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The Economic BriefingFebruary 24, 2016
Mississippi University Research CenterMississippi Institutions of Higher Learning
Darrin Webb, State [email protected]
(601)432‐6556
To subscribe to our publications, email Janna Taylor at [email protected] our website for state and county level economic data www.mississippi.edu/urc
Follow URC on Twitter @MississippiURC
US Jobs Added By Month
MS University Research Center, IHL 2February 2016
22,500
(4,167
)
(177
,000
)
288,16
7
323,33
3
208,50
0
158,50
0
262,75
0
270,16
7
161,91
7
25,917
(69,58
3)
97,583
234,66
7
321,00
0
179,83
3
235,41
7
283,91
7
253,91
7
264,91
7
162,58
3
(143
,833
)
(41,66
7)
9,41
7
170,16
7
209,50
0
174,33
3
95,583
(297
,417
)
(422
,500
)
88,833
173,91
7
179,08
3
192,58
3
251,25
0
227,91
7
(500,000)
(400,000)
(300,000)
(200,000)
(100,000)
‐
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,0001980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Average Mon
thly Gain By
Year
Job Growth has improved in recent years & ended 2015 on a relatively strong note, but the January report was weak
187,00
0
168,00
0
272,00
0
310,00
0
213,00
0
306,00
0
232,00
0
218,00
0 286,00
0
200,00
0
331,00
0
292,00
0
221,00
0
265,00
0
84,000
251,00
0
273,00
0
228,00
0
277,00
0
150,00
0
149,00
0
295,00
0
280,00
0
262,00
0
151,00
0
‐ 50,000
100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Jan‐14
Feb‐14
Mar‐14
Apr‐14
May‐14
Jun‐14
Jul‐1
4
Aug‐14
Sep‐14
Oct‐14
Nov‐14
Dec‐14
Jan‐15
Feb‐15
Mar‐15
Apr‐15
May‐15
Jun‐15
Jul‐1
5
Aug‐15
Sep‐15
Oct‐15
Nov‐15
Dec‐15
Jan‐16
US Employment Cost IndexWage and Salaries for All Civilian WorkersGrowth Over The Prior Year by Quarter
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Mar‐01
Mar‐02
Mar‐03
Mar‐04
Mar‐05
Mar‐06
Mar‐07
Mar‐08
Mar‐09
Mar‐10
Mar‐11
Mar‐12
Mar‐13
Mar‐14
Mar‐15
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 3
Despite gains in 2014 and 2015 we continue to have below “normal” wage growth.
Institute For Supply Management IndicesAn Index above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 a contraction
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Jan‐12
Jan‐13
Jan‐14
Jan‐15
Jan‐16
ISM Indices: abo
ve 50 is expand
ing
Manufacturing Index Nonmanufacturing Index
MS University Research Center, IHL 4February 2016
The MFG Index was 48.2 in January, the lowest level since mid 2009. The Non‐MFG Index has declined for three straight months
and is the lowest in 2 years.
Land Rig CountBaker Hughes Rotary Rig Count
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Jan‐12
Jan‐13
Jan‐14
Jan‐15
Jan‐16
US MS
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 5
US MS
Oil Prices WTIWTI= West Texas Intermediate, Forecast is from IHS
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$1201990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Dollars Per Barrel
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 6
Oil prices are expected to rise gradually and are not expected to reach $100 per barrel until 2023.
Consumer and Business Sentiment
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15 Jan‐16
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 7
Both series weakened in 2015. The NFIB Index is at its weakest point since early 2014. Turmoil in the stock market is a factor in the decreased optimism. The weak January Jobs report is another.
Growth In Real US GDPHistorical and IHS Global Insight Baseline Projections
1.9%
‐0.1%
3.6%
2.7%
4.0%
2.7%
3.8%
4.5%
4.4% 4.7%
4.1%
1.0%
1.8%
2.8%
3.8%
3.3%
2.7%
1.8%
‐0.3%
‐2.8%
2.5%
1.6%
2.2%
1.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.4% 2.8%
‐4.0%
‐3.0%
‐2.0%
‐1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
MS University Research Center, IHL 8February 2016
Growth In Real MS GDPHistorical and University Research Center Projections
2.4%
5.6%
4.7%
6.1%
2.7%
2.0%
2.0% 2.4% 2.8%
0.5%
‐0.9%
0.9%
4.0%
2.2%
1.8%
2.7%
1.9%
0.9%
‐3.1%
1.4%
‐0.6%
2.3%
‐0.5% 0.0%
1.0%
1.9% 2.2%
‐4.0%
‐2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
MS University Research Center, IHL 9February 2016
With a downgrade in the National forecast, URC Projections fall slightly from that which was published in January. Previous forecast
for 2016 was 2.2%. The 2017 forecast did not change.
