The Energy Problem and Lawrence Berkeley National

Laboratory

California Air Resources Board 27 February, 2008

Some risks of climate change*: • Water Shortages

• Property losses and population displacement from sea-level rise

• Increased damage from storms, floods, wildfires

• Reduced productivity of farms, forests, & fisheries

• Increased species extinction

• Spread of disease (malaria, cholera, dengue fever, …)

* See the Stern Review Report: “Part II: The Impacts of Climate Change on Growth and Development”

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences (2004)

Using two climate models that bracket most of carbon emissions scenarios:

B1 A1 fi 500ppm Current path

(BAU)

Heat wave mortality: Alpine/subalpine forests Sierra snowpack

2-3x 50–75% 30–70%

5-7x 75–90% 73–90%

78% of British Columbia pine will have died by 2013.

“Approximately 40% of the merchantable pine volume in the province has likely already been killed.” British Columbia, Ministry of Forests and Range, 2006

,...~ ~~ t~l

J:)

JO

I;1· ,~

How would atmospheric CO2 be affected by global warming?

Atm CO2 would increase because:

• Warming may enhance decomposition

• Increased ocean stratification more carbon in mixed layer

reduced air-to-sea flux

• ….

Atm CO2 would decrease because:

• warming may enhance photosynthesis

• Enhanced marine productivity and export

• …

6 I air - OPtran Correlation Coemc1ent 90N

60N

30N

0

30S

60S

90S

180 150W 120W 90W 60W 30W 0 30E 60E 90E 120E 150E 180

-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 6NPP - 6T8 ;, Regression Slope

90N

60N

30N

0

30S

60S

90S

180 150W 120W 90W 60W 30W 0 30E 60E 90E 120E 150E 180

-300 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 300

21st Century Correlations & Regressions: FF= SRES A2 ; δ = Coupled minus Uncoupled

21st Century Correlations & Regressions: FF= SRES A2 ; δ = Coupled minus Uncoupled

{δT, δSoil Moisture Index}

Warm-wet

Warm-dry

Regression of δNPP vs δT

NPP decreases with carbon-climate coupling

Fung et al. Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate. PNAS 2005

A dual strategy is needed to solve the energy problem:

1) Maximize energy efficiency and decrease energy use. This part of the solution will remain the lowest hanging fruit for the next few decades.

2) Develop new sources of clean energy

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 3,800 employees, ~$520 M / year budget

11 employees were awarded the Nobel Prize, (9 did their Nobel work at the Lab.)

Berkeley(Over 55 Nobel Laureates either trained or had Lab 200-significant collaborations at LBNL) acre site

Today:

~ 3% of the members of National Academy of Sciences, 18 in the National Academy of Engineering,UC Berkeley

2 in the Institute of MedicineCampus

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Total Electricity Use, per capita, 1960 - 2001

12,000

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

KW

h

Electricity use per person (1960 – 2001) kWh14,000

U.S.

California

Art Rosenfeld turns his attention to the energy problem

1962

1964

1966

1968

1972

1974

1976

1978

1982

1984

1986

1988

1992

1994

1996

1998

12,000

8,000 7,000

GWH Impacts from Programs Begun Prior to 2001

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Half of the energy savings in California were made by

separating utility profits from selling more energy G

WH

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Utility Programs

Building Standards

Appliance Standards

~ 14% of Annual Use in California in 2001

Source: Mike Messenger, CEC Staff, April 2003

High Performance Buildings Research & Implementation Center

(HiPerBRIC)

United Technologies

“Prius of Buildings: Exploiting the Interfaces between Building Systems”

Buildings Design & Energy Analysis

HVAC Natural Ventilation, Indoor Environment

Windows & Lighting Networks,

Communications

Building Materials Sensors,

Domestic/International Controls Policies, Regulation, Standards, Markets

Power Delivery & Demand Response

Demonstrations

Integration & Building Operating Platform

Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem by 2050

• Oil, Unconventional Oil • Coal • Gas • Fission • Geothermal

• Wind • Solar photovoltaic

and Solar thermal • Bio-mass

Base-load electricity generation

Energy storage and efficient electricity transmission is needed before transient sources >30% of baseload

Estimated Temperatures at 6 Kilometers L09Qnd

Rrloerl Lake& - Geoc;,rusurezone,

v..,_ .. ._,_,._,._.,_,,_ _ __ .,__,~kll-&lll.,._.... , ____ "'

-ll-~'==-==" .. <14il~ZCH-~"" ~=:.:::.::,~~!~::" .. --

.,. .

