THE CARIBSAVE CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ATLAS (CCCRA)

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Barbados West Indies

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Protecting and enhancing the livelihoods, environments and economies of the Caribbean Basin

Caribbean Climate Change & Livelihoods: A sectoral approach to vulnerability and resilience Water, Energy, Biodiversity, Tourism, Agriculture, Human Health, Infrastructure and Settlement, Gender, Comprehensive Disaster Management

A Not-For-Profit Company

THE CARIBSAVE CLIMATE CHANGE RISK

ATLAS (CCCRA)

Climate Change Risk Profile for Belize

Prepared by The CARIBSAVE Partnership with funding from UKaid from the Department for International Development (DFID) and the

Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID)

March 2012

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................................... V

LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................................VII

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS........................................................................................................................... X

PROJECT BACKGROUND AND APPROACH ............................................................................................... XI

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ............................................................................................. XIV

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ XVIII

1. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT ................................................................................................. 1

1.1. Climate change impacts on tourism ............................................................................................. 2

2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES ......................................................................................................... 4

2.1. Geography and climate ................................................................................................................. 4

2.2. Socio-economic profile ................................................................................................................. 5

2.3. Importance of tourism to the national economy ......................................................................... 8

3. CLIMATE MODELLING ................................................................................................................. 13

3.1. Introduction to Climate Modelling Results ................................................................................. 13

3.2. Temperature ............................................................................................................................... 14

3.3. Precipitation ................................................................................................................................ 15

3.4. Wind Speed ................................................................................................................................. 18

3.5. Relative Humidity ........................................................................................................................ 19

3.6. Sunshine Hours ........................................................................................................................... 21

3.7. Sea Surface Temperatures .......................................................................................................... 22

3.8. Temperature Extremes ............................................................................................................... 23

3.9. Rainfall Extremes ........................................................................................................................ 25

3.10. Hurricanes and Tropical Storms .............................................................................................. 27

3.11. Sea Level Rise ........................................................................................................................... 29

3.12. Storm Surge ............................................................................................................................. 30

4. VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS PROFILE FOR BELIZE ..................................................................... 31

4.1. Water Quality and Availability .................................................................................................... 31

4.1.1. Background .................................................................................................................... 31

4.1.2. Vulnerability of Water Availability and Quality Sector to Climate Change ................... 35

4.2. Energy Supply and Distribution ................................................................................................... 42

4.2.1. Background .................................................................................................................... 42

4.2.2. Belize .............................................................................................................................. 44

4.2.3. Vulnerability of the energy sector to climate change.................................................... 55

4.3. Agriculture and Food Security..................................................................................................... 63

4.3.1. Background .................................................................................................................... 63

4.3.2. The importance of agriculture to national development .............................................. 63

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4.3.3. An analysis of the agricultural sector in Belize .............................................................. 64

4.3.4. Women and youth in Belizean agriculture .................................................................... 64

4.3.5. Climate change related issues and agricultural vulnerability in Belize .......................... 65

4.3.6. Vulnerability enhancing factors: Agriculture, land use and soil degradation in Belize . 66

4.3.7. Social vulnerability of agricultural communities in Belize ............................................. 66

4.3.8. Economic Vulnerability: Climate change & agricultural outputs in Belize .................... 67

4.4. Human Health ............................................................................................................................. 69

4.4.1. Background .................................................................................................................... 69

4.4.2. Direct Impacts ................................................................................................................ 70

4.4.3. Indirect Impacts ............................................................................................................. 70

4.5. Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries ...................................................................... 76

4.5.1. Background .................................................................................................................... 76

4.5.2. Vulnerability of biodiversity and fisheries to climate change........................................ 84

4.6. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements ................ 90

4.6.1. Background .................................................................................................................... 90

4.6.2. Vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and settlements to climate change .................. 91

4.7. Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management ......................................................................... 98

4.7.1. History of disaster management globally ...................................................................... 98

4.7.2. Natural hazards in the Caribbean and Belize ................................................................. 99

4.7.3. Case study examination of vulnerability ...................................................................... 100

4.7.4. Vulnerability of the tourism industry in Belize ............................................................ 102

4.8. Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development .................................................. 104

4.8.1. Background .................................................................................................................. 104

4.8.2. Climate change vulnerability: Implications for community livelihoods, gender, poverty and development ...................................................................................................................... 106

4.8.3. Case Study: Placencia, Belize ....................................................................................... 109

5. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY PROFILE FOR BELIZE .................................................................................. 115

5.1. Water Quality and Availability .................................................................................................. 116

5.1.1. Policy ............................................................................................................................ 116

5.1.2. Management ................................................................................................................ 117

5.1.3. Technology ................................................................................................................... 118

5.2. Energy Supply and Distribution ................................................................................................. 119

5.2.1. Policy ............................................................................................................................ 119

5.2.2. Management ................................................................................................................ 120

5.2.3. Technology ................................................................................................................... 123

5.2.4. Summary ...................................................................................................................... 125

5.3. Agriculture and Food Security................................................................................................... 126

5.3.1. Policy ............................................................................................................................ 126

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5.3.2. Technology ................................................................................................................... 126

5.3.3. Farmers’ adaptation - Initiatives and actions .............................................................. 126

5.4. Human Health ........................................................................................................................... 128

5.4.1. Policy ............................................................................................................................ 128

5.4.2. Management ................................................................................................................ 129

5.5. Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries .................................................................... 133

5.5.1. Policy ............................................................................................................................ 133

5.5.2. Management ................................................................................................................ 134

5.5.3. Technology ................................................................................................................... 136

5.6. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements .............. 137

5.6.1. Technology – Hard engineering ................................................................................... 139

5.6.2. Technology – Soft engineering .................................................................................... 139

5.6.3. Policy ............................................................................................................................ 140

5.7. Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management ....................................................................... 142

5.7.1. Management of natural hazards and disasters ........................................................... 142

5.7.2. Management of disasters in Belize .............................................................................. 145

5.7.3. Technology ................................................................................................................... 147

5.7.4. Policy ............................................................................................................................ 148


5.8.1. Demographic profile of respondents ........................................................................... 151

5.8.2. Household form and structure .................................................................................... 152

5.8.3. Household headship .................................................................................................... 153

5.8.4. Education and livelihoods ............................................................................................ 154

5.8.5. Food security ................................................................................................................ 156

5.8.6. Financial security and social protection....................................................................... 156

5.8.7. Asset base .................................................................................................................... 159

5.8.8. Power and decision making ......................................................................................... 161

5.8.9. Social networks and social capital ............................................................................... 162

5.8.10. Use of natural resources ............................................................................................ 162

5.8.11. Knowledge, exposure and experience of climate related events .............................. 166

6. RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES AND INITIAL ACTION PLAN ........................................................... 172

6.1. Cross-Cutting Actions ................................................................................................................ 172

6.1.1. Implementing and Strengthening Data Collection, Monitoring and Evaluation Activities 172

6.1.2. Mainstreaming Climate Change in Planning, Policy and Practice ................................ 174

6.1.3. Building and Strengthening Information Sharing and Communication Systems and Networks ................................................................................................................................... 176

6.1.4. Climate Change Education and Awareness ................................................................. 177

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6.5. Human Health ........................................................................................................................... 180





7. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................ 187

7.1. Climate Modelling ..................................................................................................................... 187




7.5. Human Health ........................................................................................................................... 189





REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................................... 194

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.2.1: Sector contribution to GDP (%) .................................................................................................... 6

Figure 2.3.1: Arrivals and expenditure ............................................................................................................ 10

Figure 4.1.1: Belize Hydrological Regions ........................................................................................................ 32

Figure 4.1.2: Belize roads and major cities ...................................................................................................... 33

Figure 4.1.3: Schematic diagram of the Stakeholders in the Belize Water Sector .......................................... 34

Figure 4.2.1: Global CO2 emission pathways versus unrestricted tourism emissions growth. ....................... 43

Figure 4.2.2: Per capita emissions of CO2 in selected countries in the Caribbean, 2005 ................................ 44

Figure 4.2.3: Primary energy sources and final energy uses, 2002 ................................................................. 45

Figure 4.2.4: Distribution of electricity providers 2010................................................................................... 46

Figure 4.2.5: Crude oil prices 1869 - 2009 ....................................................................................................... 55

Figure 4.2.6: Fuel costs as part of a worldwide operating cost ....................................................................... 57

Figure 4.2.7: Vulnerability of selected countries, measured as eco-efficiency and revenue share ................ 59

Figure 4.3.1: Belize Key Crops.......................................................................................................................... 68

Figure 4.4.1: Seasonal variation of Dengue in Belize – 2002, 2005, 2007 ....................................................... 72

Figure 4.4.2: Seasonal variation of Dengue cases and rainfall in Belize .......................................................... 72

Figure 4.5.1: The Jaguar – Belize’s top forest predator ................................................................................... 77

Figure 4.5.2: Protected Areas of Belize ........................................................................................................... 78

Figure 4.5.3: Coastal and marine habitats of Belize ........................................................................................ 80

Figure 4.5.4: Photo of the beach at Placencia (Belize) in 2008 where active erosion is reported .................. 81

Figure 4.5.5: Map of sediment delivery to Meso-American Barrier Reef ....................................................... 82

Figure 4.5.6: Coastal defences in San Pedro (Belize) built to prevent further beach erosion ........................ 87

Figure 4.6.1: Belize - Overview Map ................................................................................................................ 91

Figure 4.6.2: Evidence of Erosion and SLR in Caye Caulker, Belize ................................................................. 92

Figure 4.6.3: Staff from the Hol Chan Marine Reserve learning how to use the High Resolution

Coastal Profile Surveying with an RTK GPS System. ................................................................. 94

Figure 4.6.4: Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR, Caye Caulker Village, Caye Caulker .............................. 95

Figure 4.6.5: Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR, Rocky Point, North Ambergris Caye ............................. 96

Figure 4.6.6: Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR, San Pedro Town, Ambergris Caye ................................ 96

Figure 4.7.1: Damaged housing from Hurricane Richard in Belize 2010 ....................................................... 101

Figure 4.7.2: Map of areas worst affected by Hurricane Richard ................................................................. 101

Figure 4.8.1: Individual Poverty in Belize, 2002 and 2009 ............................................................................ 105

Figure 4.8.2: The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty ............................................................................. 107

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Figure 5.2.1: Eco-efficiencies of different source markets, Amsterdam ....................................................... 122

Figure 5.7.1: Relationship of the Disaster Management System and Society .............................................. 142

Figure 5.8.1: Age of Respondents .................................................................................................................. 152

Figure 5.8.2: Relationship Status of Respondents ......................................................................................... 153

Figure 5.8.3: Sample Distribution by Average Monthly Earnings .................................................................. 155

Figure 5.8.4: Financial Security: Job Loss or Natural Disaster ....................................................................... 158

Figure 5.8.5: Perception of Risk for Climate Related Events ......................................................................... 170

Figure 5.8.6: Support during Climate Related Events ................................................................................... 171

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 2.2.1: Gross Domestic Product for Belize, 2002 - 2009 ........................................................................... 5

Table 2.2.2: Sector contribution to GDP at constant 2000 market prices (BZ $ million). ................................. 6

Table 2.3.1: Visitor Arrivals to Belize and expenditure 2000 - 2009 ............................................................... 10

Table 3.1.1: Earliest and latest years respectively at which the threshold temperatures are

exceeded in the 41 projections* .............................................................................................. 14

Table 3.2.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature for Belize. ............................................. 15

Table 3.2.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Belize under the A2 scenario. .......................................... 15

Table 3.3.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation for Belize. ............................................ 16

Table 3.3.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Belize under the A2 scenario. ........................................... 17

Table 3.3.3: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation (%) for Belize. ...................................... 17


Table 3.4.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in wind speed for Belize. ............................................... 19


Table 3.5.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in relative humidity for Belize. ...................................... 20


Table 3.6.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sunshine hours for Belize. ......................................... 22


Table 3.7.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sea surface temperature for Belize. ......................... 23

Table 3.8.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature extremes for Belize.............................. 24

Table 3.9.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in rainfall extremes for Belize. ...................................... 26

Table 3.10.1: Changes in Near-storm rainfall and wind intensity associated with Tropical storms

in under global warming scenarios. ......................................................................................... 29

Table 3.11.1: Sea level rise rates at observation stations surrounding the Caribbean Basin ......................... 29

Table 3.11.2: Projected increases in sea level rise from the IPCC AR4 ........................................................... 30

Table 4.1.1: Tariff Rates for Belize Water Services .......................................................................................... 35

Table 4.2.1: Total primary energy use, 2002 ................................................................................................... 45

Table 4.2.2: Growth trends in energy consumption in Belize, 1990 - 2009 .................................................... 47

Table 4.2.3: Growth trends in electricity consumption in Belize, 2001 - 2010 ............................................... 48

Table 4.2.4: Assessment of CO2 emissions from tourism in Belize, 2009........................................................ 49

Table 4.2.5: UK air passenger duty as of November 1, 2009 .......................................................................... 58

Table 4.3.1: Climate Change Impact on Agriculture & Fisheries Sector – Belize ............................................ 65

Table 4.3.2: Recent natural disasters and their impact on agriculture sector in Belize .................................. 67

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Table 4.3.3: Summary of damage and losses to agricultural sector by district following

Hurricane Dean ......................................................................................................................... 67

Table 4.4.1: Selected statistics relevant to the Health Sector of Belize .......................................................... 70

Table 4.4.2: Confirmed malaria confirmed and suspected cases in Belize between 2000 and

2009 .......................................................................................................................................... 71

Table 4.4.3: Dengue fever cases between 1995 and 2009 in Belize ............................................................... 73

Table 4.4.4: Fever and respiratory symptoms (acute respiratory infections) under and over 5

years and influenza-like illnesses between 2006 - 2009 in Belize ............................................ 74

Table 4.4.5: Reported cases of gastroenteritis in Belize between 1999 and 2009 ......................................... 74

Table 4.6.1: Impacts associated with 1 m and 2 m SLR and 50 m and 100 m beach erosion in

Belize ........................................................................................................................................ 93

Table 4.6.2: Beach Area Losses at Three Beach Areas in Belize ...................................................................... 97

Table 4.7.1: Types of Hazards in the Caribbean Basin ..................................................................................... 99

Table 4.8.1: Unemployment in Belize, 2002-2009 ........................................................................................ 104

Table 4.8.2: Examples of Gender Differences in Response to Natural Disasters in the Caribbean .............. 108

Table 4.8.3: Local resilience building initiatives for the natural and built environment ............................... 114

Table 5.2.1: Average weighted emissions per tourist by country and main market, 2004 .......................... 121

Table 5.2.2: Arrivals to emissions ratios ........................................................................................................ 121

Table 5.2.3: Jamaican case studies for resource savings............................................................................... 124

Table 5.4.1: NPESAP Strategic Thrusts and Strategies related to the health sector of Belize ...................... 128

Table 5.4.2: Total expenditure on health as a % of GDP from 1995 – 2009 in Belize ................................... 129

Table 5.4.3: Health facilities in Belize in 2007 ............................................................................................... 130

Table 5.5.1: Principles for Climate Change Adaptation ................................................................................. 133

Table 5.6.1: Summary of Adaptation Policies to reduce the vulnerability of Belize to SLR and

SLR induced beach erosion ..................................................................................................... 138

Table 5.7.1: Enhanced Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme Framework 2007-

2012 ........................................................................................................................................ 144

Table 5.8.1: Length of Residency in Community ........................................................................................... 151

Table 5.8.2: Age Distribution of Sample ........................................................................................................ 151

Table 5.8.3: Relationship Status of Respondents .......................................................................................... 152

Table 5.8.4: Perception of Headship of Household ....................................................................................... 153

Table 5.8.5: Household Headship by Gender .............................................................................................. 153

Table 5.8.6: Household Size by Sex of Head of Household ........................................................................... 154

Table 5.8.7: Sample Distribution by Education and Training ........................................................................ 154

Table 5.8.8: Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Tourism Sector .................................................. 155

Table 5.8.9: Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Non-Tourism Sectors ......................................... 156

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Table 5.8.10: Source of Food Supply ............................................................................................................. 156

Table 5.8.11: Adequacy of Food Supply ........................................................................................................ 156

Table 5.8.12: Distribution by Financial Responsibility for House (Receive support) ..................................... 157

Table 5.8.13: Distribution by Financial Responsibility for House (Give support) .......................................... 157

Table 5.8.14: Distribution by Access to Credit .............................................................................................. 157

Table 5.8.15: Sample Distribution by Financial Security: Job Loss ................................................................ 158

Table 5.8.16: Sample Distribution by Financial Security: Natural Disaster ................................................... 159

Table 5.8.17: Sample Distribution by Social Protection Provisions ............................................................... 159

Table 5.8.18: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Capital Assets .................................................. 160

Table 5.8.19: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Appliances / Electronics .................................. 160

Table 5.8.20: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Transportation ................................................ 161

Table 5.8.21: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: House Material ................................................ 161

Table 5.8.22: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Access to Sanitation Conveniences ................. 161

Table 5.8.23: Power and Decision Making .................................................................................................... 161

Table 5.8.24: Power and Decision Making: Intra Household ........................................................................ 162

Table 5.8.25: Social Networks: Community Involvement ............................................................................. 162

Table 5.8.26: Social Networks: Support Systems .......................................................................................... 162

Table 5.8.27: Use and Importance of Natural Resources .............................................................................. 164

Table 5.8.28: Use and Importance of Natural Resources, by Sex of Respondent ......................................... 165

Table 5.8.29: Involvement in Agriculture: Access to Water .......................................................................... 166

Table 5.8.30: Knowledge of Climate Related Events ..................................................................................... 166

Table 5.8.31: Knowledge of Appropriate Response to Climate Related Events ............................................ 167

Table 5.8.32: Perceived Level of Risk of Climate Related Events: Household ............................................... 168

Table 5.8.33: Perceived Level of Risk of Climate Related Events: Community ............................................. 169

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The CARIBSAVE Partnership wishes to thank all the people across Belize and in the Caribbean who have

contributed to this National Risk Profile and to the Risk Atlas as a whole. There have been a multitude of

people who have provided their time, assistance, information and resources to making the Risk Atlas

effective and successful, so many people that it makes it impossible to mention all of them here on this

page. We would, therefore, like to thank some of the key people and organisations here that have made

the Risk Atlas and this National Profile possible. The CARIBSAVE Partnership wishes to thank the Belize

Tourism Board for its support and assistance, in particular Ms. Seleni Matus, Director; as well as Mr. Yashin

Dujon of the Ministry of Tourism, Civil Aviation & Culture.

We wish to express great thanks the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, the Caribbean Tourism

Organisation and the Association of Caribbean States for their collaboration and support.

Additionally, we wish to thank the following institutions:

The Climate Studies Group, Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Mona Campus

The Meteorological Institute of the Republic of Cuba

The University of Waterloo

The Anton de Kom University of Suriname

The Institute for Gender and Development Studies, University of the West Indies, Mona Campus

The Health Research Resource Unit, Faculty of Medical Science, University of the West Indies,

Mona Campus

The Public Utilities Commission

The Placencia Tourism Center

The CARIBSAVE Partnership would also like to extend its thanks to the Oxford University Centre for the

Environment. Finally, last and by no means least, many thanks to the vision and commitment of the UK

Department for International Development (DFID) and the Australian Agency for International

Development (AusAID) for funding the CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas.

This publication is to be cited as follows:

Simpson, M. C., Clarke, J. F., Scott, D. J., New, M., Karmalkar, A., Day, O. J., Taylor, M., Gossling, S., Wilson,

M., Chadee, D., Stager, H., Waithe, R., Stewart, A., Georges, J., Hutchinson, N., Fields, N., Sim, R., Rutty, M.,

Matthews, L., Charles, S., and Agosta G’meiner, A. (2012). CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas (CCCRA) -

Belize. DFID, AusAID and The CARIBSAVE Partnership, Barbados, West Indies.

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PROJECT BACKGROUND AND APPROACH

Contribution to climate change knowledge and understanding

Climate change is a serious and substantial threat to the economies of Caribbean nations, the livelihoods of

communities and the environments and infrastructure across the region. The CARIBSAVE Climate Change

Risk Atlas (CCCRA) Phase I, funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID/UKaid) and

the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID), was conducted from 2009 – 2011 and

successfully used evidence-based, inter-sectoral approaches to examine climate change risks,

vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities; and develop pragmatic response strategies to reduce vulnerability

and enhance resilience in 15 countries across the Caribbean (Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, The Bahamas,

Barbados, Belize, Dominica, The Dominican Republic, Grenada, Jamaica, Nevis, Saint Lucia, St. Kitts, St.

Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname and the Turks & Caicos Islands).

The primary basis of the CCCRA work is the detailed climate modelling projections done for each country

under three scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. These scenarios effectively capture the range of likely emissions

and have therefore received the focus of attention by the modelling community. Consequently, most of the

discussion in the IPCC AR4 report is based on these scenarios, for which model data is available. Climate

models have demonstrable skill in reproducing the large scale characteristics of the global climate

dynamics; and a combination of multiple Global Climate Model (GCM) and downscaled Regional Climate

Model (RCM) projections was used in the investigation of climatic changes for all 15 countries. RCMs

simulate the climate at a finer spatial scale over a small area, like a country, acting to ‘downscale’ the GCM

projections and provide a better physical representation of the local climate of that area. As such, changes

in the dynamic climate processes at a national or community scale can be projected.

SRES storylines and scenario families used for calculating future greenhouse gas and other pollutant emissions

Storyline and scenario family

Description

A2 A very heterogeneous world; self reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously increasing global population; economic growth is regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are slower than in other storylines.

A1B The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis. A1B is balanced across all sources - not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies.

B1 A convergent world with the same global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.

(Source: Adapted from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2000)

The CCCRA provides robust and meaningful new work in the key sectors and focal areas of: Community

Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development; Agriculture and Food security; Energy; Water Quality and

Availability; Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements;

Comprehensive Disaster Management; Human Health; and Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and

Fisheries. This work was conducted through the lens of the tourism sector; the most significant socio-

economic sector to the livelihoods, national economies and environments of the Caribbean and its' people.

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The field work components of the research and CARIBSAVE’s commitment to institutional strengthening in

the Caribbean have helped to build capacity in a wide selection of ministries, academic institutions,

communities and other stakeholders in the areas of: climate modelling, gender and climate change, coastal

management methods and community resilience. Having been completed for 15 countries in the

Caribbean Basin, this work allows for inter-regional and cross-regional comparisons leading to lesson

learning and skills transfer.

A further very important aspect of the CCCRA is the democratisation of climate change science. This was

conducted through targeted awareness, tools (e.g. data visualisation, GIS imagery, animated projections

and short films), and participatory approaches (workshops and vulnerability mapping) to improve

stakeholder knowledge and understanding of what climate change means for them. Three short films, in

high-resolution format of broadcast quality, are some of the key outputs. These films are part of the

Partnerships for Resilience series and include: ‘Climate Change and Tourism’; ‘Caribbean Fish Sanctuaries’;

and ‘Living Shorelines’. They are available at www.youtube.com/Caribsave.

Project approach to enhancing resilience and building capacity to respond to climate change

across the Caribbean

Processes and outputs from the CCCRA bridge the gap between the public and private sectors and

communities; and their efforts to address both the physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change,

allowing them to better determine how current practices (which in fact are not isolated in one sector

alone) and capacities must be enhanced. The stages of the CCCRA country profile protocol (see Flow Chart

on following page) are as follows: a) Climate Modelling and Data Analysis (including analysis of key ‘Tier 1’

climate variables linking the climate modelling to physical impacts and vulnerabilities) b) Physical Impacts

and Vulnerability Assessment c) Tourism and Related Sector Vulnerability Assessments (including

examination of the sectors of water, energy, agriculture, biodiversity, health, infrastructure and settlement,

and comprehensive disaster management) d) Development of Vulnerability Profile with stakeholders taking

account of socio-economic, livelihood and gender impacts (including evaluation of ‘Tier 2’ linking variables

and indicators such as coastal inundation) e) Adaptive Capacity Assessment and Profiling f) Development of

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies and Policy Recommendations (action planning). The final stages

depicted in the flow chart focusing on the implementation of policies and strategies at

ministerial/government level and the implementation of actions at community level, using a community-

based adaptation approach, are proposed to be implemented as part of the forthcoming CCCRA process as

projects to be funded by other donors post the country profile stage.

The work of the CCCRA is consistent with the needs of Caribbean Small Island and Coastal Developing

States identified in the document, “Climate Change and the Caribbean: A Regional Framework for

Development Resilient to Climate Change (2009-2015)”, published by the Caribbean Community Climate

Change Centre (CCCCC); and supports each of the key strategies outlined in the framework’s Regional

Implementation Plan.

http://www.youtube.com/Caribsave

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CCCRA Profiling Flow Chart

The CCCRA continues to provide assistance to the governments, communities and the private sector of the

Caribbean at the local destination level and at national level through its primary outputs for each of the 15

participating countries: National Climate Change Risk Profiles; Summary Documents; and high-resolution

maps showing sea level rise and storm surge projections under various scenarios for vulnerable coastal

areas. It is anticipated that this approach will be replicated in other destinations and countries across the

Caribbean Basin.

The CCCRA explored recent and future changes in climate in each of the 15 countries using a combination

of observations and climate model projections. Despite the limitations that exist with regards to climate

modelling and the attribution of present conditions to climate change, this information provides very useful

indications of the changes in the characteristics of climate and impacts on socio-economic sectors.

Consequently, decision makers should adopt a precautionary approach and ensure that measures are taken

to increase the resilience of economies, businesses and communities to climate-related hazards.

This report was created through an extensive desk research, participatory workshops, fieldwork, surveys

and analyses with a wide range of public and private sector, and local stakeholders over 18 months.

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

AIC -------------------- Aviation-induced clouds AOSIS ---------------- Alliance of Small Island States APAMO -------------- Association of Protected Areas Management Organization APD ------------------- Air Passenger Duty AR4 ------------------- Fourth Assessment Report ASTER --------------- Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer AT --------------------- Ambergris Today AusAID --------------- Australian Agency for International Development BAL ------------------- Belize Aquaculture Ltd BAS ------------------- Belize Audubon Society BAU ------------------ Business as usual BECOL ---------------- Belize Electrical Company Ltd BEL ------------------- Belize Electricity Ltd BERDS --------------- Biodiversity and Environmental Resource Data System of Belize BEST ----------------- Belize Enterprise for Sustainable Technology BSI -------------------- Belize Sugar Industries BTB ------------------- Belize Tourism Board BUN-CA -------------- Biomass Users Network in Central America BWS ----------------- Belize Water Services Ltd. CAD ------------------- Caribbean Application Document CAPRA --------------- Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment CAREC --------------- Caribbean Epidemiology Centre CARICOM ----------- Caribbean Community CATHALAC --------- Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean CBB ------------------- Central Bank of Belize CBD ------------------- Convention on Biological Diversity CBO ------------------- Community-Based Organisation CCB ------------------- Caye Caulker Belize CCCCC---------------- Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre CCCRA --------------- CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas CCD ------------------- Convention to Combat Desertification CDEMA -------------- Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency CDM ------------------ Clean Development Mechanism (in the context of energy) CDM ------------------ Comprehensive Disaster Management CDMP ---------------- Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project CEHI ----------------- Caribbean Environmental Health Institute CEIS ------------------- Caribbean Energy Information System CEMP ---------------- Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan CITES ----------------- Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species OLADE --------------- Latin American Energy Organisation COP ------------------- Conference of the Parties CPA ------------------- Country Poverty Assessment CREDP --------------- Caribbean Renewable Energy Development Project CRFM ---------------- Caribbean Regional Fisheries Mechanism CROSQ --------------- Caribbean Regional Organisation for Standards and Quality CTA ------------------- Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation CTO ------------------- Caribbean Tourism Organization CUBiC ---------------- Caribbean Uniform Building Code CW -------------------- Consolidated Water (Belize) Ltd. CZM ----------------- Coastal Zone Management CZMAI --------------- Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute

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DANA ---------------- Damage and Needs Assessment DEEPC ---------------- Caribbean Energy Efficiency Development Project DFID ------------------ Department for International Development DJF -------------------- December, January, February DMC ------------------ Disaster Management Committee DOE ------------------ Department of the Environment DRM ------------------ Disaster Risk Management DRR ------------------- Disaster Risk Reduction ECLAC --------------- United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean ECE ------------------- Energy Conservation Efficiency EIA -------------------- Environmental Impact Assessment ENSO ----------------- El Nino Southern Oscillation EOC ------------------- Emergency Operations Centre ETS-------------------- Emission Trading Scheme EU--------------------- European Union EWS ------------------ Early Warning System FAO ------------------ Food and Agriculture Organization GCM ----------------- Global Circulation Model GCP ------------------- Ground Control Point GDEM ---------------- Global Digital Elevation Model GDP ------------------ Gross Domestic Product GFDRR --------------- Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GGCA ---------------- Global Gender and Climate Alliance GGHE ---------------- General Government Expenditure on Health GHG ------------------ Greenhouse gas GIS ------------------- Geographic Information System (GIS) GOB ------------------ Government of Belize GPS ------------------- Global Positioning System GWI ------------------ Global Water Intelligence HFA ------------------- Hyogo Framework for Action IAASTD--------------- International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for

Development IATA ------------------ International Air Transport Association ICC -------------------- International Code Council ICIMOD -------------- International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development ICZM ----------------- Integrated Coastal Zone Management IDB -------------------- Inter American Development Bank IEA -------------------- International Energy Agency IFAD ------------------ International Fund for Agricultural Development IFRC ------------------ International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies IIC --------------------- Inter-American Investment Corporation IICA ------------------- Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture INSMET -------------- Meteorological Institute of the Republic of Cuba IPCC ----------------- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISCCP ----------------- International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project ISDR ------------------ International Strategy for Disaster Reduction ITZC------------------- Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone IVM ------------------- Integrated Vector Management JJA -------------------- June, July, August LIC -------------------- Land Information Centre LPG ------------------- Liquefied Petroleum Gas LSMS ----------------- Living Standards Measurement Survey MAM ----------------- March, April, May MDG ----------------- Millennium Development Goal

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MNRE --------------- Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment MONRECI ----------- Ministry of Natural Resources, the Environment, Commerce and Industry,

Government of Belize MPA ------------------ Marine Protected Area MT -------------------- Ministry of Tourism MWh ----------------- Megawatt hours NASA ----------------- National Aeronautics and Space Administration NEC ------------------- National Emergency Coordinator NEMO ---------------- National Emergency Management Organization NGO ------------------ Non-Governmental Organisation NIWRM -------------- National Integrated Water Resource Management Policy NMS ------------------ National Meteorological Service, Belize NPDC ----------------- National Policy Development Committee OE -------------------- Operating Entities OECD ----------------- Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development OECS ---------------- Organization of Eastern Caribbean States OLADE --------------- Latin America Energy Organisation PACT ----------------- Protected Areas Conservation Trust PAHO ---------------- Pan-American Health Organization PCSD ----------------- Peninsula Citizens for Sustainable Development PH--------------------- Paradise Hunter PTWC ---------------- Pacific Tsunami Warning Center PUC ------------------ Public Utilities Commission RCM ------------------ Regional Climate Model RCMRD -------------- Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development REAP ----------------- Rural Education & Agriculture Programme REDD ----------------- Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation REM ------------------ Riley Encased Methodology RH -------------------- Relative Humidity RNAT ----------------- Regional Needs Assessment Team RTK ------------------- Real Time Kinematic RWU ----------------- Rural Water Unit SERVIR -------------- Regional Visualization & Monitoring System SIB -------------------- Statistical Institute of Belize SIDS ------------------ Small Island Developing States SLR ------------------- Sea Level Rise SON ------------------ September, October, November SST -------------------- Sea Surface Temperatures STP ------------------- Sustainable Tourism Program TIN ------------------- Triangular Irregular Network TOR ------------------- Terms of Reference UKERC --------------- UK Energy Research Centre UNCCD--------------- United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification UNDAF -------------- United Nations Development Assistance Framework UNDP ---------------- United Nations Development Programme UNEP ----------------- United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO ------------- United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation UNFCCC ------------- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFPA --------------- United Nations Population Fund UNIFEM ------------- United Nations Development Fund for Women UN-OHRLLS --------- United Nations Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed

Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States UNWTO ------------- United Nations World Tourism Organization USAID ---------------- United States Agency for International Development

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UWI ------------------ University of the West Indies VCA ------------------- vulnerability and capacity assessment WAAS ---------------- Wide Area Augmentation System WASA ---------------- Water and Sewerage Authority WCS ------------------ Wildlife Conservation Society WHO ----------------- World Health Organization WMB ----------------- Water Missions in Belize WMO ---------------- World Meteorological Organization WWF ----------------- World Wildlife Fund

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A practical evidence-based approach to

building resilience and capacity to

address the challenges of climate

change in the Caribbean

Climate change is a serious and substantial threat to

the economies of Caribbean nations, the livelihoods

of communities and the environments and

infrastructure across the region. The CARIBSAVE

Climate Change Risk Atlas (CCCRA) Phase I, funded

by the UK Department for International

Development (DFID/UKaid) and the Australian

Agency for International Development (AusAID), was

conducted from 2009 – 2011 and successfully used

evidence-based, inter-sectoral approaches to

examine climate change risks, vulnerabilities and

adaptive capacities; and develop pragmatic

response strategies to reduce vulnerability and

enhance resilience in 15 countries across the

Caribbean (Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, The

Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, The

Dominican Republic, Grenada, Jamaica, Nevis, Saint

Lucia, St. Kitts, St. Vincent & the Grenadines,

Suriname and the Turks & Caicos Islands).

The CCCRA provides robust and meaningful new

work in the key sectors and focal areas of:

Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and

Development; Agriculture and Food security;

Energy; Water Quality and Availability; Sea Level

Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal

Infrastructure and Settlements; Comprehensive

Disaster Management; Human Health; and Marine

and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries. This work

was conducted through the lens of the tourism

sector; the most significant socio-economic sector to

the livelihoods, national economies and

environments of the Caribbean and its people.

SELECTED POLICY POINTS

Regional Climate Models, downscaled to

national level in the Risk Atlas, have provided

projections for Caribbean SIDS and coastal

states with enough confidence to support

decision-making for immediate adaptive action.

Planned adaptation must be an absolute

priority. New science and observations should

be incorporated into existing sustainable

development efforts.

Economic investment and livelihoods,

particularly those related to tourism, in the

coastal zone of Caribbean countries are at risk

from sea level rise and storm surge impacts.

These risks can encourage innovative

alternatives to the way of doing business and

mainstreaming of disaster risk reduction across

many areas of policy and practice.

Climate change adaptation will come at a cost

but the financial and human costs of inaction

will be much greater.

Tourism is the main economic driver in the

Caribbean. Primary and secondary climate

change impacts on this sector must both be

considered seriously. Climate change is

affecting related sectors such as health,

agriculture, biodiversity and water resources

that in turn impact on tourism resources and

revenue in ways that are comparable to direct

impacts on tourism alone.

Continued learning is a necessary part of

adaptation and building resilience and capacity.

There are many areas in which action can and

must be taken immediately.

Learning from past experiences and applying

new knowledge is essential in order to avoid

maladaptation and further losses.

xix

Vulnerable community livelihoods

The town of Placencia is located on a

low-lying peninsula.

A significant percentage of livelihoods,

such as tour operations, water-sports,

accommodation facilities, food and

beverage operations, are related – and

therefore dependant on tourism.

Residents have noted an increase in the

incidence of ‘freak storms’, or localised

tropical storm-type conditions which

affect livelihoods directly and indirectly.

There is only one road in and out of

Placencia and for the duration of any

flood, there is no access to and from the

community.

Vulnerable coastlines

1 m SLR places 73% of the major tourism

properties at risk; increasing to 86%

under a 2 m SLR scenario.

At 0.5 m SLR scenario, Rocky Point is

projected to lose 75% of its beach area,

followed by San Pedro (19%) and Caye

Caulker (17%).

With a 1 m SLR, Caye Caulker would lose

almost its entire beach area (96%),

followed by Rocky Point (90%) and Sand

Pedro (45%).

With a 2 m SLR, both Caye Caulker and

Rocky Point would lose all (100%) of its

beach area, with San Pedro losing its

beach area with a 3 m SLR scenario.

Overview of Climate Change Issues in Belize

Previous assessments of the tourism sector in Belize have acknowledged that as a tropical, coastal nation,

Belize is highly vulnerable to variable climate and weather patterns as well as tropical cyclones. In fact, the

country is already experiencing some of the effects of climate variability and change through damages from

severe weather systems and other extreme events, as well as more subtle changes in temperatures.

Detailed climate modelling projections for Belize predict:

an increase in average atmospheric temperature;

reduced average annual rainfall;

increased Sea Surface Temperatures (SST); and

the potential for an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.

And the extent of such changes is expected to be worse than what is being experienced now.

To capture local experiences and observations; and to determine the risks to coastal properties and

infrastructure, selected sites were analysed to:

1. assess the vulnerability of the livelihoods of community residents in Placencia area to climate

change; and

2. project sea level rise and storm surge impacts on Caye Caulker, Rocky Point and San Pedro.

The sites were selected by national stakeholders and represent areas of the country which are important to

the tourism sector and the economy as a whole, and are already experiencing adverse impacts from

climate-related events.

Climate change effects are evident in the decline of some coastal tourism resources, but also in the

socioeconomic sectors which support tourism, such as agriculture, water resources, health and

biodiversity.

xx

Climate Change Projections for Belize

The projections of temperature, precipitation, sea surface temperatures; and tropical storms and hurricanes

for Belize are indicated in Box 1 and have been used in making expert judgements on the impacts on

various socio-economic sectors and natural systems, and their further implications for the tourism industry.

Stakeholders consulted in the CCCRA have shared their experiences and understanding about climate-

related events, and this was generally consistent with observational data.

Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and

Settlements

The majority of infrastructure and settlements in Belize,

including government, health, commercial and

transportation facilities, are located on or near the coast and

these areas already face pressure from natural forces (wind,

waves, tides and currents) and human activities, (beach sand

removal and inappropriate construction of shoreline

structures). The impacts of climate change, in particular SLR,

will magnify these pressures and accelerate coastal erosion.

The CARIBSAVE Partnership coordinated a field research

team with members from the University of Waterloo

(Canada) and the staff from the Belize Tourism Board,

Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute and the

Hol Chan Marine Reserve to complete detailed coastal

profile surveying in the areas of Caye Caulker, Rocky Point

and San Pedro.

Box 1: Climate Modelling Projections for Belize

Temperature: Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections indicate increases between 3.5˚C and 3.6˚C in

mean annual temperatures by the 2080s, in the higher emissions scenario.

Precipitation: Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of rainfall span both overall increases and decreases,

ranging from -34 to +13 mm per month by 2080 under a higher emissions scenario. Most projections tend

toward decreases. The RCM projections, driven by HadCM3 boundary conditions, indicate large decreases in

all seasons (-26%) and decreases of (-32%) with ECHAM4.

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST): GCM projections indicate increases in SST throughout the year. Projected

increases range from +0.8˚C and +2.7˚C by the 2080s across all three emissions scenarios.

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes: North Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms appear to have increased in

intensity over the last 30 years. Observed and projected increases in SSTs indicate potential for continuing

increases in hurricane activity and model projections indicate that this may occur through increases in

intensity of events but not necessarily though increases in frequency of storms.

Figure 1: Evidence of Erosion and SLR in Caye Caulker, Belize

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1 m and 2 m SLR scenarios and beach erosion scenarios of

50 m and 100 m were calculated to assess the potential

risks to major tourism resources.

Results of these surveys indicate that 1 m SLR places 73%

of the major tourism properties at risk; increasing to 86%

under a 2 m SLR scenario (See Table 1).

Table 1: Impacts associated with 1m and 2m SLR and 50m and 100m beach erosion in Belize

Tourism Attractions Transportation Infrastructure

Major Tourism Resorts

Sea Turtle Nesting

Sites

Airport Lands

Major Road

Networks

Seaport Lands

SLR 1.0m 73% 44% 50% 4% 40%

2.0m 86% 60% - 6% -

Erosion 50m 95% 100% - - -

100m 100% - - - -

Table 2 highlights the beach area losses for three beach areas in Belize Caye Caulker, Rocky Point, San

Pedro. At 0.5 m SLR scenario, Rocky Point is projected to lose 75% of its beach area, followed by San Pedro

(19%) and Caye Caulker (17%). With a 1 m SLR, Caye Caulker would lose almost its entire beach area (96%),

followed by Rocky Point (90%) and Sand Pedro (45%). With a 2 m SLR, both Caye Caulker and Rocky Point

would lose all (100%) of its beach area, with San Pedro losing its beach area with a 3 m SLR scenario. The

response of tourists to such a diminished beach area remains an important question for future research;

however local tourism operators perceive that these beach areas along with the prevailing climate are the

main tourism attractions.

Table 2: Beach Area losses at Three Beach Areas in Belize

Caye Caulker Rocky Point San Pedro

SLR

Scenario

Beach Area

Lost To SLR

(m²)

Beach Area

Lost (%)

Beach Area

Lost To SLR

(m²)

Beach Area

Lost (%)

Beach Area

Lost To SLR

(m²)

Beach Area

Lost (%)

0.5m 723 17% 6112 75% 7375 19%

1.0m 3424 96% 1251 90% 10147 45%

2.0m 180 100% 788 100% 18662 93%

3.0m - - - - 2596 100%

Figure 3 and Figure 4 clearly illustrate that the longer term erosion response of the shoreline to a 1 m SLR

would have significant implications for the shoreline and the loss of a total of high value properties.

Figure 2: Staff from the Hol Chan Marine Reserve learning how to use the High Resolution Coastal Profile Surveying with an RTK GPS System.

xxii

Figure 3: Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR, Caye Caulker Village, Caye Caulker

Figure 4: Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR, Rocky Point, North Ambergris Caye

The high resolution imagery provided by the techniques utilised in this project component is essential to

assess the vulnerability of infrastructure and settlements to future SLR but its ability to identify individual

xxiii

properties also makes it a very powerful risk communication tool. Having this information available for

community / resort level dialogue on potential adaptation strategies is highly valuable.

Given the historical damage caused by event driven coastal erosion, as well as slow-onset SLR, the need to

design and implement better strategies for mitigating their impacts is becoming apparent. There are a

number of solutions that can be used to tackle beach erosion. Unfortunately, most of the common

solutions, such as beach replenishment and groynes, are only temporary and their cost makes them

unaffordable.

There are three main types of adaptation policies that can be implemented to reduce the vulnerability of

the tourism sector in Belize to SLR and improve the adaptive capacity of the country: (1) Hard engineering

defences and (2) soft engineering defences, which both aim to protect existing infrastructure and the land

on which the infrastructure is built, as well as (3) retreat policies, which aim to establish setbacks and

thereby move people and/or infrastructure away from risk.

Adaption options should be implemented in the framework of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM)

and all decisions need to take into account the broad range of stakeholders involved in decision-making in

the coastal zone. Adaptations should benefit coastlines in light of both climate and non-climate stresses

and adaptations will be promoted as a process towards ICZM rather than an endpoint.

All levels of government and administration in Belize need to embark on a coordinated communication

campaign to inform and raise awareness of SLR impacts and costs for decision makers within the tourism

sector including operators, investors, planners, developers, policy makers, architects and communities.

Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development

More than 50 residents and workers from

Placencia participated in research which

included vulnerability mapping, focus-

groups and household surveys which were

developed according to a sustainable

livelihoods framework. This provided an

understanding of: how the main tourism-

related activities, including fishing and

other micro- and medium-sized

commercial activities located along the

coast and have been affected by climate-

related events; the community’s adaptive

capacity and the complex factors that

influence their livelihood choices; and the

differences in the vulnerability of men and

women.

Placencia is a small town located in the Stann Creek District, where tourism is a major part of the local

economy. It is the most southern town on the largest peninsula of the Gulf of Mexico. The eastern side of

the Peninsula is a long expanse of white sand beach as well as mangrove in some areas; the western side is

bounded by a long narrow north-south trending bay of the Caribbean Sea.

The Stann Creek District employs the largest percentage (14%) of the labour force in the tourism sector,

compared to other districts and undoubtedly most of the tourism employees are concentrated in Placencia.

Figure 5: A craft and souvenir stall on the beach in Placencia

xxiv

Owing to the growth of tourism in the community, a number of residents – especially fishermen – have

changed their livelihoods to engage in tourism-based activities which require similar skills as their former

job. Tourism-related jobs mainly revolve around tour operator / guide enterprises and popular activities

include manatee watching, whale shark watching, fly-fishing, sailing, SCUBA diving and snorkelling. Tour

guide and tour operator positions are mainly filled by men. Other areas of work include low-paid, low-

skilled positions such as table waiting, ancillary work and cooks at restaurants/hotels as well as in home

based businesses, much of which are conducted by women. Craft vending is also another tourism-based

activity, although the market also include locals.

Community Characteristics and Experiences

Some of the observed changes in climate noted by residents in Placencia include:

more extreme high and low ambient temperatures, especially uncommonly low temperatures (i.e.

below 50°F);

the apparent merging of wet and dry seasons;

an increase in the incidence of ‘freak storms’, or localised tropical storm-type conditions; and

an increase in the severity of direct and indirect hurricane impacts over the past few years.

In particular, the southern end of peninsula seems to be more susceptible to storm surge impacts and there

are reports of more intense flooding in the area. There are also concerns that changes in tidal patterns

(higher than normal tides) and SLR are causing salt water intrusion into groundwater aquifers on both sides

of the lagoon.

Hurricanes are the most destructive climate-related events impacts on the community. Hurricane Iris in

2001 was one of the most severe systems to affect Belize, causing widespread damage and destruction

throughout, including Placencia. Persons were out of work for several weeks either because of repairs to

be made, or lack of business (possibly due to access challenges, unawareness of the resumption of

operations, others attending to their own response / rehabilitation efforts). Placencia has also experienced

flooding resulting from heavy, continuous rainfall. Fortunately, flooding events are mostly short-lived,

because the sandy substrate allows water to infiltrate through the ground quickly. However, there is only

one road in and out of Placencia and for the duration of any flood, there is no access to and from the

Figure 6: A group creating a vulnerability map of Placencia

xxv

community. Previous torrential rainfall events filled fishing and tour boats with water and caused some of

them to sink.

Within the community, there are several relatively strong factors contributing to adaptive capacity.

Knowledge of climate change and climate related events is relatively high and informed residents can

prepare better for what is to come. Ownership of and access to assets are moderate to high, which follows

the same trend in household income levels and financial security. Most households are also relatively small

(more than 90% have three occupants or less), which would imply that burden-of-care is low and social

support linkages exist amongst households. However, other elements of adaptive capacity are fairly low,

including financial support linkages and a high dependence on an external food.

Some differences exist between male and female headed households, including household income levels,

financial security and ownership/access to assets. In particular, the only household surveyed with a food

shortage was headed by a female. Otherwise, female-headed households are not distinctly disadvantaged

to male-headed households, or vice-versa.

With the constant threat and impact of hurricanes and flooding, community residents have adopted various

coping strategies given that residents suggest that the sandy substrate makes it difficult to build hurricane-

proof structures. Since heavy rains have proven disastrous for fishermen before, sterns (one of the

heaviest parts of the boat) are removed from the boats to protect against sinking. This has proven useful as

the boats are generally not removed from the water.

To address water scarcity problems, rainwater harvesting would provide households in the community with

an alternative source of water for non-potable uses (for toilets, irrigation, washing cars, etc.). Consideration

can also be given to implementing energy saving practices (e.g. using fluorescent light bulbs) widely. These

activities will have multiple results, but most importantly resource conservation and less demand on the

public supply, which also translates to less expenditure on public amenities.

Residents are concerned that the only access road to and from the community is extremely vulnerable to

flooding and in the event that the bridge is inundated, the entire community is relatively cut off from the

remainder of the country, unless water transport can be provided. The current condition of the access

road/bridge should be assessed to determine if any remedial actions can be taken to resolve the poor

drainage issue.

There is no facility for small vessel storage or shelter in the event of inclement weather. Assistance is

needed for boat owners to acquire the necessary equipment which can be used to haul vessels out of the

water in advance of storm activity. An area will also need to be designated for storing these vessels. There

are many concerns regarding the pollution and solid waste disposal issues that plague the community and

surrounding natural environment. Therefore a greater effort should be placed on regulating the disposal

practices of the shrimp farms and exploring more suitable, less damaging alternatives for disposal of other

waste where possible.

xxvi

Agriculture and Food Security

Agriculture is the main pillar of the

Belizean economy contributing more

than 12 percent of GDP and over 57

percent of total export earnings. The

World Bank estimates that agriculture

is the most important economic

sector in Belize in terms of income

generation, employment, food

security and poverty alleviation.

Agriculture in Belize is characterised

by three main sub-sectors: a fairly

well organised traditional export

sector for sugar, banana, citrus and

marine products, a more traditional,

small-scale farm sector, producing

food mainly for local consumption and a well-integrated large-scale commercial sector.

More than BZ$292 million is generated by three commodities: citrus products, sugar and bananas. The

other export earners are papaya, red kidney beans, black-eyed peas, pepper sauce and cocoa beans.

Domestic agriculture includes rice, maize, beans, root crops, vegetables, poultry, beef and pigs. The

aquaculture sub-sector is also a significant contributor to the Belizean economy.

Belize’s agricultural sector is highly vulnerable due to the country’s geo-physical location and hydro-

meteorological hazards and as a result of the shortcomings of the current disaster risk reduction and

response mechanisms to effectively address climate-related impacts. A vulnerability assessment for

agriculture and food security in Belize using crop simulation models to simulate physiological responses to

climatic parameters for three staple crops (rice, maize and beans), projects a reduction in yield for each of

these three crops representing BZ$13-18 million in lost revenuei.

The main factor contributing to land and soil degradation in Belize is that the proportion of the country

under agricultural cultivation exceeds the true potential so a lot of land is left fallow. Most agricultural

development is currently cultivated on sandy soils categorised as marginal or third class and has high risk of

degradation. Local farming practices also threaten the country’s agricultural capacity and national food

security ranging from deforestation, farming on acidic soils and steep slopes, slash and burn agriculture,

use of agricultural land for residential settlements and livestock over-grazing. Agricultural communities in

Belize are therefore extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts and food insecurity due to chronic

situations that undermine income earning capacity and purchasing power resulting in limited access to the

food.

Table 3 shows a scenario of the impact of disasters and climate change on agricultural sectors. The high

level of vulnerability of the agriculture and fisheries sectors to climate-related disasters was evident in the

devastation caused by the impacts of Hurricane Dean, Tropical Storm Arthur, Tropical depression 16 and

Hurricane Richard between 2007 and 2010.

i Green, E. D. (2007). Climate Change and National Food Security. Belmopan: Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre.

Figure 7: Grain and produce at market day

xxvii

Table 3: Climate Change Impact on Agriculture & Fisheries Sector – Belize

SECTORS DISASTER CLIMATE CHANGE

Agriculture

Sugarcane crop is exposed to flood damage in Orange Walk and Corozal.

Citrus and banana crops are especially vulnerable to wind and flood damage in Stann Creek.

Expected increases of 1-2°C and rainfall changes of 10% are predicted to lower productivity of beans, corn and rice by 10%.

Banana, citrus and emerging vegetable crops face same threats as above.

Fisheries

Exports of shrimp and other marine products are at risk to being affected by tropical storms and storm surges.

Habitats such as sea grass beds, mangroves and coral reefs are vulnerable to storms and siltation.

Traditional catches are expected to migrate as Belizean water warms up.

SLR and coral bleaching also threaten habitats for fish nurseries, such as mangroves and coral reefs.

At the farm level, there are some standard practices for successful small farming systems in Belize in

pursuit of enhanced climate resilience and sustainable livelihoods, namely common vision, teamwork,

mixed farming and natural resource management. Most farms have some form of mixed farming as a

coping strategy, but natural resource management is generally weak to non-existent and there is a

tendency towards the unsustainable and heavy use of fertilizers and chemicals in crop production.

The Belizean farmers should benefit from a “Crop-growing for Climate Change” project to build their

capacity to grow produce using good agricultural practices and to introduce them to new technologies that

will improve the quality and yield of their crops under existing pedoclimatic conditions. They could also

reactivate the “Rural Education Agricultural Programme” to revive the interest of young persons in

agriculture and to build entrepreneurial skills for at-risk youth.

Energy and Tourism

Tourism is an increasingly significant energy consumer and emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs) both

globally (5% of CO2) and in the Caribbean, with aviation the most important sub-sector. According to

available statistics Belize is emitting lower levels of CO2 than the global annual average of 4.3 t CO2 per

capita (3.1 t CO2). Current tourism related energy use and associated emissions are estimated to be the

equivalent of 31% of estimated national emissions of CO2, though there are considerable uncertainties

associated with these estimates.

Energy audits will help to identify major energy consuming sub-sectors and to develop appropriate

strategies for energy and emissions reductions. Cruise ships (39%), aviation (33%) and accommodation

(12%) were identified as the major direct consumers of energy and emissions. A detailed energy

assessment of the tourism sector is needed however, to confirm these figures, which in part are based on

estimates with considerable uncertainties in assumptions.

Climate change can have both direct and indirect impacts on energy generation, distribution and

transmission infrastructure, with implications for existing traditional (fossil fuel based) energy systems, as

well as proposed renewable energy initiatives. An increase in the intensity (and possibly frequency) of

severe low pressure systems, such as hurricanes, has the potential to affect both traditional and renewable

energy production and distribution infrastructure, including generating plants, transmission lines and

pipelines. Power generating stations and other major infrastructure located on the coastline are highly

vulnerable to damage from flooding and inundation resulting from SLR and storm induced surges.

Temperature increases have been shown to reduce the efficiency of energy generation at thermal power

xxviii

plants and reduced precipitation may affect water availability for non-contact cooling of power generators.

Alternative energy sources, while they are environmentally more sustainable, also face challenges from

physical climate change impacts and these must be considered in energy sector planning.

Total installed capacity in Belize was 117 MW in 2009, comprised of traditional fossil fuel based production,

biomass, hydropower and small contributions from solar and wind power. Additional electricity is

purchased from Mexico and crude oil production averaged 2,500 barrels per day in 2006. Energy is mostly

used for transport (57%), followed by the industrial and commercial sector (22%) and residential uses

(20%). There are 6 main companies contributing electricity to the grid. Consumption of fossil fuels has more

than tripled between 1990 and 2009 and electricity has doubled between 2001 and 2010.

As shown in Table 4, there has been continuous growth in fossil fuel consumption in Belize, from 2,216 bbls

per day in 1990, to about 7,250 bbls per day in 2009. Corresponding emissions have grown from 313,000 t

CO2 in 1990 to 994,000 t CO2 in 2008. There has been a decline in fuel use (and emissions) from 2008 to

2009, which may be a result of the global financial crisis or a reflection of the increased role played by

renewable energy sources in electricity generation.

Table 4: Growth trends in fossil fuel-based energy consumption in Belize, 1990-2009

Oil (bbls per

day)

Metric Tons of CO2

1990 2,216 313,000

1991 2,472 350,000

1992 2,116 304,000

1993 2,108 301,000

1994 1,999 285,000

1995 2,294 329,000

1996 1,936 271,000

1997 3,191 439,000

1998 3,210 439,000

1999 3,257 445,000

2000 4,706 660,000

2001 6,262 863,000

2002 6,008 808,000

2003 6,285 849,000

2004 6,754 906,000

2005 7,122 966,000

2006 7,204 968,000

2007 7,300 981,000

2008 7,400 994,000

2009 7,248 973,583* * own calculation

(Source: Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, 2010)

Along with the growth in tourism and the economy more generally, there has also been a growth trend in

energy consumption. The size of the contribution from tourism to energy consumption and therefore

emissions is however unknown. Preliminary estimations based on a more detailed analysis of tourism

related emissions have indicated that emissions from tourism accounted for 304,862 t CO2 in 2009. In

xxix

comparison to national emissions of 973,583 t CO2, emissions caused by the tourism system are responsible

for the equivalent of about 31% of national emissions.

It is advisable for all destinations in the Caribbean to initiate discussions on new tourism management

models to reduce energy use and emissions, with a focus on market structure and average length of stay.

This is because some markets are economically more beneficial, while consuming considerably less energy

and causing lower emissions. The analysis of markets based on a combined assessment of their economics

and energy intensity should thus be a key priority.

The Belize Tourist Board (BTB) has intensified its marketing to focus on Europe and the emerging markets

of Mexico and Central America (CBB, 2010; BTB, 2010). Long-haul flights increase average emissions per

tourist therefore a focus on Europe will increase vulnerabilities in the energy sector. Furthermore, average

length of stay is declining throughout the region and to maintain a stable number of bednights tourist

volumes would have to continuously grow in the future. This would consequently make countries more

vulnerable to energy prices and climate policy. While statistics on international tourists’ average length of

stay in Belize or its development over time could not be found, efforts to increase average length of stay

should nevertheless be considered. Evidence from a case study in Barbados suggests that this is indeed

feasible and there is also scope to increase spending. A strong focus on Mexico and Central America (closer

markets) as well as alternative marketing strategies with a focus on average length of stay should thus be

envisaged.

Fossil fuel consumption can be substituted through technological innovation that reduces energy needs as

well as renewable energies. Surveys of tourism businesses in Belize showed that approximately 30% would

support the promotion of energy efficiency and only 22% would support alternative energy sources

(Richardson, 2007). The introduction of many technologies is economically feasible in tourism, while new

financing mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and voluntary carbon offsetting

schemes can make contributions to implementing new and innovative technical solutions. Belize has

identified the potential advantages of getting involved with regional and international programmes,

including the CDM.

A number of recommendations are proposed that reflect many of the guidance statements made by the

Public Utilities Commission (2003) for a National Energy Policy. As a strategy to achieve low-energy, low-

emission societies in the Caribbean, the following specific measures are recommended.

Measures to improve knowledge and awareness of energy consumption, emissions of GHG and

climate change among stakeholders;

Energy audits to better understand where energy is used and where emissions occur;

The definition of action plans to avoid unnecessary energy use, increase efficiencies and develop

renewable energies;

Pursue the concept of a ‘Green Economy’ to boost tourism and further reduce dependence on

imported energy;

Pricing of energy through taxes and emission trading to convey clear, long-term market signals; and

Regulation of carbon intense activities in combination with incentives for low-carbon technology

and consumption.

xxx

Water Quality and Availability

Belize is a country rich in surface water sources including streams and rivers as well as many groundwater

aquifers found in calcareous rock. The main source of freshwater in rural areas is predominantly

groundwater, where approximately 95% of freshwater is extracted from groundwater supplies. Freshwater

supplies are sufficient for the current population, though there is an increased stress on these supplies due

to population growth, increases in economic and agricultural activities, as well as an increase in droughts

(BEST, 2009). One desalinisation plant is operating in the country.

Since the Belize Water Services (BWS) took over water distribution from what used to be the Water and

Sewerage Authority (WASA), the rates have either doubled or increased many folds for tariffs and

connection rates (Mustafa and Reeder, 2009). The water cost for San Pedro (where water is sourced from

desalinisation) is BZD 0.20 per gallon for the first 1,000 gallons per month. In Belize City, the rate is BZD

0.10 per gallon, with an added 20% cost for sewerage service, mainly in Belize City and Belmopan. For

other areas, the rate is BZD 0.075 per gallon (See Table 5).

Table 5: Tariff Rates for Belize Water Services

Areas of Supply Rates BZ$ ($US)1 and Conditions

Belize City & Belmopan - Water &

Sewer Zones

2.(a) In any one month for less than 1,001 gallons a fee of $10.34 ($5.21)

(b) Proportionate fee for every gallon thereafter up to 2,000 gallons inclusive at the rate per 1,000 gallons of $17.81 ($8.97)

(c) Proportionate fee for every gallon above 2,000 gallons and up to 3,000 gallons inclusive at the rate per 1,000 gallons of $19.54 ($9.84) (etc. Increase in price for up to 5,000 gallons)

Water ONLY Areas - 14 municipalities - Those areas of Belize City

and Belmopan outside of sewer zones

- All other sub-urban and villages serviced by Belize Water Services Limited.

2.(a)In any one month for less than 1,001 gallons a fee of $8.62 ($4.34)


(c) Proportionate fee for every gallon above 2,000 gallons and up to 3,000 gallons inclusive at the rate per 1,000 gallons of $14.94 (14.92) (etc. Increase in price for up to 5,000 gallons)

San Pedro, Ambergris Caye 2.(a)In any one month for less than 1,001 gallons a fee of $25.27 ($12.73)



Caye Caulker 2.(a)In any one month for less than 1,001 gallons a fee of $23.00 (11.58)



1Exchange rate used BZ$1.00 = US$0.50

(Source: Belize Water Services, 2009)

Despite its water abundance, recent issues with water scarcity in some areas and water quality have

become more commonplace as various stresses on water resources increase. Key issues with water

vulnerability in Belize are the uneven distribution of water resources. The southern region has the lowest

population, with the highest amount of freshwater availability, whereas the central and northern regions

both have much larger populations and much less water resources. Several Cayes have become popular

xxxi

tourist destinations but have low availabilities of freshwater. In particular, Caye Caulker is vulnerable to

contamination of its underground water through poor sewer construction and intrusion of salt water into

aquifers. It has also been noted that there has been changes in precipitation and that this has led to severe

droughts that have affected many parts of the country.

In Belize, the distribution of all wells that have been drilled or dug out by hand is unknown. There is a lack

of coordination between the BWS and the local village water boards, of which there approximately 90 and

thus no concrete number existsii,iii. Under the village board, the households are usually charged a flat rate

per month as these are not often metered. Where there is no access to piped water service, or no local

provider, then the water is accessed using hand pumps.

There is no fully operational central administration for water resources management (BEST, 2009). Because

of this main issue, financial resources for water management have been minimal and have been focused on

the delivery end primarily for residential/domestic use.

The institutional capacity of Belize is quite large in this sector. However it is underfunded and at times not

adequately coordinated which results in overlapping government agencies and a lack of clear resource

management (BEST, 2009). Belize has an aging water infrastructure and BWS has several ongoing projects

to renew and maintain this (BWS, 2009). The creation of a Leak Detection Unit was crucial to savings both

BWS and more importantly for customers who were saved from paying for lost water (Ibid).

The possibility of broad scale implementation of rain water harvesting, localised waste water recycling

schemes and legislation, including for agricultural irrigation should be considered. Detailed surveying of

groundwater resources and well infrastructure and an increase in the coordination between the BWS and

local village water boards would contribute to sustainable water use.

The lack of information regarding groundwater leads to a difficulty in the management of future water

resources under climate change and increases the vulnerability of communities. The government could also

develop pilot projects to assess artificial recharge of aquifers and conduct feasibility studies explore the

possibility of additional projects. The development of mechanisms to facilitate Integrated Water Resources

Management (IWRM) should be considered. Such an approach allows an equitable management of water

resources, which will be particularly important with declining water resources under climate change.

Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management

Belize has experienced losses and damages from recent disasters that are worth examining in order to

identify vulnerabilities in the country. Specifically, the post-disaster time period is one where

vulnerabilities can be identified and addressed through adaptation and recovery efforts. In October 2010

Hurricane Richard, a category 1 storm, passed over a large area of Belize, affecting 4 districts. Total direct

losses are estimated at BZ $49.2 million including 831 destroyed houses, damages to the electricity and

ii BEST. (2009). National Adaptation Strategy to Address Climate Change in the Water Sector in Belize Strategy and Action Plan.

Belmopan, Belize: Belize Enterprise for Sustainable Technology (BEST). iii Mustafa, D. & Reeder, P. (2009). ‘People Is All That Is Left to Privatize’: Water Supply Privatization, Globalization and Social Justice

in Belize City, Belize. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 33(3), 789-808.

xxxii

water distribution systems and minor damages to education infrastructure from wind impactsiv. Figure 8

shows a house that was damaged during Hurricane Richard.

Figure 8: Damaged housing from Hurricane Richard in Belize 2010

(Source: NEMO, 2010a)

Agriculture and fisheries were also impacted by Hurricane Richard. The vulnerability of these two industries

is tied to weather systems in both the long and the short term. The citrus trees that were damaged by the

storm were full of fruit too immature for harvest at the time of the storm. The losses in the citrus industry

were estimated to be 30% of the season’s crop, or BZ $29.1 millioniv. The papaya industry also experienced

losses. These agricultural losses may only last one season, though fisheries, in contrast, experienced

indirect impacts from damaged eco-systems (mangroves, corals and sea grasses) that will affect fish catches

in the long term. Direct losses to equipment and vessels affected both artisanal and commercial fishers at

an estimated cost of BZ $4.28 millioniv.

