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AMIS
FIFTH SESSION OF THE AMIS GLOBAL FOOD MARKET INFORMATION GROUP
MEXICO CITY, MEXICO
20-21 May 2014
Chapultepec Castle Bosque de Chapultepe
THE GEOGLAM CROP MONITOR:
STATUS, NEW DEVELOPMENTS AND NEXT STEPS
AMIS: IG/5 - 2014/2-Rev.1
The GEOGLAM Crop Monitor Background Document
May, 2014
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Table of Contents
1. Framework: GEOGLAM ...................................................................................................... 3
2. GEOGLAM Crop Monitor .................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Objective and Approach .......................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Approach and Process ............................................................................................................. 3 2.3 Crop Monitor Online Portal .................................................................................................... 5 2.4 Crop Condition Classification System ................................................................................. 6 2.5 Output Maps and Charts .......................................................................................................... 7 2.5.1 Synthesis maps ...................................................................................................................................... 7 2.5.2 Crop Specific Pie Charts and Maps: .............................................................................................. 8
3. Summary and Next Steps .................................................................................................. 9
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1. Framework: GEOGLAM The Group on Earth Observations (a partnership of governments and international organizations) developed the Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) initiative in response to the growing calls for improved agricultural information. The goal of GEOGLAM is to strengthen the international community’s capacity to produce and disseminate relevant, timely and accurate forecasts of agricultural production at national, regional and global scales through the use of Earth Observations (EO), which include satellite and ground-‐based observations. This initiative is designed to build on existing agricultural monitoring programs and initiatives at national, regional and global levels and to enhance and strengthen them through international networking, operationally focused research, and data/method sharing.
Both GEOGLAM and AMIS were endorsed by the G20 Heads of States’ Declaration (Cannes, November, 2011), when GEOGLAM was tasked to "coordinate satellite monitoring observation systems in different regions of the world in order to enhance crop production projections and weather forecasting data." Within this framework, GEOGLAM developed the Crop Monitor reports, which provide global crop condition assessments in support of the AMIS market monitoring activities. The first issue of the Crop Monitor appeared in the September 2013 issue of the AMIS Market Monitor.
2. GEOGLAM Crop Monitor
2.1 Objective and Approach The objective of the Crop Monitor is to provide AMIS with an international and transparent multi-‐source, consensus assessment of crop growing conditions, status, and agro-‐climatic conditions, likely to impact global production. This activity covers the four primary crop types (wheat, maize, rice, and soy) within the main agricultural producing regions of the AMIS countries. These assessments have been produced operationally since September 2013 and are published in the AMIS Market Monitor Bulletin. The Crop Monitor reports provide cartographic and textual summaries of crop conditions as of the 28th of each month, according to crop type.
Within the first issues of the crop monitor, the crop condition maps were based on the EO-‐derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) depicting crop growth anomalies. Starting in the May 2014 issue, GEOGLAM is releasing a more informative set of maps and pie charts that depict crop stage, crop conditions by region, and climatic drivers affecting these conditions.
2.2 Approach and Process The GEOGLAM approach is to bring together international experts from national, regional, and global monitoring systems, space agencies, agriculture organizations and universities, that can share and discuss information from a variety of independent yet complementary sources, enabling them to reach a consensus on global crop conditions. Information types include EO data and products, agro-‐meteorological data, crop models, and field reports (Figure 1). Representatives from 30 different agencies and organizations are participating in the assessments. The assessments are coordinated by the Global Agricultural Monitoring Center, in
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the Department of Geographical Sciences at the University of Maryland (UMD) with regional coordination of the rice assessment by the Asia RiCE team along with AFSIS (ASEAN+3 food security information system project) using the JAXA outlook system (JASMIN).
