The Future of WFO Hurricane Products in the Digital Age

Effective Threat Communications for Every CustomerEffective Threat Communications for Every Customer

Barry S. Goldsmith, Senior ForecasterBarry S. Goldsmith, Senior Forecaster

NWS Forecast Office, Tampa Bay, FLNWS Forecast Office, Tampa Bay, FL

2005 NOAA Hurricane Conference

Miami, Florida

November 30, 2005

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“If You Build It…They Will Come” Field Of Dreams, 1989

What We Will Build:

A Hazards-Based “House” of Data that will include many “rooms” for our customers to find the information

they desire.

How We Will Build It:

We will use the “materials” and “tools” from NWS Digital Services.

Why We Will Build:

•Eliminate Redundancy – too many products provide the same information

•Reduce Confusion by simplifying our message through graphics and text

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Some Graphical Issues

Web Pages: Front Page Map gets “cluttered” with Web Pages: Front Page Map gets “cluttered” with hazards, no easy way for customer specificationhazards, no easy way for customer specification

Graphical Tropical Hazards: WFOs provide good Graphical Tropical Hazards: WFOs provide good data but needs interconnectivity. Note differences data but needs interconnectivity. Note differences below.below.

WFO Melbourne WFO Tampa Bay

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Some Text Issues

HLS: Still unwieldy (non-segmented, too long, HLS: Still unwieldy (non-segmented, too long, headline requirements somewhat inflexible)headline requirements somewhat inflexible)

Redundancy: TPC advisory and HLS information Redundancy: TPC advisory and HLS information overlapoverlap

NPW: Confusion continues for coast vs. inland windNPW: Confusion continues for coast vs. inland wind Time needed to “handcraft” products despite other Time needed to “handcraft” products despite other

vital needs:vital needs: Digital data QC/AdjustmentsDigital data QC/Adjustments Impact assessmentImpact assessment Customer service (phone calls, email requests)Customer service (phone calls, email requests) Communications (interviews, EM support, IM) Communications (interviews, EM support, IM)

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Rooms In the House…

Examples of Rooms

Great Room All Tropical Weather Hazards

Master Bedroom Wind Watch/Warning

Kitchen Inland Flood Watch/Warning

Dining Room Surge Watch/Warning

Office/Den Tornado Watch/Warning; Destructive Wind Warning

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Furniture In the Rooms…

Graphical Information:

•All-Hazards Threat, by Area (Great Room)

•Color-coded Specific-Hazard Threat Levels, by Area (Master BR)

•Color-coded Probabilistic Specific-Hazard Threat Levels, by Area (Kitchen)

•GIS-based “Hazard Layers”, zoom option (Den/office)

•GIS-based “Hazard Layers”, by 5 km grid point (Fancy Master Bath)

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Furniture In the Rooms…

Text Information:

•Segmented HLS (Great Room)

•Area Wind Watch/Warning (Master BR)

•Surge Watch/Warning for affected tidal locations (Kitchen)

•Tornado/Destructive Wind Warning (Den/Office)

•Point-based Text, by Hazard (Fancy Master Bath)

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Blood, Sweat, and Tears

The Tools

Graphical:Graphical: Weather Editor (GFE)Weather Editor (GFE) Formatters (smart tools, web scripts, etc.)Formatters (smart tools, web scripts, etc.)

Text:Text: VTECVTEC FormattersFormatters

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Sounds Easy, Right?Well…Maybe Not.

The current state of the raw materials and tools would allow us to build this house now…

…Unfortunately, it might not survive a hurricane. It’s time to sharpen the tools and refine the raw materials to build it rock solid.

Here’s How…

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Refining the Raw Materials: Text

Segment the HLS.Segment the HLS. Offer area, county, and point-based.Offer area, county, and point-based.

Simplify our Hazard Products. There are five Simplify our Hazard Products. There are five possible hazards in all:possible hazards in all: Wind.Wind. Freshwater Flood.Freshwater Flood. *Surge.*Surge. Tornado.Tornado. *Waves/Seas.*Waves/Seas.

*Surge for Coastal/Tidal locations and large lakes. Waves/Seas for marine waters as well as coastal/tidal locations and large lakes .

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Sharpening the Tools: Text VTEC is readyVTEC is ready.. Code adjustments for simpler Code adjustments for simpler

hazard types would be minor.hazard types would be minor.

Robust Formatters are Needed for all (HLS) and Robust Formatters are Needed for all (HLS) and specific (VTEC) hazardsspecific (VTEC) hazards. A dedicated FSL/NWS . A dedicated FSL/NWS team would create software to generate team would create software to generate near-near-flawlessflawless text from digital data. text from digital data.

