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THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER
SUPPLIES
Jim Doane PE
Spring 2004
Order of Presentation
• What is Current – Unprecedented issues for water supply planning– There will be temperature changes as a result of
human activity– How these changes impact the hydrology of the
Pacific Northwest– How these changes impact the Bull Run Water
System
Order of Presentation
• What is emerging– Worst case Pentagon Study on Climate Change
(Leaked to British Press in Feb 2004)• Collapse of the Atlantic Ocean’s thermohaline
circulation– Caused by Global Warming
– Change in years instead of decades as presently predicted
– Vast climate changes---both globally and locally
– Colder, windier and drier and shorter growing season in the Northeast US. Less productive agriculture.
Order of Presentation
– A longer growing season in the Southwest US. More productive agriculture if water can be provided.
– Increased competition for water leading to international conflict.
– http://www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climatechange.pdf
Planning for Water Supply
• Based on historical values– Demand….present demand plus growth
(generally population based)– Supply
• Historical Record
• The longer the record, the higher the confidence
• But the Past is no longer a good precursor of the future
TEMPERATURE CHANGES
• From 2001 Work by the University of Washington
• Dr. Philip Mote of the JISAO Climates Impacts Group
Assessments of Climate Change
• Thousands of peer-reviewed papers
• Peer-reviewed assessment: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
• Major reports in 1990, 1996, 2001
• National Academy of Sciences panel, 2001 underscored IPCC conclusions
• carbon dioxide concentration has increased by ~32%
• the carbon budget: nature has absorbed roughly half our emissions
• there is no question that the increase is unnatural
• from a very long term perspective, these changes are enormous
Humans will keep increasing CO2
Evidence that Earth is Warming
• Thermometers show warming of 0.4-0.8°C (0.7-1.4°F) since 1900
• Arctic permafrost is melting• Worldwide, most glaciers melting• Arctic ice thinning• Spring coming earlier (snow cover; blooming, leafing-
out dates)• Borehole temperatures indicate warming• But: not every station shows warming; upper-air
temperatures not increasing (satellites, balloons)
Global average temperature
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0.8
0.4
0
-0.4
-0.8
degr
ees
Cel
sius
Some Evidence that Humans are Responsible
• Rate of warming unusual
• Hard to explain as natural (volcanoes, solar, ocean)
• Pattern of warming (and stratospheric cooling) consistent with human influence
The earth is warming -- abruptly
Natural Climate Influence Human Climate Influence
All Climate Influences
Projections into the Future
• Projections of future greenhouse gases (depends on socioeconomic projections)
• Climate models: different “sensitivity”
• Wide range of estimates: 1.4-5.8°C (2.5-10.4°F) by 2100, faster than any time in at least 10,000 years.
• Estimates show Pacific Northwest will increase by 3-5°F by 2040.
Temperature trends in the PNW
• Almost every station shows warming (filled circles)
• Urbanization not a major source of warming
PNW average temperature
Northwest warming
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
1900
s
1920
s
1940
s
1960
s
1980
s
2000
s
2020
s
2040
s
Deg
rees
F
warmest scenarioaverage coolest scenarioobservedCGCM1
Temperature Change Conclusions
• The bulk of the evidence points to a human influence on climate, with a global warming of 2.5-10.4F likely in the next 100 years.