The current Crop Monitor contributors include (in alphabetical order by country): Country Organization/Agency Country Organization/Agency Argentina INTA Japan JAXA Asian Rice Countries AFSIS ASEAN +3 Mexico SIAP Asian Rice Countries Asia RiCE Russia IKI Australia ABARES South Africa ARC Australia CSIRO South Africa GeoTerraImage Brazil CONAB South Africa SANSA Brazil INPE Thailand GISTDA Canada AAFC Thailand OAE China CAS Ukraine NASU-‐NSAU EU EC JRC MARS Ukraine UHMC India ISRO USA NASA Indonesia LAPAN USA UMD Indonesia MOA USA USDA (FAS, NASS, ARS) International CIMMYT Vietnam VAST International FAO Vietnam VIMHE-‐MARD International IRRI
The assessments are conducted during the final days of each month in order to ensure that information is as up-‐to-‐date as possible for the end-‐of-‐month report. A telecon is held each month to discuss and review the assessments provided by the partner agencies and organizations via the Crop Assessment Portal and submitted reports. These telecons provide an opportunity to confer on issues and discrepancies and to reach a final consensus on crop conditions. The consensus information is then compiled into a report, which is reviewed iteratively by the partners and by AMIS before its publication in the Market Monitor. It should be noted that the findings and conclusions found in this joint multiple-‐agency reporting are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM expert group, and do not necessarily reflect those opinions of the individual Agencies represented by these experts.
Figure 1. Example of EO data sets
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2.3 Crop Monitor Online Portal In order to facilitate the monthly crop assessments, an online Crop Assessment Portal was developed by UMD. It includes a publicly available visualization interface (Figure 2) that enables
comparison between relevant datasets (national, regional, and global) according to crop type and accounting for crop calendars. The main data layers used in the interface include Global NDVI anomalies (UMD/NASA), Global Rainfall Anomalies (JRC), Global Temperature Anomalies (JRC), crop type maps of major growing regions (IFPRI/IIASA SPAM 2005 [beta version; released 2013]), USDA/NASS CDL 2013, AAFC
Annual Crop Inventory Map 2013, SIAP (Mexico) Crop Type Maps, GLAM/UMD wheat and soy masks, Australian Land Use and Management Classification (Version 7), and EC JRC MARS crop type masks), and crop calendars (based on GEOGLAM partner crop calendars and FAO and USDA crop calendars).The crop type maps and crop calendars serve as base layers that provide vital, spatially explicit information on the general growth stage for major growing regions for each of the AMIS crops (Figure 3). This information enables crop specific interpretation of the remote sensing-‐based crop condition indicators and provides context for the crop analysts’ assessments. As part of the crop monitor activity, new datasets that reflect the ‘best available’ crop type maps and crop calendars are being developed through the compilation of high quality national products developed by the GEOGLAM partners These will also capture information in cases where multiple crops are grown in the same year (i.e. 1st and 2nd corn crops). These two products are planned for release toward the end of 2014 in addition to other GEOGLAM efforts that are underway to produce other next generation global products.
Figure 3. Crop type maps for the 4 AMIS Crops (left); Crop Calendars by month and crop type (right)
The Expert portion of the portal is a restricted access interactive interface intended for both visualizing and annotating the relevant crop condition data and developing a range of crop condition maps, key components of the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor. Analysts log into the Expert portal towards the end of every month to provide sub-‐national information on crop conditions and the drivers affecting conditions within their regions (Figure 4). This information is used to
Figure 2. Crop Monitor Interface Enables comparison between relevant datasets (global, national and regional), by crop type and accounting for crop calendars
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generate a set of crop condition maps including crop specific condition maps synthesis maps that depict conditions for all four crops, and crop condition pie charts.
Figure 4. Dashboard tools enable analyst crop condition classification and commenting to reflect national expert assessments
2.4 Crop Condition Classification System Specifically in the context of the Crop Monitor, GEOGLAM experts developed a simple classification system for evaluating and depicting crop conditions and drivers. This system was developed based on systems used by the Agriculture and Agrifood Canada (AAFC) and the JRC MARS, with inputs from the AMIS Secretariat. For each of the four crops, the crop monitor analysts label each administrative unit within their region as: exceptional, favorable, watch or poor for each of the four AMIS crops. These conditions are defined as follows: Exceptional: Conditions are much better than average* at time of reporting. This label is used
only during the grain-‐filling through harvest stages. Favorable: Conditions range from slightly below to slightly above average at reporting time. Watch: Conditions are not far from average but there is a potential risk to production. Poor: Crop conditions are well below average. Crop yields are likely to be 20-‐25% below
average. This is only used when conditions are not likely to be able to recover, and impact on production is likely.
*”Average” refers to the average conditions over the past 5 years.
