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The Energy Challenge
With Thanks to Dr. Steve Koonin, BP for energy charts
Farrokh NajmabadiProf. of Electrical EngineeringDirector of Center for Energy ResearchUC San Diego
September 26, 2007
Energy and Well Being
With industrialization of emerging nations, energy use is expected to grow ~ 4 fold in this century (average 1.6% annual growth rate)
With industrialization of emerging nations, energy use is expected to grow ~ 4 fold in this century (average 1.6% annual growth rate)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)
Prim
ary
Ener
gy p
er c
api
ta (G
J)
US
Australia
Russia
BrazilChina
India
S. Korea
Mexico
Ireland
Greece
France
UKJapan
Malaysia
Energy use increases with Economic Development
Quality of Life is strongly correlated to energy use. HDI: (index reflecting life expectancy at birth + adult literacy & school enrolment + GNP (PPP) per capita)
There is a large disparity in energy use
Worldwide Average power consumption per person = 2,350 Watts
Use is very unevenly distributed
USA - 10,500 Watts
California - 7,300 Watts
UK - 5,200 Watts
China - 1,650 Watts (growing 10% pa)
India - 700 Watts
Bangladesh - 210 Watts
Worldwide Average power consumption per person = 2,350 Watts
Use is very unevenly distributed
USA - 10,500 Watts
California - 7,300 Watts
UK - 5,200 Watts
China - 1,650 Watts (growing 10% pa)
India - 700 Watts
Bangladesh - 210 Watts
1.6 billion people (over 25% of the world’s population) lack electricity:
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
Distances travelled to collect fuelwood in rural Tanzania; the average load is around 20 kg
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
Deaths per year (1000s) caused by indoor air pollution (biomass 85% + coal 15%); total is 1.5 million – over half children under five
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
Annual deaths worldwide from various causes
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
Quality of Life is strongly correlated to energy use.
Typical goals: HDI of 0.9 at 3 toe/cap for developing countries. For all developing countries to reach this point, would need world energy
use to double with today’s population, or increase 2.6 fold with the 8.1 billion expected in 2030.
Typical goals: HDI of 0.9 at 3 toe/cap for developing countries. For all developing countries to reach this point, would need world energy
use to double with today’s population, or increase 2.6 fold with the 8.1 billion expected in 2030.
HDI: (index reflecting life expectancy at birth + adult literacy & school enrolment + GNP (PPP) per capita)
World Primary Energy Demand is expect to grow substantially
Wor
ld E
nerg
y D
eman
d (M
toe)
Data from IAE World Energy Outlook 2006 Reference (Red) and Alternative (Blue) scenarios.
World population is projected to grow from 6.4B (2004) to 8.1B (2030). Scenarios are very sensitive to assumption about China.
Data from IAE World Energy Outlook 2006 Reference (Red) and Alternative (Blue) scenarios.
World population is projected to grow from 6.4B (2004) to 8.1B (2030). Scenarios are very sensitive to assumption about China.
Energy supply will be dominated by fossil fuels for the foreseeable future
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1980 2004 2010 2015 2030
MtoeOtherRenewables
Biomass &waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
’04 – ’30 Annual Growth
Rate (%)
Total
6.5
1.3
2.0
0.7
2.0
1.3
1.8
1.6
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 (Reference Case), Business as Usual (BAU) case
Some groups claim that we are running out of fossil fuels.
IEA study indicates that we are not running out of fossil fuels in the short term
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Oil Gas Coal
R/P Ratio 41 yrs.
R/P Ratio 67 yrs.
R/P Ratio 164 yrs.
Proven Proven
ProvenYet to Find
Yet to Find
Yet to Find
Unconventional
Unconventional
Reserv
es &
Resou
rces (
bn
boe)
Short term issue is the distribution of fossil fuels, i.e., Energy Security. Long term issue is availability of liquid fuels for transportation.
Short term issue is the distribution of fossil fuels, i.e., Energy Security. Long term issue is availability of liquid fuels for transportation.
Energy Security- World-wide Oil Flow
Energy security – natural gasGlobal LNG flows
California and Baja California becoming major importer of LNG
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is rising due to fossil fuel use
The global temperature is increasing
There is a plausible causal connection between CO2 concentration and global temperature (global warming) But this is a ~1% effect in a complex, noisy system Scientific case is complicated by natural variability, ill-understood
non-linear behavior, etc.