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13 Jan‐14 Jan‐15
Inde
x 20
04=
100
MS Index of Coincident Indicators
10MS University Research Center, IHLFebruary 2016
The MSCI showed tremendous upward momentum in 2015. This is largely due to a falling unemployment rate. Likewise the December
dip was largely due to a rising unemployment rate.
The Mississippi Index of Coincident Indicators reflects economic conditions existing in a given month. The index is constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and re‐indexed to 2004. The Index is based on changes in nonfarm employment, the unemployment rate, average manufacturing workweek length and wage and salary disbursements.
Unemployment Rate (2014Q4‐2015Q3 Average)
6.5% 6.0% 5.4%
0.6% 0.5%0.5%
0.9%0.7% 0.8%
4.3%4.1% 4.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
MS SE (Exc. MS) USU‐6: With All Marginally Attached Workers and Those Working Part‐Time for Economic Reasons
U‐5: With Discouraged workers and Other Marginally Attached Workers
U‐4: With Discouraged Workers
U‐3: Unemployment Rate
12.3%
10.8%11.4%
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 11
MS Unemployment Rates 4‐Qtr Moving Average
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2003:II –2004:I
2003:III –
2004:II
2003:IV
–2004:III
2004:II –2005:I
2004:III –
2005:II
2004:IV
–2005:III
2005:II –2006:I
2005:III –
2006:II
2005:IV
–2006:III
2006:II –2007:I
2006:III –
2007:II
2006:IV
–2007:III
2007:II –2008:I
2007:III –
2008:II
2007:IV
–2008:III
2008:II –2009:I
2008:III –
2009:II
2008:IV
–2009:III
2009:II –2010:I
2009:III –
2010:II
2009:IV
–2010:III
2010:II –2011:I
2010:III –
2011:II
2010:IV
–2011:III
2011:II –2012:I
2011:III –
2012:II
2011:IV
–2012:III
2012:II –2013:I
2012:III –
2013:II
2012:IV
–2013:III
2013:II –2014:I
2013:III –
2014:II
2013:IV
–2014:III
2014:II –2015:I
2014:III –
2015:II
2014:IV
–2015:III
Gap Between U‐6 and U‐3 U‐3 U‐4 U‐5 U‐6
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 12
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 13
Labor force Participation Rate by State November 2015
67.8%WI
56.1%KY
56.2%AL
56.3%MS
57.0%NM
58.0%AR
58.9%FL
58.9%TN
59.0%SC
59.7%AZ
59.8%LA
60.3%MI
60.9%NY
61.0%GA
61.1%NC
61.3%OR
61.9%OK
62.0%CA
62.0%ME
62.1%HI
62.4%OH
62.5%DE
62.6%PA
62.8%WA
63.4%NV
63.4%TX
63.7%IN
63.8%NJ
64.1%MT
64.2%ID
64.5%MA
64.7%RI
64.7%VA
64.8%IL
65.1%MO
65.6%CT
66.3%CO
66.7%VT
67.0%MD
67.2%AK
67.8%KS
53.0%WV
67.9%NH
67.9%WY
68.1%UT
69.3%SD
69.7%IA
69.7%ND
69.8%NE
69.9%MN
70.3%DC
50.0% < 60.0%60.0% ≤ 65.0%
> 65.0%
U.S. 62.5%
Labor force Participation RatePercentage of Civilian Population 16 Yrs. And Over in the Labor Force
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
US MS
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 14
Average Annual Growth in EmploymentAL
AL
AL
AL
AL AL AL
AL
AR
AR
AR
AR AR
AR
AR
AR
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL
FL FL
GA
GA
GA
GA GA
GA
GA
GA
KY
KY
KY
KY KY
KY
KY
KY
LA
LA
LA
LA
LA LA LA
LA
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS
MS MS
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC NC
NC
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
SC
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN
TN TNTX
TX
TX
TX
TX TX TX
TX
US
US
US
US
US
US US US
‐8.0%
‐6.0%
‐4.0%
‐2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 15
Generally speaking, Mississippi was not hit as hard in the recession as other states. However, the state’s recovery has been much slower.
