CLIMATE CHANGE ATLAS NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN NEW YORK

Maria Janowiak New England Climate Change

Response Framework

Louis Iverson Climate Change Tree Atlas

Steve Matthews Climate Change Bird Atlas

How do we get from this? Climate change information is overwhelming!

www.forestadaptation.org/NESAF2015 To this…

Desired Conditions Natural Forest

Dynamics

Wildlife Habitat

Past Management

History

Invasives Timber Sale Revenue

Disturbance: Past + Future

Recreation

Forest Health

And more!! Climate Change

Plan & Project Requirements

Vulnerability Assessment (in prep) Synthesize findings of state/regional assessments and

scientific literature • Identify common areas of agreement regarding ecosystems

and species most likely to be at risk • Describe state-of-knowledge for anticipated changes in climate and response of forest ecosystems

Incorporate results of the Climate Change Tree Atlas and LANDIS for three sub-regions

Climate Change Impacts Several high-quality regional and state assessments exist in New England 1) Longer Growing Season 2) Shorter Winters 3) Potential for Summer Drought 4) CO2 Fertilization 5) Changes in Suitable Habitat 6) Extreme Events 7) Wildfire Risk 8) Forest Pests and Diseases 9) Invasive Plants

Future Climate Change Variability among Projections

Future Climate Change Variability among Projections

Climate Scenarios Used Two scenarios show the range of possible change

• PCM B1: Low emissions scenario + less sensitive GCM

• GFDL A1FI: High emissions + more sensitive GCM

Projections are consistent with other data sets

Think of them like bookends:

Least Projected Change

Most Projected Change

PCM Low emissions (B1)

GFDL High emissions (A1FI)

PCM B1 GFDL A1FI

Annual Average Temperature 2070 to 2099

Future Climate Change Change in 30-year average (°F)

2070-2099 vs. 1971-2000

Emission scenarios developed

and used as inputs

Models projections are

run using GCMs

GCM projections

are downscaled to a smaller

grid scale

Downscaled GCM data and

other info is used as inputs

into impact models

B1 PCM ~3 ° 1/8°

Tree Atlas

General Process

Our Assessments

A1F1 GFDL LANDIS

Future Forest Change

• Tree abundance • Bird abundance • Climate • Environment • Forest density • Species traits

Data

DISTRIB model

Species habitat prediction

Tree and Bird

Atlases

ModFacs • Biological factors • Disturbance factors • Model uncertainty

SHIFT model

Species colonization probabilities

Potential migration by 2100

Possible modified interpretation of

model results

• Management guidelines • Implications and tools

Current and future species management

Potential habitat changes at 2040, 2070,

2100

Iverson et al. 2011 Ecosystems

Modeling Potential Changes in Tree Species Habitats: Multi-stage Modeling

Trees: Forest Inventory -> Importance Value (IV) -> measure of abundance Birds: Breeding Bird Survey -> Incidence -> measure of abundance

Modeled responses

Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA)

• Eastern US extent (37 states) • 134 tree taxa • > 100,000 plots • ~ 3 million tree records

Importance value (IV) for 134 tree species

(Range: 0-100)

Breeding Bird Survey (BBS)

• Eastern US extent (37 states) • 147 bird species • ~ 1000 BBS routes

Incidences

for 147 bird species (Range of incidences: 0-1)

Rate each species model for reliability

Iverson et al. 2011 Ecosystems

Atlas ingredients (DISTRIB model)

www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas

Modifying Factors (ModFacs) We rate biological and disturbance characteristics for positive or negative impacts We also quantify some aspects of uncertainty Goal was to evaluate more realistic outcomes at regional and local levels

Matthews et al. 2011, For. Ecol. Manage.

Time

Climate change pressure and disturbance intensity increases thus altering habitat suitability of species

Current stand Major Resulting forest stand

Minor

Time

Modification Factors (ModFacs) help interpretation of potential futures

Biological traits (n=9) • Competitive capacity • Edaphic specificity

Disturbances (n=12) • Insects • Disease • Fire • Drought • Flood • Wind • Invasives • Browse

Some of the ModFacs:

Red Maple

? Low

High Key ModFacs

White Ash

? Low

High

Positive Traits Negative Traits

None Insect pest (EAB) Competition – light Fire - topkill

Key ModFacs

Red Maple: • Projected habitat

declines • Characteristics suggest

high adaptability Black Oak: • Projected habitat

increases • Positive ModFac profile

suggests it may be able to persist in harsh areas

White Ash: • Projected habitat

declines • Negative ModFac • Metrics suggest it will

likely face severe limits in eastern US

Matthews et al. 2011, For. Ecol. Manag.; Iverson et al. 2011 Ecosystems

12 Disturbance Factors and 9 Biological Factors considered

Modification Factors

Low Adaptability

High Adaptability

www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/products/#ra

www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/products/#ra

New England Analysis

“Northern Forest”

1: Southern/Coastal New England 2: Eastern Maine 3: Northern Forest

Species and Model Reliability–the reliability of the model – green=good; orange=fair; red=poor. It represents the ‘trust’ you can put in the model results (“all models are wrong; some are useful“).