For any crop condition category other than favorable, analysts also provide information on the key climatic drivers that are having an impact on crop condition status. They may or may not result in impacts on final production.
The drivers include: Wet: Higher than average* wetness. Dry: Dryer than average Hot: Hotter than average Cool: Cooler than average Extreme Events: This is a catch-‐all for all other climate risks (i.e. hurricane, typhoon, frost, hail,
winterkill, wind damage, etc.). When this category is used the analyst will also specify the type of extreme event.
*”Average” refers to the average conditions over the past 5 years.
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2.5 Output Maps and Charts Building on this classification system, the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor developed a series of customized condition map and chart products. These include synthesis maps that provide information on all four crops within a single map, as well as crop specific condition maps and pie charts. These new GEOGLAM products are being released starting in the May 2014 issue of the Market Monitor.
2.5.1 Synthesis maps
At the request of AMIS partners, synthesis maps were developed to provide a simplified overview of current global crop conditions. Three versions of the synthesis maps were developed in order to provide varying levels of information. Each month, one of the three synthesis maps is selected for publication in the Crop Monitor report (all versions will be available through the Crop Monitor website: http://www.geoglam-‐crop-‐monitor.org). The monthly selection will depend on the number of crops in season and on key crop conditions and climatic drivers to be highlighted.
Below is an example of a synthesis map depicting crop conditions (Figure 5). The cropped area displayed is the total area for all four crops. Conditions are depicted according to the categories defined above (Exceptional, Favorable, Watch, Poor). Crops classified as having other than favorable conditions are displayed using crop symbols. Areas that are out-‐of-‐season are in very dark gray. Non-‐AMIS countries are identified in light gray and are not covered by the Crop Monitor.
Crop Conditions for AMIS Countries (as of April 28th2014):
Figure 5. Example crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based on information as of April 28th. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
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2.5.2 Crop Specific Pie Charts and Maps:
Crop specific pie charts were designed to accompany the synthesis maps and to provide additional crop-‐specific information (Figure 6). A country’s slice of the pie chart is representative of the country’s portion of the 5 year average of the total AMIS countries’ production for each crop. The Producers responsible for 90% of production are individually shown with the remaining 10% producers grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The area within each pie slice is divided between crops in season (color) and out of season (gray). The in-‐season portion is colored according to the various crop conditions within that country. The outermost ring provides information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions. The crop calendar, crop condition and climatic driver information are based on inputs provided by the crop monitor analysts on a sub-‐national division basis and therefore reflect crop conditions by area rather than overall national production. In addition to the pie charts, crop specific maps are available on the Crop Monitor website. Growing areas within these maps are specific to each crop (Figure 7). In addition to the crop conditions and drivers, these maps also include a crop calendar insert map. This insert map provides important context for interpreting crop conditions (i.e. potential impacts of various climatic drivers on final production can be better evaluated in the context of the crop development stage).
Figure 6. Example of wheat condition pie chart (as of April 28th, associated with Figure 5)
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Figure 7. Example of wheat specific crop condition map. Condition information is based on information as of April 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the key climatic drivers affecting conditions are displayed. An inset crop calendar map is provided as context.
3. Summary and Next Steps The Crop Monitor was developed in response to a request for the GEOGLAM community to provide monthly crop conditions assessments in support of the AMIS Market Monitor Bulletin. The focus is on provision of reliable consensus crop assessments conducted by the international GEOGLAM community of experts, with a focus on high quality national inputs and expertise. Since its launch in September of 2013, it has received much international interest, and has evolved considerably with inputs from the GEOGLAM and AMIS communities, and will continue to do so.
The next steps for this activity are: -‐ Continue to grow and strengthen the Crop Monitor partnerships, particularly within
countries that currently do not have national expert representation -‐ Promote strengthening relationships at the national level between GEOGLAM and AMIS
representatives -‐ Compile and release GEOGLAM Crop Monitor ‘best available’ crop type masks and sub-‐
national level crop calendars for wheat, maize, rice and soy for the AMIS countries -‐ Continue R&D on indicators of crop conditions and crop prospects including EO based
indicators of hotspots. -‐ Continue development and enhancement of output maps and pie charts, baseline data
sets and the online crop assessment portal. -‐ Develop supplementary information and reports as needed to complement the
information contained in the Crop Monitor.
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