The Future of Comprehensive Immigration Reform in the United States

Presentation to the San Francisco Foundation

San Francisco, California

August 23, 2007

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Comprehensive Immigration Reform

Political Advantages1. Bipartisan political support from President

George W. Bush, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).

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Comprehensive Immigration Reform

Political Advantages2. Institutional support from United States

Chamber of Commerce (the economic establishment), the Catholic Church, and SEIU (the most powerful labor union in the country).

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Comprehensive Immigration Reform

Political Advantages3. Most public opinion research studies of

the U.S. electorate indicated that a clear majority of American voters supported comprehensive immigration reform.

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Would you favor or oppose allowing illegal immigrants who came into the country before January to apply for a four-year visa that could be renewed, as long as they pay a $5,000 fine, a fee, show a clean work record and pass a criminal background check?

67%

27%

6%

Favor

Oppose

Don't know/ No answer

Source: CBS News / New York Times poll, May 2007

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If it were possible to locate most illegal immigrants currently in the U.S., would you favor deporting as many as possible or would you favor setting up a system for them to become legal residents?

39%

51%

10%

Deport

Set upsystem

No answer

Source: Fox News poll, June 2007

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Comprehensive Immigration Reform Political Advantages

4. New America Media surveys demonstrated that legal immigrants from all over the world – Latin American, Asia, Africa, and Europe – strongly supported comprehensive immigration reform and that the overwhelming majority of undocumented immigrants would comply with the requirements needed to legalize their status.

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Granting illegal immigrants temporary work permits and allowing them to earn legal status by paying a fine, learning English, and proving that they have no criminal record.

15%

19%

14%

79%

72%

85%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

African /European

Asian

Latin American

Favor

Oppose

Source: New America Media Survey of Legal Immigrants, March, 2006

Press Conference

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Would you apply for this new (“Z”) visa so that you could live and work in the United States legally or would it be easier to remain undocumented?

83%

14%

3%

YesNoUndecided

Source: New America Media Survey of Undocumented Immigrants, June, 2007

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Requirements for New (“Z”) VisaPercentage that would comply

Be fingerprinted and agree to a criminal background check

94%

Be able to show that you have a work record in the United States

89%

Register at a government office and admit that you were in the United States illegally

85%

Pay $3,000 in fines for the head of the family and an additional $2,000 for each undocumented member of your family

83%

Source: New America Media Survey of Undocumented Immigrants, June, 2007

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Comprehensive Immigration Reform Reasons for its failure

1. The Hispanic electorate of the United States – approximately 10 million registered voters – is significantly smaller than the anti-immigrant segment of the national electorate, which comprises approximately 25 million Americans – 18 percent of all voters.

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Samuel HuntingtonHarvard UniversityForeign Policy essay “America's Latino immigration deluge

… is so little like any earlier wave, so hostile or resistant to sharing the common American language, civic rites and virtues upon which our … governance depends, that it constitutes a major potential threat to the cultural and … political integrity of the United States.”

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Emails to B&A in Response to New America Media Polls “It is un-American folks like you who keep

radical extremist Latino / Mexican organizations primed for their racially-motivated hate mission against America. NO MORE!”

“… Build a double fence along the Mexican border and stop the invasion. I don’t care if Mexicans pile up against the fence like tumbleweeds in the Santa Ana winds.”

“Call me a racist if you want but I’m tired of them (the undocumented).”

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The anti-immigrant sentiment in the United States is fueled by racism against immigrants from Latin America and Asia.

64%

29%

7%

Agree

Disagree

Don't know /No answer

Source: New America Media Survey of Legal Immigrants, March, 2006

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Comprehensive Immigration Reform Reasons for its failure

2. There was a perception in Washington during the immigration debate that the Hispanic political leadership was not united in its support for comprehensive immigration reform. Therefore, a number of progressive Democratic Senators voted against it.

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Progressive Democratic Senators that voted against Comprehensive Immigration ReformDebbie Stabenow (MI)

Tom Harkin (IA)

Sherrod Brown (OH)

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Comprehensive Immigration Reform Reasons for its failure

3. The voice of the anti-immigrant media was substantially louder than the voice of the supporters of immigration reform. CNN (Lou Dobbs) and Fox News (Bill O’Reilly) shared a strident anti-immigrant point-of-view. Most popular radio talk show hosts also attacked the undocumented with reactionary rhetoric. Vocal support for immigration reform was limited to the Spanish-language media.

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Bill O’ReillyThe Bill O’Reilly Radio Factor – May 29, 2007

“… America is run primarily by White Christian men, and there is a segment of our population that hates that, despises that power structure so they… want to flood the country with foreign nationals, unlimited, to change the complexion – pardon the pun – of America."

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The Neal Boortz ShowCox Radio – June 18, 2007

“Give them a little bag of nuclear waste as your lovely parting gift. …Send them all back across the border to Mexico. Tell them it’s a tortilla warmer. …And you’ll be able to find them at night too because they’ll glow.”

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Michael SavageRadio Talk Show Host – July 5, 2007

“Then there’s a story of college students that are fasting out here in the Bay Area. They’re illegal aliens and they want green cards simply because they’re students. I don’t understand … how this adds up. I would say let them fast until they starve to death, then that solves the problem. Then we won’t have to give them a green card … they don’t belong here to begin with."

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Comprehensive Immigration Reform Reasons for its failure

4. The economic consequences of not approving a new comprehensive immigration policy were never a major part of the national debate on this issue. The fact that important segments of the American economy may collapse (agriculture, construction, services, etc.) in the 21st century without a continuous influx of immigrants was barely discussed.

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The United States will have a substantial shortage of “unskilled” workers during the next 10 years

The U.S. Labor Department reports that our economy will produce 28 million jobs during the next 10 years for “unskilled” workers.

There will be less than 15 million native-born “unskilled” workers entering the job market during the next 10 years.

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The populations of the “North” – the United States, Europe, and Japan – will decrease over the next three generationsFertility Rate

1.3

1.5

1.9

2.1

2.7

2.8

5.4

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Japan

Europe

USA

Needed to maintain population

Asia

Latin America

Africa

Source: United Nations

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The global economy and the disparity of fertility rates will result in an accelerated migration of people from the “South” to the “North” during the 21st century

From Latin America to the United States and Spain

From Africa and the Middle East to Western Europe

From the former Soviet republics to Russia

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Japanese population 2007 – 127 millionJapanese population 2050 – 95 million

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Migrants may be the most important “commodity” of the 21st centuryEcuadorian Immigrants

18%

5%

44%

10%

38%

85%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2003

1990s U.S.

Spain

Othercountries

Source: Inter-American Development Bank

The Current Situation of Immigrants in the United States

Discrimination

Abuse

Disrespect

Harassment

Exploitation

Racism

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What is the biggest problem currently for you and your family in the United States?

9%

18%

13%

20%

34%

12%

12%

17%

24%

30%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Lack of access to affordablehealthcare

Lack of jobs

Increased cost of living

Low salaries

Discrimination againstimmigrants

Mexicans

CentralAmericans

29Source: Inter-American Development Bank Survey of Mexicans and Central Americans, May, 2007

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Univision Coverage

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Focus Group Comments

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Key Objectives for Supporters of Immigration Reform

Coalition building

Hispanic unity

Competitive media

Economic framework