Northern Forest

Species Importance – FIA IV is the importance value as reported from FIA; Current Modeled is our model to replicate FIA based on 38 environmental

variables . These are area-weighted numbers, meaning it is the sum of the average IV for each of the 20x20 km pixels in the study area.

Northern Forest

Modeled IV – Estimates of future area-weighted IV for three time periods: 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099 (compare to current IV, previous columns).

PCM B1 is a mild scenario GFDL A1FI is a harsh scenario

The idea is to create ‘bookends’ on what may happen to tree species habitats.

Remember: this represents modeled potential for changes in suitable habitat by 2039, 2069, 2099; not what the composition will necessarily look like by those times. Trees live a long time; migration takes a long time unassisted.

Northern Forest

Future:Current– Ratio of future estimate of habitat to current estimate of habitat (not where the species will be!), for three time periods in future.

A ratio of ~ 1 = no change; a ratio < 1 = decrease; a ratio >1 = increase in future..

Northern Forest

Change Class – our interpretation of potential habitat changes by 2100. This is based on a set of rules for the ratios . Color scheme are greens (increase), yellow

(no change), reds (decrease), purple (new habitat)

Northern Forest

Modifying Factors –additional information about the potential of the species to thrive under climate change.

Positive (or Negative) Traits – traits that scored highly in favor (or not) of the species (see chart for translation of abbreviations, you can also download this ModFac Codes file).

Northern Forest

DistFact – average score of 12 disturbance factors and the capacity of the species to withstand them, scaled -3 to +3. See Matthews et al (2011) publication

(Publications on the website) for full explanation of Modifying Factors.

Northern Forest

BioFact – average score of 9 biological factors and the capacity of the species to withstand them, scaled -3 to +3. See Matthews et al (2011) publication (Publications on the website) for full explanation of Modifying Factors.

Northern Forest

Adapt – index of biological and disturbance factors, range 1.7-8.5. Low values < 3.3 (red) – species likely to do worse than DISTRIB projects; Medium values (orange) 3.3-5.2 – species may do roughly as modeled;

High values (green) > 5.2 – species likely to do better than DISTRIB projects

Declines under Both Scenarios Balsam fir (–) Balsam poplar Black ash (–) Black spruce Mountain maple (+) Northern white-cedar Paper birch Red spruce (–) White spruce Declines under High Emissions American beech Chokecherry Pin cherry Quaking aspen Striped maple Sugar maple (+) Yellow birch American mountain-ash (–) Based on end of century models

(–) ModFacs reduce species adaptability (+) ModFacs increase species adaptability

No Change under Both Scenarios American chestnut Atlantic white-cedar (–) Bear oak/Scrub oak Bigtooth aspen Eastern hemlock (–) Eastern white pine Gray birch Pitch pine Red maple (+) White ash (–)

Increases under Both Scenarios Black oak Black willow (–) Blackgum (+) Chestnut oak (+) Eastern cottonwood Eastern redbud Eastern redcedar Flowering dogwood Northern red oak (+) Pignut hickory Pin oak (–) Scarlet oak Serviceberry Shagbark hickory Silver maple (+) Slippery elm Sweet birch (–) White oak (+) Yellow-poplar (+)

Increases under High Emissions American basswood American elm American hornbeam Bitternut hickory (+) Black cherry (–) Black locust Black walnut Boxelder (+) Bur oak (+) Eastern hophornbeam (+) Green ash Honeylocust (+) Mockernut hickory (+) Northern pin oak** (+) Ohio buckeye Red pine Sassafras Swamp white oak Sycamore

Mixed Results Tamarack (native) (–) Butternut (–) Jack pine

New Suitable Habitat – Both Hackberry** (+) Red mulberry**

New Suitable Habitat – High American holly Black hickory Blackjack oak (+) Chinkapin oak** Common persimmon (+) Loblolly pine Osage-orange (+) Pawpaw** Post oak (+) Rock elm (–) Shellbark hickory Shingle oak Shortleaf pine Southern red oak (+) Sugarberry Sweetgum Virginia pine Wild plum Winged elm

Regional climate change vulnerability assessment must evaluate more than just vegetation changes. How might climate change impact wildlife distributions?

??