Disaster management in Belize is led by the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO),

located in Belmopan. NEMO is comprised of the Cabinet, with the Prime Minister as chairperson and Chief

Executive Officers who chair the 10 operational committees. Further to these national level committees,

there are 9 District Emergency Committees (chaired by the senior Minister in each District) representing

Belize, Corozal, Orange Walk, Cayo, Stann Creek, Toledo, Belmopan, San Pedro and Caye Caulkerv. There

are activities within each district geared at all phases of the disaster management cycle from conducting

preparedness work through public education and training to participation in response activities. These

activities would include those in the watershed flood management project, funded by the Japanese

Government, to provide warnings to communities along the Mopan and Belize Rivers (GFDRR, 2010). The

Belize Electricity Company Limited (BECOL) also has a similar early warning system for the Macal River, a

tributary of the Belize River, where it has 3 hydroelectric generating facilities (GFDRR, 2010). Through an

information management project, NEMO is also working on enhancing early warning systems and the

UNDP has financed an Information Manager to permit better identification, assessment and monitoring of

disaster risk (GFDRR, 2010).

The most comprehensive policy document for disaster risk reduction is the Belize National Hazard

Mitigation Policy and associated Plan. The Hazard Mitigation Policy was developed after two major storms

created economic challenges in Belize and this was also a time when the importance of mainstreaming

iv NEMO. (2010b). Damage Assessment and Needs Analysis: Initial Damage Assessment Report Hurricane Richard. Belize City:

National Emergency Management Organization. v NEMO. (2011). Belize National Emergency Management Organization. Retrieved 11/14/2011, from http://www.nemo.org.bz/

xxxiii

disaster risk reduction into all areas and sectors to permit sustainable development was realised. The

policy concentrates on the need for integrated hazard risk management at all levels, sectors and

communities. Given the recent debt troubles in Belize, a hazard mitigation policy must include

considerations for reducing economic impacts. Other deficiencies relate to lack of power to enforce

legislation, overlapping regulation and mitigation tools under different government agencies, a skew of

legislation toward preparedness and response, the need for greater resources in government agencies and

the need for better integration of the information on environment, development and vulnerability into

decision making. These deficiencies are slow to change and require financial and technical resources,

however, NEMO is working to address them through project funding.

The formulation of an interactive and innovative community education and capacity building programme

designed to reach all levels of Belizean society will enable individuals to manage their own risk levels and

also build resilience to natural hazard events. It is also important for the Government of Belize works with

relevant tourism stakeholders to develop and implement the existing sustainable tourism plans with a

focus on diversification of the tourism product toward the interior and the development of more specific

disaster risk reduction efforts. Capacity building and technical training programmes for NEMO employees

could remedy current technical deficiencies and skills gained. Building regulations should be updated and

inspectors hired, in permanent positions to review all construction in the country.

Human Health

Health is an important component of the tourist industry because tourists are susceptible to both acquiring

diseases and being carriers of diseases. The potential effects of climate change on public health can be

direct or indirect and can affect visitors to a given destination (Confalonieri et al., 2007; Ebi et al., 2006;

Gubler, 2002; Patz et al., 2000). While the acquisition of infection may be serious for visitors it can also

devastate small economies because of the bad publicity it engenders.

An increase in the incidence of infectious diseases has been observed in recent years in Belize. In the Belize

Second National Communication to the UNFCCC, the first modelling study on dengue fever and the effects

of its transmission due to socio-economic, climatic and environmental factors was undertaken partly based

on research by Vanzie (2008). This study found that for 8 communities the probability of dengue

transmission and therefore dengue outbreaks was very high. While other infectious diseases (such as

malaria) represent a public health concern in Belize no other diseases were explored in the study. Belize

had the third highest incidence of malaria in Caribbean Epidemiological Centre (CAREC) Member countries

after Guyana and Suriname, with 11% of cases occurring between 1995 and 2005vi.

Belize has experienced a number of severe droughts in recent times that have affected the various parts of

the country as well as the economy. Acute respiratory infections are particularly important in Belize

because they constitute one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality in the country. Influenza-like

illnesses are also on the rise and there are also public health issues related to the quality of water supply.

There are a number of policies geared towards addressing climate change and health issues either directly

or indirectly. Some of these include:

the National Poverty Elimination Strategy and Action Plan 2007 – 2011;

vi CAREC. (2008c). Malaria - Morbidity Review of Communicable Diseases in CAREC Member Countries, 1980 – 2005, Morbidity

Reviews (pp. 6): Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, CAREC/PAHO/WHO.

xxxiv

the National Food and Nutrition Policy;

the (Avian) Influenza Pandemic Preparedness and Response Operation plan (2007); and

the Policy on Adoption of National Water Quality Standards and the Development of Human

Resources.

The majority (94%) of Belizeans are satisfied with their level of health care; a statistic which is reflected in

all income brackets in the societyvii. However in rural areas health facilities are sparsely distributed and

offer only primary health care since no general hospitals are provided in these areas. The need for this to

be addressed is particularly relevant in the south of the country where water supply, sanitation and

nutrition levels are generally lower than the national standard. Unfortunately, deficiencies in the health

sector such as insufficient staff, inadequate outreach to rural areas for the collection of basic items and

samples due to transportation limitations, insufficient pharmaceuticals and problems with buildings and

equipment, make this need unlikely to be met in the near term. However, the Ministry of Health considers

the programme to manage communicable diseases as “functioning well and require[ing] continued

upgrading and incremental improvement, rather than major new initiatives”.

Another important area that seeks to address vulnerability to climate change in Belize are programmes

geared towards increasing food security. These include the development of a Food-borne Disease

surveillance manual, budgetary allocation to the Food Assistance Programme and an increase in the

allocation of funding to small scale farmers in the 2010/2011 Budget. These projects target specific

communities or districts in Belize.

To enhance Belize’s efforts in maintaining a high standard of public health in the face of climate change it is

important to improve the use of technology with regard to vector-borne diseases. An Early Disease

Warning System that considers temperature signatures for vector borne diseases can be considered,

however this must be validated. Also, given the importance of tourism to the economy, an assessment of

tourism, health and climate change linkages would provide an indication of destination substitution if

tourism related health problems increased as a result of climate change.

Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries

Belize is home to a rich and diverse biodiversity and to marine and terrestrial eco-systems that are of global

importance. Belize has two large blocks of intact virgin rainforest that are perhaps some of the last

strongholds for species that require large, undisturbed areas for their long-term survival, such as the jaguar.

The Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System, stretching the full length of the country's coastline, is the largest

unbroken coral reef complex in the Western hemisphere and a World Heritage Site, in recognition of its

global importance.

These natural resources are critically important to the economy and communities of Belize and need to be

protected from the increasing pressures placed on them from unsustainable practices and from the impacts

of climate change. According to a recent economic valuation (Cooper, Burke and Bood, 2009) the value of

the products and services provided by Belize’s coral reefs and mangroves in relation to fisheries, tourism

and shoreline protection is estimated to be US$395–$559 million per year (Belize’s GDP was US$1.3 billion

vii Government of Belize. (2011). Belize Second National Communication to the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change. Belmopan: Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment.

xxxv

in 2007) viii.

Pine forests in Belize are already struggling to recover

from a devastating plague of pine beetles of the

Dendroctonus family. These small pine beetles have

destroyed up to 70,000 acres (80%) of the Mountain Pine

Ridge Forest near Belize’s border with Guatemala.

According to unpublished reports, unusually long and

severe droughts associated with climate change

weakened the trees, leaving them susceptible to beetle

attacks. Replanting has been hindered by ferocious

forest fire that wiped out close to 20,000 acres of forest

from a biosphere reserve.

An unusually high frequency of intense storms in the last few years, including Hurricane Mitch (1998),

Hurricane Keith (2000), Hurricane Iris (2001), Hurricane Dean (2007) and Hurricane Richard (2010); have

had serious impacts on the coral reefs, mangroves and beaches. A 2006 survey of 140 reefs throughout

Belize found that live coral cover has declined from a level of 25 – 30 percent in the mid-1990’s to an

average of 11 percent in 2006ix. The net loss of mangroves from 1980 to 2010 has been low, but it is worth

noting that 90.9% of the mangroves lost were ecologically important mangroves with ‘marine

connectivity’x. Low-lying coastal areas of Belize and offshore cayes and atolls, are very vulnerable to the

projected acceleration in SLR and are perhaps impossible to save.

Figure 10 represents the coastal and marine habitats of Belize. Belize has launched a major effort to

completely rewrite its fisheries legislation (which dates back to 1948), to be renamed the Aquatic Living

Resources Act rather than the Fisheries Act. The purpose of the new law is to mandate long-term

sustainable use of Belize‘s aquatic resources and it will provide a broad framework for specific regulations

including marine reserves, cooperation with other countries in managing aquatic resources, international

agreements and treaties, scientific research and monitoring and the control and enforcement of the law.

viii Cooper, E., L. Burke and N. Bood. 2009. “Coastal Capital: Belize. The Economic Contribution of Belize’s Coral Reefs and

Mangroves.” WRI Working Paper. World Resources Institute, Washington DC. 53 pp. Available online at

http://www.wri.org/publications ix McField, M. and N. Bood. 2007. “Our reef in peril – Can we use it without abusing it?” Chapter 6 in B. Balboni and J. Palacio (eds).

Taking stock: Belize at 25 years of Independence: Economy, Environment, Society and Culture. x Cherrington, E.A., Hernandez, B.E., Trejos, N.A., Smith, O.A. Anderson, E.R., Flores, A.I. and B.C. Garcia. (2010b). "Identification of

Threatened and Resilient Mangroves in the Belize Barrier Reef System." Technical report to the World Wildlife Fund. Water Center

for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC) / Regional Visualization & Monitoring System (SERVIR). 28

pp.

Figure 9: Mountain Pine Ridge Forest Reserve

Source: www.reforestbelize.com

xxxvi

Figure 10: Coastal and marine habitats of Belize

Studies have shown that Belize's conservation efforts have been extremely effective in protecting the

country's forests, with only some 6.4% of forests inside of legally declared protected areas cleared between

1980 and 2010, compared to over a quarter of forests outside of protected areas lost between 1980 and

2010. Marine conservation efforts and monitoring programmes in Belize have grown significantly over the

past two decades. The number of designated Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has grown to 18, covering

approximately 250,000 ha of marine areaxi .

Despite its evident successes, Belize’s efforts to manage its biodiversity and fisheries suffer primarily from a

lack of resources, which limits the government’s capacity to enforce environmental and fisheries laws

outside of protected areas. This is particularly worrisome in relation to the management of reef fisheries

along the Mesoamerican barrier reef, which in recent years has seen a rapid decline in coral cover and large

reef fish.

Belize has a strong history of natural resource management and monitoring, particularly compared to many

other countries in the region. The newly reinstated Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute

xi McField M., N. Bood, A. Fonseca, A. Arrivillaga, A.F. Rinos and R.M. Loreto Viruel 2008. “Status of the Mesoamerican Reef after

the 2005 coral bleaching event.” Chapter 5 in C. Wilkinson and D. Souther (eds.). Status of Caribbean coral reefs after bleaching and

hurricanes in 2005. Townsville, Australia: Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network and Reef and Rainforest Research Centre.

xxxvii

(CZMAI) is gradually building capacity for monitoring and research, although additional resources and

technologies are badly needed. Belize also benefits from the presence of several regional agencies that

operate under official CARICOM mandates. These include the Caribbean Community Climate Change

Centre (CCCCC) and the Caribbean Regional Fisheries Mechanism (CRFM), which provide the country with

additional human and technical capacity to examine key issues relevant to natural resource management,

climate change and development. Belize also has an active NGO community with considerable scientific

expertise and international networks of scientists and volunteers.

To avoid a continuing decline in the health of coral reefs and fish populations in MPAs, Belize should

increase overall investment, improve fee collection, strengthen monitoring and enforcement efforts and

establish a permanent source of funding to support the valuable MPA system. Strategic planning at the

system level is also needed to address disparities and gaps in the current structure.

Reforestation of the mangrove stands will protect coastal areas and also improve the health of fish

nurseries and coral reefs thus benefitting the livelihoods of those engaged in marine-based activities.

Proposed MPAs will benefit from the presence of mangrove trees, which filter pollutants and provide

protection to fish and crustaceans allowing them to increase in size and abundance. The Riley Encased

Methodology (REM) for mangrove replantation has proven successful in Belize and overcomes some of the

difficulties experienced in rehabilitation efforts in exposed locations.

Conclusion

The CCCRA explored recent and future changes in climate in Belize using a combination of observations and

climate model projections. Despite the limitations that exist with regards to climate modelling and the

attribution of present conditions to climate change, this information can provide very useful indications of

the changes in the characteristics of regional climate that one might expect under a warmer global climate.

Consequently, decision makers should adopt a precautionary approach and ensure that measures are taken

to increase the resilience of economies, businesses and communities to climate-related hazards.

Belize has a history of damages and losses from natural disasters. Disasters not only interrupt development

progress at the national level, but they also cause individuals to invest time and resources into rebuilding

their homes and livelihoods after an impact. Since it is predicted that under climate change hurricanes may

increase in intensity and, extreme rainfall events may increase in intensity preparedness for disasters (e.g.

flooding or drought) and climate change adaptation become common goals.

The Belize Climate Change Adaptation Policy has been drafted with the goal of getting all government

agencies to incorporate climate change into their activities and policies. Furthermore, there is a heavy focus

on public awareness and education to empower all Belizeans to build their resilience to extreme events.

The sector-specific activities and the inclusion of a monitoring and review process strengthens the policy

and provides a firm foundation for climate change adaptation in the country.

1

1. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), published in 2007,

provides undisputable evidence that human activities are the major reason for the rise in greenhouse gas

emissions and changes in the global climate system (Simpson M. , et al., 2010). Notably, climate change is

ongoing, with “observational evidence from all continents and oceans … that many natural systems are

being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases” (IPCC, 2007b, p. 8).

Observed and projected climate change will in turn affect socio-economic development (Global

Humanitarian Forum, 2009; Stern, 2006); with some 300,000 deaths per year currently being attributed to

climate change (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009). Mitigation (to reduce the speed at which the global

climate changes) as well as adaptation (to cope with changes that are inevitable) are thus of great

importance (Parry, et al., 2009).

The IPCC (IPCC, 2007a, p. 5) notes that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as it is now evident

from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow

and ice and rising global average sea level”. Climate change has started to affect many natural systems,

including hydrological systems (increased runoff and earlier spring peak discharge, warming of lakes and

rivers affecting thermal structure and water quality), terrestrial ecosystems (earlier spring events including

leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying, biodiversity decline and pole ward and upward shifts in the

ranges of plants and animal species), as well as marine systems (rising water temperatures, changes in ice

cover, salinity, acidification, oxygen levels and circulation, affecting shifts in the ranges and changes of

algae, plankton and fish abundance).

The IPCC (IPCC, 2007b) also notes that small islands are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate

change, including SLR and extreme events. Deterioration in coastal conditions is expected to affect fisheries

and tourism, with SLR being “expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal

hazards, threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support the livelihood of island

communities” (IPCC, 2007b, p. 15). Climate change is projected to reduce water resources in the Caribbean

to a point where these become insufficient to meet demand, at least in periods with low rainfalls (IPCC,

2007b). Together, these changes are projected to severely affect socio-economic development and well-

being in the world (Stern, 2006), with the number of climate change related deaths expected to rise to

500,000 per year globally by 2020 (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009). However, not all regions are equally

vulnerable to climate change. The Caribbean needs to be seen as one of the most vulnerable regions, due

to their relative affectedness by climate change, but also in terms of their capacity to adapt (Bueno,

Herzfeld, Stanton, & Ackerman, 2008). This should be seen in the light of (Dulal, Shah, & Ahmad, 2009, p.

371) conclusion that:

If the Caribbean countries fail to adapt, they are likely to take direct and substantial

economic hits to their most important industry sectors such as tourism, which depends on

the attractiveness of their natural coastal environments and agriculture (including

fisheries), which are highly climate sensitive sectors. By no incidence, these two sectors are

the highest contributors to employment in the majority of these countries and significant

losses or economic downturn attendant to inability to adapt to climate change will not

increase unemployment but have potentially debilitating social and cultural consequences

to communities.

Climate change has, since the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4th

Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007b), been high on the global political agenda. The most recent UN Conference

2

of the Parties (COP) in Mexico in December 2010 agreed that increases in temperature should be stabilised

at a maximum of 2°C by 2100. Notably, the 39 member states of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS)

have called in a recent Declaration to the United Nations for a new climate change agreement that would

ensure global warming to be kept at a maximum of 1.5°C; (AOSIS, 2009).

So far, the European Union is the only region in the world with a legally binding target for emission

reductions, imposed on the largest polluters. Some individual countries are taking action, such as the

Australian Government’s comprehensive long-term plan for tackling climate change and securing a clean

energy future. The plan outlines the existing policies already underway to address climate change and cut

carbon pollution and introduces several critical new initiatives and has four pillars: a carbon price;

renewable energy; energy efficiency; and action on land. As a group, AOSIS member states account for less

than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions (UN-OHRLLS, 2009). However, according to a recent report of

the IPCC the projected impacts of global climate change on the Caribbean region are expected to be

devastating (IPCC, 2007c).

An analysis of the vulnerability of CARICOM nations to SLR and associated storm surge by The CARIBSAVE

Partnership in 2010 found that large areas of the Caribbean coast are highly susceptible to erosion and

beaches have experienced accelerated erosion in recent decades. It is estimated that with a 1 m SLR and a

conservative estimate of associated erosion, 49% of the major tourism resorts in CARICOM countries would

be damaged or destroyed. Erosion associated with a 2 m SLR (or a high estimate for a 1 m SLR), would

result in an additional 106 resorts (or 60% of the region’s coastal resorts) being at risk. Importantly, the

beach assets so critical to tourism would be affected much earlier than the erosion damages to tourism

infrastructure, affecting property values and the competitiveness of many destinations. Beach nesting sites

for sea turtles were also at significant risk to beach erosion associated with SLR, with 51% significantly

affected by erosion from 1 m SLR and 62% by erosion associated with 2 m SLR (Simpson et al., 2010).

In real terms, the threats posed to the region’s development prospects are severe and it is now accepted

that adaptation will require a sizeable and sustained investment of resources. Over the last decade alone,

damages from intense climatic conditions have cost the region in excess of half a trillion US dollars (CCCCC,

2009).

Belize has prepared a Policy on Adaptation to Global Climate Change(Government of Belize, 2008) that

encourages all agencies to explore and access the opportunities being developed by the climate change

negotiation process such as capacity building, new sources of funding and technology transfer. It also

mandates the relevant government agencies to prepare adaptation policy options for their sectors.

Vulnerability and adaptation assessments have been completed for the coastal zone, fisheries and

aquaculture, tourism, agriculture, health and technology. It has been recognised that the land-use and

forestry projects present the greatest opportunity for Belize in terms of receiving financial support for

sustainable development (MONRECI, 2002).

1.1. Climate change impacts on tourism

Direct and indirect climatic impacts: The Caribbean’s tourism resources, the primary one being the climate

itself, are all climate sensitive. When beaches and other natural resources undergo negatives changes as a

result of climate and meteorological events, this can affect the appeal of a destination – particularly if these

systems are slow to recover. Further, studies indicate that a shift of attractive climatic conditions for

tourism towards higher latitudes and altitudes is very likely as a result of climate change. Projected

increases in the frequency or magnitude of certain weather and climate extremes (e.g. heat waves,

3

droughts, floods, tropical cyclones) as a result of projected climate change will affect the tourism industry

through increased infrastructure damage, additional emergency preparedness requirements, higher

operating expenses (e.g. insurance, backup water and power systems and evacuations) and business

interruptions (Simpson, Gossling, & Scott, 2008).

In contrast to the varied impacts of a changed climate on tourism, the indirect effects of climate induced

environmental change are likely to be largely negative.

Impacts of mitigation policies on tourist mobility: Scientifically, there is general consensus that ‘serious’

climate policy will be paramount in the transformation of tourism towards becoming climatically

sustainable, as significant technological innovation and behavioural change demand strong regulatory

environments (e.g. Barr, Shaw, Coles, & Prillwitz, 2010; Bows anderson, & Footitt, 2009; Hickman &

Banister, 2007; see also Giddens, 2009). As outlined by (Scott, Peeters, & Gössling, 2010), “serious” would

include the endorsement of national and international mitigation policies by tourism stakeholders, a global

closed emission trading scheme for aviation and shipping, the introduction of significant and constantly

rising carbon taxes on fossil fuels, incentives for low-carbon technologies and transport infrastructure and

ultimately, the development of a vision for a fundamentally different global tourism economy. The

Caribbean is likely to be a casualty of international mitigation policies that discourage long-haul travel.

Pentelow and Scott (Pentelow & Scott, 2010) concluded that a combination of low carbon price and low oil

price would have very little impact on arrivals growth to the Caribbean region through to 2020, with arrivals

1.28% to 1.84% lower than in the business as usual (BAU) scenario (the range attributed to the price

elasticities chosen). The impact of a high carbon price and high oil price scenario was more substantive,

with arrivals 2.97% to 4.29% lower than the 2020 BAU scenario depending on the price elasticity value

used. The study concluded:

It is important to emphasize that the number of arrivals to the region would still be

projected to grow from between 19.7 million to 19.9 million in 2010 to a range of 30.1

million to 31.0 million in 2020 (Pentelow & Scott, 2010).

Indirect societal change impacts: Climate change is believed to pose a risk to future economic growth of

some nations, particularly for those where losses and damages are comparable to a country’s GDP. This

could reduce the means and incentive for long-haul travel and have negative implications for anticipated

future growth in this sector in the Caribbean. Climate change associated security risks have been identified

in a number of regions where tourism is highly important to local-national economies (e.g. Stern, 2006;

Barnett & Adger, 2007; German Advisory Council, 2007; Simpson, Gossling, & Scott, 2008). International

tourists are averse to political instability and social unrest and negative tourism-demand repercussions for

climate change security hotspots, many of which are believed to be in developing nations, are already

evident (Hall, Waugh, Haine, Robbins, & Khatiwala, 2004).

The Policy on Adaptation to Global Climate Change mandates the Ministry of Tourism to look at

vulnerability and adaptation options for the sector; promote initiatives that could benefit from the climate

change flexibility mechanisms and report annually on climate change related activities(Government of

Belize, 2008). A tourism vulnerability and adaptation assessment has been completed (Richardson, 2007)

and the findings are referred to within the relevant sectors.

4

2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES

2.1. Geography and climate

The Central American country of Belize is bordered to the north by Mexico and the south and west by

Guatemala and has a total land area of 22,960 km2 split between the mainland (95%) and over 1,060 islands

(MONRECI, 2002). The border with Guatemala has never been formalized, but some progress was made in

2008 when both countries signed an agreement to refer the issue to the International Commission of

Jurists, but this agreement must first be ratified by referenda in both countries (Halcrow Group Limited,

2010).The original capital, Belize City has been repeatedly devastated by hurricanes due to its exposure on

the low-lying, northern coast. Costly re-builds have led to the creation of a new capital city at Belmopan, 50

miles inland with the aim of encouraging the relocation of the main population centre to the new location

(GFDRR, 2010).

The country is primarily flat and low-lying with large sections of coastline less than 1 m above sea level and

for several kilometres inland. These areas are largely calcareous. The highest point is found in the central

Maya Mountain / Mountain Pine Ridge at 1,124 m, which consists of granites and metamorphic rocks

(MONRECI, 2002). Oil was first discovered in 2005 at Spanish Lookout, just to the north-west of the central

highlands (Belize Natural Energy Ltd, 2010). Other mineral reserves include limestone and dolomite,

currently used for road-stone and agricultural purposes (MONRECI, 2002).

Most rivers flow from west to east through low-lying, often swampy, coastal plains (Halcrow Group Limited,

2010). The Belize Barrier Reef located offshore is the second longest barrier reef in the world and lies

mostly in Belizean territorial waters (MONRECI, 2002). It is the reef and cay system that lies at the centre of

the country’s tourist industry offering diving and water sports (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010).

Despite increasing land pressures from agriculture over 70% of the country remains under natural

vegetation cover and there is an extensive system of protected areas that accounts for 33.4% of the

country. The vegetation found is moist, wet subtropical forest with savannahs and pine on some granite

areas. There are also large wetland areas and coastal plains with mangroves (MONRECI, 2002). Large scale

agriculture consists of bananas, citrus and sugar cane and is concentrated in the low-lying areas with quite

distinct geographic distributions. Elsewhere most cultivation is small-scale and largely for subsistence

(MONRECI, 2002; Halcrow Group Limited, 2010).

The climate in Belize is typical of the location, being subtropical in the north and increasingly tropical to the

south. Mean temperatures vary from 27°C (max - 30.1°C, min 22.6°C) along the coast to 21°C (max - 25.3°C,

min - 17.7°C) in the hills, with the coldest month being January and the warmest temperatures experienced

in May. Inland, non-elevated stations tend to have more extreme temperatures (20.5°C – 31.3°C) than

coastal stations where the sea breeze moderates the temperature (NMS, n.d.).

Rainfall in Belize varies with location from at least 1,100 mm a year in the north to at least 3,800 mm in the

south; the largest value given for rainfall in the south is 5,500 mm (NMS, n.d.; Forest Department, 2000;

MONRECI, 2002). The rainy season begins in the south in May and reaches the north of the country in June,

continuing through to November (MONRECI, 2002). The driest part of the year is February to April, when

humidity also drops slightly from the typical 80% (MONRECI, 2002).

Wind is typically from the east to south-east all year averaging 5 knots and strongest between March and

July (M. Smith, Belize Hydromet Climate Section, personal communication, May 27, 2011). Belize is hit by a

5

major storm on average every 3 years(GFDRR, 2010) and hurricanes are more frequent in the north

(MONRECI, 2002). Hurricane Mitch (1998), Hurricane Keith (2000), Hurricane Iris (2001), Hurricane Dean

(2007) and Hurricane Richard (2010) have caused major damage (GFDRR, 2010).

2.2. Socio-economic profile

Belize is categorized as a developing country with a small, open economy based primarily on agriculture,

agro-industry, mining and services (mainly tourism) (MONRECI, 2002). The 2010 census calculated the

population at 312,698 with a gender ratio of 50.5:49.5 male to female(Statistical Institute of Belize, 2011).

The urban population was estimated to be 52.3% in 2010 and Belize City is estimated to contain 20% of the

population (ECLAC, 2010a), (GFDRR, 2010) and (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). Belize’s long, low-lying

coastline accommodates approximately 45% of its total population in coastal urban centres that lie

approximately one to two feet below sea level (GFDRR, 2010). The population is culturally diverse with 14%

immigrants from neighbouring Central American countries (MONRECI, 2002) and one fifth of heads of

households not born in Belize (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010).

The vulnerability of the economy was demonstrated in 1994 when the British Garrison that was stationed

in the country withdrew, leading to an immediate reduction in gross domestic expenditure of 5%

(MONRECI, 2002). Natural disasters have also impacted negatively on the economy with reconstruction

after hurricane damage in 2000 and 2001 being blamed for the large fiscal deficits and debt accumulations

that in 2006 required are structuring operation for public debt (GFDRR, 2010). Devastating floods in 2008

impacted the economy in that year and the effects have spilt over into 2009, on top of the global economic

recession that has impacted on key tourism markets (ECLAC, 2010b; CBB, 2010). Table 2.2.1 shows that the

GDP for Belize has grown year-on-year, until 2009 when it stalled with zero growth. This was after a 3.6%

increase in the previous year (CBB, 2010). The fact that Belize has managed to maintain its GDP in 2009

even in light of the global economic crisis makes Belize one of the better performers in the Caribbean, given

the pervasive downturn in the region (ECLAC, 2010b).

Table 2.2.1: Gross Domestic Product for Belize, 2002 - 2009

YEAR Gross Domestic Product In Constant Market Prices, 2000

US $ (millions)

2002 917.9

2003 1,003.4

2004 1,049.8

2005 1,081.6

2006 1,131.9

2007 1,145.7

2008 1,188.9

2009 1,188.5

(Source: ECLAC, 2010a)

The impact of the withdrawal of the British Garrison lent further urgency to the long recognized need to

diversify the market base and as can be seen from the discussion above efforts have been somewhat

successful(MONRECI, 2002). Table 2.2.2 and Figure 2.2.1 show how the different sectors contribute to

overall GDP and it is clear that agriculture, manufacturing (including mining) and the wholesale and retail

trade are the key drivers of the economy. Details on the importance of tourism are given in Section 2.3.

6

Table 2.2.2: Sector contribution to GDP at constant 2000 market prices (BZ $ million).

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Agriculture, hunting & forestry

181.6 178.0 183.9 212.4 237.6 235.5 233.7 230.4 232.1 220.2

Fishing 62.2 64.9 60.3 126.9 133.8 146.9 124.4 53.5 52.0 56.9

Manufacturing (incl. mining and quarrying)

168.2 167.4 169.3 168.6 187.5 179.9 234.8 254.2 268.2 286.7

Construction 82.8 83.9 87.0 71.5 74.7 72.0 70.6 68.5 93.0 110.5

Wholesale & retail trade

270.5 290.2 301.8 306.1 306.1 322.6 326.6 332.9 347.7 323.0

Hotels & restaurants 58.5 66.4 68.0 77.9 84.4 88.1 87.5 91.4 87.2 83.3

Electricity & Water 58.4 58.6 60.2 65.3 64.3 64.0 90.4 92.5 95.4 111.7

(Source: CBB, 2005; CBB, 2010; Halcrow Group Limited, 2010)

Figure 2.2.1: Sector contribution to GDP (%)

The relative contribution from the wholesale and retail trade has declined during the last decade with a

period of some stability between 2004 and 2008. Activity has contracted in 2009 as a result of a fall-off in

cross border trade with Mexico via the commercial free zone and weak domestic consumption due to

reduced remittance inflows and increased unemployment (ECLAC, 2010b; CBB, 2010).

As described above, the primary agricultural crops in Belize are citrus, banana and sugar cane, but with only

33% of the land (6,880 km2) suitable for agriculture and half of that needing careful management there are

increasing pressures on land-use (MONRECI, 2002). In the 1990s agriculture accounted for 30% of the

economy and employed 40% of the workforce (Forest Department, 2000), but it now accounts for about

10% of GDP (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). Performance in the sector in 2009 declined because of

continuing impacts from the floods in 2008, especially on the major export crops and improvements in

grain production (rice and corn) was insufficient to offset this decline (ECLAC, 2010b; CBB, 2010). Banana

production decreased by 15% between 2003 and 2007, while cane production in 2007/08 was over 20%

lower compared with 2006/07 (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010).

Fishing has had considerable variations in fortunes over the last decade with rapid growth in 2003 following

the introduction of a resistant strain of farmed shrimp and an increase in the active pond acreage, which

resulted in a doubling of the farmed shrimp output(CBB, 2004). In 2007 the aquaculture industry went

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

% c

on

trib

uti

on

to

GD

P

Agriculture, hunting & forestry Fishing

Manufacturing (incl. mining & quarrying) Construction

Wholesale & retail trade Hotels & restaurants

Electricity & Water

7

bankrupt (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010), but is now showing signs of recovery with the increase in

contribution in 2009 attributable to increased production of farmed shrimp and conch(ECLAC, 2010b).

Contributions from manufacturing have exhibited strong growth since 2005 when the first economically

viable oil wells were identified at Spanish Lookout (Belize Natural Energy Ltd, 2010). This increase in

contribution from the manufacturing sector is the main structural shift in the economy in recent times

(Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). There was a levelling off in oil production in 2007 and 2008, but a 24.3%

expansion in petroleum production to 1,608,864 barrels, an average of 4,390 barrels a day, was achieved in

2009 as three additional wells were brought on line (ECLAC, 2010b). Petroleum remains the main export

earner and is expected to increase by a further 2.0% in 2010 with the stabilisation of output from the

Spanish Lookout field and the start-up of pumping from the Never Delay field in the latter half of the year

(CBB, 2010). The remote location of the oil fields means that there is a limited multiplier effect in the wider

economy (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). Other areas of manufacturing include sugar and molasses, which

improved in 2009 despite a smaller tonnage of cane, because dry weather had increased the sucrose

content and purity of the crop. Manufacture of juices was reduced by 2.5%, but by-product production of

citrus oil and pulp increased by 17.5% and 58.2% respectively. Production of soft drinks, beer and fertiliser

declined, while that of cigarettes and flour expanded (CBB, 2010).

Construction and the utilities have contributed to stabilizing the economy in 2009 with both showing

growth (18.8% and 17.1% respectively). Construction has been driven by primarily private sector credit in

San Pedro, the Cayes and to a lesser extent, Placencia, which, due to their location, meant there was a

limited multiplier impact on the wider economy (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). Diversification in domestic

electricity production with the addition of generation capacity from a local shrimp farm and the start of

operations from Belize Sugar Industries (BSI) cogeneration plant were responsible for the growth in the

utilities sector (CBB, 2010). It is anticipated that further growth will be seen in 2010 with a 32.0% increase

in domestic electricity generation as the cogeneration plant and Vaca Dam hydroelectric plant add some 25

Megawatt hours (MWh) to national capacity(CBB, 2010).

As a consequence of the economic downturn in 2009, the unemployment rate increased from 8.2% (May

2008) to 13.1% (April 2009), with an 11.2% expansion in the labour force outpacing a 5.3% growth in jobs

(CBB, 2010).There was however a slight recovery towards the end of the year with unemployment at 12.6%

by September 2009 (ECLAC, 2010b). Female participation has gradually increased from 30% of the labour

force in 1994 to 41% in 1998 and 47% in 2009, indicating that there are increased opportunities for women

to work (MONRECI, 2002; Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). The level of female unemployment has also

proved more volatile implying that women are more likely to be affected during economic downturns

(Halcrow Group Limited, 2010).

The services sector provides almost two-thirds of jobs in Belize (80% of female employment) with the retail

sector alone providing one-fifth of all jobs (23% for women and 17% for men). Agriculture accounts for 26%

of male employment and about one fifth of all employment, which is a significant decline from the situation

in 2000. Construction accounts for 12% of male employment (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). The economic

slowdown had affected employment in the textile industry (74% decline), oil industry (48% decline), citrus

farming (45% decline) and fishing (34% decline). Areas of growth include banana cultivation, construction

and service industries (excluding tourism) (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010).

In 1994, 25% of households were considered poor and 10% extremely poor (MONRECI, 2002). According to

the April 2009 Living Standards Measurement Survey the level of indigence in Belize had increased to 15.8%

and poverty to 25.5% with 13.8% considered vulnerable to poverty making a total of 55.1% of the

population poor or vulnerable (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). The survey also showed that 29% of poor

8

heads of household are employed suggesting that although working they are not earning enough to

support their household (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). In 1994 severe poverty was most common

amongst the recent Central American immigrants and the Maya communities (MONRECI, 2002), this

remained true in the 2009 study with Mayans accounting for 34% of the indigent population and Mestizos

for 40% (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010).

The increase in poverty and indigence has been blamed on the higher unemployment described above; the

reduction in value of production of major crops like sugar cane, bananas and fishing; the global economic

recession; and impacts from Hurricane Dean in 2007 and the floods in 2008. It is noted that these are

largely caused by external factors outside the control of the Government such as reductions in preferential

quotas by the European Union (EU), the global economic recession and natural disasters. The result is that

although there has been a gradual increase in GDP, real per capita income has barely increased since

2003(Halcrow Group Limited, 2010).

This high level of poverty is a key concern for the Government of Belize which faces a number of issues

including high spending on social services (1/3 of budget in early 2000s); unsustainably high levels of public

debt, which consumes increasingly greater portions of national income1; limited access to capital2;trade

uncertainty because of free trade policies and the erosion of trade pacts enforced by the World Trade

Organisation (MONRECI, 2002; Richardson, 2007). The population across the country is vulnerable because

of the relative lack of transport and flood protection infrastructure; high levels of poverty; concentration of

urban centres in low-lying coastal areas; high levels of linguistic and cultural diversity; and poor access to

information and health care (GFDRR, 2010). These factors combined mean that Belize has limited capacity

to adapt any sector to the impacts of climate change including tourism (Richardson, 2007).

2.3. Importance of tourism to the national economy

Caribbean tourism is based on the natural environment and the region’s countries are known primarily as

beach destinations. The tourism product therefore depends on favourable weather conditions as well as on

an attractive and healthy natural environment, particularly in the coastal zone. Both of these are

threatened by climate change. The Caribbean is the most tourism-dependent region in the world with few

options to develop alternative economic sectors and is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to

the impacts of climate change including SLR, coastal erosion, flooding, biodiversity loss and impacts on

human health.

Belize has completed a vulnerability and capacity assessment for the tourism sector in which it is

acknowledged that as a tropical, coastal nation, Belize is highly vulnerable to variable climate and weather

patterns as well as tropical cyclones. This vulnerability is particularly relevant for the tourism sector, given

the small scale and nature-based character of tourism in Belize and stems from three bio-geophysical

impacts:

1The 2007 debt re-structuring created a temporary reduction in the debt burden until 2019 and enabled government spending on

social sectors to increase in the last 3 years. This situation is, however, likely to be threatened by the current deterioration in the economic situation, which has resulted in a decrease in government revenues while debt repayments still need to increase (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). 2Transparency International rates countries on a scale of 10 for its Corruption Perceptions Index (www.transparency.org). Belize’s

score has declined from 4.5 in 2003 to 2.9 in 2008. Scoring less than 3 out of ten indicates rampant corruption. The perception that corruption has increased substantially since 2003 is arguably a more serious issue than its current ranking (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010).

9

Rising sea levels pose risks for flooding, inundation, saltwater intrusion and erosion, which threaten

water supplies, infrastructure and coastal areas (the offshore cays and atolls of Belize rarely exceed

3-4 m above sea level).

Warmer sea water threatens the coral reefs along the coast of Belize that comprise the longest

barrier reef in the western hemisphere and attract thousands of tourists (80%) for snorkelling and

scuba diving activities.

Warmer sea surface temperatures are associated with increasing frequency and intensity of

tropical cyclones or hurricanes, which threaten coastal settlements and infrastructure (25.3% of

tourism businesses on Ambergris Caye and 45.7% of tourism businesses in the Cayo District lack

insurance protection against natural disasters).

Based on present spending levels, it is estimated that 45% to 70% of the tourism sector is highly vulnerable

to the effects of climate change. At current spending levels, this corresponds to BZ $180 to BZ $280 million

(or US $90 to $140 million) and is related to the proportion of tourism that is centred on the cays, atolls and

coastal zones (Richardson, 2007).

Although tourism only contributes about 4% of GDP, Figure 2.2.1, it is one of the most important sectors for

Belize, representing approximately 25% of Belize’s foreign exchange. Over the last 20 years, the tourism

industry has created employment and professional development for many Belizeans and is a key driver of

foreign investment and an important source of tax revenues that help to finance the nation’s infrastructure

(BTB, 2010).

The industry has developed around small-scale, adventure or nature-based recreation activities with the

second-largest barrier reef system in the world, numerous limestone caves and tropical rainforests

providing the attractions. Development of the islands of Ambergris Caye, Caye Caulker and the coastal

village of Placencia provide accessibility for visitors interested in snorkelling, underwater diving, deep sea

fishing and other water-based recreation activities. The small size of the country allows for tourists to visit

both coastal / island and inland destinations within a small time frame. The popularity of cave tours in the

Cayo district has flourished, but only less than half of visitors reported that they visited inland attractions.

More recently there has been significant resort and hotel development in the town of San Pedro making it

the country’s largest tourist destination and a destination for foreign retirees and migrant expatriates. The

scale of development of hotels, resorts and other infrastructure generally reflects the ecotourism niche

(Richardson, 2007). In 2008, there were 620 hotels with 6,536 rooms, which illustrates the small-scale

nature of tourism in Belize (average property size is 10.5 rooms and 67% of hotels have between 1 and 10

rooms) (BTB, 2009; Caribbean Tourism Organisation, n.d.).

Table 2.3.1 shows the patterns of tourist arrivals over the last decade and is shown graphically in Figure

2.3.1. Stopover visitors have increased steadily over the last decade until 2007, when numbers started to

fall. In 2009 there was a 5.6% decline in stay-over tourist arrivals and a fall in the number of nights spent in

the country, which resulted in a 4.5% decline in the hotels & restaurants sector in 2009 (CBB, 2010; ECLAC,

2010b).

10

Table 2.3.1: Visitor Arrivals to Belize and expenditure 2000 - 2009

Year Stopovers Cruise Ship Passengers

Cruise Ship calls Expenditure

(BZ $ million)

2000 195,766 58,131 70 240.1

2001 195,955 48,116 48 241.0

2002 199,521 319,690 200 265.6

2003 220,574 575,196 315 311.4

2004 230,832 851,436 406 345.3

2005 236,573 800,333 370 349.4

2006 247,309 655,931 295 398.8

2007 251,422 624,128 278 567.2

2008 245,008 597,370 274 545.1

2009 232,383 705,219 284 501.9

(Source: BTB, 2009; Richardson, 2007; CBB, 2010; Caribbean Tourism Organisation, n.d.)

Figure 2.3.1: Arrivals and expenditure

The cruise industry really developed in 2002, peaking in 2004 before levelling between 2006 and 2009.

Cruise ship disembarkations rose by 18.1% in 2009, a turnaround from the contractions of 4.1% and 5.1%

recorded in 2008 and 2007, respectively. The improvement resulted from the diversion of some ships from

Mexico to Belize because of the A(H1N1) influenza (swine flu) scare and an aggressive marketing drive by

the cruise ship industry to counter the economic slowdown(CBB, 2010). The combined expenditure from

both groups grew rapidly to 2007 before dropping in 2008 and 2009; a reflection of the fall-off in stopovers.

During the first quarter of 2010, however, stay-over and cruise passenger visitors were up by 3.7% and

43.5% respectively, pointing to some recovery in the sector(ECLAC, 2010b).

The key markets in 2009 were the US (60.1%), Europe (12.7% - mostly UK) and Canada (7.4%) (Caribbean

Tourism Organisation, n.d.) and the drop in arrivals in 2009 is primarily the result of weakened demand

from the US market(ECLAC, 2010b) in response to the recession in that country and the A(H1N1) influenza

travel scare. It’s considered likely that bleak employment conditions in the US economy will continue to

depress tourism activity in the stay-over market, even in the light of the small improvement mentioned

above(CBB, 2010).

The economic impact of tourism in Belize is most readily evidenced by its contribution to employment of

Belizean citizens. Hotel employment of Belizean nationals alone has more than doubled in the last decade

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Stopovers (thousands) Cruise Ship Passengers (thousands)

Cruise Ship calls Expenditure (Bz $ million)

11

with hotels employing a total of 6,471 people in 2008, 81.7% of whom were Belizean nationals. This

represents a decrease of 1.7% on the 2007 figure and the first decrease since 2002 (BTB, 2009). The

downturn in tourist arrivals in 2009 has resulted in an even greater decline in employment with a decrease

of 26% (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). There are 222 tour operators and 976 registered tour guides (BTB,

2009). The sector provides employment for 15% of the employed females and 8% of the employed males

in the country, accounting for 10.6% of the total workforce in 2009(Halcrow Group Limited, 2010).However,

it has been a male dominated industry since 2000 with 59.9% of the tourism workforce being male and

40.1% female(BTB, 2009). Of those people employed in the sector 22% are poor or indigent (Halcrow Group

Limited, 2010).

The Government of Belize recognizes the importance of the tourism industry in Belize and has approved a

BZ $13.3 million loan to support the Sustainable Tourism Program (STP) through the Ministry of Tourism,

Civil Aviation and Culture. The goal is to contribute to national economic growth that is environmentally

and socially responsible, supporting overnight destinations and national capacity for destination planning

and management. The Belize Tourist Board (BTB) Action Plan outlines the marketing, destination planning,

quality assurance and administration changes that will be required to effectively reposition Belize in the

marketplace with existing resources (BTB, 2010). In 2009, the Belize Tourism Board (BTB) intensified its

marketing campaign highlighting Belize’s diversity, strengthening its presence at trade shows, focussing on

Europe and the emerging markets of Mexico and Central America and courting key airline marketing groups

aiming to obtain an increase in airlift as well as more affordable packages for consumers. Attempts were

also made to boost domestic tourism with a marketing campaign entitled “I am Belize” that sought to build

public awareness of the industry (CBB, 2010).

A project to build the in-country capacity of tourism operators to deliver quality services was launched in

2009 to teach wholesalers and travel agents about Belize and how to sell Belize. Work to enhance the

physical infrastructure and improve the quality of visitors’ stay in the country continued with the paving of

the Placencia road and the commencement of the sustainable tourism project which saw the development

of the Belize City Waterfront Strategy (CBB, 2010).

During 2010, major developments in the tourism industry were expected to include:

a) The commencement of the San Pedro Sunset Boardwalk and Belize City Pedestrian Link.

b) Establishment of a Tourism Investment office in conjunction with Belize Trade and Investment

Development Service (BELTRAIDE).

c) Construction of a Placencia cruise visitor facility.

d) Expected commencement of the Municipal Airport Development Project to upgrade all municipal

airports.

e) Negotiations by the Aviation Development Committee to attract low cost carriers for direct flights

into Western Canada and the US East coast.

f) The continuation of the paving of the Placencia road.

g) Implementation of the border improvement project to renovate all major ports of entry.

Some of the recommendations put forward for the tourism sector in the Vulnerability and Capacity

Assessment include:

Modifying tourism marketing strategies to promote inland attractions, such as limestone caves,

tropical rainforests and Mayan archaeological sites, in an effort to further diversify the tourism

portfolio.

12

Increase education and public awareness of the vulnerability to climate change, both in the public

sector as well as among private businesses. Those business survey respondents, who indicated that

they had not considered the potential impacts of climate change in their business plans or

strategies, cited a lack of expertise, knowledge and technology as their reasons. Responses to many

of the survey questions revealed insufficient awareness and understanding of climate change and

its potential impacts, which underscores the need for greater education and outreach (Richardson,

2007).

13

3. CLIMATE MODELLING

3.1. Introduction to Climate Modelling Results

This summary of climate change information for Belize is derived from a combination of recently observed

climate data sources and climate model projections of future scenarios using both a General Circulation

Model (GCM) ensemble of 15 models and the Regional Climate Model (RCM), PRECIS.

General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide global simulations of future climate under prescribed

greenhouse gas scenarios. These models are proficient in simulating the large scale circulation patterns

and seasonal cycles of the world’s climate, but operate at coarse spatial resolution (grid boxes are typically

around 2.5 degrees latitude and longitude). This limited resolution hinders the ability for the model to

represent the finer scale characteristics of a region’s topography and many of the key climatic processes

which determine its weather and climate characteristics. Over the Caribbean, this presents significant

problems as most of the small islands are too small to feature as a land mass at GCM resolution.

Regional Climate Models (RCMS), which have been used in the CCCRA, are often nested in GCMs to

simulate the climate at a finer spatial scale over a small region of the world, acting to ‘downscale’ the GCM

projections and provide a better physical representation of the local climate of that region. RCMs enable

the investigation of climate changes at a sub-GCM-grid scale, as such changes in the dynamic climate

processes at a community scale or tourist destination can be projected.

For each of a number of climate variables (average temperature, average rainfall, average wind speed,

relative humidity, sea-surface temperature, sunshine hours, extreme temperatures and extreme rainfalls)

the results of GCM multi-model projections under three emissions scenarios at the country scale and RCM

simulations from single model driven by two different GCMs for a single emissions scenario at the

destination scale, are examined. Where available, observational data sources are drawn upon to identify

changes that are already occurring in the climate, at both the country and destination scale.

In this study, RCM simulations from PRECIS, driven by two different GCMs (ECHAM4 and HadCM3) are used

to look at projected climate for each country and at the community level. Combining the results of GCM

and RCM experiments allows the use of high-resolution RCM projections in the context of the uncertainty

margins that the 15-model GCM ensemble provides.

The following projections are based on the IPCC standard ‘marker’ scenarios – A2 (a ‘high’ emissions

scenario), A1B (a medium high scenario, where emissions increase rapidly in the earlier part of the century

but then plateau in the second half) and B1 (a ‘low’ emissions scenario). Climate projections are examined

under all three scenarios from the multi-model GCM ensemble, but at present, results from the regional

models are only available for scenario A2. Table 3.1.1 outlines the time line on which various temperature

thresholds are projected to be reached under the various scenarios according to the IPCC.

14

Table 3.1.1: Earliest and latest years respectively at which the threshold temperatures are exceeded in the 41 projections*

SRES Scenario

1.5C Threshold 2.0C Threshold 2.5C Threshold

Earliest Latest Earliest Latest Earliest Latest

A1B 2023 2050 2038 2070 2053 Later than 2100

A2 2024 2043 2043 2060 2056 2077

B1 2027 2073 2049 Later than 2100 2068 Later than 2100 *NB: In some cases the threshold is not reached prior to 2100, the latest date for which the projections are available.

The potential changes in hurricane and tropical storm frequency and intensity, SLR and storm surge

incidence are also examined for the Caribbean region. For these variables, existing material in the

literature is examined in order to assess the potential changes affecting the tourist destinations.

3.2. Temperature

Observations from the gridded temperature datasets indicate that mean annual temperatures over Belize

have increased at an average rate of 0.11˚C per decade over the period 1960 - 2006. The observed

increases have been more rapid in the seasons JJA and SON at the rate of 0.15˚C and 0.16˚C per decade

respectively.

General Circulation Model (GCM) projections from a 15-model ensemble indicate that Belize can be

expected to warm by 0.8˚C to 2.3˚C by the 2050s and 1.0˚C to 4.1˚C by the 2080s, relative to the 1970 -

1999 mean. The range of projections across the 15 models for any one emissions scenario spans around 1.5

- 2˚C. Projected mean temperature increase is similar throughout the year.

Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections indicate much more rapid increases in temperatures over Belize

compared to the GCM ensemble median projections for the A2 scenario. RCM projections indicate

increases of 3.6˚C and 3.5˚C in mean annual temperatures by the 2080s, when driven by the ECHAM4 and

HadCM3 respectively, compared with GCM ensemble projections of 2.3 - 4.1˚C for that period.

The improved spatial resolution in the RCM allows the land mass of the larger Caribbean islands to be

represented, whilst the region is represented only by ‘ocean’ grid boxes at GCM resolution. Land surfaces

warm more rapidly than ocean due to their lower capacity to absorb heat energy and therefore more rapid

warming is seen over Belize in RCM projections than in GCMs.

15

Table 3.2.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature for Belize.

Belize: Country Scale Changes in Temperature

Observed Mean

1970-99

Observed Trend 1960-2006

Projected changes by the 2020s

Projected changes by the

2050s


Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max

(˚C) (change in ˚C per

decade)

Change in ˚C Change in ˚C Change in ˚C

A2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.3 3.3 4.1

Annual 24.9 0.11* A1B 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.1 2 2.1 1.6 2.7 3.6

B1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.9 1 1.8 2.5

A2 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.4 2.3 2.1 2.8 4

DJF 22.8 0.07 A1B 0.5 0.7 1.2 1 1.6 2.3 1.3 2.3 3.6

B1 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 0.9 1.5 2.5

A2 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.8 2.6 2.2 3.2 4.1

MAM 25.7 0.07 A1B 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.9 2.5 1.5 2.7 3.5

B1 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.8 1.4 1.8 1 1.9 2.4

A2 0.5 1 1.4 1.2 2.1 2.7 2.5 3.6 4.4

JJA 26.1 0.15* A1B 0.4 1.1 1.8 1.3 2.2 2.6 1.8 2.9 4

B1 0.4 1 1.4 1 1.5 2 1.1 2 2.9

A2 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.8 2.5 2.4 3.4 4.1

SON 24.9 0.16* A1B 0.4 1 1.4 1.1 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.7 3.6

B1 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 1.1 1.6 2.7

Table 3.2.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Belize under the A2 scenario.

Projected changes by the 2080s SRES A2

Min Median Max

Change in ˚C

GCM Ensemble Range 2.3 3.3 4.1 Annual RCM (ECHAM4)

3.6

RCM (HadCM3)

3.5 GCM Ensemble Range 2.1 2.8 4

DJF RCM (ECHAM4)

3 RCM (HadCM3)

3.4

GCM Ensemble Range 2.2 3.2 4.1 MAM RCM (ECHAM4)

3.7

RCM (HadCM3)

3.4 GCM Ensemble Range 2.5 3.6 4.4

JJA RCM (ECHAM4)

3.9 RCM (HadCM3)

3.7

GCM Ensemble Range 2.4 3.4 4.1 SON RCM (ECHAM4)

3.9

RCM (HadCM3)

3.6

3.3. Precipitation

Gridded observations of rainfall over Belize do not show statistically significant trends over the period 1960

- 2006. Long-term trends are difficult to identify due to the large inter-annual variability in rainfall in Belize.

16

GCM projections of future rainfall for Belize span both overall increases and decreases with wide variations,

but tend towards decreases in more models. Projected rainfall changes in annual rainfall range from -28 to

+10 mm per month (-60% to +13%) by the 2080s across three emissions scenarios. The overall decreases in

annual rainfall projected by GCMs occur largely through decreased MAM and JJA rainfall. Rainfall

projections are less consistent between models.

RCM projections of rainfall for Belize are strongly influenced by the driving GCM providing boundary

conditions, but both RCMs indicate decreases in precipitation under the A2 scenario. Proportional changes

projected by the RCM driven by HadCM3 are generally lower than ECHAM4-driven simulations. Driven by

ECHAM4, RCM rainfall projections indicate decreases in all seasons with a change of 8 mm (-32%) in total

annual rainfall. When driven by HadCM3, RCM projects large deceases in all seasons with a change of 37

mm (-26%) in total annual rainfall.

Table 3.3.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation for Belize.

Belize: Country Scale Changes in Precipitation

Observed Mean

1970-99

Observed Trend

1960-2006





(mm per month)

(change in mm per decade)

Change in mm per month



A2 -17 -2 5 -25 -6 6 -28 -11 -3

Annual 172.7 -3.2 A1B -21 -2 8 -24 -7 12 -25 -8 8

B1 -17 -3 9 -18 -5 1 -13 -7 10

A2 -9 -4 1 -21 -4 4 -20 -8 3

DJF 111.1 -2.6 A1B -13 -3 3 -19 -3 7 -20 -7 8

B1 -13 -3 4 -19 -3 7 -10 -4 4

A2 -19 -2 21 -21 -5 14 -32 -9 -2

MAM 74.6 -0.3 A1B -18 -1 5 -16 -5 2 -31 -5 16

B1 -13 -2 34 -20 -2 2 -21 -3 8

A2 -24 -5 11 -45 -16 15 -64 -28 2

JJA 267.3 -7.2 A1B -39 -8 12 -47 -15 18 -46 -26 -2

B1 -52 -9 7 -41 -9 20 -31 -8 23

A2 -48 0 17 -41 -4 40 -39 -7 45

SON 237.1 -2.3 A1B -27 -1 24 -44 2 55 -60 -3 64

B1 -31 -2 28 -39 -2 37 -23 -5 25

17



Min Median Max

Change in mm

GCM Ensemble Range -28 -11 -3 Annual RCM (ECHAM4)

-8

RCM (HadCM3)

-37 GCM Ensemble Range -20 -8 3

DJF RCM (ECHAM4)

-10 RCM (HadCM3)

-21

GCM Ensemble Range -32 -9 -2 MAM RCM (ECHAM4)

-5

RCM (HadCM3)


JJA RCM (ECHAM4)

-13 RCM (HadCM3)

-67

GCM Ensemble Range -39 -7 45 SON RCM (ECHAM4)

-3

RCM (HadCM3)

-42

Table 3.3.3: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation (%) for Belize.

Belize: Country Scale Changes in Precipitation

Observed Mean

1970-99

Observed Trend

1960-2006





(mm per month)

(change in % per

decade)

% Change % Change % Change

A2 -31 -4 4 -40 -9 9 -60 -17 -1

Annual 172.7 -1.9 A1B -21 -5 6 -28 -9 16 -55 -13 11

B1 -23 -8 11 -40 -8 1 -47 -9 13

A2 -21 -6 2 -23 -7 11 -52 -14 3

DJF 111.1 -2.4 A1B -17 -4 10 -24 -9 14 -40 -11 16

B1 -28 -6 10 -22 -8 14 -25 -8 4

A2 -40 -9 16 -58 -19 10 -61 -28 -7

MAM 74.6 -0.4 A1B -28 -8 6 -45 -12 15 -50 -30 12

B1 -40 -6 25 -45 -9 17 -53 -21 7

A2 -64 -9 12 -64 -16 7 -84 -33 1

JJA 267.3 -2.7 A1B -36 -13 9 -58 -16 7 -83 -33 -4

B1 -46 -16 21 -68 -11 8 -77 -8 28

A2 -31 -1 11 -28 -3 37 -48 -4 29

SON 237.1 -1 A1B -19 -2 15 -28 1 36 -39 -1 41

B1 -20 -3 17 -45 -1 24 -33 -9 16

18



Min Median Max

% Change

GCM Ensemble Range -60 -17 -1 Annual RCM (ECHAM4)

-32

RCM (HadCM3)


DJF RCM (ECHAM4)

-32 RCM (HadCM3)

-25

GCM Ensemble Range -61 -28 -7 MAM RCM (ECHAM4)

-19

RCM (HadCM3)


JJA RCM (ECHAM4)

-62 RCM (HadCM3)

-37

GCM Ensemble Range -48 -4 29 SON RCM (ECHAM4)

-16

RCM (HadCM3)

-30

3.4. Wind Speed

The available observations are insufficient to determine trends in winds speeds around Belize.

Mean wind speeds over Belize generally show a very small increase in GCM projections. Projected changes

in annual average wind speed range between -0.1 and +0.6 ms-1 by the 2080s across the three emission

scenarios. Both increases and decreases are seen in all seasons across the 15-model ensemble.

RCM projections based on two driving GCMs lie within the range of changes indicated by the GCM

ensemble, but are higher than the GCM median projections. RCM simulations project increases in wind

speeds in all seasons by the 2080s under the A2 scenario. The RCM projected increase in the mean annual

wind speeds is 0.4 ms-1 when driven by ECHAM4 and 0.6 ms-1 when driven by HadCM3.

19

Table 3.4.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in wind speed for Belize.

Belize: Country Scale Changes in Wind Speed

Observed Mean

1970-99

Observed Trend

1960-2006





(ms-1

) (change in ms

-1 per

decade)

Change in ms-1

Change in ms-1

Change in ms-1

A2 -0.1 0 0.1 0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6

Annual 5.6

A1B -0.1 0.1 0.2 0 0.1 0.3 0 0.2 0.4

B1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3

A2 -0.2 0 0.3 -0.2 0 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.3

DJF 5.5

A1B -0.2 0.1 0.3 0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3

B1 -0.1 0 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2

A2 -0.1 0 0.3 0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.6

MAM 5.6

A1B -0.1 0.1 0.3 0 0.1 0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.4

B1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0 0.1 0.3 0 0.2 0.2

A2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0 0.4 0.8

JJA 6

A1B -0.2 0 0.4 0 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.9

B1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.5

A2 -0.2 0 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.6

SON 5.3 0.09 A1B -0.1 0 0.1 -0.2 0 0.1 -0.2 0 0.5

B1 -0.1 0 0.1 -0.3 0 0.1 -0.2 0 0.2



Min Median Max

Change in ms-1

GCM Ensemble Range 0.1 0.3 0.6 Annual RCM (ECHAM4)

0.4

RCM (HadCM3)

0.6 GCM Ensemble Range -0.2 0.1 0.3

DJF RCM (ECHAM4)

0.2 RCM (HadCM3)

0.2

GCM Ensemble Range 0.1 0.3 0.6 MAM RCM (ECHAM4)

0.5

RCM (HadCM3)

0.5 GCM Ensemble Range 0 0.4 0.8

JJA RCM (ECHAM4)

0.6 RCM (HadCM3)

1.3

GCM Ensemble Range -0.2 0.1 0.6 SON RCM (ECHAM4)

0.4

RCM (HadCM3)

0.5

3.5. Relative Humidity

Observations from the HadCRUH show statistically significant decreasing trend in relative humidity over the

period 1973 - 2003 in Belize only in the MAM season (-0.47% per decade).

20

Relative humidity data has not been made available for all models in the 15-model ensemble. From the

available data, the GCM median projections indicate decreases in RH (by 1-2%) in all seasons.

RCM projections indicate relatively large decreases in RH compared to the GCM median projections in all

seasons over Belize. The RCM projects a decrease in mean annual RH of 2.9% when driven by EHCAM4 and

that of 5.1% when driven by HadCM3 by the 2080s under the A2 scenario whereas the GCM predicts a

decrease of 1.3%.

The representation of the land surface in climate models becomes very important when considering

changes in relative humidity under a warmer climate. This factor is reflected when GCMs and RCMs

projections are compared.

Table 3.5.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in relative humidity for Belize.

Belize: Country Scale Changes in Relative Humidity

Observed Mean

1970-99

Observed Trend

1960-2006





(%) (change in % per

decade)

Change in % Change in % Change in %

A2

-0.4

-0.8

-1.3 Annual 79.4 -0.1 A1B -2 -0.6 -0.3 -2.6 -1.2 -0.6 -4.3 -1.8 -0.8

B1 -2 -0.9 -0.5 -1.7 -1 -0.2 -3.1 -1.2 -0.7

A2

-0.7

-0.9

-1.8 DJF 79.4 0.31 A1B -0.9 -0.4 0.6 -2.4 -0.9 0 -3.8 -2.4 -0.6

B1 -2.8 -0.5 0.1 -1.8 -0.6 -0.3 -2.6 -1.5 -0.3

A2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3 MAM 77.1 -0.47* A1B -2.3 -0.9 0.3 -2.5 -1.5 -0.2 -3.4 -1.8 0.5

B1 -1 -0.7 1 -3.1 -1.1 0.1 -1.7 -1 -0.3

A2

-0.2

-0.9

-1.7 JJA 80 -0.25 A1B -4.7 -1.2 0.3 -5.4 -1.7 -1.2 -7.5 -2.3 -1.1

B1 -4.6 -1.7 -0.6 -2.9 -0.8 0.6 -5.1 -1.4 -0.1

A2

-0.1

-0.5

-1 SON 81.1 0.06 A1B -1.7 -0.7 0.7 -2.6 -0.6 0.5 -4.8 -1.2 0.5

B1 -2.1 -1.1 0.2 -2.2 -0.9 -0.1 -3 -1.2 0.5

21



Min Median Max

Change in %

GCM Ensemble Range

-1.3 Annual RCM (ECHAM4)

-2.9

RCM (HadCM3)

-5.1 GCM Ensemble Range

-1.8

DJF RCM (ECHAM4)

-3.7 RCM (HadCM3)

-4.7

GCM Ensemble Range

-0.3 MAM RCM (ECHAM4)

-2.3

RCM (HadCM3)

-3.8 GCM Ensemble Range

-1.7

JJA RCM (ECHAM4)

-2.8 RCM (HadCM3)

-6.9

GCM Ensemble Range

-1 SON RCM (ECHAM4)

-3

RCM (HadCM3)

-5.1

3.6. Sunshine Hours

The number of ‘sunshine hours’ per day are calculated by applying the average clear-sky fraction from

cloud observations to the number of daylight hours for the latitude of the location and the time of the year.

The observed number of sunshine hours, based on ISCCP satellite observations of cloud coverage, indicates

statistically significant increase only in DJF sunshine hours in Belize by 0.57 hours per decade over the

period 1983 - 2001.

The number of sunshine hours is projected to increase slightly into the 21st Century in Belize by most GCMs,

particularly in the wet season reflecting reduction in average cloud fractions. The model ensemble,

however, spans both increases and decreases in all seasons and across emissions scenarios. Changes in

annual average sunshine hours span -0.2 to +1.1 hours per day by the 2080s under scenario A2. The median

increases projected by the GCM ensemble are large in JJA, with changes spanning -0.8 to +1.9 hours per

day.

Comparison between GCM and RCM projections of sunshine hours for Belize shows that the RCM

projections generally lie toward the higher end of the range of changes projected by the GCM ensemble.

Driven by ECHAM4, the RCM projects 0.4 – 1.1 hour per day increase in sunshine hours by the 2080s across

all seasons. Driven by HadCM3, the RCM projects an increase of 1.4 hours per day in annual sunshine hours

with the largest increase in JJA (2.3 hours per day).

22

Table 3.6.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sunshine hours for Belize.

