The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC)The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC)Steve Koch, NOAA/FSLSteve Koch, NOAA/FSL

A facility where the NWP research and operational communities A facility where the NWP research and operational communities interact to accelerate testing and evaluation of new models and interact to accelerate testing and evaluation of new models and

techniques for research applications and operational techniques for research applications and operational implementation, without interfering with current operations implementation, without interfering with current operations

Unidata presentation

7 February 2005

DTC Accomplishments since April 2003

Strong working relationship between central DTC partners (FSL and NCAR), NCEP, and AFWA

Completed the basic WRF Reference Code (including NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) and NCAR Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamic cores)

Ported NCEP Post and Verification codes and the NMM to iJet (also transferred to NCAR, NCEP, & AFWA computers) for use in the Test Plan work

SI able to initialize NMM WRF (joint EMC/FSL effort)

Visiting scientist program initiated in summer 2004

Completed WRF Test Plan: WRF EM core implemented at EMC as part of Initial Operating Capability

Strong working relationship between central DTC partners (FSL and NCAR), NCEP, and AFWA

Completed the basic WRF Reference Code (including NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) and NCAR Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamic cores)

Ported NCEP Post and Verification codes and the NMM to iJet (also transferred to NCAR, NCEP, & AFWA computers) for use in the Test Plan work

SI able to initialize NMM WRF (joint EMC/FSL effort)

Visiting scientist program initiated in summer 2004

Completed WRF Test Plan: WRF EM core implemented at EMC as part of Initial Operating Capability

DTC demonstrated the capabilities of the candidate dynamical cores to qualify them for a 6-member WRF IOC ensemble system to run daily in High Resolution Window (HRW) domains:

= NCEP NMM + NCAR ARW dynamical WRF cores + NMM and ARW cores with switched physics packages+ Model variants using bred Initial / Boundary Conditions

Ensemble should improve accuracy over a single deterministic forecast and a measure of uncertainty

IOC implemented 21 Sept 2004, but with only 2 members (the two dynamical cores without physics swapping). Full 6-member ensemble is scheduled for May 2005 implementation at NCEP.

DTC demonstrated the capabilities of the candidate dynamical cores to qualify them for a 6-member WRF IOC ensemble system to run daily in High Resolution Window (HRW) domains:

= NCEP NMM + NCAR ARW dynamical WRF cores + NMM and ARW cores with switched physics packages+ Model variants using bred Initial / Boundary Conditions

Ensemble should improve accuracy over a single deterministic forecast and a measure of uncertainty

IOC implemented 21 Sept 2004, but with only 2 members (the two dynamical cores without physics swapping). Full 6-member ensemble is scheduled for May 2005 implementation at NCEP.

WRF Test Plan: Getting to the NCEP IOC

Two primary operational objectives:

1. Compare Eta-12 to WRF run at 5 km grid spacing with explicit convection (no CP scheme) over CONUS during a winter season

2. Expose forecasters to future WRF capabilities before WR-NAM

Two primary research objectives:1. Do encouraging 4-km BAMEX WRF runs (summer 03, 04)

provide forecast value during winter and for longer lead times (~48h) than in BAMEX?

2. Determine extent to which gravity waves, lake-effect snow, CAD, coastal fronts, etc. can be skillfully forecast

DWFE Core Objectives

DWFE WRF Model DomainDWFE WRF Model Domain

DWFE domain covers the Gulf of Mexico, Canadian cold air source, Gulf Stream, and upstream conditions

FSL and NCAR are running 2 different versions of WRF:2 different Dynamical Cores (NMM & ARW)2 different Physics Packages (NCEP & NCAR)

Explicit Convection (run without CP scheme)

Uses 38 levels, 5-km resolution

Initialized at 0000 UTC, forecasts out to 48 hours

Initial and boundary conditions from operational Eta:00 UTC Eta212 grids for both runsThese grids have a resolution of 40 km

