lHE <:;UARDIAN, Monday. June 6,200

e n ent

School of fish ... a safe guide for food security

Global study lTIaps clilTIate risl(s to Africa's food security The study reveals future -hotspots· of risk for hundreds of millions whose food problems ar~ on a col­lision course with cli­mate change. According to the sci­entists, disaster looms for parts of Africa and all of India if chronic food insecurity con­verges with crop-wilt­ing weather; Latin America also vulnera­ble. A NEW stud'f has matched

r\future climate change ''hotspol5" with regions already suffering chronic food problems to identify highly-vulnerable populations, dlie!ly in Africa and South Asia, but potentiaUy in China and Latin America as well, where in !ewer than 40 years, the prospect of .shorter, hotter or drier growing seasons could imperil hundreds of millions of alreadyimpoverished people.

The report, "Mapping Hotspots of Climate Change and Food Insecurity in the Global Tropics," was produced by the CGI,4.R Research

~· ·Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)_ The work was undertaken by a team of scientists responding to an urgent need to focus climate

change adaptation efforts on people and places where the potential for harsher growing conditions poses the gravest threat to food production and food security.

The researchers pinpointed areas of intense vulnerability by examining a variety of cli­mate models and indicators of food problems to create a series of detailed maps. One shows regions around the world at risk of crossing cer­tain "climate thresholds", such as temperatures too hot for maize or beans - that over the next40years could dimin­ish food production. Another shows regions that may be sensitive to such climate sbifts because in general they have large areas of land devoted to crop and livestock produc­tion.And finally, scientists pro­duced maps of regions with a long history of food insecuri­ty.

"When you put these maps together they reveal places around the world where the arrival of stressful growing conditions could be especially disastrous," said Polly Ericksen, a senior sdentist at the CGlAR's International livestock Research Institute (U.RI) in Nairobi, Kenya and the study's lead author.

"These are areas highly exposed to climate shiftS, where survival is strongly linked to the fate of regional crop and livestock yields, and where chronic food problems indicate that farmers are already struggling and they lack the capadty to adapt to new weather patterns." "This is a very troubling com­

bination." she added_

For example, in large parts of South Asia, including almost aU of India, and parts of sulr Saharan Africa, chiefly West Africa, there are 369 million food-insecure people living in agriculture-intensive areas that are highly exposed to a potential five per cent decrease in the length of the growing period. Such a change over the next 40 years could Significantly affect food yields and food access for peo­ple, many of them farmers themselves - already living on the edge. Higher tempera­tures also coued exact a heavy toll.

Today, there are 56 nlillion food-insecure and crop­dependent people in parts of West Africa, India and China who live in areas where, by tile mid-2050s, maximum daily temperatures during the growing season could exceed 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit). This is close to the maximum temperature that beans can tolerate, while maize and rice yields may suf' fer when temperatures exceed this level. Forexample, a study last year in Nature found that even with optimal amounts of rain, African maize yields could decline by one per cent for each day spent above 30'C.

Regional predictions for shifts in temperatures and precipitation going out to 2050 were developea by ana­lyzing the outputs of climate models rooted in the exten­sive data amassed by the Fourth Assessment Rel'ort (AR4) from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Researchers identified popu-

lations as chronically food­insecure if more than 40 per cent of children under the age of five were "stunted" - that is, they are faU weU below the World Health Organisation's height-for-age standards. "We are starting to see much

more clearly where the effect of climate change on agricul­ture could intensify hunger and poverty, but only.if we rail to pursue appropriate adapta­tion strategies." said Patti Kristjanson, a research theme leader at CCAFS. "Farmers already adapt to variable weather patterns by changing their planting schedules or moving animals to different grazing areas. What this study suggests is that the speed of climate shifts and the magni­tude of the changes required to adapt could be much greater. In some places, farm­ers might need to consider entirely new crops or new farming systems."

Crop breeders at CGIAR cen­ters around the world already are focused on developing so­called "climate ready" crop varieties able to produce high yields in more stressful condi­tions. For some regions, how· ever, that mil;:ht not be a viable option - 10 parts of East and Southern Africa, for exam· pIe, temperatures may become too hot to maintain maize as the staple crop, requiring a shift to other food crops, suCh as sorghum orcas­sava, to meet nutrition needs. In addition, farmers who now focus mainly on crop cultiva­tion nlight need to integrate Iivestoc~ and agroforestry as a way to maintaIn and increase food production.

