The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England

The Father’s Day 2002 Severe The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across Weather Outbreak across

New York and Western New New York and Western New EnglandEngland

Thomas A. WasulaThomas A. Wasula

NOAA/NWS WFO at AlbanyNOAA/NWS WFO at Albany

CSTAR Warm Season ProjectCSTAR Warm Season Project

Kenneth LaPentaKenneth LaPenta

NOAA/NWS WFO at AlbanyNOAA/NWS WFO at Albany

Jessica Najuch, Dr. Lance Bosart, and Jessica Najuch, Dr. Lance Bosart, and Dr. Daniel KeyserDr. Daniel Keyser

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University at Albany/SUNYSciences, University at Albany/SUNY

Background Climatology on Background Climatology on Closed/Cutoff LowsClosed/Cutoff Lows

• Several patterns or categories of Closed Several patterns or categories of Closed Lows were developed from a subjective Lows were developed from a subjective analysis done from May 1- September 30, analysis done from May 1- September 30, 1980-2000 based on one closed isoheight 1980-2000 based on one closed isoheight for at least 24 hours.for at least 24 hours.

• The domain was from 36The domain was from 36º-48ºN and 65º-º-48ºN and 65º-88ºW, which is primarily east of the 88ºW, which is primarily east of the Mississippi River, excluding the Southeast, Mississippi River, excluding the Southeast, and south of Hudson Bay.and south of Hudson Bay.

• The predominant patterns/categories of The predominant patterns/categories of closed lows were the re-curving Great Lakes closed lows were the re-curving Great Lakes and Northwest.and Northwest.

Occurrences of Closed Lows from Each Category (5/01/80-9/30/00)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Category/Class

Oc

cu

rre

nc

es

NorthwestGreat LakesSouthwestZonalAtlanticTropicalMiscellaneous

58

3129 29

23

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Number of Occurrences

Month

Closed Low Occurrences by Month (1980 - 2000)

May

June

July

August

September

Closed Lows Per Year

7

9

10

7 7 7

6

2

10

9

10

8

6

3

11

3

15

13

12

6

9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f O

ccu

rren

ces

June 16, 2002 Father’s DayJune 16, 2002 Father’s Day

• A Closed Low approaching from the Eastern A Closed Low approaching from the Eastern Great Lakes RegionGreat Lakes Region

• A concentrated severe weather outbreak A concentrated severe weather outbreak produced hail, straight line winds and produced hail, straight line winds and tornadoes.tornadoes.

• Strong mid-level jet was moving through Strong mid-level jet was moving through Eastern NY and New England coupled with a Eastern NY and New England coupled with a 500 hPa cold pool aloft (steep mid-level lapse 500 hPa cold pool aloft (steep mid-level lapse rates), surface trough and moderate to high rates), surface trough and moderate to high CAPE values.CAPE values.

FO Tornado near Amsterdam in FO Tornado near Amsterdam in Montgomery CountyMontgomery County

F1 Tornado in southeast Dutchess F1 Tornado in southeast Dutchess CountyCounty

June 16, 2002 Severe June 16, 2002 Severe WeatherWeather

Eastern New York and Southern New England Severe Weather on June 16, 2002 – Fathers Day

NY-MA-CT

• 19 Hail reports

• 8 Wind reports

• 4 Tornado reports

Source: Storm Data

RAOB 500 hPa Heights and Temps RAOB 500 hPa Heights and Temps 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Father’s 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Father’s

DayDay

16 June 2002/1200 UTC 700 hPa RAOB Heights, Temperatures, and Dewpoints

http://www.spc.noaa.gov

16 June 2002/ 1200 UTC 850 hPa RAOB Heights, Temperatures, and Dewpoints

http://www.spc.noaa.gov

1200 UTC 16 June 2002 Surface 1200 UTC 16 June 2002 Surface MapMap

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Initial Analysis

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed

500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded


250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded

850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, Isotachs (m s-1) shaded and theta-e (K) dashed


500 hPa Vorticity Advection (x10-10 s-1) shaded and Heights (dam) solid lines

250 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded


850 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and Temperature Advection (x10-5 °C/sec)

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness dashed and 700 hPa RH (>70%) shaded


700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent

850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded


250 hPa Divergence (x10-5 s-1) solid contours and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded every 10 m s-1

Modified ALY 16 June 2002/1200 UTC Modified ALY 16 June 2002/1200 UTC SoundingSounding

Convective ParametersConvective Parameters

• CAPE = 1581 J/kg (Range for region 500-2000 CAPE = 1581 J/kg (Range for region 500-2000 J/kg)J/kg)

• Lifted Index = -5Lifted Index = -5• Total Totals = 47Total Totals = 47• Freezing Level = 8.4 kftFreezing Level = 8.4 kft• Wet Bulb Zero = 6.8 kftWet Bulb Zero = 6.8 kft• 700 – 500 hPa lapse rate = 6.5 °C/km700 – 500 hPa lapse rate = 6.5 °C/km• Energy Helicity Index = 0.6Energy Helicity Index = 0.6• Storm Relative Helicity = -57 (m/s)Storm Relative Helicity = -57 (m/s)22 (0-3 km) (0-3 km)• Precipitable Water = 0.81”Precipitable Water = 0.81”

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecasts for

1800 UTC

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast for 1800 UTC

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 (hPa) thickness dashed

500 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines and Absolute Vorticity (10x-5s-1) shaded

