The IPCC 4th assessment:Influence of Future Changes in Emissions

on Atmospheric Chemistry by 2030. Jérôme Drevet - Isabelle Bey

Frank Dentener - David Stevenson – Twan Van NoijeAnd all modelers:

J.F. Müller, Arlene Fiore, Tim Butler, Michael Gauss, Didier Hauglustaine, Kengo Sudo, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Oliver Wild, Veronica Montanaro, Jose M. Rodriguez, Martin G.

Schultz, Jean-François Lamarque

GEOS-CHEM meeting04-05-2004

IPCC – AR 4

The IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) will be completed in 2006.

Chapter 7 will focus on Coupling between Changes in the Climate

System and Biogeochemistry.

2 experiments are performed:

• Experiment I (delta O3 - RF): Examines past changes in ozone (1850-

2000) and for the future (by 2100)

• Experiment II (AQ - climate): Examines changes in atmospheric

composition by 2030 using a variety of models (CTMs and CCMs).

- tropospheric ozone

- N-deposition

- NO2 columns

24 Models

IASBKNMITM4TM5MATCH-MPIC-NCEPMATCH-MPIC-ECNWFUIO2LMDzSTOCHEM-HadGEMSTOCHEM-HadAM3GEOS-CHEMGISS

MOCAGE FRSGC_UCI

ULAQ GMIDAO GMICCM MOZECH

LLNL MOZART4

STOCED UM_CAM

CHASER CTMCHASER GCM

GEOS v7.01.02

GEOS3 - 30 verticallevels

4°x5° horizontalgrid resolution

IPCC4 Scenarios

Sim ID emissions

Meteo Description CH4 concentration

S1 CLE-2000 2000 Baseline : Current Legislation of Emissions (CLE) for 2000

1760 ppbv

S2 CLE-2030 2000 CLE for 2030 2088 ppbv

S3 MFR-2030 2000 MFR (Maximum Feasible Reduction) for 2030 : optimistic technology scenario.

1760 ppbv

S4 A2-2030 2000 A2 (the most ‘pessimistic’ IPCC SRES scenario), harmonized with IIASA emissions for 2000

2163 ppbv

S4s A2-2030 2000 A2 with ‘high’ ship emissions 2163 ppbv

S5 CLE-2030 2030 Climate Change Simulation. Prescribed SST data for 2030

2088 ppbv

Anthropogenic Emissions

Agriculture Industry Domestic

Emissions

Traffic TOTAL

CO(Tg CO)

- 38-41 34-74

238-185 139-387

195-171 50-300

471-397 223-761

NMVOC(Tg NMVOC)

- 39-46 40-71

29-24 18-40

48-44 15-65

116-114 73-176

NOx

(Tg NO2)

- 34-36 11-57

5-6 4-15

53-65 28-107

92-107 43-179

SO2

(Tg SO2)

- 88-90 15-148

10-8 4-20

11-16 14-32

109-114 33-200

NH3

(Tg NH3)

53-71

71-74

0.5-0.8 0.8-0.8

6-7 7-8

- 60-79 79-83

CLE-2000 CLE-2030 MFR-2030 A2-2030

O3 annual zonal mean (CLE-2000)

Annual Zonal Mean O3 S1Mask O3>150ppbv

Courtesy: David Stevenson

O3 Budget (CLE-2000)

Values in Tg O3

Model Production Loss P-L Deposition Strat. Calc. Strat. Model.CHASER_CTM 5042 4594 447 948 501 517CHASER_GCM 5032 4620 412 948 536 506FRSGC 5135 4733 401 907 505 555GEOS-CHEM 4490 3770 719 1016 296 508GFDL 5263 5087 176 963 787 939GMICCM 5331 5059 272 862 590 557GMIDAO 5124 4940 184 763 579 541gmigis 4722 4396 326 856 530 537LLNL-IMPACT 5432 5160 271 1014 742 739LMDzINCA 4912 4182 729 1232 502 ***LMDzINCAc 4931 4027 903 1227 324 ***NCAR 4964 4670 293 906 612 684STOCHEM_HadAM3 5331 4821 509 945 435 383TM4 4806 4594 211 720 508 504TM5 4580 4623 -43 827 871 ***UM_CAM 3922 3363 558 1172 614 550MOZECH 6920 6617 303 963 660 ***STOCHEM_HadGEM 5114 3757 1356 1507 151 ***ULAQ 5017 3639 1377 1491 114 688Average 5056 4561 495 1014 519 586

Ozone zonal mean - ΔO3 (S2-S1)

-10 -5 0 5 10 ppbv

Courtesy: David Stevenson

Ozone zonal mean - ΔO3 (S3-S1)

