The Gulf of Alaska Project: An Integrated Ecosystem

Research Project

Georgina Gibson, Sarah Hinckley, Russ Hopcroft, Jamal Moss, and Olav Ormseth

NOAA Fisheries

NOAA Fisheries

A. Aguilar-Islas (UAF)S. Atkinson (UAF)K. Aydin (NOAA)S. Budge (Dalhousie U.)B. Coffin (UAF)K. Coyle (UAF)N. Deans (NPRB)A. DeRobertis (NOAA)D. Dickson (NPRB)M. Doyle (UW)J. Duffy-Anderson (NOAA)W. Fournier (NOAA)K. Frederickson (WWU)G. Gibson (UAF)N. Golden (USGS)M. Guttormsen (NOAA)L. Guy (UW)

K. Hedstrom (UAF)J. Heifetz (NOAA)R. Heintz (NOAA)A. Hermann (UW)S. Hinckley (NOAA)R. Hopcroft (UAF)J. Horne (UW)N. Kachel (UW)C. Ladd (NOAA)A. Matarese (NOAA)D. McGowan (UW)C. Mordy (UW) J. Moss (NOAA)F. Mueter (UAF)J. Napp (NOAA)O. Ormseth (NOAA)C. Parada (IIP)

K. Rand (NOAA)J. Reid (USGS)R. Rember (IARC)K. Shotwell (NOAA)L. Slater (USFWS)P. Stabeno (NOAA/PMEL)W. Stockhausen (NOAA)D. Stockwell (UAF)S. Strom (WWU)P. Sullivan (UW)J. Vollenweider (NOAA)J. Waite (UAF)S. Wang (S. Ecological)F. Wiese (NPRB)C. Wilson (NOAA)M. Zimmerman (NOAA)

Scope & Breadth

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“How do environmental and anthropogenic processes, including climate change, affect trophic levels and dynamic linkages among

trophic levels, with emphasis on fish and fisheries, marine mammals, and seabirds within the Gulf of Alaska”

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• Interdisciplinary Study• $17.5 million-study• 5 years (2010 – 2014)• >40 scientists from 11 institutions

• Gauntlet for Groundfishes• Sablefish• Walleye pollock• Pacific ocean perch• Pacific cod• Arrowtooth flounder

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currents

temperature, nutrients

prey, predation

competition

habitat

What factors most affect how the 5 target species of groundfish get from here…

…to here?

The Gauntlet

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Project Conceptual Model

climate & oceanography

transport

primary and secondary productivity

forage fishes

eggs & larvae

YOY & juveniles

seabirds & marine mammals

adults

5 target groundfish species

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Research Components

Lower Trophic Level

Middle Trophic Level Upper Trophic Level

Modeling

Retrospective Analysis Group

• Historical datasets– Identified 100 historical datasets

• Baseline information on ecosystem processes• Identify mechanisms influencing recruitment• Identify long-term regional trends• All trophic level components

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SST Variability (EOF analysis)

First mode (EOF 1, 70.8%) Second mode (EOF 2, 9.2%)

165W 160W 155W 150W 145W 140W 135W 130W

50N

52N

54N

56N

58N

60N

62N

0.01 0.005 0 0.0145 0.029

70.8%

1000 m isobath

y.po

s

-50

050

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

165W 160W 155W 150W 145W 140W 135W 130W

50N

52N

54N

56N

58N

60N

62N

-0.036 -0.018 0 0.0205 0.041

9.2%

0

1000 m isobath

y.po

s

-40

020

40

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

F. Mueter (UAF)

Spatial Patterns in Chl. a Anomalies K-means cluster analysis suggests 3 relatively distinct regions!

165W 160W 155W 150W 145W 140W 135W 130W

50N

54N

58N

62N

Jason Waite will give an in-depth analysis of Chl. a data Thursday @11:15

F. Mueter (UAF)

-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

Axis 1

Axi

s 2

Ordination of Groundfish Species Comp. NMFS Bottom Trawl Survey

Strong differences in species comp.

east/west of 147o W

West of 147o WEast of 147o W

F. Mueter (UAF)

-170 -165 -160 -155 -150 -145 -140 -135

5254

5658

6062

-170 -165 -160 -155 -150 -145 -140 -135

5254

5658

6062

East-West Gradients in Groundfish CPUE (-) and Species Diversity (-)

Trend component

Vt

0 5 10 15 20 25

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

Time of BP(s) 1415

Trend component

Alongshore distance (km)

Vt

0 5 10 15 20 25

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

Time of BP(s) 1531diversityCPUE

Alongshore distance (*100 km)

N

orm

aliz

ed s

cale

Catch-per-unit-effort (all species)

Species diversity(Shannon-Wiener)

Breakpointat ~148 oW

F. Mueter (UAF)

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Gulf of Alaska

Summer & Fall Field Surveys

Oceanography:

