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1
Flourish or Fail?The Crisis in Higher Education
in a Global Context
Jamil Salmi
H E P I Lecture23 February 2011
the futureof higher education?
2
2
a world of science fiction?
• social and economic
progress is achieved
principally through the
advancement and application
3
of knowledge
World Development Report 1998/99
outline of the presentation...
• importance of knowledge
4
• changing education needs & practices
• implications for the United Kingdom
3
explaining the difference between poverty and wealth
S th K
6000
8000
10000
12000
per
cap
ita
(200
0 U
S$)
South Korea
Difference in output due to TFP growth or knowledge accumulation in Korea
5
© K4D progr
0
2000
4000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Rea
l GD
P
BrazilDifference in output due to growth in labor and capital in Korea
South Korea and Brazil
46 8
40.1
2010
7.4
17.7
13
52
46.8
9.1
30.2
2000
2010
60.7
48
32.6
44.4
4.3
6.5
2000
2010
tertiary
secondary
primary
79.5
41.1
17.8
49.8
2.6
0 20 40 60 80 100
1960
1980
91.1
86.4
7.6
9.3
1.2
0 50 100
1960
1980
4
creative work in the economy
7
8
5
evolution of Nokia sales
9
windmillswindmills
10
6
11
7
13
14
8
knowledge for safety
sismology
vulcanology
climatology (floods, tsunamis, droughts, etc.)
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tsunamis, droughts, etc.)
Haiti12 January 2010
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9
acceleration of speed of creation of new
knowledge
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how can we update our knowledge?
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10
outline of the presentation...
• importance of knowledge
• changing education needs
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and practices
changing educationneeds and practices
• new skills
20
11
21
changes in job task-skill demands in the USA
(1960 – 1998)
12
14
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Expert Thinking
0
2
4
6
8
10
rce
nti
leC
ha
ng
e
ComplexCommunication
Routine Manual
22-10
-8
-6
-4
-21969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1998P
e
Routine Cognitive
Non-Routine Manual
Source: Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003) “The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration,” Quarterly Journal of Economics.
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23
24
13
2006 PISA results
Percentage of students at each proficiency level on the mathematics scale
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
of
stu
den
ts a
t ea
ch p
rofi
cien
cy l
evel
25
0
10
20
Below Level 1 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6
% P
erce
nta
ge
Finland Korea Ireland Colombia Brazil Indonesia Hong Kong-China
2009 PISA results
2009 Percentage of students at each proficiency level on the mathematics scaleProficiency levels
Below Level Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 Level 6% % % % % % %
Finland 1.7 6.1 15.6 27.1 27.8 16.7 4.9Ireland 7.3 13.6 24.5 28.6 19.4 5.8 0.9Korea 1.9 6.2 15.6 24.4 26.3 17.7 7.8Brazil 38.1 31.0 19.0 8.1 3.0 0.7 0.1
y
Colombia 38.8 31.6 20.3 7.5 1.6 0.1 0.0
Hong Kong-China 2.6 6.2 13.2 21.9 25.4 19.9 10.8Indonesia 43.5 33.1 16.9 5.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
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new competencies
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15
design
29
luxury Razrwith lizard skin
30
16
Giorgio Armani-Samsung mobile
31
fashion phones
32
17
33
34
18
35
19
37
38
20
creativity
• invent
• experiment
• think out of the box
• take chances
• break the rules
40
• make mistakes
• and have fun…
21
creative work in the economy
41United KingdomUnited Kingdom
changing educationneeds and practices
• new skills
• lifelong learning
42
22
from innocence
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… to wisdom
44
23
today
postgraduate studies
45
first degree
Undergraduate studies
university of the future?
Career change studies
Graduate studies
On-campus
On-line
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Continuing education
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changing educationneeds and practices
• new skills
• lifelong learning
• learning to learn and unlearn continuously
47
25
new pedagogical approaches
• focus on learning gtailored to needs of individuals rather than teaching
• new and varied modalities for learning: interactive &
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interactive & collaborative learning
26
when you want…
51
where you want…
52
27
53
54
28
55
29
57
30
60
31
61
“In the early twenty-first century, people will be able to study what they want, when they want, where they want, and in the language they prefer, electronically.“
62
Peter Knight, July 1994
32
outline of the presentation...
• importance of knowledge
63
• changing education needs & practices
• implications for the United Kingdom
opportunityor
challenge?
64
33
challenges for the UK
• quality and relevancequality and relevance
• equity
• funding
65
• flexibility
“For sale: charming and peaceful residence away from neighbors, with a wonderful view of the sea, a grand period staircase, and lots and lots of light…”
34
quality and relevance
• programs– professional skills– soft competencies
• measurement of student learning outcomes
67
• effectiveness of e-learning
It is not wrong to be different.It is not wrong to be different.
IIt is wrong to be treated differentlyif you are.
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equity
• outcomes of primary and secondary educationsecondary education
• financial barriers
• non-financial factors– information
69
– motivation
– academic preparation
a genius in all of us?
36
a tale of two chemistryNobel prize winners
(almost…)
Lord Rutherford Sir Chris Langan
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Lord Rutherford
72
37
Chris Langan, the most intelligent man
on Planet Earth
• importance of motivation and social factors
73
effects of caste identityon academic results
7
High caste Low caste
3
4
5
6
ber
o
f m
azes
so
lve
d
740
1
2
Caste unannounced Caste announced
Nu
mb
Source: K.Hoff and P.Pandey, Belief Systems and Durable Inequalities : An experimental investigation of Indian caste. p.13. Policy Research Working Paper.Washington , DC: World Bank, 2004.
38
impact of social background on PISA reading score (2009)
5150
60
44 44 43 4240
3632 32 31 30
20
30
40
50
0
10
75
equity
• tension between excellence and equityand equity
– US: selectivity vs. efficacy (Penn State vs. Yale)
– US: merit scholarships
– UK: graduates from expensive private schools 55 times more
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private schools 55 times more likely to get into Oxford or Cambridge
39
77
funding: impact of the crisis?
• qualityquality
• equity
• international competitiveness
78
40
Comparison of US and UK Endowment Levels
US Institutions
EndowmentsAssets
(2009 million $)
UK Institutio
ns
Endowment Assets
(2009 million $)
Harvard University
25,662 Cambridge 6,327
Yale University 16,327 Oxford 5,767
Stanford University
12,619 Edinburgh 264
79
y
Princeton University
12.614 Manchester 204
University of Texas
12,163 Glasgow 164
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81
looking back to the pastlooking back to the past
looking ahead to the future
42
25 May 2010National Talent Development
Plan (2010-2020)
??
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flexibility
86
44
87
flexibility
• good feedback mechanisms• good feedback mechanisms
• strategic planning to orient change
• ability to react and adapt
88
rapidly
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90
46
91
a brave new world?
92
47
the brick university
94
48
the click university
95
96
49
competing in the learning society...
97
competing in the learning society...
98
50
competing in the learning society...
99
competing in the learning society...
100
51
rule of the strongest
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what is your vision?