Employment Relative to Pre‐RecessionDecember 2015 as a Percentage Above (Below) December 2007
24.6%
‐2.2%
‐2.9%
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
ND TX UT
DC CO WA AK SD MA NY
CA ID SC NE
TN IAMN GA OR FL KY OK
MD NC IN MT LA DE HI VA VT KS AR MI
NH PA WI
OH RI AZ CT NJ
MO
ME
WV IL
WY
MS
NM AL NV
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 16
MS is one of 13 states where the December 2015 employment was below that of December 2007. States rank from a high of 24.6% above to a low
of 2.9 below. MS is 2.2% below.
Wage And Salary Growth, 2010‐2014 Adjusted for Inflation
49.9%
16.2%
13.3%
12.5%
12.2%
12.1%
11.6%
10.4%
9.2%
9.0%
9.0%
9.0%
8.2%
8.1%
8.1%
8.1%
8.0%
7.7%
7.6%
7.5%
7.4%
7.3%
7.1%
6.9%
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.5%
6.5%
6.1%
5.8%
5.8%
5.7%
5.5%
5.4%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
4.5%
4.4%
4.0%
3.8%
2.8%
2.6%
2.5%
2.0%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.4%
1.0%
0.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
ND TX WA UT
CO CA OK
OR SD MI
MT
MA
MN FL GA IA US AZ TN OH SC WY ID NC
NH NY
NE IN DE WI
KS AL HI IL NV LA PA RI VT KY MO AR DC CT MD NJ
ME
MS
WV AL VA NM
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 17
Average growth for the US was 8.0%. MS growth was 1.7%, which ranks us 5th from the bottom,
MS was ahead of WV, AL, VA, and NM.
MS Wages and Salaries by Sector2000‐2014
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
Billion
s of 2004 $
Government
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Manufacturing
Education & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Construction
Financial & Related Activities
Other Services
Natural Resources
Information
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 18
Government Dependence, 2014Income from Transfer Payments and Government Earnings as a share of Total Personal Income
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
WV
MS KY AR NM ME AL SC MI
TN VT OR AZ RI FL NC
OH IN MO DE PA LA MT ID OK
GA NY
WI
US IA NV AK HI
MN
WA KS IL CA SD MA
NH TX NE NJ
MD UT
VA CT CO ND
WY
Transfer Payments Government Earnings
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 19
MS Index of Leading Indicators
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Inde
x 20
04=
100
20MS University Research Center, IHL
The MSLI showed very little upward momentum in late 2015.
February 2016
The Mississippi Index of Leading Indicators reflects economic conditions expected for the coming months. The index is constructed by the University Research Center and indexed to 2004. There are 7 components of the Index: MS Initial Unemployment Claims; MS Income Tax Withholdings; MS Value of Residential Building Permits; MS MFG Employment Intensity Index, ISM Index of US MFG Activity; US Consumer Expectations Index and US Retail Sales.
MS Nonfarm Employment
MS University Research Center, IHL 21
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
Thou
san
ds
Despite growing since 2010, employment remains almost 27 thousand jobs below the pre‐recession peak. Annual Job growth has been fairly stable between 0.7% and 0.9% for the past four years.
1,135.0 Dec 15
1,161.8 Feb 08
February 2016
1,084.2 Jan 10
Where are the Jobs?Mississippi added an average 10,075 jobs in 2015 over 2014
‐2,483
‐675
‐142
150
817
1,483
1,683
1,742
1,983
2,300
3,217
‐4,000 ‐3,000 ‐2,000 ‐1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Construction
Mining & Logging
Other Services
Information
Financial Activities
Government
Manufacturing
Education & Health Services
Professional & Business Activities
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Leisure & Hospitality
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 22
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 23
2,700De Soto
-1,210Madison
-1,010Jackson
-670Lauderdale-490
Warren
-480Tunica
-340Harrison
-230Washington
-160Sunflower
-150Hancock
-140Winston
-130Monroe
-120Chickasaw
-100Jones
-80Adams
-80Wayne
-70Bolivar
-70Leake
-70Marshall
-60Attala
-60Coahoma
-60Humphreys
-50Claiborne
-50Clay
-50Kemper
-40Quitman
-40Wilkinson
-30
Jefferson Davis
-30Pearl River
-20Jasper
-20Webster
-10
Lawrence
-10Lincoln
-10Oktibbeha
0Calhoun
0Newton
0Tippah
10Choctaw
10Franklin
10Issaquena
20Covington
20Jefferson
20Lamar
20Leflore
20Sharkey
40Amite
40Carroll
40Holmes
50Montgomery
50Noxubee
50Smith
50Stone
60Lowndes
60Tate
70
Walthall
80Greene
80Yalobusha
90Benton
100Grenada
100Perry
100Tallahatchie
120Marion
120Pike
130Prentiss
130Tishomingo
140Copiah
140Panola
150Neshoba
180Clarke180
Simpson
200Yazoo
230Itawamba
230Union
260Pontotoc
270Forrest
290Scott
300George
310Lee
320Alcorn
670Lafayette
1,140Rankin
1,980Hinds
Decline (33 Counties)Less than 150 Jobs Gained (33 Counties)150 or more Jobs Gained (16 Counties)
Mississippi Added 10,075 (0.9%)
Employment Gained (Lost) By County, 2014‐2015
MS Manufacturing Employment and Hours Worked
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0Jan‐90
Jan‐91
Jan‐92
Jan‐93
Jan‐94
Jan‐95
Jan‐96
Jan‐97
Jan‐98
Jan‐99
Jan‐00
Jan‐01
Jan‐02
Jan‐03
Jan‐04
Jan‐05
Jan‐06
Jan‐07
Jan‐08
Jan‐09
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
Jan‐12
Jan‐13
Jan‐14
Jan‐15
Hou
rs W
orked, 3Mon
th M
oving Av
erage
Employmen
t, Thou
sand
s
WW Length Employment
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 24
MS MFG has proven to be fairly resilient in recent years. After years of decline, employment
increased in 2014 and 2015. Hours worked have been at a relatively high level as well. We are however beginning to feel the US slowdown.
