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The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

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Page 1: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative
Page 2: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

The Future Just Happened

WORKSHOP

Geoffrey WongUBS ASSET MANAGEMENT

Page 3: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

3

The world is underinvested in China

Not to scale, for illustrative purposes onlySources: GDP: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2018. MSCI data as at 31 December 2018.

China

United States

Share of global GDP (2019 estimate)

24.5%

16.1%

54.4%

3.6%

MSCI ACWI benchmark weight

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

UnitedStates

China Japan HongKong

UK France Germany India Canada SouthKorea

USD bn

Source: UBS IB, as of 3 April 2018China market includes stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.

Domestic China market is the 2nd Largest stock market by mkt. cap

The second–largest stock market in the world, yet hugely under-represented in global portfolios

China Hong Kong

Page 4: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

4

Index inclusion: Opening up the domestic/China A marketGradual inclusion of China A shares into MSCI Emerging Market index

China26.0%

China A14.6%

100% inclusion(Potential full inclusion)

5% inclusion factor(2018)

20% inclusion factor + 20% China A MidCap

(To be completed Nov 2019)

China30.2%

China A0.7%

China29.4%

China A3.3%

4

Source: MSCI, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, as of February 2019

Inclusion of China A shares into MSCI indices will see sizeable flows and greater global investor interest

Page 5: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

5

Differences between China onshore and offshore equities

Onshore market

USD8.2trillion

>3,500 companies

Offshore market

USD4.5trillion

~1300 companies

China HChina A

23% 77%86% 14%

Turnover as % of market totalRetail Institutional

Turnover as % of market totalRetail Institutional

Source: FactSet, UBS IB. As of 3 May 2019Note for turnover charts : (1) HK institutional and retail turnover data is for 2016, (2) HK institutional turnover includes both institutional investor and principal trading conducted by brokers, (3) HK and A share mkt cap data as of 1H 2017. Source: HKEx, SSE, Wind, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Updated end February 2018

Page 6: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

6

The opportunity set can be very different too

onshore

offshore

Traditional Chinese medicines

Home appliances

Gaming & media Education services

Domestic liquor

E-Commerce

Page 7: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

7

China offshore: A large opportunity for active investors

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0Ja

n-11

Apr-1

1Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12Ap

r-12

Jul-1

2O

ct-1

2Ja

n-13

Apr-1

3Ju

l-13

Oct

-13

Jan-

14Ap

r-14

Jul-1

4O

ct-1

4Ja

n-15

Apr-1

5Ju

l-15

Oct

-15

Jan-

16Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6O

ct-1

6Ja

n-17

Apr-1

7Ju

l-17

Oct

-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8O

ct-1

8Ja

n-19

Apr-1

9

China Opp MSCI China MSCI World

MSCI World: 9.9% ann

MSCI China: 4.4% ann

China Opp: 11.7% ann

Actively managed China Opportunity strategy has performed much better than the MSCI China index

Note: 30 July 2010 to end May 2019, gross of feesSource: Bloomberg, Global Composite System

Page 8: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

8

China onshore: A larger opportunity for active investors

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

Mar

-07

Jul-0

7N

ov-0

7M

ar-0

8Ju

l-08

Nov

-08

Mar

-09

Jul-0

9N

ov-0

9M

ar-1

0Ju

l-10

Nov

-10

Mar

-11

Jul-1

1N

ov-1

1M

ar-1

2Ju

l-12

Nov

-12

Mar

-13

Jul-1

3N

ov-1

3M

ar-1

4Ju

l-14

Nov

-14

Mar

-15

Jul-1

5N

ov-1

5M

ar-1

6Ju

l-16

Nov

-16

Mar

-17

Jul-1

7N

ov-1

7M

ar-1

8Ju

l-18

Nov

-18

Mar

-19

China A Opp MSCI China A MSCI World

MSCI World from BBG. China A Opp and MSCI China A – for our GCS Wealth index.

Actively managed China A strategy has performed much better than not only the MSCI China A index, but also the S&P 500

China A Opp: 14.0% p.a.

MSCI World: 5.3% p.a.

MSCI China A: 3.5% p.a.

Note: 30th Mar 2007 to end May 2019, gross of feesSource: Bloomberg, Global Composite System

Page 9: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

Change means opportunities for active returns

Page 10: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

10

Long-term structural trends intact

China is...

