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APWA Orlando PWX – August 17,2017
The Future Isn’t What itUsed to Be
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APWA Orlando PWX
The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be
George Wentz, PEPrincipal/Vice President
Dave Zelenok, PEGovernment Services Manager
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APWA Orlando PWX
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APWA Orlando PWX
“Urban Fabric” – Neighborhoods Impact on Infrastructure Emerging technologies – Fiber Optics vs. Municipal Broadband Smart Cities - Street lights, Signals, Infrastructure
The Real Impact of Driverless Cars Neighborhoods – parking – congestion – plans Reliance on Telecommunications & Technology
What can you do today to position for the future?>>>50 things you never saw coming in 50 minutes…
Today’s Discussion – A Crisis of Innovation
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APWA Orlando PWX
The Topic: Infrastructure
• The Goal: Prompt your thinking out of the norm.
• So – what’s changing?• Emerging Global Trends
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APWA Orlando PWX
Urban Centers Replacing Fortress Malls…12% of ALL retail is now online…
Old Now
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APWA Orlando PWX
The Future will be Mobile and Shared…
The “Uberization” of the world…
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APWA Orlando PWX
Libraries are back!• Clothing• Seeds (Nashville)• Chickens• Boats, bikes, skis• Recreation/athletic
equipment• Musical instruments
… “Uberizing,” and, many still loan BOOKS
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APWA Orlando PWX
“Next Generation” of Neighborhood Development: Co-Housing
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APWA Orlando PWX
Co-HousingYou’re invited to:- drive on the sidewalks (?)- or play in the streets (?)
Note: “Common House”(meetings… guests…)
…and have supper together• Approximately
160 existing projects
• 130+ Co-Housing Projects under development
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APWA Orlando PWXSource: Wisconsin DOT
U-Turn Intersections: RCUT…say goodbye to left turns…
• Intersections can be either signalized (“Superstreet), or
• Unsignalized (“J-Turn”)
• Telecommunications: Crucial!
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APWA Orlando PWX
Emerging Trends – Experiential Design “XD”
Extra Attention on “Moments of Engagement”
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APWA Orlando PWX
Emerging Trends – Experiential Design “XD”
Design all services, journeys and interactions based on visitors’ “Touchpoints”
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APWA Orlando PWX
Emerging Trends – Experiential Design “XD” Enhancing and simplifying visitor
“experience” such as: Parking Transit Wayfinding Visitor Information
Often Managed through centralized, or “Smart” “Dashboards”
Smart Phones, Kiosks, Variable Message Signs, Info Centers, etc.
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APWA Orlando PWX
Emerging Trends – Sensors & DashboardsCrowd Sourcing – “WAZE” App (Google owns)Data Sources Include:• In Pavement• Bluetooth – O & D• Overhead / Microwave: DOT• Cell Phones• Users (Citizen Tweets)• FIRST: City-Reported: WAZE
Colorado Springs –• Re-routing around daily cone
zones
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APWA Orlando PWX
Data Sources Include:• Mobile Weather: Windshields & License Plates
report snow, temps and more• Next: Self-reporting potholes (no kidding)• Friction Measurements TOP priority
Emerging Trends – Mobile Weather Sensors
Thanks: Vince Jordan, Fathym/Weather Cloud
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APWA Orlando PWX
Emerging Trends – SMART ParkingWhere’s my spot?
Thanks: Stephen Evans, INDECT
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APWA Orlando PWX
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
• Driverless vehicles on a guideway
• One to four seated passengers plus luggage
• Direct origin to destination service – no stops
• On demand – not scheduled, very short headways
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APWA Orlando PWX
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
Now – Driver Assisted Vehicles Next – Autonomous Vehicles
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APWA Orlando PWX
What’s Next?Spaceships?Flying Saucers?…you’ll never guess…
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
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APWA Orlando PWX
High-Tech Power Systems 7 miles, 22 mph,
15 lbs Remember that last
½ mile problem? Add it to anything $500+ - “Hyperlocal
transportation”
Emerging Global Trends
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APWA Orlando PWX
Personal Micro Transportation
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APWA Orlando PWX
Personal Micro Transportation
New Terms:• MicroTransit• Last ½ Mile –
done.
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APWA Orlando PWX
Autonomous – Driverless – Self-DrivingCrucial will be: Totally Managed Systems
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APWA Orlando PWX
So What’s the Big Deal?
• Transit – 5% (maybe)• Carpooling – 5% (maybe)• Telecommuting – 10-20%
(maybe)• Driverless Capacity –
300% (yes)
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APWA Orlando PWX
So What’s the Big Deal?