Belize: Country Scale Changes in Sunshine Hours

Observed Mean

1970-99

Observed Trend 1960-2006





(hrs) (change in hrs per decade)

Change in hrs Change in hrs Change in hrs

A2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 -0.1 0.6 1.1

Annual 4.5 0.1 A1B -0.1 0.2 0.5 0 0.3 0.8 0 0.5 1

B1 -0.2 0.2 0.6 0 0.2 0.7 -0.2 0.3 0.6

A2 0 0.3 0.5 -0.1 0.4 1.1 -0.3 0.6 1.6

DJF 5.8 0.57* A1B -0.4 0.1 0.4 0 0.2 1.2 -0.2 0.4 1.3

B1 -0.3 0.2 0.7 -0.4 0.3 0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.8

A2 -0.3 0.2 0.6 -0.5 0.3 1 -0.6 0.4 1.1

MAM 4.6 -0.05 A1B -0.4 0.2 0.6 -0.8 0.3 1 -0.4 0.2 1

B1 -0.6 0.3 0.8 -0.4 0.1 0.7 -0.3 0.3 1

A2 -0.2 0.2 0.7 -0.4 0.5 1.4 -0.8 1 1.9

JJA 3.4 0.18 A1B -0.3 0.4 1 -0.2 0.6 1.1 -0.1 0.8 1.7

B1 -0.1 0.4 1 -0.3 0.6 1.1 -0.6 0.4 1.5

A2 0 0.1 0.6 -0.4 0.2 0.6 -0.4 0.4 0.9

SON 4.3 -0.35 A1B -0.3 0.1 0.6 -0.3 0 0.8 -0.5 0.3 1

B1 -0.3 0.1 1 -0.2 0.2 1 -0.3 0.2 0.8



Min Median Max

Change in hours

GCM Ensemble Range -0.1 0.6 1.1 Annual RCM (ECHAM4)

0.7

RCM (HadCM3)

1.4 GCM Ensemble Range -0.3 0.6 1.6

DJF RCM (ECHAM4)

1.1 RCM (HadCM3)

1.2

GCM Ensemble Range -0.6 0.4 1.1 MAM RCM (ECHAM4)

0.8

RCM (HadCM3)

0.2 GCM Ensemble Range -0.8 1 1.9

JJA RCM (ECHAM4)

0.6 RCM (HadCM3)

2.3

GCM Ensemble Range -0.4 0.4 0.9 SON RCM (ECHAM4)

0.4

RCM (HadCM3)

1.8

3.7. Sea Surface Temperatures

The HadSST2 gridded dataset does not indicate statistically significant trend in sea-surface temperatures

around Belize over the period 1960 - 2006.

23

GCM projections indicate increases in sea-surface temperatures throughout the year. Projected increases

range between +0.8˚C and +2.7˚C by the 2080s across all three emissions scenarios. The range of

projections under any single emissions scenario spans roughly around 1.0 to 1.5˚C.

Table 3.7.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sea surface temperature for Belize.

Belize: Country Scale Changes in Sea Surface Temperature

Observed Mean 1970-99

Observed Trend

1960-2006





(˚C) (change in ˚C per

decade)

Change in ˚C Change in ˚C Change in ˚C

A2 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.7

Annual 27.8 -0.02 A1B 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.2 2.2 2.6

B1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 1 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.8

A2 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.7

DJF 26.7 -0.04 A1B 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.2 2.1 2.6

B1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 1 1.3 0.8 1.3 1.9

A2 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.7

MAM 27.4 -0.02 A1B 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.4 1.6 1.1 2.2 2.5

B1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.7 1.3 1.7

A2 0.5 0.7 0.7 1 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.5 2.5

JJA 28.8 0 A1B 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.3 2 2.4

B1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 1 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.7

A2 0.5 0.7 1 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.6 2.3 2.8

SON 28.5 -0.01 A1B 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.3 2.3 2.8

B1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 1 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.8

3.8. Temperature Extremes

Extreme hot and cold values are defined by the temperatures that are exceeded on 10% of days in the

‘current’ climate or reference period. This allows us to define ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ relative to the particular

climate of a specific region or season and determine relative changes in extreme events.

The frequency of 'hot' days and 'hot' nights has increased significantly since 1960 in all seasons in Belize.

The frequency of mean annual 'hot' days has increased at the rate of 4.25% hot days per decade with the

strongest increase in JJA (by 4.99% of hot days per decade) between 1960 and 2006. The frequency of

mean annual 'hot' nights has increased by 2.37% of hot nights per decade with the strongest increase in DJF

(by 3.56% of hot nights per decade).

GCM projections indicate increases in the frequency of ‘hot’ days by 23-70% of days and ‘hot’ nights by 35-

80% of nights annually by the 2080s. The rate of increase varies substantially between models and is higher

in JJA compared to other seasons. ‘Cold’ days/nights diminish in frequency, occurring only 0-4% days/nights

in most models by the 2080s.

24

Table 3.8.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature extremes for Belize.

Belize: Country scale changes in Temperature Extremes

Observed Mean

1970-99

Observed Trend

1960-2006





% Frequency

Change in frequency

per decade

Future % frequency Future % frequency

Frequency of Hot Days (TX90p)

A2

25 41 53 34 58 70

Annual 14 4.25* A1B

28 39 51 30 52 62

B1

20 30 44 23 37 48

A2

24 40 51 31 54 72

DJF 12.3 2.76* A1B

25 40 54 26 59 70

B1

19 27 40 25 31 53

A2

29 47 61 39 64 80

MAM 13.6 3.64* A1B

32 45 55 37 62 78

B1

25 34 50 26 47 55

A2

40 68 82 62 90 96

JJA 14.4 4.99* A1B

52 67 78 53 83 95

B1

34 55 72 39 66 83

A2

20 49 69 36 69 84

SON 13.8 4.73* A1B

19 50 65 25 67 77

B1

21 39 55 16 53 65

Frequency of Hot Nights (TN90p)

A2

40 50 58 58 74 80

Annual 11.2 2.37* A1B

40 50 59 49 64 79

B1

31 39 48 35 48 57

A2

30 50 61 46 76 85

DJF 12 3.56* A1B

40 55 66 38 65 85

B1

28 40 49 36 48 67

A2

39 57 61 59 81 86

MAM 11.6 1.92* A1B

37 55 64 48 73 86

B1

25 39 47 35 52 58

A2

69 84 92 94 99 99

JJA 11.3 2.73* A1B

67 81 92 82 97 98

B1

46 60 81 54 78 90

A2

54 67 78 79 89 93

SON 12.3 4.22* A1B

54 67 76 67 79 92

B1

41 50 64 44 64 77

25

Belize: Country scale changes in Temperature Extremes (continued)

Observed Mean

1970-99

Observed Trend

1960-2006





% Frequency

Change in frequency

per decade

Future % frequency Future % frequency

Frequency of Cold Days (TX10p)

A2

1 5 5 0 2 4

Annual 8.4 -1.33* A1B

1 4 6 0 3 5

B1

3 5 6 2 4 6

A2

1 2 6 0 1 3

DJF 8.2 -1.09* A1B

1 4 5 0 2 6

B1

3 4 7 1 3 6

A2

1 2 5 0 1 3

MAM 8.9 -1.08* A1B

1 3 5 0 1 4

B1

2 4 7 1 3 6

A2

0 1 3 0 0 1

JJA 8.3 -1.60* A1B

0 1 2 0 0 1

B1

0 2 5 0 2 3

A2

0 2 5 0 1 3

SON 9.1 -0.81 A1B

1 1 5 0 1 4

B1

1 2 5 1 2 7

Frequency of Cold Nights (TN10p)

A2

1 4 7 0 2 4

Annual 7.5 -1.44* A1B

1 3 6 0 3 6

B1

3 4 6 1 4 6

A2

0 4 6 0 1 2

DJF 8 -1.74* A1B

0 3 4 0 2 4

B1

3 3 6 1 4 5

A2

0 3 4 0 1 2

MAM 8.4 -1.02 A1B

0 2 5 0 1 3

B1

1 4 5 0 3 6

A2

0 0 0 0 0 0

JJA 6.6 -1.35* A1B

0 0 0 0 0 0

B1

0 0 0 0 0 0

A2

0 2 4 0 0 2

SON 7.3 -1.52* A1B

0 1 5 0 1 3

B1

0 3 5 1 2 6

3.9. Rainfall Extremes

Changes in rainfall extremes, based on 1- and 5-day rainfall totals, as well as exceedance of a relative

threshold for ‘heavy’ rain, were examined. ‘Heavy’ rain is determined by the daily rainfall totals that are

exceeded on 5% of wet days in the ‘current’ climate or reference period, relative to the particular climate

of a specific region or season.

There is insufficient daily observational data to identify trends in all expects of rainfall extremes in Belize.

The magnitude of maximum 5-day rainfall shows increasing trend of 5.37 mm per decade over the period

1960 - 2006.

26

GCM projections of rainfall extremes are mixed across the ensemble of models, ranging from both

decreases and increases of all measures of extreme rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall that falls in

heavy events and also maximum 1-day rainfall both show very little or no change by 2080s. But, these

measures of extreme rainfall do show wide variations in projections across the GCM ensemble. Maximum

5‐day rainfall tends to decrease in model projections ranging from ‐45 to +52 mm annually by the 2080s.

Table 3.9.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in rainfall extremes for Belize.

Belize: Country scale changes in Rainfall Extremes

Observed Mean

1970-99

Observed Trend

1960-2006




Min Median Max Min Median

Max Min Median Max

% total rainfall falling in Heavy Events (R95pct)

% Change in % per decade

Change in % Change in %

A2

-10 0 4 -11 0 6

Annual 17.3 0.85 A1B

-11 0 5 -12 0 8

B1

-10 1 5 -11 0 8

A2

-8 0 5 -11 -3 4

DJF

A1B

-7 -1 6 -10 -3 11

B1

-13 0 8 -9 0 5

A2

-17 -6 5 -28 -6 4

MAM

A1B

-20 -6 5 -21 -8 6

B1

-20 -2 3 -19 -3 6

A2

-18 -2 7 -28 -8 7

JJA

A1B

-13 -4 7 -20 -6 7

B1

-18 -1 7 -16 -1 11

A2

-7 0 7 -14 0 9

SON

A1B

-10 2 6 -24 1 9

B1

-15 0 5 -6 0 8

Maximum 1-day rainfall (RX1day)

mm Change in mm

per decade

Change in mm Change in mm

A2

-12 0 6 -16 0 13

Annual 86.4 2.92 A1B

-20 0 11 -17 0 12

B1

-24 0 7 -4 0 25

A2

-3 -1 0 -5 0 1

DJF 17 -0.01 A1B

-3 0 1 -3 -1 3

B1

-3 0 2 -1 0 2

A2

-5 -1 4 -5 -2 4

MAM 26.6 0.99 A1B

-5 -1 5 -4 -1 9

B1

-6 -1 5 -2 -1 4

A2

-21 0 5 -18 -1 4

JJA 45.6 1.35 A1B

-14 0 3 -13 -1 5

B1

-15 0 6 -7 0 15

A2

-7 0 10 -19 0 23

SON 42.8 0.64 A1B

-19 2 6 -36 0 10

B1

-25 0 4 -5 0 16

27

Belize: Country scale changes in Rainfall Extremes

Observed Mean

1970-99

Observed Trend

1960-2006




Min Median Max Min Median

Max Min Median Max

Maximum 5-day Rainfall (RX5day)

mm Change in mm

per decade

Change in mm Change in mm

A2

-32 3 16 -45 -3 16

Annual 159.9 5.37* A1B

-40 1 19 -45 -4 18

B1

-53 -2 27 -12 0 52

A2

-7 -2 3 -12 0 7

DJF 29.5 1.12 A1B

-6 -2 3 -8 -1 7

B1

-7 -1 3 -4 0 4

A2

-13 -3 10 -12 -6 6

MAM 43.4 2.72* A1B

-13 -4 10 -15 -3 24

B1

-13 -2 7 -7 -4 9

A2

-42 -3 10 -45 -11 7

JJA 94.6 1.39 A1B

-27 -3 15 -28 -6 11

B1

-32 -1 24 -22 -1 30

A2

-21 0 29 -48 0 30

SON 83.7 1.63 A1B

-36 1 16 -74 0 24

B1

-50 -1 13 -11 -1 30

3.10. Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

Historical and future changes in tropical storm and hurricane activity have been a topic of heated debate in

the climate science community. Drawing robust conclusions with regards to changes in climate extremes is

continually hampered by issues of data quality in observations, the difficulties in separating natural

variability from long-term trends and the limitations imposed by spatial resolution of climate models.

Tropical storms and hurricanes form from pre-existing weather disturbances where sea surface

temperatures (SSTs) exceed 26˚C. Whilst SSTs are a key factor in determining the formation, development

and intensity of tropical storms, a number of other factors are also critical, such as subsidence, wind shear

and static stability. This means that whilst observed and projected increases in SSTs under a warmer

climate potentially expand the regions and periods of time when tropical storms may form, the critical

conditions for storm formation may not necessarily be met (e.g. Veccchi and Soden, 2007; Trenberth et al.,

2007) and increasing SSTs may not necessarily be accompanied by an increase in the frequency of tropical

storm incidences.

Several analyses of global (e.g. Webster et al., 2005) and more specifically North Atlantic (e.g. Holland and

Webster, 2007; Kossin et al., 2007; Elsner et al., 2008) hurricanes have indicated increases in the observed

record of tropical storms over the last 30 years. It is not yet certain to what degree this trend arises as part

of a long-term climate change signal or shorter-term inter-decadal variability. The available longer term

records are riddled with in homogeneities (inconsistencies in recording methods through time) - most

significantly, the advent of satellite observations, before which storms were only recorded when making

landfall or observed by ships (Kossin et al., 2007). Recently, a longer-term study of variations in hurricane

frequency in the last 1,500 years based on proxy reconstructions from regional sedimentary evidence

28

indicate recent levels of Atlantic hurricane activity are anomalously high relative to those of the last one-

and -a -half millennia (Mann et al., 2009).

Climate models are still relatively primitive with respect to representing tropical storms and this restricts

the ability to determine future changes in frequency or intensity. Changes in background conditions that

are conducive to storm formation (boundary conditions) can be analysed (e.g. Tapiador, 2008), or applied

to embedded high-resolution models which can credibly simulate tropical storms (e.g. Knutson and Tuleya,

2004; Emanuel et al., 2008). Regional Climate Models are able to simulate weak ‘cyclone-like’ storm

systems that are broadly representative of a storm or hurricane system but are still considered coarse in

scale with respect to modelling hurricanes.

The IPCC AR4 (Meehl et al., 2007b) concludes that models are broadly consistent in indicating increases in

precipitation intensity associated with tropical storms (e.g. Knutson and Tuleya, 2004; Knutson et al., 2008;

Chauvin et al., 2006; Hasegawa and Emori, 2005; Tsutsui, 2002). The higher resolution models that

simulate storms more credibly are also broadly consistent in indicating increases in associated peak wind

intensities and mean rainfall (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004; Oouchi et al., 2006). The projected changes in

wind and precipitation intensities from a selection of these modelling experiments are summarised in Table

3.10.1 to give an indication of the magnitude of these changes.

With regards to the frequency of tropical storms in future climate, models are strongly divergent. Several

recent studies (e.g. Vecchi and Sodon, 2007; Bengtssen et al., 2007; Emanuel et al., 2008, Knutson et al.,

2008) have indicated that the frequency of storms may decrease due to decreases in vertical wind shear in

a warmer climate. In several of these studies, intensity of hurricanes still increases despite decreases in

frequency (Emanuel et al., 2008; Knutson et al., 2008). In a recent study of the PRECIS regional climate

model simulations for Central America and the Caribbean, Bezanilla et al., (2009) found that the frequency

of ‘Tropical -Cyclone-like –Vortices’ increases on the Pacific coast of Central America, but decreases on the

Atlantic coast and in the Caribbean.

When interpreting the modelling experiments it should be remembered that the models remain relatively

primitive with respect to the complex atmospheric processes that are involved in hurricane formation and

development. Hurricanes are particularly sensitive to some of the elements of climate physics that these

models are weakest at representing and are often only included by statistical parameterisations.

Comparison studies have demonstrated that the choice of parameterisation scheme can exert a strong

influence on the results of the study (e.g. Yoshimura et al., 2006). It should also be recognised that the El

Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a strong and well established influence on Tropical Storm frequency in

the North Atlantic and explains a large proportion of inter-annual variability in hurricane frequency (among

other things). This means that the future frequency of hurricanes in the North Atlantic is likely to be

strongly dependent on whether the climate state becomes more ‘El-Niño-like’, or more ‘La-Niña-like’, an

issue upon which models are still strongly divided and suffer from significant deficiencies in simulating the

fundamental features of ENSO variability (e.g. Collins et al., 2005).

29

Table 3.10.1: Changes in Near-storm rainfall and wind intensity associated with Tropical storms in under global warming scenarios.

Reference GHG scenario

Type of Model Domain Change in near-storm rainfall intensity

Change in peak wind intensity

Knutson et al. (2008)

A1B Regional Climate Model Atlantic (+37, 23, 10)% when averaged within 50, 100 and 400 km of the storm centre

+2.9%

Knutson and Tuleya (2004)

1% per year CO2 increase

9 GCMs + nested regional model with 4 different moist convection schemes.

Global +12-33% +5-7%

Oouchi et al. (2006)

A1B High Resolution GCM Global

N/A +14%

North Atlantic +20%

3.11. Sea Level Rise

Observed records of sea level from tidal gauges and satellite altimeter readings indicate a global mean SLR

of 1.8 (+/- 0.5) mm yr-1 over the period 1961 - 2003 (Bindoff et al., 2007). Acceleration in this rate of

increase over the course of the 20th Century has been detected in most regions (Woodworth et al., 2009;

Church and White, 2006).

There are large regional variations superimposed on the mean global SLR rate. Observations from tidal

gauges surrounding the Caribbean basin (Table 3.11.1) indicate that SLR in the Caribbean is broadly

consistent with the global trend (Table 3.11.2).

Table 3.11.1: Sea level rise rates at observation stations surrounding the Caribbean Basin

Tidal Gauge Station Observed trend (mm yr-1

) Observation period

Bermuda 2.04 (+/- 0.47) 1932-2006

San Juan, Puerto Rico 1.65 (+/- 0.52) 1962-2006

Guantanamo Bay, Cuba 1.64 (+/- 0.80) 1973-1971

Miami Beach, Florida 2.39 (+/1 0.43) 1931-1981

Vaca Key, Florida 2.78 (+/- 0.60) 1971-2006

(Source: NOAA, 2009)

Projections of future SLR associated with climate change have recently become a topic of heated debate in

scientific research. The IPCC’s AR4 report summarised a range of SLR projections under each of its standard

scenarios, for which the combined range spans 0.18-0.59 m by 2100 relative to 1980 - 1999 levels (see

ranges for each scenario in Table 3.11.2). These estimates have since been challenged for being too

conservative and a number of studies (e.g. Rahmstorf, 2007; Rignot and Kanargaratnam, 2006; Horton et

al., 2008) have provided evidence to suggest that their uncertainty range should include a much larger

upper limit.

Total sea level rises associated with atmospheric warming appear largely through the combined effects of

two main mechanisms: (a) thermal expansion (the physical response of the water mass of the oceans to

atmospheric warming) and (b) ice-sheet, ice-cap and glacier melt. Whilst the rate of thermal expansion of

the oceans in response to a given rate of temperature increase is projected relatively consistently between

GCMs, the rate of ice melt is much more difficult to predict due to the incomplete understanding of ice-

sheet dynamics. The IPCC total SLR projections comprise of 70-75% (Meehl et al., 2007b) contribution from

thermal expansion, with only a conservative estimate of the contribution from ice sheet melt (Rahmstorf,

2007).

30

Recent studies that observed acceleration in ice discharge (e.g. Rignot and Kanargaratnam, 2006) and

observed rates of SLR in response to global warming (Rahmstorf, 2007), suggest that ice sheets respond

highly-non linearly to atmospheric warming. Continued acceleration of the large ice sheets might therefore

be expected, resulting in considerably more rapid rates of SLR. Rahmstorf (2007) is perhaps the most well

cited example of such a study and suggests that future SLR might be in the order of twice the maximum

level that the IPCC, indicating up to 1.4 m by 2100.

Table 3.11.2: Projected increases in sea level rise from the IPCC AR4

Scenario Global Mean Sea Level Rise by 2100 relative to 1980-1999.

Caribbean Mean Sea Level Rise by 2100 relative to 1980-1999 (+/ 0.05m relative to global mean)

IPCC B1 0.18-0.38 0.13-0.43

IPCC A1B 0.21-0.48 0.16-0.53

IPCC A2 0.23-0.51 0.18- 0.56

Rahmstorf, 2007 Up to 1.4m Up to 1.45m

(Source: Meehl et al., 2007b contrasted with those of Rahmstorf, 2007)

3.12. Storm Surge

Changes to the frequency or magnitude of storm surge experienced at coastal locations in Belize are likely

to occur as a result of the combined effects of:

1. Increased mean sea level in the region, which raises the base sea level over which a given storm

surge height is superimposed.

2. Changes in storm surge height, or frequency of occurrence, resulting from changes in the

severity or frequency of storms.

3. Physical characteristics of the region (bathymetry and topography) which determine the

sensitivity of the region to storm surge by influencing the height of the storm surge generated

by a given storm.

Sections 3.10 and 3.11 discuss the potential changes in sea level and hurricane intensity that might be

experienced in the region under (global) warming scenarios. The high degree of uncertainty in both of

these contributing factors creates difficulties in estimating future changes in storm surge height or

frequency.

Further impacts on storm surge flood return period may include:

Potential changes in storm frequency: some model simulations indicate a future reduction in storm

frequency, either globally or at the regional level. If such decreases occur they may offset these

increases in flood frequency at a given elevation.

Potential increases in storm intensity: evidence suggests overall increases in the intensity of storms

(lower pressure, higher near storm rainfall and wind speeds) which would cause increases in the

storm surges associated with such events and contribute further to increases in flood frequency at

a given elevation.

31

4. VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS PROFILE FOR BELIZE

Vulnerability is defined as the “inherent characteristics or qualities of social systems that create the

potential for harm. Vulnerability is a function of exposure… and sensitivity of [the] system” (Adger, 2006;

Cutter, 1996 cited in Cutter et al. 2008, p. 599). Climate change is projected to be a progressive process and

therefore vulnerability will arise at different time and spatial scales affecting communities and sectors in

distinct ways. Participatory approaches to data collection were implemented in Placencia to provide

additional community-level data and field surveys in Caye Caulker, Rocky Point and San Pedro enabled the

creation of sea level rise impact data and maps. To help in the identification and analysis of vulnerability,

the following sections discuss the implications and impacts of climate change on key sectors as they relate

to tourism in Belize.

Belize is already experiencing some of the effects of climate variability through damages from severe

weather systems and the decline of some coastal tourism attractions. According to the Government of

Belize, the major issues of climate change are SLR and the likelihood of more intense weather systems and

loss of biodiversity. The Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute (CZMAI) is the government

agency responsible for implementing and regulating the Coastal Zone Management Act, which makes

provision for protection of coastal ecosystems and habitats that directly and indirectly contribute to the

stabilisation and protection of the coastline from extreme climatic events.

4.1. Water Quality and Availability

4.1.1. Background


aquifers found in calcareous rock (Tollner, 2007). The main source of freshwater in rural areas is

predominantly groundwater, where approximately 95% of freshwater is extracted from groundwater

supplies (Frutos, 2003). In the cities of the Corozal, Orange Walk, Cayo and Toledo Districts, groundwater is

also used as a main source of drinking water (FAO, 2000). In other urban areas, 70% of the total water used

comes from surface water. Surface water is abundant in every region except on the Vaca Plateau where

streams disappear into porous limestone (Tollner, 2007). In 1995, Belize had the highest total volume of

freshwater available per capita, at 80.8 thousand cubic meters (Frutos, 2003; BEST, 2009). Rainwater is also

collected for use mainly in agricultural irrigation projects (BEST, 2009). It has been noted that freshwater

supplies are sufficient for the current population, though there is an increased stress on these supplies due

to population growth, increases in economic and agricultural activities, as well as an increase in droughts

(BEST, 2009). One desalinization plant is operating in the country and is located on Ambergris Caye, a

barrier reef island known as an important tourist destination (Consolidated Water (Belize) Limited, 2011).

This plant produces 470 thousand gallons of freshwater per day using the technique of reverse osmosis.

Reverse osmosis has also been installed recently in Caye Caulker, another popular tourist destination.

Belize is divided into 39 watersheds, 18 of them considered major watersheds (Figure 4.1.1; BEST 2009).

Numerous swamps, wetlands and mangroves form a transition between freshwater supplies and the coast.

These also act as filters for runoff before it drains into the Caribbean Sea. The main sources of population

are located along the Mopan branch of the Belize River, which is also the largest watershed at

approximately 1,570,000 acres and along the Rio Hondo, the second largest watershed at approximately

670,000 acres (BEST, 2009; BERDS, 2011). These two watersheds supply the majority of potable and

32

agricultural water needs in Belize (BEST, 2009; see Figure 4.1.1 and Figure 4.1.2). All of the watersheds in

Belize empty into the Caribbean Sea. The rivers in the northern region are mainly slow-flowing and

estuarine for a large portion of their lengths (Neal et al., 2007). In the central and southern regions, the

rivers tend to be shorter and faster flowing until they enter the coastal plain where they also become more

estuarine (Neal et al., 2007).

The distribution of freshwater usage in Belize was the following in 2005: 43.7% agricultural (% of total

demand), 36.5% industrial and 19.7% domestic/residential (BEST, 2009). Domestic water usage is

approximately 240-280 litres per day in urban areas and 160 litres per day in rural areas (FAO, 2000). In

2007 alone, approximately 15.3 billion gallons of water were used (BEST, 2009). This is mainly used by the

industrial and agricultural sector which makes up about 80% of demand.

In general, access to safe water is limited, particularly in rural areas (BEST, 2009; WMB, 2011). Belize Water

Services Ltd. (BWS), is the sole service provider in Belize, providing water and sewerage to 46610 (BWS,

2010) and accounts for an approximate demand of some 150 million US gallons of water per month (BWS,

2009). Most villages are otherwise serviced by a village water board and some also have access to a water

tower (Mustafa and Reeder, 2009; WMB, 2011). Water not provided through piping is usually collected

rainwater or river water treated with bleach (WMB, 2011). In the 2010 population census, it was noted that

the use of unsafe water sources such as waterways, standpipes, public wells and private catchments had

been cut by half, but was still high in certain districts such as Corozal, Orange Walk and Toledo (SIB, 2010).

The total water production for the fiscal year of 2010 was tallied at US $2.81 billion gallons (BWS, 2009).

Figure 4.1.1: Belize Hydrological Regions

33

(Source: BEST, 2009)

Figure 4.1.2: Belize roads and major cities

(Source: BERDS, 2011)

Tourism is the largest contributor to GDP in Belize. Tourist expenditures reached BZ $400 million dollars in

2006, which is approximately 16.8% of GDP (BTB, 2008). Combined, tourists visiting by cruise ships and

overnight visitors reached almost one million in 2006. The largest tourism destinations in Belize are

Ambergris Caye, Caye Caulker and the Cayo District. Ambergris Caye and Caye Caulker are the locations of

the two desalinization plants in Belize, built predominantly to fulfil the growing water demand from the

tourism industry. The plant at Ambergris Caye is operated by Consolidated Water (Belize) Limited (CW,

2011). Caye Caulker is a smaller island once known for its availability of freshwater (CCB, 2004) and now has

a thriving tourism industry. Until recently it was largely dependent on underground water sources from

wells, which can become contaminated due to inadequate sewers (BEST, 2009). All three locations are

serviced by the Belize Water Services Ltd. (BWS). At Ambergris Caye, a twenty-three year agreement was

signed between Consolidated Water and Belize Water Services Limited in 2003 (CW, 2011). In this

agreement, it was noted that:

“The contract also ensures that the capacity of the plant will keep pace with the growing

demands of Ambergris Caye and that a sufficient supply of high quality drinking water will

not be a factor limiting growth of the island.” (CW, 2011)

34

In this way, Consolidated Water is guaranteeing the ever increasing demands of the growing tourism

industry at Ambergris Caye as well as supporting growth of this industry, which could potentially put more

strain on water sources. Most of the hotels, resorts and guesthouses that are not supported by the BWS

use rainwater as one of their main water sources for drinking and washing (Belize.com, 2011). Because of

this, guests are often urged to be mindful of their water use and to conserve, since availability of water is

dependent on precipitation. Cayes are often very susceptible to droughts and also very popular with

tourists. This puts many tourist accommodations at risk of not being able to supply adequate amounts of

water due to changing precipitation patterns associated with climate change.

Several ministries, agencies and companies have a stake in water use and management in Belize. Overlaps

are often found due to the nature of having so many fragmented organisations trying to fulfil similar duties,

while some important areas are not addressed (Frutos, 2003). The Government of Belize (GOB) has

mandated that several ministries and agencies control particular aspects of water management. The

Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment (MNRE) is responsible for the management of natural

resources and is the umbrella organisation under which the National Meteorological Service (NMS) falls and

the Department of the Environment (DOE). The NMS is in charge of the research aspect, reporting on

changes in hydrology and climate (NMS, 2011). The DOE has a broad mandate which covers all sectors and

thus affects legislation on water. The Public Utilities Commission (PUC) which is not under the MNRE

regulates the utilities sector, including amendments to water tariffs (PUC, 2011).

Belize Water Services Ltd. is the main company operating in Belize which provides water and sewerage

services to approximately 44,000 people, including the cities of Belize and Belmopan (Mustafa and Reeder

2009). BWS was established in 2001 through the privatisation of the Water and Sewage Authority (WASA),

but has since been re-purchased by Government (BWS, n.d.). The BWS also coordinates with the Rural

Water Unit (RWU) in drilling wells in rural areas that may not have service (Frutos, 2003).

Figure 4.1.3: Schematic diagram of the Stakeholders in the Belize Water Sector

Water metering is used in all communities serviced by the BWS, though there have been several issues with

this (Mustafa and Reeder, 2009; PUC, 2011). An extensive study conducted by Mustafa and Reeder (2009),

outlined the failure of privatizing water services with BWS and outlined several major complaints such as an

increase in tariffs, excessive disconnection rates and poor response to customer complaints resulting in

higher costs (such as leaks). From the surveys conducted by Mustafa and Reeder (2009) in Belize City, 82%

of respondents reported good water connections, while 12% used other means of accessing water.

35

Since BWS took over water distribution from what used to be the Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA),

the rates have either doubled or increased many fold for tariffs and connection rates (Mustafa and Reeder,

2009). The desalinization plant operating in Belize has rates subsidised by the Government. The water

costs for San Pedro (where water is sourced from desalinization) are BZ $0.20 per gallon for the first 1,000

gallons per month (GWI, 2011). In Belize City, the rate is BZ $0.10 per gallon, with an added 20% cost for

sewerage service, mainly in Belize City and Belmopan. For other areas, the rate is BZ $0.075 per gallon (See

Table 4.1.1).

Table 4.1.1: Tariff Rates for Belize Water Services

Areas of Supply Rates BZ $ (US$)1 and Conditions

Belize City & Belmopan - Water &

Sewer Zones

2.(a) In any one month for less than 1,001 gallons a fee of $10.34 ($5.21)



Water ONLY Areas - 14 municipalities - Those areas of Belize City

and Belmopan outside of sewer zones

- All other sub-urban and villages serviced by Belize Water Services Limited.

2.(a)In any one month for less than 1,001 gallons a fee of $8.62 ($4.34)


(c) Proportionate fee for every gallon above 2,000 gallons and up to 3,000 gallons inclusive at the rate per 1,000 gallons of $14.94 (14.92) (etc. Increase in price for up to 5,000 gallons)

San Pedro, Ambergris Caye 2.(a)In any one month for less than 1,001 gallons a fee of $25.27 ($12.73)



Caye Caulker 2.(a)In any one month for less than 1,001 gallons a fee of $23.00 (11.58)



1Exchange rate used BZ $1.00 = US $0.50

(Source: Belize Water Services, 2009)

4.1.2. Vulnerability of Water Availability and Quality Sector to Climate Change

Belize is a country well endowed with water resources. However, recent issues with water scarcity and

water quality have become more commonplace as various stresses on water resources increase. Key issues

with water vulnerability in Belize are the uneven distribution of water resources. The southern region has

the lowest population, with the highest amount of freshwater availability, whereas the central and

northern regions both have much large populations and much less water resources (BEST, 2009). Several

Cayes have become popular tourist destinations but have low availabilities of freshwater. In particular,

Caye Caulker is vulnerable to contamination of its underground water through poor sewer construction and

intrusion of salt water into aquifers (BEST, 2009). It has also been noted that there has been changes in

precipitation (NMS, 2011) and that this has led to severe droughts that have affected many parts of the

country and the economy (BEST, 2009).

36

The water infrastructure can also at times be an issue, as most of the rural areas do not have piped water

supply and have to rely on drilled wells for freshwater, which can be low in times of drought or low

precipitation (BEST, 2009). Most major cities have adequate piping and distribution, although the tariffs

can be high at times and many poorer communities choose to get their own water from local wells

(Mustafa and Reeder, 2009).

Drought in Belize

Decreases in precipitation are projected for many sub-tropical areas including the Caribbean region, which

is also likely to experience shorter rainy seasons and precipitation in shorter duration, intense events

interspersed with longer periods of relatively dry conditions (Bates et al., 2008). A significant increase in the

number of consecutive dry days has been found for the Caribbean region (Bates et al., 2008), indicating

that periods of drought are becoming increasingly common. As a result, drought management will become

a progressively large challenge, requiring a multifocal approach due to its non-structural nature and

complex spatial patterns. This makes it a difficult task to find suitable solutions to adapt to the problems

created by drought conditions (e.g. Campbell et al., 2010). Good management of the water supply system is

critical for drought mitigation, needing careful operation of water supply infrastructure to be effective (e.g.

Shih and ReVelle, 1994; Hyde et al., 2004; Fang, 2011). Measures taken to mitigate the effects of drought

conditions in the Caribbean region have included the use of truck water for in-country redistribution, the

rotation of water supply, increased desalination and the importation of water from other countries using

barges.

Recent changes have been observed in temperatures, with the overall result being an increase in the

frequency of warm days and nights and a decrease in the frequency of cool days and nights (BEST, 2009;

UNDP Country Profile, 2011). The largest observed change was in the increase of night-time temperatures,

where it was observed that the increase in night-time temperatures contributed more to the overall

increase in temperature than the increase in daytime temperatures (BEST, 2009). In the period from 1961

to 2005, an overall increase of 0.9°C was observed. Projections for changes in temperature and rainfall

throughout the country are similar to what is projected for other Caribbean countries (McSweeney, New

and Lizcano, 2011). There are several regions in Belize which are somewhat uniform in physical

characteristics and as thus will be examined separately.

The northern region is projected to experience a decrease in precipitation which would put more stress on

the recharging of groundwater aquifers. This region also has less water resources and these are already

used extensively in agricultural irrigation of papaya and rice fields, as well as sugar (BEST, 2009). In this

region, rainfall is projected to increase by 3.8% in the 2015s and then fall to 1% below the baseline of 1971

- 2000. The dry season is projected to experience above normal runoff until the 2070’s and then a decrease

in runoff until the end of the century. It is projected that by 2080, the temperature in this region will

increase by 5.0°C over the baseline period from 1960 – 2005.

The central region is one of the most populated regions and similarly is projected to experience a decrease

in precipitation, which combined would lead to stresses on groundwater replenishment. Rainfall is

projected to fall by 18% below the baseline along the coast and by 23.1% below the baseline inland (BEST,

2009). The decrease in the average annual precipitation as compared to the 1971 - 2000 period, is

significantly lower in the central region as compared to the other regions (BEST 2009; UNDP Country

Report, 2011). This region is projected to also experience above normal water runoff for the remainder of

this century. Temperature trends are similar to the northern region, where temperatures are projected to

increase by 3.1°C by 2080 along the coastline and by 5.0°C above the baseline period of 1960 - 2005.

37

The southern region is projected to experience the least amount of adverse changes due to the fact that it

has the lowest population in the country and is also endowed with majority of the water resources. In this

region rainfall will initially fall by 16.9% and will continue decreasing to 18.3% by the 2080s (BEST, 2009).

With regards to temperature, this region will experience a cooling rather than a warming trend, but not a

very strong one.

Overall, Belize is projected to experience an increase in temperatures, a decrease in overall precipitation

events, but an increase in heavy precipitation events which would lead to more flooding events and reduce

water quality and availability (See Climate Modelling Section).

The NMS which is responsible for doing the research on drought conditions, reports that the GOB has not

adopted a definition for drought. However, droughts can be described as ‘extensions or intensifications of

the dry seasons when rainfall is unusually low or delayed’ (Green 2000, pg 11). The United Nations

Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), in their first national report with Belize used three various

categories for drought depending on the existing conditions (Green, 2000). These categories are as follows:

“(i) Atmospheric drought is a condition, occurring over a wide area, where there is a significant decrease of

precipitation from the climatologically expected normal, such that natural vegetation does not flourish and

agricultural crops fail.

(ii) Agricultural drought occurs when the available soil moisture at the root zone during the growing season is

inadequate for healthy crop growth and causes extreme water stress. Non-irrigated crops decrease in yields.

(iii) Hydrological drought is associated with long-duration periods of low discharge insufficient to meet the

demand of specific users. This situation leads to water quality degradation.” (Green 2000; pg 12)

In Belize droughts have become more common occurrences, though are not considered epidemic yet

(Green, 2000). Historically, Belize has experienced several periods of drought. The two notable drought

events were in 1975 and in 2004/2005 (BEST, 2009). However, as discussed above, there has been an

increase in temperatures, causing heat waves and drought conditions which have negatively affected

agriculture, livestock and the availability of potable water (BEST, 2009). In 1998, surface and groundwater

sources were recorded to be below average and since 2003 (2001 in some regions) rainfall has been

recorded as being below average (ECLAC, 2006).

The impacts of the drought in 1975 resulted in loss of agriculture, loss of cattle and the reduced availability

of potable water. The drought in 2004/2005 had severely stronger impacts. Rainfall was recorded at 20% to

30% below average, particularly in the northern regions (BEST, 2009). The impacts resulted in low river

levels, increased water demand and sales, increase in electricity use for water production, decrease in

hydro power, increased water costs, higher operational costs, increased pumping costs and sever losses in

both the agriculture and livestock sectors (BEST, 2009).

In May of 2011, the NMS issued a drought report for the months of March, April and May (AT, 2011). This

most recent drought has had negative impacts particularly on the livestock industry, where farmers are

unable to find adequate water supplies and pastures to sustain them (7 News, 2011). With the start of the

rainy season and hurricane season, the threat of drought had been lifted, though severe economic losses

were still felt throughout the country, particularly by rural cattle farmers (7 News, 2011).

As demand increases and population continues to grow this will result in an increased stress on water

availability. An increase in population will also increase demand in food and thus agricultural growth, which

has been shown to contribute to drought incidences.

38

Seawater intrusion of ground water resources

Coastal aquifers are threatened by seawater intrusion with rising sea levels, exacerbated by a decrease in

groundwater recharge through over-abstraction and decreasing precipitation (Lewsey et al., 2004; Bates et

al. 2008; Werner and Simmons, 2009). A rise in sea level as low as 0.1 m may cause a decrease in aquifer

thickness of more than 10 m (Bobba et al., 2002) leading to substantial declines in freshwater availability.

Reductions in groundwater recharge to inland aquifers can also lead to seawater intrusion if they are next

to saline aquifers (Chen et al., 2004), indicating a potential knock-on effect where coastal aquifers become

saline due to SLR, then neighbouring aquifers experience saltwater intrusion during dry periods with low

groundwater recharge. With global average sea levels found to be rising at a rate of 1.8 ± 0.3 mm per year

(White et al., 2005) and with rates increasing (Church and White, 2006), coastal aquifers may be severely

impacted by saltwater intrusion and many countries may lose vital water resources. Storm surges from

hurricanes can cause extensive damage to aquifers (Anderson, 2002), the risk of which will increase as

higher sea-levels reduce the level of the storm-surge required for contamination to occur. In the Caribbean,

sea levels have been observed to have risen between 1.5 and 3 mm per year (see Climate Modelling

Section). Factors which increase the vulnerability of aquifers to saline intrusion include (i) their proximity to

the sea, (ii) increasing abstractions due to rising demand from domestic, agricultural and industrial uses

(Karanjac, 2004) and (iii) declining groundwater recharge through reduced precipitation or an increased

proportion of surface runoff through precipitation occurring in higher-intensity, shorter-duration events

(Bates et al., 2008) or decreased infiltration of water through land-cover changes agriculture (Scanlon et al.,

2005; Zhang and Schilling, 2006).

In Belize, the distribution of all wells that have been drilled or dug out by hand is unknown (FAO, 2000;

BEST, 2009). The only well distribution that is known and updated is that of the BWS. There is a lack of

coordination between the BWS and the local village water boards, of which there approximately 90 and

thus no concrete number exists (BEST, 2009; Mustafa and Reeder, 2009). Under the village board, the

households are usually charged a flat rate per month as these are not often metered. If there is no access

to piped water service, or no local provider, then the water is accessed using hand pumps (BEST, 2009).

The importance of groundwater is significant: 95% of rural communities depend on groundwater as their

primary source of freshwater. In the cities of Corozal, Orange Walk, Cayo and the Toledo Districts,

groundwater is also used as a source of drinking water (Tollner, 2007). Groundwater is mainly used for

residential or industrial purposes (such as bottled water companies, irrigation for certain crops) and does

not make up large percentage of the overall water used (BEST, 2009). The total amount of groundwater

available has not been quantified and thus it is not clear what percentage of total water supply this

amounts to (BEST, 2009).

The mean annual rainfall in Belize has decreased by an average rate of 3.1 mm per month every decade

since 1960 (McSweeney, New and Lizcano, 2011). In general, rainfall has been below average in all regions

since 2003 (ECLAC, 2006). This has resulted in water deficits for many economic activities such as

agriculture and industry (ECLAC, 2006). When rainfall is decreased, groundwater aquifers as well as surface

water are stressed and do not replenish at the rates necessary to support demand which results in reduced

recharge (ECLAC, 2006). During drought periods, such as the 2004 - 2005 drought, demand for water

increased due to higher air temperatures. This was met by an increase in hours and cost of operation of its

plants, while no rationing was put in place, deepening the water stress felt by groundwater and surface

waters (ECLAC, 2006).

Groundwater has been declining steadily in recent years, due to several factors. Some of these factors

include intensive uses of water resources by sectors such as agriculture and industry and a growing tourist

39

industry (BEST, 2009). However, the amount of decline has not been quantified as it is unclear what the

extent of underground aquifers is (ECLAC, 2006; BEST, 2009). In groundwater aquifers that are in use,

particularly in coastal aquifers, issues of over-abstraction are important to take into account. Groundwater

sources are reported to be low during dry season, which leads to an increase in the possibility of salt water

intrusion and thus the up taking of brackish water rather than freshwater.

Belize has over 220 kilometres of coastline, most of it low lying and on average less than 30 cm above sea

level (Neal et al., 2007). Beaches, cayes and low lying areas are at risk from SLR which could lead to salt

water intrusion in underground aquifers, particularly in cayes that use groundwater sources (Neal et al.,

2007; BEST, 2009). The northern half and the majority of the southern half of the country are flat low lying

areas (NMS, 2011). The northern half is also highly populated and has a large agricultural sector. Also of

importance to coastlines, is that large sections are at elevations of less than 1 meter that go inland several

miles (NMS, 2011). This poses a risk to populations in these areas, as well as water quality issues in the

event that open sewers are inundated (BEST, 2009). Belize City is situated in a low lying area and already

experiences flooding at spring high tides, putting it at a higher risk of contamination of its water both

through salt water intrusion as well as risk of contamination through sewers (BEST, 2009). It is also

important to note that approximately 38% of the population is situated on or near the coast and cayes

(Neal et al., 2007). The tourism industry also has recently developed mainly on the coast or the cayes,

making SLR an issue that would also threaten this industry (Neal et al., 2007).

Irrigation efficiency in the agriculture sector

Globally, agricultural water use comprises around 70% of total water extractions (Wisser et al., 2008) yet, in

the drier, warmer environment expected under climate change in the Caribbean, irrigation water demand

is likely to increase, exacerbating the effects of decreases in water availability (Döll, 2002). Increased

evaporative demands under climate change may lead to reductions in irrigation efficiency (Fischer et al.,

2007). Careful consideration will need to be given to efficient irrigation practices and technology to reduce

wastage and increase the amount of water reaching the crop, estimated to be as low as 40% worldwide

(Pimentel et al., 1997).

Irrigation is generally not used extensively, due to generally adequate levels of precipitation (BEST, 2009).

The irrigation of rice, papayas and sugar is intensive in the northern regions of Belize (BEST, 2009). There is

however, no data on irrigation and thus it is not known what amount of water goes into this sector (BEST,

2009). Surface waters are the main sources of irrigation use, though groundwater and rain water can also

be used in times of drought, or if surface water is not available nearby (Green, 2000; BEST, 2009).

Agriculture, as previously mentioned, is one of the biggest contributions to water demand at 43.7 %

(Green, 2000; BEST, 2009). The majority of this demand stems from the intensive agriculture practices in

the northern regions. This is significant since this region also has less water resources and it is projected to

have a decrease in rainfall. This will increase the threat to the already overused water resources and could

create potentially further problems of over-extraction. The northern region has river systems that are more

estuarine in nature and therefore may contain more brackish water which would be inadequate for

irrigation purposes.

Due to the above conditions, it is therefore necessary for the northern region to find alternate means of

irrigation and particularly to have the amount of water used for irrigation quantified in order that this be

monitored more closely (Green, 2000).

40

There does not exist a fully operating central administration for water resources management (BEST, 2009).

Because of this main issue, financial resources for water management have been minimal and have been

focused on the delivery end primarily for residential/domestic use (BEST, 2009).

Flooding

Intense rainfall from storm events may only last a few hours, but can result in serious rapid-onset flooding,

particularly when they occur in catchments that are small, steep or highly urbanised, as is the case in the

much of the Caribbean region. Floods are a particular problem for water resources because, aside from the

potential for loss of life and property, they can affect water quality and have implications for sanitation and

cause serious soil erosion. Flooding erodes topsoil along with animal waste, faeces, pesticides, fertilizers,

sewage and garbage, which may then contaminate groundwater sources as well as marine areas. Erosion

may lead to the formation and deepening of gullies which, if they develop in hill slope areas with temporary

water tables, may lead to enhanced drainage leading to groundwater discharge (Poesen, 2003).

While GCM modelling projections indicate an overall tendency for decreases in overall precipitation across

the Caribbean region (see Climate Modelling Section), excluded from these projections is the potential of

an increase in the frequency and intensity of storm events with associated heavy rainfall (Frei et al., 1998;

Min et al., 2011), including those associated with hurricanes. Research by Emanuel (2005) shows a strong

correlation between hurricane size and sea surface temperature, suggesting an upward trend in hurricane

destructive potential. Statistical analysis (Trenberth, 2005) and modelling (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004)

suggest that hurricane intensity will increase, with the north Atlantic Ocean in particular showing an

increasing trend in storm frequency (Deo et al., 2011).

Between 1980 and 2007, Belize experienced five hurricanes and three tropical storms, two of which were

category 3, as well as the threat of two stronger hurricanes of category 5 (BEST, 2009). It has been noted by

NMS that tropical storms and hurricanes affect the country once every three years (NMS, 2011). Belize City,

which was formerly the capital city, was moved to Belmopan after being destroyed twice by strong

hurricanes in the 20th Century. Tropical storms and hurricanes can hit anywhere, but most often hit the

northern region (NMS, 2011).

Belize has experienced recurrent flooding, particularly during the wet season or from the passing of tropical

storms (BEST, 2009). Due to the recent changes in climate, it has been forecasted that Belize will

experience a higher number of extreme tropical storms leading and higher overall rainfall, both of which

will lead to frequent flooding events (BEST, 2009). As previously described, much of the northern and

southern coastal areas, all of the islands and cayes, as well as several miles inland are flat low lying areas

(NMS, 2011). This puts a considerable amount of land area at risk of frequent flooding. Most of the flooding

experienced in Belize is either due to high precipitation levels or to tropical waves, depressions or storms

(NMS, 2011). High precipitation levels in a short period of time are common during the wet season (May to

November). This often leads to flooding and is often a result of tropical systems passing through. These can

also create storm surges that flood cayes, islands and low lying coastal areas (NMS, 2011). Annual floods

cause significant losses in the agriculture, livestock and transportation infrastructure sector (ECLAC, 2006).

Flooding in Belize has been known to affect the water availability and quality (BEST, 2009). Storm surges

can contaminate surface and groundwater wells through saltwater intrusion (BEST, 2009). Outdoor latrines

can also overflow during flooding events and can contaminate various water sources (WMB, 2011). It is

however unknown what the full impact on water quality is during flood events since there is no

comprehensive water quality monitoring program in place (BEST, 2011).

41

The Hydromet office located at the NMS is the primary office responsible for the flood warning system in

Belize, along with the National Emergency Management Organization (http://www.nemo.org.bz/; NMS,

2011). Flood warnings are broadcasted on the national radio and television, as well as being updated on the

NMS website (NMS, 2011). NEMO is “established to preserve life and property throughout the country of

Belize in the event of an emergency, threatened or real” (NEMO, 2011) and is thus not in charge of the

warning system, but is in charge of providing guidelines for hurricane preparedness and providing shelters

when required (NEMO, 2011).

http://www.nemo.org.bz/

42

4.2. Energy Supply and Distribution

4.2.1. Background

A global perspective

Tourism is a significant user of energy and a concomitant contributor to emissions of greenhouse gases. In

various national comparisons, tourism has been identified as one of the most energy-intense sectors, which

moreover is largely dependent on fossil fuels (e.g. Gössling et al., 2005; Gössling 2010). Likewise, the

growing energy intensity of economies in the Caribbean has caused concern among researchers (e.g.

Francis et al., 2007).

Globally, tourism causes 5% of emissions of CO2, the most relevant greenhouse gas. Considering the

radiative forcing of all greenhouse gases, tourism’s contribution to global warming increases to 5.2 - 12.5%

(Scott et al., 2010). The higher share is a result of emissions of nitrous oxides (NOx) as well as water leading

to the formation of aviation-induced clouds (AIC), which cause additional radiative forcing. The range in the

estimate is primarily attributed to uncertainties regarding the role of AIC in trapping heat (Lee et al., 2009).

Aviation is consequently the most important tourism-subsector in terms of its impact on climate change,

accounting for at least 40% (CO2) of the contribution made by tourism to climate change. This is followed

by cars (32% of CO2), accommodation (21%), activities (4%) and other transport (3%), notably cruise ships

(1.5%).

In the future to 2050, emissions from tourism are expected to grow considerably. Based on a business-as-

usual scenario for 2035, which considers changes in travel frequency, length of stay, travel distance and

technological efficiency gains, UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008) estimate that emissions will increase by about

135% compared to 2005. Similar figures have been presented by the World Economic Forum (WEF, 2009).

Aviation will remain the most important emissions sub-sector of the tourism system, with expected

emission growth by a factor 2-3. As global climate policy will seek to achieve considerable emission

reductions in the order of 50% of 1990 emission levels by 2050, aviation and tourism more generally, will

be in stark conflict with achieving global climate goals, possibly accounting for a large share of the

sustainable emissions budget, Figure 4.2.1.

43

Lines A and B in Figure 4.2.1: represent emission pathways for the global economy under a -3% per year (A) and -6% per year (B) emission reduction scenario, with emissions peaking in 2015 (A) and 2025 (B) respectively. Both scenarios are based on the objective of avoiding a +2°C warming threshold by 2100 (for details see Scott et al. 2010). As indicated, a business-as-usual scenario in tourism, considering current trends in energy efficiency gains, would lead to rapid growth in emissions from the sector (line C). By 2060, the tourism sector would account for emissions exceeding the emissions budget for the entire global economy (intersection of line C with line A or B).

Figure 4.2.1: Global CO2 emission pathways versus unrestricted tourism emissions growth. (Source: Scott et al., 2010)

Achieving emission reductions in tourism in line with global climate policy will consequently demand

considerable changes in the tourism system, with a reduction in overall energy use and a switch to

renewable energy sources. Such efforts will have to be supported through technology change, carbon

management, climate policy, behavioural change, education and research (Gössling, 2010). Carbon taxes

and emissions trading are generally seen as key mechanisms to achieve emissions reductions. Destinations

and tourism stakeholders consequently need to engage in planning for a low-carbon future.

The Caribbean perspective

It is widely acknowledged that the Caribbean accounts for only 0.2% of global emissions of CO2, with a

population of 40 million, i.e. 0.6% of the world’s population (Dulal et al., 2009). Within the region,

emissions are however highly unequally distributed between countries, Figure 4.2.2. For instance, Trinidad

& Tobago, as an oil producing country, has annual per capita emissions reaching those of high emitters such

as the A (25 t CO2). The Cayman Islands (7 t CO2 per capita per year) are emitting in the same order as

countries such as Sweden. Belize is, so far, emitting considerably less (with emissions of 873,583 t CO2 in

2009, the population of 312,698 caused average per capita emissions of 3.1 t CO2) on a per capita basis

than the world annual average of 4.3 t CO2. In the future, global emissions have to decline considerably

below 4.3 t CO2 per year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests a decline in

emissions by 20% by 2020 (IPCC, 2007b), corresponding to about 3 t CO2 per capita per year, a figure that

also considers global population growth. While there is consequently room for many countries in the region

to increase per capita emissions, including in particular Haiti, many of the more developed countries in the

44

Caribbean will need to adjust per capita emissions budgets downwards, i.e. reduce national emissions in

the medium-term future. Belize’s current emissions would be in line with this medium-term goal.

Figure 4.2.2: Per capita emissions of CO2 in selected countries in the Caribbean, 2005 (Source: Hall et al. 2009)

Important in the context of this report is that in most Caribbean countries, tourism is a major contributor to

emissions of greenhouse gases (Simpson et al., 2008; see also country reports in the Risk Atlas). As these

emissions are not usually quantified, however, the purpose of this assessment is to look in greater detail

into energy use by sector.

4.2.2. Belize

In 2003, the National Energy Plan Project found that Belize’s energy system is based on four main sources:

imported fossil fuels (66%); biomass (traditional biomass and bagasse; 26%); hydropower (3%); and

imported electricity (5%; Figure 4.2.3) (Public Utilities Commission, 2003a). Crude oil production in Belize

was recently established owing to the discovery of commercial quantities in 2005, however most of the

traditional fuel used is imported, Table 4.2.1. Exploration and production of crude oil (and gas) is managed

by Belize Natural Energy Ltd. (Belize Natural Energy Ltd., 2010). According to CIPORE (2009), Belize is one of

two oil-producing countries in Central America and averaged crude oil production of approximately 2,500

barrels per day for most of 2006. The main petroleum based sub-products are gasoline, kerosene and diesel

(Public Utilities Commission, 2003a). With regard to energy use, most is used for transport (57%), followed

by the industrial and commercial sector (22%) and residential uses (20%; Figure 4.2.3). Table 4.2.1 further

details primary energy use.

45

(Source: Public Utilities Commission, 2003b)

Figure 4.2.3: Primary energy sources and final energy uses, 2002

Table 4.2.1: Total primary energy use, 2002

Fuel source volume unit tonnes ktoe TJ

Propane Imported 2,765,697 Lbs 1,256 1.42 59

Butane Imported 26,389,639 Lbs 11,981 13.54 567

Diesel Imported 29,740,331 US Gallons 94,444 97.75 4,093

Bunker C Imported 89,193 US Gallons 317 0.30 13

Gasoline Imported 25,833,133 US Gallons 72,356 77.42 3,241

Kerosene Imported 2,558,766 US Gallons 7,806 8.16 342

Aviation Gasoline Imported 499,800 US Gallons 1,337 1.42 60

Electricity (CFE) Imported 180,510 MWh 15.52 650

Fuel wood Local 118,244 m3 27.58 1,155

Bagasse Local 286,127 metric tons 286,127 52.76 2,210

Hydro Local 88 GWh 7.60 318

Solar Local 0.0 GWh 0.003 0

Wind Local 0.1 GWh 0.006 0

TOTAL 303 12,707

(Source: Adapted from Lewis, C.V., Director Electricity Sector, Public Utilities Commission, personal communication, 5 July 2011)

In 2009, new electrical generation capacity was installed, giving a total capacity of 117 MW compared to a

peak demand of 76 MW. According to the Public Utilities Commission the sector has 6 main contributing

companies that feed into the national grid (Belize Electricity Limited), which has 9 major load centres

located around mainland Belize and on two Cays (Lewis, C.V., Director Electricity Sector, Public Utilities

Commission, personal communication, 5 July 2011). Belize Electricity Limited (BEL) is the primary

distributor of electricity, sourcing power from multiple companies. According to the 2010 Belize

Electricity Limited annual report the sources of electricity for 2010 were distributed as shown in Figure

4.2.4. Developments since 1995 have enabled Belize to move from an electricity sector that was largely

dependent on fossil fuels to one that is now dominated by renewable sources of energy.

46

Figure 4.2.4: Distribution of electricity providers 2010

(Based on data in BEL, 2011)

BECOL is a hydro-electricity facility in the west of Belize with three separate components: the Mollejon

Generating Facility was built between 1992/5 and is a run-of-river facility with three 8.25 MW units; the

Chalillo Dam was built later between 2002/5 to provide storage for Mollejon and also includes a 7 MW unit

at the toe of the dam; the Vaca run-of-the-river plant is approximately three miles downstream of the

Mollejon hydroelectric facility on the Macal River. The 19 MW VACA generating facility was started in

2007 and was completed in March 2010 (BEL, 2009; BEL, 2011). Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE

Mexico) has been feeding into the grid in the north for several years, but in 2009 cancelled the Firm Power

Purchase Agreement with BEL, as a result of limited generation capacity. They continue to supply BEL with

power as available (approximately 50% of CFE generation is from fossil fuel). Belize Cogeneration Energy

Limited (BELCOGEN) is a 13.5 MW bagasse to energy facility that was established with the support of a

number of financial institutions, including the Caribbean Development Bank, the Dutch Development Bank

and the Inter-American Investment Corporation (IIC) of the Inter-American Development Bank (CIPORE,

2009). Hydro Maya is a 3 MW run-of-river facility located in Toledo and connected to the National Grid.

Belize Aquaculture Limited’s (BAL) heavy fuel oil-fired generating plant, located in the Stann Creek District,

was interconnected in April 2009 and is providing backup power to improve system reliability and reduce

transmission losses. It supplies up to 15 MW to the National Grid and uses the remaining 7 MW for a Fish

Farm. BAL ceased generation of power in April 2010, due to fuel supply issues and only supplied 4.5

GWh in 2010 as compared to 48.8 GWh in 2009. BEL also has generating capacity of 34 MW with a 22

MW diesel powered gas turbine located 8 miles west of Belize City that was intended for black start,

emergency and peaking coverage. The use is kept low, because operating costs are high (most expensive

source in 2010). They also have a few other diesel units for emergency and standby use (BEL, 2009; 2011)

Trends in the energy sector

As shown in Table 4.2.2, there has been continuous growth in fossil fuel consumption in Belize, from 2,216

bbls per day in 1990, to about 7,250 bbls per day in 2009. Corresponding emissions have grown from

313,000 t CO2 in 1990 to 994,000 t CO2 in 2008. There has been a decline in fuel use (and emissions) from

2008 to 2009, which may be a result of the global financial crisis or a reflection of the increased role played

1% 1%

3%

10%

33%

52%

BAL

BEL

Hydro Maya

Belcogen

CFE

BECOL

47

by renewable energy sources in electricity generation. Operation of the VACA facility could also be

expected to help stabilise demand for fossil fuels. Notably, the Public Utilities Commission (2003b: 8)

reported on the most emission-intense sector, transport, stating that:

The transport sector is growing steadily, with private trucks (30% of vehicles) growing at 9%

p.a. and private cars (27% of vehicles) growing at 5% p.a. The popularity of trucks is caused

in part by the driving conditions in Belize and is also due to more favourable import duties.

The huge growth in cruise ship tourism has caused a significant rise in the number of buses

and power boats. (Source: Public Utilities Commission, 2003b: 8)

Table 4.2.2: Growth trends in energy consumption in Belize, 1990 - 2009

Oil (bbls per day)

Metric Tons of CO2

1990 2,216 313,000

1991 2,472 350,000

1992 2,116 304,000

1993 2,108 301,000

1994 1,999 285,000

1995 2,294 329,000

1996 1,936 271,000

1997 3,191 439,000

1998 3,210 439,000

1999 3,257 445,000

2000 4,706 660,000

2001 6,262 863,000

2002 6,008 808,000

2003 6,285 849,000

2004 6,754 906,000

2005 7,122 966,000

2006 7,204 968,000

2007 7,300 981,000

2008 7,400 994,000

2009 7,248 973,583* * own calculation

(Source: Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, 2010)

With regard to electricity consumption, similar growth trends can be observed. In the period 2001-2010,

electricity consumption almost doubled from 256,715 MWh to 426,233 MWh. Most of this growth occurred

in the residential sector (

48

Table 4.2.3).

49

Table 4.2.3: Growth trends in electricity consumption in Belize, 2001 - 2010

Sales (MWh)

Industrial & commercial

Residential Street Lighting

Total

2001 117,828 119,144 19,743 256,715

2002 98,509 159,229 21,208 278,946

2003 109,075 175,817 22,661 307,553

2004 116,075 189,498 24,404 329,977

2005 123,701 202,419 23,606 349,726

2006 132,553 203,361 23,679 359,593

2007 143,118 214,925 23,716 381,759

2008 158,992 224,030 23,963 406,985

2009 158,452 234,596 24,326 417,374

2010 159,921 241,777 24,535 426,233

(Source: Lewis, C.V., Director Electricity Sector, Public Utilities Commission, personal communication, July 5, 2011)

Costs for energy have also increased over recent years even though retail prices for both petroleum and

LPG are regulated by the Government of Belize. In the energy sector, costs increased because of

government intervention, with Belize Electricity Limited reporting that “for the period July 1, 2007 to June

30, 2008, the reference cost of power was $0.253 per kWh. For the period July 1, 2008 to December 31,

2009 the reference cost of power was $0.312 per kWh” (BEL, 2009: 7). In 2009, actual cost of power was

lower than expected as a result of lower oil prices and higher than expected hydro production (BEL 2009:

7), but there can be little doubt that the longer-term trend is towards increasing prices for fossil fuel-based

power production.

Energy use in the tourism sector

As described in the Introduction, tourism is a mainstay of the Belize economy, with expenditures totalling

US $281.5 million in 2008 (Caribbean Tourism Organization, n.d.) and consequently generating about 23.7%

of Belize’s estimated GDP of about US $1,189 billion in 2008 (ECLAC 2010a; note that only about 4% are

attributed to hotels and restaurants; CBB, 2010)3. As outlined, along with the growth in tourism and the

economy more generally, there is also a growth trend in energy consumption (Belize Electricity Limited,

2009). The size of the contribution from tourism to energy consumption and therefore emissions is

however unknown and a more detailed analysis of tourism related emissions is thus presented in Table

4.2.4.

3 A higher estimate of Belize’s current GDP, US $1.359 billion, has been presented by Economy Watch (2011)

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Table 4.2.4: Assessment of CO2 emissions from tourism in Belize, 2009

Tourism sub-sector

Energy use Emissions % Assumptions

Aviation1) Road transport2)

Cruise ships3)

Accommodation4)

Activities5)

31,494 t fuel 1,452 t fuel

37,244 t fuel

35,8MWh -

99,206 t CO2

4,648 t CO2

119,182 t CO2

35,787 t CO2

6,274 t CO2

33 2 39 12 2

Bottom-up analysis based on main markets Including tourists, not day visitors Bunkers for cruise ships, bottom-up approach Based on energy statistics from Barbados Global average

Sub-total 265,097 t CO2 87

Indirect energy use (factor 1.15)

39,765 t CO2 15 To account for life-cycle emissions

Total 304,862 CO2 100 1) As it is unknown which volumes of aviation fuels are imported by Belize, a bottom-up analysis is here

presented based on the major markets, which include the USA (60.1%; New York, one-way distance 2,962 km), Canada (7.4%; Montreal, one-way distance 3,453 km), Europe (12.7%; London, one-way distance 8,406 km), other (19.8%, assumed one-way distance 2,000 km, due to a considerable share of cross-border arrivals). With 232,383 international arrivals, total emissions would be in the order of 198,413 t CO2 (2 x 2962 pkm (return) x 139,662 x 0.122 kg CO2 = 100,938 t CO2 – USA, plus 2 x 3,453 pkm x 17,196 x 0.122 kg CO2 = 14,488 t CO2 – Canada, plus 2 x 8,406 x 29,513 x 0.122 kg CO2= 60,533 t CO2– Europe, plus 2 x 2,000 km x 46,012 x 0.122 kg CO2= 22,454 t CO2–other).In a bunker-fuel approach, about half of this would fall on Belize, i.e. half of the fuel use and emissions associated with the tourism system of the country. Emissions are consequently in the order of 99,206 t CO2, corresponding to a fuel use of about 31,494 t.