Sources:1 https://www.caixinglobal.com/2018-07-20/chart-chinas-aging-population-101306922.html 2 https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/may/05/megaregions-endless-china-urbanisation-sprawl-xiongan-jingjinji3 International Federation of Robotics, September 20174 WTO, 2018

…consumingspender on global tourism4#1

...innovating & automating

most robots installed3#1

…urbanizing

cities1>600

…agingof population over 60 by 205021/3

Page 11: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

11

Services sector now dominant share of economy...and rising

Note: Primary industry involves the extraction and collection of natural resources. Secondary industry refers to Industry and Construction.Tertiary industry refers to Transport, Storage and Post; Wholesale and Retail Trade; Hotels & Catering Services; Financial Intermediation; Real Estate and OthersGCF: gross capital formation; GFCF: gross fixed capital formationThis information should not be considered as a recommendation to purchase or sell any securitySource: FactSet, UBS Asset Management. Data as of December 2018

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Total Consumption Total Investment (GCF)

% of GDP

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Primary industry Secondary industry Tertiary industry

% of GDP

Rebalancing towards a more service…. …more consumption driven economy

As consumer incomes rise, consumption tends to gravitate towards services from goods

Page 12: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

12

Consumption: Premiumization is a key themeChinese consumers are favoring premium brands over lower end products

3.6%

15.1%

25.9%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Total car sales BMW Mercedes Benz

Source: Bloomberg. Data as of end December 2017. Source: Bernstein Research, updated April 2018

-0.40%

2.40%

5%

10.60%

14.80% 15.00%

1%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

Low Price Value Standard Premium SuperPremium

UltraPremium

TotalBaiju

China: auto sales growth, 2017 (YoY %) China: Baijiu volume CAGR (2016-2020E)

Page 13: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

13

China's 65+ population is expected to grow extensively

0.2 0.20.5 1.5

3.0

5.91.9%

0.7%

2.4%

3.1%

4.0%

4.4%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

UK Japan Russia US India China

Annual Increase in 65+ Population (m)CAGR (%) in 65+ Population

(m)Annual increase in population above 65 between 2015 – 2030

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects, 2017

Can this challenge also offer investment opportunities….?

Page 14: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

14

China 4.2%US 7.3%

UK 10.2%

Taiwan 20.0%

An ageing population creates investment opportunities

780

2,500

0

1000

2000

3000

2017 2030 (f)

UK 1%

Japan 5%

US 10%

China45%

Rest of World17%

Rest of APAC22%

Healthcare market size in China (USD billions)

Insurance penetrationGross written premiums as % of GDP

Asset Management ServicesForecasted growth in AUM* between 2017-2021e (%)

Source: China Daily, December 2017Source: Ernst & Young: Global Insurance Trends Analysis, July 2018 Source: Casey Quirk, 2017; * AUM = Asset under Management

An ageing population creates rising demand for healthcare, insurance and asset management services

Page 15: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

15

Growth spurred by increasing R&D and innovation

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0 20,000 40,000 60,000

R&D

Spen

ding

, % o

f GDP

China (2007):US$49bn

China (2017):US$265bn

US:US$506bn

Japan:US$144bn

Germany:US$97bn

Korea:US$58bn

Taiwan:US$16bn

GDP Per Capita, USD

UK:US$49bn

India (2015):US$13bn

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Inte

rnat

iona

l Pat

ent A

pplic

atio

ns ('

000)

China Japan US UK GermanyNote: Bubble size shows R&D spending amountSource: OECD, WIPS, Morgan Stanley Research estimates. Data as of 2016 unless otherwise specified

Source: OECD, WIPS, Morgan Stanley Research estimates, as of end December 2017

Strong growth in China’s R&D spending …and international patent applicationsLeading to paradigm shift in quality and consumption of products and services

Page 16: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

16

China is poised to play in an automated future

453

397

359

326

300

274

316

301

292

285

287

287

950

748

585

451

340

256

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

2020 (f)

2019 (f)

2018 (f)

2017

2016

2015China Japan US

(units in '000)

China is ramping up robotics installations and automating its manufacturing sector

Total installed robots by country, 2016 – z2020 (f)

