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The Great Recession. 2007-2009 The recovery has started, really. March 2012 Suzan Reagan, Labor Economist. Labor Market Information. Job Descriptions Education Wages Employment levels Future Growth. Agenda. NM Economic Situation Industry Recession History/impact of - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Great Recession
March 2012Suzan Reagan, Labor Economist
2007-2009
The recovery has started, really.
Labor Market Information•Job Descriptions•Education•Wages•Employment levels•Future Growth
• NM Economic Situation– Industry
• Recession History/impact of • Current Situation• What’s Next
– Occupations• Sources of Data
– Career Solutions – LASER
Agenda
The Great Recession
•Started December 2007
• Housing Peaked on 2006
• High Oil and Gas prices early 2007
• Financial Markets in August 2007
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
63846312
5892
5532
6900
8292
1156811352
1056010428 10800
9804
9084 9624
11268
1318813908 14112
12516
9120
5808
45604562
4029
282
New Mexico Private Housing Building Permits, 1988 - Present
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
NM Oil Rig CountAverage price per barrelin 2006 was $62.65
Average price per Barrelin 2002 was $27.46
Oil prices averaged$91.77 in 2008 Current price per
Barrel is about$106.25
2011 summer hovered around $100.00In September fell to $79.85Finishing in December around $100.00
1970-01 1973-01 1976-01 1979-01 1982-01 1985-01 1988-01 1991-01 1994-01 1997-01 2000-01 2003-01 2006-01 2009-010
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80ISM Manufacturing
.Values above 50represent expansion.
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
US Retail Sales, 1992 to present
USIn thousands
NM
Total Non-Farm Employment Seasonally Adjusted
1990
-01
1990
-07
1991
-01
1991
-07
1992
-01
1992
-07
1993
-01
1993
-07
1994
-01
1994
-07
1995
-01
1995
-07
1996
-01
1996
-07
1997
-01
1997
-07
1998
-01
1998
-07
1999
-01
1999
-07
2000
-01
2000
-07
2001
-01
2001
-07
2002
-01
2002
-07
2003
-01
2003
-07
2004
-01
2004
-07
2005
-01
2005
-07
2006
-01
2006
-07
2007
-01
2007
-07
2008
-01
2008
-07
2009
-01
2009
-07
2010
-01
2010
-07
2011
-01
2011
-0720
12-1
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
NM US
NM vs. US Employment from 1990 to Present
How BAD?
• Max September 2008: 852,900• Min January 2011: 795,700• Difference: -57,200
January 2008: 841,900January 2012: 802,100Difference: -39,800
Labor Market Supply and Demand!
NM Total Non-Farm Employment Seasonally Adjusted:
NM Industries Change
HOW HAS NEW MEXICO HANDLED THE RECESSION?
•Mining lost over 500
•Construction shed about 16,000
•Manufacturing lost another 8,000
•Retail took a hit with 6,000
•Admin & Waste Svs 5,000
•Bright spot Health Care +12,000
AgricultureMiningUtilities
ConstructionManufacturing
Wholesale TradeRetail Trade
Transportation & WarehousingInformation
Finance and InsuranceReal Estate
Professional & Technical ServicesManagement Companies & Enterprises
Administrative & Waste ServicesEducational Services
Health Care and Social AssistanceArts, Entertainment, & RecreationAccommodation & Food ServicesOther Services, Ex. Public Admin
Public Administration
-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000
Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions
Central Area Industry Change
AgricultureMining*Utilities
ConstructionManufacturing
Wholesale TradeRetail Trade
Transportation & WarehousingInformation
Finance and InsuranceReal Estate
Professional & Technical ServicesManagement Companies & Enterprises
Administrative & Waste ServicesEducational Services
Health Care and Social AssistanceArts, Entertainment, & RecreationAccommodation & Food ServicesOther Services, Ex. Public Admin
Public Administration
-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011 (QCEW)
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions
Eastern Area Industry Change
Agriculture*Mining*
Utilities*Construction*
Manufacturing*Wholesale Trade
Retail TradeTransportation & Warehousing
InformationFinance and Insurance
Real Estate*Professional & Technical Services
Management Companies & Enterprises*Administrative & Waste Services*
Educational Services*Health Care and Social AssistanceArts, Entertainment, & Recreation
Accommodation & Food ServicesOther Services, Ex. Public Admin*
Public Administration
-1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500
Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011 (QCEW)
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions
AgricultureMining
Utilities*Construction
Manufacturing*Wholesale Trade*
Retail TradeTransportation & Warehousing*