2) Road Transport: 232,383international tourist arrivals in 2009 (Caribbean Tourism Organization, n.d.) with each tourist travelling an assumed 150 pkm in Belize during the stay. At an assumed average of 0.133 kg CO2 per pkm (50% occupancy rate; UNWTO-UNEP-WMO, 2008), emissions are in the order of 20 kg CO2 (corresponding to about 8 l of diesel) per tourist, totalling 4,648t CO2, or about 1,452t of fuel. Cruise tourists are not included, as these are day visitors not likely to engage in longer trips.

3) On the basis of the number of cruise passengers arriving to Belize (705,129 in 2009), emissions from cruise tourism would be in the order of 119,182 t CO2 – using the standard per day value (global average) of 169 kg CO2 per passenger (Eijgelaar et al., 2010).

4) According to a study carried out in Barbados in 2010, hotels (n=22) used on average 22 kWh of energy per guest night. This value is also used for Belize. In the absence of any data on average length of stay, an average of 7 days is assumed here as the basis for calculation, i.e. considering that many arrivals may be shorter because of options to access the country on land. The 232,383 tourists would consequently have stayed a total of 1.627 million nights, with a corresponding energy use of 35.8 MWh. Electricity production is assumed to be less efficient in Belize and a value of 1 kg CO2 per kWh is assumed here, resulting in emissions of 35,787 t CO2. It is unknown, however, whether there is additional significant electricity production in self-sustained hotels on the basis of generators.

5) Activities are included with the global assumption of 27 kg CO2 per tourist, as provided in UNWTO-UNEP-WMO, 2008. Given the energy-intense character of many activities in tropical environments, including boat trips, scenic drives, helicopter flights, diving, the use of jet skis, or water skiing, this value may be conservative. The 232,383 tourists would thus have caused emissions from activities corresponding to 6,274 t CO2. As energy use for activities will be partially fossil fuel and partly electricity based, it is difficult to translate these values into energy use.

(Source: DEFRA, 2010; UNWTO-UNEP-WMO, 2008; UNWTO, 2010)

Results indicate that emissions from tourism accounted for 304,862 t CO2 in 2009. In comparison to

national emissions of 973,583 t CO2, emissions caused by the tourism system are responsible for the

equivalent of about 31% of national emissions (a share of these emissions is accounted for in both national

economy and tourism-system estimates and an exact comparison is therefore difficult).

National energy policy and initiatives

Belize does not have an established Energy Policy, but in 2003, a review by the Public Utilities Commission

concluded that:

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Given the current energy mix (imports 71%, indigenous 29%), energy security and improving

energy autarky should be significant issues for policymakers:

Belize does not have a formally stated energy sector strategy nor policy, although

an argument could be made that there is an implicit one;

The current electricity mix with 50% imported from Mexico is not sustainable given

that demand is growing at 9% p.a. The Mexican supply is currently limited and if

additional supply can be negotiated (under a new contract) it is likely to be

significantly more expensive;

The use of renewable energies is technically, environmentally and economically

feasible and given the exigencies of the internal and external environment, is highly

recommended;

There are barriers to the use of Renewable Energy Technologies and to the

development and implementation of a formal energy policy;

Policymakers cannot afford to disregard regional and international agreements and

the significance of existing and future commitments (particularly in trade) to the

development of the energy sector;

Belize needs to take immediate and decisive action if it is to comfortably meet

electricity and energy demand forecasts without increasing its vulnerability and/or

compromising its future development;

(Source: Public Utilities Commission, 2003a:7)

The Public Utilities Commission (2003b) also made policy recommendations of great relevance for the

development of a national energy policy:

1. Energy Policy, Coordination and Oversight

Develop a comprehensive National Energy Policy, using a multi- stakeholder

dialogue process.

Mandate within the policy that a 10-12 year National Energy Implementation Plan

be created (and regularly updated) detailing potential energy sources and

technologies, timescales and investments required to service Belize’s growing

energy demands in a sustainable manner.

An Office of Energy should be created under the Office of the Prime Minister, within

the Government of Belize, with responsibility for the oversight and planning of the

Government’s approach on energy issues. The Office would be responsible for the

National Energy Policy and Implementation Plan and for overseeing and

coordinating their implementation within the various Government Departments.

The Office of Energy should be staffed with technically qualified personnel and

advised by a multi-sectoral committee of energy stakeholders from industry and

civil society.

Energy data should be collected and analysed on a regular basis and a national

energy balance produced annually for supply to regional and world energy

organisations. The responsibility for energy data should be placed with the Office of

Energy.

Identify regional energy networks and initiatives that have potential benefit to

Belize (such as the Caribbean Energy Efficiency Development Project (DEEPC), the

Caribbean Renewable Energy Development Project (CREDP), the Finnish

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Government’s Energy and Environment Partnership with Central America, the

Caribbean Energy Information System (CEIS), the Latin American Energy

Organization (OLADE) and the Biomass Users Network in Central America (BUN-

CA)). Proactively participate, by ensuring qualified personnel attend meetings and

liase with the secretariats and project managers.

2. Fossil Fuels

Petroleum exploration and development in Belize should continue to be supported

and encouraged, in an environmentally sound manner; as a potential source of

revenue and a national supply of fuel which translates to increased fuel security,

fuel price stability and a reduction in foreign currency requirements.

A single grade of unleaded gasoline should be used in order to achieve volume

purchase benefits and to realize cost savings from the consolidation of storage and

supply. These savings should be used to reduce the consumer price of fuel (with the

legislated price formula adjusted accordingly).

Considering the negative impact of illegal fuel sales, these sales should be stopped

(through diligent policing) in order to reduce the fuel tax burden on the customers

of legal supplies.

3. Transport

The use of fuel-efficient vehicles should be encouraged, for example through

incentives to promote the importation of newer, small-engine, more fuel efficient

vehicles. At the same time a public awareness campaign should be conducted on

the benefits of fuel economy.

Belize should initiate a programme of baseline pollution monitoring, so that

emissions and their impacts can be measured over time. On the basis of the

pollution monitoring, Belize should set emissions standards for motor vehicles and

should work towards emissions testing vehicles. The testing should be introduced in

a structured manner over an extended period of time, allowing the public and

relevant authorities to prepare. A public awareness campaign should be a key

element of the process.

The improvement of public (mass) transport should be encouraged (fuel economy,

emissions, quality of service) and the public should then be encouraged to use this

form of transport.

Conduct a study on the environmental impact of high speed power boats in Belize.

4. Electricity Services

Generation should continue to be unbundled and sourced through appropriate

competitive bidding procedures with oversight responsibility provided by the PUC.

Bids should continue to be evaluated using country specific evaluation criteria such

as seeking the lowest real electricity prices attainable, tempered as required by

environmental and social considerations.

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Based on the comprehensive renewable energy resource assessment and the long

term projected generation requirements, establish a Renewable Energy Portfolio

Standard (RPS) as a target for the percentage of electricity that must be generated

using renewable sources and a minimum local generation standard for the

percentage of electricity that must be generated using local sources.

Develop generation plant standards, in addition to the Pollution Regulations and

the required Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), which ensure that operations

comply with international environmental standards.

5. Renewable Energy Initiatives

Conduct renewable energy resource assessments for hydro, wind, biomass,

geothermal and solar energy and compile these into a single Renewable Energy

Resource Database for use in promoting Belize as a destination for renewable-

energy investments. The database should not only identify resources, but should

contain potential project proposals. An accompanying investor’s information pack

should be developed, targeted to local investors as a priority.

Design and initiate a national renewable energy education and awareness

programme aimed at all sectors of civil society, to communicate the overall goals of

the Government with respect to the country’s economic development, protection of

the environment and the links to and advantages of renewables. This programme

should include an extra curricular component, including activity development to

introduce energy issues to young people.

Establish a comprehensive renewable energy training initiative to compliment the

resources identified, with the purpose of increasing the capacity to develop and

utilise these resources among the utility staff and potential project developers. This

effort should be conducted in cooperation with other countries in the region, in

particular as part of the Caribbean Renewable Energy Development Project

(CREDP).

Where companies install and utilise renewable energy technologies in Belize, they

should be required to train local personnel at all levels in the management,

installation, operation and maintenance of the equipment.

Conduct a gender and culture sensitive analysis on traditional biomass use. The

analysis should determine the impact of traditional biomass use on human health,

the environment and the economy. In particular, the issues of deforestation and

health threats resulting from the use of fuel wood for cooking and small industry

should be examined. Recommendations should be made for energy patterns based,

in part, on the analysis (e.g. replacement of fuel wood with liquid petroleum gas,

biogas, etc.), or alternative options (such as the promotion of more efficient,

appropriate and culturally sensitive biomass technologies for cooking and the

replanting of fast growing, appropriate trees). The analysis should also contain long

term implementation plans, learning from previous initiatives conducted in rural

areas.

The logistics and feasibility of the creation of a dedicated renewable energy fund for

renewable energy project feasibility studies and for project investment should be

investigated.

A detailed knowledge of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) should be

developed centrally, as an advisory service to renewable energy project developers,

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to ensure that Belize gains maximum benefit from the CDM and associated

initiatives.

Create a National Solar Water Heating Initiative. This would involve an awareness

programme to educate both the commercial and the residential sectors (especially

targeting the tourism industry), creating financial incentives for the purchase of

solar water heaters (e.g. tax rebates) and providing assistance to manufacturers

and vendors of solar water heaters to enter Belize’s marketplace.

Conduct an assessment of the potential for solar and wind pumps in rural water

systems. The assessment should cover total lifecycle cost and maintenance and

operational requirements.

Review available wind assessment reports to date and conduct an up-to-date

analysis of wind generation on Baldy Beacon. Based on this analysis conduct a pre-

feasibility study for a grid-connected wind farm.

Any benefits of using ethanol to reduce emissions, increase fuel security and

increase price stability, whilst utilizing and investing in the local agricultural

industry should be evaluated against the total cost of producing the ethanol and

adapting the existing gasoline infrastructure to accommodate an ethanol blend.

6. Energy Efficiency Initiatives

Implement a comprehensive energy efficiency training program for utility

personnel, hotel developers and engineers, potential entrepreneurs and other

relevant stakeholders.

The Belize Building Codes should be reviewed to include potential energy saving

design features.

Appliance importers should be educated about energy efficiency and encouraged to

import energy efficient appliances.

Design and initiate a national energy-efficiency education and awareness

programme aimed at all sectors of civil society, to communicate the overall goals of

the Government with respect to the country’s economic development, protection of

the environment and the links to and advantages of energy-efficiency. This

programme can be conducted in conjunction with the awareness programme on

renewable energy.

A study of energy end use practices in all sectors (public, commercial, residential,

etc.) of the economy should be conducted in collaboration with BEL and an

organisation experienced in conducting surveys. This study will highlight key

opportunities for energy savings.

A survey/analysis of the market potential for energy efficiency measures should be

undertaken. This will review generation and consumption patterns throughout

Belize in each of the key sectors. These analyses will be used in the design of

appropriate energy-efficiency measures and in efforts to attract entrepreneurial

initiatives focused on energy savings.

Incentives should be provided such as reduction in import duties for energy efficient

equipment (e.g. compact fluorescent bulbs) to encourage their importation and use.

Support the creation of Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) in Belize through

workshops, information provision and linkages to countries with ESCO experience.

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Assess the potential for energy efficiency practices in all Government buildings.

Based on this assessment, develop a standards manual for use by all government

agencies describing recommended and/or required practices for existing and new

buildings and equipment. Conduct energy audits in all Government buildings.

(Source: Public Utilities Commission, 2003b)

Subsequently, a project was implemented called “Formulation of a National Energy Plan for Belize” as a

precursor to the crafting of the national energy policy, where a diagnostic study of the energy sector was

conducted and a document of policy recommendations was produced (Belize Public Utilities Commission,

2005). It is intended that these documents would guide and feed into the development of the National

Energy Policy. However, although CIPORE (2009) indicates that a draft policy has been completed, there

does not appear to be a copy of the draft online.

In 2006, in response to price cuts in sugar by major export markets, the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB)

and the Caribbean Renewable Energy Development Program (CREDP) within the Caribbean Community

Secretariat (CARICOM) developed a technical cooperation called “Expanding bio-fuel opportunities through

carbon finance in three Caribbean Countries – Jamaica, Barbados and Guyana” (CTA & IICA, 2007). The

objective was to analyse viable alternatives to conventional sugar production, such as bio-fuels,

cogeneration with bagasse and efficient sugar production. The assessment included a thorough review of

the state of the art bio-fuels in these three countries and the carbon finance opportunities that could be

obtained in relation to the possible bio-fuel projects. Specifically, the announcement of a target of a 20%

reduction of gasoline usage over the next 20 years in the US is seen as an opportunity for exports, as up to

7% of total US ethanol consumption can be imported without import duties. This corresponds to 340

million gallons per year and is expected to reach 525 million gallons by 2012, a threefold increase over the

current level of Caribbean ethanol exports to the US.

To achieve this goal, several steps are seen as necessary:

There has to be availability of raw material (i.e. sugarcane, cassava, sugar beet,

African palm, jatropha) at a competitive cost of production.

Use has to be made of the possibility to sell carbon credits derived from the

reductions of CO2 emissions, in response to mitigation of climate change in

compliance with the Kyoto Protocol.

The launching of the Caribbean, Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Bioenergy

Action Program (CREBAP) must be followed up by governments, which need to

“establish targets, such as blending mandates or percentage of electricity

generation with renewable sources”.

(Source: CTA & IICA, 2007)

In 2009, the Organization of American States (2009) presented the results of a feasibility study on the

Cellulosic Ethanol Market Potential in Belize. The study concludes that there are considerable quantities of

biomass that could be used for ethanol production, with 1.4 million tons of cellulose feedstocks produced

in 2004 and a similar amount in 2005, which could be used to produce 85.6 – 89.6 million gallons of ethanol

per year, though the realistic volume is estimated at 46 million gallons per year in the initial stages of

production. Commercially attractive ethanol production technology is however not expected to become

available before 2012. The feasibility study also notes that the price competitiveness of ethanol is highly

dependent on the price of oil.

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Obstacles to making use of biofuels potential are mostly seen in the absence of a suitable biofuels policy,

the absence of an overall energy policy and the lack of experience in Belize with the development and use

of ethanol due to the fact that there is no domestic production at this time (Organization of American

States, 2009). Notably, the report does not discuss potential interference of ethanol production with food

production, a growing concern of the United Nations.

4.2.3. Vulnerability of the energy sector to climate change

Two key impacts related to energy and emissions are of relevance for the tourism sector and the wider

economy. First of all, energy prices have fluctuated in the past and there is evidence that the cost of oil on

world markets will continue to increase. Secondly, if the international communities’ climate objective of

stabilizing temperatures at 2°C by 2100 is taken seriously, both regulation and market-based instruments

will have to be implemented to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. Such measures would affect the cost of

mobility, in particular, air transport, being a highly energy- and emission-intense sector. The following

sections will discuss past and future energy costs, the challenges of global climate policy and how these

interact to create vulnerabilities in the Belize tourism sector and the vulnerabilities of the energy

infrastructure.

Energy costs

High and rising energy costs should self-evidently lead to interest in more efficient operations, but this does

not appear to be the case in tourism generally. Since the turn of the 19th Century, world oil prices only once

exceeded those of the energy crisis in 1979 after the Iranian revolution. Even though oil prices declined

because of the global financial crisis in 2008 (Figure 4.2.5) – for the first time since 1981 (IEA, 2009) - world

oil prices have already begun to climb again in 2009 and are projected to rise further. The International

Energy Agency (IEA) (IEA, 2010) projects for instance, that oil prices will almost double between 2009-2035

(in 2009 prices). Notably, Figure 4.2.5 shows the decline in oil prices in 2009; in March 2011, Bloomberg

reported Brent spot prices exceeding US $120/barrel.

Figure 4.2.5: Crude oil prices 1869 - 2009 (Source: after Williams, 2010)

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The IEA anticipates that even under its New Policies Scenario, which favours energy efficiency and

renewable energies, energy demand will be 36% higher in 2035 than in 2008, with fossil fuels continuing to

dominate demand (IEA, 2010). At the same time there is reason to believe that ‘peak oil’, i.e. the maximum

capacity to produce oil, may be passed in the near future. The UK Energy Research Centre, for instance,

concludes in a review of studies that a global peak in oil production is likely before 2030, with a significant

risk of a peak before 2020 (UKERC, 2009). Note that while there are options to develop alternative fuels,

considerable uncertainties are associated with these options, for instance with regard to costs, safety,

biodiversity loss, or competition with food production (e.g. Harvey and Pilgrim, 2011). Fuel costs in Belize

are regulated by the Government. Rising costs for conventional fuels will therefore become increasingly

relevant, particularly for transport, the sector most dependent on fossil fuels with the least options to

substitute energy sources. Within the transport sector, aviation will be most affected due to limited options

to use alternative fuels, which have to meet specific demands regarding safety and energy-density (cf.

Nygren et al., 2009; Upham et al., 2009). Likewise, while there are huge unconventional oil resources,

including natural gas, heavy oil and tar sands, oil shales and coal, there are long lead times in development,

necessitating significant investments. The development of these oil sources is also likely to lead to

considerably greater environmental impacts than the development of conventional oil resources (IEA,

2009).

These findings are relevant for the tourism system as a whole because mobility is a precondition for

tourism. Rising oil prices will usually be passed on to the customer, a situation evident in 2008, when many

airlines added a fuel surcharge to plane tickets in order to compensate for the spike in oil prices. Increased

travel costs can lead to a shift from long haul- to shorter-haul destinations. The cost of energy is one of the

most important determinants in the way people travel and the price of oil will influence travel patterns,

with some evidence that in particular low-fare and long-haul flights are susceptible to changes in prices

(e.g. Mayor and Tol, 2008). Moreover, it deserves mention that oil prices are not a simple function of

supply and demand, involving different parameters such as long-term contracts and hedging strategies,

social and political stability in oil producing countries as well as the global security situation generally. This

is well illustrated in the volatility of oil prices in the five-year period 2002 - 2009, when the world market

price of aviation fuel oscillated between a low of US $25 in 2002 (Doganis, 2006) and US $147 in mid-2008

(Gössling and Upham, 2009).

The huge rise in oil prices, which was not expected by most actors in tourism, had a severe impact

particularly on aviation. As late as December 2007, IATA projected the average 2008-price of a barrel of oil

at US $87, up 6 per cent from the average price level in 2007 (IATA, 2007). In early 2008, IATA corrected its

projection of fuel prices to an average of US $106 per barrel for 2008, an increase of 22% over its previous

estimate. However, in July 2008, oil prices reached US $147 per barrel and IATA corrected its forecast for

average oil prices in 2008 to almost US $142 per barrel, a price 75% higher than a year ago (IATA, 2008). In

autumn 2008, again seemingly unexpected by the overwhelming majority of actors in tourism, the global

financial system collapsed due to speculation of financial institutions with various forms of investment. As a

result, the global economy went into recession and by the end of 2008, oil prices had reached a low of

US $40 per barrel.

Fuel price volatility, in late 2008 exceeding 30% of operational costs (IATA 2009, see Figure 4.2.6), had a

range of negative impacts for airlines. Before the financial crisis, it appeared as if low-fare carriers would be

severely affected by high fuel prices, with even profitable airlines reporting falling profits, grounded aircraft

and cancelled routes: high fuel prices had clearly affected the perception of travellers to fly at quasi-zero

costs (cf. Gössling and Upham, 2009). However, when fuel costs declined because of the financial crisis, low

cost carriers were apparently seen by many travellers as the only airlines still offering flights at reasonable

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prices, reversing passenger choices to the disadvantage of the flag carriers. These examples show that high

and rising oil prices, as well as price volatility can significantly affect tourism and in particular airlines,

increasing destination vulnerability.

Figure 4.2.6: Fuel costs as part of a worldwide operating cost (Source: IATA, 2009)

Climate policy

As described in the introduction climate change is high on the global political agenda, but so far, the

European Union is the only region in the world with a legally binding target for emission reductions,

imposed on the largest polluters. While it is likely that the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) will not

seriously affect aviation, the only tourism sub-sector to be directly integrated in the scheme by 2012 e.g.

(Mayor and Tol, 2009), see also (Gössling et al., 2008), discussions are on-going on how to control emissions

from consumption not covered by the EU ETS. This is likely to lead to the introduction of significant carbon

taxes in the EU in the near future (EurActiv, 2009). Moreover, the EU ETS will set a tighter cap on emissions

year-on-year and in the medium-term, i.e. around 2015 - 2025 it can be assumed that the consumption of

energy-intense products and services will become perceivably more expensive. There is also evidence of

greater consumer pressure to implement pro-climate policies. While climate policy is only emerging in

other regions, it can be assumed that in the near future, further legislation to reduce emissions will be

introduced – the new air passenger duty in the UK is a recent example and has already been followed by

Germany’s departure tax (as of January 1, 2011).

As of November 1, 2009, the UK introduced a new air passenger duty (APD) for aviation, which replaced its

earlier, two-tiered APD. The new APD distinguishes four geographical bands, representing one-way

distances from London to the capital city of the destination country/territory and based on two rates, one

for standard class of travel and one for other classes of travel (Table 4.2.5).

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Table 4.2.5: UK air passenger duty as of November 1, 2009

Band and approximate distance in miles from

In the lowest class of travel (reduced rate)

In other than the lowest class of travel*

(Standard rate)

From November 1, 2009 to October 31, 2010

From November 1, 2010

From November 1, 2009 to October 31, 2010

From November 1, 2010

Band A (0-2000) £11 £12 £22 £24

Band B (2001-4000) £45 £60 £90 £120

Band C (4001-6000) £50 £75 £100 £150

Band D (over 6000) £55 £85 £110 £170 *The reduced rates apply where the passengers are carried in the lowest class of travel on any flight unless the seat

pitch exceeds 1.016 metres (40 inches), in which case, whether there is one or more than one class of travel the standard rates apply.

(Source: HM Revenue & Customs, 2008)

Scientifically, there is general consensus that a “serious” climate policy approach will be paramount in the

transformation of tourism towards becoming climatically sustainable, as significant technological

innovation and behavioural change will demand strong regulatory environments (e.g. Barr et al., 2010;

Bows et al., 2009; Hickman and Banister, 2007; see also Giddens, 2009). As outlined by (Scott et al., 2010),

“serious” would include the endorsement of national and international mitigation policies by tourism

stakeholders, a global closed emission trading scheme for aviation and shipping, the introduction of

significant and constantly rising carbon taxes on fossil fuels, incentives for low-carbon technologies and

transport infrastructure and, ultimately, the development of a vision for a fundamentally different global

tourism economy.

While this would demand a rather radical change from current business models in tourism, all of these

aspects of a low-carbon tourism system are principally embraced by business organisations. For instance,

the World Economic Forum (WEF, 2009) suggests as mechanisms to achieve emission reductions i) a carbon

tax on non-renewable fuels, ii) economic incentives for low-carbon technologies, iii) a cap-and-trade system

for developing and developed countries and iv) the further development of carbon trading markets.

Furthermore, evidence from countries seeking to implement low-carbon policies suggests that the tourism

businesses themselves also call for the implementation of legislation to curb emissions, a result of the wish

for “rules for all”, with pro-climate oriented businesses demanding regulation and the introduction of

market-based instruments to reduce emissions (cf. Ernst & Young, 2010; PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2010).

There is consequently growing consensus among business leaders and policy makers that emissions of

greenhouse gases represent a market failure. The absence of a price on pollution encourages pollution,

prevents innovation and creates a market situation where there is little incentive to innovate (OECD, 2010).

While governments have a wide range of environmental policy tools at their disposal to address this

problem, including regulatory instruments, market-based instruments, agreements, subsidies, or

information campaigns, the fairest and most efficient way of reducing emissions is increasingly seen in

higher fuel prices, i.e. the introduction of a tax on fuel or emissions (e.g. Sterner, 2007; Mayor and Tol,

2007, 2008, 2009, 2010a, b; see also OECD, 2009 and 2010; WEF, 2009; PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2010).

Compared to other environmental instruments, such as regulations concerning emission

intensities or technology prescriptions, environmentally related taxation encourages both

the lowest cost abatement across polluters and provides incentives for abatement at each

unit of pollution. These taxes can also be a highly transparent policy approach, allowing

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citizens to clearly see if individual sectors or pollution sources are being favoured over

others. (Source: OECD, 2010)

The overall conclusion is that emerging climate policy may be felt more in the future and tourism

stakeholders should seek to prepare for this. The policy recommendations put forward by the PUC include

suggestions for incentives to promote fuel efficient cars, the creation of a renewable energy fund and

incentives for solar water heaters and energy efficient equipment. There is no specific reference for

including a direct fuel tax; however, the current price regulation may well include some component of

taxation.

Vulnerabilities

Generally, a destination could be understood as vulnerable when it is highly dependent on tourism and

when its tourism system is energy intense with only a limited share of revenues staying in the national

economy. Figure 4.2.7 shows this for various countries, expressed as a climate policy risk assessment.

Destination climate policy risk assessment: eco-efficiency and tourism revenues as share of GDP. Notes: Lines represent the weighted average values for all 10 countries; H is either high (unfavourable) eco-efficiency or high dependency on tourism, L is either low (favourable) eco-efficiency or low dependency on tourism, eco-efficiency=local spending compared to total emissions, i.e. not considering air fares.

Figure 4.2.7: Vulnerability of selected countries, measured as eco-efficiency and revenue share (Source: Gössling et al., 2008)

While global climate policy affecting transportation is currently only emerging, there are already a number

of publications seeking to analyse the consequences of climate policy for tourism dependent countries.

There is general consensus that current climate policy is not likely to affect mobility because international

aviation is exempted from value added tax (VAT), a situation not likely to change in the near future due to

the existence of a large number of bilateral agreements. Furthermore, emissions trading as currently

envisaged by the EU would, upon implementation in 2012, increase the cost of flying by just about €3 per

1,000 passenger-kilometres (pkm) at permit prices of €25 per tonne of CO2 (Scott et al., 2010). Similar

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findings are presented by Mayor and Tol (2010b), who model that a price of €23/t CO2 per permit will have

a negligible effect on emissions developments. Other considerable increases in transport costs due to

taxation are not currently apparent in any of the 45 countries studied by OECD & UNEP (2011), though such

taxes may be implemented in the future. The example of the UK has been outlined above and Germany

introduced a departure tax of €8, €25 and €45 for flights <2000 km, 2000-4000 km and >4,000 km as of 1

January 2011.

The implications of the EU ETS for tourism in some countries were modelled by Gössling et al. (2008). The

study examined the implications of the EU-ETS for European outbound travel costs and tourism demand for

ten tourism-dependent less developed countries with diverse geographic and tourism market

characteristics. It confirmed that the EU-ETS would only marginally affect demand to these countries, i.e.

causing a slight delay in growth in arrival numbers from Europe through to 2020, when growth in arrivals

would be 0.2% to 5.8% lower than in the baseline scenario (Gössling et al., 2008).

As the (Gössling et al.,2008) study only looked at climate policy, but omitted oil prices, (Pentelow and Scott,

2010) modelled the consequences of a combination of climate policy and rising oil prices. A tourist arrivals

model was constructed to understand how North American and European tourist demand to the Caribbean

region would be affected. A sensitivity analysis that included 18 scenarios with different combinations of

three GHG mitigation policy scenarios for aviation (represented by varied carbon prices), two oil price

projections and three price elasticity estimates was conducted to examine the impact on air travel arrivals

from eight outbound market nations to the Caribbean region. Pentelow and Scott (2010) concluded that a

combination of low carbon price and low oil price would have very little impact on arrivals growth to the

Caribbean region through to 2020, with arrivals 1.28% to 1.84% lower than in the BAU scenario (the range

attributed to the price elasticities chosen). The impact of a high carbon price and high oil price scenario was

more substantive, with arrivals 2.97% to 4.29% lower than the 2020 BAU scenario depending on the price

elasticity value used. The study concluded:

It is important to emphasize that the number of arrivals to the region would still be

projected to grow from between 19.7 million to 19.9 million in 2010 to a range of 30.1

million to 31.0 million in 2020 (Source: Pentelow and Scott, 2010).

A detailed case study of Jamaica further revealed the different sensitivity of market segments (package

vacations) to climate policy and oil price related rises in air travel costs (Pentelow and Scott, 2010); see also

(Schiff and Becken, 2010) for a New Zealand study of price elasticities. (Pentelow and Scott, 2010)

concluded that further research is required to understand the implications of oil price volatility and climate

policy for tourist mobility, tour operator routing and the longer- term risks to tourism development in the

Caribbean. Overall, current frameworks to mitigate GHG emissions from aviation do not seem to represent

a substantial threat to tourism development (Mayor and Tol, 2007; Gössling et al., 2008; Rothengatter,

2009), but new regulatory regimes and market based instruments to reduce emissions in line with global

policy objectives would cause changes in the global tourism system that could affect in particular SIDS. To

anticipate these changes and to prepare the vulnerable tourism economies in the Caribbean to these

changes should thus be a key management goal for tourism stakeholders.

Climate change impacts on energy generation, distribution and infrastructure

A report on the potential impacts of climate change on the energy sector published by the U.S. Department

of Energy distinguishes between direct impacts: which affect energy resource availability, fuel and power

production, transmission and distribution processes; and indirect impacts which are brought on by other

sectors through forward or reverse linkages with the energy sector and may include competition for shared

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resources, trends in demand and supply and pricing. These impacts are not only limited to traditional (fossil

fuel based) energy systems, but renewable systems as well. While direct impacts are more visible, the costs

of indirect impacts can be difficult to quantify and often exceed those of direct impacts, given the inter-

relationships between energy and other sectors (U.S. Department of Energy/National Energy Technology

Laboratory, 2007). Similarly, Contreras-Lisperguer and de Cuba (2008) have outlined a number of potential

impacts of climate change on both traditional and renewable energy systems, with varying consequences

for energy production and transmission efficiency, energy prices and trends in demand and consumption.

Belize’s energy production is a mix of fossil fuel powered plants, biomass, hydropower and imported

electricity (Public Utilities Commission, 2003a). There is also a considerable amount of effort being focussed

on expansion into ethanol production (Organization of American States, 2009; CTA & IICA, 2007). Solar and

wind power are also highlighted as areas for potential expansion (Public Utilities Commission, 2003b).

Potential physical climate change impacts specific to traditional energy production systems as well as the

identified renewable technologies being considered are outlined below. Special consideration should be

given to the physical impacts of climate change that can affect these systems in the planning process.

An increase in the intensity (and possibly frequency) of severe low pressure systems, such as hurricanes,

has the potential to affect both traditional and renewable energy production and distribution

infrastructure, including generating plants, transmission lines and pipelines. The energy-based

infrastructure in Belize is therefore vulnerable to impacts from tropical storms and hurricanes during any

given year. Some of the more vulnerable components of the energy system include transmission lines,

poles and other relatively light, above ground infrastructure, which can suffer significant damage from high

winds. Hurricane Richard in 2010 impacted power supply for several days and damages were estimated at

BZ $250,000. Loss of power also impacted the water supply in some rural communities where there are no

back-up generators for water pumps (NEMO, 2010b) (see Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management

section). Modern wind turbines stop rotating when wind speed exceeds approximately 55 mph to protect

the equipment and the structures are typically designed to withstand winds in excess of 150 mph. Other

installations are designed to be winched down in the event of an approaching hurricane. These types of

problems should be carefully considered during the planning of any wind farm developments. In the

aftermath of extreme weather, the process of restoring transmission and proper operation of generating

facilities depends on road access and the amount of supplies available to replace infrastructure

components that have been damaged or destroyed. The vulnerability of the sector to extreme weather

events therefore has even greater implications for increasing the recovery period and extending the loss of

productivity in all other sectors within the country following an event (U.S. Department of Energy/National

Energy Technology Laboratory, 2007; IPCC, 2007b; Contreras-Lisperguer & de Cuba, 2008). Belize has a

Hazard Mitigation Plan that speaks to the vulnerability of key infrastructure and identifies specific electrical

facilities that are vulnerable to hazards (Development Solutions Ltd, 2006).

Model projections for Belize suggest an increase in mean annual temperatures, as well as the number of

‘hot’ days and nights to as much as 80% of the days per year by 2080 and a possible disappearance of ‘cold’

nights (see Climate Modelling section). National energy demand and consumption for cooling purposes

may increase in response to extremes in diurnal temperatures. Higher temperatures have also been shown

to reduce the efficiency of energy generation at thermal power plants, similar to those in Belize. The

climate modelling projections also indicate a decrease in mean annual rainfall, (although these predictions

are more uncertain than temperature changes) which may affect water availability for non-contact cooling

of power generators (Contreras-Lisperguer & de Cuba, 2008; also see Water Quality and Availability

section). Similar impacts are likely to apply to biomass systems.

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Belize has additional capacity from hydropower, is investigating the feasibility of developing a bio-fuel

industry to supply ethanol and looking at potential expansion into wind and solar power. Alternative energy

sources, while they are environmentally more sustainable, also face challenges from climate variability.

Hydro power systems depend on levels of precipitation, temperature and evapo-transpiration. Extremes in

any of these variables have implications for stream flow and water availability and flow quality for hydro

power generation (Contreras-Lisperguer & de Cuba, 2008). Therefore low water quantity and a low flow

quality will prohibit optimum production from hydro-power systems. Conversely, excessive water levels

and rapid flows from flooding may exceed the maximum capacity of hydro-power systems to operate

effectively (see Water Quality and Availability section). The combined effects of temperature and rainfall

variability will also impact on biofuel production systems. Changes in temperature and rainfall over time

and changes in seasonal weather patterns will affect the yield of dedicated energy crops (e.g. sugar cane)

and result in lower biofuel production with a decline in crop production.

Wind is generated by temperature gradients which result from differential heating of the earth’s surface.

Based on this relationship, changes in spatial temperature gradients caused by land use change, reductions

in solar incidence and changes in atmospheric circulation can be argued to result in wind pattern shifts and

therefore wind energy potential. Climate models project increases in wind speed for Belize, which augers

well for expansion in this area (see Climate Modelling section). Similarly, changes in solar radiation

incidence and increases in temperature can impact the effectiveness of electrical generation by

photovoltaic cells and solar thermal energy collection. The projected increase in the number of sunshine

hours for Belize over the next few decades, however, increases the viability of using photovoltaic

technology – even if only on the basis of increasing incidence of sunshine (IPCC, 2007b; Contreras-

Lisperguer & de Cuba, 2008).

Climate change, ocean-based impacts on the energy system include storm surge events and SLR. These

processes are a threat primarily to infrastructure located within the coastal zone and within the impact

range of these events. (Simpson et al., 2010) highlight that some key impact scenarios for Belize,

considering their geophysical nature; include flooding caused by storms and SLR, salt water intrusion,

erosion of mangroves, coral bleaching and coral erosion from storms and tsunamis. Power generating

stations and other major infrastructure located on the coastline are therefore highly vulnerable to impacts

resulting from SLR and storm induced surges.

The likelihood of climate change impacting on energy systems will vary. However, an assessment of the

vulnerability of Belize’s systems should be prioritised, especially in the case of renewable energy sources

that are being planned and which depend on specific climate parameters and priority coastal infrastructure

such as power plants. Some of this has already been undertaken as part of the Hazard Mitigation Planning,

but should be expanded and standardised in the processes for all future planning (Development Solutions

Ltd, 2006).

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4.3. Agriculture and Food Security

4.3.1. Background

Climate change related impacts on agriculture have in recent times been the focus of discussion and

research on an international level. It is anticipated that climatic change will diminish agricultural potentials

in some regions thereby affecting the global food system. The IAASTD Global Report (International

Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development, 2009) stresses the need

to adopt a more practical approach to agricultural research that requires participation from farmers who

hold the traditional knowledge in food production.

This research examines the relationship between agriculture and tourism within the framework of climate

change and seeks to develop adaptations options to support national food security based on experience

and knowledge gained from local small-scale farmers and agricultural technicians. The study is exploratory

in nature and the findings will be assimilated to develop national and regional projects that promote

climate conscious farms and sustainable food production in the Caribbean.

4.3.2. The importance of agriculture to national development

Agriculture is the bedrock of the Belizean economy. According to the World Bank (2009), agriculture is the

most important economic sector in Belize in terms of income generation, employment, food security and

poverty alleviation. The Belize Audubon Society, (2008) indicates that the economic value of primary

agriculture products exceeded BZ $373 million in 2007, while for primary non-traditional (fruits, vegetables

and livestock) agriculture exceeded $182.6 million. Agriculture contributes 12% of GDP and over 57% of

total export earnings. In 2006, 18.5% of GDP and 23.5% of total employment was either directly or

indirectly dependent on agricultural production and the food processing industry.

More than $292 million (88% of export earnings in agriculture) is generated by three commodities: citrus

products, sugar and bananas (The Belize Audubon Society, 2008). The remaining main export earners are

papaya, red kidney beans, black-eyed peas, with pepper sauce and cocoa beans being minor earners.

(Singh et al., 2005) explain that domestic agriculture includes rice, maize, beans, root crops, vegetables,

poultry, beef and pigs.

A report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (Merrill, 2010) states that the Ministry’s goals are to

create year-round employment for farm families, increase farm income, alleviate poverty, minimise youth

migration to urban areas, seek new markets for produce, continue market-driven research and

development, build capacity in the sector and provide access to affordable credit. The Ministry’s mandate is

to maintain agriculture as the economic pillar of Belize and to ensure food security, develop risk

management, generate income and foreign exchange, create employment and conserve natural resources.

To this end, the Government of Belize has invested in projects aimed at increasing production, productivity

and quality of produce for basic food items including corn, rice, beans, eggs and meat.

Additionally, protected agriculture systems, irrigation systems and the development of integrated farming

systems were promoted to provide alternative sources of income for farmers. The aquaculture sub-sector is

now firmly established as a significant contributor to the Belizean economy; and the full scope for

aquaculture development has been estimated at BZ $908,200,000 per annum. The fishing industry

contributes significantly to the economy of Belize mostly from exports of lobster, conch and shrimp.

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4.3.3. An analysis of the agricultural sector in Belize

Historically, Belizean agriculture has been heavily export oriented, with long-standing industries for sugar,

bananas and citrus products. These industries continue to dominate Belize‘s agricultural exports, with

modest gains achieved in export diversification through a small but competitive papaya export sector and a

still small but growing level of trade in beans, peas and various condiments (World Bank, 2009). A once

vibrant trade in shrimp and other fish products (exceeding US $50 million per annum in the early 2000s) has

substantially contracted in recent years (with 2008 exports of US $22 million) due to price competition from

East Asian countries in the main destination markets.

FAO (2011) explains that agriculture in Belize is characterized by three main sub-sectors: a) a fairly well

organized traditional export sector for sugar, banana, citrus and marine products, b) a more traditional,

small-scale farm sector, producing food mainly for local consumption and c) a well integrated large-scale

commercial sector.

Research by IFAD (2008) reveals that the majority of small farmers mainly produce maize, beans and rice. In

remote rural areas, small farmers practice a traditional shifting (slash & burn) cultivation system called

Milpa which contributes significantly to domestic food production. Milpa cultivation is predominantly found

in indigenous communities in the southern districts. Singh et al., (2005) assert that farming in Belize is

uniquely distinct from the rest of CARICOM with respect to its major farming systems – the Milpa and the

Mennonite farming systems. The Milpa system is one of shifting cultivation on a rotational basis for each

production cycle. Small farmers, primarily of indigenous origin grow corn and beans in sparsely populated

areas, traditionally for their own consumption. Alternatively the Mennonites use a farming system which is

more cooperative and community driven in scope. Major commodities grown by the Mennonites include

poultry, dairy-based products, corn and other grains, vegetables and beans.

The farming population consists of approximately 11,000 farmers, operating on about 5% of the agricultural

land area. Small farmers in Belize account for more than 75% of the farming population. A large

percentage of these small farms produce primary export crops such as sugar, bananas and citrus, while

others concentrate on domestic food crops, viz., rice, maize, beans, root crops and vegetables.

4.3.4. Women and youth in Belizean agriculture

In Belize women are more oriented to organic farming than traditional methods. However, they struggle

more with access to land and access to credit. Female farmers also tend to organize themselves into

women’s groups with collective ownership to resources in contrast to the male farmers who operate as

individual entities with individual or family ownership to property (Barnett et al., 2010).

Women groups occasionally receive financial and technical support mainly from non-government

organisations and they come together for training and other support services through the Agriculture

Department. Through discussions on The National Development Consultation for Belize, (Barnett et al.,

2010) discovered that the situation of organic cacao production in Toledo differs from this overall pattern.

A positive observation is that men farmers, even those who resist women’s political leadership, show

acceptance and support for women farmers in their district.

The second progress report on the National Development Consultations for Belize relates that there is a

declining level of appreciation of young people for the natural environment and lack of respect for

agriculture as a desirable career. Attempts to re-introduce gardening and agriculture into the primary and

secondary school curriculum are ad hoc and poorly funded.

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4.3.5. Climate change related issues and agricultural vulnerability in Belize

Martin and Manzano, (2010) contend that the vulnerability of the agricultural sectors in Belize is not only

due to its geo-physical location and hydro-meteorological hazards but it is also due to the shortcomings of

the current disaster risk reduction and response mechanisms to effectively mitigate the impacts. In

addition, to its already existing high exposure to natural hazards, the country is one of the SIDS classified as

most vulnerable to climate change. The impacts of global climate change are likely to be felt through

greater climate variability (changes in dry and rainy seasons), even more extreme events (hurricanes,

floods, droughts) and damage to water resources, agricultural systems, ecosystems, human settlements

and coastal resources.

A vulnerability assessment for agriculture and food security in Belize conducted by Green (2007) used crop

simulation models to simulate physiological responses to climatic parameters, soil and crop management.

Three staple crops were selected; rice, maize and beans. Future climate scenarios were characterized by

temperature increases of 1°C and 2°C and a ± 20% change in precipitation. The models projected shorter

growing seasons for all three crops as well as decreases in yields of 10% to 20% across the various

scenarios. Projected reductions in yields were 14% – 19% for beans, 10% – 14% for rice and 17% – 22% for

maize. These three staple crops are important to Belize’s food security as well as for export income. A

reduction in yield for these three crops alone would represent BZ $13-18 million in lost revenue.

The following table shows a scenario of the impact of disasters and climate change on agricultural sectors.

Table 4.3.1: Climate Change Impact on Agriculture & Fisheries Sector – Belize

SECTORS DISASTER CLIMATE CHANGE

Agriculture

Sugarcane crop is exposed to flood damage in Orange Walk and Corozal.

Citrus and banana crops are especially vulnerable to wind and flood damage in Stann Creek.

Expected increases of 1-2°C and rainfall changes of 10% are predicted to lower productivity of beans, corn and rice by 10%.

Banana, citrus and emerging vegetable crops face same threats as above.

Fisheries

Exports of shrimp and other marine products are at risk to be affected by tropical storms and storm surges.

Habitats such as sea grass beds, mangroves and coral reefs are vulnerable to storms and siltation.

Traditional catches are expected to migrate as Belizean water warms up.

SLR and coral bleaching also threaten habitats for fish nurseries, such as mangroves and coral reefs.

(Source: Martin and Manzano, 2010)

During the last 75 years, 19 tropical storms have been recorded in Belize. One out of every three storms has

been hurricanes of Category 3 severity. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that direct damages jointly

caused by Hurricane Keith (2000/Cat3), Tropical Storm Chantal (2001/TS) and Hurricane Iris (2001/Cat4),

are estimated at around US $200 million to the agricultural sector alone. Hurricane Iris (2001) alone

reduced total production of cocoa from 65,000 lbs to 16,000 lbs in the Toledo region. Similarly, heavy

rainfall levels cause flash floods in low lands, particularly in the southern areas of Stann Creek, Cayo and

Toledo. Belizean agriculture is also vulnerable to flash floods due to the low sea levels in large areas of the

country (World Bank, 2009).

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4.3.6. Vulnerability enhancing factors: Agriculture, land use and soil

degradation in Belize

FAO (2011) statistics indicate that around 2 million acres, or 38% of the land area, are suitable for

agriculture and about 15% of this amount is under farming every year. A recent census of farms in Belize

shows that 24% of farms have less than 5 acres, 33% between 5 and 20 acres and 74% of farms in the

country are below 50 acres (MAF Farm Registry). Across districts, Toledo District has one fourth of all farms

in Belize and the highest level of concentration of small farms. Orange Walk is next with 22% of farms and

Corozal with 21%. It is estimated that 60,000 acres is in sugar cane, 46,000 in citrus, 38,000 in corn and

150,000 in pastures grazed by some 80,000 head of cattle.

Belize’s First National Report on the Implementation of the United Nations Convention to Combat

Desertification (Green, 2000) reveals that the main vulnerability enhancing factor for land and soil

degradation in Belize is that the proportion of the country under agricultural cultivation exceeds the true

potential. Much of the current agricultural development, including thousands of acres of citrus orchards,

are being cultivated on marginal (sandy) soils requiring increasing inputs of fertilizers and management

each year. Those soils are categorized as marginal or third class and have high risk of degradation. Since the

mainstay of the Belizean economy is agriculture, this situation poses a serious threat for the future of this

country.

Improper farming practices also significantly contribute to land and soil degradation. Banana crops, which

are planted near riverbeds, require frequent applications of pesticides in order that the fruit meet the

standards for export. The consistent applications of these chemicals accumulate in the soils and eventually

result in degradation and deterioration in the quality of water available for downstream users due to

runoff. Small scale farming operations also have a tendency to result inland degradation. The traditional

Milpa farming system utilises the same parcels of land for several rotations. With increasing populations

and higher demands for food, there is increasing pressure on the land which compromises the natural

nutrient cycling process. Both slash-and-burn and mechanized agriculture cause land degradation through

nutrient loss.

Meerman and Cherrington (2005) specifically identify several local farming practices that threaten the

country’s agricultural capacity and national food security including: deforestation and other land cover

conversions, farming on marginal land including on acidic soils, farming on steep slopes, slash and burn

agriculture, use of agricultural land for residential settlements, livestock over-grazing, logging and surface

mining.

4.3.7. Social vulnerability of agricultural communities in Belize

Agricultural communities in Belize are extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts and food insecurity.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (2009) states that the risk of food insecurity in Belize arises from

two situations; firstly, chronic situations that undermine income earning capacity and purchasing power

resulting in limited access to the food that is needed. This is a poverty and income earning opportunity

problem and is evidenced by the more than 35% of the Belizean population that is estimated to be at risk of

food insecurity. Secondly, there are transitory situations that exacerbate the vulnerability of the

population, such as natural disasters that sharply increase the risks of food insecurity.

FAO (2009), reports that the incidence of poverty in Belize is predominantly rural and small subsistence

farmers exhibit the highest poverty rates. About 25,000 people are employed in primary agriculture in

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Belize, with about one-half of these employed in the traditional export oriented sectors. Thousands more

are employed in agricultural processing operations. Given the weight that sugar and banana production

have played in agricultural GDP and employment, the impact of trade preference erosions could pose

sector-wide risks. The adjustment processes may involve some contraction in overall employment.

A third social vulnerability factor for agricultural communities in Belize relates to risks posed by porous

borders. Belize‘s borders with Mexico and Guatemala are rather porous, with considerable movements of

people, animals, plants and products taking place both at formal and informal crossing points. Such

movements constitute important economic activity but also expose Belizean farmers to new or formerly

controlled pests and diseases (World Bank, 2009).

4.3.8. Economic Vulnerability: Climate change & agricultural outputs in Belize

The main economic vulnerability factor for the agriculture and fisheries in Belize is the potential losses from

natural disasters. The high level of vulnerability of the agriculture and fisheries sectors was evident in the

devastation caused by the impacts of Hurricane Dean, Tropical Storm Arthur, Tropical depression 16 and

Hurricane Richard between 2007 and 2010. The massive impacts of three recent natural disasters on

agriculture are shown in the following table.

Table 4.3.2: Recent natural disasters and their impact on agriculture sector in Belize

Sl. Name of the Event Date & Year Agricultural Sector Damage Cost (BZD)

1 Hurricane Dean August 21, 2007 The total losses to this sector is approximately 131.1 million ($40.40 million in direct damage and $90.70 million in indirect losses)

2 Tropical Storm Arthur May 31, 2008 $25 million. This includes direct loss to the farmer (damage assessment), which is estimated at around $11.7 million and other losses.

3 Tropical Depression (TD)-16

October 30, 2008 $7.8 million (papaya and rice -30% of total major crops)

4 Hurricane Richard October 21, 2010 Direct damages to the agricultural sector is $34.68 million

(Source: DANA reports, NEMO)

The Corozal and Orange Walk Districts, the hub of the sugarcane and papaya industries, were significantly

affected. There was also significant damage to corn, vegetables, tree-crops and subsistence crops, with

some damage to livestock. The high loss to the agriculture sector is attributed to the strong winds which

accompanied hurricane Dean (Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment, 2007). The damages are

summarized as follows:

Table 4.3.3: Summary of damage and losses to agricultural sector by district following Hurricane Dean

District Direct Damage (BZD) Economic Loss (BZD)

Corozal District 32,146,121.00 71,171,170.00

Orange Walk District 7,915,000.00 18,818,265.00

Belize District 331,593.75 710,115.13

Sub-total 40,392,714.00 90,699,550.13

Total 131,092,264.00

(Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment, 2007)

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Export crops

•Sugar

•Bananas

•Citrus

•Fish

•Papaya

•Beans & peas

Staple crops: domestic use

•Tubers: cocoyam, cassava,sweet potato, yams, irish potato, carrots

•Spices: hot pepper, onion, ginger, annatto

•Vegetables: Cabbage, Tomato, Sweet Pepper, Lettuce, Celery, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Squash, Pumpkin

•Cereals and grain legumes – Corn, Sorghum, Rice, Beans, Cowpea, Soybean, Peanuts

Non-traditional & dairy

•Industrial: cotton, cocoa

•Livestock: Poultry, Beef, Dairy, Pork, Beekeeping, Small Stock/Ruminants

A second economic vulnerability factor for the agriculture sector in Belize is the risk to competitiveness

posed by high cost services. Belizean primary producers and agro-processors face relatively high costs of

electricity, telecommunications and port services compared with their competitors in Central America, the

Caribbean and elsewhere. Statutory minimum wage rates in Belize are 30% to 50% higher than those in

other Central American countries. With the loss of certain external trade preferences (e.g. for bananas and

sugar) and with intensified competition in other markets, the higher cost structures in several Belizean

agricultural sectors threatens near term viability for existing players and likely inhibits new investment

(World Bank, 2009). The following diagram shows the most important crops for Belize based on data

acquired from this study and information from the Ministry of Agriculture Report (Merrill, 2010).

Figure 4.3.1: Belize Key Crops

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4.4. Human Health

4.4.1. Background

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) defines health as

“physical, social and psychological wellbeing” (Confalonieri et al., 2007). An understanding of the impacts of

climate change on human health is important because of the impact on the economy which ultimately

impacts people at the local, regional, national and international levels. Where diseases are endemic or

where environmental and social conditions make particular populations vulnerable, climate change has the

potential to impact on the quality of the environment and the resilience of the ecosystems thereby

increasing the disease incidence of the area.

Health is an important issue for the tourism industry because tourists are at risk of contracting infectious

diseases transmitted by insect vectors. In addition, air travel is responsible for a large number of diseases

which are carried from tourist destinations to Europe (Gössling, 2005) and elsewhere in the world. This is

highly relevant when one considers that as much as 75% of travellers become ill abroad; morbidity is most

often due to diarrhoea or respiratory infections (Sanford, 2004). Serious disease outbreaks can affect

tourism destination demand and negatively impact the economies of SIDS.

The potential effects of climate change on public health can be direct or indirect (Confalonieri et al., 2007;

Ebi et al., 2006; Patz et al., 2000). Direct effects include those associated with extreme weather events such

as heat stress, changes in precipitation, SLR and natural disasters or more frequent extreme weather

events. Both direct and indirect effects include the impact of climate change on the natural environment

which can affect food security, the agriculture sector and increase the susceptibility of populations to

respiratory diseases and food- and water-borne diseases (Confalonieri et al., 2007; Ebi et al., 2006; Patz et

al., 2000).

An increase in the incidence of infectious diseases has been observed in recent years in Belize (Government

of Belize, 2011). In the Belize Second National Communication to the UNFCCC, the first modelling study on

dengue fever and the effects of its transmission due to socio-economic, climatic and environmental factors

was undertaken based on research by (Vanzie, 2008). This study collected data on the frequency and spatial

distribution of Aedes aegypti larvae and determined the Breteau, House and Container indices throughout

the country. The results of the study were as follows “17% of surveyed communities had a Breteau index

below 2%. This is the threshold (even though disputed) below which dengue transmission is unlikely. 39%

had Breteau indexes between 2% and 5%; this level of larvae infestation supports the maintenance of

endemic dengue and low level outbreaks. Eight communities (44%) had larvae infestation as determined by

the Breteau index, between 6% and 24%; the probability of dengue outbreak is very high in these

communities” (Government of Belize, 2011). Based on the methodology used it is uncertain whether this

data is valid and can be interpreted in the manner reported.

While other infectious diseases represent a public health concern in Belize (Government of Belize, 2011)

no other diseases were explored in the study due to a lack of data. The vulnerability section of this report

highlights some of the potential health impacts that may arise due to climate change. Table 4.4.1 shows

selected statistics relevant to the health sector of Belize.

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Table 4.4.1: Selected statistics relevant to the Health Sector of Belize

Population 322,100 (2008)1

Unemployment rate 8.3% (2008)1

Poverty/indigence rate 25.5/15.8% (2009)2

Expenditure on Public Health 5.1% of GDP (2009)3

Life Expectancy at Birth 74.9 yrs (2008)1

Crude birth rate (per 1,000) 21.9 (2008)1

Death rate (per 1,000) 4.0 (2008)1

Beds occupancy (1,000) 1.2 (2005)4

(Source: Government of Belize, 2010b1; Government of Belize, 2010a

2; WHO, 2011a

3; PAHO, 2008

4)

4.4.2. Direct Impacts

Mortality and morbidity rates due to injuries sustained during natural disasters are important

considerations when assessing the vulnerability of a country to climate change. Belize in particular is

vulnerable to hurricanes and floods which hit the country with great frequency (PAHO, 2008). It is

estimated that 75% of the population is vulnerable to natural disasters (PAHO, 2008). However, this report

focuses mainly on indirect impacts of climate change on the health sector of Belize which are described

below.

4.4.3. Indirect Impacts

Increase in vector borne diseases

The tropical, mainland and coastal country of Belize, contains many suitable areas for mosquito breeding.

Mosquito borne diseases are important to the health sector in Belize, particularly malaria and dengue fever

(Government of Belize, 2011). The impacts on the health sector translate into both social and economic

burden to the country. Aside from the impact of such diseases to the population of Belize, the tourism

sector may also be affected. In 2009, there were 232,373 tourist arrivals by air and another 705,219 cruise

ship passengers from 284 ship calls to the country (CTO, 2010). This influx of people from non-endemic

areas represents a susceptible population to vector-borne disease infections once conditions in the country

are favourable for their disease transmission.

Malaria - Malaria is a vector-borne disease which is believed to be sensitive to climate change (Githeko et

al., 2003; Martens et al., 2007). The main species of malaria parasite found in Belize is the Plasmodium

vivax parasite but P. falciparum poses a significant threat (PAHO, 2008). In the 1990’s, Belize had the

highest malaria rate in the Latin American region and the estimated cost to control the disease and to

account for lost productivity was US $800,000 (Government of Belize, 2002). According to CAREC data,

Belize had the third highest incidence of the disease in CAREC Member countries after Guyana and

Suriname, with 11% of cases between 1995 and 2005 (CAREC, 2008c). The malaria rate in 2008 was less

than 1 per 1,000 persons in the northern districts of Corozal, Orange Walk and Belize but 1.4, 4.3 and 8.5

per 1,000 persons in the central and southern districts of Cayo, Stann Creek and Toledo (Government of

Belize, 2010b). Presently, 53% of the country is at high risk of contracting the disease, with another 11% at

low risk (WHO, 2010a).

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Malaria is endemic to the country. The status of the disease has been summarised by PAHO (2008) as

follows: “Malaria will continue to represent an important public health concern in Belize, especially in rural

areas of the southern districts, given that there is an active migrant population that works in the citrus and

banana industries and frequent population movements and substandard housing have provided favourable

environmental conditions for mosquito breeding”.

In a study of malaria vectors in the Caribbean, 9 of the 29 species of Anopheles present in the region were

identified in Belize (Rawlins et al., 2008). From 1995 to 2009 over 85,996 cases of malaria were reported,

with fluctuating trends in the prevalence in malaria cases observed, with as low as 10, 415 reported in 1995

to over 26,000 cases in 2009 (CAREC, 2008c; WHO, 2010a). Table 4.4.2 below shows malaria cases for Belize

between 2000 and 2009. The average number of cases per year for this period was 828, whereas for the

last thirty years spanning 1980 - 2009 it was 2,660 cases per year. There was only one death in the last ten

years which occurred in 2006 (WHO, 2010a).

Table 4.4.2: Confirmed malaria confirmed and suspected cases in Belize between 2000 and 2009

Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

No. (confirmed) cases

1,486 1,097 928 928 1,066 1,549 844 845 538 256

No. suspected (tested + probable) cases

18,559 18,173 15,480 15,480 17,358 25,119 25,755 22,134 25,550 26,051

(Source: WHO, 2010a)

At least one study has found that malaria is the most common cause of fever among tourists upon

returning from travel in infected areas (Wichmann et al., 2003). Additionally, it should be highlighted here

that malaria is the most reported cause of hospitalizations in tourists from malaria prone destinations

(Wilder-Smith and Schwartz, 2005). These results highlight the need for effective management of the

disease for future increases are anticipated due to climate change and its “knock on” effect on the tourist

industry of Belize.

Dengue Fever – Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease and exists in tropical and subtropical

countries worldwide (Gubler, 2002; Patz et al., 2000; Rigau-Pérez et al., 1998). Population growth,

urbanization and modern transportation are believed to have contributed to its resurgence in recent times

(Gubler, 2002). It has been shown that dengue fever transmission is altered by increases in temperature

and rainfall (Hales et al., 1996) but further research on the association between these two variables is

needed. It has been found from modelled data and observations that changes in climate determine the

geographical boundaries of dengue fever (Epstein, 2001; Epstein et al., 1998; Hales, Wet, Maindonald, &

Woodward, 2002; Hsieh & Chen, 2009; Martens et al., 2007; Patz et al., 2000). The economic, social and

environmental factors can also affect the occurrence and transmission of the disease (Hopp and Foley,

2001).

Dengue fever is endemic to Belize and is transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito to humans

(Government of Belize, 2011). The Belize Second National Communication to the UNFCCC has stated that

Belize has suitable environmental and socio‐economic conditions for dengue fever and dengue

haemorrhagic fever outbreaks (Government of Belize, 2011). Dengue fever cases prior to 2006 have been

inconsistently reported and therefore under-reported. For instance between 1995 and 2007, only four

years (1995, 2002, 2005 and 2007) have complete data sets by district (Government of Belize, 2011). In

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2007, the incidence of dengue fever was 1.06 persons per 1,000 inhabitants and for all other years with

complete data it was estimated to be 1.057 persons per 1,000 inhabitants (Government of Belize, 2011).

Figure 4.4.1: Seasonal variation of Dengue in Belize – 2002, 2005, 2007 (Source: Government of Belize, 2011)

Dengue exhibits seasonal variability and its incidence has also shown some correlation with rainfall patterns

(Government of Belize, 2011). This is demonstrated in Figure 4.4.1 above. During 2009 a similar pattern

emerged with increasing numbers of cases reported during epidemiological weeks 27-32 and from weeks

35-49 (CAREC, 2010). Reported cases are lowest during the dry season, with a sudden increase and

decrease from June to October. It has also been observed that the increase in cases occurs two weeks

behind increase in rainfall and that overall dengue cases mirror rainfall patterns (See Figure 4.4.2)

(Government of Belize, 2011). These results are very similar to that reported in Trinidad during 2001 - 2004

by (Chadee et al., 2006).

Figure 4.4.2: Seasonal variation of Dengue cases and rainfall in Belize (Source: Government of Belize, 2011)

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The data suggest that less attention is paid to dengue than malaria (Government of Belize, 2011) and this

may be partly due to the much higher incidence of the latter. However, the potential threat of the disease

is evident from 2009 dengue data (See Table 4.4.3), where there were 1370 cases and the biggest outbreak

for the last thirty years. This represented 38% of cases from all CAREC Member countries for that year

(CAREC, 2010). Cayo, Belize and Corozal Districts are most vulnerable to outbreaks (CAREC, 2010; PAHO,

2008). Dengue haemorrhagic fever is also becoming a concern as it was first reported in Belize in 2005

(PAHO, 2008). While there were no reported cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever in 2006 and 2007 (CAREC,

2008a), there were 26 and 87 cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever in 2008 and 2009 respectively (CAREC,

2010).

Table 4.4.3: Dengue fever cases between 1995 and 2009 in Belize

Year ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09

Dengue 107 0 274 6 3 6 2 41 0 2 652 10 40 32 1370

(Source: CAREC, 2008a; CAREC, 2008b; CAREC, 2010; PAHO, 2008)

Allwinn et al., (2008) have found that the risk of dengue to travellers has been underestimated. In fact it is

the second most reported disease of tourists returning from tropical destinations (Wilder-Smith and

Schwartz, 2005) and air travel has been linked with its spread (Jelinek, 2000). It is therefore quite relevant

to a country such as Belize with such a high volume of visitors.

Drought, air quality and respiratory illnesses

Changes in precipitation can also affect the health sector. For instance, Belize has experienced a number of

severe droughts in recent times that have affected various parts of the country as well as the economy

(BEST, 2009). Dry spells and drought conditions can increase particulate matter being blown in the air,

compromising air quality and thus health. Risk factors or variables that affect the incidence of respiratory

diseases include temperature, relative humidity and Sahara Dust (Amarakoon et al., 2004). Such conditions

can exacerbate or trigger attacks among persons with or predisposed to respiratory illnesses and can create

new respiratory problems among susceptible persons. Examples of diseases that may be worsened by poor

air quality are influenza and acute respiratory infections. Acute respiratory infections are particularly

important in Belize because they constitute one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality in the

country (PAHO, 2008). For example, in 2008, acute respiratory infections were ranked third out of the ten

leading causes of hospitalizations in Belize and ninth on the list of the ten leading causes of death with 47

deaths due to respiratory infections (Government of Belize, 2010b).

Table 4.4.4 shows data for fever and respiratory symptoms between 2006 and 2009. The year 2009 had

76% more cases than that observed in 2006. In 2009, a significant number of cases occurred, due to

drought conditions so it is reasonable to expect that similar effects may be suffered by travellers (Sanford,

2004) particularly those with respiratory diseases and those with pulmonary and cardiac diseases.

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Table 4.4.4: Fever and respiratory symptoms (acute respiratory infections) under and over 5 years and influenza-like illnesses between 2006 - 2009 in Belize

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009

Fever and Respiratory symptoms (ARI) < 5 yrs 8,005 2,834 5,408 13,879

Fever and Respiratory symptoms (ARI) ≥ 5 yrs - 656 2,716 19,770

Total no. of Fever and Respiratory cases 8,005 3,490 8,124 33,649

Influenza-like illnesses 1,965 2,083 2,525 4,040

(CAREC, 2008a; CAREC, 2010)

Another important disease associated with air quality is influenza-like illnesses and its incidence may be

affected by climate change (Confalonieri et al., 2007). In Belize, reported cases have been increasing every

year between 2006 and 2009 (CAREC, 2008a; CAREC, 2010) (See Table 4.4.4).

Water supply, sanitation and associated diseases

In 2010, 99% of the population received an improved water supply and 90% of the population had

improved sanitation services (WHO, 2011b). Only 3% of the population use water from wells, standpipes or

rivers (Government of Belize, 2011). Despite the overall positive statistics related to water supply,

(Government of Belize, 2011) has found that a lack of water and the cost of distributing good quality water

may be a problem which can compromise recent sanitation efforts. Additionally, a reliable water supply

due to infrastructure problems can at times be an issue, as most of the rural areas do not have piped water

supply and have to rely on drilled wells for freshwater, which can be low in times of drought or low

precipitation (BEST, 2009). Sanitation is also in need of attention, as 33% of the population do not have

flush toilets (Government of Belize, 2011). The Belize First National Communication to the UNFCCC stated

that diseases associated with a lack of water and improper sanitation increased in Belize. Specific diseases

were not identified in the report (Government of Belize, 2002), however, CAREC data indicate that

gastroenteritis is the most serious threat in Belize. Also noteworthy is the fact that infectious intestinal

diseases ranked among the ten leading causes of hospitalization in Belize in 2008 (Government of Belize,

2010b) which would include diseases such as shigellosis, diarrhoea and typhoid fever.