> 250

225 - 250

175 - 200

125 - 150

75 - 100

< 50

Temperature ° C

U.S. Geothermal Resources are Huge

Heat at 6 km depth:

• T > 200 ˚C: 296,000 EJ*; T > 125 ˚C: 2,410,000 EJ

• Total US energy consumption: ≈ 100 EJ

• Total U.S. geothermal energy use is ~0.3 %

Reservoir

Why is Geothermal Energy Contribution so Small?

• Geothermal energy extraction is currently limited to natural hydrothermal systems.

• There is a vast store of geothermal heat that is difficult to recover (hot rocks lacking fluid and permeability).

inject cold water produce hot water

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) EGS is currently not economically

viable. The chief obstacles are:

dissolution and precipitation of rock minerals, that may cause anything from short-circuiting flows to formation plugging large power requirements for keeping water circulating water losses from the circulation system inadequate reservoir size - heat transfer limitations high cost of deep boreholes (≈ 5 km)

fracture network in hot rock

Helios: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory and UC Berkeley

Cellulose-degradingCellulosePlants microbes Engineered

photosynthetic microbes Methanol and plants Ethanol

Hydrogen Artificial Hydrocarbons

Photosynthesis PV Electricity Electrochemistry

Energy Storage

• Large scale for storage of renewable sources of energy such as wind and solar thermal and photo-voltaic sources.

• Small scale for isolated (off-grid) villages, communities, buildings, homes, automobiles, laptop computers, ….

Battery Usage in EVs, HEVs, and PHEVs

HEV

EV

0.2-0.4 kWh CS Used frequently in CS ~

'"----- -----✓~

0.2-0.4 kV\lh cs ~

Used .sometim,es in CS

C arged and used (CD)

Charged and used (CD)

Total Battery Capacity*

1-2 k\\Th I

6- U k\Vk-30-40 k\Vk

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 BO 90 100

CD: Charge Deple,ting SOC Rang (o/a) cs: Charge Sustaining

12 *Battery capacity for a m idsize car

IRep1eat1ed cycling led to th 1e rough 1ening of· the lli surface .a.nd 1eventu.ally to c.atastrophic dendrit1e growth.

PEO

t-O intermediate times high surface area Li

dendrite short

------LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABCRATCRY _____ _

Fatal Flaw in Polyethylene Oxide

Hybrid solution:* use a co-block polymer that self-organizes into

PEO (dark bands)

Polystyrene (light bands)

* Nitash Balsara, Materials Science Division, LBNL; UC Berkeley professor

100 nm

• ~ Berl~eley Lab 1·5 I 13 19¥-13 I 59948 P.511-1 h◄R-5+1 P.S-·I

~ Office of ~ Science

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

A lithium – metal battery material with a dry, block copolymer separator shows promise. (Nitash Balsara)

Latest results of prototype ~ 1000 deep discharge cycles and no sign of degradation. Energy density initial target: 2x Li-ion

Distributed storage capacity potential

• In North America, there are ~260 million vehicles ~ 100 M personal automobiles.

• Assume 50% market penetration and 30 kWh storage per electric vehicle.

• (50 x 106 cars)(30kWh) = 1.5 x 109 kWh = 1.5 TWh > 10% of energy used/day

50 M cars can be programmed to buy energy at night (at low cost) and sell back during the afternoon (at high cost).

Limiting factors for plant productivity

•

Baldocchi et al. 2004 SCCJPE 62

~ 0.2 – 0.3% of the non-arable land in the world would be need to generate current

electricity needs (~ 4 TW) with solar electricity generation at 20% efficiency.

Rad/water temp/waterTemp/water limitationlimitation limitation

.. l Ill .. .!! 0 "Cl 0 Cl) Cl) ...

20,ooo~------------------------------------------------------------0 D Resean:h, development, and deployment phase

1983

5,000

2,000

1,000

e Commercialization phase

...... o ····-·························-················· .. ·-········ .. ···············-··············· .................................... ..................................................... .

0 United States □Japan

0

........................................................................... □ .. 1995

■

1987

• ................... .. . ....................................

1980

200 .... .... ................... ........... .... ......... .... .... .. .. ............... .. ................. ..