Source: International Federation of Robotics, September 2017

Page 17: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

17

Private sector has better growth, profits and health than SOEs

Debt to Asset Ratio for Industrial Enterprises Return on Asset for Industrial Enterprises

Source: NBS, Morgan Stanley Research, as of September 2018

51%

56%

61%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Jul-2018Total SOEs Private

0%

5%

10%

15%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Jul-2018Total SOEs Private

5% 21%47% 57% 70%

95%79%

53% 43% 30%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2010 2016 Current 2020ENon-SOE SOE

Source: NBS, Morgan Stanley Research, as of July 2018 Source: NBS, Morgan Stanley Research, as of July 2018

Private companies have healthier corporate balance sheet ROA has recovered from the previous lows

Private new econ vs old econ vs SOE – Earnings CAGR 2012-17 Composition of SOE and non-SOE in MSCI China

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, as of December 2018Note: This information should not be considered as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security

5%

19%

30%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

SOE Private - old economy Private - new economy

Page 18: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

18

TAL Education: a leader in after-school tutoring (ADR/offshore)

124 150 190 229 274 324 382 447 537 644 760 897

1,031

0

500

1,000

1,500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

(RMBbn)

TAL Education− Focuses on high-end segment− Largest online teaching platform; potential future growth driver

in online platform− Exploring overseas expansion

in Hong Kong and US− Looking into artificial intelligence

to improve online teaching services

A leader in K12 (kindergarten to 12th grade)K-12 tutoring market is consolidating even as it continues to grow rapidly

#1

Strong demand due to intense competition for places in local universities

Source: UBS Asset Management. This information should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any security.

China's after-school tutoring market still growing rapidly

Source: CLSA, iResearch, as of May 2017

Page 19: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

19

China 4.2%US 7.3%

UK 10.2%

Taiwan 20.0%

Ping An Insurance: leading life insurer (dual-listed)China’s insurance market penetration is low by international standards…

Source: Company data, JP Morgan, data up to December 2016. Updated July 2017

Ping An Insurance

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1H16

RMB mn

China Life Ping An CPIC New China Life

High agent productivity (Average First Year Premium per agent per month)

Source: Ernst & Young: Global Insurance Trends Analysis, July 2018

Insurance penetrationGross written premiums as % of GDP

…but that is set to grow

Beneficiary of structural growth in China

Insurance penetration rate is low and insurance affordability increases

More than just an insurance company – innovative company that has suite of digital financial businesses

Page 20: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

20

Kweichow Moutai: premium liquor provider (A share/onshore)

#1

Double digit growth for premium segment

Strong brand name, distribution and pricing power

High barriers to entry

-0.40%

2.40%5%

10.60%

14.80% 15.00%

1%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

Low Price Value Standard Premium SuperPremium

UltraPremium

Total Baiju

Why we like Kweichow Moutai

Baijiu segments in ChinaEstimated volume growth CAGR over 2016-2020

White liquor brand in China

Complex flavourgrain and water used from Moutai town

Buried for 4 years

Page 21: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

The elephant in the room

Page 22: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

22

• The path of trade negotiations between the US and China, and other countries, remains hard to predict. We take a number of perspectives to triangulate on possible outcomes.

• Observed data: weakness in capex, especially in EM, as companies defer capex. Trade volumes have tapered but not collapsed. Perhaps some pre-ordering. Trade has been shifting away from China even before Trump.

• Economic modelling suggests a worst case scenario of recession from late 2019 to late 2020. Thereafter growth resumes. • Corporate survey data and on the ground research: Shifts to SE Asia, Mexico. Some Korean, Japanese and Taiwanese

company will re-shore from China to the home country. Majority of Asian companies to change supply chain significantly. Behavior varies by industry.

• Conclusion: the risks are concentrated over the next 12-24 months, as the suspension of capex is already having a dampening effect on the economy. The slowdown risks becoming a moderate sized recession in event of tariff escalation. Beyond the 24 month horizon, investment should resume in a modified geographic pattern. In event of no escalation, a full blown recession may be avoided; capex resumes as supply chains are rebuilt to adjust to tariffs, helping a gradual recovery along with government stimulus measures.