• Regional warming likely to be faster than average global warming (3-6°F by 2040s); main vulnerability: reduced snow leading to summer water shortages
Implications for Water Management
• 2001 Work by University of Washington
• Alan Hamlet, Andy Wood and Dennis Lettenmaier of the JISAO Climates Impacts Group
WinterPrecipitation
SummerPrecipitation
(mm)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Month
No
rmal
ized
Str
eam
flow
SnowDominated
Transient Snow
Rain Dominated
Hydrologic Characteristics of PNW Rivers
Temperature warms,precipitation unaltered:
•Streamflow timing is altered• Annual volume stays about the same
Precipitation increases,temperature unaltered:
•Streamflow timing stays about the same•Annual volume is altered
Sensitivity of Snowmelt and Transient Riversto Changes in Temperature and Precipitation
0
1 00000
2 00000
3 00000
4 00000
5 00000
6 00000
7 00000
8 00000
9 00000
19
73
19
73
19
73
19
73
19
73
19
73
19
74
19
74
19
74
19
74
19
74
19
74
Water Year
Flo
w (
cfs
)
0
1 00000
2 00000
3 00000
4 00000
5 00000
6 00000
7 00000
8 00000
9 00000
19
73
19
73
19
73
19
73
19
73
19
73
19
74
19
74
19
74
19
74
19
74
19
74
Water Year
Flo
w (
cfs
)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Oc
t
Nov
Dec Jan
Fe
b
Mar
Ap
r
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep
Flo
w (
cfs)
1992
avg
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Flo
w (
cfs)
1992
avg
Cedar RiverWestern Cascades
(caused predominantly by warm temperatures)
Columbia Riverat The Dalles
(caused both by warm temperatures and decreased precipitation)
Effect of 1992 Winter Climate on Two PNW Rivers
ColSimReservoir
Model
VICHydrology Model
Changes in Mean Temperature and
Precipitation from GCMs
Climate Change Scenarios 2020s
Climate Change Scenarios 2040s
The main impact: less snow
April 1
Columbia
Basin
Snow
Extent
DALLES
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
oct
dec
feb
apr
jun
aug
Ave
rag
e F
low
(cf
s)
Base
comp 2020
Columbia River at The Dalles 2020s “Middle-of-the-Road” Scenario
DALLES
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
oct
dec
feb
apr
jun
aug
Ave
rag
e F
low
(cf
s)
Base
comp 2040
Columbia River at The Dalles 2040s “Middle-of-the-Road” Scenario
Water Resources in the Columbia River Basin
System objectives affected by winter flowsWinter hydropower production (PNW demand)
System objectives affected by summer flowsFlood controlSummer hydropower production (California demand)IrrigationInstream flow for fishRecreation
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Flo
od
Co
ntr
ol
Firm
Ene
rgy
Non
-Fir
m E
ner
gy
Sna
ke F
ish
Flo
ws
Ma
in S
tem
Fis
h F
low
s
Sn
ake
Irrig
atio
n
Lake
Ro
ose
velt
Re
cr.
Re
liab
ilit
y o
f O
bje
cti
ve
(%
)
Current Climate
2020s Scenario2040s Scenario
Simulated Reliability of Water Resources Objectivesfor “Middle-of-the-Road” Scenarios
1
2
3
4
1 Palisades2 Milner3 Oxbow4 Ice Harbor5 Kiona
5
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Flo
w (c
fs)
base
comp 2020
comp 2040
Snake River at Milner
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Flo
w (c
fs)
base
comp 2020
comp 2040
Snake River at Ice Harbor
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Flo
w (c
fs)
base
comp 2020
comp 2040
Yakima River at Kiona
General Conclusions for the PNW PNW hydrology is predominantly controlled by winter conditions in the mountains. Warmer temperatures produce streamflow timing changes in most PNW basins. Changes in precipitation produce changes in streamflow volumes. Basins encompassing the mid-winter snow line are most sensitive to warming. Basins at high elevations with cold winter temperatures are less sensitive.
The primary impact of warming in the PNW is loss of mountain snowpack. For the scenarios investigated, both warm/wet and warm/dry scenarios result in decreased snow water equivalent in the Columbia basin.
Warmer temperatures generally results in higher winter flows, lower summer flows, and earlier peak flows
Effects to the Columbia water resources system are largely associated with reduced reliability of system objectives affected by summer streamflows (water supply, irrigation, summer hydropower, instream flow).
There are significant uncertainties regarding changes in precipitation and the resulting intensity of reductions in summer streamflows and increases in the frequency of droughts.
However, a consistent and robust result is that some reduction in summer streamflow and increase in drought frequency is present in all scenarios by the 2040s for the Columbia basin.
The greatest impacts to the Columbia system are for the warm/dry scenarios, which produce the strongest reductions in summer streamflows and the greatest increases in drought frequency.
The reductions in summer streamflows in these scenarios are likely to exacerbate existing conflicts over water, the impacts of regional growth, and weaknesses in infrastructure, water management practice, and management institutions.
General Conclusions for the PNW (cont.)
The Impacts of Climate Change on Portland’s Water Supply
Work by Joe Dvorak, Dennis Kessler, Azad MohammadiPortland Bureau of Water Works
Richard Palmer, Margaret HahnUW Dept of Civil EngineeringClimate Impacts Group, JISAO
Spring 2002
Objectives Of Study
Examine the impacts of climate change on the Bull Run Watershed:
• Bull Run Watershed hydrology
• temporal and spatial analysis
• Forecasted M&I demand
• System performance
Portland’s Water Supply System
• Serves ~ 840,000 people• Largest system in state; serving since 1895• 42 BG annual demand• 115 MGD average daily demand• Bull Run Watershed
– Dam No.1 (10 BG)
– Dam No.2 (7 BG)
Bull Run Watershed
• 107 square miles
• 2350 feet elev.
• Rainfall driven
• 80 in./yr. rainfall
• 170 BG/year yield
• Peak Snowpack:– 16 inches Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)
• Snowmelt typically occurs before June
Methodology
Three sets of models used in the study:
Four Global Circulation Models
Hydrological Model
WaterSupply Model
Predicts changes to temperature and precipitation based on altered CO2 concentration.