100 -----------..----------------------..-------------10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

Cumulative megawatts installed (log)

Cost of electricity generation vs. installed capacity(1990 dollars / installed Megawatt hour)

Photovoltaics

2005 10x cost difference

Windmills (not including distribution,

energy 2005 storage and

back-up generation

Gas turbines costs)

MOLECULAR FOUNDRY FACILITY DIRECTORS

Organic and Macromolecular Synthesis Facility Jean MJ Frechet

Inorganic Nanostructures Facility A. Paul Alivisatos

Nanotabrication Facility Jeffrey Bokor

Biological Nanostructures Facility Carolyn R. Bertozzi

Theory of Nanostructured Materials Steven G. Louie

Imaging and Manipulation of Nanostructures Facility Miquel Salmeron Research Interests

The Molecular Foundry

Reel-to-reel mass production of solar cells using nano-technology?

Energy Biosciences Institute $50M/ year for 10 years

Univ. California, Berkeley Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Univ. Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

•

■ 50_ Berl~eley Lab 1·1 ■-13 13¥·1+13395¥ f-531-1 P.593-f ■ -liii-i · F

I JQINT DIQENE ~ ,y [NIS1"111JTl!i

~ Office of ~ Science

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

DOE IHOe · .. ·

I . .

Joint Bio-Energy Institute (JBEI) LBNL, Sandia, LLNL, UC Berkeley,

Stanford, UC Davis $25M / year for 5 years

Feedstock grasses (Miscanthus) is a largely unimproved crop. Non-fertilized, non-irrigated test field at U. Illinois yielded

15x more ethanol / acre than corn.

50 M acres of energy crops plus agricultural wastes (wheat straw, corn stover, wood residues, urban waste, animal

manure, etc. ) can produce half to all of current US consumption of gasoline.

Lignocellulose

JGI~ DOE JOINT GENOME INSTITUTE US DEPARTMENl Of 1: NEflGY Of f' IC£ or SC IENCE

Advancing Science with DNA SequenceTermites have many specialized enzymes for efficiently digesting lignocellulosic material

Mono- & oligomers

Glucose, fructose, sucrose

Acetate

Fermentation pathways

H2 &

CO2

Fermentation pathways

Cellulases Hemicellulases

IN "~ ~ . ' I I~ ... .J ·,]:;i,. •.M'fl••r• ·u, f ,J, ...,, ·11 ~ ,, •ltr ~ -. ., . • -;,.,. ;' ·1 "~,.:i ,

---- - '"•I ·t1• .J.j

•,l!f;i;1 ,rrJJ ,1 ....,._.~" It ·l """"'·1 •1'·· ,, •,J,. J 11•1 ff•,i, ~1.,"W~).oi;rA ~r1•'1"1~ "~" •..p­

__., .f>,,., ""'•l'" , ,. w),. ,., ,..j-

lot ." .-tin -41•1,,,..,,. ; ""'· ... 1 ,1;,• ,,.;,

,.,.,,J,.. ..,)'f~~.,,...~ n-t•1•1\1a " -1) .,.,,.,;),. -----~ - 'J•i'11'°""' ,,,,..~)

·, ,, .. ~.,, -~-illiJ!-7

~J◄of~ ·,J~rr,

, I" •• ,r;. ~I ,rf',"'/rf•..n~ -t:A ~ ?l"' ~,,. .. •1•1H'I t,,j,.,-,fl"""1ft~, .-i •,H ~ l ,t"L . '. ~-~ ~., r ,

ti~' (1'•,t-f/11 •,n )'- ..,,. .,t.,,,., ~.,tb •I" ., ' -,Ir-:, .. <t'J t ~~ 4tct ::i ti«•¥" o,ff'

Man first learned to fly by imitating nature

Can we make an artificial photosynthesis system?

HELIOSHELIOSHELIOS Water Splitting by Sunlight

2 H2O 2 H2 + O2

H

H O

H H

O

O O

H H H H

Stored Energy

2 H2 + O2

2 H2O

Water Splitting Raction

Heinz Frei

Mn Mn Mn Mn

Mn Mn Mn Mn

Mn Mn Mn Mn

HELIOSHELIOSHELIOS Carbon Dioxide to Liquid Fuel by Sunlight

2 CO2 + 4 H2O 2 CH3OH + 3 O2

Chris Chang

Stored Energy

2 CH3OH + 3O2

2 CO2 + 4H2O

Fuel-Forming Reaction

H H O

OH H

O OC

O C

O

CH3 H O HO CH3

O O

O O

E.O. Lawrence introduced the idea of “team science”

Ernest Lawrence, Robert Serber, Luis Alverez, Edwin McMillan, Robert Oppenheimer, Robert Wilson (Glenn Seaborg not present)

Bardeen

Materials Science Brattain Theoretical and experimental physics

- Electronic structure of semiconductors

- Electronic surface states - p-n junctions

Shockley

Common denominators of the best run research laboratories during their “golden eras”

• Individual genius was nurtured, especially in their early careers; individuals were encouraged to quickly formteams to rapidly exploit ideas.

