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Bill Coleman
1 Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman
Inflec&on Points in Human History
Represent expediential increases in the quantity and quality of communication and rate of knowledge creation.
1. Invention of Language, based on the spoken word.
2. Invention of the Printing Press, based on the printed word.
3. Invention of the Cloud and build out of the Web!
… we are at the Inflection Point of the Web based on the commoditization of IT by the Cloud!
2 Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman
Landscape at the Inflec&on Point Disruptive Innovation has been the basis of IT evolution triggering
successive cycles starting every ten years since about 1960.
Each cycle formed a new Platform which provided at least an order of magnitude better value for customers and disintermediated those that precede them triggering the innovators dilemma for incumbents.
Emergence of the Cloud (Mega) Platform as a Utility will be the final disruptive innovation for IT
The Web (Mega) Platform, will be the basis of disruptive innovation.
The Web Platform will be the inflection point in human knowledge creation and communication which will transform all aspects of life.
Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman 3
The Informa,on Age Cycles of Innova,on: Mega-‐Pla9orms: The Cloud and The Web
“Predicting the future is pointless, but it is possible to identify trends that have significant effects.” Peter Drucker
Cycles of Innovation (See slides 5 & 13 for detail of the cycles) Are thirty years long One starts every 10 years Cycles include -‐year phases:
1) Invention, Boom and Bust 2) Buildout and Consolidation 3) Commoditization
The Information Age includes six cycles of innovation Cycles 1 – 3: The Three IT Platforms: 1960 – 2010 The (1) Semiconductor, (2)
Computer and(3) Network Cycles were the three Cycles of IT Evolution. Cycle 4: The Cloud (Mega) Platform: 1990 – 2020 The Inflection Point where
the Cloud emerges as the ITC “Utility Platform” which is itself disintermediated by the emergency of the Web Platform -‐ the new basis of disruptive innovation.
Cycles 4 – 6: The Three Web (Mega) Platform Cycles: 1990 – 2040 (4) Reach, (5) Straight-‐thru-‐Processing and (6) Transparency. Enabling the emergence of the “Pull” economy and of “Web Presence ” (the dashboard for life -‐ where physical meets virtual).
4 Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman
Semiconductors • Integrated circuit • Simple memory and logic chips ___________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers • Minicomputers • PCs • Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks • Hubs & Routers • Networking SW
___________
• Networking Companies
Semiconductors • Manufacturing Equipment • Chip design & test tools ______________ • Semiconductor Companies
Computers • Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets • MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________ • Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks • Client/Serve Applications • Dist Storage: SAN & NAS
______________ • Networking Companies
Semiconductors • Integrated circuit • Simple memory and logic chips ___________
• Semiconductors
Computers • Minicomputers • PCs • Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer Systems and Software
Networks • Hubs & Routers • Networking SW • Storage
___________
• Networking and Storage Systems and Software
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
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5 Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman
Semiconductors • Integrated circuit • Simple memory and logic chips ___________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers • Minicomputers • PCs • Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks • Hubs & Routers • Networking SW
___________
• Networking Companies
Reach • WWW • Distributed Apps • Ecommerce
___________
• Internet Applications & Business Models
Straight –Thru-Processing
Transparency
Semiconductors • Manufacturing Equipment • Chip design & test tools ______________ • Semiconductor Companies
Computers • Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets • MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________ • Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks • Client/Serve Applications • Dist Storage: SAN & NAS
______________ • Networking Companies
Reach • Broadband • Search, SaaS • Web 2.0 - Social Networking - Dist Co-Creation ___________ Application & Infrastructure Software
Semiconductors • Integrated circuit • Simple memory and logic chips ___________
• Semiconductors
Computers • Minicomputers • PCs • Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer Systems and Software
Networks • Hubs & Routers • Networking SW
___________
• Networking and Storage Systems and Software
Reach • WWW • Distributed Apps • Web 2.0 - Personal Cyber Assistant
____________ • Internet Applications & Business Models
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
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Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman
What Is The Cloud? Its anywhere else but where you are:
Remote applications and/or data accessed over the net Services you consume Something you have used for many years: AOL, Email, Search and a ballooning set of applications and services
Delivered in three ways: “X”aaA – “X” as a Service Software Applications (SaaS): SalesForce.com, Google Search or Google Apps, Most Email...
Infrastructure (IaaS): Compute, Network and Storage metered by capacity consumed on demand; e.g. Amazon, Rackspace…
Platform (PaaS): IaaS plus proprietary software platform tools and services for application development; e.g. Microsoft, Google and SalesForce.com Cloud services
Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman 7
What Is Driving Cloud Today Cost savings “Free” Applications and Services Scalability on demand Software development Hosted mobile applications Web 2.0 collaboration and localization services Convergence of mobile and online Proliferation of new device types …and more, and more, and more!
Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman 8
The Cloud will be a Disrup&ve PlaAorm 1. Economic Value:
Provides an Order-‐of-‐Magnitude better value for customers which justifies their switching cost Motivates customer urgency and triggers the innovators dilemma for incumbents Example: The Personal Computer versus the Mini-‐Computer (e.g. DEC versus IBM PC and Clones) Counter example: IT Automation, incremental improvement, leaders absorbed by legacy providers.