Uses GCMs to predict climate impacted runoff in watershed.
Forecasts system performance based predicted watershed hydrology.
Results: Impacts to Climate
• Average warming trends of ~1.5 OC for the 2020
decade and ~2 OC by 2040.
• Increased winter precipitation, with less snowfall,
but more rain
• A decrease in late spring and summer precipitation
Results: Impacts to TemperatureTemperature Change
for Climate Change Scenarios
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Deg
rees
C2020 Climate Change
2040 Climate Change
Results: Impacts to Snowfall
Results: Impacts to PrecipitationPrecipitation Fraction for
Climate Change Scenarios
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Fra
ctio
n P
reci
pita
tion
2020 Climate Change
2040 Climate Change
Results: Impacts to Hydrology
• Average winter streamflows increase by 15%
• Late spring streamflows decrease by 30% due to spring
snowmelt being non-existent
• 50 percent of the time, April to September flows may decrease
by as much as 12.9 BG
• Less impact to storage (0.1 - 3.6 BG) depending on drawdown
timing (avg. 1.3 BG)
Results: Impacts to Streamflow
Results: Impacts to Streamflow(April to September)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Exceedance Probability
Tota
l Str
eam
flow
(Billion
Gal
lons)
2040 Climate (average)
Current Climate
Results: Impacts to Demand
• Water demands shown to be less sensitive to
climate change than hydrology
• 8% increase in 2040 drawdown demand
• 4% increase in 2040 average annual demand
Results: Impacts to Demand2040 Forecasted M & I Demand (includes conservation)
30-day Moving Average
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
3001/
1/82
1/31
/82
3/2/
82
4/1/
82
5/1/
82
5/31
/82
6/30
/82
7/30
/82
8/29
/82
9/2
8/82
10/2
8/82
11/
27/8
2
12/2
7/82
Date
Dem
and
(mgd
)
Average Climate Change
No Global Warming
Results: Impacts to Drawdown
Impacts to drawdown length will vary
from year to year:
Historical extreme years like 1987 change little, however, the
frequency of these years increases.
Drawdown length for average years may increase by as much as
60 days, as drawdown starts earlier due to early spring recession.
Results: Impacts to System
• On average, the combined effect of climate
change on hydrology and demand may increase
storage requirements by 2.8 BG.
• Global warming will push forward the need to
provide more sources of supply in the future
Impacts to Bull Run Watershed
Impacts to Overall System
Summary
• Warming trends of 1.5 OC (up to 3.5 OC) for 2020 and 2.0 OC (up to 4.5 OC) by 2040.
• Average winter precipitation will increase, late spring runoff will decrease, spring
snowmelt may be non-existent.
• Streamflows in the summer will decrease.
• The impacts on hydrology may increase storage requirements by 1.3 BG (up to 3.6
BG)
• Demands will increase by 1.5 BG (up to 2.4 BG)
• The effect of climate change on hydrology and demand, will increase storage
requirements by 2.8 BG (up to 5.4 BG)
Conclusions• Assessing climate change impacts will be vital in future water
supply planning.
• Climate change is only one factor in long-term planning. Other
factors will include:
– Future demands (due to growth and/or service area changes)
– ESA (fish flow releases)
– Conservation Programs, investments & success
The Future
• JWC has a similar study underway now– JWC supplies Hillsboro, Beaverton, Forest
Grove and TVWD
• Results are expected this summer
• Expect results to be similar to Bull Run
• Vector Issues
Impact of the Emerging Data
• We have only the summary of the leaked Pentagon Study – We don’t yet have the necessary specifics
• To evaluate its validity or likelihood
• To anticipate what impact the loss of the Atlantic termohaline circulation will have on the Pacific Northwest
• To see how much this throws off the information I have presented today.
The Engineering Community
• Meeting with other engineering working on climate change issues.– Providing information– Trying to educate other engineers– Trying to educate the public at large– Trying to educate elected officials
Acknowledgements
• The slides showing the impacts of temperature change are by Dr. Philip Mote of the JISAO Climates Impacts Group.
• The slides showing the impacts on water resources are by Alan Hamlet, Andy Wood and Dennis Lettenmaier of the JISAO Climates Impacts Group.
Acknowledgement Cont.
• The slides on the Portland Study are by Richard Palmer, Margaret Hahnof the JISAO Climates Impacts Group.
• Assisting my understanding of the issues of Portland’s water supply were Joe Dvorak, Dennis Kessler, Dr. Azad Mohammadi of the Portland Water Bureau