Scary:• 10% Driverless – 2025• 80% Driverless – 2040*
What about our 2040 plans? How about 2030?
94% of COGs are ignoringthese facts
* DeLoitte
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APWA Orlando PWX
Rapid Innovation – Has this Ever Happened Before?
Horseless Carriage Cars and Streetcars
No horse
Complete modal transformation: 12 yearsInfrastructure: Catching up 100 years
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APWA Orlando PWX
Rapid Innovation – Has this Ever Happened Before?
• Cell Phones have become SMART phones
• Smart phone 10th
Anniversary – June 2017
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APWA Orlando PWX
Rapid Innovation – Are Just Roads Affected?• Quick “deep dive:” Parking
Garages ~ 50% increase in capacity
• Q: Who wants to pay for parking when you can send your car to run an errand for you:
• OR - Park itself in the neighborhood
• OR - Go for a joyride• Does this CLOG the
FREEWAY(?)
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APWA Orlando PWX
Final Thoughts – Driverless CarsWith autonomous cars –
Send your car home instead of paying for parking!
Are smart cars good for drunk drivers?
What about city revenue drops from no speeding tickets?
Might this be the end of mass transit as we know it?
Highways essentially become “train tracks” - BRT’s
With reduced accidents – Is there a reduced need for
ambulances, fire stations? What else don’t we know? Will driving become a distraction
for texting?
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APWA Orlando PWX
Emerging Global Trends – Smart Cities
Interconnecting everything: Streetlights, Utilities, Energy Traffic Signals, Parking,
Roads Transit, People, Logistic
Systems Sensors: Fire, Wearables,
Cameras, DronesTechnology is the enablerTelecom is the common threadThe “Uberization” of the world
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APWA Orlando PWX
Emerging Global Trends – Big Data
Looking at Virtually Everything… and everything virtually “BIG DATA”Predicting Traffic Jams -Adjusting signals dynamically and parametrically – just 30 minutes in the future by reading utility meters and Bluetooth Devices(?)
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APWA Orlando PWX
Emerging Global Trends – IoT
Bricks vs “Clicks” Online sales
Halal Economy New Banking Systems
Medical trends Virtual Doctors – “Doc
in a Box” Diagnosis via computer
“IoT – Internet of Things” Everything is online (yes) But now – Every THING is
on line
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APWA Orlando PWX
Integrated Community Needs/Goals
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APWA Orlando PWX
New Thinking – So How do I Get There
• Repurposing infrastructure• Bits, Bytes, & Gigabites
• Fiber for your city – Yes! • Broadband – Maybe?
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APWA Orlando PWX
Wireless, coax, copper wires and fiber Coax & wire systems: ~ 20-40 mbps 1 fiber strand: 1,000+ mbps (virtually “unlimited”) 2003: a few traffic signals on one strand; now ~ 5,000
households on one strand 500+ Cities are now investing in broadband Santa Monica, Longmont, Austin and more! 500 Smart Cities are Investing
Technology AdvancementsDo your cities have the technology?Are you doing all you can?
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APWA Orlando PWX
Telecom 101: Terminology & TechnologyAre you positioning your city for the future?2015: FCC redefined “Broadband:” 25 down & 3 up• About half of us don’t have “broadband” today
(http://www.speedtest.net/) Gigabit Cities• Approximately 100 including Austin, K.C., Chattanooga, and
Santa Monica1,000 Down and 1,000 Up• 30x the speed• Only $50-$70/month• Longmont: 20,000 customers x $50 = $1MM/month
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APWA Orlando PWX
Street Lighting - Summary
LEDs: reduce power expenses by 50%+, but – power often < 20% of total expensesCities now municipalizing lighting
Paying separately for energy Up-front capital and conversion costs R.O.I.s ~ 5-10 years
Millions in cost savings possible Re-purposing street lights: Conduit More
Valuable Traffic signals, utilities and public
broadband
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APWA Orlando PWX
Vail: Street Lighting & Free Wi-Fi
“5G” won’t exist for 10+ years• Requiring
thousands of transmitters
• Probably: Street light based
• Smart City & Emerging Technologies
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APWA Orlando PWX
Community Fiber – You ARE Already Well Positioned!• Plenty of existing public fiber
• SCADA - Utility Control Systems • Intelligent Transportation Systems• AMR/AMI - Automatic Meter Reading• Street Lights• Schools, hospitals, public safety
• Benefit• Focus on building infrastructure• Low cost entry point - “piggybacking”
• How• Develop “Fiber Friendly Policies”• Innovative Permitting, IGA’s and P3’s• Grant & Other funding sources
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APWA Orlando PWX
Business Models – “White Box”• Public Financed: Fiber & Wireless
Infrastructure/ Electronics• Private Sector – Service Only “P3”• Competition / Choice Increases (?)• So - $9.99: ISP, $20 Fiber
infrastructure = $29.99! 100 Megs via FIBER for ONLY
$29.99 per month?• Challenges: “Own the Box &
Customer” Model• Intriguing, Cutting Edge, Worth
Watching Publ
ic
New: “Point, Click, Subscribe” Model
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APWA Orlando PWX
Telecommunications & Infrastructure:1 – the SINGLE common thread2 – Really Lacking Today3- Under your government’s control4 – Cities can do TODAY5- Low Cost, High ImpactTelecom & Infrastructure : CRUCIAL!