Inflation Adjusted Average Hourly Manufacturing Earnings in Mississippi
$11.00
$11.50
$12.00
$12.50
$13.00
$13.50
$14.00
$14.50
$15.00Mar‐05
Jun‐05
Sep‐05
Dec‐05
Mar‐06
Jun‐06
Sep‐06
Dec‐06
Mar‐07
Jun‐07
Sep‐07
Dec‐07
Mar‐08
Jun‐08
Sep‐08
Dec‐08
Mar‐09
Jun‐09
Sep‐09
Dec‐09
Mar‐10
Jun‐10
Sep‐10
Dec‐10
Mar‐11
Jun‐11
Sep‐11
Dec‐11
Mar‐12
Jun‐12
Sep‐12
Dec‐12
Mar‐13
Jun‐13
Sep‐13
Dec‐13
Mar‐14
Jun‐14
Sep‐14
Dec‐14
Mar‐15
Jun‐15
Sep‐15
Dec‐15
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 25
MS Residential Building PermitsThree Month Moving Average Number of Units
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
20
220
420
620
820
1020
1220
1420
1620
1820
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
Em
plo
ymen
t (0
00
)
Per
mit
s
Annual Average 3 Month Moving Avg. Construction Emp
26MS University Research Center, IHLFebruary 2016
We finally began to see some upward momentum in 2015. Annual average for 2015 was 565 Units, the highest since 2008.
Graph may understate improvement as permits are not required in the county.
MS Gaming Revenue
‐15.0%
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,50019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Line
Graph
: Ann
ual %
CHG
Bar G
raph
: Millions of D
ollars
Coast River Total % CHG Total
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 27
Unemployment ClaimsThree Month Moving Average
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000Ja
n-00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13
Jan-
14
Jan-
15
Con
tin
ued
Un
emp
loym
ent
Cla
ims
Init
ial U
nem
plo
ymen
t C
laim
s
Initial Claims Continued Claims
28MS University Research Center, IHLFebruary 2016
Year‐Over‐Year Growth in Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments: Mississippi
by Quarter
‐8%
‐6%
‐4%
‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 29
Gray Areas Represent National Recessions.
Declines are characteristic of recessions. The series showed weakness in 2013 and 2014, but has been
positive for four consecutive quarters.
MS Withholdings Y/Y Growth By QTR (Not Adjusted for Inflation)
‐6%
‐4%
‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Mar‐07 Mar‐08 Mar‐09 Mar‐10 Mar‐11 Mar‐12 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Mar‐15
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 30
MS Sales Tax Transfers to the GFY/Y Growth By QTR (Not Adjusted for Inflation)
‐15%
‐10%
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Mar‐07 Mar‐08 Mar‐09 Mar‐10 Mar‐11 Mar‐12 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Mar‐15
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 31
Economic Outlook of Key Indicators
Indicator 2014 2015 2016 2017MS Real GDP 0.0% 1.0% 1.9% 2.2%
US Real GDP 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.8%
MS Employment (Est. Based) 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9%
US Employment (Est. Based) 1.9% 2.1% 1.7% 1.3%
MS Real Total Personal Income 1.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2%
US Real Total Personal Income 3.0% 4.2% 3.1% 3.1%
February 2016 MS University Research Center, IHL 32