FSL and NCAR are running 2 different versions of WRF:2 different Dynamical Cores (NMM & ARW)2 different Physics Packages (NCEP & NCAR)

Explicit Convection (run without CP scheme)

Uses 38 levels, 5-km resolution

Initialized at 0000 UTC, forecasts out to 48 hours

Initial and boundary conditions from operational Eta:00 UTC Eta212 grids for both runsThese grids have a resolution of 40 km

DWFE WRF Model Configuration

WRF is designed so that model configurations can be interchanged easily

WRF makes it easy to:

create new model componentsshare parameterizationsefficiently transfer research findings to operations

WRF is designed so that model configurations can be interchanged easily

WRF makes it easy to:

create new model componentsshare parameterizationsefficiently transfer research findings to operations

KF CP

Grell

BMJ

Explicit

NMM core

EM core

NCEP mixed

Kessler MP

Purdue-Lin

Ferrier MP

Etc…

PBL, etc

WRF is a modeling systemsystem, not a model

Run 1: ARW, NCAR Physics Suite NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM)

WSM 5-class microphysics No cumulus parameterization

Yong-Sei University (YSU) PBL Dudhia shortwave

RRTM longwave

Run 2: WRF-NMM, NCEP Physics Suite NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM)

Ferrier microphysics (as in Eta) No cumulus parameterization

Mellor-Yamada-Janjic 2.5 PBL (as in Eta) Eta (Lacis-Hansen shortwave)

Eta (Fels-Schwartzkopf longwave)

Run 1: ARW, NCAR Physics Suite NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM)

WSM 5-class microphysics No cumulus parameterization

Yong-Sei University (YSU) PBL Dudhia shortwave

RRTM longwave

Run 2: WRF-NMM, NCEP Physics Suite NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM)

Ferrier microphysics (as in Eta) No cumulus parameterization

Mellor-Yamada-Janjic 2.5 PBL (as in Eta) Eta (Lacis-Hansen shortwave)

Eta (Fels-Schwartzkopf longwave)

DWFE WRF Model Physics Suites

FX-Net and AWIPS (by 1400 UTC)

offers diagnostic flexibility and ability

to see full details

FX-Net and AWIPS (by 1400 UTC)

offers diagnostic flexibility and ability

to see full details

DTC web site (and to JOSS):DTC web site (and to JOSS):

DWFE Dissemination of Model Products

An Operational Introduction to the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Modeling

System

Gary Lackmann, NCSUWith contributions from

Michael Brennan, Stephen Jascourt, Steve Koch,

Jeff Waldstreicher, Kelly Mahoney, David Novak,

Wei Wang, WRF Tutorial Class & others 1

RFC 10-km analysis

5-km WRF explicit

5-km WRF BMJ

NWS-NCSU CSTAR VISITVIEW PRESENTATION

Forecaster Preparation for the DWFE

(1) Grid-to-Point precipitation tool: produced using the FSL Real-Time Verification System (RTVS), this verification tool takes model forecast values and interpolates them to hourly HADS gauge locations. Statistics are provided for whatever models, forecast period, and overall time period one chooses.

(2) VSDB web tool: forecast values are compared with surface and upper-air rawinsonde observations that are gathered by NCEP for performing their next model analysis. Statistics will also be available for Grid-to-Grid precipitation.

(3) Ebert-McBride Grid-to-Grid precipitation tool: an entity-based approach, which decomposes the total forecast error into such components as displacement, volume, and pattern error of Contiguous Rain Areas. Technique was applied by FSL to verification of mesoscale convective systems in IHOP.

(1) Grid-to-Point precipitation tool: produced using the FSL Real-Time Verification System (RTVS), this verification tool takes model forecast values and interpolates them to hourly HADS gauge locations. Statistics are provided for whatever models, forecast period, and overall time period one chooses.

(2) VSDB web tool: forecast values are compared with surface and upper-air rawinsonde observations that are gathered by NCEP for performing their next model analysis. Statistics will also be available for Grid-to-Grid precipitation.