So – Smart Cities are Inevitable What Can I do TODAY?
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APWA Orlando PWX
Update City-only Fiber Asset Management Identify all fiber-related assets:
GIS layers, records, conduits, strands, agreements, etc. Look for abandoned infrastructure (but - valves)
Estimate excess capacity and capabilities Explore telecom cost reductions by interconnecting city
facilities Develop partnering agreements - other governments Create strategic plan & agree on courses of action Explore street cut & pavement degradation fee
exemptions
How do you get there? 3 Step Program: SHORT TERM
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APWA Orlando PWX
Update City-only Fiber Asset Management Identify all fiber-related assets:
GIS layers, records, conduits, strands, agreements, etc. Look for abandoned infrastructure (but - valves)
Estimate excess capacity and capabilities Explore telecom cost reductions by interconnecting city
facilities Develop partnering agreements - other governments Create strategic plan & agree on courses of action Explore street cut & pavement degradation fee
exemptions
How do you get there? 3 Step Program: SHORT TERM
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APWA Orlando PWX
• Develop:• Pro-fiber policies • Co-location, Public-Private Partnerships• Joint-Build, Piggyback, Dig-once policies• Co-location incentives/requirements/ordinances• Fee reductions, individual agreements• COG /DOT grants to support fiber construction
• Review Fiber Program Management
• Appoint: cross-functional staff “Fiber team” –• Public Works, Streets, Traffic, Engineering, IT, Utilities
• Analyze Street Cut Permit System & Degradation
How do you get there? 3 Step Program: MID TERM
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APWA Orlando PWX
• Develop:• Pro-fiber policies • Co-location, Public-Private Partnerships• Joint-Build, Piggyback, Dig-once policies• Co-location incentives/requirements/ordinances• Fee reductions, individual agreements• COG /DOT grants to support fiber construction
• Review Fiber Program Management
• Appoint: cross-functional staff “Fiber team” –• Public Works, Streets, Traffic, Engineering, IT, Utilities
• Analyze Street Cut Permit System & Degradation
How do you get there? 3 Step Program: MID TERM
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APWA Orlando PWX
•Facilitate private sector competition and consumer choice •Exploring making some public assets available to private sector•Encourage internet-based economic development, job creation, new business start-ups and entrepreneurs•Encourage the private sector to investments •Franchise Agreements•Encourage new private sector providers •Facilitate access in public places•Monetize access to connectivity assets•Consider Legal Exemption, Analysis of Alternatives, gig-city
How do you get there? 3 Step Program: LONG TERM
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APWA Orlando PWX
•Facilitate private sector competition and consumer choice •Exploring making some public assets available to private sector•Encourage internet-based economic development, job creation, new business start-ups and entrepreneurs•Encourage the private sector to investments •Franchise Agreements•Encourage new private sector providers •Facilitate access in public places•Monetize access to connectivity assets•Consider Legal Exemption, Analysis of Alternatives, gig-city
How do you get there? 3 Step Program: LONG TERM
The future USED to be linearoLook for disruptive technologies –oThey will lead you to some chaos
– AND opportunity!
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APWA Orlando PWX
Final Thoughts – Did we cover everything?
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APWA Orlando PWX
As the saying goes, the future is now!
Technologies that seemed futuristic to the average person 5-10 years ago are already part of everyone’s work and personal experience.
Is your agency currently planning for or implementing any of these strategies?
• Developing infrastructure to support autonomous cars
• Repurposing underused utility and traffic signal infrastructure
• Providing municipal broadband services
• Adopting sensor technologies
• Reducing congestion and improving safety
• Planning for how the shared economy for cars, bikes, and housing will impact future infrastructure needs
Final Thoughts – Did we cover everything?
The FUTURE is –Not what it “used to be”PS - It arrives tomorrow!
Q: How’s your schedule?
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APWA Orlando PWX – Thank you
The Future Isn’t What itUsed to Be