• The scientific direction was guided by collective wisdom and “managed” by top scientists with intimate, expert knowledge.

• Bold approaches were encouraged; some failure was expected, but there was an emphasis on recognizing failure quickly, and moving on to other opportunities.

“On December 10, 1950, William Faulkner, the Nobel Laureate in Literature, spoke at the Nobel Banquet in Stockholm,

… I believe that man will not merely endure: he will prevail. He is immortal, not because he alone among creatures has an inexhaustible voice, but because he has a soul, a spirit capable of compassion and sacrifice and endurance.’

With these virtues, the world can and will prevail over this great energy challenge.”

Steven Chu (USA) and José Goldemberg (Brazil) Co-Chair’s Preface

lnterAcademy Council About the IAC I

“Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future”

Released October 22, 2007

Co-chairs: Jose Goldemberg, Brazil Steven Chu, USA

Earth RiseEarthrise from Apollo 8 (December 24, 1968 )

How about using CO2 as Heat Transmission Fluid?

property CO2 water

chemistry poor solvent for rock minerals powerful solvent for rock minerals: lots of potential for dissolution and precipitation

fluid circulation in wellbores

highly compressible and larger expansivity ==> more buoyancy, lower parasitic power consumption

low compressibility, modest expansivity ==> less buoyancy

ease of flow in reservoir

lower viscosity, lower density higher viscosity, higher density

heat transmission smaller specific heat larger specific heat

fluid losses earn credits for storing greenhouse gases

costly

Favorable properties are shown bold-faced.

30,000

24,000

18,000

12,000

6,000

~ ~ '-'

Modest but stable fiscal incentives were essential to stimulate long term development of

power generation from wind

3 MW capacity deployed and 5 MW generators in design (126 m diameter rotors).

UNITED STATES ANNUAL AVERAGE WIND POWER

., ' ,·~--­~ \ ()

D "'! 'a

---=,;;..------ --·

PUERTO RICO

• H ~ ---~1, w;ag ~,·C-~U ••

Wind sites in the US

Advantages of High Voltage DC over AC transmission:

After 500km, HVDC is less expensive!

• Two conductors vs. 3 or 4 for AC. • Radiative and dielectric losses are much less. • Capacitance losses

(Energy used to polarize the capacitance of the cable and surrounding environment)

•Long distance DC grid system will make a more robust grid system.

in many locations

----------- _:::::::~ ::::::: ____________________ :::~ ::---- -

Many Drivers, Including ImprovedEconomics and Policy Support

Wind power with PTC competitive 160

140

in the US, but needs policy 120

support (typically RPS) in others

Whether wind is 2005

$/M

Wh 100

80

60

competitive in 40 long-term absent policy support 20

depends on cost 0

of fossil fuels

Average Price of Wind Power Without PTC

Operating Cost of Natural Gas Combustion Turbine

Average Price of Wind Power With PTC

Operating Cost of Natural Wholesale Price Range Gas Combined Cycle for Flat Block of Power

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Electricity Markets and Policy Group • Energy Analysis Department 53

•

ll ~ Berl~eley Lab ' ·I 1-13133·13-133551 hi■-■ 09¥-1+1-P.S--■ -F

~ Office of Science

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

,

~

...

Distributed junction nano-solar cells * (Separation of electrons and hole creation and transport.)

* A. Heeger, et. al. Exciton

Diffusion Length

P3HT100 nm Absorption

Depth

n

Polymer

ITO

e-h+

Al

20 nm

S

Absorption

Charge Transfer

Charge Transport

Exciton Diffusion

CdSe Nanorods

Cellulotome

Enzymatic subunit .... .,.

....-t-Doderin Interaction

,,....-.-CahHin

CBM-t;eNulo,e ~~~~~- Interaction

Cellulosomes can be designed with complementary enzymes to form a single multi-enzyme complex. Cellulose hydrolysis rates were shown to be 2.7- to 4.7-fold higher compared with

purified enzyme preparations.