Information*Finance and Insurance
Real Estate*Professional & Technical Services
Management Companies & Enterprises*Administrative & Waste Services*
Educational ServicesHealth Care and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation*Accommodation & Food ServicesOther Services, Ex. Public Admin
Public Administration
-6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011 (QCEW)
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions
Northern Area Industry Change
Southwestern Area Industry Change
AgricultureMining*Utilities
Construction*Manufacturing*
Wholesale Trade*Retail Trade
Transportation & WarehousingInformation*
Finance and InsuranceReal Estate
Professional & Technical ServicesManagement Companies & Enterprises*
Administrative & Waste ServicesEducational Services*
Health Care and Social AssistanceArts, Entertainment, & Recreation*
Accommodation & Food ServicesOther Services, Ex. Public Admin*
Public Administration
-2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Difference from 1st Quarter 2007 to 1st Quarter 2011 (QCEW)
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions
NM Employment Industry Mix
UtilitiesMgt of Companies Real Estate Agriculture Arts & EntertainmentInformationTransportation Mining
Other Services Finance
Wholesale
Manufacturing
Admin, Support & Waste Mgt
Construction
Professional, Scientific & Tech Svc
Educational SvcsAccommodation &
Food Svcs
Retail Trade
Government (EX. Health & ED.)
Health Care & Social Assistance
Source: Projections unit 2009-2019, NM Dept. of Workforce Solutions
The Great Recession Ended July 2009?
17
Current Employment SituationThe unemployment rate for:
January 2012 January 2011
The US is at 8.3% 9.1%
New Mexico 7.0% 8.7%
Albuquerque 7.1% 9.0 %
Las Cruces 6.7% 8.6 %
Santa Fe 5.1% 7.3 %
Farmington 6.7% 9.4 %
The bad news is…
Seasonally Adjusted
What about…
19
Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization U-6
NM 14.8%Fourth Quarter of 2010 through Third Quarter of 2011 Averages.
• Unemployed
• Part time for economic reasons
• Multiple Jobs holders
•Marginally attached workers
•Bureau of Labor Statistics
•4 QTR Moving Average
•http://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm
Part time but would work full
time
Discouraged unemployed workers
Multiple job holders
County Unemployment Rates
6.57.8
6.2
6.0
7.4
4.44.2
6.6 4.0
7.1
8.9
3.8
4.2
5.3
3.1
16.9
7.913.6
5.8
7.1
7.2
4.4
6.5
6.77.85.2
6.1
4.8
7.9
7.9
4.3
7.8
5.4
NM UI Continued Claims Duration
Based on UI Summary Data 2nd Qtr 2011:
Average Duration 21.5 weeks in 2010
071-074
072-081
073-082
074-083
081-084
082-091
083-092
084-093
091-094
092-101
093-102
094-103
101-104
102-111
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90Chart 1: Number of Statewide Unemployed by Duration (in Weeks of Unemployment)
52+ 27-51 15-26 5-14 <5
Four-Quarter Period
Tota
l Une
mpl
oyed
(Tho
usan
ds)
US Unemployment Rates for Men and Women
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Men Women
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
New Mexico Unemployment Rate by Age2011 annual averages
16 to 19 yrs 20 to 24 yrs 25 to 34 yrs 35 to 44 yrs 45 to 54 yrs 55 to 64 yrs 65 years and over
0
5
10
15
20
2522.9
12.5
8.76.5
5.53.9 4.4
Source: Census Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment
7.4%
New Mexico 2010 Unemployment Rate
White, one race
Black or African American, one race
American Indian and Alaska Native, one race
Asian, one race
Some other race
Two or more races
Hispanic or Latino origin (of any race)
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino
Population 20 to 64 years
8.6%
9.2%
14.4%
8.8%
11.6%
11.1%
11.3%
7.2%
9.0%
Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin
Source: 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates
2010 Census Population by County
National Trends – projected population by age
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
NM Population Projections by Age
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
April 2000
July 2005 July 2010 July 2015 July 2020 July 2025
65 years & over45 to 64 yrs25 to 44 yrs18 to 24 yrs14 to 17 yrs5 to 13 yrsUnder 5 yrs
Source: U.S.Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim State Population Projections, 2005
NM Employment ProjectionsAnnual Average Percent Change 0.97
Projected 958,000NM Job Recovery
Minimum Employment January 2011 at 795,700
Dec-07
Mar-08Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
740,000
760,000
780,000
800,000
820,000
840,000
860,000
880,000
Employment RecoveryEmployment Pre-RecessionTrendline according to
2009-2019 IndustryProjections.