(3) Ebert-McBride Grid-to-Grid precipitation tool: an entity-based approach, which decomposes the total forecast error into such components as displacement, volume, and pattern error of Contiguous Rain Areas. Technique was applied by FSL to verification of mesoscale convective systems in IHOP.

On this page will be links to these verification tools:

DWFE Verification Activities

RTVS precipitation verification of 6-h forecasts over the

entire DWFE domain

10 Jan - 2 Feb 2005

RTVS precipitation verification of 6-h forecasts over the

entire DWFE domain

10 Jan - 2 Feb 2005

Eta-12

WRF-NMM

WRF-ARW

http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/wrf/DWFE/station/index.html

Eta-12

WRF-NMM

WRF-ARW

http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/wrf/DWFE/station/index.html

RTVS precipitation verification of 24-h forecasts over the

entire DWFE domain

10 Jan - 2 Feb 2005

RTVS precipitation verification of 24-h forecasts over the

entire DWFE domain

10 Jan - 2 Feb 2005

DWFE uses the NCEP Verification System

DWFE uses the NCEP Verification System

We are archiving the 3-hourly output files from both the ARW and NMM runs on the NCAR MSS at full model resolution on a daily basis for use in future research studies.

We are archiving two types of output files for each model:1) wrfout files

NETCDF formatRaw model output on its native grid

2) post-processed files (meso.AWPDWFE)GRIB formatModel fields run through NCEP post processorPost processor interpolates raw output to constant pressure surfaces and then to a common horizontal grid

We are archiving the 3-hourly output files from both the ARW and NMM runs on the NCAR MSS at full model resolution on a daily basis for use in future research studies.

We are archiving two types of output files for each model:1) wrfout files

NETCDF formatRaw model output on its native grid

2) post-processed files (meso.AWPDWFE)GRIB formatModel fields run through NCEP post processorPost processor interpolates raw output to constant pressure surfaces and then to a common horizontal grid

Archival of DWFE Model Runs

Examples of Phenomena Forecast by DWFE WRF

Models

FSL is also making available on its FX-Net system the ability to display the 8-10 km High-Resolution Window (HRW) domain WRF model runs from NCEP

Lake Effect Snowbands:17 January 2005

KBUF 1835Z Base Reflectivity WRF-ARW 18h Forecast

Precipitation for 1800 UTC

1000-850 hPa Lapse RatesForecast by NMM at 1200 UTC

WRF-NMM 18h ForecastPrecipitation for 1800 UTC

Narrow Reflectivity Bands:23 January 2005

0600 UTC Radar Mosaic

ARW 3-h forecast Composite Reflectivity

Lake-effect snowbands

Lake-effect snowbands

Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband

Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband

Topographically forced Snowbands in Blizzard of

23 January 2005

Total Snow Accumulation

Hudson Valley CT River Valley

WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F24

WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F27

988

WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F30

982

STMAS 5-km Surface Mesoanalysis for 0300 UTC

995

Curiosities:Potential Vorticity

Streamers Downwind of Mountain Peaks

2 February 2005

700 hPa Vertical Vorticity from 12h WRF-NMM Forecast

Curiosities:Reflectivity Structures in

Marine Boundary Layer23 January 2005

Cloud Streets

Mesoscale Cellular Convection

Marine Stratus

Curiosities:Diabatically-generated

Mesovortex over Lake Erie22 January 2005

STMAS Analysis for 1900 UTC 22Jan05

ARW-5 18h Forecast for 1800 UTC 22Jan05

Eta-12 18h Forecast for 1800 UTC 22Jan05

Concluding Statements

The DTC is producing a very large set of valuable and accessible high-resolution model data for numerical modeling and

mesoscale process research studies.

The DTC is creating a unique and powerful infrastructure for the research community to participate in the testing

and evaluation of contributed model codes with the potential to lead to future

operational improvements.