-10 -5 0 5 10 ppbv

Courtesy: David Stevenson

Ozone zonal mean - ΔO3 (S4-S1)

-20 -10 0 10 20 ppbv

Courtesy: David Stevenson

Annual NOy Deposition (Tg N)

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

NOy Deposition (CLE-2000)

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

CHASER (FRCGC)

TM4 (JRC)MOZART4 (NCAR)

GEOS-CHEM

mg N/m2/year

NOy Deposition (S1) – zoom over Europe

CHASER (FRCGC)

TM4 (JRC)MOZART4 (NCAR)

GEOS-CHEM

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

mg N/m2/year

Wet Deposition / Total deposition

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

NOy Wet deposition Evaluation

Courtesy: Frank Dentener CHASER (FRCGC)

TM4 (JRC)MOZART4 (NCAR)

GEOS-CHEM

0 100 200 300 400 500 ( mgN / m2 / year) 0 100 200 300 400 500

0 100 200 300 400 500 ( mgN / m2 / year) 0 100 200 300 400 500

Observations - EMEF Observations - EMEF

Observations - EMEF Observations - EMEF

Model

Model

Model

Model

R=0.78

R=0.81

R=0.70

R=0.84

Annual NHx Deposition (Tg N)

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

NHx Deposition (S1)

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

CHASER (FRCGC)

TM4 (JRC)MOZART4 (NCAR)

GEOS-CHEM

mg N/m2/year

Wet deposition/Total Deposition

Courtesy: Frank Dentener

N-Deposition in GEOS-CHEM: Comparisons between different runs

NOy Total deposition

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Simulations

Tg

N /

ye

ar

1996 (GEOS-STRAT - 4x5- standard emissions)

1996 (GEOS-STRAT -2x2.5 - standardemissions)

2000 (GEOS3 - 4x5 -standard emissions)

2000 (GEOS3 - 4x5 - CLE-2000 emissions)

2001 (GEOS4 - 2x2.5 -standard emissions)

Wet deposition / Total deposition

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

simulations

1996 (GEOS-STRAT - 4x5- standard emissions)

1996 (GEOS-START -2x2.5 - standardemissions)

2000 (GEOS3 - 4x5 -standard emissions)

2000 (GEOS3 - 4x5 - CLE-2000 emissions)

2001 (GEOS4 - 2x2.5standard emissions)

NHx Total deposition

0102030405060708090

Simulations

Tg

N /

yea

r

1996 (GEOS-STRAT -4x5 standard emissions)

1996 (GEOS-STRAT -2x2.5 - standardemissions)

2000 (GEOS3 - 4x5 -standard emissions)

2000 (GEOS3 - 4x5 -CLE-2000 emissions)

2001 (GEOS4 - 2x2.5standard emissions)

Wet deposition / Total deposition

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Simulations

1996 (GEOS-STRAT -4x5 - standardemissions)

1996 (GEOS-STRAT -4x5 standard emissions)

2000 (GEOS3 - 4x5standard emissions)

2000 (GEOS3 - 4x5 -CLE-2000 emissions)

2001 (GEOS4 - 2x2.5standard emissions)

NO2 column

Courtesy: Twan Van Noije

O3 simulation : - GEOS-CHEM is in the middle range in general - Production and loss rates in the low range- Decrease in concentration for the MFR-2030 scenario in the very high

range. Problem ?- In general it seems that the differences between all models are smaller

than for the previous IPCC.

Deposition :- NOy and NHX Global values and patterns in the middle range- Ratio wet deposition/total deposition in the low range. - Ratio wet deposition/total deposition varies a lot with the version of

GEOS meteorological fields.- Sulfur deposition in the middle range

Conclusion

The End

Ozone Surface Concentrations

S1-Sref S2-S1

S3-S1 S4-S1

-20 -10 -5 -2 0 2 5 10 20

ppb

Ozone Column

S1-Sref S2-S1

S3-S1 S4-S1

-15 -7 4 2 0 2 4 7 15

DU

N Emissions

0 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5gN/year

NOx NH3

IIASA-CLE-2000

S1-Sref S2-S1

S3-S1 S4-S1

-5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5 gN/m2/year

NOx emissions

S1-Sref S2-S1

S3-S1 S4-S1

-5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5 gN/m2/year

NOy deposition

S1-Sref S2-S1

S3-S1 S4-S1

-5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5 gN/m2/year

NH3 emissions

S1-Sref S2-S1

S3-S1 S4-S1

-5 -0.5 -0.05 -0.005 0 0.005 0.05 0.5 5 gN/m2/year

NHx deposition