2. Commoditization: As a new platform layer it sits on top of all its enabling platform layers, abstracting their capabilities
and isolating them from new value creation This disintermediation sets off a declining cost-‐driven price cycle which commoditizes suppliers Example: Microsoft’s victory over Apple illustrates this, although both met the other two properties,
only Microsoft disintermediated and commoditized the PC hardware platform.
3. Customization: Customization is the basis of value creation, adds value and provides stickiness Customization provides the “long tail” of added value that attracts more and more adaptors Example: Microsoft’s victory over Netscape in the Browser Wars
Platform Dynamics: Platforms generate a network effect of mass adoption, which in synergy with the long tail of
customizations proceeds in a positive feedback loop. Example: Microsoft’s victory in the PC Wars by becoming the platform for application deployment Virtualization: Meets none of the platform properties and therefore will be a feature like the browser did,
not a platform (e.g. When Hyper-‐V is embedded, free, “good enough” and transparent as device drivers)
9 Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman
The Cloud will be a U&lity
1. Isolation of supply & demand: Think AC versus DC Power Supply scales and prices drop, compete in an open, commodity market Isolation of ISO Level 7 from Levels 1 – 6 (which will ultimately include
application components)
2. Metered Billing Metering on the customer demand based on quantity and quality of service Customers metered on their usage, not on suppliers internal systems utilization
3. Customer Ownership and Control Customers owns their Intellectual Property: Applications (although some can
be leased or used as a service), Process, Workflow and Data. Customers control their usage (Policy Management) based on their desired
output of their application work flow.\
10 Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman
Evolu&on of The Cloud U&lity PlaAorm Cloud 1.0: 2000 – 2010, IaaS, PaaS, SaaS
Application Limitations: Generally proprietary green-‐field, web-‐facing, two-‐tier. Operational Limitations: External with limited security, reliability, audit, governance. E.g. Amazon (IaaS), Google (PaaS), Salesforce.com (SaaS) Neither a Platform nor a Utility (Discrete services)
Cloud 2.0: 2010 – 2020, The Cloud Platform Internal clouds become the standard for enterprises (Commoditized Infrastructure) Connectivity & mobility of applications and data between internal and/or external clouds CaaS: Client-‐as-‐a-‐Service, online and mobile worlds converge (Quadruple Convergence) Becomes a Platform but not a Utility!
Cloud 3.0: 2020 -‐ 2030, Cloud Utility -‐ Commoditization Final commoditization and consolidation of ICT as utility service providers emerge Consumer choice, control and ownership; service providers meet “Properties of a Utility” The end of IT as we know it – Everything As A Service! (Generic IP-‐based services) Both a Platform and a Utility
11 Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman
Issues for Cogni&ve Disabili&es Business models Fundability & Affordability Lack of standards Legal Privacy Security
Workshop Sessions Will Focus On These Issues
Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman 12
Semiconductors • Integrated circuit • Simple memory and logic chips ___________
• Semiconductor Companies
Computers • Minicomputers • PCs • Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks • Hubs & Routers • Networking SW
___________
• Networking Companies
Reach • WWW • Distributed Apps • Ecommerce
___________
• Internet Applications & Business Models
Straight –Thru-Processing • WOA/Mashups • Identity 1.0 • Cloud 1.0 ___________ • Web 3.0 Apps and “Pull” business models
Transparency • Associative data services • Quantum computing ___________ • Web 4.0: Web Presence (applications and business models)
Semiconductors • Manufacturing Equipment • Chip design & test tools ______________ • Semiconductor Companies
Computers • Software: DBMS Games, Word Processing & Spreadsheets • MSDOS: Binary Compatibility ______________ • Computer HW & SW Companies
Networks • Client/Serve Applications • Dist Storage: SAN & NAS
______________ • Networking Companies
Reach • Broadband • Search, SaaS • Web 2.0 - Social Networking - Dist Co-Creation ___________ • Application & Infrastructure Software
Straight –Thru-Processing • Web 3.0 “Pull” Internet Commerce • Identity 2.0 • Cloud 2.0
• ICT Industry Providers (Quad Convergence) • Search and Ad business models
Transparency • Web 4.0 “Web Presence” • Identity 3.0 • Self-forming “applications”
• Pull market economics consolidates the “Push” mass market economy
Semiconductors • Integrated circuit • Simple memory and logic chips ___________
• Semiconductors
Computers • Minicomputers • PCs • Servers (Unix Workstations) ___________
• Computer Systems and Software
Networks • Hubs & Routers • Networking SW
___________
• Networking and Storage Systems and Software
Reach • WWW • Distributed Apps • Web 2.0 - Personal Cyber Assistant
____________ • Internet Applications & Business Models
Straight –thru -Processing • WOA/Mashups • Identity 3.0 • Cloud 3.0 • Web 3.0 - Cyber Proxy ___________
• Web 3.0 Apps and “Push” business models
Transparency • Associative data services • Web 4.0 - Cyber Awareness - Physical & Virtual converge ___________ • Web 4.0: Web Presence (applications and business models)
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13 Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman
Life on the Web in 2040 Web Presence where virtual meets physical and our abilities
transcend our disabilities!
My Proxy: The self-‐aware proxy for life “My buddy, my alter-‐ego, my mentor and my guardian! A dashboard for life – my world under my control!
Identity provides security with privacy and civil liberties
The “Pull” Economy dramatically improves productivity moving most the world into the middle class!
So what comes next? The Dematerialization Age, where Bio meets Nano
Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman
15 Copyright © 2010 – Bill Coleman