The global temperature is increasing
There is a plausible causal connection between CO2 concentration and global temperature (global warming) But this is a ~1% effect in a complex, noisy system Scientific case is complicated by natural variability, ill-understood
non-linear behavior, etc.
Global Warming: The Earth is getting warmer.
Green bars show 95% confidence intervals
J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 (26 Sept 2006)
CO2 concentration will grow geometrically!
The earth absorbs anthropogenic CO2 at a limited rate The lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is ~ 1000 years The atmosphere will accumulate emissions during the 21st Century
Impact of higher CO2 concentrations is uncertain ~ 2X pre-industrial is a widely discussed stabilization target (550 ppm) Reached by 2050 under IEA Reference Scenario shown.
To stabilize CO2 concentration at 550 ppm, emissions would have to drop to about half of their current value by the end of this century This in the face of a five fold increase of energy demand in the next 100
years (1.6% per year emissions growth) Modest emissions reductions only delay the growth of concentration (20%
emissions reduction buys 15 years).
The earth absorbs anthropogenic CO2 at a limited rate The lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is ~ 1000 years The atmosphere will accumulate emissions during the 21st Century
Impact of higher CO2 concentrations is uncertain ~ 2X pre-industrial is a widely discussed stabilization target (550 ppm) Reached by 2050 under IEA Reference Scenario shown.
To stabilize CO2 concentration at 550 ppm, emissions would have to drop to about half of their current value by the end of this century This in the face of a five fold increase of energy demand in the next 100
years (1.6% per year emissions growth) Modest emissions reductions only delay the growth of concentration (20%
emissions reduction buys 15 years).
Reducing emissions is an enormous, complex challenge; technology development must play the central role.
Reducing emissions is an enormous, complex challenge; technology development must play the central role.
U.S. Annual Energy Use By Sectors
U.S. Annual CO2 Emission from the Energy Consumption
Many sources contribute to the emission of greenhouse gases
It is more important to consider Emissions instead of Energy end-use.It is more important to consider Emissions instead of Energy end-use.
Technologies to meet the energy challenge do not exist
Improved efficiency and Conservation Huge scope but demand has always risen faster due to long turn-over
time.
Renewables (will be discussed in follow-up lectures) Intermittency, cost, environmental impact.
Carbon sequestration Requires handling large amounts of C (Emissions to 2050 =2000Gt
CO2)
Fission (will be discussed in follow-up lectures) fuel cycle and waste disposal
Fusion (will be discussed in follow-up lectures) Probably a large contributor in the 2nd half of the century
Improved efficiency and Conservation Huge scope but demand has always risen faster due to long turn-over
time.
Renewables (will be discussed in follow-up lectures) Intermittency, cost, environmental impact.
Carbon sequestration Requires handling large amounts of C (Emissions to 2050 =2000Gt
CO2)
Fission (will be discussed in follow-up lectures) fuel cycle and waste disposal
Fusion (will be discussed in follow-up lectures) Probably a large contributor in the 2nd half of the century
In Summary, …
In a CO2 constrained world uncertainty abounds
No carbon-neutral commercial energy technology is available today. Carbon sequestration is the determining factor for fossil fuel electric
generation. A large investment in energy R&D is needed. A shift to a hydrogen economy or carbon-neutral syn-fuels is also
needed to allow continued use of liquid fuels for transportation. Problem cannot be solved by legislation or subsidy. We need technical
solutions. Technical Communities should be involved or considerable public resources
would be wasted
The size of energy market ($1T annual sale, TW of power) is huge. Solutions should fit this size market 100 Nuclear plants = 20% of electricity production $50B annual R&D represents 5% of energy sale
No carbon-neutral commercial energy technology is available today. Carbon sequestration is the determining factor for fossil fuel electric
generation. A large investment in energy R&D is needed. A shift to a hydrogen economy or carbon-neutral syn-fuels is also
needed to allow continued use of liquid fuels for transportation. Problem cannot be solved by legislation or subsidy. We need technical
solutions. Technical Communities should be involved or considerable public resources
would be wasted
The size of energy market ($1T annual sale, TW of power) is huge. Solutions should fit this size market 100 Nuclear plants = 20% of electricity production $50B annual R&D represents 5% of energy sale
Thank you!Any Questions?