Table 4.4.5: Reported cases of gastroenteritis in Belize between 1999 and 2009

Year ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09

Gastroenteritis <5 yrs 545 390 303 123 214 1,681 1,797 3,336 796 1,973 1,508

Gastroenteritis ≥5 yrs 424 515 400 177 221 1,415 1,940 2,767 1,070 2,433 3,013

Total no. cases 969 905 703 300 435 3,096 3737 6,103 1,866 4,406 4,521

(Source: CAREC, 2008a, CAREC, 2010)

Table 4.4.5 shows cases of gastroenteritis in Belize between 1999 and 2009. Aside for 2007, there has been

an overall increasing trend in the incidence of the disease in the country. Diarrhoea is a concern as

outbreaks occur from time to time (Government of Belize, 2011). Diarrheal diseases were also among the

leading causes of death in under-five population between 2001 and 2005 in Belize (PAHO, 2008). Areas that

have been particularly affected in the past include Toledo and Cayo (Government of Belize, 2002).

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Flooding also has consequences for health as sanitation conditions deteriorate due to a lack of clean water

and this provides conditions suitable for the spread of diseases. Belize experiences recurrent flooding

particularly during the wet season or from the passing of tropical storms (BEST, 2009). Typhoid is

particularly relevant here. Emphasis on water and sanitation is critical to public health, which may become

even more important because of changes in climate and the associated vulnerabilities that may intensify. In

Belize, improved sanitation has reduced the threat of cholera; the last reported case of the disease was in

1999 (Government of Belize, 2010b). Climate change has been found to be an important factor in the

spatial and temporal distribution of cholera (Confalonieri et al., 2007) and may result in disease outbreaks

during extreme events and above normal precipitation.

Food security and Malnutrition

Confalonieri et al., (2007) and Moreno (2006) reported that drought and heat stress could also impact the

growth of crops in the field, e.g. heat stress of vegetables. Belize’s food security is highly dependent on the

agriculture sector (Government of Belize, 2011). Food security concerns warrant urgent attention for

climate change can negatively impact the entire sector and render large segments of the population

vulnerable to food security issues and ultimately malnutrition. Some of the health consequences associated

with reduced food availability include; under-nutrition, protein energy malnutrition and or micronutrient

deficiencies (Confalonieri et al., 2007). The poorest sectors of the society are usually most at risk. This is

indeed the case in Belize where the Toledo District has had problems with nutritional health in the past

(PAHO, 2008). The district level poverty rate was 79% which was the highest poverty rate of all 6 districts

and 45.5% higher than the national average (Government of Belize, 2010b). Rural areas have other threats

that complicate the problem. For instance there have been cases of acute pesticide intoxication in the past

and exposure to mercury via consuming contaminated fish has the potential to threaten food security in

rural communities (PAHO, 2008). Resistance to pesticides is likely to increase and this can have an effect on

the agriculture sector and therefore the availability of certain crops (Government of Belize, 2011). In the

tourism sector, most food products are already imported (Government of Belize, 2011) so if prices increase

in external markets, this would place a greater pressure on the tourism sector to sustain itself.

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4.5. Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries

4.5.1. Background

The Central American country of Belize is bordered to the north by Mexico and to the south and west by

Guatemala and has a total land area of 22,960 km2 split between the mainland (95%) and over 1,060 islands

(MONRECI, 2002). The original capital, Belize City has been repeatedly devastated by hurricanes due to its

exposure on the low-lying, northern coast (GFDRR, 2010). The country is primarily flat and low-lying with

large sections of coastline less than 1 m above sea level and for several kilometres inland. These areas are

largely calcareous. The highest point is found in the central Maya Mountain/Mountain Pine Ridge at 1,124

m (MONRECI, 2002). Most rivers flow from west to east through low-lying, often swampy, coastal plains


The vegetation found is moist, wet subtropical forest with savannahs and pine on some granite areas.

Despite increasing land pressures from agriculture most of the country remains under natural vegetation

cover and there is an extensive system of protected areas that accounts for 33.4% of the country. Much of

the mainland of Belize forms part of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, which comprises a network of

protected areas linked by biological corridors, stretching from Mexico to Panamá. Belize has two large,

unified, blocks of intact virgin rainforest that are likely to be the last strongholds for species that require

large, undisturbed areas for their long-term survival, such as the jaguar.

The Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System, stretching the full length of the country's coastline, is the largest

unbroken coral reef complex in the Western hemisphere (MONRECI, 2002). In Belize, the reef's rich

diversity of corals and other marine life has qualified it to be designated a World Heritage Site, in

recognition of its consequent global importance. The Belize Barrier Reef includes offshore Cayes (islands),

of which only a few are inhabited and numerous lagoons. It is the reef and cay system that lies at the centre

of the country’s tourist industry offering diving and water sports (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010).

The country’s biodiversity and varied ecosystems form the foundation of its tourism industry which has

developed around small-scale, adventure or nature-based recreation activities with the second-largest

barrier reef system in the world, numerous limestone caves and tropical rainforests providing the

attractions. It is home to more than 150 species of mammals, 540 of birds, 150 of amphibians and reptiles,

nearly 600 species of freshwater and marine fish and 3,408 species of vascular plants. Despite the large

variety of species, the number of species endemic to Belize is low, since Belize is a small country and does

not have many habitats that are unique. Most of the few endemics are found in the Maya Mountains and in

the lowland savannas of Belize. The country contains a vast array of ecosystems, many of which are critical

habitats for threatened and endangered species.

Rainfall in Belize varies with location from at least 1,100 mm a year in the north to at least 3,800 mm in the

south; the largest value given for rainfall in the south is 5,500 mm(NMS, n.d.; MONRECI, 2002; Forest

Department, 2000). The rainy season begins in the south in May and reaches the north of the country in

June, continuing through to November (MONRECI, 2002). The driest part of the year is February to April,

when humidity also drops slightly from the typical 80% (MONRECI, 2002).

Forest

Belize is a highly forested country and is often cited as having the highest percentage of forest cover in

Central America with 62.7% of land area forested. The total area of forest is now estimated to be

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3,374,612 acres or 13,657 km2, of which primary forest represents 2,838,267 acres or 11,486 km2. Several

studies carried out over the past 50 years, however, suggest that the country's forest cover has been in

decline. In 1959, a map was published estimating Belize's natural vegetation prior to colonial settlement of

the territory, which showed forest cover at almost 89%. Studies conducted between 1989 and 1994,

revealed that forests covered between 65 and 67% of the country's total area; although one earlier study

put the figure at over 74%. In 2004, it was estimated to be around 62%, meaning that in the ten-year period

between 1994 and 2004, the country lost a total of 561,473 hectares of forest cover.

More recently, a remote sensing study conducted by the Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin

America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC) and NASA, in collaboration with the Forest Department and the

Land Information Centre (LIC) of the Government of Belize's Ministry of Natural Resources and the

Environment (MNRE) and published in August 2010 revealed that Belize's forest cover in early 2010 was

approximately 62.7%, down from 75.9% in late 1980 (Cherrington et al., 2010a). A similar study by Belize

Tropical Forest Studies and Conservation International revealed similar trends in terms of Belize's forest

cover. Both studies indicate that each year, 0.6% of Belize's forest cover is lost, equivalent to the clearing of

an average of 24,835 acres (10,050 ha) each year.

The loss of forest cover has been due to clearing of land for agricultural and urban development, as well as

forest fires and more recently infestations of pine beetles (see Section 4.5.2). However, in the context of

the wider region, Belize's deforestation rates are relatively low, due to a lower population density, a more

urbanised population and a history of protecting its forests. The studies mentioned above also showed that

Belize's protected areas have been extremely effective in protecting the country's forests. While only some

6.4% of forests inside of legally

declared protected areas were

cleared between 1980 and

2010, over a quarter of forests

outside of protected areas had

been lost between 1980 and

2010. As a country with a

relatively high forest cover and

a low deforestation rate, Belize

has significant potential for

participation in initiatives such

as REDD, which could provide

much needed financial support

for forest conservation.

Figure 4.5.1: The Jaguar – Belize’s top forest predator

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Figure 4.5.2: Protected Areas of Belize

Mangroves

Spanning the intersection of land and sea, mangroves provide essential habitat for a wide diversity of

terrestrial and marine species. Mangrove stands buffer the impacts of storm surge and high-energy waves;

their root networks trap fine sediments and suspended particles thus contributing to the maintenance and

stabilization of shorelines. This function also serves to filter tidal waters reducing their turbidity and

improving water quality. Mangrove habitats provide breeding grounds for a host of economically important

marine organisms such as conch, lobster and fish. The forest canopy provides extensive habitat and

breeding areas for avian and reptilian species. Their high biological productivity provides a source for

available nutrients and forms a critical link between terrestrial and marine ecosystems, most notably coral

reefs and seagrass beds.

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Mangroves provide an estimated US $174 – $249 million to the economy of Belize (Cooper, Burke, & Bood,

2009). The majority of Belize’s population and valuable real estate lies along coastal areas that are

sheltered by mangroves. Despite their importance to the country, Belize’s mangroves are facing a number

of threats, including pollution, deforestation, sedimentation and weak legislation. More recently, coastal

development has led to significant losses in mangrove cover, particularly near Placencia (Bood, 2008) and

Belize City on the mainland, as well as Ambergris Caye and other offshore cayes. Marine dredging in

sensitive areas such as the Pelican Cayes has led to smothering of reefs and damage to nursery habitats in

surrounding mangroves and seagrass beds (Melanie McField, Personal comm.).

A 2010 satellite-based study of Belize's mangroves by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and CATHALAC found

that in 2010, mangroves covered some 184,548 acres (74,684 hectares) or 3.4% of Belize's territory

(Cherrington et al., 2010b). In 1980, by contrast, mangrove cover stood at 188,417 acres (76,250 hectares),

also 3.4% of Belize's territory. Based on the work of Simon Zisman (1998) it is estimated Belize's mangrove

cover in 1980 represented 98.7% of the pre-colonial extent of those ecosystems, therefore Belize's

mangrove cover in 2010 was thus estimated to represent 96.7% of the pre-colonial cover. These figures

equate to a net loss of approximately 3,900 acres of mangrove cover over roughly 30 years, a loss of 2% of

the 1980 mangrove cover. The average annual net loss was estimated at 0.07%, or 125 acres.

In terms of the resilience of mangrove ecosystems, a mere 236 acres (96 hectares) of the area cleared

between 1980 and 2010 was detected to have grown back. It is also assumed that widespread mangrove

regrowth was likely not seen because land previously occupied by mangroves is permanently converted to

other land uses such as infrastructure for housing. Whereas recent publications such as the 2010 World

Mangrove Atlas indicate that a fifth of the world’s mangrove cover had been lost since 1980, the loss of 2%

of Belize’s overall mangrove cover between 1980 and 2010 can be considered low.

While the net loss is low, it is worth noting that the detailed assessment of 2010 (Cherrington et al., 2010b)

also revealed that 90.9% of mangroves cleared from 1980 - 2010 were very ecologically important

mangroves with ‘marine connectivity.’ It was also estimated that almost 90% of all mangrove clearing

occurred in four main areas: (i) the Belize City area and surrounding cayes, (ii) the Placencia peninsula and

surrounding cayes, (iii) Ambergris Caye and nearby islands and (iv) the Dangriga area and nearby cayes. At

the scale of 1:100,000, this assessment also reveals that land clearing resulted in fragmentation of some

2.1% of mangrove communities.

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Figure 4.5.3: Coastal and marine habitats of Belize

Beaches

Belize’s beaches are an important tourism attraction and are frequented by thousands of visitors and

residents annually. Beaches protect coastal infrastructure from erosive wave action and also provide

landing sites for fishing boats and seine nets. Beaches also provide habitat for many species of plants and

animals, including shore birds, crustaceans and at least three species of marine turtles that return annually

to Belize to mate and lay their eggs. Vegetation growing on beaches and sand dunes help to stabilize the

shore and encourage the build-up of sand into dunes, which form an important reservoir of sand and

natural wind-break.

In many parts of Belize, beach loss and beach erosion have been accelerating and this is often attributed to

storm damage and changes to the near shore environment. In recent times, several hurricanes have struck

the coast of Belize and caused extensive damage to key tourism destinations, such as Placencia and

Ambergris Caye.

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Figure 4.5.4: Photo of the beach at Placencia (Belize) in 2008 where active erosion is reported (Source: CARIBSAVE, 2010)

Coral reefs

Extending from the northern end of the Ambergris Caye to the Sapodilla Cays in the south, Belize coral

reefs are extremely important to the economy, communities and physical integrity of the country. Coral

reefs support livelihoods directly and indirectly in fisheries and marine tourism. They are a significant

source of sand and provide stability for beaches. Reefs serve as habitat and feeding and nursery grounds

for juvenile fish such as snappers and groupers as well as commercially important molluscs (e.g. conch) and

crustaceans (e.g. lobster). Coral reefs also have value in terms of their historic, cultural, medicinal and

ecological significance. An even more valuable service provided by coral reefs is their role as a natural

coastal defence, protecting the shoreline and coastal infrastructure from the erosive action of waves and

storm surges. According to a recent economic valuation (Cooper, Burke and Bood, 2009) the value of coral

reef- and mangrove-related fisheries, tourism and shoreline protection services in Belize is estimated to be

US $395 – $559 million per year (As a reference point, Belize’s GDP totalled US $1.3 billion in 2007).

Emergent reefs, such as the Belize Barrier Reef, can mitigate over 3⁄4 of wave energy. Belize’s coral reefs

provide an estimated US $120 – $180 million in avoided damages per year.

Belize has a variety of reef types (barrier reef, lagoon patch reefs, fringing reefs and three offshore atolls)

including the 280 km, 1400 km2 Belize Barrier Reef (McField & Bood, 2007) the second longest barrier reef

in the world, which was declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Belize’s coral reefs are ecologically linked

to other marine and coastal habitats including mangrove forests and seagrass beds.

A 2006 survey of 140 reefs throughout Belize found that live coral cover has declined from a level of 25 –

30% in the mid-1990’s to an average of 11% (McField and Bood, 2007). The cause of this decline is due to

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over-fishing, pollution, sedimentation, increased population in coastal areas, weak legislation and the mass

coral bleaching events of 1995 and 1998.

Figure 4.5.5: Map of sediment delivery to Meso-American Barrier Reef (Source: http://archive.wri.org/pubs/pubs_description.cfm?pid=4256)

Seagrasses

Extensive seagrass beds are found along the entire length of Belize see Figure 4.5.3. The main species are

turtle grass (Thalassia testudinum) and manatee grass (Syringodium filiforme). These seagrass beds play an

important role as primary producers in the food chain of the reef community producing more than 4000 g

C/m2/yr. They also provide habitat, feeding, breeding, recruitment and nursery grounds for many marine

animals including the major commercial species. Seagrass beds also support large populations of manatees,

which are an important eco-tourism attraction in the tourism centres of San Pedro, Caye Caulker and

Placencia.

Seagrass beds also help in reducing sediment movement in near-shore waters and stabilize the coastline

during storms. These ecosystems are generally distributed along the coast in shallow water where sunlight

penetration is adequate to allow photosynthesis. Their location leaves them highly susceptible to run-off

from land based activities and to stressors arising from water sports activities.

Fisheries

The fisheries sector is primarily composed of small-scale artisanal fishers, who fish in the shallow waters off

the barrier reef and the three atolls (FAO, 2005). All of the major commercial species rely on reefs,

mangroves, or the sandy flats and seagrasses. Belize had over 2,000 licensed fishermen in 2006 and fishing

plays a significant role in both export and local markets, as well as a source of high quality protein for

http://archive.wri.org/pubs/pubs_description.cfm?pid=4256

84

coastal communities. Approximately 15% of the country’s licensed fishermen come from the northern

village of Sarteneja. In this village, fishing remains a family oriented activity, where boys begin working on

the family boat straight from school and later spend weeks at a time fishing sites up and down the Belize

coast (Kishore et al., 2006).

In recent years there have been increasing evidence of over-fishing in Belize and as yet unpublished studies

have shown a very marked decline in large reef fish (Prof. Peter Mumby, Pers. Communication). A 2007

study found a drop in catch per unit effort and landings per boat for the mutton snapper fishery at Gladden

Spit (Graham et al., 2007). Fishermen interviewed in a recent study (Cooper, Burke and Bood, 2009)

described a decline in catch and fish size over the past decade. Another study, of fish catch in Glover’s Reef

Marine Reserve during 2007, found that barracuda and parrotfish were the most frequently landed species

(WCS, 2008). The more desirable snapper and grouper species fell much further down on the list,

suggesting that populations of these key commercial species are declining in this area.

The reasons for the observed decline in fisheries landings are largely due to the increasing fishing effort,

which is now surpassing sustainable levels. The recent use of fish traps, which were brought to Belize by

fishermen from Jamaica, is also a major concern as this fishing technique is very unselective and damaging

to both fish stocks and benthic habitats. The use of gill nets, predominantly by Guatemalan fishermen, is

also a major concern for many fishermen and tour guides in Belize, who are concerned that the gillnet by-

catch of manatee, tarpon, permit and bonefish is threatening the sustainability of the valuable catch-and-

release fly fishing and ecotourism industries.

Catches of lobster and conch, after dropping from peaks in the early 1980s, have been relatively constraint

between 0.4 and 0.7 million pounds for both species in recent years (FAO, 2005; Belize Fisheries

Department, 2008). Some researchers argue that this may be primarily a result of increases in total effort

(Huitric, 2005). Belize has a five month closed season for lobster, lasting from February through June of

each year and a three month closed season for conch, beginning in July. Although the Fishermen’s

Cooperatives will not accept out of season or undersized catch, the common practice of selling directly to

restaurants and hotels (or over the border in Honduras and Guatemala) provides an easy market for illegal

catch (Heyman and Graham, 2000; Vernon, 2007). The fisheries department is also insufficiently funded to

enforce fishing regulations effectively across Belize’s entire marine area.

The recent arrival of the invasive lionfish (1st reported in Belize in 2008) is potentially a major threat to the

fisheries of Belize, as this rapidly expanding species is a voracious predator on small reef fish. To date very

few accounts of larger native fish predating on lionfish have been reported and local control measures are

unlikely to have a substantial impact on its population. Regional research on lionfish is increasing and

should be monitored closely for management recommendations. (see

http://www.gcfi.org/Lionfish/Lionfish.html for review of recent papers).

Aquaculture has had considerable variations in fortunes over the last decade with rapid growth in 2003

following the introduction of a resistant strain of farmed shrimp and an increase in the active pond acreage,

which resulted in a doubling of the farmed shrimp output(CBB, 2004). In 2007 the aquaculture industry

went bankrupt (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010), but is now showing signs of recovery since 2009 attributable

to increased production of farmed shrimp and conch(ECLAC, 2010b).

Marine Turtles

Three varieties of sea turtles (green, hawksbill and loggerhead) nest in Belize and are regularly located

between the coast and the barrier reef. Two out of three of the species found in Belize are considered

"Endangered" by the International World Conservation Union. Belize has laws to protect sea turtles, so that

http://www.gcfi.org/Lionfish/Lionfish.html

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harvesting of turtles or their eggs is illegal. The main threats are incidental capture and drowning of turtles

in gill nets and long lines. Shrimp trawlers also cause many turtle deaths as the Turtle Excluding Devices -

required for export of shrimp to the US - are often incorrectly installed. In 2007, shrimp trawlers in Belize

landed only 19 metric tons of shrimp (FAO) and discarded about 76 to 190 metric tons of other marine life,

including endangered turtles. The construction of sea walls, piers, tourist developments and coastal

properties, coupled with the use of dredging, anchoring and waste disposal, cause major destruction to sea

turtle habitat.

The Belize Turtle Watch Program was launched in March 2011 by ECOMAR, in partnership with the Belize

Fisheries Department, with support from WWF and PACT. The aim is to increase the level of knowledge on

sea turtles in Belize and to establish a baseline data set on abundance and nesting beach activity so that

changes over time, specifically those caused by climate change, can be measured. The Belize Turtle Watch

Program has many activities planned for 2011 that will involve the general public, coastal property owners,

recreational and professional divers and snorkelers, fishermen, marine protected area managers and other

NGOs.

The Sea Turtle Census 2011 consists of the In-Water and Nesting Beach Observation Programs where

marine guides and coastal property owners record their observations of sea turtles. The census relies on

interested business and individuals becoming supporters and volunteers in the project activities. Nesting

Beach Observations Kits will be prepared and distributed to Turtle Watch Volunteers that can monitor

beaches for nesting activity. Divers and snorkelers are encouraged to submit photos of any turtles they

have seen on the dives and especially those recorded in the logs that will be used in a photo ID program.

The photos will be used in a Belize Sea Turtle Photo Album to determine the range of resident turtles living

on the reefs.

4.5.2. Vulnerability of biodiversity and fisheries to climate change

Forest

While small changes in temperature and precipitation are known to have significant effects on forest

ecosystems, there has been little research focused on the projected impacts of climate change on

terrestrial biodiversity in the region. Climate change related variations in average daily temperature,

seasonal precipitation and extreme weather events will exacerbate the effects of existing human stressors

on forest ecosystems. Projected Annual changes in temperature by the 2080s indicate increase spanning

1.0 - 4.1˚C for the GCM ensemble Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections driven by ECHAM4 and

HadCM3 indicate more rapid increase in temperature over Belize than the median change projected by the

GCM ensemble under higher emissions scenario A2. RCM simulations driven by both ECHAM4 and HadCM3

boundary conditions indicate a decrease in mean annual rainfall for Belize by 22% and 29% respectively.

Annual observed trend for precipitation in Belize (1960 - 2006) is slightly negative, but not statistically

significant. On the other hand, GCM projections of future rainfall for Belize span both overall increases and

decreases, but tend towards decreases in most models. GCM projections of rainfall over Belize indicate

decreases in annual rainfall of -28 to +10 mm per month by 2080 under scenario A2. The projected changes

are higher during JJA and show wide variations in SON. The changes in seasonal precipitation simulated by

the RCM vary considerably depending on the driving GCM, but both RCMs indicate decreases in

precipitation under the A2 scenario. The RCM, driven by EHCAM4, indicates 32% decrease and, driven by

HadCM3, indicates 26% decrease in annual rainfall. The ECHAM4 driven RCM simulation indicates largest

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proportional decrease of 67% in JJA. The HadCM3-driven RCM run indicates large proportional decrease in

rainfall for all seasons by 2080s with large proportional changes for JJA (-37%) and SON (-30%)

These projected changes in the average annual temperature and precipitation patterns will have profound

effects on the growth of trees and other plant species within Belize. Decreases in precipitation and

increased average daily temperatures could result in a loss of rainforest and an associated increase in the

tropical dry forest zones. Reduced moisture would result in forests becoming much drier, potentially

causing the wilting and death of epiphytes, which provide important habitat for birds, insects and reptiles

(Foster, 2001). The implications are a loss of habitat for many species, a loss of revenue for the eco-tourism

sector and a loss of other important ecosystem products and services. Assuming a cooling rate of 1oC per

150 m of altitude, a projected increase of 1.7oC would require vegetative zones to migrate vertically by 260

m and up to 530 m in a 3.5oC scenario (Day, 2009). The result could be a displacement of forests into

progressively smaller regions at the tops of mountains – possibly causing the loss of entire cloud forests if

vertical migration is not possible. One area that may be affected is the 400 km2 Cockscomb Basin Wildlife

Sanctuary in south-central Belize established to protect the forests, fauna and watersheds of the eastern

slopes of the Maya Mountains, including Victoria Peak the second highest mountain in Belize.

The loss of forest cover due to reduced soil moisture and forest fires will increase soil erosion. This will have

negative impacts on ecosystems downstream of their watersheds, such as mangroves, seagrass beds and in

particular coral reefs, where sedimentation and siltation rates will smother the polyps and reduce sunlight

penetration and their ability to photosynthesize.

Caribbean forests have always suffered physical damage from storms and there is evidence that the

increasing intensity of hurricanes is causing more severe damage, with potentially longer-term

consequences for the integrity of the forest structure and canopy. Severe damage to trees and animal

habitats may take years to return to normal.

Pine forests in Belize are struggling to recover from a devastating plague of pine beetles of the

Dendroctonus family. These small pine beetles have destroyed up to 70,000 acres (80%) of the Mountain

Pine Ridge Forest near Belize’s border with Guatemala. According to unpublished reports, droughts caused

by global warming weakened the trees, leaving them susceptible to beetle attacks. Moreover, rising

temperatures have also increased the reproduction rates of these beetles insects. Healthy pines can

tolerate the beetle attacks by secreting a substance that plugs the boreholes and drowns the beetles, but

unusually severe droughts for several years had weakened the trees in Belize. The blight attack was first

observed in 1999 and surged in 2003. Replanting of trees was to take place, but this was hindered by

ferocious forest fire that wiped out close to 20,000 acres of this natural biosphere reserve.

Mangroves

Observed and GCM ensemble projections of temperature change in the region will not likely have adverse

direct impacts on the country’s mangrove forests and wetlands. However, mangroves could be indirectly

impacted since increased temperatures will be damaging to coral reefs that mangroves depend on for

shelter from wave action and for interchange of nutrients. SLR is expected to pose the greatest climate

change threat to mangroves (McLeod & Salm, 2006). An estimated 2-8% of Belize’s wetlands are likely to be

impacted by 1-2 m SLR (Simpson et al., 2010). SLR and salt water intrusion will increase soil salinity and may

allow wetland vegetation to spread inland. However, if mangroves are obstructed from migrating inland

due to man-made infrastructure or the topography of the land, then they will eventually be overcome by

SLR and lost.

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The location of mangrove stands along coastlines makes them particularly vulnerability to the impacts of

hurricane-force winds and storm surge. Extreme cyclonic events strip trees of their leaves, alter seed

dispersal and seedling recruitment and inundated root systems with sediment (Rathcke & Landry, 2003).

Mangrove species exhibit different responses to storm damage and a forest’s community structure could

thus be changed by tropical storms and hurricanes. The long term effects of extreme events on mangrove

stands are uncertain but will most likely mean a loss of the many essential services provided by these

ecosystems. A significant portion of fisheries catch may be negatively affected by the loss of mangroves.

The best approach is therefore to actively protect and replant mangrove forest where possible given the

economic and life saving benefits they offer. Community-led replanting activities in Placencia and Caye

Caulker have achieved positive results using new techniques such as the Riley-encasement methodology ,

see Recommendations.

Beaches

The beaches on the continental coastline and on the cayes of Belize have been damaged in recent years by

a series of violent and unusually frequent storms, including Hurricane Mitch (1998), Hurricane Keith (2000),

Hurricane Iris (2001), Hurricane Dean (2007) and Hurricane Richard (2010). While North Atlantic hurricanes

and tropical storms appear to have increased in intensity over the last 30 years, there is still debate

regarding whether this represents a long-term trend. Observed and projected increases in SSTs indicate

potential for continuing increases in hurricane activity and model projections (although still relatively

primitive) indicate that this may occur through increases in intensity of events (including increases in near

storm rainfalls and peak winds), but not necessarily though increases in frequency. RCM projections for the

Caribbean indicate potential decreases in the frequency of tropical cyclone-like vortices under warming

scenarios due to changes in wind shear.

Climate change, in particular the projected increase in SLR and extreme weather events, is likely to increase

rates of beach erosion. As sea levels rise gradually, shorelines retreat inland and beach area is reduced. A

reduction in the width of the beach buffer zone will leave coastal infrastructure more vulnerable to erosive

wave action and possibly result in the loss of critical fish landing sites.

Climate change impacts on beaches will also threaten the survival of species such as marine turtles, iguanas

and shore birds. A 1 to 2 m SLR is predicted to damage an astounding 44-60% of turtle nesting sites in

Belize (Simpson et al., 2010). Intense tropical cyclones and accompanying storm surges will also alter beach

profiles and impact on nesting areas (Simpson et al., 2010). Warmer average daily temperatures may skew

sex ratios in developing eggs and thereby reduced the reproductive capacity of sea turtles. Such impacts

will mean a disruption in marine ecosystem and a potential loss of revenue for the country’s expanding

ecotourism industry. As a signatory to the Convention on the International Trade of Endangered Species of

Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), Belize has an obligation to protect these marine reptiles.

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Figure 4.5.6: Coastal defences in San Pedro (Belize) built to prevent further beach erosion (Source: CARIBSAVE, 2010)

The loss of beaches and changes to the beachscape will affect recreation activities as well as the livelihoods

of those employed in fisheries, water-sports operations and related activities. The reduced aesthetic appeal

see Figure 4.5.6, will mean reduced quality of one of the countries key tourist attractions.

Coral reefs

Belize’s reefs have been subjected to a number of weather and climate related events, including Hurricane

Mitch (1998), Hurricane Keith (2000), Hurricane Iris (2001), Hurricane Dean (2007) and Hurricane Richard

(2010), which have severely impacted their health. Belize’s reefs also suffered impacts of mass bleaching

events in 1995 and 1998, both of which coincided with elevated sea temperatures and calm seas. Recent

studies suggest that countries’ reefs have not recovered from the combined impacts of 1998 when mass

coral bleaching and damage from Hurricane Mitch led to losses in coral cover of 50% or more on some reefs

(Kramer and Kramer, 2000). Corals are sensitive to temperature changes and are stressed by changes of

about 1°C above average seasonal temperature. In response to elevated SST, corals expel the symbiotic

green algae (zooxanthellae) causing them to appear white, hence the term “bleached”.

A 2006 survey of 140 reefs throughout Belize found that live coral cover has declined from a level of 25 –

30% in the mid-1990’s to an average of 11% (McField and Bood, 2007). The cause of this decline is due to

over-fishing, pollution, sedimentation, increased population in coastal areas, weak legislation and the mass

coral bleaching events of 1995 and 1998.

Observed sea surface temperatures (SST) in the waters surrounding Belize do not indicate any significant

trends during the period 1960-2006. GCM projections indicate increases in SST from +0.8˚C to +2.7˚C by the

2080s across all three emissions scenarios. Increases in SST of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more

frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or

acclimatisation by corals (Nicholls R. P., 2007).

Ocean acidification caused by rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels may hinder coral growth and

regeneration going forward (Orr et al., 2005). SLR and increased storm intensity also pose a particular

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threat to coastal populations, which will make the buffering role played by coral reefs and mangroves

increasingly important as climate change intensifies.

Increased frequency of bleaching episodes means reduced recovery time for coral polyps, greater likelihood

of mortality and increased susceptibility to disease. Of further concern is that warmer oceanic waters will

facilitate the uptake of anthropogenic CO2, which creates additional stress on coral reefs. Increased CO2

fertilisation lowers seawater pH, potentially having a negative impact on coral and other calcifying

organisms since more acidic waters can dissolve and thus weaken the skeletal structure of such organisms

(Hofmann et al., 2010).

Other climate related impacts are expected from SLR and extreme events. Rising sea levels may reduce the

amount of available light necessary for the photosynthetic processes of corals and hurricanes can cause

extensive structural damage to coral reefs. The rugged nature of a reef helps to break up waves and

disperse wave energy, thereby protecting the shoreline from wave impact. However, in so doing, coral

reefs can be broken apart and even uprooted from the substrate. Climate change is expected to increase

the intensity of tropical cyclones and this will hinder the recovery of corals from damages experienced from

previous events.

The ability of coral reef ecosystems to withstand the impacts of climate change will depend on the extent

of degradation from other anthropogenic pressures and the frequency of future bleaching events (Donner,

2005). Coral reefs have been shown to keep pace with rapid postglacial SLR when not subjected to

environmental or anthropogenic stresses (Hallock, 2005). It is therefore increasingly important to reduce

the impacts of those local stressors over which there is a measure of control (e.g. overfishing, pollution,

siltation) in order to increase the resilience of coral reefs and hence their ability to adapt to the current and

future changes in their environment.

The increasing evidence of over-fishing in Belize (see section on Fisheries) and the recent shift towards

targeting parrotfish is a worrying trend that will reduce the health of coral reefs and their ability to

withstand and recover from the increasing impacts of climate change.

Figure 4.5.7: Coral reef near San Pedro (Belize) showing extensive mortality associated with pollution, over-fishing and mass coral bleaching events

(Source: CARIBSAVE, 2010)

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Seagrasses

Climate change presents a relatively new threat to seagrass ecosystems and as such the impacts of climate

change on seagrass beds remain largely uncertain. Potential threats may arise from SLR, changes in

localised salinity, increased SST and intensity of extreme weather events. As with corals, SLR may reduce

the sunlight available to sea grass beds and hence reduce their productivity. While there is no consensus

amongst the models as to whether the frequencies and intensities of rainfall on the heaviest rainfall days

will increase or decrease in the region, increased rainfall could mean a localised decrease in salinity and

resulting decrease in productivity of sea grass habitats. On the other hand, CO2 enrichment of the ocean

may have a positive effect on photosynthesis and growth (Campbell, McKenzie, & Kerville, 2006).

Associated ocean acidification may not hamper primary productivity of sea grasses since photosynthetic

activity of dense sea grass stands have been shown to increase local pH. The impact of increased SST on

seagrass beds in the Caribbean is uncertain since studies have suggested that the photosynthetic

mechanism of tropical seagrasses becomes damaged at temperatures of 40 - 45°C (Campbell, McKenzie, &

Kerville, 2006).

Increasingly intense hurricanes can have severe impact on these ecosystems; after a hurricane, beaches are

often strewn with mats of dead seagrass. Periods of intense rainfall are likely to cause massive

sedimentation, thus increasing the turbidity of waters surrounding seagrass beds, smothering plants and

blocking essential light. Key economic sectors such as fisheries and dive tourism will likely suffer losses if

seagrass ecosystems are degraded.

Fisheries

Little is known about the long-term effects of climate change on the Caribbean Sea and on its fisheries. As

discussed in previous sections, climate change will generally have negative and possibly debilitating impacts

on those ecosystems that are important to various life stages of commercial fish, namely coral reefs,

seagrass beds and mangroves. Possible consequences are a reduction in the abundance and diversity of

reef fish, with implications for livelihoods, food security and the availability of seafood for the tourism

sector.

Increased periods of precipitation will increase the quantity of freshwater outflow into estuaries and the

near-shore areas causing localised desalination of coastal waters. The long-term effect of localised

desalination on fish, as well as on their critical habitats, is uncertain. Warmer waters may drive pelagic

species away from the tropics in search of cooler temperatures and could potentially alter breeding and

migration patterns.

Of further concern to the fisheries sector is the effect that global warming will have on the incidence of

vector borne diseases. Ciguatoxin infection tends to occur more frequently in northern Caribbean

countries. However, there is the concern that SST increases may expand the range of the infectious algae to

other parts of the Caribbean and increase the frequency of algal blooms that can contaminate some

seafood species (Confalonieri et al., 2007; Tester et al., 2010). Since 1980, a number of large-scale mass

mortalities of fish have occurred in the Caribbean Region but were poorly documented or researched

(Williams & Bunkley-Williams, 2000). The unprecedented scale of impacts from climate change on the

fisheries sector should give impetus to researching climate change impacts on regional fisheries and

motivate immediate action to build the resilience of the natural resources which support it and the

adaptive capacity of the people who depend on them.

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4.6. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure

and Settlements

4.6.1. Background

Small islands and mainland territories have much of their infrastructure and settlements located on or near

the coast, including tourism, government, health, commercial and transportation facilities. With its high-

density development along the coast, the tourism sector is particularly vulnerable to climate change and

SLR. Belize is one of the Caribbean’s most important tourism destinations where the threat of SLR has been

identified as a particular concern in both the short and long-term. Belize relies on its tourist industry for

much of its national income and therefore the economic effects of SLR and storm induced erosions are very

significant. Of critical importance is the threat of beach erosion to the majority of existing and expected

tourism facilities sited in areas located near the coastline (e.g. Caye Caulker and San Pedro). This section of

the report will focus on the coastal vulnerabilities associated with ‘slow-onset’ impacts of climate change,

particularly inundation from SLR and SLR induced beach erosion, as they relate to tourism infrastructure

(e.g., resort properties), tourism attractions (e.g., sea turtle nesting sites) and related supporting tourism

infrastructure (e.g. transportation networks). These vulnerabilities will be assessed at both the national

(Belize) and local scale (Caye Caulker, Rocky Point, San Pedro), with adaptation and protection

infrastructure options discussed. Please refer to the Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management section

for climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation measures associated with event driven or ‘fast-onset’

hazards (e.g. hurricanes, storm surges, cyclones).

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Figure 4.6.1: Belize - Overview Map

Coastal areas already face pressure from natural forces (wind, waves, tides and currents) and human

activities, (beach sand removal and inappropriate construction of shoreline structures). The impacts of

climate change, in particular SLR, will magnify these pressures and accelerate coastal erosion. Areas at

greatest risk in Belize are in Caye Caulker, Rocky Point and San Pedro, including notable resorts, tourist

attractions and transportation infrastructure that will therefore be affected by SLR. The estimated coastline

retreat due to SLR will have serious consequences for land uses along the coast (Mimura et al., 2007;

Simpson et al., 2010) including tourism development and infrastructure. A primary design goal of coastal

tourism resorts is to maintain coastal aesthetics of uninterrupted sea views and access to beach areas. As a

result, tourism resort infrastructure is highly vulnerable to SLR inundation and related beach erosion.

Moreover, the beaches themselves are critical assets for tourism in Belize, with a large proportion of

beaches being lost to inundation and accelerated erosion even before resort infrastructure is damaged.

4.6.2. Vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and settlements to climate change

As outlined in the Climate Modelling section, there is overwhelming scientific evidence that SLR associated

with climate change is projected to occur in the 21st Century and beyond, representing a chronic threat to

the coastal zones in Belize. The sea level has risen in the Caribbean at about 3.1 mm per year from 1950 to

2000 (Church, White, Coleman, Lambeck, & Mitrovica, 2004). Global SLR is anticipated to increase as much

as 1.5 m to 2 m above present levels in the 21st Century (Rahmstorf, 2007; Vermeer & Rahmstorf, 2009;

Grinsted, Moore, & Jevrejeva, 2009; Jevrejeva, Moore, & Grinsted, 2008; Horton, Herweijer, Rosenzweig,

Liu, Gornitz, & Ruane, 2008). It is also important to note that recent studies of the relative magnitude of

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regional SLR also suggest that because of the Caribbean’s proximity to the equator, SLR will be more

pronounced than in some other regions (Bamber, Riva, Vermeersen, & LeBrocq, 2009; Hu, Meehl, Han, &

Yin, 2009).

Based on the SLR scenarios for the Caribbean (see SLR Modelling section) and consistent with other

assessments of the its potential impacts (e.g. Dasgupta et al., 2007), 1 m and 2 m SLR scenarios and beach

erosion scenarios of 50 m and 100 m were calculated to assess the potential vulnerability of major tourism

resources across Belize. Several beaches in the Caribbean have been monitored for several decades and

indicate there is change from season to season and from year to year, but the underlying trend in many

locations has been a loss of beaches due to accelerated erosion. Figure 4.6.2 illustrates that the impacts of

beach erosion and SLR are already occurring in Belize.

Figure 4.6.2: Evidence of Erosion and SLR in Caye Caulker, Belize

To examine the exposure of Belize to SLR, research grade Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and

Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) data sets that were recently

publically released by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japanese Ministry

of Economy, Trade and Industry, were integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). The ASTER

GDEM was downloaded from Japan’s Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Centre using a rough outline of

the Caribbean to select the needed tiles, which were then loaded into an ArcMap document. The next step

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was to mosaic the tiles into a larger analysis area, followed by the creation of the SLR scenarios as binary

raster layers to analyse whether an area is affected by SLR through the reclassification of the GDEM

mosaics (see Simpson et al., 2010 for a more detailed discussion of the methodology). These assessments

were used to calculate the impacts of SLR on Belize as a whole.

To examine SLR-induced coastal erosion, a simplified approximation of the Bruun Rule (shoreline recession

= SLR X 100) that has been used in other studies on the implications of SLR for coastal erosion was adopted

for this analysis. The prediction of how SLR will reshape coastlines is influenced by a range of coastal

morphological factors (coastal geology, bathymetry, waves, tidal currents, human interventions). The most

widely used method of quantifying the response of sandy coastlines to rising sea levels is the Bruun Rule.

This rule is appropriate for assessing shoreline retreat caused by the erosion of beach material from the

higher part of the beach and deposition in the lower beach zone, re-establishing an equilibrium beach

profile inland (Zhang, Douglas, & Leatherman, 2004).

Results from the calculated SLR-induced erosion for a 50 m and 100 m scenario on key tourism attractions

at the national level (resorts and sea turtle nesting sites) are provided in Table 4.6.1. Indeed if erosion is

damaging tourism infrastructure, it means that the beach will have essentially disappeared. With projected

50 m erosion almost all of the major tourism resorts would be impacted (95%), with all (100%) of the sea

turtle nesting sites impacted. With a 100 m erosion scenario, all (100%) of the major tourism resorts in

Belize will be at risk. Transportation infrastructure will also be negatively impacted, with a 1 m SLR

inundating 50% of the airport lands in Belize, 40% of the seaport lands and 4% of the major road networks.

Such impacts would transform coastal tourism, with implications for property values, insurance costs,

destination competitiveness, marketing and wider issues of local employment and the economic wellbeing

of thousands of employees.

Table 4.6.1: Impacts associated with 1 m and 2 m SLR and 50 m and 100 m beach erosion in Belize

Tourism Attractions Transportation Infrastructure

Major Tourism Resorts

Sea Turtle Nesting

Sites

Airport Lands

Major Road

Networks

Seaport Lands

SLR 1.0 m 73% 44% 50% 4% 40%

2.0 m 86% 60% - 6% -

Erosion 50 m 95% 100% - - -

100 m 100% - - - -

Belize is highly dependent on international tourism and the country will be particularly affected with annual

costs as a direct result of SLR. For instance, annual reductions in the contribution of tourism to Belize’s

national GDP as a result of reduced amenity value from beach loss due to SLR is estimated to be between

US $518 million in 2050 to over US $1.7 billion in 2080 (based on a mid-range scenario) (Simpson et al.,

2010). Infrastructure critical to the tourism sector that will be impacted by SLR will result in high capital

costs to rebuild the infrastructure. For example, to rebuild tourist resorts damaged and inundated by SLR is

estimated to amount to over US $2.1 billion in 2050, up to US $5 billion in 2080. Capital costs to rebuild

transportation infrastructure is also high, capital costs to rebuild airport lands is estimated to be between

US $57 million by 2050 to US $98 million by 2080. Capital costs to rebuild ports are estimated to be

between $38 million in 2050, to $66 million by 2080. Capital costs to rebuild major roads are estimated to

be between $11 million in 2050, to $19 million by 2080 (Simpson et al., 2010).

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In addition to the national assessment, the CARIBSAVE Partnership coordinated a field research team with

members from the University of Waterloo (Canada) and the staff from the Belize Tourism Board, Coastal

Zone Management Authority and Institute and the Hol Chan Marine Reserve to complete detailed coastal

profile surveying (Figure 4.6.3). Using survey grade GPS equipment, CARIBSAVE field teams conducted

survey transects (perpendicular to the shoreline) at three locations in Belize where tourism infrastructure

was present (i.e. Caye Caulker, Rocky Point, San Pedro).

Study sites closer to the equator do not support Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) and are better

suited for Real Time Kinematic (RTK) GPS systems. This common method often used in land based and

hydrographic surveys requires the setting up of a base station over a known location at each study site. Due

to the unavailability of a close reference station a TOPCON RTK GPS system including base station (15 km

radius), antenna, survey stick and data logger was used for data collection in Belize.

The Base Station receiver was set up in wide open areas to maximize both study site and satellite coverage.

A survey stick rover unit was then sent out to survey beach elevations along transects within the 15 km

base station coverage area. Finally, distances between points along transects were measured using a Lecia

Disto laser distancing meter.

Figure 4.6.3: Staff from the Hol Chan Marine Reserve learning how to use the High Resolution Coastal Profile Surveying with an RTK GPS System.

Vertical measurements were adjusted according to the height of the receiver relative to the ground. The

water’s edge was fixed to a datum point of 0 for the field measurements, but later adjusted according to

tide charts. Generally, satellite connections were very good, receiving up to 10 satellites, resulting in sub-

metre accuracy. The mean vertical accuracy for all points was approximately 0.015 to 0.3 m while the

horizontal accuracy had a mean average of 0.015 to 0.2 m accuracy. Each transect point measurement was

averaged over 30 readings taken at 1 second intervals. At each point, the nature of the ground cover (e.g.,

sand, vegetation, concrete) was logged to aid in the post-processing analysis. Ground control points (GCP)

were taken to anchor the GPS positions to locations that are identifiable from aerial photographs to

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improve horizontal accuracy. These were taken where suitable landmarks existed at each transect location

and throughout the country. GCP points were measured over 60 readings at 1 second intervals.

Following the field collection, all of the GPS points were downloaded on to a Windows PC, and converted

into several GIS formats. Most notably, the GPS points were converted into ESRI Shapefile format to be

used with ESRI ArcGIS suite. Aerial Imagery was obtained from Google Earth, and was geo‐referenced using

the GCPs collected. The data was then inspected for errors and incorporated with other GIS data collected

while in the field. Absolute mean sea level was determined by comparing the first GPS point (water’s edge)

to tide tables to determine the high tide mark. Three dimensional topographic models of each of the study

sites were then produced from a raster topographic surface using the GPS elevation points as base height

information. A Triangular Irregular Network (TIN) model was created to represent the beach profiles in

three dimensions. Contour lines were delineated from both the TIN and raster topographic surface model.

For the purpose of this study, contour lines were represented for every metre of elevation change above

sea level. Using the topographic elevation data, flood lines were delineated in one metre intervals. In an

effort to share the data with a wider audience, all GIS data will be compatible with several software

applications, including Google Earth.

The high resolution imagery provided by this technique is essential to assess the vulnerability of

infrastructure and settlements to future SLR in Belize. The imagery also has the ability to identify individual

properties, making it a very powerful risk communication tool. Having this information available for

community level dialogue on potential adaptation strategies is highly valuable. Detailed maps from the

three study locations in Belize are provided in Figure 4.6.4, Figure 4.6.5 and Figure 4.6.6, highlighting total

land and beach loss due to SLR.

Figure 4.6.4: Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR, Caye Caulker Village, Caye Caulker

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Figure 4.6.5: Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR, Rocky Point, North Ambergris Caye

Figure 4.6.6: Total Land and Beach Loss due to SLR, San Pedro Town, Ambergris Caye

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In Caye Caulker, total land loss due to SLR is projected to be 36,065.03 m2, with total beach losses of

4,327.43 m2, impacting several tourism properties including Caye Reef Beachfront Luxury, Ocean Pearl

Royale Hotel, Costa Maya Beach Cabanas and Sea Dreams Hotel (Figure 4.6.4). Rocky point is projected to

lose 24,897.16 m2 due to SLR, with almost double the total beach loss as Caye Caulker at 8,150.27 m2

(Figure 4.6.5). The greatest loss of total land and beach area to SLR is projected to occur in San Pedro

(Figure 4.6.6). Total land loss is estimated to be 101,068.19 m2, with a total beach loss of 38,779.16 m2. This

will impact a number of major tourism properties including Exotic Cay Resort, Belize Yacht Club, Ramon’s

Beach Resort, Sunbreeze Hotel, the Phoenix and Paradise Villas.

Beach area losses were calculated at the study sites in Belize for 0.5 m, 1 m, 2 m and 3 m scenarios (Table

4.6.2). At 0.5 m SLR scenario, Rocky Point is projected to lose 75% of its beach area, followed by San Pedro

(19%) and Caye Caulker (17%). With a 1 m SLR, Caye Caulker would lose almost its entire beach area (96%),

followed by Rocky Point (90%) and Sand Pedro (45%). With a 2 m SLR, both Caye Caulker and Rocky Point

would lose all (100%) of its beach area, with San Pedro losing its beach area with a 3 m SLR scenario.

Table 4.6.2: Beach Area Losses at Three Beach Areas in Belize

Caye Caulker Rocky Point San Pedro

SLR

Scenario

Beach Area

Lost To SLR

m²

Beach Area

Lost

(%)

Beach Area

Lost To SLR

m²

Beach Area

Lost

(%)

Beach Area

Lost To SLR

m²

Beach Area

Lost

(%)

0.5m 723 17% 6112 75% 7375 19%

1.0m 3424 96% 1251 90% 10147 45%

2.0m 180 100% 788 100% 18662 93%

3.0m - - - - 2596 100%

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4.7. Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management

4.7.1. History of disaster management globally

Though natural hazards have been affecting populations and interrupting both natural and human

processes for millennia, only in the last several decades have concerted efforts to manage and respond to

their impacts on human populations and settlements become a priority. Most recently, these efforts have

been informed by work at the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), a United Nations agency

for disaster reduction created after the 1990s International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. After

several years of reporting on hazards and impacts, the ISDR created the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)

in 2005. This strategy aimed at preparing for and responding to disasters was adopted by many countries in

order to address a growing concern over the vulnerability of humans and their settlements. The HFA took

the challenges identified through disaster management research and practice and created five priorities:

Priority #1: Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and local priority with a strong

institutional basis for implementation

Priority #2: Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning.

Priority #3: Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at

all levels

Priority #4: Reduce the underlying risk factors.

Priority #5: Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels.

(ISDR, 2005)

Extensive elaboration of each priority is beyond the scope of this report. However, there are some key

points to discuss before moving forward to a discussion of the local disaster management context. Priority

#1 of the HFA can be thought of as the foundation for hazard and disaster management.

Given that governance and institutions also play a critical role in reducing disaster risk,…fully

engaging environmental managers in national disaster risk management mechanisms and

incorporating risk reduction criteria into environmental regulatory frameworks [are key options

for improving how institutions address disaster-related issues] (UNEP, 2007, p. 15).

The Hyogo Framework suggests strengthening effective and flexible institutions for enforcement and

balancing of competing interests (UNEP, 2007).

Priority #2 focuses on spatial planning to identify inappropriate development zones, appropriate buffer

zones, land uses or building codes and the use of technology to model, forecast and project risks (UNEP,

2007, p. 15). The development of technology for mapping, data analysis, modelling and measurement of

hazard information offers decision makers a much better understanding of the interaction hazards have

with their economy and society.

Priority #3 encourages the promotion and integration of hazard education within schools to spread

awareness of the risks and vulnerability to the individuals of at-risk communities. This relates to climate

change awareness as well. The countries of the Caribbean, including Belize, not only face annual hazards,

but will also be directly affected by changes in sea levels, more extreme temperatures and other predicted

climate changes. By educating children, hazard information will be transferred to adults and basic

knowledge about threats and proper response to hazards, as well as climate change, can help improve

community-level resilience. It is important that hazard and climate change awareness be promoted within

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the tourism sector as well, since tourists may not be familiar with the hazards in their destination and will

thus require direction from their hosts.

Priority #4 of the HFA demands the synthesis of the previous three priorities: governance, education and

awareness and appropriate technologies. “To develop and implement effective plans aimed at saving lives,

protecting the environment and protecting property threatened by disaster, all relevant stakeholders must

be engaged: multi-stakeholder dialogue is key to successful emergency response” (UNEP, 2007). Not only is

this dialogue encouraged here; Goal 8 of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) also advocates for

participation and open communication. As climate change threatens the successful achievement of the HFA

and the MDGs, simultaneous dialogue about development and risk management will ensure continued

resilience in communities and countries across the Caribbean.

The final priority of the Hyogo Framework, Priority #5, is geared toward a more proactive plan of action,

rather than the reactive disaster management that has failed to save lives on many occasions in the past. It

is now commonplace to have this same proactive approach to disaster management. However, finding

ways to implement and execute these plans has proven more difficult (Clinton, 2006). As you will note,

managing disaster risks requires a cross-sectoral understanding of the interdependent pressures that

create vulnerability, as well as demanding cooperation of various sectors. It is unclear whether Belize has

adopted the HFA as they have not submitted a progress report. However, the framework monitoring and

reporting tools offer a guide that could be of use to Belize in assessing specific areas of the disaster

management system.

4.7.2. Natural hazards in the Caribbean and Belize

There are three broad categories of hazards and the countries in the Caribbean Basin could face all, or

most, of them at any given time.

Table 4.7.1: Types of Hazards in the Caribbean Basin

Hydro-meteorological Hurricane

Tropical Storm

Flooding

Drought

Storm Surge

Landslide/mud-flow

Geological Earthquake

Volcano

Tsunami

Biological Epidemic

Wildfire/Bushfire

Hydro-meteorological hazards: Belize is located in the hurricane belt and therefore has experienced many

hurricane and tropical storm impacts (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). The primary hazards facing Belize are

hurricanes and tropical storms with high winds and flooding causing the principle damages to the country

(GFDRR, 2010). “Belize City is especially vulnerable to flood damage due to its very low-lying land and

exposed position on the coast... This spurred the Government to build a new capital at Belmopan, 50 miles

inland and to encourage the relocation of the main population centre. This move, although widely

commended, remains incomplete. The risk in Belize City therefore remains and it is estimated that the city

faces a 10% chance of hurricane storm wind speeds between 178 km/h-209 km/h during a ten-year period”

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(GFDRR, 2010). While the Government would likely be able to still function from the new, safer location,

there remains a large population of persons still in the Belize City and a total of 45% of the population are

in low-lying, coastal areas.

Geological hazards: Belize is exposed only to a minor risk of earthquake and therefore, is also only exposed

to a small tsunami threat as well. The submarine volcano, Kick-‘em-Jenny near Grenada, has erupted 11

times since 1939, most recently in 2001; a Kick-‘em-Jenny eruption would generate waves that could reach

Belize (GFDRR, 2010).

Biological hazards: Health related disasters are possible in any country and there are vectors such as

mosquitoes that can transmit diseases. The mosquito population size is directly linked with climatological

factors and flooding or heavy rainfall can increase their nesting sites. Greater discussion of the links

between disasters, epidemics and climate is however, located in the section on Human Health

4.7.3. Case study examination of vulnerability

Belize has experienced losses and damages from recent disasters that are worth examining in order to

identify vulnerabilities in the country. Specifically, the post-disaster time period is one where vulnerabilities

can be identified and addressed through adaptation and recovery efforts. The following section will

describe some recent disaster events in Belize with the purpose of revealing the dynamic pressures that

generate and perpetuate vulnerability.

Hurricane Richard 2010

On October 21st 2010 Hurricane Richard, moving in a westerly direction, approached Belize as a Category 1

storm, with 90 mph winds (NEMO, 2010a). In preparation for landfall, 4,639 persons sought shelter and it is

suspected that even more coastal dwellers moved inland to be with family (NEMO, 2010a). Richard’s path

crossed through both Belize City and Belmopan, affecting some of the most populous towns and villages as

well in: Belize, Cayo, Orange Walk and Stann Creek Districts (NEMO, 2010a). Total direct losses from this

Category 1 storm are estimated at BZ $49.2 million including 831 destroyed houses (see Figure 4.7.1), 1,500

acres of unharvested orange and grapefruit trees (NEMO, 2010a).

The hurricane brought with it a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet that led to serious water damage to homes near

the coast (NEMO, 2010b). Infrastructure damages were seen in the public utility and tourism sector, among

other sectors. Damages to the electricity distribution system cost an estimated BZ $250,000 and resulted in

lost power over several days in parts of Belize (NEMO, 2010b). Water distribution systems were also

affected by the power loss. Damages to the tourism sector demanded reconstruction and repairs be

attempted in the short time left before the November start of the tourist season. Figure 4.7.2 shows the

worst affected areas and the wide coverage that Richard was able to reach due to the size of the cyclone.

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Figure 4.7.1: Damaged housing from Hurricane Richard in Belize 2010 (Source: NEMO, 2010a)

Figure 4.7.2: Map of areas worst affected by Hurricane Richard (Source: NEMO, 2010a)

After the immediate emergency settled, initial damage assessments were conducted. Housing can be said

to be highly vulnerable to strong winds and flooding. Damage assessments found major damages in Belize

City, where 60% of the 890 homes4 were damaged and the Relief Supplies Subcommittee assisted over

1,400 families in and around the city (NEMO, 2010b). Total loss estimates in the housing sector amounted

4 This figure was updated in the Oct. 27, 2010 Damage Assessment

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to BZ $14.1 million. Health and Education sectors are less vulnerable to hurricanes as evidenced by the

minimal damages from wind impacts on windows and roofs, which subsequently resulted in water damages

to equipment and school supplies (NEMO, 2010b). There were no major interruptions to health services,

demonstrating the resilience and preparedness of the health sector.

Agriculture and fisheries were also impacted by Hurricane Richard. The vulnerability of these two industries

is tied to weather systems in both the long and the short term. The citrus trees damaged by the storm were

full of fruit that was quickly going to spoil if not retrieved from the ground and much of the fruit was too

immature for harvest at the time of the approaching storm. The losses in the citrus industry were estimated

to be 30% of the season’s crop, or BZ $29.1 million (NEMO, 2010b). The papaya industry also experienced

losses. These agricultural losses should only last one season, though Fisheries, in contrast, experienced

indirect impacts from damaged ecosystems (mangroves, corals and sea grasses). These damages will affect

fish catches long term. Direct losses to equipment and vessels affected both artisanal and commercial

fishers at an estimated cost of BZ $4.28 million (NEMO, 2010b). The specific discussion of vulnerability of

marine and terrestrial biodiversity and the agriculture sector are discussed in sections 4.5 and 4.3,

respectively.

Tsunami and Earthquakes

A tsunami is also possible in Belize and the earthquake near Honduras in 2009 stimulated wave action and

concern in the country. At the time of the 2009 earthquake, Belize did not have any seismological

monitoring, tsunami monitoring network, nor was there a tsunami early warning system in place (Williams

R. , 2009). As a result, Belize had to rely on the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) for information.

This system allowed tsunami warnings to reach coastal communities and towns within 15 minutes,

however no tsunami occurred and the warning was dropped after 90 minutes (Williams R. , 2009).

While there were no tsunami from the earthquake in 2009, many lessons were identified that could ensure

the development of an effective warning system following the event. Primary lessons related to the

communities’ lack of knowledge about what the alarms and sirens represented and their lack of knowledge

about how to react (evacuate) and where evacuation centres were located (Williams R. , 2009).

Furthermore, there are equipment needs that could improve the system – seismological monitoring

network and sea level monitoring are integral to rapid response (Williams R. , 2009). Vulnerability to

tsunamis in Belize is a concern, but efforts to learn the lessons identified after the 2009 earthquake have

started the process of vulnerability reduction. Across the Caribbean greater efforts are being made within

CDEMA and other agencies. The CARICOM Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), in Belize, have tidal

gauges that NEMO should have access to in real time as that would assist their national efforts (Williams R,

2009).

4.7.4. Vulnerability of the tourism industry in Belize

Belize has seen tropical storms, hurricanes and storm surge damage to its natural resources in the past and

although efforts to use structural protection (e.g. groynes and seawalls) have been attempted,

development has led to the degradation of many valuable natural protection elements. As a result, many

hotels and resorts remain vulnerable to disaster impacts (see detailed discussion in Section on Sea Level

Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements).

To address the issue of disaster risk management (DRM) in the tourism industry, Belize’s Sustainable

Tourism Program has been initiated with specific DRM projects in some of the most tourism centred areas

of the country (Belize Sustainable Tourism Project, 2011). Throughout 2010 and 2011, National Stakeholder

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Consultations have been conducted with the intention of creating site specific sustainable tourism plans

that coincide with the National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan. Disasters and emergencies have affected

many communities of Belize and thus DRM Plans are also being drafted for the communities of Placencia,

Cayo, Ambergris and Belize City (Belize Sustainable Tourism Project, 2011). The final part of the project is

an Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Building initiative.

Recognizing the need to further diversify the tourism product and promote a wider

distribution of benefits, complementary investments under the STP [sustainable tourism

project] will be made in developing new products, strengthening institutional capacity and

coordination (specifically targeting the way key institutions coordinate initiatives among

themselves and with private investors, conduct market research and monitor performance

of the sector) and in capacity building within two emerging destinations based on their

market potential and social needs (Belize Sustainable Tourism Project, 2011).

This project will assist in reducing vulnerability of the tourism industry and also help build resilience within

the institutions and businesses involved, directly and indirectly, in tourism activities. More on the adaptive

capacity that these and other plans offer Belize are included in the later policy discussions in section 5.7.

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4.8. Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development

Where disasters take place in societies governed by power relations based on gender, age

or social class, their impact will also reflect these relations and as a result, people’s

experience of the disaster will vary.

Madhavi Ariyabandu (ECLAC, UNIFEM and UNDP, 2005)

4.8.1. Background

The importance of tourism in Belize has increased significantly over traditionally central economic sectors

such as wood extraction, agriculture and fishing. Tourism depends heavily on the natural resource base and

in particular, marine resources are vital to the sustainability of the industry (Brune & Sanders, 2008). With

the growth in tourism, employment in this sector has increased commensurately. Several persons have

abandoned traditional economic activities to engage in tourism and young citizens joining the labour force

look to this sector for employment because it is perceived to be more lucrative. In Belize, as with other

Caribbean territories, women depend on tourism for employment more so than men. Approximately 15%

of employed women work in the tourism sector, compared to 8% of employed men (Halcrow Group

Limited, 2010). Males are more involved in the traditional economic activities (26% of employed males

work in agriculture) as well as construction (12% of employed males).

The recent global financial crisis affected several sectors and had a negative impact on employment.

Unemployment in Belize rose within the most recent years for which data is available and this incline is

more acute in the women and youth who are part of the labour force. Over half of the unemployed

population are under the age of 24. Women have historically recorded higher and more variable

unemployment rates than men and in 2009, unemployed women comprised 62% of the total unemployed

population in Belize (see Table 4.8.1). Women are more likely to be affected by economic shocks than men


Table 4.8.1: Unemployment in Belize, 2002-2009

Year Unemployment (%) Women as % of

Unemployed Female Male Total

2002 15 7 10 50

2005 17 7 11 57

2007 10 8 9 43

2009 20 8 13 62

(Source: Halcrow Group Limited, 2010)

Poverty in Belize also appeared to have increased over the last decade. The Belize Country Poverty

Assessment (CPA; see Halcrow Group Limited, 2010) reported that in 2009, 31% of all households and 41%

of the Belizean population were deemed to be poor, which increased from approximately 25% and 34% of

households and population in 2002, respectively (see Figure 4.8.1 for individual poverty rates).

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Figure 4.8.1: Individual Poverty in Belize, 2002 and 2009 (Source: Halcrow Group Limited, 2010)

Several reasons have been posited to rationalise the marked incline in poverty rates, but notably revolve

around (1) economic impacts and (2) weather and climate impacts which surfaced within the last 4-5 years:

The advent of the global financial crisis.

Slow economic growth and severe declines in agriculture (sugar cane, bananas) and fisheries,

coupled with a decrease in employment and corresponding increase in unemployment rates.

Limited multiplier effects from economic growth in some sectors.

The impacts of hurricanes (Hurricane Dean in 2007) and flooding (2008) on economic and social

sectors, but in particular, on agriculture (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010).

There is no direct relationship between gender and poverty. The difference in percentage of males (42%)

and females (40%) living in poverty is negligible. Female headed households (29%) are also less likely to be

poor compared to male headed households (32%), but only to a small degree. Approximately 60% of

female headed households also have no males of working age. Therefore, although women tend to have

heavier burdens as mothers and care givers, they demonstrate resilience in the absence of male support


Other relationships between livelihoods, gender and poverty are highlighted in the 2009 CPA:

Households where heads are not employed are more likely to be poor.

Persons working in agriculture, manufacturing, construction and elementary (unskilled) sectors are

more likely to be living in poor households.

Male and female workers living in poor households are much more likely to be employed in

unskilled occupations and, conversely are much less likely to be employed in managerial and

professional occupations.

Female workers, whether poor or not poor, are concentrated in four occupational groupings:

managerial, etc., clerical, service workers and unskilled occupations; very few are employed as

agricultural, craft or skilled manual occupations. In contrast, male workers have a much more even

distribution of occupations.

Poverty rates of households where women are employed are generally lower than those with

working men. The implication is that households where women work are less likely to be poor. It

does not imply that women are earning more than men just that total household income will be

higher in these households.

66%

23%

11%

2002

58.7% 25.5%

15.8%

2009

Not poor

Poor, but not indigent

Indigent

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If more women living in poor households are able to work, there is a greater likelihood that the

respective household can be lifted out of poverty. However, many of these women have full-time

responsibilities in child care and therefore are unable to be employed full-time (Halcrow Group

Limited, 2010).

Based on the existing conditions of these groups and the impacts that the recent economic downturn

would have had on the country, there are serious implications for individual, household and community

vulnerability to climate impacts; both gradual long-term changes and extreme short-term events.

