© 2016 Ipsos

Dr. Darrell Bricker, Chief Executive Officer,

Ipsos Global Public Affairs

Death of

Polling?

The

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Ipsos has carried out election polling in c30 countries since 2007

There’s a global conversation going on about polling

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ABOUT POLITICAL AND ELECTIONS RESEARCH

Issues and Services

• Voting intention • Likelihood of voting • Satisfaction with Government and party leaders • The most important issues facing the country • Economic optimism

The kinds of political issues we cover include:

The research services we provide include:

• Campaign polling for candidates/parties • Leaders and political parties positioning analysis • Impact assessments of advertising campaigns

(pre and post testing, including the impact of television debates) • Pre-election surveys • Exit polling • Post election surveys

(including analysis of voting flows, profile of voters by party)

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POLITICAL AND ELECTIONS RESEARCH

Our Media Relationships

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Industry Image

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What Media Says INDUSTRY IMAGE

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What Pollsters Say INDUSTRY IMAGE

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The Truth INDUSTRY IMAGE

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INDUSTRY RECORD REASONABLY GOOD…

Average candidate error in US Presidential Elections (INDIV CAND SHARE)

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CANADA FEDERAL ELECTION – OCTOBER 2015

Ipsos Final Poll vs. Actual Election Results—National

IPSOS FINAL POLL ELECTION RESULTS

38% 40%

31% 32%

22% 20%

4% 5%

4% 4% Base: Final Call Poll (Decided Voters, Leaners Included n=2,226; Online n=1,328; CATI n=898) Weighting: 50/50 telephone/online, education, region, thumb

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POLITICAL POLLING ACTIVITIES

Peruvian Presidential Elections

48.6 49.8

47.4 46.9

50.4 50.4 50.5 50.1 51.4 50.2

52.6 53.1

49.6 49.6 49.5

49.9

May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 Jun 4 EXIT POLL

QUICK COUNT

ONPE 99.6% (Official)

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski Keiko Jujimori

Election Dates: April 10 and June 5, 2016 Activities: Pre-election polls, exit and quick count polls

Methodology: Face-to-Face [F2F] Details here and here

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POLITICAL POLLING ACTIVITIES

Dutch Referendum Referendum Date: April 6, 2016 Activities: Pre-election and Exit Polls Media Partners: NOS (the National Broadcasting Company) Methodology: F2F The Dutch referendum was held on an EU agreement for closer relations with Ukraine, after 427,000 people backed a citizens’ petition of ‘GeenPeil’. Read full details here and here

IPSOS EXIT POLL

ACTUAL OUTCOME

Turnout 32% 32%

Voted Against The Agreement 64% 62%

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POLITICAL POLLING ACTIVITIES

Irish General Election Election Date: February 26, 2016 Activities: Pre-election and Exit Polls Media Partners: The Irish Times Methodology: F2F For the third General Election in a row, Ipsos MRBI published the most accurate pre-election polls in the country. Details here

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POLITICAL POLLING ACTIVITIES

Polish Presidential Election

Election Date: May 24, 2015 Activities: Exit Polls, Voter Turnout Media Partners: • Telewizja Polska • TVN 24 • Polsat News Details here

IPSOS PRE-ELECTION POLL

ACTUAL OUTCOME

Duda Andrzej 52.0% 51.55%

Komorowski Bronisław 48.0% 48.5%

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POLITICAL POLLING ACTIVITIES

Greek General Election

Election Date: January 25 and September 20, 2015 Activities: Exit Polls Media Partners: MEGA Channel Methodology: PAPI Details here

IPSOS EXIT POLL ACTUAL OUTCOME

Syriza 36% - 38% 36.30%

Nea Dimokratia 26% - 28% 26.8%

IPSOS EXIT POLL ACTUAL OUTCOME

Syriza 33% - 35% 35.50%

Nea Dimokratia 28.5% - 30% 28.1%

© 2016 Ipsos

But…

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POLITICAL POLLING ACTIVITIES

British General Election Election Date: May 7, 2015 Activities: Pre-election Polling and Vote Intention, Exit Polls and Live Analyses Media Partners: BBC News / ITV News / Sky News Methodology: CATI Details here

IPSOS MORI SEAT

PROJECTION EXIT POLL ACTUAL

OUTCOME Conservative 316 331 Labour 239 232 Liberal Democrat 10 8 SNP 58 56 UKIP 2 1 Green 2 1 Plaid Cymru 4 3 Other 19 18

IPSOS MORI PRE-ELECTION POLL

ACTUAL OUTCOME

Conservative 36% 37.7% Labour 35% 31.1% Liberal Democrat 8% 8% UKIP 11% 12.9% Green 5% 3.8% Other 5% 6.4%

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POLITICAL POLLING ACTIVITIES

UK Referendum

Referendum Date: June 23, 2016 Activities: Pre-election Polling Methodology: F2F/CATI Final Poll Prediction: 52% Remain, 48% Leave. Actual: 51.9% Leave, 48.1% Remain. Read full details here

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Healthy skepticism not the death of polling.

Ipsos’s View

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Pollster all around the world are having to face up to hard questions

How do we achieve a representative sample?

How do we predict turnout accurately?

How do we ensure our polls are reported well and understood among the media, politicians and the public?

How do we avoid other biases, such as social desirability?

How do we make best use of the increasing range of methodologies open to us?

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…although our answers may be very different!

Societal/Cultural Context • Size/diversity of population. • Turnout levels/compulsory voting • Stable party system or new

insurgents? • Generational declines in party loyalty

Media expectations vs. budgets and levels of polling transparency?

Traditional face-to-face methods vs. new or mixed modes?

National polls vs. local/state-level polling?

Survey researchers or moving toward big data modelling?

And in any one country likely to be good and bad examples of each!

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Contacts

Darrell Bricker, PhD Chief Executive Officer, Ipsos Global Public Affairs darrell.bricker@Ipsos.com

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ABOUT IPSOS Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry. With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos employs more than 16,000 people and has the ability to conduct research programs in more than 100 countries. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is controlled and managed by research professionals. They have built a solid Group around a multi-specialist positioning – Media and advertising research; Marketing research; Client and employee relationship management; Opinion & social research; Mobile, Online, Offline data collection and delivery.

Ipsos is listed on Eurolist – NYSE – Euronext. The company is part of the SBF 120 and the Mid-60 index and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).

ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP

www.ipsos.com

GAME CHANGERS At Ipsos we are passionately curious about people, markets, brands and society. We deliver information and analysis that makes our complex world easier and faster to navigate and inspires our clients to make smarter decisions.

We believe that our work is important. Security, simplicity, speed and substance applies to everything we do.

Through specialisation, we offer our clients a unique depth of knowledge and expertise. Learning from different experiences gives us perspective and inspires us to boldly call things into question, to be creative.

By nurturing a culture of collaboration and curiosity, we attract the highest calibre of people who have the ability and desire to influence and shape the future.

“GAME CHANGERS” – our tagline – summarises our ambition.