Triangulating on the trade issue

Page 23: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

23

Without US-China deal, global tariffs may revert to 2003 levels

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

% Average applied weighted tariff across all products – US and globally

Weighted avg tariff US current level (June '19) After full China escalationIncluding car tariffs Including hypothetical Mexico tariffs with car tariffsWeighted avg tariff global

US tariffs: If 25% tariff applied on all Chinese + Mexico imports + car tariffs imposed we are back at 1941 level

US tariffs: We are back at 1974 levels with May's China escalation

US tariffs: after full China escalation back at '47 level

The US accounts for75% of the increase inthe global weighted avgtariff the last 2 years,(the other 25% is RoWretaliation to thosetariffs) pushing us backto 2003) levels

Source: UBS, USITC, as of June 2019.

Page 24: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

24

US tariffs could make it more restrictive than China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

HK

Sin

Bot

Mau Alb

Swaz NZ

Om

aC

an US

Bela Bel

Cyp Ger

Spa

EU Fra

Gre

Hun Ita Lu

xM

al Pol

Rom Slov Nic

Arm

Tim

Kaz

Tur

UAE Ku

wBa

hQ

atN

orM

olR

usM

ac Par

Sey

Yem

Dom M

alFr

PlU

ruC

hile

Bur

Indi

aG

uy Ecu

Rw

aBF Mal

iVa

nBr

a CI

Tan

Alg

StV

Ang

Cam Pa

kTo

gBl

zBa

nja

mN

gria

Nau Ke

nN

ep Sol

Cha

Gab Be

r

%Applied tariff rate, weighted mean, all products

ChinaMexico

Canada

EUUS

If the US were to fully escalate and apply a 25% tariff on all Chinese goods as well as impose car tariffs, its weighted avg tariff (8.87%) would be between that of Algeria & Senegal. A drop from rank 19 (in 2016) to 116 (in 2019)

Source: UBS IB as of July 2019. Note: Source: World Bank (2016 data), UBS [Weighted mean applied tariff is the average of effectively applied rates weighted by the product import shares corresponding to each partner country. Data are classified using the Harmonized System of trade at the six- or eight-digit level. Tariff line data were matched to Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) revision 3 codes to define commodity groups and import weights. To the extent possible, specific rates have been converted to their ad valorem equivalent rates and have been included in the calculation of weighted mean tariffs. Import weights were calculated using the United Nations Statistics Division's Commodity Trade (Comtrade) database. Effectively applied tariff rates at the six- and eight-digit product level are averaged for products in each commodity group. When the effectively applied rate is unavailable, the most favored nation rate is used instead.]

US tariffs have moved it from one of the most open economies in the world to one of the more restrictive

Page 25: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

25

Trade already affected, capex in EM particularly affected

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

in Millions

Quarterly capex (USD mn)World exports

Source: UBS Asset Management, Bloomberg, IMF, as of Jun 2019IMF Direction of Trade World (DOT) Exports to World, reported on Free On Board (FOB) basis. Time series data includes estimates derived from reports of partner countries for non-reporting and slow-reporting countries.Source: UBS Asset Management, Bloomberg, IMF, as of 30 April 2019

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

Q22019

Q22018

Q22017

Q22016

Q22015

Q22014

Q22013

Q22012

Q22011

Q22010

EM Capex DM Capex

Page 26: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

26

How much share has each region gained/lost in the world export market (change as % of world exports)

How much share has each region gained/lost in the US imports market (change as 5 of total US imports)

Investment Approvals (Secondary Industries)

Who has gained and lost so far?

0 100 200 300 400

ID

MY

PH

SG

TH

VN

KR

TW

Mar-19 Dec-18 Sep-18 1H18 15 - 17 (avg)

4Q Rolling Sum(2015=100)

Source: 1st and 2nd charts from left: Haver, Morgan Stanley Research, as of July 20193rd chart: CEIC, Citi Research, as of July 2019