Climate action faces legal gap, no deal this year tilmmiDJiUmiill1 THE world will again fall short 1 of a full climate deal this year, after two past attempts, say developed countries, which wanta narrower focus on forests and funds at resumed UN taJks in Germany nextweek A fresh postponement will all but end hopes of a binding UN deal to succeed the Kyoto Protocol before its present round expires at tile end of 2012, leaving a legal gap and possible makeshift arrange­ments for years, says Reuters report.

The United States has demanded "legal sym­metry"in a new ~eal, under which climate targets for China would have equal force to any commit­ments by the rich. China says its pdority must be to grow.its economy to end , poverty. A summit in Copenhagen

two years ago was blown off Solomon Islands. course by world recession Top climate officials in the and political wrangling. Europea n Union and the Hopes are now dimmed for a United States have already conference in Durban, South said a full deal this year was Africa later this year. beyond reach. A possible com-

Developing countries want promise could see countries to extend Kyoto, which binds in Durban harden existing only rich countries to cut voluntary emissions pledges greenhouse gas emissions after 2012, for example by until 2012. BIJt Japan, Russia attaching a formal time and Canada reject that, prefer- schedule to these in a stop­ring a new, wider deal in a gap deal fallingshortofa new rich-poor deadlock, which protocol, say negotiators. echoes world trade talks. Without a full deal, there was "In Durban it's almost impos- still much to agree this year,

sible to see a legally binding for example on how to raise agreement, if we take into $100 billion in climate aid consideration the positions of annually by 2020, share low· many countries includin,pthe carbon tecllnologies, increase United States and China, said inspection of national action Akira Yamada, who will head and curb deforestation , said Japan's delegation at the next the EU's chief negotiator, round of talks at a two-week Antlr Runge-Metzger. meeting in Bonn, Germany, Countries agreed those steps from June 6-17. in prinCiple at a ministerial China and the United States conference in Mexico at the

are the world's top two car- end of last year. "We would bon emitters, but Kyoto does like a practical, pragmatic dis­not bind China's soaring cussion in Bonn." said Japan's emissions and the United . Yamada. States was the only industri- ''There is a lot that can be alised country not to ratify done in the meantime (with­the pact. out a deal)," said Elliot

The United States has Diringer, vice president of demanded "legal symmetrY" International Strategies at the in a new deal, under which eli- Pew Centre on Global Climate mate targets for China would Change. Efforts are meant to have equal force to any com- help shift from fossil fuels nlitrnents by the rich. China toward low-carbon tech nola­says its priority must be to giestohelpavertwhattheUN grow its economy to end panel of climate scientists poverty. says will be ever more Many developing nations say droughts, floods and rising

an extension of Kyoto is vital. sea levels. "The Kyoto Protocol is an But developing countries essential element of any com- also want discussion on the prehensive strategy to most contentious issue, an address climate change and extended Kyoto Protocol, left also a key to maintaining unclear in Mexico. There was trust between developed and also a stalemate at the most developing countries." said recent talks In Bangkok in Colin Beck, representing the April

World Environment Day symposium

IN commemoration of this Nature at your service." yea~s World Environment At a press briefing to

Day, a . non-govemmental annOunce the event, organisation, Verte Energy Executive Director of Verte, Development Initiative will tl1is Kunle Johnson, said the Ftidaystagea ta1kshopandgaJa choice of the topic this year is event at the.Terra Kulture, Plot apt, considering the ever­B76 TiaIlliyu Savage · street, increasing climate change VictorialsJand,Lagos. .. challenge confronting tlie . , Supported by 4gos State world. MinistIyoftbe Environment, He said the programme was Nigeria ... Erivironmental instituted to create more Society (Lagos Island BranCh), awareness on environmental Nigerian· Conservation issues, and to also stimulate Foundation and others, it will interest of the younger gener­provide a platform forprofes- .ations on environmental sionals in the environment, matters. At the event, cOrpOrate bOdies, dvil society, Johnson said that different government functionaries, ·awards would be given to academia and other stake- those found to have per­holders to network and rub formed well in the quiz com­minds oil the subject of this petition of different cate­year's .. ,discourse: "Forest ... gories.