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CTD

Nutrients

Chlorophyll - a

Microzooplankton

http://bioloc.coas.oregonstate.edu/SherrLab/GLOBECposterciliates.jpg

Phytoplankton

http://www.dtplankton.com/images/PRB-1.jpg

Zooplankton & Ichthyoplankton

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Zooplankton

Bongo60cm

505 µm Oblique

Larval Fish

Bongos20cm

153 µm oblique

Neuston30x50cm

Fish & Acoustics

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Fish Abundance

Surface / midwater Rope Trawl (Top 25m)

Age-0 FishMidwater Acoustics

Caloric Content / LipidDiet

P.Cod Pollock

Seabirds & Marine Mammals:

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At-sea Observations

Rhinoceros auklet

Tufted Puffin GPS Tag

DietStorm Petrel

Colony Observations

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0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Frequency of occurrence of prey items in tufted puffin & rhi-noceros auklet diet samples (piscivores)

East Amatuli (tufted puf -fin)

St. Lazaria (rhinoceros auklet)

2011 Shore-based Seabird Diet

L. Slater (USFWS)

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2010 Pilot Survey

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Summer

Wyatt Fournier poster on larval & juv. Rockfish distribution and predation by adult salmon

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Fall

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Kalei Shotwell has a poster on benthic habitat research

• Hypothesis– Settlement to preferred habitat is one of the critical regulators of

early life survival throughout the offshore to nearshore gauntlet• Goal

– Characterize offshore to nearshore benthic habitat by region• Objectives

– Collect, clean, digitize, and grid available bathymetry, sediments, and habitat features

– Create base models of species specific preferred habitat and generate suitability maps for use in nearshore IBMs

Habitat Mapping

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Sediments & Features

Features Rock Islet Floating kelp Rocky outcrop

Sediments Rocky Gravel Sand Mud

Bathymetry

Meters 0 10 25 50 100

Norcross et al. 1997Preferred Habitat Age-0 Flathead sole: 80-120 m, mud, central areas

40m

Mean Low Low Water

Cross-sections

79,300 m2 87,600 m2

306,600 m2

Seafloor Measures Example Habitat Map

Kiliuda Bay Example

Courtesy of Mark Zimmermann, AFSC

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MTL Overview

• nearshore survey w/ acoustics• offshore acoustics (UTL platform)• diet analysis: stomachs, FA, SI• condition and energy content

Kiliuda Bay

Izhut Bay

Barren Islands

Port Dick

Aialik Bay

Kenai Peninsula

Kodiak Island

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MTL Nearshore Survey Sites

Whale Bay

St. Lazaria

Torch Bay/ Graves Harbor

Islas Bay

Salisbury Sound

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MTL PlatformsPics and detail on methods

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Nearshore Surveying, MTL-style

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MTL Purse Seine Catches

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LTL Overview

• Spring: LTL-only oceanography cruises• Summer/fall: UTL platform oceanography• Moorings• Drifters• Iron studies

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LTL Sampling Design

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LTL Sampling Design - Intensive

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LTL: Spring 2011 Surface Chlorophyll

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Multi Species Model

Indices of recruitment

Hydrography and ,zooplankton biomass

ROMS Physical Ocean Model GOA Grid 10km

Boundary and Initial Conditions

ROMS Physical Ocean Model GOA Grid 3km

Lower Trophic Level Modelnested GOA-NPZ

Hydrography

Effect of environmentally-caused variability in recruitment on ecosystems components and fishing

Vertically Linked ModelsAtmospheric forcing products

Indices of LTL variability

Initial Larval Distributions

Retrospective Recruitment correlations

Offline IBM Models

PollockSablefish

POP Pacific Cod

Arrowtooth

H3

H2

H1

UTL ComponentHypotheses

H3

H2

H1

ModelingComponentHypotheses

Regime analysis

Plankton biomass, Nutrients,Production

Larval horizontal

and vertical distribution

nursery areas, diet, abundance, production and consumption

Habitat maps

Forage fish diet, abundance, production and consumption

Decision of which runs

Indices of physical variability

MTLComponent

LTL Component

UTL Component

Distribution of juveniles

Plankton process rates

Oceanographic Data

EOF Analysis,Regional statistical indices

Regional statistical indices

Longitudinal + trajectory

analysis,Genetics Model

Distribution of competitors and juveniles

ROMS

NPZ IBM’s

Model

Multi Species Model

Indices of recruitment

Hydrography and ,zooplankton biomass

ROMS Physical Ocean Model GOA Grid 10km

Boundary and Initial Conditions

ROMS Physical Ocean Model GOA Grid 3km

Lower Trophic Level Modelnested GOA-NPZ

Hydrography

Effect of environmentally-caused variability in recruitment on ecosystems components and fishing