-3.8%

-0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

1.2%

1.2%

-4.5%

0.1%

0.2%

0.9%

1.1%

1.4%

-5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0%

China

CEEMEA

Japan

LATAM

AxJ ex-China

Euro Area

Since Dec-17 Since Dec-18

-0.9%

-0.8%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.7%

-0.7%

-0.9%

0.2%

0.0%

-0.1%

0.2%

0.0%

-1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%

AXJ ex-China

China

Euro Area

Japan

Latam

US

CEEMEA

Since Dec-18 Since Dec-17

Page 27: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

27

• Majority (60%) of large/mid size Asia-Pac corporates say they are making major changes to their supply chain, though they still rank tariffs below regulation, disruption, and cost-pressures as a risk. Favored relocation destinations are in SE Asia. Cross-border investment spend on average is expected to increase [Baker & Mckenzie survey of 600 large and mid size Asian corporates, 2019]

• Response varies by Industry: Apparel is very mobile and shifts quickly to low cost countries due to short supply chain. Autos will have regional centers (Mexico/US/Canada, and Thailand/China/Indonesia/Japan/Korea). Tech Hardware may remain in China/Taiwan due to specialist component innovation in Shenzhen and Taiwan. Korean, Japanese and Taiwanese companies lean to partial re-shoring to the home base.

On the ground feedback

Page 28: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

28

China economy has limited direct exposure to the US

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Investment36%

China 2018 GDP Export by countryvs

Consumption62% Others

EU

BRI (BR + RU + IN)Japan

ASEAN

HTK (HK + TW + KR)

USA19%

Source: UBS AM, Factset, as of 28 May 2019

Net Exports 2%

Page 29: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

29

MSCI China too has limited direct exposure to US revenues

Asia / Pacific, 95.9%

US, 1.8%

Europe, 1.3%Americas ex-US, 0.6%

Africa and Middle East, 0.4%Unspecified, 0.0%

Sources of revenue for companies listed on MSCI China

Source: UBS AM, Factset, as of 28 May 2019

Revenues from China

>90%

Revenues from US

~2%

Page 30: The Future Just Happened - P&I EVENTS...The Future Just Happened WORKSHOP. Geoffrey Wong. UBS ASSET MANAGEMENT. 3 The world is underinvested in China. Not to scale, for illustrative

30

Growth impact of US/China tariffs by region (Q219-Q420)Global growth – baseline vs trade disruption (QoQ annualized rates)

Estimating impact of potential tariffs, "worst case"

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20

% QoQ, saar

Baseline China/US tariffs China/US/Mexico tariffs

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

US China Europe RoW World

bps

RoW growth elasticity China growth elasticity US growth elasticity

Huawei 2nd order effect 1st order effect

Source:.UBS IB, Haver, projections as of July 2019Note for RHS chart: this compares the index level of GDP at end 2020 with and without tariffs

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Policy measures to partly offset risks from trade conflict

Monetary policy easing to provide adequate liquidity

Relaxed regulations

1 2

3 4

Source: UBS Asset Management, Wind

Fiscal stimulus to cushion economic slowdown

Encouraged foreign investment and trade ex-US

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• Investing in China equities is more about the active return than the beta.• Long term trends are present in a changing China. This should continue to provide the

opportunity for active returns..• Trade war: the risks are concentrated over the next 12-24 months, as the suspension of capex

is already having a dampening effect on the economy. The slowdown risks becoming a moderate sized recession in event of tariff escalation. Beyond the 24 month horizon, investment should resume in a modified geographic pattern. In event of no escalation, a full blown recession may be avoided; capex resumes as supply chains are rebuilt to adjust to tariffs, helping a gradual recovery along with government stimulus measures.

Summary

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Years of investment industry experience: 32

Education: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US), SM, SB, MBA

Geoffrey Wong, CFA

Geoffrey Wong is Head of Emerging Markets and Asia-Pacific Equities with overall responsibility for all Emerging Markets, Asian, Japanese and Australian equity teams, strategies and research. Geoffrey is also responsible for research, portfolio management and construction for Emerging Market Strategies.He chairs the Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Committee and is based in Singapore.Geoffrey joined UBS in 1997. His prior experience includes co-founding an Asian investment management firm, where he served as Director of Investment Management responsible for asset allocation and stock selection for global and regional institutional portfolios.Geoffrey served on the board of directors of Singapore Exchange, the combined stock and futures exchange of Singapore between 2003 and 2006. He is a member of the Singapore Society of Financial Analysts and a Fellow of the Institute of Banking and Finance.

Note: As at March 2019

Head of Emerging Markets and Asia-Pacific EquitiesManaging Director

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