Trees: Forest Inventory -> Importance Value (IV) -> measure of abundance Birds: Breeding Bird Survey -> Incidence -> measure of abundance

Modeled responses

Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA)

• Eastern US extent (37 states) • 134 tree taxa • > 100,000 plots • ~ 3 million tree records

Importance value (IV) for 134 tree species

(Range: 0-100)

Breeding Bird Survey (BBS)

• Eastern US extent (37 states) • 147 bird species • ~ 1000 BBS routes

Incidences

for 147 bird species (Range of incidences: 0-1)

Rate each species model for reliability

Iverson et al. 2011 Ecosystems

Atlas ingredients (DISTRIB model)

Climate plays a very important role in shaping species distributions

Limits resource availability: seasonal pulses of food Energetic constraints: limited by metabolic processes

What about birds and forests? A natural ecological link to the importance

of floristic composition • Robertson and Holmes one example from

HB direct link at fine scales over long time intervals about the importance of floristic composition capturing food resource etc..

• Not only represents important plant animal interactions but bird communities change over time as tree composition changed in a maturing forest

Do the models really benefit when trees are used as a predictors? (Matthews et al. 2011)

Black-throated blue warbler

Climate/elevation only Climate, elevation and trees

- 93% - 55%

(Abundance index)

Climate/elevation only – greater loss and gains

Ecologically less of a link to key habitat features with only climate

Comparison of models when tree species are not used as predictors

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

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More change No change Less change Divergent

Num

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f spe

cies

Projected to decline in habitat and across models is placed in the small declining category with a range of 0.75 to 0.38 for Vermont depending on scenario.

Further model shows strong association with 3 softwoods depending on position of range (hemlock, white pine, balsam fir) as well as climate determinants

Current Modeled Pcm-low GFDL-High

July temp < 20c

Blue-headed Vireo

Understanding how the models work provides insights to understanding habitat associations and how those habitats are projected to change Let’s walk through an example

Increasing habitat

July temp < 20c Balsam Fir (IV>2) & Eastern White Pine (IV>5)

Blue-headed Vireo

Increasing habitat

July temp < 20c Balsam Fir (IV>2) & Eastern White Pine (IV>5)

South – Eastern Hemlock IV > 1 & IV > 4

North – Striped Maple IV > 1 & IV > 2

Blue-headed Vireo

Increasing habitat

Balsam Fir Projected large decrease in habitat Eastern white pine Small decrease in habitat In addition to the models we also id key traits that may influence tree species.

Interplay between tree and bird responses: projecting forward

Current Modeled Pcm-low GFDL-High

Towards New England Assessment: Vermont example looking across all species and evaluating state specific summary table for birds and trees Following similar approach to other assessments and summarize 33 different variables for each species to assess variability across different scenarios as well as other metrics to help inform decisions

Vermont results: looking across all species and evaluating state specific summary table

Trees # of

species Current

% IV Extirpated 2 1 Lg. Dec. 11 21 Sm. Dec 9 41 No Change 6 28 Sm. Inc. 4 4 Lg. Inc. 20 5 New-Both 14 0 New-High 18 0 Total 84

Birds # of species

Extirpated 0 Lg. Dec. 18 Sm. Dec 25 No Change 32 Sm. Inc. 14 Lg. Inc. 21 New-Both 9 New-High 16 Total 135

Focus on birders dozen from Vermont

SppCN ModRely Low emission High emission Change class Black-throated Blue Warbler High 0.81 0.51 Sm. Dec

Black-throated Green Warbler Medium 0.76 0.39 Sm. Dec

Blue-headed Vireo Medium 0.75 0.38 Sm. Dec

Canada Warbler Medium 0.69 0.35 Lg. Dec. Eastern Wood-Pewee Low 1.3 1.6 Sm. Inc.

Veery High 0.88 0.33 Sm. Dec White-throated Sparrow High 0.75 0.36 Sm. Dec

Wood Thrush High 1.0 0.76 No Change Yellow-bellied Sapsucker High 0.77 0.3 Sm. Dec

Mourning Warbler Medium 0.57 0.27 Lg. Dec.

Nashville Warbler High 0.54 0.27 Lg. Dec.

Projected to decline in habitat and across models is placed in the small declining category with a range of 0.81 to 0.51 for Vermont depending on scenario.

Further model shows strong association with mixed woods (black spruce, yellow birch, striped maple) as well as climate determinants

Current Modeled Pcm-low GFDL-High

Projected to decline in habitat and across models is placed in the small declining category with a range of 0.68 to 0.35 for Vermont depending on scenario.

Further model shows association with balsam fir, hemlock, and summer temperatures

Current Modeled Pcm-low GFDL-High

QUESTIONS?

Slides posted at www.forestadaptation.org/NE-Atlas Atlas web site: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas