Upload
others
View
3
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
The International, Secular Infant Mortality Decline
- The Dual Role of Resources
Department of Statistics Universitety of Dar es Salaam
December 2005
Gunnar Thorvaldsen Registreringssentral for historiske data
http://www.rhd.uit.no/
Estimated population size and infant mortality rate in post-war Tanzania
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Pop
x 10
00
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
IMR
per 1
000
PopulationIMR, 5 year
Doctoral candidate Bonaventure Ngowi, studying infant mortality and parity
Infant mortality study • As is well known both from historical studies of western countries and
current developing countries that the life conditions of the mother is a crucial factor with respect to improving children's health and survival chances. Whether she has the time, resources and knowledge to breast-feed and implement other measures of proper child care has time and again been shown to affect the infant mortality rates dramatically. Doctoral student Ngowi analyzes infant mortality in Tanzania with special reference to child spacing and parity. Since the number of children ever born and surviving is a variable in the Tanzanian census, we shall be able with multivariate statistics to analyse the relationships between infant mortality and the mothers' status in different types of families and households.
Administered by SEMUT Centre for Environment and Development studies
Main source of drinking water 2002
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Pipe
d Wate
r Pr
otecte
d Well
Unp
rotec
ted W
ell Pr
otecte
d Spri
ng
Unp
rotec
ted Spri
ng R
iver/S
tream
Pond
/Dam
Lake
Rain
Wate
r W
ater V
endo
rsH
ouse
hold
sUrbanRural
Literacy by age group in Tanzania 2002
3000000 2000000 1000000 0 1000000 2000000 3000000
5 - 9
15 - 19
25 - 29
35 - 39
45 - 49
55 - 59
65 - 69
75 - 79
Illiterate menLiterate menIlliterate womenLiterate women
. . . and the superstition surrounding infant care, here magical hut for curing sick babies, Dar es Salaam Village Museum
www.whc. ki. se
Norway and Sweden
CDR and IMR: Norway and Sweden 1738-1968 from inverse projection
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
1738
1748
1758
1768
1778
1788
1798
1808
1818
1828
1838
1848
1858
1868
1878
1888
1898
1908
1918
1928
1938
1948
1958
1968
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
IMR
CDR inverse
IMR projected
IMRM Sweden
W Sweden
Positive effects from resources • T. McKeown (The modern rise of population, 1976): Not health, but nutrition
behind the mortality decline • E. Fure (...en besynderlig Regelmæssighed, 2004): Mothers’ health across
generations • S. Sogner: Forestry and infant mortality decline in Rendalen • T. Bengtsson et al (Life under pressure : mortality and living standards in Europe
and Asia, 1700-1900, 2004): the short-term effects of economic stress on mortality • Japan’s IMR achievement: 1960 -> 30.7 per thousand / 1988 -> 4.8 per thousand • S. Hinderaker (Perinatal Mortality and anaemia in pregnancy in Northern Rural
Tanzania, 2003): Arm circumference as proxy for infant mortality in Arusha
Deceased 0-1 years by 100 live births
Infant mortality in a number of countries 1801-1900
Infant mortality in the Nordic countries till 1998
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1751 1767 1783 1799 1815 1831 1847 1863 1879 1895 1911 1927 1943 1959 1975 1991
IMR
NorwayDenmarkFinlandIcelandSwedenEng & Wales
Dead aged 0-1 in Norway 1876-1898 relative to live births
The country Rural Towns
Legitimate Illegitimate
Black: boys Red: girls
Main background factors for child mortality in the late 19th century and today
High Low
Developed countries today
Late 19th century US
High
3rd world countries today
3rd world countries in the 19th century
Low
Level of technical knowledge about health
Level of economic
development
Negative or no effect from resources • A. Perrenoud (‘La mortalité des enfant en Europe francophone: etat de la question’,
1994): Can infant mortality develop independently from the surrounding social, economic and cultural factors? Climate!
• O. Turpeinen (‘Infant mortality in Finland 1749-1865', 1979): “fluctuations from year to year showed little significant correlation with the extent of the harvest yields. The highest rates of infant mortality figures did not appear in the poorest but in relatively wealthy districts”
• R. Engelsen (Sosiale skilnader i mortalitet på landsbygda i Norge i åra 1802 og 1803, 1982): Higher mortality among farmers than among cottars
• Ó Garðarsdottir (Saving the Child, 2002): In Reykjavík, the higher social strata initially had higher infant mortality, but benefited sooner from the late 19th century improvements than the lower strata.
• England and France in the 19th century (Woods, 2000): Earlier decline for older children
than for infants • K. McQuillan (Culture, religion, and demographic behaviour : Catholics and Lutherans
in Alsace, 1750-1870, 1999): Occupational differentials in multivariate study are moderate, some effect for children of workers and servants, else little effect
• A. Brändström ("De kärlekslösa mödrarna" : spädbarnsdödligheten i Sverige under
1800-talet med särskilt hänsyn till Nedertorneå, 1984)
Infant mortality in Sweden 1848-1852
Infant mortality and social groups
Infant mortality in Nedertorneå, Sweden 1820-94 by social strata
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1820-24
25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94
IMR
Middle classPeasantsProletariat
Anders Brändström, Demographic Database, Umeå
Infant mortality in west European countries till 1998
0
50
100
150
200
25018
30
1837
1844
1851
1858
1865
1872
1879
1886
1893
1900
1907
1914
1921
1928
1935
1942
1949
1956
1963
1970
1977
1984
1991
1998
IMR
BelgiumNetherlandsNorwayFranceIrelandEng & Wales
• N. Scheper-Hughes (Death without weeping: the violence of everyday life in Brazil, 1992): The combined effect of economic and cultural factors.
• Haines & Preston, (Fatal years : child mortality in late nineteenth-century America, 1991): Relatively better child mortality among the black population.
• D. Reher: (‘Do parents really matter? Child health and development in Spain during the demographic transition’, 2003): Much greater impact from losing mother than losing father, especially educated mother.
• R Derosas (‘Watch Out for the Children! Differential Infant Mortality of Jews and Catholics in Nineteenth-Century Venice’, 2003): Poor, dense ghetto, but model mothers.
• Steady decline in infant mortality in Western Europe in the 20th century
independent of business cycles. • N. Hart (‘Famine, Maternal Nutrition and Infant Mortality: A Re-Examination
of the Dutch Hunger Winter’ 1993): Only the better-off were fecund, so perinatal mortality did not increase.
• N. Morgan (‘Infant mortality in the nineteenth-century Preston’, 2002): Industrial smoke and flies bringing contagion from horse dung affecting infant health negatively in Lancashire
• M. Federman et al (‘Industrialization and Infant Mortality’, 2005): Higher infant mortality in the areas with the most polluting industry in Indonesia
• C. Stoltenberg: Higher infant mortality among the children born to Pakistani cousins
Gross national product per person and infant mortality rates in four developing countries
GNP per person High IMR Low IMR
High ($ 7138 - 17016) Brazil (35) South Korea (8)
Low ($ 1516 - 3460) Bangladesh (70) Sri Lanka (16)
A. Kidanemariam: A Comparative Study of Infant Mortality in Four Developing Countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, South Korea and Sri Lanka. New York 2003
Infant mortality rates and key independent variables for four developing countries
Bangladesh Brazil Sri Lanka South Korea
GNP per inhabitant 1999 $ 1516 $ 7138 $ 3460 $ 17016
Gini 0.66 (1978) 0.60 (1976) 0.35 (1973) 0.34 / 0.31 (1
Female illiteracy 1980 83.3 27.2 20.5 11.2
Female illiteracy 1990 77.0 18.8 15.4 6.6
IMR 1985 per thousand 123 68 30 27
IMR 1999 per thousand 70 35 16 8
Sources: GNP and IMR 1999 from CIA World Factbook Kidanemariam A Comparative Study of Infant Mortality in Four Developing Countries: Bangladesh, Brazil, South Korea and Sri Lanka 2003
Background variables • Social equality • Welfare level • Urban / rural • Industrialization • Pollution • Medical services • Mothers’ health stations • Resourceful individuals • Politics
• Social status • Education • Nutrition • Breastfeeding • Infant care • Legitimacy • Religion • Ethnicity
