the distribution of the gains from technology which are likely to create mismatches (Ricardo’s famous reference to technological unemployment)

Knowledge-based economy and development• Demand based view: knowledge/technology

investments (of whatever form) are the result of endogenous decisions by firms, entrepreneurs, employees: support for uptake, diffusion, etc.

• Technology internationally accessible but crucial importance of tacit knowledge (human capital, learning, organisational knowledge)

• Particular role of ICT on codification of knowledge and tradability of services: new windows of opportunity for catching-up

2. Learning from the past: knowledge and catching-up• Neo-classical dominance in trade theory after

Heckscher and Ohlin till the 70’s and the emergence of new trade theory

• Technology accounts of trade flows provided the essential challenge and ingredient for new trade (and later on new growth) theory

• From trade to foreign investment and entry: what we know from the trade and development literature

The geographic outspreading of technologies as they mature

Source: Wells L (1972)

A schematic presentation of the U.S. trade position in the product life-cycle

U.S

. pos

ition

1 2 3 4

Experience & know-how

1 2 3 4

Capacity to use unskilled labor

Relative importance of locational advantages

1 2 3 4

Dynamic advantages

Comparative (static)

advantages

High

Low

Scientific knowledge

1 2 3 4

Source: Based on Perez and Soete (1988) Hirsch S (1967)

CHANGING REQUIREMENTS FOR ENTRYCHANGING REQUIREMENTS FOR ENTRYAS TECHNOLOGIES EVOLVE TO MATURITYAS TECHNOLOGIES EVOLVE TO MATURITY

Potential for market growth

1 2 3 4

Profit making capacity

1 2 3 4

Space for productivity improvement

1 2 3 4

High

Low

Investment cost (production facilities)

1 2 3 4

Source: Based on Perez (2003)

The limits of mature technologies for development:The limits of mature technologies for development:

DECREASING POTENTIAL OF TECHNOLOGIESDECREASING POTENTIAL OF TECHNOLOGIESAS THEY EVOLVE TO MATURITYAS THEY EVOLVE TO MATURITY

UNDERSTANDING BEHAVIOR AT THE CORE (Perez, 2003):Phases of evolution of a product and its industry

Changing focus, structure and basis for competition

PHASES1. Introduction

Stretching technologyPushing the market ceiling Finding cost advantages

RATIONALIZATIONRELOCATION

SHAKE-OUT and CONCENTRATIONStable structure of industry

(possibly oligopoly)

Scale of firmFinancial powerMarket capture Non-price factors

2. Early growth 3. Late growth 4. Maturity

PRODUCT PROCESS MARKET POWER STRETCHING

Deg

ree

of te

chno

logi

cal m

atur

ity a

nd m

arke

t sat

urat

ion

Time

Basis forcompetition

Stageof industry

Main focus

Process efficiency and qualityCost reduction (prices)Market expansion (segments)Brand differentiationDistribution chanels

DEVELOPMENTOF INDUSTRY

in fierce competition

ESTABLISH PRODUCTand market segments

Fight fordominant design

Product designMarket access

PRODUCTION AGREEMENTSJOINT VENTURES, LICENSESAUTONOMOUS COPYREJUVENATING INNOVATIONS

Cost advantages, financeLearning and/or copying capabilities

Profit enhancing attractionsthrough markets, externalities

and/or cost advantages

ADVANTAGEOUS OR PROTECTEDROLE IN THE STRUCTURE OF A WORLD FIRM

COMMERCIAL REPRESENTATIVE, PARTS PRODUCEROTHER (depending on paradigm)

Competence as supplierAccess to resources

and/or markets

KnowledgeLocal know-how

for “niche”

AUTONOMOUS ENTRY IN“FREE” COMPETITIONMODERNIZE TRADITIONAL INDUSTRY

PHASES1. Introduction 2. Early growth 3. Late growth 4. Maturity Time

CHANGING WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ENTRY (Perez 2003)

Characterof entry

Basis for entry

AS ACOMPLEMENT

AS PART OFSTRUCTURE

AS STRETCHINGSOLUTION

PROBABLYNONE

Interest indevelopingcountry firms

Deg

ree

of te

chno

logi

cal m

atur

ity a

nd m

arke

t sat

urat

ion

Learning from the past

• Industrial enlightenment: why island of knowledge development became an industrial revolution in 19th Century (Mokyr, 2003)

• Importance of interaction between “les savants et les fabriquants”: need for scientific proof on the part of manufacturers, need/hunger for application and understanding of scientific principles (Diderot’s encyclopedia, Lunar Society).

• Importance of knowledge diffusion for economic development and catching-up

3. Policy challenges for the ECA countries

• Further liberalisation of trade in goods and services, including financial deregulation

• Information and global “codified” knowledge diffusion (e.g. the entire genetic constitution of the human species, its genome, is available to all on the Web): “ICT” the first form of “global” technological change (David and Foray, 2002)

• Knowledge divide is more than ever linked to human capital or tacit knowledge

Old Globalisation trends: what’s new?• In terms of trade or investment flows: not much

but nevertheless major differences – Trade expansion driven by regional integration

• Sometimes government induced (EU)• Sometimes business induced (ASEAN)

– Trade in services– Direction of trade flows

• Triad dominant but with large imbalances • Emerging outside BRICS• Large parts more or less excluded

“New” Globalisation trendsCentral increased tradability of “intangibles”:

– Finance• No longer complement of trade or FDI flows• Agglomeration effects traditional financial centres

– International alliances between firms:• Production, after sales/marketing• R&D, Mergers and acquisitions

– Diffusion of information and knowledge• Through public organisations and transfer institutions • Through formal contractual arrangements (licences, technological payments)

– Migration/mobility of human “tacit” knowledge

Policy challenges

• Positioning of ECA countries within these new global trends, in particular with respect to knowledge-based activities

• Progress in absolute terms impressive, but in relative terms position has deteriorated

• New knowledge challenges:• FDI are moving out to China, India… FDI bypassing ECA

countries, in spite of tax-free zones• Human capital is moving out

• Need for national knowledge anchorage policies

Role of Nation State

– Quality of institutions is ultimately what matters– Importance of comparative learning: best practice

cases; why not use open method of coordination to improve performance

– “Activating” knowledge:• at labour, education, university level• at financial, entrepreneurial and human capital level

– Investing in knowledge infrastructure crucial for global access to knowledge and keeping scientists and engineers (see EU evidence)