4.8.2. Climate change vulnerability: Implications for community livelihoods,

gender, poverty and development

Belize is no stranger to severe weather and natural disasters. Some of the most significant events to impact

the country include Hurricane Hattie which destroyed the original capital (Belize City) in 1961, Hurricane Iris

in 2001, Hurricane Dean in 2007, major flood events in July and October 2008 (see Rappaport, Fernandez-

Partagas, & Beven, 1997; Halcrow Group Limited, 2010; Consejo Belize, 2011; also see the Vulnerability

Section on Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management). Vulnerability in the context of climate change is

a function of the level of exposure to climate change related or induced events, the level of sensitivity to

these events and the capacity to adapt. Climate and hydrological variability have both short and long term

manifestations at the global scale and is more often compounded by micro- and meso-scale human

activities and impacts. The observed and predicted impacts of climate change are widely acknowledged in

science and non-science circles, including communities who depend on natural resources.

Climate-sensitive or natural resource intensive livelihoods are very vulnerable to climate change impacts

because they depend so much on the stability of climate conditions or resources. As indicated previously,

groups predisposed to vulnerability include women, children and the poor, owing to their lack of access to

resources and opportunities which translates into low resilience and exposes them more to climate change

impacts than other groups. The impacts of climate change undeniably aggravate poverty in all societies and

especially where poverty is extreme and widespread (Figure 4.8.2 highlights some of these impacts). The

areas where impoverished persons reside are more often at greater risk when compared to areas inhabited

by stronger economic groups, particularly remote rural and coastal areas which are disconnected from

essential services and resources. The impacts and aftermath of extreme weather events (e.g. flooding,

drought, loss of lands and crops) and SLR (e.g. coastal erosion, salt water intrusion) deteriorate an already

dire situation and leave persons in poverty with even less resources to survive (Kettle, Hogan, & Saul, n.d.;

UNFPA, 2007).

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Figure 4.8.2: The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty

Gender is given special consideration in assessing human vulnerability owing to the different roles and

circumstances associated with men and women in society and especially in disaster preparation and

response. The Training Manual on Gender and Climate Change developed by the Global Gender and

Climate Alliance (GGCA) highlights that gender-based vulnerability is not influenced by a single factor, but

takes into account a number of factors, especially in the case of women who tend to have less or limited

access to assets when compared to men. These factors have been identified as determinant factors of

vulnerability and adaptive capacity and include physical location, resources, knowledge, technology, power,

decision-making, potential, education, health care and food (GGCA, 2009). The size and composition of an

individual or social group’s asset base (natural, physical, social, human and financial) will determine to what

extent they will be affected by and respond to climate change impacts. A larger quantity and/or diversity of

assets imply greater resilience and adaptive capacity. Conversely, a lack of assets will predispose individuals

to increased vulnerability.

While disasters create hardships for everyone, natural disasters kill, on average, more women than men or

kill women at a younger age than men (WHO, 2010b). In the Caribbean specifically, (Kambon, 2005)

highlighted the varied responses of gender to all stages of a natural disaster (predominantly hurricanes)

based on the observed social impacts of disasters following the 2004 Tropical Atlantic Hurricane season.

Some of these differences are highlighted in Table 4.8.2.

SEVERE WEATHER

•More frequent and intense floods

•Rising sea levels

•More frequent and intense storms

•More frequent and intense droughts

OUTCOMES

•Less land to use

•Loss of coastlines

•Loss of delta areas which are major sources of food production

•Spread of disease

•Increase in migration

IMPACTS ON POVERTY

•Increase in poverty owing to:

•less food and safe water

•less land for living and agriculture

•loss of livelihoods

•decline in health

•diversion of resources (people and money) away from fighting poverty to respond to disasters

(Source: Kettle, Hogan, & Saul, n.d.)

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Table 4.8.2: Examples of Gender Differences in Response to Natural Disasters in the Caribbean

PHASE ISSUES FEMALE MALE

PRE-DISASTER

Differing Vulnerabilities

- Biological Reproductive health needs No special restrictions

- Social Restricted skill base Mobile skills

- Cultural Exclusion from home construction

Exclusion from child care responsibilities

- Attitudinal (risk perception) Low level of risk tolerance High level of risk tolerance

EMERGENCY

Different coping mechanisms Suffer higher incidence of depression (crying and suicide ideation)

Alcoholism, gambling and dysfunctional behaviour

Organizing community sing-alongs and storytelling

Rescuing villagers and clearing roads

TRANSITION (REHABILITATION AND RECOVERY)

Needs Social Composition

Weak access to wage earning possibilities

Easier access to wages/income

Women prepared one-pot meals for the community

Men engaged in ‘marooning’ teams for house rebuilding

Devoted more time to community and reproductive work

Spend more time in productive work; abandonment of families and domestic and/or other responsibilities

RECONSTRUCTION

Differing priorities Priorities for shelter, economic activity, food security and health care

Priorities for agriculture, infrastructural development and economic activity

Differing access to resources; Women slower to return to labour market

Men had easy access to the labour market

Reconstruction programmes that embark on development without the inclusion of gender analysis tools

Reconstruction programmes in construction and agricultural development that favour male participation

Differing access to power in the public sphere

Women’s lack of involvement in governance mechanisms

Gender neutral governance mechanisms that do not recognize changing gender roles and relationships and favour male participation

(Source: Kambon, 2005; adapted from ECLAC, UNIFEM and UNDP, 2005)

Outlined in the Climate Modelling Section of this document are the likely changes to occur for given climate

and ocean variables for Belize over the next few decades. The outputs produced for Belize by both the

RCMs and GCMs are very similar to those of other Caribbean territories. Some of the more outstanding

similarities include:

1. An increase in the mean annual temperature and the number of ‘hot’ days and nights.

2. The likelihood of more intense cyclones resulting from warmer sea surface temperatures, although

this is not conclusive.

3. The likelihood of a decline in mean annual rainfall and the total rainfall experienced during heavy

rainfall events.

4. The relative disappearance of ‘cold’ days and nights by the 2080s.

These projections are associated with different degrees of certainty, based on the availability of observed

(recorded) data, the outputs from model simulations and the fact that some physical processes are too

110

complex to be represented by these models. In light of this, current projections and the future reality may

be different. However, some of the trends indicated in these projections (up to 2080) are currently being

observed and therefore the likelihood of these projections taking effect should not be discounted. Based on

these projections, farmers in particular will face challenges in crop yields and outputs, having to deal with

drier conditions and variable rainfall. Hotter overall temperatures will also impact on general well-being

and comfort of citizens and variable rainfall will have implications for groundwater catchment and

availability if a decline prevails.

Simpson et al., (2010) mentions that some of Belize’s key vulnerabilities, with low-lying coastal plains and

extensive coral reef systems include coral bleaching, coastal erosion and inundation from SLR and storms

and salt water intrusion of ground water resources. SLR and storm surge impacts in particular pose

significant threats. Based on the same report, a 2 m SLR scenario could likely affect at least 44 (86%) major

tourism resorts, as well as local airport, seaport and energy infrastructure. When storm surge impacts are

superimposed on SLR effects, the consequences are much greater (Simpson et al., 2010). The projections

for climate and oceanic change have serious implications for tourism infrastructure (a large part of which is

coastal), the natural environment which supports tourism and fisheries activities and the preferred climate

for tourists, who may seek alternate destinations if conditions are continually less than favourable.

Other inferences can be made based on the projections outputted by both the Regional Climate Model and

Global Climate Models. What is certain is that current climate trends will change in one way or another and

will therefore affect those industries and activities that are climate sensitive and strongly dependent on

natural resources. Gradual weather changes, SLR and the potential for increasing intensity (and possibly

frequency which, although inconclusive, should remain a priority concern and be treated as such) of

extreme weather events will have substantial effects on livelihood assets and activities in Belize and in

particular - tourism and fisheries are extremely vulnerable. The current and future effects of climate change

will have significant implications for sector contributions to GDP, employment, existing poverty levels and

other facets of economic and social development (Alcamo, et al., 2007; Wilbanks, et al., 2007)

4.8.3. Case Study: Placencia, Belize

Overview

Placencia in Belize was selected as the community in which to implement the Community Vulnerability and

Adaptive Capacity Assessment methodology developed by The CARIBSAVE Partnership based on the

established criteria and recommendations from the Government of Belize. The Placencia community has

benefitted previously from vulnerability assessment work (see Bood, 2008; Brune & Sanders, 2008) and the

work of the CARIBSAVE Partnership adds to this by way of a tourism and gender lens in the context of

household and community vulnerability to climate change.

Placencia is a small town located in the Stann Creek District, where tourism is a major part of the local

economy. It is the most southern town on the largest peninsula of the Gulf of Mexico. The eastern side of

the Peninsula is a long expanse of white sand beach as well as mangrove in some areas; the western side is

bounded by a long narrow north-south trending bay of the Caribbean Sea. The District itself is the country’s

major producer of bananas and citrus fruits and there are several shrimp processing enterprises on the

coast, including in Placencia (Bood, 2008; Brune & Sanders, 2008). Tourism is a major part of the local

economy. The Stann Creek District employs the largest percentage (14%) of the labour force in the tourism

sector, compared to other districts and undoubtedly most of the tourism employees are concentrated in

Placencia (Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). Owing to the growth of tourism in the community, a number of

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residents, especially fishermen, have changed their livelihoods to engage in tourism based activities which

require similar skills as their former job. Still, a number of the older fishermen have remained as traditional

fishermen (Brune & Sanders, 2008).

Despite the benefits that tourism has brought to the community, the environment is suffering as a result in

some cases. Brune and Sanders (2008) highlight that the deterioration of natural resources in Placencia and

surrounding areas are in part owed to the recently intense development of infrastructure, which rarely has

social or environmental benefits. Most developments are based around the establishment of large hotels

with little interest in community development or environmental protection. Additionally, some community

residents are dealing with pre-existing social and economic disadvantages, in terms of access to education,

employment and capital assets (land and housing have become much more expensive since the expansion

of tourism in the community). The unemployment rate in Stann Creek is fairly high (18% higher than the

national average for the same year) and women comprise a larger segment of the unemployed group

(Brune & Sanders, 2008; Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). These disadvantaged groups, as well as persons

working in tourism are some of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

The CARIBSAVE Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment methodology employed

participatory tools to determine the context of these communities’ exposure to hazards and a livelihoods

framework to assess their adaptive capacity. All data were disaggregated by gender and the three main

means of data collection were: (i) a community vulnerability mapping exercise and discussion which were

the main activities in a participatory workshop; (ii) 3 focus groups (2 single-sex; and 1 for those in tourism-

related livelihoods); and (iii) household surveys to determine access to five livelihood assets (financial,

physical, natural, social and human). Livelihood strategies (combinations of assets) were evaluated to

determine the adaptive capacity of households and consequently the entire community. Even though

observations were specific to some parts within the study area, overall findings (assessments of

vulnerability and adaptive capacity) are assumed to be representative for the entire community.

Leadership and development in the community

Decisions on how the community is run and maintained are made by The Village Council, which falls under

the direction of Central Government. Where conflicts of interest may arise between the Council and

Government, Government’s decision remains final. The Council is elected and made up of roughly equal

numbers of men and women.

For residents, the cost of living in Placencia is perceived to be higher than in other regions of Belize.

Education is also considered to be “too expensive” and the education system is failing to adequately

prepare children for professional environments according to residents in Placencia.

Most upper-level management positions are held by non-locals who hire unskilled labour from outside of

the community to fill low-paying jobs. Education, qualifications and skill are very important if residents,

especially women, are to engage in a secondary or tertiary sector livelihood successfully.

Natural resources and community livelihoods

Placencia is surrounded by a number of natural resources, but most important of these are coastal and

marine resources, including the sea, beaches and marine life; which support important livelihood activities

in tourism and fishing. Mangroves are also important for fisheries, serving as nurseries for juvenile fish and

lobsters. Freshwater is sourced from aquifers and outlying areas have water towers. There is a piped water

supply for residents and businesses. However, water may be rationed during certain hours if availability is

limited.

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Tourism is the community lifeline and any negative impacts on the industry would have ripple effects

throughout the community. Tourism related jobs mainly revolve around tour guiding and tour operator

enterprises and popular activities include manatee watching, whale shark watching, fly-fishing, sailing,

SCUBA diving and snorkelling. Tour guide and tour operator positions are mainly filled by men. Other areas

of work include low-paid, low-skilled positions such as table waiting, ancillary work and cooks at

restaurants/hotels as well as in home based businesses. These positions are mostly occupied by women.

Craft vending is also another tourism based activity, although the market also include locals.

Before tourism became the main activity in Placencia, the community was regarded as a fishing village.

Fishing is an important subsistence and livelihood activity, although there are fewer residents involved than

before. Most fishers are male, but there are some nearby areas (e.g. Riversdale) where there are more

female fishers. There is a local Fishing Co-operative with over 100 registered members (although only a

small percentage of the group are active members). There are plans to begin sea-weed processing in

Placencia, which would provide more employment opportunities for work in the community, especially for

women. Aside from tourism and fishing, community residents are also employed in the public and private

sector, working in areas such as education and office administration.

Despite the benefits of development, the community suggests that increasing technology has reduced

resource conservation. Previously, rainwater harvesting was a common practice and energy and water

conservation initiatives were employed because the resources were scare. However, with the introduction

of a piped water supply, easier access to electricity and electrical appliances, the community is now less

mindful of wastage. Livestock were also raised in the village previously, but this is now very rare, because of

limited space for these activities following continuous development. Crop cultivation is also uncommon as

space is limited and the soil is unsuitable for growth, resulting in heavy reliance on supermarkets and

groceries.

Community knowledge of climate change and observed changes to the natural environment

The term ‘climate change’ is not foreign in Placencia. The community in general is becoming more aware of

climate change and environmental issues through the media and television programmes such as National

Geographic, as well as recent work done in Placencia by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the Belize

Tourism Board. Some residents also work with environmental awareness and protection groups. Most

residents therefore consider their knowledge of climate change to be average or above average and several

observations have been made of changing weather and climate patterns, as well as changes to the natural

environment.

Some changes include more extreme high and low ambient temperatures, especially uncommonly low

temperatures (i.e. below 50°F); and the apparent merging of seasons. Extremely high sea surface

temperatures are known to have caused the 2005 mass coral bleaching event in the Caribbean and the

lagoon is also much warmer than before. Residents also reported an increase in the incidence of ‘freak

storms’, or localised tropical storm-type conditions. There has also been an increase in the severity of direct

and indirect hurricane impacts over the past few years. In particular, the southern end of peninsula seems

to be more susceptible to storm surge impacts and there are reports of more intense flooding in the area.

There are also concerns that changes in tidal patterns (higher than normal tides) and SLR are causing salt

water intrusion into groundwater aquifers on both sides of the lagoon.

Fish stocks have decreased significantly, to the detriment of fishermen and dive operators. Previously

abundant marine species are either scarce or non-existent. For example, sea horses were once abundant in

Placencia’s coastal waters but are now rarely sighted. Additionally, manatees, stingrays and starfish are not

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seen as frequently. However, new species of shark are increasingly sighted. More butterflies were also

observed this year (2011), believed to be as a result of colder weather.

While climate change is blamed in part for these trends, human development activities are blamed for

some of the observed changes in wildlife distribution. Overfishing and lack of enforcement of fisheries

regulations was cited as a problem. Increased sightings of crocodiles and racoons in urban areas are likely

because of disturbances to their natural habitats. Currently, there is no plan to address the increase in

crocodiles or other wildlife which are being displaced from their habitats. Development activities are also

blamed for some of the beach erosion trends that have been observed over recent years. There are

concerns about a solid waste dump at the northern end of the peninsula, as it is likely that seepage from

this dump can contaminate groundwater resources. Mangroves are cleared along lagoon to make room for

development although there is some replanting and regulating of mangrove use.

Impacts of weather and climate on community livelihoods and development

Tourism livelihoods are highly dependent on stable weather, calm seas, clear waters and healthy stocks of

marine species. Artisanal fishers who catch finfish as well as conch and lobster also depend on similar fair

weather conditions. With the occurrence of extreme weather, livelihood activities are interrupted and

families that depend on income made from these activities suffer as a result. At the household level, both

men and women are vulnerable to the same physical impacts. From the livelihood perspective, men are

vulnerable owing to greater numbers employed in tourism and fisheries. However, more women occupy

low-paying positions, which make it difficult for them to cope with and recover from a crisis.

Hurricanes are the most destructive weather impacts on the community. Hurricane Iris in 2001 was one of

the most severe systems to affect the country. Iris was a Category 4 system as it passed to the south of

Placencia, devastating the southern portion of the peninsula. Up to 95% of homes were significantly

damaged and extensive repairs were required. The local primary school was closed for a month and

telecommunications, water and electricity supplies were interrupted for months. The natural environment

was also negatively impacted, with high mortality amongst conch, fish and coral reefs. Businesses and

residences are located throughout the peninsula, but are mainly concentrated at the lower end, which is

more susceptible to storm damage.

Placencia has also experienced flooding resulting from heavy, continuous rainfall. Flooding events are

mostly short-lived, because the sandy substrate allows water to infiltrate through the ground quickly.

However, there is only one road in and out of Placencia and for the duration of any flood, there is no access

to and from the community. Newer housing developments with more impermeable foundations are also

believed to be exacerbating flood events. However, whereas these houses, mainly middle-income

households, are slightly raised above the ground, pre-existing housing structures are at ground level (some

occupied by the poorest residents in the community) and are more exposed to flooding impacts.

Previous torrential rainfall events filled fishing and tour boats with water and caused some of them to sink.

Engines had to be repaired or replaced, which a very costly exercise for artisanal fishers. Currently, there is

no shelter facility for small vessels during inclement weather. Heavy rains also increase the volume and

velocity of river flow, which flushes sediment and solid waste into the nearshore. This affects coral reefs

and particularly large debris (e.g. tree trunks) can damage small boats near the river mouth.

Local reefs, which are still recovering from the increasingly severe bleaching events within the last two

decades, remain threatened by increased storm events, natural diseases and fishing pressure. The good

health of reef systems is an important component of the tourism product and supports local fisheries. If

these reef systems are not allowed to recover, there will be serious consequences for these livelihoods.

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There is a coral restoration project in the Laughing Bird Caye Marine Reserve which was implemented in

2006. The project had been successful thus far in re-growing reef-building coral, but has experienced set

backs from storm damage when rough seas break up new coral growth.

Temperature variability has implications for human health and comfort. With warmer days, the use of air-

conditioning units has become more popular and energy consumption is increasing as a result. Conversely,

extreme low temperatures are having detrimental impacts on agriculture, outside of the community but

within the District (a large percentage of the agriculture labour force are concentrated in Stann Creek and

some reside in Placencia; see Halcrow Group Limited, 2010). Warmer temperatures accelerate the life cycle

of mosquitoes, which causes them to breed faster and in larger numbers.

While not a result of climate change, earthquakes and other non-climate related issues can deepen the

community’s overall vulnerability to any economic or natural shock. The earthquake which occurred in

2009 caused significant damage to the community on the peninsula, weakening the structural integrity of

buildings and causing damage to property.

Coping strategies and disaster management in the community

With the constant threat and impact of hurricanes and flooding, community residents have adopted various

coping strategies and both men and women respond in similar ways to extreme weather, although few

appear to be gender-specific. Residents suggest that the sandy substrate makes it difficult to build

hurricane-proof structures. However, In the event of a hurricane, residents gather and store necessary

emergency supplies, food and important documents; and protect the house structure however possible. In

households with both able bodied men and women present, women take on more domestic preparation

tasks, whereas men attend to more physically-demanding tasks (affixing shutters, securing roofs). In

households with a single head (male or female) all responsibilities tend to fall on their shoulders.

At the community level, there are shelters provided by the Government in Independence and north-west

regions, which residents in Placencia can evacuate to in the event of a hurricane or tropical storm. It is also

known that there is a plan in place to evacuate Placencia by road and/or open seas if the need arises, which

fits into a larger National Emergency Plan. However, it is suggested that the plan is not widely adhered to.

In the aftermath of any event, if the community is affected significantly, residents come together in efforts

to restore the community to pre-event levels.

Water storage was previously done to cope with dry spells. However, since water is now readily available

and pumped into the homes, drought concerns have decreased. Likewise, flood waters that result from

heavy rains are not of much concern to most residents. However, heavy rains have proven disastrous for

fishermen before. Although boats are not hauled out of the water, fishers have adopted the practice of

removing the stern from the water (one of the heaviest parts of the boat) to protect against the likelihood

of sinking in heavy rainfall.

Several national and international agencies are implementing projects to protect and enhance the natural

environment and also to make the community more resilient to climate impacts. Some of these initiatives

are outlined in Table 4.8.3:

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Table 4.8.3: Local resilience building initiatives for the natural and built environment

AGENCY ACTIVITY

World Wildlife Fund (WWF) - Belize

Mangrove reforestation, marine reserve protection and management, public consultations and awareness forums.

Southern Environmental Association (SEA)

Marine reserve management plan and operations, reef restoration and nourishment, health assessments of reefs and fish stocks, consultations with fishers on alternative livelihoods.

Belize Central Building Authority

Development and enforcement of building regulations (stronger houses/buildings). Regulations may not be climate change specific, but look at structural resilience to hurricanes.

Belize Tourism Board Development of the Tourism Master Plan, funded by the IDB, with disaster management components. Climate change is not explicated mentioned, but implied. Emergency procedures and disaster response primarily focused on hurricanes.

The Government of Belize Supplied communal water containers from which persons in the community could collect water for the household.

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5. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY PROFILE FOR BELIZE

Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to evolve in order to accommodate climate changes or to

expand the range of vulnerability to which it can cope (Nicholls et al., 2007). Many small island and low-

lying coastal developing states have low adaptive capacity and adaptation costs are high relative to GDP

(Mimura et al., 2007). Overall the adaptive capacity is low due to the physical size of nations, limited access

to capital and technology, shortage of human resource skills and limited access to resources for

construction (IPCC, 2001). Low adaptive capacity, amongst other things, enhances vulnerability and

reduces resilience to climate change. While even a high adaptive capacity may not translate into effective

adaptation if there is no commitment to sustained action (Luers and Moser, 2006). In addition, Mimura et

al. (2007) suggest that very little work has been done on adaptive capacity of small island and low-lying

coastal developing states; therefore this project aims to improve data and knowledge on both vulnerability

and adaptive capacity in the Caribbean to improve each country’s capacity to respond to climate change.

Information on the following factors was gathered, where possible to reflect adaptive capacity for each

socio-economic sector:

Resource availability (financial, human, knowledge, technical)

Institutional and governance networks and competence

Political leadership and commitment

Social capital and equity

Information technologies and communication systems

Health of environment

The information is arranged by sector, under the headings Policy, Management and Technology in order to

facilitate comparisons across sectors and help decision makers identify areas for potential collaboration

and synergy. Some of these synergies have been included in practical Recommendations and Strategies for

Action which is the following section of this report.

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5.1.1. Policy

The policy history relevant to water resources is quite complex in Belize. This stems from the lack of a water

management programme and the lack of cohesiveness among various policies. There have been several

internationally funded projects that have brought forth a large quantity of information suitable for

development planning. However, this information is often not put to use and recommendations are often

not implemented (Green, 2000).

Several attempts have been made to draft water policies in Belize. The National Integrated Water Resource

Management Policy authored by BEST (Belize Enterprise for Sustainable Technology) (2008) goes through a

history of several previous attempts. These include drafts by Harrison in 1994, Cardona in 2005 and the

Hydromet office at the NMS which conducted national consultations during the period from 2006-2007.

Both Cardona and the Hydromet did not develop policy documents on their own, rather made changes and

recommendations to the original proposal by Harrison (BEST, 2008). The most recent document that has

been drafted is the National Integrated Water Resource Management Policy (NIWRM) (BEST, 2008). This

policy is fairly recent and takes into account impacts on water as a result of climate change. It has been

cited that this policy will be used to guide the “final actions of adoption and preparation of legislation” in

order to manage the nation’s water resources (BEST, 2008: pg. 6).

There are several acts that define provisions depending on whether rural water is supplied, or whether it is

supplied under BWS. BWS provides water and sewage services made by provisions under the Water

Industry Act and the local water boards supply water in rural areas under provisions from the Village

Councils Act (BEST, 2009). As discussed in the Vulnerability Section for Water Quality and Availability, BWS

has the exclusive contract and responsibility to provide urban water and sewage services, as well as similar

services in several rural areas. Town Councils also have a certain responsibility for water quality, such as

standing water and vector control, under the Public Health Act (BEST, 2009). It has been noted that this

responsibility held by the Town Councils is now outdated, since this was only relevant when drafting the

Public Health Act which has not been revised since BWS took over (BEST, 2009).

The GOB is working to adopt a Responsible Tourism Policy presented to the Ministry of Tourism in March of

2010 (PCSD, 2011). This policy would be key in protecting the natural resources of Belize when these are at

risk from tourism activities or development. In the draft document, the mission states:

“The GOB shall support and engage in responsible tourism as a preferred approach to the

management of Belize as a tourism destination in order that the integrity of Belize’s natural

resources and biodiversity be sustained [...] and that visitors to Belize act in an appropriate manner

that respect the natural resources and cultural heritage of the country.” (APAMO and MT, 2010)

This draft has several key points regarding water management issues. Some of the points are focused on

the safe keeping of local communities, in order that future tourist development should not impede on the

provision of basic services, such as water, to these communities (APAMO and MT, 2010). Other areas are

the safe keeping of the environment, which would be done by measuring the water use, indicating the

sources used and treating sewage water accordingly, in order to decrease overall consumption (APAMO

and MT, 2010).

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The approved budget for water (as described under provisions for utilities) in the GOB annual report for the

fiscal year 2009/2010 was BZ $3,000,000, based on the actual expenditures from 2007/2008 which were

calculated at BZ $3,012,099 (Government of Belize, 2009). There are several budget constraints that can be

identified. Belize is considered a consumer and developing country and as such does not generate large

amounts of surplus revenue that could be channelled into sectors in need. The alleviation of poverty is also

a major concern of the GOB and it is believed that it is the main cause of several problems such as land

degradation and drought (Green, 2000). Improvements in this will thus bring improvements to other

sectors (Green, 2000).

Also of importance to note is that water resources have not always received the funding that they need,

since Belize was always considered to have abundant supplies (BEST, 2008). Increases in population,

agricultural demand, industry and tourism have all put a considerable stress on available resources and on

its quality (BEST, 2008).

5.1.2. Management

There are several institutions in charge of dealing with climate change issues and water resources. The

overarching ministry is the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment under which the

Department of Environment (DOE) and the National Meteorological Services (NMS) fall (BEST, 2008).

Likewise, different aspects of water resources management fall under several government agencies, such

as the DOE, PUC and NMS. There are also several NGO’s that are active, such as Water Missions in Belize

(WMB) that provide support to local communities (BEST, 2008; WMB, 2011). As discussed in Section 4.1.1,

Belize Water Services (BWS) is the company that is responsible for the provision of water to all urban areas.

Local water boards are responsible for those rural areas not covered by BWS (BEST 2009).

According to the National Adaptation Strategy for the water sector “Belize is a young nation and suffers

from limited institutional capacity and limited governance, financial and administrative resources” (BEST,

2009). The water sector is underfunded and not adequately coordinated which results in overlapping

government agencies and a lack of clear resource management (BEST, 2009). The fractured nature of the

legislation results in several government agencies and departments being legally responsible for the

management of water resources in their own sectors. This uncoordinated and overlapping management

increases the severity of unattended issues such as those of groundwater exploration and exploitation

(BEST, 2009).

Belize is a signatory to the UNCCD, which includes certain elements of drought, though at the time of the

publication of its first report in 2000, it was not clear if there was a body that was responsible for drought

management (Green, 2000). Within the first report, a national coordinating body was to be created, but it is

not clear if this has been undertaken (Green, 2000). NEMO is the organisation in charge of preserving life

and property in the event of an emergency and NMS is in charge of publishing drought forecasts (NMS,

2011).

In the UNCCD report (2000), it was discussed how change in various sectors has been slow and difficult to

achieve (Green, 2000). It was also discussed that the human resource base is limited and thus the same

group of professionals and technicians is often involved repeatedly in various management initiatives

(Green, 2000).

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5.1.3. Technology

Resource monitoring in Belize has been said to be uncoordinated at times (BEST, 2009). However, the NMS

which is responsible for collecting hydrological data and climate data for Belize has been doing so since its

creation in 1966 (NMS, 2011). This is an ongoing task and part of the mission of the NMS (NMS, 2011).

There are approximately 30 hydrological stations located on various water courses in Belize, which also

report data to NMS.

Belize has an aging water infrastructure and BWS has several ongoing projects to renew and maintain this

(BWS 2009). The creation of a Leak Detection Unit was crucial to savings both BWS and more importantly

for customers who were saved from paying for lost water (BWS 2009). Several large projects were

undertaken in the 2010 fiscal year. These include completion of the Belize City water main refurbishment,

completion of Phase 1 of the Southside poverty alleviation project, installation of water mains and a

distribution network to the village of Caye Caulker, completion of water main and sewer main services in

San Pedro and water network expansions nationwide (BWS, 2009 – Annual Report). Several other large

technical and design projects are in place for the coming year and these are ongoing as BWS continues to

strive to provide adequate water supply to Belizeans.

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5.2.1. Policy

As evident from current energy documents in many countries both in the Caribbean and outside, tourism is

not central in the consideration of wider strategies to reduce energy use (Brewster, 2005; Haraksingh,

2001). Yet, as this document has shown for Belize, its share in energy use and emissions is considerable and

likely to grow in the future, leading to growing vulnerabilities in a business as usual scenario. At the same

time, the sector holds great potential for energy reductions and should thus be one of the focus points of

policy considerations to de-carbonize economies.

It is vital for governments to engage in tourism climate policy, because tourism is largely a private sector

activity with close relationships with the public sector at supranational, national, regional and local

government levels and through politics, there is thus an outreach to all tourism actors. Furthermore,

governments are involved in creating infrastructure such as airports, roads or railways and they also

stimulate tourism development, as exemplified by marketing campaigns. The choices and preferences of

governments thus create the preconditions for tourism development and low-carbon economies. Finally,

there is growing consensus that climate policy has a key role to play in the transformation of tourism

towards sustainability, not least because technological innovation and behavioural change will demand

strong regulatory environments.

As described earlier and pointed out by (OECD, 2010), emissions of greenhouse gases essentially represent

a market failure where there is little incentive to innovate. It has been shown that the fairest and most

efficient way of reducing emissions is to consider increased fuel prices, i.e. to introduce a tax on fuel or

emissions. Carbon taxes may be feasible for accommodation, car transport and other situations where

tourism activities cause environmental problems. Taxation is generally more acceptable if taxes are

earmarked for a specific use, which in this case could for instance include incentives for the greening of

tourism businesses. Tax burdens would then be cost-neutral for tourism, but help to speed up the greening

of the sector. If communicated properly, businesses as well as tourists will accept such instruments and the

economic effect can be considerable. The Maldives charge, for instance, US $10 per bed night spent in

hotels, resorts, guesthouses and yachts, which accounts for 60% of Government revenue (McAlleret al.,

2005). The policy recommendations put forward by the Public Utilities Commission (2003b) and discussed

in the Vulnerability section for Energy Supply and Distribution make little reference to specific initiatives

that will target the tourism sector.

Money collected in various ways could be re-invested in sustainable energy development. Haraksingh

(2001), for instance, outlines that there is a huge potential to use solar energy. Both economical and non-

economical technical solutions to reduce the energy-dependency of countries in the Caribbean could thus

be implemented based on regulation, market-based approaches and incentives, as well as through

financing derived from voluntary and regulatory carbon markets. Policy intervention is however needed to

initiate these processes. Overall, Haraksingh (2001: 654; see also Headley, 1998) suggests that:

The Caribbean region is a virtual powerhouse of solar and other renewable sources of

energy waiting to be exploited. It has the advantage of not having winters when hot water

demands can increase from summer by approximately 70% in cold climates. Solar water

heaters for the tourism industry and domestic and commercial usage have perhaps the

greatest potential. There is a general commitment to the development of RE, but matters

have not gone very far beyond this. The movement towards greater implementation of RE

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technologies is gaining strength, but there is a large gap between policy goals and actual

achievement. Clearly, much work still needs to be done. Government fiscal incentives,

greater infrastructure for policy development as well as joint venture partnerships are

needed in the Caribbean region for a smooth transition.

Lorde et al., (2010) suggest that Government policy should encourage efficiency and innovation in

electricity production and distribution, noting that in particular the residential sector should be addressed

in reducing electricity use. This is also true for Belize, where the ground work for future renewable energy

and energy efficiency initiatives has been done through the Public Utilities Commission’s (2003a, b)

recommendations for a National Energy Policy. While many of these recommendations are in line with

those made in this report, it should be noted, however, that suggestions to reduce either fossil fuel or

electricity prices are in stark contrast to this report’s recommendations: clearly, reducing energy prices

(including fuel for transport) will increase consumption and lead to growing emissions of greenhouse gases

if the increased demand is met from a fossil fuel source. Rather, price signals to support low-carbon

consumption should be given, for instance by granting price reductions to electric cars, photovoltaic

electricity production or solar heaters.

5.2.2. Management

Any action on reducing energy use and emissions of greenhouse gases has to begin with a review of

emission intensities, to ensure that the action taken will lead to significant reductions. From a systems

perspective, hundreds of minor actions will not yield anywhere near as much as one change in the major

energy consuming sub-sectors. Aviation is thus, as outlined earlier, a key sector to focus on, followed by

hotels, as these are comparably energy-intense, while car-travel is not as relevant. Cruise ships will often be

the most relevant energy sub-sector, but are more difficult to address.

Tourism management is primarily concerned with revenue management, as the ultimate goal of any

economic sector is to generate profits and jobs. A general critique of tourism management in this regard

must be that it is too occupied with revenue, rather than profits as well as multiplier effects in the

economy. This is an important distinction because profits have been declining in many tourism sub-sectors,

such as aviation, where revenues have been increasing through continuously growing tourist volumes,

while profits have stagnated. This is equally relevant for average length of stay, which is falling worldwide:

to maintain bed-night numbers, destinations have consequently had to permanently increase tourist

numbers. For instance, in the case of Saint Lucia, average length of stay has fallen 2 full days (from 10.6 to

8.6) in the period 2001 to 2010 (with ups and downs in between; (Research and Policy Unit, 2011)). Average

hotel occupancy in Saint Lucia has also been falling from 71.4% in 1997 to 54.4% in 2010. To obtain similar

figures for Belize should be a key priority and working pro-actively on these issues is consequently a highly

relevant management task. The tourism statistics available from the Belize Tourism Board show that

although the number of rooms has increased in recent years, there has been no consistent improvement in

occupancy rates (BTB, 2009).

In an attempt to look at both profits and emissions of greenhouse gases, a number of concepts have been

developed. One of the most important overall objectives can be defined as ‘reduce the average energy

use/emissions per tourist’. Table 5.2.1 illustrates the situation for a number of other countries in terms of

weighted average emissions per tourist (air travel only), as well as emissions per tourist for the main

market. The table can serve as a benchmark for comparison.

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Table 5.2.1: Average weighted emissions per tourist by country and main market, 2004

Country Av weighted emissions per tourist, air travel (return flight; kg CO2)

*

International tourist arrivals (2005)

Total emissions air travel (1,000 tonne CO2)

Emissions per tourist, main market (return flight; kg CO2) and % share of total arrivals

*

Anguilla 750 62 084 47 672 (USA; 67%)

Bonaire 1302 62 550 81 803 (USA; 41%)

Comoros 1754 17 603**

31 1929 (France; 54%)

Cuba 1344 2 319 334 3 117 556 (Canada; 26%)

Jamaica 635 1 478 663 939 635 (USA; 72%)

Madagascar 1829 277 422 507 2 159 (France; 52%)

Saint Lucia 1076 317 939 342 811 (USA; 35%)

Samoa 658 101 807 67 824 (New Zealand; 36%)

Seychelles 1873 128 654 241 1935 (France; 21%)

Sri Lanka 1327 549 309 729 606 (India; 21%)

Notes:* Calculation of emissions is based on the main national markets only, using a main airport to main airport approach (in the USA: New York; Canada: Toronto; Australia: Brisbane); **Figures for 2004.

(Source: Gössling et al., 2008)

A strategic approach to reduce per tourist emissions would now focus on further analysis of markets. To

this end, an indicator is the arrival-to-emission ratio, based on a comparison of the percentage of arrivals

from one market to the emissions caused by this market (Table 5.2.2). For instance, tourists from the USA

account for 67% of arrivals in Anguilla, but cause only 55% of overall emissions. The resultant ratio is 0.82

(55% divided by 67%). The lower the ratio, the better this market is for the destination, with ratios of <1

indicating that the market is causing lower emissions per tourist than the average tourist (and vice versa).

Arrivals from source markets with a ratio of <1 should thus be increased in comparison with the overall

composition of the market in order to decrease emissions, while arrivals from markets with a ratio of >1

should ideally decline. In the case of Anguilla, the replacement of a tourist with a ratio of >1 in favour of

one tourist from the USA (ratio: 0.8) would thus, from a GHG emissions point of view, be beneficial.

However, where arrivals from one market dominate, it may be relevant to discuss whether the destination

becomes more vulnerable by increasing its dependence on this market.

Table 5.2.2: Arrivals to emissions ratios

Anguilla Bonaire Jamaica Saint Lucia

Primary market Emissions ratio

USA

0.8

USA

0.5

USA

0.8

USA

0.9

Secondary market Emissions ratio

UK

2.5

Netherlands

1.6 -

UK

2.0

Third market Emissions ratio

- - - Barbados

0.1

Fourth market Emissions ratio

- - - Canada

1.0

(Source: Gössling et al. 2008)

To integrate emissions and revenue, energy intensities need to be linked to profits. An indicator in this

regard can be eco-efficiencies, i.e. the amount of emissions caused by each visitor to generate one unit of

revenue. This kind of analysis is generally not as yet possible for Caribbean countries due to the lack of data

on tourist expenditure by country and tourist type (e.g. families, singles, wealthy-healthy-older-people,

visiting friends and relatives, etc.), but Figure 5.2.1 illustrates this for the case of Amsterdam/Netherlands

(Gössling et al., 2005). By assigning eco-efficiencies, it is possible to identify the markets that generate a

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high yield for the destination, while only causing marginal emissions. For instance, in the case of

Amsterdam, a German tourist causes emissions of 0.16 kg CO2 per € of revenue, while a visitor from

Australia would emit 3.18 kg CO2 to create the same revenue.

Figure 5.2.1: Eco-efficiencies of different source markets, Amsterdam (Source: Gössling et al. 2005)

These indicators can serve as a basis for restructuring markets, possibly the most important single measure

to reduce the energy dependence of the tourism system. However, further analysis is required to

distinguish revenue/profit ratios, leakage factors/multipliers (to identify the tourist most beneficial to the

regional/national economy) and to integrate market changes into an elasticity analysis (to focus on stable,

price-inelastic markets) (see also Becken, 2008; Schiff and Becken, 2010). No study that integrates these

factors has been carried out so far, but further developing such strategic tools for revenue and energy

management would appear useful for the Caribbean.

As described in the introduction, the Belize Tourist Board (BTB) has intensified its marketing to focus on

Europe and the emerging markets of Mexico and Central America (CBB, 2010; BTB, 2010). While these

efforts are laudable, they will also increase vulnerabilities in the energy sector, as long-haul flights increase

average emissions per tourist. A strong focus on Mexico and Central America, as well as alternative

marketing strategies, also with a focus on average length of stay, should thus be envisaged.

In Barbados, a survey carried out in February 2011 to better understand tourist perspectives on spending,

length of stay, climate change and mitigation, yielded some interesting results. In this regard, 71% of

respondents stated that they would have liked to stay longer and 61% stated that they had spent less

money than planned. It is likely that similar results could be found throughout the region and further

research needs to be carried out to identify how this potential can be realized: longer stays increase the

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share of money retained in the national economy, primarily in accommodation, while higher expenditure

also contributes to increasing national tourism revenue, notably with a lower leakage factor, as spending

for air travel will usually entail smaller profit shares and higher leakage. The Barbados study also revealed

that 73% of respondents are willing to drive less by car, 70% stated willingness to use smaller cars and 81%

are positive about electric cars. With regard to A/C use, one of the major factors in energy use in hotels,

tourists also support resource savings: 71% stated to be willing to use fans rather than air conditioning, 90%

agree that switching off air conditioning when leaving the room is acceptable and 65% agree on using air

conditioning at a 1°C higher temperature than the set room temperature actually used during the stay.

Further options to reduce energy use and emissions exist for businesses focusing on staff training. For

instance, Hilton Worldwide saved energy and water costs in the order of US $16 million in the period 2005 -

2008, primarily through behavioural change of employees as a result of a training in resource efficiency.

These measures have to be discussed on the business level and are mostly relevant to accommodation and

activities managers. As about 15% of a typical Caribbean hotel’s operating cost may be attributable to

energy usage (Pentelow and Scott, 2011), management-related reductions in energy use of 20% would

correspond to savings of 3% on the overall economic baseline. This should represent a significant incentive

to engage in energy management. For further details on energy management see Gössling (2010). Surveys

of tourism businesses in Belize showed that approximately 30% would support the promotion of energy

efficiency (Richardson, 2007).

5.2.3. Technology

The potential for saving energy through technological innovation has been documented for a growing

number of case studies. For instance, luxury resort chain Evason Phuket & Six Senses Spa, Thailand, reports

payback times of between 6 months and ten years for measures saving hundreds of thousands of Euros per

year. Examples of the economics of resource-savings from the Caribbean include five case studies in

Jamaica (Meade and Pringle, 2001). The results from this study are summarised in Table 5.2.3.

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Table 5.2.3: Jamaican case studies for resource savings

Property Sandals Negril Couples Ocho Rios

Swept Away Negril Cabins Sea Splash

Number of rooms

215 172 134 80 15

Initial investment

$68,000 $50,000 ($20,000 in equipment, $30,000 in consulting fees)

$44,000 $34,670 $12,259

Water saved (m3) 45,000 31,000 95,000 11,400 7,600

Electricity saved (MWh)

444 174 436 145 154

Fuel saved (l) 100,000 (diesel) 172,000 (LPG) 325,000 (diesel)

Financial savings $261,000 $134,000 $294,000 $46,000 over 2.75 years. $5,000 on laundry chemicals since August 1998

$46,000 since July 1998

Return on investment

190% over 2 years

200% over 16 months

675% over 19 months

48% 151% over 2.5 years

Payback period 10 months 6 months 4 months

(Source: Meade and Pringle, 2001)

It is beyond the scope of this report to list all technical measures to reduce energy use and readers are

referred to (Gössling, 2010) for further guidance: case studies provided in this book indicate technology

based energy savings potentials of up to 90% for accommodation. Often, it is also economically feasible to

replace conventional, fossil-fuel based energy systems with renewable ones, with payback times of 3-7

years (e.g. Dalton et al., 2009). An example study in the Caribbean is provided by Bishop and Amaratunga

(2008). This study provides evidence on the economic suitability of technological innovation to generate

renewable energy in Barbados. Bishop and Amaratunga (2008) propose a 10MW wind energy scheme

based on micro wind turbines of both horizontal and vertical axis configurations and at costs as low as BDS

$0.19 per kWh. The scheme would also lead to savings of 6,000-23,000 t CO2 and avoided fuel costs of BDS

$1.5–5.3 million. The authors highlight that small wind turbines can be competitive with conventional wind

farms. The Richardson (2007) surveys of tourism businesses in Belize showed that only 22% would support

the development of alternative energy sources (Richardson, 2007).

As outlined, managers will usually be interested in any investment that has pay-back times as short as 5-7

years, while longer times are not favourable. While this would support investments into any technology

with payback times of up to 7 years, it also opens up opportunities to use the Clean Development

Mechanism (CDM) as an instrument to finance emission reductions. The CDM is one of the flexible

instruments of the Kyoto Protocol with two objectives:

to assist parties not included in Annex I in achieving sustainable development and in contributing to

the ultimate objective of the convention of cost-efficient emission reductions;

to assist parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their quantified emission

limitation and reduction commitments.

The CDM is the most important framework for the supply of carbon credits from emission reduction

projects, which are approved, validated and exchanged by the UNFCCC secretariat. CDM projects can be

implemented in all non-Annex I countries and are certified by operational entities (OE) designated by UN

COP (IPCC, 2007b). The CDM thus generates credits, typically from electricity generation from biomass,

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renewable energy projects, or capture of CH4, often a problem in the context of waste management, which

can be sold in the regulatory or the voluntary carbon markets. As such, it is a novel instrument to

restructure countries towards low-carbon economies.

Discussions are already on-going in the Caribbean on how to use the CDM in restructuring energy systems.

It is worth noting, however, that emission reductions achieved through the CDM do not apply to national

economies, rather they apply to the purchaser’s economy. While the CDM is thus an instrument to achieve

technological innovation, it is not an instrument to achieve carbon neutral status. A potential problem is

that in mid-2011, it is unclear whether there will be a post-Kyoto protocol to continue the CDM past 2012.

Investigating the possible links that can be made with regional and international programmes, including

CDM, that would benefit Belize are highlighted as an area for action in the policy recommendations

discussed previously (Public Utilities Commission, 2003b).

Further funds can be derived through voluntary payments by tourists. For instance, Dalton et al. (2008)

found that 49% of Australian tourists were willing to pay extra for renewable energy systems, out of which

92% were willing to pay a premium corresponding to 1–5% above their usual costs. In another study,

Gössling and Schumacher (2010) found that 38.5% of a sample of international tourists in the Seychelles

expressed willingness to pay for carbon-neutrality of their accommodation, out of which 48% stated they

would be willing to pay a premium of at least €5 per night. While these values are not representative, they

nevertheless indicate that there is considerable potential to involve tourists emotionally and financially in

strategies to implement renewable energy schemes. Such options should be further explored.

5.2.4. Summary

Belize is vulnerable to rising oil prices and global climate policy. However, there are various tools that can

be employed to reduce energy use in the country, possibly in the order of an estimated 20% within two

years, though attention has to be paid to increasing tourist arrival numbers, which can outweigh

achievements in efficiency gains. Adaptation should focus on policy, management and technology.

Policy, including regulation, taxation and incentives, is important to increase pressure on

stakeholders to engage with energy management. This is an area that is generally seen as less

relevant and efforts to engage significant stakeholder numbers will demand strong policy

environments, as initiated through planning for a National Energy Policy.

Vast options exist to reduce energy demand through carbon management. In particular, this

includes a rethinking of markets based on their eco-efficiency, this can potentially lead to increasing

turnover and declining energy costs, while also bringing greater attention to the diversification of

markets. Carbon management also means to address average length of stay and measures to

stimulate spending: evidence indicates that there is considerable scope to increase both.

Maintaining bed night numbers without addressing losses in average length of stay does otherwise,

meaning to be stuck in a logic of volume growth, which is likely to prove a problem when the cost

of transport increases and when serious climate policy is introduced.

The introduction of low-carbon technology can both reduce energy demands (energy-efficiencies)

and the use of fossil fuels, which can be replaced by renewable energies. Often, restructuring

existing energy systems can be cost-effective and even lead to savings.

Finally, the Clean Development Mechanism and voluntary payments for carbon offsetting may be

used as means to reduce energy use and to increase the share of renewable energy in national

energy mixes.

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5.3.1. Policy

In August 2010, the Government of Belize published an updated policy statement which is to ensure food

security and sovereignty through sustainable production, supply, accessibility and use of safe, high quality,

nutritious, diversified and culturally acceptable foods for all Belizeans. The strategy comprises six basic

programs: information and communication; diversified food production, processing, marketing, storage and

credit; material and child care, school feeding and nutrition for the elderly and the indigent; creation of

employment and income generation at local levels; food safety; and analysis and reform of national policies

for food and nutrition security (FAO, 2011).

The National Food and Agricultural Policy of 2009 identified major objectives, such as greater efficiency in

resource allocation, minimizing sharp fluctuations in market prices and reducing investment risks and

uncertainty, promoting specific commodities for which there are identified and growing markets, achieving

a higher level of self-sufficiency in food production and increasing the country's competitiveness in regional

and extra-regional markets. The policy statements of the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (2009)

highlight the critical importance of agricultural exports, farmer organisation, technological innovations,

extension and cross-cutting issues of gender, youth and disaster risk management, for the sustainable

growth with equity of agriculture.

5.3.2. Technology

Modern technology in Belizean agriculture is largely dependent on interventions and support from the

Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (Merrill, 2010). This is evident in the aquaculture/shrimp operations in

the country which benefitted from Government extension services and a small scale agriculture project. At

the end of 2009, there were 65 farmers engaged in small scale tilapia farming in the six districts with 14

acres in production units containing 213,782 red and grey tilapia. Production in 2009 was estimated to be

at 110,000 pounds.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries is also conducting continuous research to provide technical

assistance to farmers in the production of winter vegetables, like carrots, celery, broccoli and beets. As a

result of the Ministry’s Extension Programme vegetable production increased from BZ $15.6 m in 2008 to

$19.7 m in 2009, an increase of 26%. Other elements of the extension programme include training for

farmers in greenhouse technology, access to two commercial size vegetable seedling nurseries and an

onion drying demonstration unit.

5.3.3. Farmers’ adaptation - Initiatives and actions

Holder (2009) on conducting research on indigenous farming systems in Belize found that for the four

agricultural communities studied (Santa Martha, Concepcion, Calla Creek and El Progresso), all of the rural

villages exhibited weakness in the core characteristics essential for successful farming in pursuit of

enhanced climate resilience and sustainable livelihoods. However, each community displayed one or more

standard practices for successful small farming systems in Belize, namely common vision, teamwork, mixed

farming and natural resource management. The first two define the social character of the residents and

the community, while the latter two addresses the technical capabilities. All had some form of mixed

farming as a coping strategy, but integration was lacking. Natural resource management was weak to non-

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existent and there was tendency towards the unsustainable and heavy use of fertilizers and chemicals in

crop production; primarily as a response to advice from agrochemical businesses, but also because

information of the dangers to the environment and its users, along with credible alternatives were lacking.

When suitable long-fallowed forest land for food production was becoming more limited and yields were

declining, the indigenous response in certain areas was to experiment with new ways of intensifying

production on the dry-season riverbank fields. Using seeds obtained from Maya farmers in other

communities, they tried planting different mulch and cover crops during the growing season and extending

the area of permanent cultivation. One crop in particular, the velvet bean (Mucuna spp.), proved extremely

useful, crowding out weeds, managing a number of pests and improving soil fertility without the use of

chemical fertilizers (Belize Development Trust, 2001).

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5.4. Human Health

5.4.1. Policy

Some of the main legislation and policies for the Belize Health Sector include the Public Health Act 1943,

National Policy on Health and Family Life Education, and the National Poverty Elimination Strategy and

Action Plan 2007 – 2011. The draft General Health Act seeks to update and revise the legislative approach

of the health sector. Other recent plans which can contribute to increasing the resilience to climate change

include the National Food and Nutrition Policy which is a cross ministry initiative, the (Avian) Influenza

Pandemic Preparedness and Response Operation plan (2007) and the Policy on Adoption of National Water

Quality Standards (UNDAF, 2010). With respect to food security the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry

of Health devised a Plan for the Development of Human Resources in Nutrition. There was also the 2005-

2010 Plan of Action for Food and Nutrition Security coming out of the Food and Nutrition Policy (PAHO,

2008).

The National Poverty Elimination Strategy and Action Plan (NPESAP), 2009-2013 outlined details of “the

main activities, targets, expected outcomes, identify funding sources, monitoring indicators and key

implementing agencies for each of the strategies” (Government of Belize, 2010a). Addressing poverty is

important because it protects one of the most vulnerable groups to natural disasters. The plan is multi-

sectoral and is based on a number of policy pillars. For example those relevant to health are shown in Table

5.4.1.

Table 5.4.1: NPESAP Strategic Thrusts and Strategies related to the health sector of Belize

Policy Pillar Strategy

3. Investment for Human

Capital Develop

- Improve coverage, efficiency and equity in Health

4. Infrastructure for Growth

and Sustainability

- Improve access of rural communities and under-resourced urban

pockets to potable water and to adequate sanitation facilities

- Support access to affordable housing by low income families

- Improve education and health facilities through expanded and

upgraded infrastructure

- Continue expansion of public utilities and information technology to

rural sectors

5. Strategic Support for Equity

and Social Development

- Develop and implement community based plans for the specific

needs of the poorest rural and urban areas

(Source: Government of Belize, 2010a)

The Health Sector underwent reform between 2001 and 2008 through the Health Sector Reform Project

(Government of Belize, 2010a). The project aimed to improve the organisation and regulatory structure of

the central and regional health sector with special focus on cost effectiveness. It also sought to provide

better coverage and quality of service in both the public and private sector through rearranging public

health facilities, procuring services deficient in the public health sector from the private health sector,

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increasing accessibility particularly in rural areas and increasing staff training among a host of other

initiatives (Government of Belize, 2010a).

Table 5.4.2: Total expenditure on health as a % of GDP from 1995 – 2009 in Belize

Year ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09

% of GDP 3.9 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.5 5.1

*GGEH as

% of GGE 10.5 8.2 8.9 7.7 6.1 6.5 7.4 7.4 8.9 8.0 9.3 9.4 10.9 10.8 12.2

* General Government Expenditure on Health (GGEH) as a % of General Government Expenditure (GGE)

(Source: WHO, 2011a)

Table 5.4.2 shows the total expenditure on health as a percentage of GPD between 1995 and 2009. In 2009,

total expenditure on health accounted for 5.1% of GDP which amounted to 12.2% of general government

expenditure on health. It is estimated that 60% of the health budget pays salaries and another 20% towards

pharmaceuticals. Therefore what is left is often insufficient to conduct maintenance or start developmental

work in the health sector which relies heavily on foreign loans and grants (Government of Belize, 2010a).

One of the negative aspects of Belize’s economy is the inability of the Government to make capital

investments and to direct more resources towards development of the social sector including the health

sector (Government of Belize, 2010a). However, it should also be noted that due to high numbers of

vacancies actual expenditure may be less than allocated. For instance in 2007/2008 21% of the Central

region’s and 30% of the Southern region’s budgets were not spent mainly due to this problem (Government

of Belize, 2010a). A significant proportion of expenditure that could be spent in the public sector is often

channelled in the private sector through preferential use of private health care services. For instance “in

2004, private health care expenditure was estimated to be around 1.5% of GDP, or two thirds the level of

public expenditure; much of which would have been spent by higher income groups on private health care

services” (Government of Belize, 2010a).

One of the negative aspects of Belize’s economy is the inability of the Government to make capital

investments and to direct more resources towards development of the social sector which includes the

health sector (Government of Belize, 2010a). This is partly due to the limited financial resources at the

disposal of the Government, which depends heavily on external sources for funding its project. The success

of the National Poverty Elimination Plan requires such funding (Government of Belize, 2010a). These effects

are even more evident because the global economic climate has affected the economy of Belize, resulting

in decreases in revenues (Government of Belize, 2009).

5.4.2. Management

Belize has a wide range of agencies that have a role in the provision of health services and health

protection in the country. The Ministry of Health has responsibility over “national health planning, public

health protection, regulation, research, quality and standards, international and regional collaboration and

monitoring of the overall performance of the national health system” (PAHO, 2008). Within the Ministry of

Health, the Department of Public Health, the Central Medical Laboratory and other laboratories and the

Public Health Bureau are responsible for regulation of the quality of potable water (BEST, 2009). The Belize

Health Information System is responsible for generating health statistics. Within the Ministry of Human

Development and Social Transformation there are three main departments - Human Services Department,

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Women’s Department and the Community Rehabilitation Department which have roles in social

development. The Belize Agricultural Health Authority is important in food security and food safety

planning. Finally, the Health Education and Community Participation Bureau “is the health education and

promotion arm of the Ministry of Health with the responsibility to plan, coordinate and implement health

promotion programmes, projects, interventions and activities throughout the country” (Government of

Belize, 2010b).

The national health structure consists of four regions, Northern, Central, Western and Southern (PAHO,

2008). There are seven hospitals in the country; each of the six districts has a hospital, but Cayo has two

hospitals (Government of Belize, 2010b). Three of these hospitals are regional hospitals which cater for

both primary and secondary health care needs. Another three are community hospitals which provide

mainly primary health care services. The Karl Heusner Memorial Hospital is the general hospital of Belize

District and the main referral or tertiary care institution (PAHO, 2008). There are also four private hospitals

and a number of other private facilities (Government of Belize, 2010b). Table 5.4.3 summarizes the health

facilities in Belize in 2007. Despite the fact that health services are decentralized in rural areas, health

facilities are further apart and offer fewer services than general hospitals (Government of Belize, 2010a).

This is particularly relevant in the south of the country where water supply, hygiene and nutrition

conditions are generally lower than national standard (Government of Belize, 2010a).

Table 5.4.3: Health facilities in Belize in 2007

Region Districts Hospitals

Polyclinic Health

Centres

Health

Posts No. Beds

Northern Orange Walk, Corozal 2 81 0 11 15

Western Cayo 2 66 0 4 6

Central Belize City and rural district* 1 125 4 12 16

South Toledo, Stann Creek 2 82 3 15 19

Country 7 354 7 42 56

*28 rural villages are served by mobile clinics visiting monthly.

(Source: Government of Belize, 2010a)

Deficiencies in the health services include insufficient staff, inadequate outreach to rural areas for the

collection of basic statistics and samples due to transportation limitations, insufficient pharmaceuticals and

problems with buildings and equipment (Government of Belize, 2010a). With respect to staff shortages,

recruitment from abroad is often utilised. Such staff a most often placed in very rural areas where staff

shortages are most severe. It is important to note that “shortages are compounded by the active

recruitment of national health professionals, particularly nurses, by developed countries” (PAHO, 2008).

There were 11 physicians per 10,000 of the population between 2000 and 2009 (WHO, 2011b). The number

of beds per 1,000 person of the population is 1.2, which for comparison is lower than other Caribbean

territories such as Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica at 2.7 and 2 respectively (Government of Belize,

2010a).

Cost of health care is generally free, but small contributions are required for a number of services. Some

areas that require a fee for service include “(i) prescribed drugs have to be purchased from private

pharmacies (owing to non-availability at health centres or hospitals; (ii) drugs are purchased through self-

medication; and (iii) health care is sought privately” (Government of Belize, 2011). The Belize 2009 Country

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Poverty Assessment found that both health and medical costs could be reduced for “the poor, the elderly,

the disabled and the chronically sick” (Government of Belize, 2010a).

With a poverty rate of 25.5% and indigence at 15.8% the Government of Belize has the challenge to

develop the social capital in poor communities and among these groups in society. Aside from the National

Poverty Elimination Strategy and Action Plan mentioned above, the Belize Social Investment Fund has also

developed social services in the country (Government of Belize, 2010a). The poverty rate varies from

district to district in Belize. The Social Investment Fund which targeted 350 communities was involved in

the construction and installation of infrastructural projects in areas most in need. Through this fund, most

of the health centres that exist in rural areas were constructed. This fund has been very important to health

and sanitation in Belize because “around half the communities in the country have benefited from one or

more improved roads, water supply, electrification and new or extended primary schools, while around a

quarter have had new or upgraded health facilities” (Government of Belize, 2010a). It is interesting to note

that 20% of householders are foreign born and experience slightly higher rates of poverty than the national

average (PAHO 2008).

With respect to communicable diseases, the Ministry of Health regards their services to control of

communicable diseases as “functioning well and require[ing] continued upgrading and incremental

improvement, rather than major new initiatives” (Government of Belize, 2010a). The Second National

Communication to the UNFCCC has recommended increased utilization of integrated pest and pathogen

management. It also suggests varying the treatment applied to pests and diseases to counter resistance

and improve quarantine capabilities and monitoring programmes (Government of Belize, 2011).

A considerable amount of attention is given to vector borne diseases. There is a Vector Control Programme

which targets malaria, dengue fever and chagas disease. Some of the initiatives undertaken through this

programme include “active and passive case detection; presumptive and radical case treatment with a 14-

day treatment scheme (five of which are supervised); adult mosquito control via indoor house spraying and

spatial ULV spraying; chemical larvae control with Abate; and health education in schools” (Government of

Belize, 2011). Vector control also targets specific communities and there is a special surveillance system to

control the spread of Aedes aegypti vector which is responsible for the transmission of dengue. Malaria’s

surveillance is however more consistent than dengue, with cases not being fully reported from the private

sector for the latter (Government of Belize, 2011). For malaria, malaria nets were introduced on 2009 free

of charge. Their use is meant to compliment the use of indoor residual spraying. Additionally all patients

receive diagnostic tests free of charge (WHO, 2010a).

The majority (94%) of Belizeans are satisfied with their level of health care; a statistic which is reflective of

all income brackets in the society (Government of Belize, 2011). A Living Standards Measurement Survey

(LSMS) conducted in 2009 and involving over 2000 households in Belize found that the poor do not exhibit

signs of lower levels of health care nor do they have difficulty accessing health care services (Government

of Belize, 2011). For persons who did not seek health care, the main reasons were “cost, absence /distance

of services, poor quality, not enough time” (Government of Belize, 2011).

In 2007, Belize developed an integrated Food-borne Disease surveillance manual as part of their

communicable diseases programme (CAREC, 2007). This involved a sectoral approach which included the

health, agriculture and tourism sectors. With respect to food security, the Government of Belize in its

2010/2011 Budget, stated that it will allocate more funding to small scale farmers to increase food security

at the district level (Government of Belize, 2010c). Also in the budget there was an allocation of one million

dollars to the Food Assistance Programme which targets the elderly and marginalized women and children

(Government of Belize, 2010c). In the Toledo District, a programme was developed to address

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“malnutrition, micronutrient deficiencies and other consequences of under-nutrition” that have been

reported. Some of the initiatives undertaken were “nutrition education, organic vegetable production, food

preparation and fruit and vegetable drying and preservation” (PAHO, 2008).

The 2009 Country Poverty Assessment for Belize made a number of recommendations that have some

relevance to strengthening the overall resilience within the Belizean society and specifically within the

health care system. These included “improving access to health services in rural areas… continuing to

improve access to potable water and sanitation services… improving the maintenance of infrastructure,

schools and health centres; providing more secondary and feeder roads required to get produce to

markets; improving garbage disposal [and] providing more social services” (Government of Belize, 2010a).

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Adaptation requires “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic

stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC, 2007b). The

adaptive capacity of ecosystems then is the property of a system to adjust its characteristics or behaviour,

in order to expand its coping range under existing climate variability, or future climate conditions (Brooks &

Adger, 2004). Despite global action to reduce greenhouse gases, climate change impacts on biodiversity are

unavoidable due to climate inertia. Natural ecosystems have long demonstrated the ability to adapt to

changes in their physical environment. However, the rate at which climate change is projected to occur

may exceed the rate at which ecosystems can adapt. Furthermore, natural environments, which are already

stressed by human activities, have compromised ability to cope with and to adapt to climate change. This

adaptive capacity assessment thus considers the country’s ability to conserve its biodiversity through

managing sustainable resource use and the capacity to implement strategies to protect its natural

environment.

Many small Caribbean states generally have low adaptive capacity for some of the same reasons that they

tend to be highly vulnerable to climate change, i.e. small physical size, limited access to capital and

technology, shortage of human and financial resources (Mimura et al., 2007). The ability of ecosystems to

adjust to projected climatic changes depends not only on their inherent resilience but also on the ability of

resource users to make required adjustments. By addressing shortcomings in the above indicators adaptive

capacity can be built.

Six principles for adaptation have been identified by Natural England, the UK Government’s advisor on the

natural environment. Many elements of these principles are neither new nor climate change specific and so

may be applied within the Caribbean context. The principles are as follows (not in order of priority):

Table 5.5.1: Principles for Climate Change Adaptation

BIODIVERSITY: SIX PRINCIPLES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

Conserve existing biodiversity

Reduce sources of harm not linked to climate

Develop ecologically resilient and varied landscapes

Establish ecological networks through habitat protection, restoration and creation

Make sound decisions based on analysis

Integrate adaptation and mitigation measures into conservation management, planning and practice

Source: (Hopkins et al., 2007)

5.5.1. Policy

The capacity of countries to implement climate change adaptation strategies will be enhanced by polices

that take advantage of linkages between socio-economic and environmental sectors. Up until the 1970s,

Belize, formerly British Honduras, had relatively relaxed environmental laws that went largely unenforced.

However, with the formation of the Belize Audubon Society in 1969, public awareness of the value of

conservation grew rapidly. After gaining independence in 1981, the Government passed both the National

Park System Act and the Wildlife Protection Act, designating an array of protected areas of different status

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and providing a codification for the protection of the immense biodiversity of life contained in the parks.