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr forecast for 1800 UTC

250 hPa Heights (dam) Solid lines and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded

850 hPa Heights (dam) solid lines, Isotachs (m s-1) shaded and theta-e (K) dashed

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast for 1800 UTC

850 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and Temperature Advection (x10-5 °C/sec)

MSLP (hPa) Solid lines and 1000-500 hPa thickness dashed and 700 hPa RH (>70%) shaded

700 hPa Heights (m) solid lines and omega (microbars/second); Warm colors indicate ascent and cool colors descent

850 hPa Winds (kts), 850-500 hPa lapse rates (°C) and theta-e (K) shaded

***ETA forecasting upward vertical motion coupled with forecasted 850-500 hPa lapse rates of 6-7°C/km

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast 1800 UTC

ETA: 16 June 2002/1200 UTC 6-hr Forecast 1800 UTC

250 hPa Divergence (x10-5 s-1) solid contours and Isotachs (m s-1) shaded every 10 m s-1

***ETA forecasts a strengthening of the upper level jet streak, and southern NY on cyclonic exit region with a large divergence maxima just off the New England Coast

Visible Satellite Picture 16 June 2002/1615 UTC

1500 UTC Surface Map (MSLP solid and Temps dashed)

L

KENX Radar Analysis of Severe KENX Radar Analysis of Severe Weather across NY and New Weather across NY and New

EnglandEngland• Overview of convective evolutionOverview of convective evolution

• Analysis of the Florida/Amsterdam FO Analysis of the Florida/Amsterdam FO TornadoTornado

• Brief Highlights of Hail and Wind Brief Highlights of Hail and Wind EventsEvents

• Briefly analyze Dutchess/Litchfield Briefly analyze Dutchess/Litchfield County Tornado from a supercellCounty Tornado from a supercell

1557 UTC KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity

ALY


KENX 0.5° Base Reflectivity Loop 1702 UTC to 1856 UTC

1638 UTC KENX 0.5°

Base Reflectivity

1638 UTC KENX 0.5°

SRM

1644 UTC KENX 0.5°

Base Reflectivity

1644 UTC KENX 0.5°

SRM

1650 UTC KENX 0.5°

Base Reflectivity

1650 UTC KENX 0.5°

SRM

1656 UTC KENX 0.5°

Base Reflectivity

1656 UTC KENX 0.5°

SRM

1702 UTC KENX 0.5°

Base Reflectivity

1702 UTC KENX 0.5°

SRM

Amsterdam/Florida FO Amsterdam/Florida FO TornadoTornadoDistance (nm)Distance (nm) Time (UTC)Time (UTC) Vrotational Vrotational

(kts)(kts)Shear (sShear (s-1-1))

0.50.5 16381638 21.221.2 0.0240.024

0.50.5 16441644 16.016.0 0.0200.020

0.50.5 16501650 21.021.0 0.0220.022

0.50.5 16561656 16.016.0 0.0190.019

1.01.0 17021702 21.021.0 0.0110.011

***Tornado first reported at 1650 UTC***

KENX 1656 UTC VAD Wind Profile

MAX VIL=44 kg/m2

1.50” hail in Columbia County

1737 UTC KENX VIL Product

VIL of Day was around 35

kg/m2

1749 UTC KENX Composite Reflectivity

1749 UTC KENX Composite Reflectivity Cross-Section in Columbia County

1813 UTC KENX VIL and MESO

MAX VIL = 38 kg/m2

ALY

1813 UTC KENX 0.5° Velocity

1842 UTC KENX 0.5° SRM – Pawling Tornado in Dutchess Co.





Preliminary ResultsPreliminary Results

• 500 hPa Closed low off the Eastern Great Lakes help 500 hPa Closed low off the Eastern Great Lakes help initiate convective outbreak.initiate convective outbreak.

• Surface trough coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates Surface trough coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (cold pool aloft), low wet-bulb zero values, high CAPE (cold pool aloft), low wet-bulb zero values, high CAPE values (large instability) and dewpoints in the 50’s and values (large instability) and dewpoints in the 50’s and lower 60’s fueled organized low topped multicelluar lower 60’s fueled organized low topped multicelluar convection that coalesced into a line…with a supercell convection that coalesced into a line…with a supercell south of it.south of it.

• Locations hit by convection were situated in the cyclonic Locations hit by convection were situated in the cyclonic exit region/left front quad of the 250 hPa upper level jet.exit region/left front quad of the 250 hPa upper level jet.

• Tornadic development was aided by large instability and Tornadic development was aided by large instability and shallow low-level veering (Sfc to 850 hPa). Predominant shallow low-level veering (Sfc to 850 hPa). Predominant flow aloft (mid and upper-levels) was Southwesterly. flow aloft (mid and upper-levels) was Southwesterly.

Future WorkFuture Work

• To further develop the mesoscale To further develop the mesoscale analysis with the use of profiler data.analysis with the use of profiler data.

• To examine KOKX radar data for To examine KOKX radar data for Pawling tornado.Pawling tornado.

• To examine the local terrain effects To examine the local terrain effects on the tornadic development.on the tornadic development.

• Compare this closed low case with Compare this closed low case with others done in the CSTAR project(s).others done in the CSTAR project(s).

Documents

The Father’s Day 2002 Severe Weather Outbreak across New York and Western New England