References Denmark: Anne Løkke, Døden i barndommen, København: 1998 Grethe Banggaard, Befolkningsfremmede foranstaltninger og faldende barnedødelighet, Odense 2004. Iceland: Òlöf Garðarsdottir: Saving the Child. Regional, cultural and socio- economic aspects of the infant mortality decline in Iceland 1820-1940, 2002 Finland: Kari J. Pitkänen, ”Infant Mortality Decline in a Changing Society,” in Yearbook of Population Research in Finland 1983, 46-74. Sweden: Sören Edvinsson, Marie C Nelson, John Rogers: Dying Young. Swedishinfant and childhood mortality in review. Hygiea Internationalis. Norway: Rural infant mortality in nineteenth century Norway. Hygiea Internationhttp://www.liu.se/tema/inhph/journal/
Classic work on neonatology: http://www.neonatology.org/classics/
Tidsskrift for Den norske lægeforening 76 (1955), side 815-816
Dead infants (under one year) per 1000 live born
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1946-55 1946-50 1951-55 1953 1954
IMR
KautokeinoNorge
Dead infants aged 4 to 52 w eeks
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1946-55 1946-50 1951-55 1953 1954
Per 1
000
born
Kautokeino
Norw ay
Sw eden
Denmark
Dead infants in Kautokeino 1946-55
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
Children by married nomads Children by married residents Children born out of w edlock
IMR
per
100
0 bo
rn
Denmark 1850-54
Bourgeouis-Pichat's biometric test for Norway 1876-85 by sex and legitimacy
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
140,0
160,0
1 and 2 w eeks / 1 - 12 months / [log(days+1)]3
Cum
pr 1
000
Legitimate boys
Legitimate girls
Illeg boysIlleg girls
Biometric test - Norway
Iceland 1920
Feeding methods in selected areas 1911-20
0 %10 %20 %30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %80 %90 %
100 %
Reykjavik Hafnarfjördur Læknisherud(NorthEast)
Læknisherud(South)
BottleBreast/bottleBreast
Survival in days of breast-fed and artificially fed infants in a fishing village in Iceland 1915-1925
x
IMR 1840-52341 to 618 (52)281 to 340.9 (49)221 to 280.9 (55)161 to 220.9 (18)87 to 160.9 (10)
Causes of death Causes of death in infancy, Norway 1899-1955
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
700,0
800,0
900,0
1000,0
-19021899
-121909
-221919
-351931
-401936
-451941
-501946
-551951
Dea
ths
per 1
0 00
0 liv
e bi
rths
Unknown causes
Accidents
Other diseases
Diarrhoea and enterities
Bronchitis and pneumonia
Common infectious diseases
Tuberculosis
Congenital malfunction anddiseases of early infancy
IMR 1856-60NOS C No 1 Folkemengdens bevegelse
180 to 207 (1)160 to 180 (2)140 to 160 (5)120 to 140 (11)100 to 120 (15)59 to 100 (39)
Infant mortality in the deaneries 1856 to 1865
Infant mortality in Norway 1856-60
MM
M - Missing data
M
M
M
M
MM
M
M
MM
Hølen (M)
Kristiania
Sarpsborg
Son
Levanger
Steinkjer
Trondheim
Aren
dal
Kristiansand
TvedestrandLillesandKragerø Sandefjord
Moss
Mandal
Gjøvik
Kongsvinger
Fredrikstad
Fredrikshald
Farsund
Flekkefjord
Egersund
Hamar
Drøbak
Lillehammer
Kopervik
Haugesund
Skudeneshavn
Stavanger
Sandnes
Bergen
Florø
Kris
tian
sund
Molde
Mosj
øen
Bodø
Tromsø
Vadsø
Vardø
Nams
os
Hammerfest
Ålesund
IMR1876-80by 1000 births
180 to 224 (13)160 to 180 (3)140 to 160 (25)120 to 140 (38)100 to 120 (111)22 to 100 (329)
IMR in Norway 1876-80
IMR around 1920
Ålesund
Molde
Kris
tian
sund
Hamar
Kongsvinger
Drøbak
Gjøvik
Steinkjer
Levanger
Trondheim
Egersund
Stavanger
Farsund
Flekkefjord
Skudeneshavn
Lill
esan
dMandal
Sand
efjo
rd
Krag
erø
Tved
estr
and
Kristiansand
Moss
Fredrikstad
Aren
dal
Tromsø
Kristiania
Sarpsborg
Fredrikshald
Hølen
Son
Lillehammer
Vadsø
Vardø
Haugesund
Bergen
Florø
Namsos
Bodø
Hammerfest
IMR 1916-20Per 1000 births
150 to 206 (5)100 to 150 (22)80 to 100 (31)60 to 80 (168)8 to 60 (364)
Dead infants by month of year 1894-97
Percent of live births 1876-1898
Source: Johannessen (1902)
Dead 0-1 in N
orway by age in m
onths
IMR by province IMR in Norwegian Provinces 1856-1950
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
140,0
160,0
180,0
200,0
1856-60
1866-70
1876-80
1886-90
1896-1900
1906-10
1916-20
1926-30
1936-40
1946-50
Pr 1
000
born
NordlandTromsFinnmarkRural districtsByer Towns