Intersect in 2016.
Max Employment Sept. 2008 at 852,900
Casselman, Ben. “A State-by-State Look at Long Road to Jobs Recovery.” Wall Street Journal Blog, November 14, 2011
Tigger Slide
Occupations
32
O*NET / SOC 2010 Code StructureSample code : 15-1152.00 Title: Computer Network Support Specialists
11- Management Occupations13- Business & Financial Operations Occupations15- Computer and Mathematical Occupations17-Architecture and engineering Occupations19- Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations21- Community and Social services Occupations23- Legal Occupations25- Education, Training, and Library Occupations27- Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports & Related29- Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occs.31- Healthcare Support Occupations
33- Protective Service Occupations35- Food Preparation & Serving Related Occs.37- Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance39- Personal Care and Service Occupations41- Sales and Related Occupations43- Office &Administrative Support Wkrs45- Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occs.47- Construction and Extraction Occs.49- Installation, Maintenance, and Repair51- Production Occupations53- Transportation and Material Moving55- Military Specific Occupations
Organized into Groups:
NM Occupational Category Employment 2009
1,898 6,514 7,612
11,916 13,372 14,132 14,205
22,093 22,500
28,081 28,476 30,674
34,768 36,226 38,534
44,614 51,359 54,581
69,105 76,328
87,210 132,720
Transportation & Material MovingLegal Occupations
Farming, Fishing & ForestryArts, Design & EntertainmentCommunity & Social Services Life, Physical & Social Science
Computer & Math OccupationsArchitecture & Engineering OccsProtective Services Occupations
Healthcare Support OccupationsBusiness & Financial Occupations
Production OccupationsBuilding & Grounds Cleaning Occs
Installation, Maintenance & RepairPersonal Care & Service Occs
Healthcare Practitioners & TechnicalManagement Occupations
Education, Training & Library OccsConstruction & Extraction Occs
Food Preparation & Serving RelatedSales and Related Occupations
Office & Administrative Support Occs
Source: NM Department of Workforce Solutions Economic Research & Analysis Bureau
NM Occupational Group Annual Average Percent Change
2009-2019
0.3-0.7
0.71.3
0.81.4
0.61.2
2.61.4
-0.30.5
0.92.1
1.80.5
0.61.3
0.91.1
0.80.7
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Legal OccupationsFarming,Fishing & Forestery
Arts, Design & EntertainmentCommunity & Social ServicesLife, Physical & Social Science
Computer & Math OccupationsArchitecture & Engineering OccsProtective Services Occupations
Healthcare Support OccupationsBusiness & Financial Occupations
Production OccupationsBuilding & Grounds Cleaning Occs
Installation, Maintenance & RepairPersonal Care & Service Occs
Healthcare Practitioners & TechnicalTransportation & Material Moving
Management OccupationsEducation, Training & Library Occs
Construction & Extraction OccsFood Prep & Serving Related
Sales & Related OccsOffice & Admin Support Occs
Occupational Employment by Education Needed
First professional degree1%
Doctoral degree2%
Master's degree1%
Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work
experience4%
Bachelor's degree13%
Associate degree3%
Postsecondary vo-cational training
6%
Work experience in a related occupation
9%Long-term on-the-job
training6%
Moderate-term on-the-job training17%
Short-term on-the-job training
38%
Source: 2009-2019 Estimated Employment Projections Unit NMDWS
10 Occupations with the Highest Employment In New Mexico
Occupation
2009 Estimated
EmploymentRetail Salespersons 29,520
Cashiers 20,684
Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 17,194Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 17,162
Construction Laborer 14,853
Waiters and Waitresses 14,496
Personal and Home Care Aides 14,441
General and Operations Managers 14,048
Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners 13,873 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 13,692
NM Occupations, Most Annual OpeningsRank Occupational
Annual Average Job Openings
2009Entry Level Wage
(OES)
1 Retail Salespersons 1,167 $16,7462 Cashiers 1,120 $16,1173 Waiters and Waitresses 939 $16,292
4 Personal and Home Care Aides 882 $17,477