Vertically Linked ModelsAtmospheric forcing products

Indices of LTL variability

Initial Larval Distributions

Retrospective Recruitment correlations

Offline IBM Models

PollockSablefish

POP Pacific Cod

ATF

H3

H2

H1

UTL ComponentHypotheses

H3

H2

H1

ModelingComponentHypotheses

Regime analysis

Plankton biomass, Nutrients,Production

Larval horizontal

and vertical distribution

nursery areas, diet, abundance, production and consumption

Habitat maps

Forage fish diet, abundance, production and consumption

Decision of which runs

Indices of physical variability

MTLComponent

LTL Component

UTL Component

Distribution of juveniles

Plankton process rates

Oceanographic Data

EOF Analysis,Regional statistical indices

Regional statistical indices

Longitudinal + trajectory

analysis,Genetics Model

Distribution of competitors and juveniles

ROMS

NPZ IBM’s

Model Validation

Modeling Overview

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Multi Species Model

Indices of recruitment

Hydrography and ,zooplankton biomass

ROMS Physical Ocean Model GOA Grid 10km

Boundary and Initial Conditions

ROMS Physical Ocean Model GOA Grid 3km

Lower Trophic Level Modelnested GOA-NPZ

Hydrography

Effect of environmentally-caused variability in recruitment on ecosystems components and fishing

Vertically Linked ModelsAtmospheric forcing products

Indices of LTL variability

Initial Larval Distributions

Retrospective Recruitment correlations

Offline IBM Models

PollockSablefish

POP Pacific Cod

Arrowtooth

H3

H2

H1

UTL ComponentHypotheses

H3

H2

H1

ModelingComponentHypotheses

Regime analysis

Plankton biomass, Nutrients,Production

Larval horizontal

and vertical distribution

nursery areas, diet, abundance, production and consumption

Habitat maps

Forage fish diet, abundance, production and consumption

Decision of which runs

Indices of physical variability

MTLComponent

LTL Component

UTL Component

Distribution of juveniles

Plankton process rates

Oceanographic Data

EOF Analysis,Regional statistical indices

Regional statistical indices

Longitudinal + trajectory

analysis,Genetics Model

Distribution of competitors and juveniles

ROMS

NPZ IBM’s

Model

Multi Species Model

Indices of recruitment

Hydrography and ,zooplankton biomass

ROMS Physical Ocean Model GOA Grid 10km

Boundary and Initial Conditions

ROMS Physical Ocean Model GOA Grid 3km

Lower Trophic Level Modelnested GOA-NPZ

Hydrography

Effect of environmentally-caused variability in recruitment on ecosystems components and fishing

Vertically Linked ModelsAtmospheric forcing products

Indices of LTL variability

Initial Larval Distributions

Retrospective Recruitment correlations

Offline IBM Models

PollockSablefish

POP Pacific Cod

ATF

H3

H2

H1

UTL ComponentHypotheses

H3

H2

H1

ModelingComponentHypotheses

Regime analysis

Plankton biomass, Nutrients,Production

Larval horizontal

and vertical distribution

nursery areas, diet, abundance, production and consumption

Habitat maps

Forage fish diet, abundance, production and consumption

Decision of which runs

Indices of physical variability

MTLComponent

LTL Component

UTL Component

Distribution of juveniles

Plankton process rates

Oceanographic Data

EOF Analysis,Regional statistical indices

Regional statistical indices

Longitudinal + trajectory

analysis,Genetics Model

Distribution of competitors and juveniles

ROMS

NPZ IBM’s

Model Validation

Modeling Overview

Individual Based Fish Models

Physical Forcing & Lower Trophic

Level Models

Field Observations

Model Validation

Multi-Species Models

Hypothesis Testing

Environmental Effect on

Recruitment

Regime Analysis

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Modeling Results: Pattern Analysis

• purpose is to identify regimes for hindcasting

• main pattern seen relates to “Gyre Spinup”, and El Niño/PDO (strong/weak).

• seen especially in along shelf velocities, EKE, SSH and SST

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ADULT SPAWN

Example: Pacific Cod Conceptual Model

Spawn:Feb-July (t0)

JUVENILES

YOLK SACLARVAE

FEEDING LARVAE

MOVE INSHORE

Hatch: t0 + 21-26 days at 4˚C

Flexion:10-17 mm

Size at hatch:3-4 mm SL

EPI-PELAGIC JUVENILES

Transformation:25-35mm

t0 + 4 weeks

1st feedingf(???)

EGGS

Egg Development: f(time,temp,

depth,substrate)

YSL: Swim to surface, T=hatch+ 1

day

Diel Migration (after flexion)

July+

Larval Depth: shallower when cold.

= Indicates ‘switch’ to next ‘Stage’= Modeled ‘Stage’

f(time,temp)Hatch:

Nursery area

TIME

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Summary

• Comprehensive look at all trophic levels of the GOA ecosystem, from the shoreline out

to beyond the shelf break

• Focused on the environmental gauntlet that five major groundfish species must

navigate during early life

• Comparative approach: eastern vs. western GOA, seasonal and annual variability

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