These Acts were further revised in 2000.

Governmental departments such as the Department of the Environment and the Forests Department, both

under the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment, have been designated to research and

regulate the issues and laws concerning the country's protected areas. Soon following was the

Environmental Protection Act of 1992, which outlined the statutory powers of the Department of the

Environment.

Belize is party to a number of legally binding multilateral environmental agreements, many of which deal

with proper management of the country's natural resources. These include, most notably,

Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES)

Convention Concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage

Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)

Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD)

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Since its ratification of the Ramsar Convention in 1998, Belize has had two sites designated as wetlands of

international importance: Crooked Tree Wildlife Sanctuary, in 1998 and Sarstoon-Temash National Park, in

2005. To ensure proper financial backing for their extensive network of protected areas, the Protected

Areas Conservation Trust (PACT) was created in 1996. This trust is responsible for all fundraising and the

allocation of funds to protected areas – see Section 5.5.2 below.

Belize has launched a major effort to completely rewrite its fisheries laws (which date back to 1948 with

one small revision in 1989), which will be called the Aquatic Living Resources Act rather than the Fisheries

Act. The new legislation will ensure that all marine and inland aquatic resources are covered by the Act. The

purpose of the new law is long-term sustainable use of Belize‘s aquatic resources and it will adopt the

precautionary principle. Also, the new law states that Government can‘t use the absence of adequate

scientific information as a reason to postpone or fail to take conservation and management measures. In

addition, the new law will provide a broad framework for specific regulations, but the regulations

themselves will not be in the law. For example, gill netting is not specifically mentioned in the new law.

Instead, Fisheries will have the authority to pass regulations that might limit or even ban gill netting. Other

major areas addressed by the new law will include marine reserves, cooperation with other countries in

managing aquatic resources, international agreements and treaties, scientific research and monitoring and

the control and enforcement of the law. Passage of the new Fisheries Act is expected by the end of 2011.

5.5.2. Management

Successful implementation of international and national policies depends on related institutional

arrangement. A nation’s adaptive capacity is greater if the roles and responsibilities for implementation of

adaptation strategies are well delineated by central Governments and are clearly understood at national,

regional and local levels (Burton, 1996). Overall oversight of conservation and management of protected

areas in Belize is the responsibility of the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment.

While coastal development is an important part of economic growth, unchecked clearing of mangroves in

recent years has led to serious concerns about the loss of services this habitat provides. In 2008, the newly

elected Government enacted a temporary moratorium on mangrove clearing inside MPAs. The re-

instatement of the Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute in 2009 was another important step

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in managing Belize’s coastal environment and suggests that Belize may be moving towards sustainable

development in its coastal areas.

Belize has fairly many fisheries regulations, including size limits and closed seasons for the most heavily

exploited species and no-take zones in some MPAs that serve as replenishment areas – these are due to be

update in the new Aquatic Living Resources Act. However, there is inadequate financial support to ensure

effective enforcement of these regulations. Regulations to protect top predators as well as critically

important herbivores (parrotfishes, tangs and surgeonfish) are also needed, as over-fishing threatens the

delicate ecological balance on the reef. Equipment bans on spear fishing in MPAs and on shrimp trawling,

would also help maintain the health of Belize’s fisheries.

Protected areas

Strengthening protected area networks is one way of adopting an ecosystem-based approach to

adaptation, i.e. one that integrates biodiversity, ecosystem services and people into an overall strategy to

build resilience and reduce exposure to the adverse impacts of climate change (Colls, Ash, & Ikkala, 2009).

The country's system of private reserves is coordinated under the Belize Association of Private Protected

Areas. The Belize Audubon Society (BAS) was founded in 1969 and oversees a total of nine protected areas,

including 4 natural monuments, 2 national parks, 2 wildlife sanctuaries and 1 nature reserve. Belize is

fortunate to have many active and successful environmental NGOs, many of which are responsible for the

management of protected areas. These include WWF, TIDE, Oceana, TNC, BAS and others.

The Protected Areas Conservation Trust (PACT), founded in 1995, provides funds for the development of

conservation and the promotion of environmentally sound management of Belize's natural and cultural

resources. It is primarily financed by the collection of a conservation levy included in the country's airport

departure tax. PACT provides funds for supporting conservation and promoting environmentally sound

management of Belize's natural and cultural resources to foster sustainable development.

Marine conservation efforts and monitoring programs in Belize have grown significantly over the past two

decades. The number of designated Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has grown to 18, covering

approximately 250,000 ha of marine area (McField et al., 2008). MPAs are a useful tool for addressing a

number of threats to coral reefs, particularly those related to tourism, development and over-exploitation

of commercial species. Unfortunately, some of Belize’s MPAs remain paper parks and the majority lack

sufficient funding and staff to effectively enforce fishing regulations and monitor use of the reef. Greater

and more reliable funding is needed for the system to function as it was intended. One of the most

successful marine parks in Belize – and the Caribbean - is the Hol Chan Marine Reserve in Ambergris Caye.

This MPA has been successful in part because it has created its own private fund, which receives revenue

from user fees and donations. The reserve attracts over 50,000 visitors a year and generates close to US

$500,000 per year in revenues from fees, allowing the park manager and his 14 staff to manage the park

effectively with the support of the fishermen and local community of San Pedro.

Approximately 115,000 visitors to MPAs in Belize in 2007 spent an estimated US $17 million on

accommodation, recreation, food and other expenses on days that they visited a reserve. Reef-related

tourism and fisheries at just one park - Glover’s Reef Marine Reserve - contributed an estimated US $4.9 to

$7.3 million per year to the national economy. The Fisheries Department is allocated roughly US $100,000

per year for each of the MPAs that it manages. Management levels at most of Belize’s marine parks fall well

below those needed to keep reefs healthy and attractive to visitors over the long-term. The economic and

environmental benefits provided by these parks may not prove sustainable without greater investment in

management (Cooper, Burke, & Bood, 2009).

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Belize’s efforts to manage its biodiversity and fisheries suffer primarily from a lack of resources, which

limits the Government’s capacity to enforce environmental and fisheries laws outside of protected areas.

This is particularly worrisome in relation to the management of reef fisheries along the Mesoamerican

barrier reef, which in recent years has seen a rapid decline in coral cover and large reef fish.

5.5.3. Technology

A high degree of access to and training with, relevant technologies at various levels (i.e. from local to

national) and across sectors, will play a significant role in biodiversity adaptation to climate change (Burton,

1996). Belize has a strong history of environmental research and monitoring, particularly compared to

many other countries in the region. For instance, assessing changes in Belize's forest and mangrove cover

over a 30-year period was possible because of Belize's participation in the Regional Visualization &

Monitoring System (SERVIR, in Spanish) a regional observatory jointly implemented by CATHALAC, the

Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), the International Centre for

Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA),

the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and other partners.

The newly reinstated Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute (CZMAI) is gradually building

capacity for monitoring and research, though additional resources and technologies are badly needed.

Belize also benefits from the presence of several regional agencies that operate under official CARICOM

mandates. These include the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) and the Caribbean

Regional Fisheries Mechanism (CRFM), which provide the country with additional human and technical

capacity to examine key issues relevant to natural resource management and climate change. Belize also

benefits from an active NGO community with considerable scientific expertise and international networks

of scientists and volunteers.

Despite these assets, policymakers and regulatory agencies still require up-to-date biological and socio-

economic information on the status of the countries biodiversity and key ecosystems, as well as robust

projections on the potential impacts of existing and future threats to their health. Further investment in

monitoring and research to inform good management should be a priority.

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and Settlements

Based on the above evaluation, actions need to be taken to minimize infrastructure losses in vulnerable

areas of Belize. The current and projected vulnerabilities of the tourism sector to SLR, including coastal

inundation and increased beach erosion, will result in economic losses for Belize and its people.

Adaptations to minimize vulnerabilities in Belize will require revisions to development plans and

investment decisions. These considerations must be based on the best available information regarding the

specific coastal infrastructure and ecosystem resources along the coast, in addition to the resulting

economic and non-market impacts.

Given the historical damage caused by event driven coastal erosion, as well as slow-onset SLR, the need to

design and implement better strategies for mitigating their impacts is becoming apparent. There are a

number of solutions that can be used to tackle beach erosion. Unfortunately, most of the common

solutions, such as beach replenishment and groynes, are only temporary and their cost makes them

unaffordable (Daniel, 2001). There are three main types of adaptation policies that can be implemented to

reduce the vulnerability of the tourism sector in Belize to SLR and improve the adaptive capacity of the

country: (1) Hard engineering defences and (2) soft engineering defences, which both aim to protect

existing infrastructure and the land on which the infrastructure is built, as well as (3) retreat policies, which

aim to establish setbacks and thereby move people and/or infrastructure away from risk. A summary of

examples for each of the three types of adaptation polices are provided in Table 5.6.1, along with a

summary of select advantages and disadvantages of each. Adaption options discussed in this report should

be implemented in the framework of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) and all decisions need to

take into account the broad range of stakeholders involved in decision-making in the coastal zone.

Adaptations should benefit coastlines in light of both climate and non-climate stresses and adaptations will

be promoted as a process towards ICZM rather than an endpoint (Linham & Nicholls, 2010).

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Table 5.6.1: Summary of Adaptation Policies to reduce the vulnerability of Belize to SLR and SLR induced beach erosion

PROTECTION TYPE ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES

Hard Engineering Defences

Dikes, levees, embankments

1, 2

- Prevents inundation - Aesthetically unpleasing - Can be breeched if improperly designed - Can create vulnerabilities in other locations (e.g.,

further erosion downward from the dikes) - Expensive - Requires ongoing maintenance

Groynes3, 4

- Prevents erosion

- Aesthetically unpleasing - Can increase erosion in other locations (e.g., stops

longshore drift and traps sand) - Expensive

Revetments3, 4

- Prevents inundation - Less unwanted erosion than

seawalls or levees

- Aesthetically unpleasing - Expensive - Requires ongoing maintenance and/or

replacement (temporary)

Seawalls3, 5

- Prevents inundation - Good for densely developed

areas that cannot retreat

- Aesthetically unpleasing - Can be breeched if improperly designed - Can create vulnerabilities in other locations (e.g.,

further erosion adjacent from seawalls, reflect waves causing turbulence and undercutting)

- Expensive - Requires ongoing maintenance - Scouring at the base of the seawall can cause

beach loss in front of the wall

Structure Redesign (e.g., elevate buildings, enforce foundations)

6, 7

- Less environmentally damaging compared to large scale defences - Can be completed independently of centralized management plans

- May be technologically unfeasible and expensive for larger buildings and resorts

- Only protects the individual structure (not surrounding infrastructures such as roads)

Soft Engineering Defences

Beach nourishment and replanting of coastal vegetation

2, 3, 8

- Enhances slope stability - Reduces erosion - Preserves natural beach

aesthetics - Provides protection for

structures behind beach - Improves biodiversity and

ecological health

- Can ruin visitor experience while nourishment is occurring (e.g., restrict beach access)

- Can lead to conflict between resorts - Differential grain size causing differing rates of

erosion (e.g., new sand vs. natural sand) - Difficult to maintain (e.g., nourishment needs to be

repeated/replenished, unsuccessful plantings) - Will not work on open coastlines (i.e., requires

locations where vegetation already exists)

Replant, restructure and reshape sand dunes

3, 8

- Enhances slope stability - Reduces erosion

- Conflict among resort managers (e.g, ‘sand wars’) - Temporary (waves will continually move sand)

Retreat Policies

Relocate settlements and relevant infrastructure

2, 9, 10, 11, 12

- Guaranteed to reduce SLR vulnerability - Less environmental damage to coastline if no development takes place - Retains aesthetic value

- Economic costs (e.g., relocation, compensation) - Social concerns (e.g., property rights, land use, loss

of heritage, displacement) - Coordination of implementation is challenging

(e.g., timing of relocation is problematic) - Concerns with abandoned buildings

1(Silvester & Hsu, 1993)

2(Nicholls & Mimura, 1998)

3(French, 2001)

4(El Raey, Dewidar, & El Hattab, 1999)

5(Krauss &

McDougal, 1996) 6(Boateng, 2008)

7(Lasco, Cruz, Pulhin, & Pulhin, 2006)

8(Hamm, Capobiancob, Dettec, Lechugad,

Spanhoffe, & Stivef, 2002) 9

(Fankhauser, 1995)10

(Orlove, 2005) 11

(Patel, 2006) 12

(Barnett J. , 2005)

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5.6.1. Technology – Hard engineering

Hard engineering structures are manmade, such as dikes, levees, revetments and sea walls, which are used

to protect the land and related infrastructure from the sea. This is done to ensure that existing land uses,

such as tourism, continue to operate despite changes in the surface level of the sea. The capital investment

needed for engineered protection is expensive and not ideal in sparsely populated areas. For densely

populated cities such as Belize City and Dangriga, a seawall may be worth the investment when the costs of

the protected lands are taken into account. To protect Belize City, 40.1 km of new levees would need to be

constructed, costing nearly US $200 million, with annual maintenance of US $19 million. The cost for

building a seawall of 40 km in length would be US $684 million, with annual maintenance of US $17 million.

Dangriga would need a smaller seawall of 6.4 km, which would cost US $109 million for the initial

construction and US $2.7 million in annual maintenance costs. Levees for Dangriga would cost $31 million

to build and US $3.2 million in annual maintenance (Simpson et al., 2009).

Unfortunately, the effectiveness of this approach may not withstand the test of time nor withstand against

extreme events. Protective infrastructure not only requires expensive maintenance which can have long-

term implications for sustainability, but adaptations that are successful in one location may create further

vulnerabilities in other locations(IPCC, 2007b). For example, sea walls can be an effective form of flood

protection from SLR, but scouring at the base of the seawall can cause beach loss, a crucial tourism asset, at

the front of the wall (Krauss & McDougal, 1996). Moreover, hard engineering solutions are of particular

concern for the tourism sector because even if the structures do not cause beach loss, they are not

aesthetically pleasing, diminishing visitor experience. It is important for tourists that sight lines to the beach

not only be clear, but that access to the beach is direct and convenient (i.e. to not have to walk over or

around a long protective barrier). Smaller scale hard engineering adaptations offer an alternative solution

to large scale protection. Options include redesigning structures to elevate buildings and strengthen

foundations to minimize the impact of flooding caused by SLR.

5.6.2. Technology – Soft engineering

Protection can be implemented through the use of soft engineering methods which require naturally

formed materials to control and redirect erosion processes. For example, beaches, wetlands and dunes

have natural buffering capacity which can help reduce the adverse impacts of climate change (IPCC, 2007b).

Through beach nourishment and wetland renewal programmes, the natural resilience of these areas

against SLR impacts can be enhanced. Moreover, these adaptation approaches can simultaneously allow for

natural coastal features to migrate inland, thereby minimizing the environmental impacts that can occur

with hard engineering protection. Replenishing, restoring, replanting and reshaping sand dunes can also

improve the protection of a coastal area, as well as maintain and in some cases improve, the aesthetic

value of the site. Although less expensive and less environmentally damaging, soft engineering protection

is only temporary. For example, the ongoing maintenance required to upkeep sand dunes, such as sand

replenishment schemes, will create the periodic presence of sand moving equipment, subsequently

hindering visitor experience (e.g. eye and noise pollution, limit beach access). Conflicts can also arise

between resort managers resulting in ‘sand wars’, whereby sand taken to build up the beach at one given

resort may lead other resorts to ‘steal’ sand and place it on their own property.

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5.6.3. Policy

Managed retreat is an adaptation measure that can be implemented to protect people and new

developments from SLR. Implementing setback policies and discouraging new developments in vulnerable

areas will allow for future losses to be reduced. Such an adaptation strategy raises important questions by

local stakeholders as to whether existing land uses, such as tourism, should remain or be relocated to

adjust to changing shorelines (e.g. inundation from SLR) (IPCC, 2007b). Adaptation through retreat can have

the benefit of saving on infrastructure defence costs (hard and soft engineering measures) while retaining

the aesthetic value of the coast, particularly in those areas that are uninhabited (i.e. little to no

infrastructure or populations along the coast). The availability of land to enable retreat is not always

possible, especially in highly developed areas where roads and infrastructures can impede setbacks or on

small islands where land resources are limited.

For many tourist destinations retreat is both difficult in terms of planning (and legally challenging) and

expensive to implement. Resorts and supporting tourism infrastructure are large capital investments that

cannot be easily uprooted to allow the sea to move inland. If the resorts cannot be moved, then the

alternative is to leave them damaged and eventually abandoned, degrading the aesthetics of the

destination coastline. It is important that the retreat policy be well organized, with plans that clearly outline

the land use changes and coordinate the retreat approach for all infrastructures within the affected areas.

Additional considerations of adaptation through retreat include loss of property, land, heritage and high

compensation costs that will likely be required for those business and home owners that will need to

relocate. Priority should be placed on transferring property rights to lesser developed land, allowing for

setback changes to be established in preparation for SLR (IPCC, 2007b).

The responsibility of managing the coastal areas of Belize is divided among numerous agencies, with

equally diverse legislation. Many non-governmental organisations participate as well. Such fragmentation

of management has created ad hoc decision making by various sectors and interests (Wells, n.d.). In 1999,

the Coastal Zone Management Act addressed this issue, providing institutional arrangements for CZM in

Belize through the establishment of the Coastal Zone Management Authority and its technical arm, the

Coastal Zone Management Institute.

The Act mandates the CZM Authority, an autonomous public statutory body, to address cross-sectoral

development of coastal resources. The CZM Institute undertakes research, monitoring, training and public

awareness activities of coastal resources and is responsible for the broad consultative and advisory role

with public and private sector agencies and of advising the Minister of polices relating to coastal

development of resource use. The Act also established an Advisory Council, which is appointed by the

Authority, comprising representation from the Government (e.g. Fisheries Administrator, Ports

Commissioner, and Chief Environmental Officer), private sector (e.g. Director of the Belize Tourism Board),

NGO community (e.g. conservation organisations) and academia (e.g. Director of the University of Belize

Marine Research Centre). The Council’s function is to advise the Institute on technical matters pertaining to

coastal issues and to facilitate coordination among agencies. Final decision making responsibility, however,

rests with other bodies of Government, not the CZM Authority, CZM Institute or the CZM Advisory Council.

CZM plans exist for all coastal areas in Belize, with the jurisdiction of the CZM Authority and Institute being

the area bounded by the shoreline up to the mean high water mark on its landward side and by the outer

limit of the territorial sea on its seaward side (CZMAI, 2000). The National Land Act requires that a 66 ft

wide strip of land should be left in its natural state, unless approval by the Minister is given otherwise. This

strip of land shall be reserved for the Government for public purposes, as stated in the 1886 Crown Lands

Act (CZMAI, 2010). The widespread clearance of riverine and coastal areas, in addition to construction

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activities close to the shoreline, suggests that this setback policy is being applied unevenly, or that

provisions for approval of construction are being defied by developers. The policy occasionally varies in

relation to the cayes, whereby the reserve can be reduced to a 20 ft wide strip due to the server limitations

on land availability (CZMAI, 2010).

In terms of policies that directly address issues of climate change and SLR, the Government of Belize has

begun to encourage all agencies that execute policies or provide services in sectors to explore and access

the opportunities being developed by the climate change negotiation process. In 2008, the Belize Climate

Change Adaptation Policy was established, mandating government agencies to prepare adaptation policy

options for those sectors that may be impacted by global climate change—including coastal zone and

tourism. The Climate Change adaptation Policy states that the CZM Authority should (1) undertake climate

change vulnerability studies of the coastal zone; (2) prepare adaptation plans for the coastal zone to

address impacts of climate change; (3) maintain the inventory of coastal zone resources; (4) include climate

change in its annual report on the state of the coastal zone; (5) provide a report to the National Climate

Change Committee and the Chief Meteorologist on its climate change activities (Government of Belize,

2008).

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Adaptive capacity can be measured through examination of policies and plans implemented for the

management of disasters, as well as the actions taken following a disaster. Being able to reduce the

impacts of natural disasters on a small nation is often difficult, especially when facing major hazard threats

on a regular basis. The post-disaster time period is a time when extra resources are needed to finance

imports of food, energy and inputs for the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. As a result, efforts to

build resilience or adaptive capacity gets put aside while immediate survival, shelter and health needs are

prioritised, along with the remedy of hazardous living conditions.

5.7.1. Management of natural hazards and disasters

The disaster management system can be thought of as a cycle where preparedness, mitigation5 and

adaptation activities (disaster prevention) are the focus prior to a disaster impact. Following an impact, the

management focus becomes response, recovery and reconstruction (disaster relief). These two parts of the

disaster management system work together and also impact the broader social, economic, ecological and

political system (see Figure 5.7.1).

Figure 5.7.1: Relationship of the Disaster Management System and Society

Caribbean disaster management and climate change

As a region, the Caribbean has made coordinated efforts to prepare for and respond to disasters. The

Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency, CDEMA, (previously the Caribbean Disaster

Emergency Response Agency, CDERA) was created in 1991. CDEMA plays a leadership role in disaster

response, mitigation and information transfer within the region, operating the Regional Coordination

Centre during major disaster impacts in any of their 18 Participating States, while also generating useful

data and reports on hazards and climate change. The primary mechanism through which CDEMA has

influenced national and regional risk reduction activities is the Enhanced CDM Strategy (CDEMA, 2010). The

primary purpose of CDM is to strengthen regional, national and community level capacity for mitigation,

5 In the disaster management literature, ‘Mitigation’ refers to strategies that seek to minimise loss and facilitate recovery from

disaster. This is contrary to the climate change definition of mitigation, which refers to the reduction of GHG emissions.

Socio-ecological

System

Disaster Relief

System

Disaster Prevention

System

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management and coordinated response to natural and technological hazards and the effects of climate

change (CDEMA, 2010) (emphasis added).

This regional disaster management framework is designed to inform national level disaster planning and

activities but also takes into consideration potential climate change impacts in its resilience building

protocols. The four Priority Outcomes of the CDM framework are:

1. Institutional capacity building at national and regional levels;

2. Enhanced knowledge management;

3. Mainstreaming of disaster risk management into national and sector plans; and

4. Building community resilience.

These outcomes have been further broken down into outputs that assist in the measurement of progress

towards the full implementation of CDM at the national and community level and within sectors (see Table

5.7.1). The CDM Governance Mechanism is comprised of the CDM Coordination and Harmonization Council

and six (6) Sector Sub-Committees. These sectors include – Education, Health, Civil Society, Agriculture,

Tourism and Finance. These six sectors have been prioritised in the Enhanced CDM Strategy as the focus

during the period from 2007 to 2012. CDEMA facilitates the coordination of these committees (CDEMA,

2010).

To address disaster management in the Caribbean tourism sector, CDEMA, with the support of the Inter-

American Development Bank (IDB) and in collaboration with the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO),

CARICOM Regional Organization for Standards and Quality and the University of the West Indies will be

implementing a Regional Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Project for Sustainable Tourism (The Regional

Public Good) over the period of January 2007 to June 2010. The project aims to reduce the Caribbean

tourism sector’s vulnerability to natural hazards through the development of a ‘Regional DRM Framework

for Tourism’. Under the Framework, a ‘Regional DRM Strategy and Plan of Action’ will be developed, with a

fundamental component being the development of standardised methodologies for hazard mapping,

vulnerability assessment and economic valuation for risk assessment for the tourism sector (CDERA, 2007;

CDERA, 2008).

Finally, the link between CDM and climate change cannot be ignored. Projections for the region suggest

that more extreme temperatures and more intense rainfall in certain seasons could lead to a greater

number of hydro-meteorological disasters. Many of the hazards facing Caribbean countries already pose

threats to lives and livelihoods and climate related events are regular occurrences. This has been

recognised with the mention of climate change in the CDM strategy. The CCCRA report will not only offer

improvements to the existing disaster management framework in the region, but will also offer pragmatic

strategies for action which will build resilience in the Caribbean to the predicted impacts from climate

change.

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Table 5.7.1: Enhanced Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme Framework 2007-2012

GOAL Regional Sustainable Development enhanced through Comprehensive Disaster Management

PURPOSE To strengthen regional, national and community level capacity for mitigation, management and coordinated

response to natural and technological hazards and the effects of climate change. OUTCOME 1: Enhanced institutional support for CDM Program implementation at national and regional levels

OUTCOME 2: An effective mechanism and programme for management of comprehensive disaster management knowledge has been established

OUTCOME 3: Disaster Risk Management has been mainstreamed at national levels and incorporated into key sectors of national economies (including tourism, health, agriculture and nutrition)

OUTCOME 4: Enhanced community resilience in CDERA states/ territories to mitigate and respond to the adverse effects of climate change and disasters

OUTPUTS 1.1 National Disaster Organizations are strengthened for supporting CDM implementation and a CDM program is developed for implementation at the national level 1.2 CDERA CU is strengthened and restructured for effectively supporting the adoption of CDM in member countries 1.3 Governments of participating states/ territories support CDM and have integrated CDM into national policies and strategies 1.4 Donor programming integrates CDM into related environmental, climate change and disaster management programming in the region. 1.5 Improved coordination at national and regional levels for disaster management 1.6 System for CDM monitoring, evaluation and reporting being built

OUTPUTS 2.1 Establishment of a Regional Disaster Risk Reduction Network to include a Disaster Risk Reduction Centre and other centres of excellence for knowledge acquisition sharing and management in the region 2.2 Infrastructure for fact-based policy and decision making is established /strengthened 2.3 Improved under-standing and local /community-based knowledge sharing on priority hazards 2.4 Existing educational and training materials for Comprehensive Disaster Management are standardized in the region. 2.5 A Strategy and curriculum for building a culture of safety is established in the region

OUTPUTS 3.1 CDM is recognized as the roadmap for building resilience and Decision-makers in the public and private sectors understand and take action on Disaster Risk Management 3.2 Disaster Risk Management capacity enhanced for lead sector agencies, National and regional insurance entities and financial institutions 3.3 Hazard information and Disaster Risk Management is integrated into sectoral policies, laws, development planning and operations and decision-making in tourism, health, agriculture and nutrition, planning and infrastructure 3.4 Prevention, Mitigation, Preparedness, Response, recovery and Rehabilitation Procedures developed and Implemented in tourism, health, agriculture and nutrition, planning and infrastructure

OUTPUTS 4.1 Preparedness, response and mitigation capacity (technical and managerial) is enhanced among public, private and civil sector entities for local level management and response 4.2 Improved coordination and collaboration between community disaster organisations and other research/data partners including climate change entities for undertaking comprehensive disaster management 4.3 Communities more aware and knowledgeable on disaster management and related procedures including safer building techniques 4.4 Standardized holistic and gender-sensitive community methodologies for natural and anthropogenic hazard identification and mapping, vulnerability and risk assessments and recovery and rehabilitation procedures developed and applied in selected communities. 4.5 Early Warning Systems for disaster risk reduction enhanced at the community and national levels

(Source: CDEMA, 2010)

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5.7.2. Management of disasters in Belize

Disaster management in Belize is led by the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO),

located in Belmopan. The NEMO is comprised of the Cabinet, with the Prime Minister as chairperson and

the Chief Executive Officers, who chair the 10 operational committees. Those operational committees

include:

Education, Communication and Warning

Medical and Relief Measures

Housing and Shelter

Search, Rescue and Initial Clearance

Collection Control and Distribution of Food and Material

Assessment and Evaluation of Damage

Foreign Assistance; Transport

Environment and Utilities

Further to these national level committees, there are “9 District Emergency Committees (chaired by the

senior Minister in each District) representing Belize, Corozal, Orange Walk, Cayo, Stann Creek, Toledo,

Belmopan, San Pedro and Caye Caulker” (NEMO, 2011). There are activities within each district geared at all

phases of the disaster management cycle from conducting preparedness work through public education

and training to participation in response activities.

This tiered system of disaster management with responsibilities spread to the districts and communities is

an effective method for improving the capacity of the country to response and prepare for disasters. The

relocation of the capital and Government offices was a wise move, particularly for NEMO activities. While

having some district and community level efforts is important, having a lead organisation that is able to

maintain function will permit optimal disaster and emergency response. To continue strengthening national

disaster management capacity, the Government of Belize and the UNDP are working on a project entitled

“Strengthening of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Response Capacity” (GFDRR, 2010). “In response

to the national need for holistic planning the project firstly proposes the collation, revision, updating and

possible consolidation of existing sectoral disaster management plans into a comprehensive National

Disaster Management Plan” (GFDRR, 2010).

Post-disaster Activities

In the Caribbean there is a Rapid Needs Assessment Team (RNAT), led by CDEMA, which is deployed to the

impacted state to conduct a Damage Assessment and Needs Analysis (DANA) (UNDP, 2011). This kind of

skilled assessment team is available to conduct a standard assessment procedure across many of the

CDEMA Participating States. However, the DANA process is only executed upon the request of the impacted

state. Therefore, the assessment information is not available following every disaster and as such, all

disaster offices should also have the capacity to execute a post-disaster assessment on their own. Under

the CDEMA system, coordinating activities across multiple countries builds response capacity by taking

advantage of the resources and personnel from neighbouring countries. This enhances response and

reconstruction efforts in Participating States. Nevertheless, the need to incorporate the principles of

‘building back better’ must also be a priority so that the post-disaster context becomes an opportunity for

building resilience and institutionalizing disaster risk reduction goals.

While there are major expenses associated with disasters, there are post-disaster funds available for

reconstruction and recovery. Recently Belize has experienced major losses due to hurricane impacts:

147

“Government expenditures associated with increased costs for emergency reconstruction

due to these events [hurricanes Keith and Iris] were approximately US $50 million, covering

three fiscal cycles. The Government of Belize has argued that these spending increases for

reconstruction led to large fiscal deficits and debt accumulations that in 2006 required a

restructuring operation for public debt” (GFDRR, 2010).

This expense and long term economic impact reinforces the importance of preparedness, mitigation and

reduction of risks. In addition, this can be viewed as a missed opportunity for vulnerability reduction. The

post-disaster context must be viewed as an opportunity to rebuild physical structures and socio-economic

systems with lower vulnerability and greater resilience. The ‘Building Back Better’ Propositions created

after the 2004 Tsunami in Asia offer guidance on how to do so. Some of those propositions have specific

relevance to this case in Belize:

Good recovery must leave communities safer by reducing risks and building resilience.

Good recovery planning and effective coordination depend on good information.

Governments, donors and aid agencies must recognize that families and communities drive their

own recovery.

Recovery must promote fairness and equity.

Governments must enhance preparedness for future disasters.

Local Governments must be empowered to manage recovery efforts and donors must devote

greater resources to strengthening Government recovery institutions, especially at the local level.

(Clinton, 2006, p. 3)

Some short term debt and fiscal deficits may be inevitable, but with the proper investment, the reduction

of risks and elimination of some unsafe conditions are achievable goals and should lead to lower economic

impacts in the future. To help achieve this,

An innovative system of Indicators of Risk and Risk Management is being developed for

Belize, financed by the Inter-American Development Bank as part of the CAPRA [Central

American Probabilistic Risk Assessment] project. These indicators ...cover the consequences

of major disaster impacts (Disaster Deficit index), local small-scale and frequent events

(Local disaster index), community’s vulnerability (Prevalent Vulnerability index) and risk

management (Risk Management index). The local disaster index will be developed from and

complement the data established by the DesInventar historical disaster losses record.

(GFDRR, 2010)

These types of assessments are much needed and complement one another. Capacity building efforts and

sourcing a reliable financing mechanism that will permit personnel to manage and keep record of the data

is an integral part of incorporating these indicator results into disaster planning and prevention activities.

Since many of the current projects are funded by donor Governments and agencies, Belize will therefore

have to seek out funding (whether through the national budget, or other donor projects) to continue the

important work being done in many areas from flood management and hazard planning, to capacity

building and risk assessment.

148

5.7.3. Technology

Technology in the field of disaster management can reduce vulnerabilities through structural protective

structures, by way of policies that control or guide development, or through public education that would

then change the behaviours that generate vulnerability.

Coastal Protection

In the Caribbean investments in structural protection are often used to protect coastlines. The use of

groynes, breakwaters and sea walls are popular methods to control coastal erosion processes and

safeguard development from damaging wave actions. Although these structures do provide some relief,

they generally offer only temporary benefits and sometimes also cause negative effects in other locations

along the coast. Disaster management practices have also found that structural protection is very expensive

and can sometimes worsen the impacts of a disaster when the size of the structure is incongruent with an

event (e.g. sea wall structures, if broken or damaged, can add debris and exacerbate flooding and erosion).

Further discussion of the structural responses to climate change and SLR and storm surge can be found in

the Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements section.

Technology and Public Education

Technology can enhance disaster management at all stages of the disaster management cycle. The national

operational committee for Education, Communication and Warning has, in recent year, been making efforts

to create an Education Sector disaster risk reduction (DRR) policy and plan (Babb, n.d.). As part of this

effort, public education has been executed through sensitisation campaigns, family disaster plan

competitions and literacy initiatives within elementary schools (Babb, n.d.). The role of the education

sector is acknowledged to go beyond simply providing information and building capacity, but schools are

also used as shelters and the education sector personnel can collect data or conduct surveys to verify data.

The International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC) has also contributed to contingency planning by

conducting community vulnerability and capacity assessments (VCA) in 35 communities across Belize6. Few

specific public education projects were identified in Belize during this research. Their website does have

information about District Organizations, Emergency Shelters and news/press releases, however hazard-

specific information was limited primarily to information on hurricanes (NEMO, 2011). As a result, Belizeans

do not have a lot of information easily available to them through the website

(http://www.nemo.org.bz/index.php) and what is available under Publications could be more user friendly

for those looking to education themselves. Community awareness campaigns through the Education,

Communication and Warning committee may be more interactive and far reaching through the district

committees.

Early Warning Systems (EWS)

An EWS is commonly used in conjunction with an evacuation plan to guide at-risk persons to safety and

avoid losses of life from natural hazard events. The use of an EWS is an effective communication tool only

when the proper instrumentation for collection of the necessary weather data is present (i.e. rain gauges,

tidal gauges, weather stations etc.). Belize was funded for a watershed flood management project by the

Japanese Government to provide warnings to communities along the Mopan and Belize Rivers (GFDRR,

2010). The Belize Electricity Company Limited (BECOL) also has a similar early warning system for the Macal

6 These studies are available on the CCCCC website www.caribbeanclimate.bz.

http://www.nemo.org.bz/index.php

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River, a tributary of the Belize River, where it has 3 hydroelectric generating facilities (GFDRR, 2010).

Through an information management project, NEMO is also working on enhancing early warning systems

and the UNDP has financed an Information Manager to permit better identification, assessment and

monitoring of disaster risk (GFDRR, 2010).

These are 3 important projects that are making positive contribution to the disaster management system

and vulnerability reduction efforts. However, an integrated system of communication and information

dissemination is also required. The National Meteorological Service has a network of hydrological and

meteorological observation stations, as well as weather and flood forecasting systems. The Chief

Meteorologist is a member of NEMO and offers advice on all phases of the National Hurricane Emergency

Plan (National Meteorological Service, 2011).

A tsunami early warning system is also important given Belize’s vulnerability and exposure to earthquakes.

Following the 2009 earthquake, efforts are being made to install a National Tide Monitoring Network with

sea level gauges and improved liaison with the PTWC and CDEMA warning systems (Williams R. , 2009).

While no system exists within Belize now, there is capacity for such a system and the information officer

funded by UNDP is one person who could lead the development of the tsunami warning system. Further

efforts to collaborate with the CCCCC would allow NEMO and the country to take advantage of the Centre

and its climate related resources (sea level gauges).

5.7.4. Policy

Across the Caribbean policies to adapt to and manage climate change impacts are becoming more

common. The strong relationship between disasters and climate change creates a policy arena where both

issues can be managed under similar governance mechanisms.

The Belize National Hazard Mitigation Policy (2004) integrates hazard risk management and sustainable

development at the national, sectoral and community level (GFDRR, 2010). The Hazard Mitigation Policy

was developed after two major storms created economic problems in Belize and this was also a time when

disaster management thinking was beginning to realise the importance of mainstreaming disaster risk

reduction into all areas and sectors to permit sustainable development. The policy concentrates on the

need for integrated hazard risk management at all levels, sectors and communities (NPDC, 2004). Another

focus of the policy is on environmental management and conservation. This item will not only help with

disaster and hazard management, but will also improve climate change adaptation because a healthy

environment is more resilient to shocks (extreme events) and slow-onset changes, such as SLR. One

criticism of this policy is its omission of fiscal or economic tools for hazard mitigation (Development

Solutions Ltd., 2006). Given the recent debt troubles in Belize, a hazard mitigation policy must include

considerations for reducing economic impacts. One possible tool to be explored could be a tax incentive for

investments in protection equipment, such as hurricane shutters.

Hazard Mitigation Plan – In the development of the Hazard Mitigation Plan, an assessment of institutional

capability and legislative effectiveness was carried out. This assessment offers both positive and negative

outcomes from the Hazard Mitigation Plan development and offers numerous recommendations for action

that would improve hazard risk reduction in Belize. The major deficiencies relate to lack of power to

enforce legislation, overlapping regulation and mitigation tools under different government agencies, a

skew of legislation toward preparedness and response, the need for greater resources in government

agencies and the need for better integration of the information on environment, development and

vulnerability into decision making (Development Solutions Ltd., 2006). This assessment document is

150

presented in a format that should enable prioritisation of actions to improve hazard mitigation in Belize.

Furthermore, it touches on many diverse but linked concepts of vulnerability and development including

gender, poverty and education.

Disaster Preparedness and Response Act, Chapter 145 (2000): This Act is the primary legislation guiding

disaster management in Belize. The Act outlines the roles and functions of the National Emergency

Coordinator (NEC), NEMO and the Ministers that lead the operational committees. Further information on

shelters and the emergency operations centres (EOC), as well as outlining the process for specially

vulnerable areas (Government of Belize, 2000). The Act is weak in a few areas of disaster management,

simply because of its focus on only two phases of the disaster management cycle. The legislation also does

not discuss risk transfer (GFDRR, 2010).

Together the Hazard Mitigation Policy and Plan and the Disaster Preparedness and Response Act provide a

comprehensive policy framework to guide disaster management. The overlap of goals and legislation

between these and other environmental and development policies demands open communication and

information sharing across Government ministries.

Environmental Impacts and Development Planning

Separate from the policies and plans for emergency management, environmental policies and plans can

also affect a country’s ability to sustain impact from and respond to, disasters. Often in communities

around the world, a ‘disaster’ results when natural hazard events occur in areas where there is an absence

of land-use planning, or as a result of poor development planning.

The first part of successful land-use planning is to consider the environmental conditions and hazards along

with the desired socio-economic development goals. Environmental impact assessments (EIAs), when

clearly defined and legislated, can ensure development does not have serious negative environmental

impacts. In Belize, EIA Regulations are part of the Environmental Protection Act; however, a definition of an

EIA is not part of the Act (Trotz, Rogers, de Romilly, & Clarke, 2004). Nevertheless, the EIA Regulations

clearly outline the review procedure and the Department of Environment (DOE) has the authority to

request further studies if they are not satisfied with the initial EIA results (Trotz, Rogers, de Romilly, &

Clarke, 2004). The NEC is consulted for EIAs when it is deemed necessary by the DOE, therefore disaster risk

considerations can be included in development planning. Although the EIA procedures and guidelines are

quite good, their consideration of climate change impacts could be improved and a model terms of

reference (TOR) would allow for more consistency in the approach to EIAs in Belize (Trotz, Rogers, de

Romilly, & Clarke, 2004).

Finally, in relation to environmental planning,

There is no overarching land use policy to guide sectoral policy formulation and

implementation as it relates to the use of land, whether for protected areas, industry,

agriculture or human settlement, or for defining human resource needs to manage natural

resources. This has implications to hazard mitigation at the policy level (Development

Solutions Ltd., 2006)

Therefore, developers and planning activities do not take environmentally sustainable action, nor do they

have to consider hazards. Legislation is an effective tool for demanding environmental sustainability, but so

too are financial and tax incentives, for example. Use of more diverse tools to address hazards and

environmental conservation/protection is desired in the Belize context (Development Solutions Ltd., 2006).

151

Construction and safe building

As a region, relevant groups are working hard toward the development and application of a Caribbean

Building Code or Building Standards using the International Code Council (ICC) codes as the primary base

documents with additional input from the Caribbean Uniform Building Code (CUBiC) and earlier

assessments on wind load and seismic considerations. The Code has already been prepared and the next

step is for each of the 15 states involved to review the documents and prepare their own Caribbean

Application Document (CAD). This document will most likely be prepared by specialists who will determine

how the regional code should be applied given each country’s own peculiarities; for example some

countries will focus more heavily on flooding and less on seismic considerations. The CAD will then be

reviewed by all of the relevant stakeholders on the National Stakeholder Subcommittee who will provide

comments before it is submitted to CARICOM (Personal communication - Jonathan Platt, Barbados National

Standards Institute. May 4, 2011).

Belize City’s Building Code has been in place since 1963 and Belmopan building and planning regulations,

however there is no national building code (Wason, 2002). The objective during the Caribbean Disaster

Mitigation Project (CDMP) was to complete a national building code and residential construction guide by

1999 (Wason, 2002). The Building Act was then officially created in 2003 with the establishment of the

Central Building Authority (Titus, 2007). Hurricane and fire considerations are mentioned in the Building

Act, however, the primary consideration is for older buildings that may be in disrepair, rather than new

structures (Government of Belize, 2003). This again is evidence of Belize’s focus on response, rather than

mitigation or preparedness, because in order to identify buildings as unsafe, there must be a report. The

limited resources for building inspectors cannot ensure all hazardous buildings are found. A related policy,

is the Reconstruction and Development Corporation Act which is no longer under an administering unit

which means it has not been enforced since Hurricane Hattie in 1961 (GFDRR, 2010). There is an

acknowledgement in Belize that structures must be built to certain standards and some training of building

inspectors has occurred, but greater efforts at collaboration and cooperation across Government agencies

is needed, especially links with NEMO.

Catastrophe Insurance Coverage

Re-insurance within the Caribbean region has generally been provided by international insurance

companies. However, the classification of the region as a catastrophe zone, thus being high risk, means that

insurance premiums remain very high for those who seek insurance. The Caribbean is home to the first risk

pooling facility designed to limit financial impacts of catastrophic hurricanes and earthquakes in Caribbean

member countries, by providing short-term liquidity when the policy is triggered (Kambon et al., 2011).

Originally, the insurance index was based on degree of shaking during earthquakes or wind speed for

hurricane events and the member country would qualify for a pay-out based on their policy and the level of

damages deemed to be associated with either wind or shaking. Recently, the need to also consider water

damages has been noted. As a result, the CCRIF has continued to make progress on an ‘Excess Rainfall

product’ which is anticipated for the beginning of the 2011-2012 policy year starting on June 1, 2011

(CCRIF, 2011).

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As part of the CARIBSAVE Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment methodology,

household surveys were conducted in the Placencia community to determine household and community

access to five livelihood assets (financial, physical, natural, social and human). Livelihood strategies

(combinations of assets) are evaluated to determine the adaptive capacity of households and consequently

communities. A total of 31 respondents were surveyed, 21 (68%) of whom were male and ten (32%) were

female.

5.8.1. Demographic profile of respondents

Residency in the Community

Overwhelmingly, respondents were long-time residents of Belize, with 84% (N= 26) of the sample indicating

that they had lived in their community for a minimum of 21 years. Female and male respondents, however,

displayed a similar distribution in terms of length of time in their community.

Table 5.8.1: Length of Residency in Community

Residency Male Female Total

1 - 5 years 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 1 3.2%

6 – 10 years 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

11 - 15 years 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 1 3.2%

16 - 20 years 1 4.8% 2 20.0% 3 9.7%

21 - 25 years 18 85.7% 8 80.0% 26 83.9%

Age Distribution

The sample was a predominantly older sample, with 65% of respondents being over the age of 45.

Table 5.8.2: Age Distribution of Sample

Age Male Female TOTAL

Under 25 0 0.0% 1 10.0% 1 3.2%

25 - 34 6 28.6% 1 10.0% 7 22.6%

35 - 44 3 14.3% 0 .0% 3 9.7%

45 - 54 2 9.5% 3 30.0% 5 16.1%

55 - 59 4 19.0% 1 10.0% 5 16.1%

Over 60 6 28.6% 4 40.0% 10 32.3%

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Figure 5.8.1: Age of Respondents

5.8.2. Household form and structure

Given the older demographic of the sample, nearly 26% of respondents were widowed. Half of female

respondents were widowed. 45% of respondents were married or in a common-law relationship.

Table 5.8.3: Relationship Status of Respondents

Status Male Female Total

Single 1 4.8% 1 10.0% 2 6.5%

Single (Visiting Relationship) 5 23.8% 0 0.0% 5 16.1%

Married 8 38.1% 2 20.0% 10 32.3%

Separated 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 1 3.2%

Other/Common Law 2 9.5% 2 20.0% 4 12.9%

Divorced 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 1 3.2%

Widowed 3 14.3% 5 50.0% 8 25.8%

When disaggregated on the basis of sex, a larger proportion of male respondents (N=8 / 38%) than female

respondents (N=2 / 20%) indicated that they were married, suggesting possibly stronger support systems

present for men. This is likely due to the age distribution of the sample.

.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Under 25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 59 Over 60

Males Females

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Figure 5.8.2: Relationship Status of Respondents

5.8.3. Household headship

More than a third of the respondents sampled listed themselves as the heads of their respective

households (N=27/ 90%). This was more so the case for male respondents, 95% of whom indicated that

they were considered the head of their households compared to 70% of female respondents who indicated

that they were considered the head of their household. One female respondent indicated that household

headship was shared and therefore their data is not included in many of the analysis where data is

separated into male and female headship categories. When data is analysed on the basis of sex of the

respondent, then this respondent’s data is included.

Table 5.8.4: Perception of Headship of Household

Perceived as Head of Household

Sex of Respondent

Male Female

Yes 20 95.2% 7 70.0%

No 0 0% 3 30.0%

Table 5.8.5: Household Headship by Gender

Gender of Respondent Male Headed Households

Female Headed Households

Sample (n=30)

Males 21 91.3% 0 0% 21 70%

Females 2 8.7% 7 100% 9 30%

Total (as % of sample 23 76.7% 7 23.3% 30 100%

With regards to household size, 94% (N=28) of respondents indicated that they lived in households of

between 1 and 3 persons. Two male respondents indicated that they belonged to a household of more

.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

Single Single (Visiting

Relationship)

Married Separated Other/Common Law

Divorced Widowed

Males 4.8% 23.8% 38.1% 4.8% 9.5% 4.8% 14.3%

Females 10.0% .0% 20.0% .0% 20.0% .0% 50.0%

Total 6.5% 16.1% 32.3% 3.2% 12.9% 3.2% 25.8%

155

than 4 persons. Seven male respondents and 4 female respondents indicated they lived alone (37%; see

Table 5.8.6).

Table 5.8.6: Household Size by Sex of Head of Household

Size of Household Headship of Household

Male Female Total

1 7 30% 4 57% 11 37%

2 - 3 14 61% 3 43% 17 57%

4 - 5 1 4% 0 0% 1 3%

6 - 7 1 4% 0 0% 1 3%

8 - 9 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%

5.8.4. Education and livelihoods

The largest proportion of the sample (N=25 /80.6%) indicated that they had completed a secondary level of

education, 5 of whom had completed the advanced placement secondary education. Of note, there is a

slightly higher proportion of males who had undertaken community college or a tertiary sector education

(university, professional designation etc...).

Table 5.8.7: Sample Distribution by Education and Training

Highest Level of Education Male Female Total

Primary 1 4.8% 0 0% 1 3.2%

Secondary (Ordinary Level) 13 61.9% 7 70.0% 20 64.5%

Secondary (Advanced Level) 3 14.3% 2 20.0% 5 16.1%

Community College 1 4.8% 0 0% 1 3.2%

Tertiary 3 14.3% 1 10.0% 4 12.9%

Figure 5.8.3 shows that the sample is fairly evenly distributed between the lower three and higher three

income ranges. The largest portion of the sample fall within the highest income category (>US $1,500), and

conversely, the smallest portion of the sample fall in the lowest category (<US $500). In terms of gender,

male-headed households indicated higher average incomes than female-headed households, whereas

female-headed households dominate the lower household income brackets.

156

Figure 5.8.3: Sample Distribution by Average Monthly Earnings

Predominantly, respondents acquired their primary income from tourism. Only seven respondents (23%)

indicated that their primary household income wasn’t from tourism.

Table 5.8.8: Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Tourism Sector

Tourism Sector Involvement Male Female Total

Yes 16 76% 4 40% 20 65%

No 5 24% 2 20% 7 23%

Didn't respond 0 0% 4 40% 4 13%

The largest proportion of respondents (N=10) derived their primary source of income from privately owned

business in the tourism sector. Three respondents were informal tour guides and 6 respondents were tour

operators. Only six respondents worked in an employment sector outside of tourism, three of which

indicated they were self employed, two worked in transportation and only one was in the mechanical /

technical field.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

<500 USD 500-750 USD

751-1000 USD

1001 - 1250 USD

1251-1500 USD

>1500

Male Headed Households Female Headed Households Total

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Table 5.8.9: Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Non-Tourism Sectors

Employment Sector Male Female Total

Taxi Driver 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 1 3.2%

Tour Operator 5 23.8% 1 10.0% 6 19.4%

Hotel Workers 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Restaurant Workers 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Craft sellers or vendors 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Informal tour guides 3 14.3% 0 0.0% 3 9.7%

Privately owned business 6 28.6% 4 40.0% 10 32.3%

Other 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 1 3.2%

Did not answer 5 23.8% 5 50.0% 10 32.3%

5.8.5. Food security

Overwhelmingly respondents (80%) indicated that their food supply was procured from grocery stores or

super markets. Additional sources of food included Traditional Markets (16.7%) and Community Shops

(6.7%).

Table 5.8.10: Source of Food Supply

Source of Food Supply Male Headed Female Headed

Sample Male Female Male Female

Grown by Family 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Grocery store/Super market 18 85.7% 2 100% 0 0.0% 4 57.1% 24 80.0%

Open air/Traditional market 5 23.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 5 16.7%

Community 2 9.5% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 6.7%

Barter 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Other 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

When asked about the adequacy of the household food supply, all but one respondent (female) indicated

an adequate supply throughout the year. Given the small sample size a definitive conclusion cannot be

made in regards to gender and food adequacy, but more research in this area could provide further

insights.

Table 5.8.11: Adequacy of Food Supply

Adequacy of Food Supply

Male Headed Female Headed Sample

Male Female Male Female

Yes 20 95.2% 2 100.0% 0 0.0% 6 85.7% 28 93.3%

No 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 14.3% 1 3.3%

5.8.6. Financial security and social protection

Evidence of such networks is apparent, based on the ways in which households headed in different ways

received and offered support:

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28.6% of respondents from female headed households received financial support from relatives

compared to 4.8% of respondents from male headed households who receive similar support.

9.45% of respondents from male headed households gave financial support to friends.

Respondents from female headed homes both received financial support from relatives, friends,

religious organisations and charitable organisations. One female respondent gave financial support

to a charitable organisation.

Table 5.8.12: Distribution by Financial Responsibility for House (Receive support)

Sources of Financial Support from Household



Relative 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 28.6% 3 10.0%

Family Friend 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 14.3% 1 3.3%

Religious Organisation 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 14.3% 1 3.3%

Charitable Organisation 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 28.6% 2 6.7%

Government 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Other 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 3.3%

Table 5.8.13: Distribution by Financial Responsibility for House (Give support)

Recipients of Financial Support from Household



Relative 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Family Friend 2 9.5% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 6.7%

Religious Organisation 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Charitable Organisation 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 14.3% 1 3.3%

Government 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Other 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Respondents generally seemed to prefer accessing credit from formal sources as all respondents accessing

credit within the last year did so through either a Commercial Bank.

Table 5.8.14: Distribution by Access to Credit

Source of Credit Male Headed Female Headed


Commercial Bank Loan 5 23.8% 2 100.0% 0 0.0% 2 28.6% 9 30.0%

Credit Union Loan 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Sou Sou / Partner 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Most Respondents generally believed that in the instance of job loss or the occurrence of some natural

disaster, their financial reserves would last between one and six months. However, quite a few respondents

(nearly 25% of sample) also indicated having financial reserves that would last for more than a year.

159

Figure 5.8.4: Financial Security: Job Loss or Natural Disaster

More specifically: in relation to Job Loss, nearly half of male respondents indicated that they would have

financial coverage for 4-6 months (N=10/50%). Four male respondents and three female respondents

indicated that they would have financial resources for over one year. There were three male and three

female respondents who indicated they had financial reserves for 1-3 months. When looking at these data

it is important to remember the age of the respondents and note that many respondents are retired and

would therefore not be impacted by job loss.

Table 5.8.15: Sample Distribution by Financial Security: Job Loss

Financial Reserve Male Headed Female Headed


Less than 1 month 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 3.3%

1 - 3 months 3 14.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 3 42.9% 6 20.0%

4 - 6 months 10 47.6% 1 50.0% 0 0.0% 2 28.6% 13 43.3%

7 - 9 months 2 9.5% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 6.7%

10 - 12 months 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 3.3%

More than 1 year 4 19.1% 1 50.0% 0 0.0% 2 28.56% 7 23.3%

Do not know 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Similarly, respondents from female headed households indicated the same periods of financial coverage for

a natural disaster as they had for job loss. Generally male respondents also indicated the similar, though

slightly shorter periods of financial coverage. In the event of a natural disaster, seven male respondents

indicated they had financial resources for 1-3 months and seven responded that they had resources for 4-6

months. It is possible that male respondents have a more thorough understanding of the impacts of natural

hazards and can therefore, more appropriately, appreciate the financial implications. This is an area that

needs further research to determine the extent to which awareness and knowledge of natural hazards

impacts financial planning and awareness.

The perception of ability to support the household is a particularly useful indicator of resilience and would

be important in determining the ways in which households adapt in the face of a natural / climate related

event.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Less than 1 month

1 - 3 months

4 - 6 months

7-9 months 10-12 months

More than 1 year

Natural Disaster Job Loss

160

Table 5.8.16: Sample Distribution by Financial Security: Natural Disaster



Less than 1 month 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 3.3%

1 - 3 months 7 33.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 2 28.6% 9 30.0%

4 - 6 months 7 33.3% 1 50.0% 0 0.0% 3 42.9% 11 36.7%

7 - 9 months 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 3.3%

10 - 12 months 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 3.3%

More than 1 year 4 19.1% 1 50.0% 0 0.0% 2 28.6% 7 23.3%

Do not know 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 3.3%

In terms of social protection provisions, respondents generally had little private social protection, with only

three respondents having health insurance (10% of sample). Less than 20% of the sample had flooding or

storm surge insurance.

From female headed households, no respondent had health, flooding, or storm surge

insurance, though all respondents had private pension and national insurance.

Male headed household had a higher rate of insurance coverage for home insurance against

hurricane damage (39% covered), storm surge (22% covered), flooding (22% covered) and fire

insurance (39% covered).

Conversely, female headed households had a higher rate of private pension (FHH = 100%,

MHH= 70%) and national insurance (FHH=100%, MHH= 83%).

Table 5.8.17: Sample Distribution by Social Protection Provisions

Social Protection Provision Male Headed Female Headed


Health Insurance 3 14.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 3 10.0%

Private Pension Savings Plan 15 71.4% 1 50.0% 0 0.0% 7 100.0% 23 76.7%

National Insurance / Government Pension

18 85.7% 1 50.0% 0 0.0% 7 100.0% 26 86.7%

Home Insurance - Hurricane Damage (water/wind)

8 38.1% 1 50.0% 0 0.0% 2 28.6% 11 36.7%

Home Insurance - Flooding 4 19.1% 1 50.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 5 16.7%

Home Insurance - Storm Surge 4 19.1% 1 50.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 5 16.7%

5.8.7. Asset base

Ownership of assets, like provision of social protection, was generally high for respondents. The highest

proportion of respondents indicated ownership of houses (96.7%), Land (90%) and Business (53.3%). The

greatest difference between males and females was in the ownership of vehicles (FHH, N=1/14.3%; MHH, N

= 6/28.6%) and the ownership of boats (FHH, N=0/0.0%; MHH, N = 12/52.2%),

161

Table 5.8.18: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Capital Assets

Asset / Amenity Male Headed Female Headed


House 20 95.2% 2 100.0% 0 0.0% 7 100.0% 29 96.7%

Land 18 85.7% 2 100.0% 0 0.0% 7 100.0% 27 90.0%

Livestock 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 3.3%

Industrial/Agricultural 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Commercial Vehicles 6 28.6% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 14.3% 7 23.3%

Private Business 11 52.4% 1 50.0% 0 0.0% 4 57.1% 16 53.3%

Other (boat) 11 52.4% 1 50.0% 0 0.0% 2 28.6% 14 46.7%

A further examination of assets revealed that:

Respondents most often indicated having television sets (96.7%), radios (93.3%), mobile phones (86.7%)

and DVD Players (76.7%) in their homes. 26.7% of respondents indicated having a desk top computer, while

33.3% indicated having lap tops. Of interest: there were no females in female headed households in

ownership of a laptop and only two were in ownership of a desktop computer. This again could be

attributed to age, rather than gender, but this could have serious implications for community based

warning systems in the event of a climate related event and in the creation of any mitigation or adaptation

strategy, the cost to communicate with all community members would need to be factored in as a

consideration.

Table 5.8.19: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Appliances / Electronics



Computer (Desktop) 4 19.0% 2 100.0% NA NA

2 28.6% 8 26.7%

Computer (Laptop) 8 38.1% 2 100.0% NA NA

0 0.0% 10 33.3%

Internet 10 47.6% 2 100.0% NA NA

2 28.6% 14 46.7%

Television 20 95.2% 2 100.0% NA NA

7 100.0% 29 96.7%

Video Player / Recorder 1 4.8% 1 50.0% NA NA

0 0.0% 2 6.7%

DVD Player 17 81.0% 2 100.0% NA NA

4 57.1% 23 76.7%

Radio 19 90.5% 2 100.0% NA NA

7 100.0% 28 93.3%

Telephone (Land line) 9 42.9% 1 50.0% NA NA

3 42.9% 13 43.3%

Telephone (Mobile) 18 85.7% 2 100.0% NA NA

6 85.7% 26 86.7%

The issue of communication in the instance of a climate related event seems more critical when measured

against access to transportation. Predominantly the sample most normally had access to public

transportation, though members of male headed households had more access to private motorised

vehicles and boats. However, only members of male headed households had access to boats, motorised

and non-motorised private vehicles (bicycles etc…). This is especially important given the age and possible

mobility barriers faced by the older female respondents.

162

Table 5.8.20: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Transportation

Vehicle Access Male Headed Female Headed Sample

Private motorised vehicle 8 34.8% 1 16.7% 9 29.03%

Private non-motorised vehicle 3 13.0% 0 0.00% 4 12.90%

Public transit 12 52.2% 4 66.7% 16 51.61%

Other (boats) 14 60.9% 1 16.7% 15 48.39%

The largest proportion of respondents (N=20/64.5%) indicated that their home was made of wood and 10%

(N=30), indicated their house was made of blocks and cement. There is little difference between male and

female headed households.

Table 5.8.21: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: House Material

House Material Male Headed Female Headed Sample

Blocks and cement 8 34.8% 2 25.0% 10 32.3%

Wood 15 65.2% 5 62.5% 20 64.5%

Respondents indicated that they had good access to sanitation conveniences, with 100% of respondents

sampled indicating that they always had access to liquid waste disposal and indoor water-flush toilets.

Table 5.8.22: Sample Distribution by Ownership of Assets: Access to Sanitation Conveniences

Amenity Access Male Headed Female Headed Sample

Liquid Waste Disposal

Always 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Sometimes 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Never 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Indoor water-flush toilets

Always 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Sometimes 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Never 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Garbage collection

Always 95.7% 100.0% 96.7%

Sometimes 4.3% 0.0% 3.3%

Never 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

5.8.8. Power and decision making

Both female and male respondents indicated high levels of responsibility for decision making at level of the

household and formal community, while only males (N=2) indicated they were responsibility for decision

making at the informal community level.

Table 5.8.23: Power and Decision Making

Site of Decision Making Males Females

Household 21 100.0% 9 90.0%

Informal Community 2 9.5% 0 0.0%

Formal Community 1 4.8% 1 10.0%

163

Table 5.8.24: Power and Decision Making: Intra Household

Site of Decision Making

Male Headed Female Headed

Male Female Total Male Female Total

Household 21 100.0% 1 50.0% 22 95.7% 0 0.0% 7 100.0% 7 100.0%

Informal Community 2 9.5% 0 0.0% 2 8.7% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Formal Community 1 4.8% 0 0.0% 1 4.3% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

5.8.9. Social networks and social capital

Both male and female respondents were moderately active in their community. 30% of females and 28.6%

of male respondents reported belonging to a social group within the community.

Table 5.8.25: Social Networks: Community Involvement

Membership Male Female

Yes 6 28.6% 3 30.0%

No 14 66.7% 7 70.0%

With regards to support systems:

Male respondents tended to rely on relatives outside their households for physical help, personal advice

and financial assistance. Female respondents relied more heavily on religious organisation for personal

advice, but also relied on friends and family for physical, personal and financial help. Of note, other than

for financial assistance, Government Agencies were not indicated as being utilised for physical help or

personal advice.

Table 5.8.26: Social Networks: Support Systems

Support System Physical Help Personal Advice Financial Assistance

Male Female Male Female Male Female

Relative (within the household) 19.0% 30.0% 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0%

Relative (outside the household) 61.9% 80.0% 42.9% 30.0% 61.9% 40.0%

Family friend 23.8% 10.0% 33.3% 30.0% 23.8% 50.0%

Religious Organisation 4.8% 0.0% 14.3% 40.0% 0.0% 20.0%

Non-religious Charity 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Government Agency 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 10.0%

5.8.10. Use of natural resources

Other than in the instance of the sea, coral reefs and mangroves, respondents generally indicated a low

level of use for natural resources, with more than 55% of respondents indicating that other resources were

of not of particular importance to them for either their subsistence or livelihoods. Generally coastal

resources are important for livelihoods.

164

When further disaggregated on the basis of sex, there was little disparity in the use of natural assets, where

a slightly larger proportion of male respondents were dependent on coastal natural resources for livelihood

and subsistence. Females were slightly more dependent on agricultural lands than male respondents.

165

Table 5.8.27: Use and Importance of Natural Resources

Resource Importance Subsistence Livelihood Recreation

River / Stream

Very Important 0 0.0% 9 30.0% 1 3.3%

Somewhat important 1 3.3% 2 6.7% 11 36.7%

Not at all important 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 3.3%

None / Do Not Use 29 96.7% 19 63.3% 17 56.7%

Sea

Very Important 1 3.3% 25 83.3% 5 16.7%



None / Do Not Use 24 80.0% 5 16.7% 18 60.0%

Coral Reefs

Very Important 2 6.7% 23 76.7% 3 10.3%



None / Do Not Use 23 76.7% 6 20.0% 18 62.1%

Mangrove

Very Important 1 3.3% 18 60.0% 3 10.0%



None / Do Not Use 28 93.3% 3 10.0% 26 86.7%

Agricultural Land

Very Important 3 10.0% 6 20.0% 0 0.0%



None / Do Not Use 14 46.7% 24 80.0% 29 96.7%

Bush and Forest

Very Important 0 0.0% 6 20.0% 0 0.0%



None / Do Not Use 30 100.0%

19 63.3% 22 73.3%

Mountain

Very Important 0 0.0% 5 16.7% 0 0.0%




20 66.7% 24 80.0%

Caves

Very Important 0 0.0% 6 20.0% 0 0.0%




19 63.3% 23 76.7%

Wild Animals

Very Important 0 0.0% 8 26.7% 0 0.0%



None / Do Not Use 21 70.0% 17 56.7% 25 83.3%

166

Table 5.8.28: Use and Importance of Natural Resources, by Sex of Respondent

Resource Importance Subsistence Livelihood Recreation

Male Female Male Female Male Female

River / Stream

Very Important 0.0% 0.0% 33.3%%

22.2% 4.8% 0.0%

Somewhat important 4.8% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 33.3%%

44.4%

Not at all important 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0%

None / Do Not Use 95.24%

100% 57.1% 77.8% 57.1% 55.6%

Sea

Very Important 4.8% 0.0% 85.7% 77.8% 23.8% 0.0%

Somewhat important 23.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.6% 11.1%



100% 14.3% 22.2% 47.6% 88.9%

Coral Reefs

Very Important 9.5% 0.0% 81.0% 66.7% 15.00%

0.0%

Somewhat important 23.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 35.00%

11.1%


None / Do Not Use 66.7% 100% 19.1% 22.2% 50.0% 88.9%

Mangrove

Very Important 4.8% 0.0% 62.0% 55.6% 14.3% 0.0%

Somewhat important 4.8% 0.0% 33.3%%

22.2% 0.0% 11.1%



100% 4.8% 22.2% 85.7% 88.9%

Agricultural Land

Very Important 9.5% 11.1% 14.3% 33.3%%

0.0% 0.0%

Somewhat important 47.6% 33.3%%

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1%



55.6% 85.7% 66.7% 100% 88.9%

Bush and Forest

Very Important 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Somewhat important 0.0% 0.0% 23.8% 0.0% 23.8% 33.3%% Not at all important 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

None / Do Not Use 100% 100% 57.1% 77.8% 76.19%

66.7%

Mountain

Very Important 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0%



None / Do Not Use 100% 100% 66.7% 66.7% 81.0% 77.8%

Caves

Very Important 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0%



None / Do Not Use 100% 100% 62.0% 66.7% 76.2% 77.8%

Wild Animals

Very Important 0.0% 0.0% 28.6% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Somewhat important 33.3%%

22.2% 19.1% 11.1% 14.3% 22.2%


None / Do Not Use 66.7% 77.8% 53.4% 66.7% 85.7% 77.8%

167

Agriculture

Only three respondents indicated they were involved in the agriculture sectors and all indicated they

always had access to reliable water.