5
Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 851 $16,252
6 Customer Service Representatives 682 $21,289
7 Registered Nurses 539 $48,8638 Home Health Aides 524 $17,548
9First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Retail Sales Workers 411 $21,169
10 Stock Clerks & Order Fillers 401 $17,158
11Elementary School Teachers, Ex Special Education 369 $39,581
Highest Growth Jobs in NM
Occupations
2009-2019 Annual Percent Change
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts 4.2%
Home Health Aides 4.0%
Actuaries 3.9%
Personal and Home Care Aides 3.9%
Petroleum Engineers 3.8%
Self-Enrichment Education Teachers 3.4%
Medical Equipment Repairers 3.4%
Pharmacy Technicians 3.0%
Physical Therapist Aides 2.8%
Compliance Officers, Except Agriculture, Construction, Health and Safety, and Transportation
2.7%
Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers 2.7%
Medical Assistants 2.6%
NM Occupations – High Wage & Growth
Rank Occupational Title
2009Annual Entry
level Wage (OES)
09-19Annual Job
Growth
1Network Systems & Data Communications Analysts $40,681 4.2%
2 Petroleum Engineers $56,763 3.8%3 Medical Equipment Repairs $24,841 3.1%
4 Compliance Officers (Environmental, EEO Property, Regulatory) $31,356 2.7%
5 Radiation Therapists $46,765 2.6%
6 Physical Therapists $41,922 2.6%7 Dental Hygienists $27.51hrly 2.6%
8Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians $31,671 2.5%
9 Surgical Technologists $25,607 2.5%
10Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists $28,493 2.3%
11 Computer Software Engineers $52,435 2.2%
12 Training and Development Specialists $35,539 2.2%
13 Detectives and Criminal Investigators $42,114 2.1%
Show me the money!12 Highest paying jobs in New Mexico
Occupation
Annual Median
Wage (OES )
Family and General Practitioners $167,202
Dentists, General $163,711Obstetricians and Gynecologists $163,216Pediatricians, General $161,955Podiatrists $131,556Engineering Managers $126,672Actuaries $123,353Nuclear Engineers $119,862Law Teachers, Postsecondary $117,219Agricultural Sciences Teachers, Postsecondary $113,687Air Traffic Controllers $108,423Pharmacists $104,506
Lowest Paying Jobs in New Mexico
Occupation
2009 Annual Median
Wage (OES)
2009 Hourly Median
Wage (OES)
Ushers, Lobby Attendants, and Ticket Takers $16,090 $7.74
Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders $16,222 $7.80
Baggage Porters and Bellhops $16,414 $7.89
Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food
$16,424 $7.90
Cleaning, Washing, and Metal Pickling Equipment Operators and Tenders
$16,475 $7.92
Costume Attendants $16,495 $7.93
Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse
$16,606 $7.98
Designers, All Other $16,617 $7.99
Waiters and Waitresses $16,646 $8.00
The Top 15 NM Occupations in Decline 2009-2019
Occupation Title
Annual Percent Change
Textile Cutting Machine Setters Optrs -5.6%Bindery Workers -5.5%Drilling & Boring Machine Tool Optrs , Metal & Plastic -4.4%Sewing Machine Operators -4.4%Milling & Planing Machine Optrs, Metal & Plastic -4.3%Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors -4.3%Dental Laboratory Technicians -4.1%Packaging & Filling Machine Operators -3.4%Job Printers -3.4%Semiconductor Processors -3.4%Jewelers Precious Stone & Metal Workers -3.3%Order Clerks -3.2%Postal Service Mail Sorters & Processing Machine Optrs -3.1%Photographic Processing Machine Optrs -2.9%
Detailed job profile for over 800 occupations • Job Description +knowledge, skills, tasks, abilities
• SOC and O*NET• Training Program Completers
• Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) crosswalk Many-to-Many
• Typical Education Requirements• Wage Statistics by area and industry• Employment Projections• Employment by Industry• Area’s available:
– Statewide, – 4 MSA’s, – 4 Workforce Investment Regions
Tools for LMI• Career Solutions : http://www.dws.state.nm.us/careersolutions/
• LASER: http://laser.state.nm.us/
• NM Workforce Connection: https://www.jobs.state.nm.us/
• Green Jobs: http://www.greenjobs.state.nm.us
• National http://careeronestop.org/
• O*NET lookup http://www.onetonline.org/
•O*NET Academy http://www.onetacademy.org/
Education Pays
Thank You!
• Suzan Reagan• E-mail [email protected]• Phone (505) 383-2731• Ashley Leach , Phone (505) 383-2737