Locally-adjusted Impact StatementsLocally-adjusted Impact Statements, per hazard, , per hazard, would be “suggested” from digital data. would be “suggested” from digital data. Example: Sustained wind 90 mph gust 110 mph Example: Sustained wind 90 mph gust 110 mph

would highlight a Cat 2 impact, but forecaster would highlight a Cat 2 impact, but forecaster would have final say.would have final say.

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Refining the Raw Materials: Graphics

Standardized Graphical Tropical Weather Hazards Web Pages. This Standardized Graphical Tropical Weather Hazards Web Pages. This would allow for intersite consistency through NDFD. would allow for intersite consistency through NDFD.

GIS capability. Layered hazards, zoom/redraw at higher resolutionGIS capability. Layered hazards, zoom/redraw at higher resolution

Enhanced options: Probabilistic, Point, and Point Probability Enhanced options: Probabilistic, Point, and Point Probability information for each hazardinformation for each hazard

Web enhancement with GIS (i.e., Mouse Over, Flash, etc. options): Web enhancement with GIS (i.e., Mouse Over, Flash, etc. options): Hazard grids: Impact text, numerical value rangeHazard grids: Impact text, numerical value range Parameter Grids: Point or Point-probability valuesParameter Grids: Point or Point-probability values Linked hazard/parameter grids: Linked hazard/parameter grids:

For example: A moderate wind hazard could provide options For example: A moderate wind hazard could provide options for impact text, numerical range (hazard grid),for impact text, numerical range (hazard grid), or or forecast forecast sustained wind and/or gust value (parameter grid). sustained wind and/or gust value (parameter grid).

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Refining the Tools: Graphics

NWS/FSL/TPC Team consisting of SOO, IT staff, NWS/FSL/TPC Team consisting of SOO, IT staff, digital services staff, etc. to produce the following:digital services staff, etc. to produce the following:

Smart Tools to produce near-flawless baseline Smart Tools to produce near-flawless baseline hazard grids from parameter gridshazard grids from parameter grids

Smoothing technique for “camera-ready” Smoothing technique for “camera-ready” graphicsgraphics

Web-Enhancement through GIS and high-end Web-Enhancement through GIS and high-end interactive processes (mouse over options, interactive processes (mouse over options, Flash, scripting, etc).Flash, scripting, etc).

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Timeline

20062006 Finalize Concept of Operations and Details, Finalize Concept of Operations and Details, Select TeamsSelect Teams

20072007 Teams complete work on baseline before Teams complete work on baseline before peak of season (Aug), test new capabilities peak of season (Aug), test new capabilities

in “live” but in “live” but closedclosed environment environment

20082008 Refine graphical and text output based on Refine graphical and text output based on results from closed test by Jun 1. Run results from closed test by Jun 1. Run

OT&E at selected offices through Nov 1.OT&E at selected offices through Nov 1.

20092009 Implement system nationwideImplement system nationwide..

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The End Result: A Home we can all live in!

CustomerCustomer Room and UseRoom and Use

Television Television BroadcasterBroadcaster

Great Room; Segmented HLS text and/or all Great Room; Segmented HLS text and/or all hazards area-based graphics hazards area-based graphics

County County Emergency Emergency

ManagerManager

Master Bedroom (i.e., wind); Specific hazard text Master Bedroom (i.e., wind); Specific hazard text (VTEC) and/or GIS-adaptable graphical hazards. (VTEC) and/or GIS-adaptable graphical hazards. Impacts are most important. Impacts are most important.

Inland City Inland City PlannerPlanner

Kitchen (i.e., flood); Specific hazard text (VTEC) Kitchen (i.e., flood); Specific hazard text (VTEC) and GIS-based graphical hazards. Will combine and GIS-based graphical hazards. Will combine specific numerical data and expected impacts for specific numerical data and expected impacts for the particular storm to make best possible the particular storm to make best possible decision for pre-storm evacuation of low decision for pre-storm evacuation of low lying/riverfront areas and post-storm resource lying/riverfront areas and post-storm resource positioning.positioning.

Coastal Coastal CommunitiesCommunities

Dining Room (i.e., surge); Specific hazard text Dining Room (i.e., surge); Specific hazard text (VTEC) and GIS-based graphical hazards. Will (VTEC) and GIS-based graphical hazards. Will combine specific numerical data with expected combine specific numerical data with expected impacts for the particular storm to make best impacts for the particular storm to make best possible evacuation decision.possible evacuation decision.

Harry HomeownerHarry Homeowner Master Bath; Point-based Master Bath; Point-based deterministic/probabilistic text or GIS-based deterministic/probabilistic text or GIS-based graphics for any hazard at his location graphics for any hazard at his location

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Questions?

Thank You!