Table 5.8.29: Involvement in Agriculture: Access to Water

Reliability of Water


Always 2 100.00%

1 100.00%

3 100.00% Sometimes 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00%

Never 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00%

5.8.11. Knowledge, exposure and experience of climate related events

Respondents indicated very good levels of knowledge in relation to hurricanes (96.7%) and average or very

good knowledge of flooding (average = 56.7% and very good = 43.3%) and storm surge (average = 36.7%

and very good = 60.0%) However, knowledge was not quite as comprehensive in relation to landslides or

drought.

When examined on the basis of household structure and headship:

- In the instance of flooding, 56.5% of respondents from male headed households indicated that their

knowledge was very good, compared to 0% from female headed households. Similar results are seen in

terms of storm surges, 78.3% of respondents from male headed households indicated that their knowledge

was very good, compared to 0% from female headed households.

Table 5.8.30: Knowledge of Climate Related Events

Event Knowledge SAMPLE1 MALE HEADED FEMALE HEADED


Hurricane

Poor 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Average 3.3% 0.0% 50.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Very Good 96.7% 100.0% 50.0% 95.7% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Flooding

Poor 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Average 56.7% 38.1% 100.0% 43.5% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Very Good 43.3% 61.9% 0.0% 56.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Storm Surge

Poor 3.3% 0.0% 50.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Average 36.7% 14.3% 50.0% 17.4% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Very Good 60.0% 85.7% 0.0% 78.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Drought

Poor 43.3% 38.1% 50.0% 39.1% 0.0% 57.1% 57.1%

Average 50.0% 52.4% 50.0% 52.2% 0.0% 42.9% 42.9%

Very Good 6.7% 9.5% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Landslides

Poor 46.7% 42.9% 50.0% 43.5% 0.0% 57.1% 57.1%

Average 46.7% 47.6% 50.0% 47.8% 0.0% 42.9% 42.9%

Very Good 6.7% 9.5% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1: Where respondents did not indicate an option, the total percentage of respondents sum up to less than 100%

168

Despite knowledge gaps with regards to the technical aspects of the various climate related events,

respondents showed various levels of awareness of the appropriate course of action to be taken in the

instance such an event occurred:

In the event of a Hurricane, all but one respondent was aware of what to do, without having to ask

for assistance.

In the instance of Flooding, a slightly less proportion of respondents sampled (73.3%) were aware

of appropriate action to take, without asking for assistance.

In the event of a Landslide, only one respondent was aware of what should be done.

Of note, respondents from male headed households consistently were more aware of the appropriate

response to climate related events, than respondents from female headed households. This could have

serious implications for the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for members of these

households.

Table 5.8.31: Knowledge of Appropriate Response to Climate Related Events

Event Knowledge SAMPLE1 MALE HEADED FEMALE HEADED


Hurricane

Yes 96.7% 95.2% 100.0% 95.7% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

No 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Don't Know 3.3% 4.8% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Flooding

Yes 73.3% 85.7% 100.0% 87.0% 0.0% 28.6% 28.6%

No 16.7% 4.8% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 57.1% 57.1%

Don't Know 10.0% 9.5% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 14.3% 14.3%

Storm Surge

Yes 73.3% 85.7% 100.0% 87.0% 0.0% 28.6% 28.6%

No 20.0% 9.5% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 57.1% 57.1%

Don't Know 6.7% 4.8% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 14.3% 14.3%

Drought

Yes 10.0% 14.3% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

No 66.7% 57.1% 50.0% 56.5% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Don't Know 23.3% 28.6% 50.0% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Landslides

Yes 3.3% 4.8% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

No 80.0% 71.4% 100.0% 73.9% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Don't Know 6.7% 9.5% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1: Where respondents did not indicate an option, the total percentage of respondents sum up to less than 100%

When questioned around the perceived risk of climate related events to their households, respondents

most often indicated a High Risk of Storm Surge (63.3%) and Hurricanes (57.7%), though this was slightly

more so in the case of respondents from female headed households (storm surge = 71.4%, hurricane =

85.7%) than those from male headed households (storm surge = 60.9%, hurricane = 47.8%). Similarly,

respondents from female headed households reported higher levels of risk for Flooding (42.9%) than

respondents from male headed households, where 17.4% reported high levels of risk of flooding. There was

no risk of drought reported by survey respondents and only one respondent indicated there was a risk of

landslides.

169

Table 5.8.32: Perceived Level of Risk of Climate Related Events: Household

Event Perception of Risk Level

SAMPLE1 MALE HEADED FEMALE HEADED


Hurricane

No Risk 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Low Risk 43.3% 52.4% 50.0% 52.2% 0.0% 14.3% 14.3%

High Risk 56.7% 47.6% 50.0% 47.8% 0.0% 85.7% 85.7%

Flooding

No Risk 23.3% 28.6% 50.0% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Low Risk 53.3% 57.1% 0.0% 52.2% 0.0% 57.1% 57.1%

High Risk 23.3% 14.3% 50.0% 17.4% 0.0% 42.9% 42.9%

Storm Surge

No Risk 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Low Risk 36.7% 38.1% 50.0% 39.1% 0.0% 28.6% 28.6%

High Risk 63.3% 61.9% 50.0% 60.9% 0.0% 71.4% 71.4%

Drought

No Risk 63.3% 71.4% 50.0% 69.6% 0.0% 42.9% 42.9%

Low Risk 33.3% 23.8% 50.0% 26.1% 0.0% 57.1% 57.1%

High Risk 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Landslides

No Risk 73.3% 90.5% 50.0% 87.0% 0.0% 28.6% 28.6%

Low Risk 20.0% 4.8% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 71.4% 71.4%

High Risk 3.3% 0.0% 50.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


Of interest respondents reported higher levels of risk to climate related event for the community than they

did for their own households with regards to hurricanes and drought. For all other risks, respondents

reported lower levels of risk to climate related event for the community than they did for their own

households.

Similar to patterns observed in relation to perceived risk to respondents’ households, respondents from

female headed households indicated higher levels of risk to their community in the instance of hurricane,

flooding and storm surge than respondents from male headed households.

170

Table 5.8.33: Perceived Level of Risk of Climate Related Events: Community

Event Perception of Risk Level

SAMPLE1 MALE HEADED FEMALE HEADED


Hurricane

No Risk 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Low Risk 3.3% 4.8% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

High Risk 96.7% 95.2% 100.0% 95.7% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Flooding

No Risk 16.7% 19.0% 50.0% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Low Risk 60.0% 66.7% 50.0% 65.2% 0.0% 42.9% 42.9%

High Risk 23.3% 14.3% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 57.1% 57.1%

Storm Surge

No Risk 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Low Risk 13.3% 9.5% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 28.6% 28.6%

High Risk 26.7% 4.8% 100.0% 13.0% 0.0% 71.4% 71.4%

Drought

No Risk 36.7% 42.9% 50.0% 43.5% 0.0% 14.3% 14.3%

Low Risk 56.7% 52.4% 0.0% 47.8% 0.0% 85.7% 85.7%

High Risk 6.7% 4.8% 50.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Landslides

No Risk 60.0% 71.4% 50.0% 69.6% 0.0% 28.6% 28.6%

Low Risk 26.7% 14.3% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 71.4% 71.4%

High Risk 3.3% 0.0% 50.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


The disparity (between perceived risk at the household and community level) was greatest in the instance

of hurricanes: for which 56.7% of respondents indicated a High Risk for their households, compared to

96.7% of whom indicated a high risk for their respective community.

171

Figure 5.8.5: Perception of Risk for Climate Related Events

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

No Risk

Low Risk

High Risk

No Risk

Low Risk

High Risk

No Risk

Low Risk

High Risk

No Risk

Low Risk

High Risk

No Risk

Low Risk

High Risk H

urr

ican

e Fl

oo

din

g St

orm

Su

rge

Dro

ugh

t La

nd

slid

es

Risk to Household Risk to Community

172

Similar to perceptions of risk of climate related events, respondents consistently reported higher levels of

support received within the community than in their respective households, during climate related events.

The greatest disparity was observed in education materials, structure improvements received, as well as

residence in shelters. The disparity in relief supplies distribution, evacuation assistance also bears noting.

Figure 5.8.6: Support during Climate Related Events

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

Yes

No

Don't Know

Yes

No

Don't Know

Yes

No

Don't Know

Yes

No

Don't Know

Yes

No

Don't Know

Rel

ief

Sup

plie

s Ev

acu

atio

n

Ass

ista

nce

R

esid

ence

in

shel

ter

stru

ctu

re

imp

rove

men

ts

pu

blic

ed

uca

tio

n

mat

eria

l

Disaster Management Household Disaster Management Community

173

6. RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES AND INITIAL ACTION PLAN

The following recommendations have been developed in consultation with national and community

stakeholders through the use of various participatory tools. They support the main objective of the CCCRA

which is to provide a scientific (physical and social) basis to support decision making, policy and planning by

governments, communities and the private sector that increase resilience of economies and livelihoods to

climate change. The recommendations are also consistent with the strategies and programmes identified in

the Climate Change and the Caribbean: A Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to

Climate Change endorsed by the CARICOM Heads of State.

Recommendations are presented as an initial plan of action with a brief description of the intervention, the

national and/or local stakeholders involved and the expected benefits, and are categorised according to

short-, medium- and long-term interventions. All recommendations are considered ‘No-regret’ or ‘Low-

regret’ strategies. 'No-regret' strategies seek to maximise positive and minimise negative outcomes for

communities and societies in climate-sensitive areas such as agriculture, food security, water resources and

health. This means taking climate-related decisions or actions that make sense in development terms,

whether or not a specific climate threat actually materialises in the future. ‘Low-regret’ adaptation options

are those where moderate levels of investment increase the capacity to cope with future climate risks.

Typically, these involve over-specifying components, for example installing larger diameter drains or

hurricane shutters at the time of initial construction or refurbishment (World Bank, 2012).

Each one or a group of recommendations can be further developed into a concept note or project proposal

with a full action plan, with much of the supporting information found in this document. Earlier sections of

this report have provided the rationale for recommended interventions based on the vulnerabilities and

adaptive capacity identified for key sectors.

6.1. Cross-Cutting Actions

The following activities must be undertaken in the short-term, across a number of sectors, to ensure the

success of the more specific and practical recommendations presented in later sections. These cross-cutting

actions provide the necessary foundation, in terms of information and data, development policy,

awareness raising and cross-sectoral linkages from which wider actions to combat the threat of climate

change on future development can be legitimized. With this foundation, future actions and the allocation

of resources to adaptation and mitigation activities are more easily justified because decisions can be based

on current information, as well as common goals and a widespread understanding of the severity of the

threat.

6.1.1. Implementing and Strengthening Data Collection, Monitoring and

Evaluation Activities

It is evident in a number of sectors that the lack of data and inadequate monitoring and evaluation

procedures inhibit the ability of the relevant agencies to plan and manage a number of resources.

Monitoring and evaluation is essential if progress is to be demonstrated. By collecting and sharing the

information gathered, Section 6.1.3, it is possible to gain even greater support amongst stakeholders.

Specific areas and suggestions for data collection, monitoring and evaluation include:

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Detailed surveying of groundwater resources and well infrastructure: Groundwater is highly significant in

Belize with 95% of rural communities dependent on it as their primary source of freshwater. The lack of

information regarding groundwater leads to a difficulty in the management of future water resources

under climate change and increases the vulnerability of communities. The BWS in coordination with

academia and local village water boards should seek to conduct a detail survey of groundwater resources

and well infrastructure to facilitate better planning and management.

Energy audits: Only few countries and businesses assess and monitor their tourism-related energy use and

emissions. National- as well as company-specific inventories to assess energy use and related emissions are

a precondition for any work to reduce energy use. It is therefore recommended that capacity assessments

be undertaken and the necessary training provided to ensure that Belize has the personnel capable of

undertaking energy and carbon audits. Companies should then engage these services to carry out the

audits. Energy- and carbon labelling of a wide range of products and services should also be policy goals. As

for instance Meade and Pringle (2001) have shown, engaging in environmental management systems can

have a significant cost-saving impact and be an avenue to engage stakeholders. Notably, the economically

important tourism system in Belize may be far more energy-dependent than currently anticipated. This

should also be investigated on a more detailed basis through a national energy audit.

Assessments focusing on the links between health, tourism and climate change: Literature on tourism and

climate change is growing as the economic importance of the latter on the former is more and more being

realised and emphasized (Hamilton and Tol, 2004). So too are the parallels between tourism and climate

change with health. There is a need for assessments to better understand the links between the

epidemiology of diseases in Belize with climate change using local climate data. The consequences of air

travel and the cost of health incurred to tourists could also be assessed. Exit Surveys can be conducted to

investigate potential health concerns, and to determine the perception of tourists on the relationships

between travel, health and climate change in Belize. Input would be required from the Ministry of Health

and departments within (such as the Department of Public Health, medical laboratories), the Ministry of

Natural Resources and the Environment, and the Belize National Meteorological Service. These

assessments can lead to a better understanding of the implications for tourists entering the region

contracting diseases, particularly communicable diseases; and the likelihood of destination substitution.

Monitoring, evaluation and research publishing in the Health sector: In order to address the problem of

the ‘grey’ literature used in this review it is recommended that a greater effort be made by the

Government of Belize to have data better analysed, peer reviewed and published in general, but especially

within the Health sector. If more research of climate related disease can be conducted this will provide the

evidence that epidemics and climatic variables are related. This effort requires collaboration between the

Health Departments, the National Meteorology Service and the academic community. It would further

develop a “culture” for systematic review and the conversion of knowledge into policy and planning.

Management, monitoring and regulation compliance in coastal development and resource use activities:

The Government has taken an important first step by reinstating the Coastal Zone Management Authority

and Institute (CZMAI). Now, it needs to invest in CZMAI and other science-based efforts to expand

monitoring activities and assess the state and use of coastal resources. Additional resources for tightening

and enforcing fishing regulations are also badly needed.

Inventory of existing coastal protection defences, as well as their design range and maintenance status:

The analysis of the vulnerability of tourism infrastructure was hindered by inadequate data on existing

coastal structures, their type, design specifications and expected lifetime. Future assessments of the costs

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and benefits of coastal protection require this information to provide a more accurate estimate of the

resources required for SLR adaptation, and should be considered by CZMAI.

6.1.2. Mainstreaming Climate Change in Planning, Policy and Practice

Due to the time scales required for the removal of GHG from the atmosphere and the thermal inertia of the

oceans, the effects of prior emissions will ensure that climate change impacts will persist for more than a

millennium (Areces-Mallea, et al., 1999; ECCB, 2009). It is therefore vital to not only recognize the

vulnerabilities, but to anticipate and prepare for future implications. More than implementing a technology

or building a structure, mainstreaming climate change becomes a critical element of adaptation if it is to be

successful. It involves awareness raising, information sharing, planning and design, implementation, and

perhaps most importantly, evaluation (Linham & Nicholls, 2010). Noting gaps or room for improvement in

some areas, the following recommendations are outlined for consideration by the respective stakeholders

in addressing the issue of mainstreaming climate change:

Work with relevant tourism stakeholders to develop and implement the existing sustainable tourism

plans with attention paid to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, and with a focus on

diversification of the tourism product toward the interior: Tourism infrastructure is currently

concentrated in the coastal zone where the risk of storm surge, tsunami and coastal erosion is greatest.

These hazards will degrade the tourism product (e.g. beach, coral reef) and also expose tourists to higher

risks than would occur if they were staying at a place of accommodation in the interior of the country.

Climate change threatens to degrade and possibly destroy the Caribbean tourism industry and impacts in

one country may be transferred to other countries, since tourists often view the region as one destination.

As such, Belize must work to continue building tourism infrastructure in the interior and there is potential

for marketing a more environmentally-friend tourism product. Furthermore, the integration of feasible and

flexible adaptive and risk reduction strategies is paramount to building the resilience of the large cross-

section of tourism players, and the tourism sector at large to the impacts of climate change. Input would

come from numerous sectors, but key stakeholders in this effort would include the Belize Tourism Board,

the Belize Hotel Association and NEMO.

Integrate SLR considerations in local land use and development planning, with special consideration for

vulnerable coastal areas and tourism hot-spots to reduce or avoid impacts: This will require national-level

consultation with land use management, coastal zone management and tourism stakeholders – in

particular, the Housing and Planning Department, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment

(Department of Environment, CZMAI, Land and Surveys Department), the Belize Tourism Board and the

Ministry of Tourism – to utilise the broad scale results of this study and higher-resolution local scale studies

to guide reviews and updates of official land use and tourism master plans. Additionally, the Government of

Belize should:

Commence coastal adaptation planning early, by working with local stakeholders on the

development of coastal protection systems. The detailed local level planning for coastal protection

needs to begin within the next 15 years if the environmental assessments, financing, land

acquisition, and construction is to be completed by mid-Century, so that the economic benefits of

damage prevention are optimised.

Consider the development of official SLR risk maps to further guide future coastal development.

Assess all projects that involve building, maintaining, or modifying infrastructure in coastal areas at

risk from SLR and ensure that the new development plans take the most recent estimates of SLR

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from the scientific community into account. The cost of reconstruction after flood damage is often

higher than modifying structures in the design phase.

Work with insurance companies to develop policies that take into account the unique risks faced by

coastal areas which will enable landowners to properly assess coastal protection and retreat

options.

Provide subsidies for appropriate and sustainable adaptation measures that will result in long term

economic benefits for both the tourism sector and the country as a whole.

Mainstream gender and poverty into climate change and related policies: Gender and poverty

considerations are not specifically recognised within the Government of Belize Policy on Adaptation to

Global Climate Change (Government of Belize, 2008). Challenges of poverty reduction and climate change

need to be addressed in a coherent and synergistic way. It needs to draw on the lessons and progress in

development policy and particularly the recognition of the importance of gender differences if policies are

to be sustainable, effective and benefit all sectors of the population. Higher poverty rates and lower labour

force participation and employment of women and poor women in particular; contribute to their overall

vulnerability(Buvinic, Vega, Bertrand, Urban, Grynspan, & Truitt, 1999).

Achieving sustainable and effective responses to climate change, therefore, requires attention to the

underlying power relations and gender equalities which create vulnerability both to poverty and climate

hazards and a more gender-sensitive approach which takes into account and evaluates the differing and

potentially inequitable access which men and women have to economic, ecological, social and human

resources, institutions, governance and infrastructure. Jointly supported initiatives (listed below) with

participation from entities such as the Women’s and Human Services Departments, NEMO and the National

Climate Change Committee can be implemented in support of gender mainstreaming:

Provide gender disaggregated data and evidence on the impacts of climate change to show how

men and women are being affected differently by climate related changes. This could be done for

direct impacts, such as extreme weather conditions or disasters, water shortages, food insecurity or

changes in land use. This could also be done for indirect secondary impacts, such as access to

energy, changes in employment opportunities, sectoral impacts (e.g. agriculture, tourism and

fisheries) and increased migration or conflict.

Conduct a gender analysis on the social impacts of current policies on adaptation and mitigation

and how they may benefit or adversely affect men and women in different ways. Even when

policies have clear gender-related statements or objectives, rarely do they have the mechanisms in

place to integrate gender at a programme level or to measure the impact of the policies from a

gendered perspective. Economic cost-benefit analyses often overlook the social implications and

there is a lack of methodology for measuring the gendered impacts of current policies.

Improve institutional capacity in key agencies to implement gender sensitive policy or gather

gendered data. This is needed due to the lack of gender experts involved in policy design and

implementation around climate change; the lack of awareness or gender training of key staff in

ministries and statistics offices responsible for climate change data and policies; and a general

disconnect between the reality of poor people’s (and particularly under-represented women’s)

lives and policy makers.

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6.1.3. Building and Strengthening Information Sharing and Communication

Systems and Networks

It is essential that a tri-partite approach is taken when developing the full action plans for the

recommended strategies given. A number of relevant studies have been undertaken in Belize in the past,

but the recommendations are frequently not implemented for a number of reasons, lack of resources being

commonly cited. By establishing a framework by which government, private sector entities and civil society

can work more effectively together, the probability of implementation and widespread ‘buy-in’ to the

numerous initiatives increases. It is not possible for any one group to achieve the changes that are needed

alone and government must ensure that national policy goals and challenges faced are shared so that

solutions can be discussed and negotiated between groups. Gaining support for initiatives is also facilitated

through education and awareness, Section 6.1.4. For instance, government can:

Undertake broad consultation on the BEST (2009) recommendations for water resources:

Particular consideration should be given to: (a) water conservancy management systems and the

protection of watersheds; (b) the development of efficient irrigation practices in agriculture; (c) the

promotion of tourism inland as an alternative to coastal tourism; and (d) the incorporation of

climate change into tourism management plans.

The data and information produced through the various initiatives described in Section 6.1.1 must be

communicated and made available through networks in each sector and across sectors. This is especially

true for the idea of a green economy that will require the restructuring of economic systems towards

establishing a low-carbon society. It is thus important to document and communicate progress to create

positive opinion in large parts of society.

National level data should be made available to regional clearing houses where they exist and, where they

don’t exist, thought should be given to establishing them. Some areas for consideration include:

Epidemiology data with climate signals: Moreno (2006) has suggested the establishment of a

central clearing house containing information on diseases whose transmission are modified by

climate change as well relevant environmental data. Implementation of such a collective

information centre could be valuable in the exchanging of information in the Caribbean. The

Caribbean Epidemiology Centre (CAREC) is one regional institution that has summarised such

statistics, but it is noted that some statistics may be politically sensitive, resulting in some

resistance to this recommendation (Moreno, 2006). Other regional institutions that might be suited

to housing such a repository include CEHI, CCCCC and UWI.

Biodiversity data: The creation of a user-friendly online database, similar to BERDS, for the region’s

biological data will benefit not only environmental managers but all other economic sectors that

rely on natural resources (agriculture, fisheries, tourism). In order to address the limited human

resources that constrain data collection, Section 6.1.1, the e-repository will take the form of a wiki

allowing the database to be populated by researchers, students, eco-tourists and the general

population. The regional e-repository for biodiversity will:

o Integrate biodiversity research facilities in the region

o Facilitate the sharing of data

o Encourage public participation in data collection and monitoring

The Caribbean Marine Atlas is one example of a suitable online database that could be expanded

and further developed to include this type of information

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6.1.4. Climate Change Education and Awareness

The previous section on communication and networking relates directly to the sharing of information to

assist decision making and planning. However, without education and awareness raising on climate change

and the likely impacts of climate change on specific sectors the information shared will be meaningless. The

research in a number of sectors highlighted specific areas that need additional efforts in education and

awareness:

Disaster risk reduction and emergency preparedness at the household level;

Water conservation, rain water harvesting and other collection techniques for households, as well

as water treatment;

The importance of energy and the role of emissions in climate change, specifically knowledge about

energy, its generation, and the economic and environmental importance of energy;

Climate-related diseases and health promotion, particularly malaria and diarrhoea and the

development of linkages with the agricultural sector to reduce malnutrition and improve food

security. Controlling malaria, dengue fever, gastroenteritis and other food and water borne

diseases can greatly reduce the financial burden to the health sector;

Impacts and costs of SLR to communities, but also to the public and private sectors, because of

these damages have implications for livelihoods and sustainable development.

Due to the interrelated nature of some environmental issues and natural processes collaboration between

different sectors can reinforce learning amongst the general public while also providing synergistic benefits

for resources The International Federation of the Red Cross has a strong history of effective work with

community capacity building and disaster risk reduction activities. NEMO, by working with the Red Cross,

can develop a culturally appropriate communication plan that will not only communicate the vital

information Belizean need to reduce their vulnerability, but be in a format that individuals will listen to and

take note of. Through the use of music or mobile phone technology, the communication strategy can reach

a wide range of persons, especially during emergency situations. Research at the community level revealed

that not all persons have cell phones, so this technique requires complementary messages to be

transmitted through more traditional mediums, radio and television. In addition, building awareness of the

issues mentioned above can be better embraced when the message is conveyed by a respected figure.

Children and youth have been found to be good transmitters of basic environmental information.

Education and awareness initiatives should not only be limited to locals but should include visitors to Belize

as well. Short videos encouraging visitors and residents to be more conscious of their impacts on the fragile

ecosystems can be shown during in-bound international flights and on local TV networks. The films will

focus on positive actions that individuals can take to minimize negative impacts on the environment by

decreasing energy and water consumption and wastage and by highlighting good environmental practices

and promoting awareness of national laws. Film production will engage as much local expertise as possible

as, including actors, cameramen, and technicians, amongst others.


Belize is a water-rich country yet issues exist in the distribution and management of resources. The priority

must be the development of mechanisms for integrated water resources management, which would then

facilitate the implementation of other recommended initiatives.

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Short Term Actions

Consider the development of mechanisms to facilitate Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)

directives outlined in the National Integrated Water Resources Management Policy for Belize: The basis

of IWRM is that different users of water are interdependent: IWRM encourages a move away from a uni-

sectoral water management approach to one which allows participatory decision-making including

different user groups. Such an approach allows an equitable management of water resources, which will be

particularly important with declining water resources under climate change. The main components of

IWRM are: managing water resources at the lowest possible level (at the river basin or watershed scale);

optimising supply and managing demand; providing equitable access to water resources through

participatory and transparent governance and management; establishing improved and integrated policy,

regulatory and institutional frameworks; utilising an inter-sectoral approach to decision making; integrating

management means that multiple benefits are received from a single intervention. The National Integrated

Water Resources Management Policy provides the basis, and announces the development of action plans

for implementing IWRM, which requires that platforms be developed to allow different stakeholders to

work together. Institutional and legislative frameworks at all stages of water planning and management

should be revisited, assessed and, if necessary, amended.

Assess the possibility of broad scale implementation of rain water harvesting, localised waste water

recycling schemes and legislation, including for agricultural irrigation: Reducing the required fresh water

for household and hotel use would alleviate pressure on groundwater systems. There are a number of

sectors/activities that demand considerable quantities of water, for instance the tourism industry and in

particular, cruise ships. Belize Water Services and the Department of Public Health, with input from private

sector entities (e.g. specialists in water resource recovery) can investigate the feasibility of recycling waste

water from the domestic and tourism use to produce irrigation water, either for agriculture or the irrigation

of golf courses. This would alleviate the pressure on groundwater and reduce the need for desalination.

Water infrastructure should be developed to increase access to sanitation facilities and safe water, and

reduce vulnerability during drought events and after major storms and hurricanes: In particular, (i) water

storage should be encouraged through incentives and every new building should have its own stored water

and rainwater harvesting infrastructure; (ii) the viability of additional storage facilities should be assessed,

allowing improved access to potable water in different communities; (iii) losses in water distribution should

be reduced through pipe replacement; and (iv) water distribution infrastructure should be developed to

include communities currently without access. These efforts would require input from Belize Water

Services, Public Utilities Commission, Department of Public Health and the Housing and Planning

Department.

Medium Term Actions

Develop pilot projects to assess artificial recharge of aquifers and conduct feasibility studies explore the

possibility of additional projects: Low lying aquifers in Belize, particularly coastal areas and those of the

Cayes, are vulnerable to contamination through poor sewer construction or the intrusion of salt water. As

suggested in the Initial National Communication on Climate Change to the UNFCCC, injection of water into

aquifers could buffer against the effects of saline intrusion. Aquifers act as large reservoirs of fresh water

which reduce vulnerability during periods of drought. Upstream injection increases recharge volumes and

downstream recharge increases the barrier between saline and freshwater. Maintaining sufficient

groundwater recharge would reduce the risk of saline intrusion and help to maintain water quality. In this

regard, the BWS could investigate the feasibility of this option, in conjunction with the Ministry of Health,

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as the source of water used for artificial recharge should be selected carefully to avoid issues with nitrates

entering groundwater.


Consistent with the issues and future directions outlined in proposals for the National Energy Policy, the

following section suggests a set of measures to reduce energy consumption and emissions in tourism:

Short Term Actions

Define national action plans: Once national policy goals have been agreed upon for tourism, an action plan

to avoid energy use, increase efficiency and to use a greater share of renewable energy sources needs to be

written and implemented. This plan needs to combine savings potentials (energy management; cf. Gössling,

2010) as well as technological restructuring. Valuable information on the potential of wind- and solar

power can for instance be found in Bishop and Amaratunga (2008), Chen et al., (1990), Chen et al., (1994)

and Headley (1998). The action planning should reflect on the assessment of Belize’s energy systems as a

priority (OAS, 2011), especially in the case of future renewable energy sources that depend on climate and

priority coastal infrastructure such as power plants. Planning activities should also incorporate outputs

from climate change modelling scenarios and involve energy sector authorities (e.g. Geology and Petroleum

Department, Public Utilities Commission) and national and regional specialists (e.g. BEST) with support from

international organisations where necessary.

Medium Term Actions

Pursue the concept of a ‘Green Economy’: The benefits of these efforts will be immense: there is a very

low likelihood of energy prices decreasing over the longer-term, and a very high likelihood that these will in

fact increase. Building a green tourism economy is likely to lead to a renewed cycle of growth, while making

the country less dependent on imports of resources, and in particular oil. Many of the principles of a Green

Economy will already have been addressed in the National Energy Policy discussions and development

process, even though it is not presented as such. However, a Green Economy reaches beyond energy

considerations alone and includes efforts to adjust procurement procedures, level the playing field for

greener products, removal of counter-productive subsidies etc.

Stabilise energy pricing to influence energy use and emissions: Taxes, emission trading and other

economic instruments are needed to steer energy use and emissions, conveying clear, long-term market

signals. It is important for these economic instruments to significantly increase the costs of fossil fuels and

emissions. The Ministry of Finance and Public Utilities Commission should investigate this option. Price

levels also need to be stable (not declining below a given level), progressive (increasing at a significant rate

per year) and foreseeable (be implemented over longer time periods), to allow companies to integrate

energy costs in long-term planning and decision-making. Recommendations by the Public Utilities

Commission to reduce energy prices in Belize are contrary to this and should be re-considered.

Use regulation to stimulate changes and adaptation: While carbon pricing is the most efficient tool to

stimulate behavioural change and changes in production, market failures justify additional policy

intervention (see also Francis et al., 2007). Energy-intense forms of tourism and transport as well as

behavioural change can be addressed through other measures, such as speed limits, bans of jet skis, quads,

or other motorised transport at the destination level. Moreover, regulation can include building codes and

other minimum standards to reduce emissions, also with a view on adaptation. Actual enforcement of

existing environmental regulations needs to be ensured.

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Create incentives for low-carbon technology use: The introduction of low-carbon technology needs to be

supported through incentive structures. An ecological tax reform, for instance, could shift tax burdens from

labour to energy and natural resources and thus “reward” users of low-carbon technology. Other incentives

could include financial support, reward mechanisms or awards. There is also a range of examples of bonus-

malus systems in tourism and transport, rewarding those choosing to pollute less.


Medium Term Actions

Crop-growing for Climate Change: CARIBSAVE recommends a “Crop-growing for Climate Change” project

to build Belizean farmers’ capacity to grow produce using good agricultural practices and to introduce them

to new technologies that will improve the quality and yield of their crops under existing pedoclimatic

conditions. Delivery of training courses should be farm-based, practical and should target organised groups

such as women farmers, youth and farmers’ associations based in agricultural districts. This programme

should enhance the work conducted through the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries Extension

Programme.

Rural Education Agricultural Programme: A second recommendation is the revival of the “Rural Education

Agricultural Programme” which existed in previous years. The Rural Education and Agriculture Programme

(REAP) originally initiated in response to perceived deficiencies in the rural primary schools of Belize. The

scheme involved practical applications on REAP school farms with gardens, coops, hutches, etc. With

Collaboration from the Ministries of Agriculture and Fisheries, and Education and Youth, this medium can

be used to revive youth interest in agriculture, as an avenue for increasing agricultural knowledge and skills

among young people and an opportunity to build entrepreneurial skills for at-risk youth.

6.5. Human Health

Medium Term Actions

Build up a supply of public health resources for the surveillance, prevention and control of Vector Borne

Diseases: Gubler (2002) has stated that the resurgence of diseases and particularly vector borne diseases

has been “compounded by complacency about infectious diseases in general and vector-borne diseases in

particular and a lack of public health resources for research, surveillance, prevention and control

programs.” In Belize, it has been noted that “the intensity and quality of data collection and recording,

varies over time and among health regions” (Government of Belize, 2011). This has the outputs that can be

derived from modelling dengue fever occurrence. It is therefore recommended that the Integrated Vector

Management (IVM) Programme approach of the WHO be adopted and spearheaded by the Ministry of

Health, with input from the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment.

The items of the approach are listed as follows which were taken from the Report of WHO consultation on

IVM (WHO, 2007):

1. Advocacy, social mobilization and legislation

2. Collaboration within the health sector and with other sectors

3. Integrated approach

4. Evidence-based decision-making

5. Capacity-building

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The Caribbean region, as part of the WHO Region of the Americas has the potential to chart a course that

includes IVM in diseases that have a climate change signal. Those that have been highlighted for Belize

include malaria and dengue fever. In this region limited human resources, poor vector and disease

surveillance are the major challenges to adopting an IVM approach.

Long Term Actions

Improve the use of technology in the Health Sector: There are various aspects of technology that can be

developed in the health sector.

1. An Early Disease Warning Systems that considers temperature signatures for vector borne diseases,

however these must be validated (Chen et al., 2006) and be site-specific (Ebi et al., 2006). Other

signatures could be further researched such as the use of the pre-seasonal treatment (Chadee,

2009).

2. More reliable water storage and distribution will provide the population with quality water and

protect against numerous sanitation problems that Belize is vulnerable to. Increased use of

irrigation technology for agriculture will also decrease the dependence on rain-fed irrigation and

reduce the vulnerability to drought conditions.


Medium Term Actions

Improve the management and resilience of Marine Protected Areas and fish sanctuaries in Belize: Belize’s

MPA system is among the best in the world, but it is suffering from uneven funding and management. To

avoid a continuing decline in the health of coral reefs and fish populations in MPAs, Belize should increase

overall investment, improve fee collection, strengthen monitoring and enforcement efforts and establish a

permanent source of funding to support the valuable MPA system. Strategic planning at the system level is

also needed to address disparities and gaps in the current structure. The government, private sector, NGO

entities and communities with interest in the MPAs should come together to create a strategy for:

establishing a more effective fish sanctuary management and enforcement system for coastal

communities;

for enhancing the capacity of resource managers and users to be more resilient to climate change;

and

establishing a sustainable finance mechanism for supporting fish sanctuary management.

The strategy should increase the involvement of the tourism sector in supporting community-based MPAs,

as well as provide opportunities for alternative livelihoods and technologies for public education. Some

local MPAs already have strong and well-established systems for monitoring and management in place.

MPA sites without these structures can also learn from the experiences of more established MPA

management programmes.

Mangrove Restoration and Protection: Reforestation of the mangrove stands will protect coastal areas and

also improve the health of fish nurseries and coral reefs thus benefitting the livelihoods of those engaged in

marine-based activities. Proposed MPAs will benefit from the presence of mangrove trees, which filter

pollutants and provide protection to fish and crustaceans allowing them to increase in size and abundance.

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The Riley Encased Methodology (REM) has proven successful in Belize and overcomes some of the

difficulties in mangrove rehabilitation in exposed locations. The Ministry of Natural Resources and the

Environment can promote an initiative with local NGOs and CBOs who can implement a network of projects

at the community level.

Incorporate climate change and biodiversity conservation into the primary, secondary and tertiary school

curricula: one of the shortcomings in the country’s adaptive capacity has been identified as a shortage of

trained personnel in biodiversity management. The Government has reduced its support for tertiary level

education and the cost of seeking such education outside of the country is prohibitive for many. Belize, like

many other countries of the Region, are challenged to meet commitments to MEAs and to sustainably

manage biodiversity because of this lack of human resources. Research on climate change and

development of technologies to monitor, mitigate and adapt to climate change are hampered by lack of

adequate data, infrastructure development and trained human expertise. The Ministry of Education and

Youth in tandem with departments in the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment should seek

to incorporate climate change and biodiversity issues into school curricula starting at the primary level will

help to improve public awareness, while building adaptive capacity through knowledge and training. Doing

so at the primary, secondary and tertiary levels will encourage students to view environmental

management as a viable career choice and address the lack of trained personnel in this field.

Long Term Actions

Plan and implement development sensibly: The Government needs to enforce existing land-use and

development regulations in the coastal zone. Minimizing the loss of mangroves along the shoreline will be

increasingly important, as they provide critical habitat and protect the coast from storms. Longer-term

tourism and development strategies should incorporate the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs and

mangroves. For instance, decisions on development permits, sewage and waste disposal regulations and

the balance between cruise and overnight tourism should all include consideration of potential impacts on

the flow of benefits from coastal resources.


and Settlements

Short Term Actions

Conduct a thorough cost-benefit analysis of coastal protection at a local level: Cost-benefit analysis of

coastal protection will be informed by the estimated cost of damage to specific infrastructure and

properties. The specific location of infrastructure is important for estimating impacts to a high level of

fidelity. Similarly, property values are highly dependent on exact location, for example in some areas the

most expensive property values may be on the coast, whereas in others they may be located on a hillside.

A detailed analysis of property prices by location is required as part of local level studies. The Government

of Belize, local resort owners and local building authorities are encouraged to collaborate with members of

the research community to help develop a cost benefit analysis of coastal protection. In addition to refining

estimates of costs to rebuild infrastructure (particularly in areas with high-density coastal development),

there is an important need to investigate the response of international tourists and the private sector to

the impacts of coastal erosion to test adaptation strategies in the tourism sector. By completing a cost-

benefit analysis, decision makers will able to identify the best adaptation options to adopt and can begin to

move forward in reducing the vulnerability of settlements and infrastructures in vulnerable areas.

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Medium Term Actions

Complete a focused analysis of the vulnerability of secondary and tertiary economies to SLR and

determine the economic impacts of these damages for the tourism sector: Tourism infrastructure is

vulnerable in Belize. With tourism contributing a large proportion to the national economy, the capacity of

the economy to absorb and recover from proportionately higher economic losses in that sector is expected

to be low. Determining the secondary and tertiary economic impacts of damages to the tourism sector and

possible adaptation strategies for Belize should be a priority for future research. This will enable the

identification of the degree to which the economy of Belize and its citizens are economically and socially

vulnerable to SLR. In the event that this study finds tourism to be economically vulnerable to the impacts

of SLR, then action plans could be developed to diversify the economy and provide training and tools to

help workers transition to other sectors that may be less vulnerable.

Assess the adaptive capacity of the tourism sector to SLR: Tourism is the single most important sector in

Belize. Given the close proximity of the tourism infrastructure to the coast, it is highly dependent on the

attractiveness of the natural coastal environment, which has been shown to be vulnerable to SLR. More

detailed analysis of the impacts of SLR for major tourism resorts, critical beach assets and supporting

infrastructure (e.g. transportation) is needed to accurately assess the implications for inundation and

erosion protection. A necessary part of this evaluation is to identify the land that can be used for tourism

infrastructure and future development under a managed retreat response to SLR.

Long Term Actions

Review and develop policies and legal framework to support coordinated retreat from high-risk coastal

areas: The Government of Belize must review existing policy and legal frameworks to assess the

responsibilities of the state and landowners for the decommissioning of coastal properties damaged by the

impacts of SLR. The Government should also examine the utilisation of adaptive development permits that

will allow development based on current understanding of SLR, but stipulate the conditions for longer-term

coastal retreat if sea level increases to a specified level. Current coastal set-back regulations need to be

reassessed in light of new SLR projections to ensure that new developments are not built in vulnerable

coastal areas.


Following the national review for the Hazard Mitigation Plan, many strengths and weaknesses have been

identified in Belize and in NEMO particularly. The following recommendations are complementary to those

and in some cases add further detail in an effort to enhance vulnerability and risk reduction efforts as well

as permitting for effective climate change adaptation.

Medium Term Actions

Conduct capacity building and technical training programs for NEMO employees so that the current

technical deficiencies can be remedied and skills gained. To achieve CDEMA’s goals under the

Comprehensive Disaster Management Strategy and Plan, the prioritisation of technical training within the

Participating States’ disaster offices should be encouraged. While Belize has good data on vulnerabilities

and hazards from recent studies and assessments, it is also important to maintain personnel with the skills

to update those databases. Therefore, this recommendation is to build capacity at the local and national

level. In this way, the NEMO and their district disaster committees can manage risks better and also have

an understanding of the current and changing vulnerability in communities across Belize.

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Lead the way for the Tsunami Early Warning System integration in the Caribbean region. Although other

countries in the region have started planning and testing tsunami early warning systems, full integration is

needed. Belize faces increased risk due to the earthquake risk in Central America. Belize also has an

opportunity for cooperation with a regional body, the CCCCC. Opportunities for collaboration and

partnership should be explored with the goal of sharing resources, equipment, tools and knowledge for the

improvement of hazard risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Belize and the wider Caribbean.

Long Term Actions

Update building regulations and hire building inspectors, in permanent positions, with the responsibility

of reviewing all construction across the country. Across the Caribbean housing structures are highly

vulnerable to damages from disasters such as hurricanes and tropical storms. A regional standard on

building materials and practices would help to reduce losses to individual families and also take some of the

pressure off of shelters because this would mean that some people would be able to stay in their own

homes during emergencies. Belize should certainly continue to assist with the development of a regional

code, however, since national regulations or building codes do exist, the problem is actually one of

enforcement. NEMO, along with the Central Building Authority must collaborate to conduct a needs

assessment with the objective of identifying financial resource availability, personnel requirements that

would improve enforcement and physical and technical requirements for hiring more building inspectors.


Strategies are intended to contribute to development objectives (including poverty reduction) at all levels

within the country, based on the Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity assessment. More specifically, the

strategies will address the following:

1. Promotion of climate-resilient livelihoods strategies and capacity building for adaptive capacity and

action planning.

2. DRR strategies to reduce the effects of climate related impacts, particularly on vulnerable households

and tourism-related livelihoods.

3. Capacity development for local civil society and Governmental institutions so that they can provide

better support to communities, households and individuals in their adaptation efforts.

4. Advocacy and social mobilisation to address the underlying causes of vulnerability, such as poor

governance, lack of control over resources, or limited access to basic services.

During the consultations, community residents highlighted various strengths and gaps in their ability to

adapt to climate change and also put forward recommendations to increase their resilience. Many of these

recommendations are inter-related, so that concerted effort on one area should have a positive feedback

effect in other areas.

Short Term Actions

Promote the use of kitchen/micro-gardens to improve self-sufficiency: Very little agriculture is practiced

in Placencia resulting in heavy reliance on imports, which comes at a very high price. Community and/or

household gardens would help to reduce household food costs and provide opportunities for residents to

supply other households, hotels and restaurants with fresh produce that may be in surplus. There is a

concern that the soil composition would not allow for crops to be cultivated. In this instance, community

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residents will need guidance and advice on the best methods to use to overcome this obstacle (e.g. using

plastic containers/drums with soil to plant smaller crops).

Promote efforts to reduce pollution and improve solid waste management: There are many concerns

regarding the pollution and solid waste disposal issues that plague the community and surrounding natural

environment. While plastic disposal is harder to manage, recycling efforts should be implemented or

amplified, if already existing, to reduce the amount of waste which may eventually clog drains and litter the

marine environment. The use of biodegradable or reusable materials should be substituted for plastic

where possible. Pollution of the lagoon and marine environment is believed to stem from the presence of

shrimp farms along the coastline, which may be dumping their effluent in these areas. Regulatory controls

for the treatment of such effluent exist, but are not properly enforced. Given the importance of the marine

environment to several livelihoods in the community, it is vital that they are protected. As such, greater

efforts should be placed on regulating the disposal practices of the shrimp farms and exploring more

suitable, less damaging alternatives for disposal.

Medium Term Actions

Re-establish once common practices in water catchment and energy conservation in Placencia: Rainwater

harvesting would provide households in the community with an alternative source of water for non-potable

uses (for toilets, irrigation, washing cars, etc...) Rainwater harvesting efforts should not only be limited to

the household and community level, but should expand to include large commercial, industrial and

administrative buildings. Consideration can also be given to implementing energy saving practices (e.g.

using fluorescent light bulbs) widely. These activities will have multiple results, but most importantly

resource conservation and less demand on the public supply, which also translates to less expenditure on

public amenities.

Infrastructural improvement actions: Residents are concerned that the only access road to and from the

community is extremely vulnerable to flooding and in the event that the bridge is inundated, the entire

community is relatively cut off from the remainder of the country, unless water transport can be provided.

A recommendation has been put forward to assess the current condition of the access road/bridge to

determine if any remedial actions can be taken to resolve the poor drainage issue. This particular issue

needs to be taken into strong consideration, given the implications for the community if flooding becomes

a more frequent occurrence. Residents also noted that the sewage systems need to be improved, which

falls under the broader scope of infrastructural improvements.

Develop an emergency response plan for fishers: There is no facility for small vessel storage or shelter in

the event of inclement weather. Currently, fishers have resolved to removing the stern from the water

(instead of the whole structure, since it is the heaver part of the vessel) to protect against the likelihood of

sinking. Assistance is needed for this group to source and acquire the necessary equipment which can be

used to haul vessels out of the water in preparation for storm activity. An area will also need to be

designated for storing these vessels. This will be an expensive venture, but boats and related assets are

very crucial for fishermen and boat tour operators. Any damages or destruction expenses these two groups

significantly, interrupts their livelihood activities and results in a loss of income.

Improve the structural integrity of buildings that are used as provisional shelters: Strong and durable

public buildings are normally used as provisional hurricane shelters in the event that members of the public

feel unsafe in their own dwellings and wish to take shelter elsewhere. This is especially the case with low-

to middle-income households whose housing structures are perceptibly less able to withstand physical

hurricane impacts. Structural assessments and repairs should be conducted on buildings used as hurricane

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shelters in the area to improve their integrity and minimise possible damage and discomfort of occupants

during a hurricane.

Identify opportunities for community-level disaster management activities that can be implemented

through collaboration between the National Emergency Management Organisation (NEMO), the District

Disaster Committee (for the Stan Creek District) and the local community: Community based disaster

management groups or organisations can be effective mechanisms for engaging and directing entire

communities in all stages of disaster management: preparation, mitigation, response and recovery; and

acting as a liaison body between national emergency and disaster management entities and the

community. A network of organisations with responsibility for disaster management at the community level

is becoming a popular strategy amongst Caribbean countries and has been highly recognised on previous

occasions for quick response and efforts in minimising hazard impacts at the community level, thereby

reducing the demand and strain on national response resources.

Disaster management falls under the purview of NEMO and the District Committee, but there is no

community disaster group. The establishment of the disaster group in Placencia will help build community

cohesion, while at the same time increasing the community’s resilience to weather-related hazards. This

group can also assume responsibility for ensuring that all existing emergency protocols pertaining to the

community are executed properly and as needed. Relationships can be built with other organisations such

as the Belize Red Cross Society and emergency service providers to facilitate training and education

activities. Further to this, a needs assessment should be undertaken to determine resource gaps in the

community and funding sought to support community level disaster mitigation initiatives. These might take

the form of tree planting on unstable slopes, construction of gabion walls, clearing of drains, development

of early warning systems and evacuation planning. Outside of Government support, the community can

explore options from non-governmental and international aid organisations which sponsor overall

community development programmes.

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7. CONCLUSION

7.1. Climate Modelling

Recent and future changes in climate in Belize have been explored using a combination of observations and

climate model projections. Whilst this information can provide some very useful indications of the changes

to the characteristics of regional climate that might be expected under a warmer global climate, it must be

interpreted with due attention to its limitations.

Limited spatial and temporal coverage restricts the deductions that can be made regarding the

changes that have already occurred. Those trends that might be inferred from a relatively short

observational record may not be representative of a longer term trend, particularly where inter-

annual or multi-year variability is high. Gridded datasets, from which estimates of country-scale

observed changes are made, are particularly sparse in their coverage over much of the Caribbean,

because spatial averages draw on data from only a very small number of local stations combined

with information from more remote stations.

Whilst climate models have demonstrable skill in reproducing the large-scale characteristics of the

global climate dynamics, there remain substantial deficiencies that arise from limitations in

resolution imposed by available computing power and deficiencies in scientific understanding of

some processes. Uncertainty margins increase when moving from continental/regional scale to the

local scale as donein these studies. The limitations of climate models have been discussed in the

context of tropical storms/hurricanes and SLR in the earlier sections of this report. Other key

deficiencies in climate models that will also have implications for this work include:

Difficulties in reproducing the characteristics of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

which exerts an influence of the inter-annual and multi-year variability in climate in the

Caribbean and on the occurrence of tropical storm and hurricanes.

Deficiencies in reliably simulating tropical precipitation, particularly the position of the

Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which drives the seasonal rainfalls in the tropics.

Limited spatial resolution restricts the representation of many of the smaller Caribbean

Islands, even in the relatively high resolution Regional Climate Models.

A combination of GCM and RCM projections are used in the investigations of climate change for a country

and at a destination in order to make use of the information about uncertainty that can be gained from a

multi-model ensemble, together with the higher-resolution simulations that are only currently available

from two sets of model simulations. Further information about model uncertainty at the local level might

be drawn if additional regional model simulations based on a range of differing GCMs and RCMs were

generated for the Caribbean region in the future.

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aquifers found in calcareous rock (Tollner, 2007). The main source of freshwater in rural areas is

predominantly groundwater, where approximately 95% of freshwater is extracted from groundwater

supplies (Frutos, 2003). In general, access to safe water is limited, particularly in rural areas (BEST, 2009;

WMB, 2011). Belize Water Services Ltd. (BWS), is the sole service provider in Belize, providing water and

sewerage to 46,610 (BWS, 2010) and accounts for an approximate demand of some 150 million US gallons

of water per month (BWS, 2009). Most villages are otherwise serviced by a village water board and some

also have access to a water tower (Mustafa and Reeder, 2009; WMB, 2011). Water not provided through

piping is usually collected rainwater or river water treated with bleach (WMB, 2011).

Tourism is the largest contributor to GDP in Belize. Tourist expenditures reached BZ $400 million dollars in

2006, which is approximately 16.8% of GDP (BTB, 2008). Combined, tourists visiting by cruise ships and

overnight visitors reached almost one million in 2006. The largest tourism destinations in Belize are

Ambergris Caye, Caye Caulker and the Cayo District. All three locations are serviced by the Belize Water

Services Ltd. (BWS). Most of the hotels, resorts and guesthouses that are not supported by the BWS use

rainwater as one of their main water sources for drinking and washing (Belize.com, 2011).

Belize is a country well endowed with water resources. However, recent issues with water scarcity and

water quality have become more commonplace as various stresses on water resources increase. Key issues

with water vulnerability in Belize are the uneven distribution of water resources. The southern region has

the lowest population, with the highest amount of freshwater availability, whereas the central and

northern regions both have much large populations and much less water resources (BEST, 2009). Several

Cayes have become popular tourist destinations but have low availabilities of freshwater.

Groundwater has been declining steadily in recent years, due to several factors. Some of these factors

include intensive uses of water resources by sectors such as agriculture and industry and a growing tourist

industry (BEST 2009). However, the amount of decline has not been quantified as it is unclear what the

extent of underground aquifers is (ECLAC, 2006; BEST, 2009). In groundwater aquifers that are in use,

particularly in coastal aquifers, issues of over abstraction are important to take into account. Groundwater

sources are reported to be low during dry season, which leads to an increase in the possibility of salt water

intrusion and thus the up taking of brackish water rather than freshwater.

The following recommendations are made:

1. Assess the possibility of broad scale implementation of rain water harvesting, localised waste water

recycling schemes and legislation, including for agricultural irrigation.

2. Water infrastructure should be developed to increase access to sanitation facilities and safe water

and reduce vulnerability during drought events and after major storms and hurricanes.

3. Develop pilot projects to assess artificial recharge of aquifers and conduct feasibility studies explore

the possibility of additional projects.

4. Consider the development of mechanisms to facilitate Integrated Water Resources Management

(IWRM).

5. Undertake broad consultation on the BEST (2009) recommendations for water resources.

6. Undertake detailed surveying of groundwater resources and well infrastructure and increase

coordination between the BWS and local village water boards.

7. Undertake public education in water resources.

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There can be little doubt that tourism is an important and growing energy consuming sector in the

Caribbean. If this growth continues, vulnerabilities associated with higher energy prices as well as global

climate policy will grow concomitantly.

Any Caribbean nation’s ambition should thus be to reduce its energy use and to increasingly use renewable

energy produced in the region. In practice, this appears to be hampered by the lack of detailed databases

on energy use by sub-sectors, which is a precondition for restructuring energy systems. To this end, Francis

et al. (2007: 1231) suggest that:

Finally, given the absence of a more detailed database on energy consumption and GDP in

Haiti, Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago, further research can be directed at two important

issues. First, with wider data on energy consumption and GDP (total and sectoral), a

decomposition analysis could be undertaken, which can add value by identifying the main

drivers, a useful approach to the formulation of effective policies.

These insights also apply for other nations. While an energy and emissions database would thus be

paramount to the understanding, monitoring and strategic reduction of greenhouse gases, it also appears

clear that energy demand in all countries could be substantially reduced at no cost, simply because the

tourism sector in particular is wasteful of energy and because carbon management allows for the

restructuring of markets. Furthermore, technological options to develop renewable energy sources exist

and can be backed up financially by involving carbon markets as well as voluntary payments by tourists. In

order to move the tourism sector forward to make use of these potentials, it appears essential that policy

frameworks focusing on regulation, market-based instruments and incentives be implemented.


The state of agriculture and food security in Belize as they relate to climate change revolves around several

key priorities which include:

Diversification of the agricultural economy as a means of reducing reliance on banana revenue

Building local farmers’ capacity to increase food production under existing climatic conditions

Increasing youth involvement in agriculture.

The Government of Belize has demonstrated its commitment to agricultural diversification and research. Its

policies create an enabling environment for dealing with climate change issues. Belizean farmers have

performed creditably in light of existing challenges, but the mission now is to increase levels of food

production, with some measure of consistency and in sufficient quantities to reduce the level of food

insecurity in the country.

7.5. Human Health

The current epidemiological trend involves a decline in communicable disease rates with lower mortality

rates while chronic life style diseases are more commonly reported. The direct and indirect efforts to

address poverty have aided improvements in the health sector. However, there is much room for further

improvements in the health sector as environmental degradation combined with weather related events

have demonstrated the extent to which the sector is vulnerable. By extension this resilience will be

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important in a changing climate and the added unpredictability provided by the possible contributions from

climate change.

The vulnerabilities of human health to climate change in Belize are similar to other Caribbean territories, if

not more complicated due to its size. These include a number of emerging and re-emerging communicable

diseases such as dengue, malaria, gastroenteritis and food- and water- borne illnesses. Based on the

combination of hard data and ‘grey’ data used to inform the vulnerability and adaptive capacity sections of

this report it is very difficult to make definitive statements about the Health Sector of Belize. It is further

evident that these factors impact on multiple sectors, such as water and agriculture sectors as is the case

for many Caribbean nations.

While Belize does not rely as heavily on tourism as other countries in the region, the impact of health on

the tourism sector should be fully evaluated as Belize is dependent on the revenue already it already

receives from the sector and as the Government further develops the sector. Increased research and

validation of data for example with diseases of low but consistent prevalence such as leptospirosis and

Chagas diseases should not be neglected. While it is acknowledged that resources are limited, such

research is crucial in strengthening the base to inform policy and planning and adaptation to new

epidemiological challenges in the future as the climate changes.


Belize is home to a rich and diverse biodiversity and to marine and terrestrial ecosystems that are of global

importance. It forms part of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor, which comprises a network of protected

areas linked by biological corridors, stretching from Mexico to Panamá. Belize has two large blocks of intact

virgin rainforest that are perhaps the last strongholds for species that require large, undisturbed areas for

their long-term survival, such as the jaguar. The Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System, stretching the full

length of the country's coastline, is the largest unbroken coral reef complex in the Western hemisphere and

a World Heritage Site, in recognition of its global importance.

These natural resources are critically important to the economy and communities of Belize and need to be

protected from the increasing pressures placed on from a growing population and from unsustainable

practices. According to a recent economic valuation (Cooper, Burke and Bood, 2009) the value of coral reef-

and mangrove-related fisheries, tourism and shoreline protection services in Belize is estimated to be US

$395 – $559 million per year (As a reference point, Belize’s GDP totalled US $1.3 billion in 2007). The

Government of Belize should be praised for its efforts in managing and protecting its environment and

overcoming many of the challenges associated with being a small country with very limited resources. The

internationally recognized success of Belize’s network of protected areas is largely due to policies that

encourage a participatory approach to governance and resource management and to the active

involvement of many NGOs, CBOs and local stakeholders. It is also helped by innovative financing

mechanisms and institutional frameworks (e.g. PACT) that promote research, international collaboration

and coordinated programmes of education and community participation. Studies have shown that Belize's

protected areas have been extremely effective in protecting the country's forests, with only some 6.4% of

forests inside of legally declared protected areas cleared between 1980 and 2010, compared to over a

quarter of forests outside of protected areas lost between 1980 and 2010. The marine protected areas also

have had some outstanding success, though the enforcement of fisheries laws outside of the protected

areas has been weak. An unusually high frequency of intense storms in the last few years, including

Hurricane Mitch (1998), Hurricane Keith (2000), Hurricane Iris (2001), Hurricane Dean (2007) and Hurricane

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Richard (2010), combined with mass coral bleaching events in 1995 and 1998, have had serious impacts on

the coral reefs, mangroves and beaches.

The projected annual changes in temperature by the 2080s indicate a potential increase spanning 1.0 -

4.1˚C (for the GCM ensemble Regional Climate Model projections driven by ECHAM4 and HadCM3). The

projections also indicate a 32% decrease (RCM driven by EHCAM4; 26% decrease when using driven by

HadCM3) in annual rainfall, with the largest proportional decrease of 67% in JJA. These potentially very

substantial changes in temperature and rainfall will have profound effects on the Belize’s ecosystems and

biodiversity.

Low lying cayes and coastal areas will be very vulnerable to projected SLR and perhaps impossible to save.

In some areas, migration of mangroves and beaches inland may be possible, if the topography and coastal

infrastructure permit it. Efforts to build coastal defences in tourism destinations and urban areas, are

already underway and these should be designed and planned to allow – where and when possible –

ecosystems to continue functioning effectively and providing essential goods and services.

Belize’s impressive commitment to and capacity for, natural resource management are being hampered by

a chronic lack financial resources and by increasing pressures from expanding populations in neighbouring

countries. The impacts of climate change, already visible in the region, are projected to accelerate rapidly

in the coming decades. The ability of ecosystems to adapt to these changes will depend largely on the

magnitude of other stressors that weaken, damage or destroy habitats and species. To reduce these

stressors and build the resilience of its biodiversity, Belize will require a new level of investment and

commitment in environmental management. As a country with a relatively high forest cover and a low

deforestation rate, Belize has significant potential for participation in initiatives such as REDD, which could

provide much needed financial support for forest conservation. Other financing mechanism and adaptation

funds for community-based conservation programmes should be explored as a matter of priority. As the

country that leads that CARICOM region in matters of conservation, the ability of Belize to succeed in this

endeavour is of critical and strategic importance to Belizeans and to Caribbean people as a whole.


and Settlements

With its development along the coast and reliance on coastal resources, the tourism sector in Belize is

vulnerable to climate change and SLR. Tourism, a very large and important sector of the economy, is also

the key activity taking place in the country’s coastal areas. Given the importance of tourism, Belize will be

particularly affected with annual costs as a direct result of SLR. If action is not taken to, the current and

projected vulnerabilities of the tourism sector to SLR, including coastal inundation and increased beach

erosion, will result in significant economic losses for the country and its people. Adaptations to minimize

the vulnerabilities of the Belize will require revisions to development plans and major investment and

policy decisions. These considerations must be based on the best available information regarding the

specific coastal infrastructure and ecosystem resources along the coast, in addition to the resulting

economic and non-market impacts. Decisions regarding where retreat policies should be implemented

versus what should be protected needs to be a priority if Belize is to help curb development in vulnerable

areas and protect vulnerable tourism assets.

The Government of the Belize needs to execute and adhere to the coastal zone policies that aim to regulate

coastal development and also identify and inventory vulnerabilities of coastal lands and infrastructure to

weather and climate related hazards. This work needs to be advanced to include in greater detail the

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implications of and application of climate change adaptation measures and strategies, to ensure that

coastal resources and infrastructure of Belize do not suffer from the consequences of potential increased

SLR. Continued development and an increasing reliance on the tourism sector will only magnify the

vulnerabilities faced, placing additional assets and people at risk, while simultaneously raising the damage

estimates and the costs to protect the coastline. It is vital to recognize the vulnerabilities from current SLR

and SLR induced erosion, as well as to anticipate and prepare for future SLR implications. There is an urgent

need for serious, comprehensive and urgent action to be taken to address the challenges of adapting to SLR

in Belize.


Belize is a country threatened by both hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. The low-lying coastal

region is home to a large population so many people and homes are at risk to storm surges and flooding.

Furthermore, while efforts have been made to move much of the central Government to Belmopan so it is

away from this coastal hazard, there is some risk to continuity. Further risk to the coastal region came after

an earthquake in neighbouring Honduras when a tsunami was predicted. The rest of the country is not

immune to disasters and hazards, but the risks are not as severe nor are they likely to be as frequent.

The management, policy and technology employed within the disaster management system in Belize

demonstrate a solid understanding of the dynamic nature of natural processes. Legislation for hazard

mitigation, building and disaster preparedness and response is fairly comprehensive, although there are

challenges with overlap and further progress is needed to integrated disaster risk management efforts

across sectors. The Hazard Mitigation Policy and Plan have provided vulnerability assessments and

institutional and legislative assessments in recent years. Critical assessments such as this provide Belize

with the information on strengths, weaknesses and gaps in their disaster management system so that they

can improve national efforts in disaster risk reduction and also find synergies in their national climate

change adaptation activities.


Tourism has become a major player in the Belize economy and as such, numerous livelihoods are based in

the industry, which helps to support families and communities near tourism centre. Placencia is one such

community, with fairly rapid tourism growth occurring in the area, with some benefits redounding to some

of the community members.

For a community that depends significantly on the natural resource base, the threat of climate change is a

major concern. The community is well aware and are already observing changes in climate patterns and the

resulting changes in seasons, agricultural production and loss of biodiversity. Tourism is the community

lifeline and any negative impacts on the industry would have ripple effects throughout the community. The

coastal location and geography of the community predisposes it to relatively high susceptibility to hurricane

and storm surge impacts. The community was severely affected in 2001 by Hurricane Iris, with an extended

period of recovery. All livelihoods, especially in the growing tourism sector, were impacted negatively.

Existing social conditions of some residents in Placencia also exacerbate their vulnerability to these events.

Women working in tourism are more likely to be employed in low-paying positions for unskilled labour,

whereas men have a more favourable position in the tourism labour market in general. Home insurance

coverage is particularly low and financial security and support varies with household.

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In the face of climate change and the threat that it poses to Caribbean societies and economies, the

comprehensive integration of poverty, gender and livelihood issues into climate change impact and

vulnerability assessment and planning processes is essential to developing appropriate adaptation

strategies. Preparation and adaptation therefore need to be prioritised for these groups to minimise future

impacts on stability and development. Recommendations put forward to address vulnerability and adaptive

capacity concerns include resource conservation, infrastructural assessments and developments, disaster

management activities and policy reform to incorporate gender and poverty lenses. These are only some of

the activities that can be implemented in the short and long term and will require efforts at all levels and

across sectors to build the resilience of the Placencia community to the impacts of climate change.

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