The Bureau of Economic Geology - beg.utexas.edu · The Bureau of Economic Geology Established in 1909, the Bureau of Economic Geology is the oldest and second-largest organized research

The Bureau of Economic Geology

Established in 1909, the Bureau of Economic Geology is the oldest and second-largest organized research unit at The University of Texas at Austin. The Bureau functions as the State Geological Survey of Texas, and Director Scott W. Tinker as the state geologist. Bureau researchers spearhead basic and applied research projects globally in energy resources and economics, coastal and environmental studies, land resources and use, geologic and mineral mapping, hydrogeology, geochemistry and subsurface nano- technology. The Bureau provides advisory, educational, technical, and informational services related to the resources and geology of Texas, the nation, and the world.

The Bureau is an international leader in a number of research thrusts, working at the intersection of energy, the environment and the economy, with strengths that include: Unconventional oil and gas exploration

and production Salt tectonics

Natural fractures and structural diagenesis Subsurface micro- and nano-sensing Reservoir characterization in carbonates,

mudrocks, and sandstones Carbon storage in geological reservoirs The water-energy nexus Energy economics

Talented people are the Bureau’s formula for success. The research staff includes more than 120 scientists, engineers and economists, representing 27 countries, working in integrated, multi-disciplinary research teams. Together with 60 skilled graduate students, 15 post docs, and 50 professional support staff, they find solutions to the world’s greatest challenges in energy and environmental research.

Superb facilities and equipment give researchers the tools they need to find objective, rock-based research answers.

More than 15 individual laboratories hosting research teams investigating everything from nano-particles to shale porosity and permeability

Three massive well core research and storage facilities, in Houston, Austin and Midland – collectively, the largest archive of rock material in the world

One of the largest collections of well logs in the U.S.

An extensive inventory of modern imaging devices and integrated technologies for outcrop and land-surface mapping

Over 100 years of producing research results have earned the Bureau an unparalleled reputation. Successful outcomes can be measured by many yardsticks, and Bureau researchers more than measure up.

Over 100 peer-reviewed articles and books published annually

Hundreds of abstracts and peer-reviewed articles published each year in conference proceedings volumes

More than 50 keynote addresses made annually

Bureau researchers are frequently presidents of international professional societies and editors of major professional journals, and are recognized by their peers with top medals and awards in their fields

www.beg.utexas.eduQAe2806

Where energy, the environment and the economy converge.

Government, agency, foundation and non-governmental organization (NGO) partners include: The State of Texas U.S. Department of Energy USGS NASA Cynthia & George Mitchell Foundation O’Donnell Foundation Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Environmental Defense Fund

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For much more information about The Bureau of Economic Geology, please visit our website: www.beg.utexas.edu. Call the Bureau at 512-471-1534.

With its reputation for success, external financial support flows into the Bureau. Research and operations expenditures have increased from roughly $10 million to more than $30 million over the last decade. Bureau research is funded mostly via grants and contracts with various federal, state, and local governments, private agencies and foundations, and industry-based sponsors.

Service to society is a crucial element of the Bureau’s mission, and every effort is made to inform people about geoscience issues and to provide educational outreach. The Bureau sponsors Earth Science Week Career Day for middle school students, lends personnel and expertise to the GeoFORCE college prep program for underserved students, conducts an annual Industry Day open house for company representatives, and hosts a professional Information Geologist to serve educators and the general public.

Partnerships drive strategy, innovation and investigation, and the Bureau engages partners, new and old, on a multitude of levels. Investments in Bureau research provide incredible returns. Corporate partners participate in and gain vital new insights from the Bureau’s many research consortia. Advanced Energy Consortium State of Texas Advanced Resource Recovery Reservoir Characterization Research Laboratory Applied Geodynamics Laboratory Center for Energy Economics Mudrock Systems Research Laboratory Fracture Research and Application Consortium Deep Shelf Western Gulf of Mexico Gulf Coast Carbon Center UT GeoFluids Quantitative Clastics Laboratory Exploration Geophysics Laboratory Texas Consortium for Computational Seismology

Who We AreBased within UT’s largest research organization, the Bureau of Economic Geology, CEE performs research and provides training and outreach on energy economics, markets, and frameworks for commercial and strategic investment. CEE is externally funded through research grants and contracts, corporate and government partnerships, and our training programs and partnerships.

MissionCEE conducts applied research on energy-value-chain economics and educates stakeholders to improve public policy and investment for economic development. “We develop viable solutions to problems across energy value chains and frameworks, identifying trade-offs and addressing externalities.”

CEE TrainingUsing our knowledge base, CEE prepares and delivers training on economic fundamentals of energy value chains, the roles of industry and government, and technology and investment frameworks for commercialization. We also facilitate Commercial Frameworks©; stakeholder interactions (business-government-public); engineering, production, and procurement management; and energy finance.

Center for Energy EconomicsSupply Transport DistributeConvert Use

Energy value chains

Externalities (via stakeholder perceptions about value)Investment frameworks Oil, gas, supply,

deliverability

Economicbenefits andcommodity

markets

Gas/powerchallenges

Upstream,midstreameconomics

Gas utilizationin power gen

Job creation,Federal/State

revenues,supply-demand and price

interactions

Liquidscommercialization

Impact of oil andgas tax changes

Water developmentand use

Adding intermittentresources

Integrated Scenarios

An Energy Web

Sample of Factors Impacting Gas Use for Power

Our Geography and Reach

Oil & gasupstream, midstream

economics, riskanalysis

Oil & gas market dynamics:supply-demand, pricing

Economic impacts

Energy webs: Trade-offs and policy/regulatory drivers

Power value chain:generation cost,

risk analysis,power dispatch

5

4

3

2

1

0

GHG (climate)

Envt (land, water)

Envt (air)

Market friendly

Reliability

Safety

Energy security

Impact (scale)

CoalNatural gasLNGNuclearHydroelectricSolar, wind (grid-based)Solar, distributed

Demand-side responseLarge-scale electricity storage

Decreasing price of oilCC for gas-fired plants

Energy-security concernsGas price < $6Gas price > $7

GHG regulationHigher-demand growthLower-demand growthMercury (EPA MATS)

Methane regulationMore renewables

Nuclear retirementSmart-grid deployment

SOX & NOX (EPA CSAPR)Water scarcity

New Era in Oil, Gas & Power Value Creationdelegate countries (2001–2010)

Major CEE Research and Technical Assistance ProjectsUT McCombs/CEE ExxonMobil Upstream Comm. Overview 1 Program

Custom programs

Houston HQ

Frame of Reference

Clear a Clogged Sink Drain Clear a Clogged Sink Drain

Supply Transport DistributeConvert Use

Energy value chains


deliverability


markets

Gas/powerchallenges





interactions






An Energy Web






Economic impacts




5

4

3

2

1

0

GHG (climate)

Envt (land, water)

Envt (air)

Market friendly

Reliability

Safety

Energy security

Impact (scale)











Custom programs

Houston HQ

Frame of Reference


APPLIED RESEARCH IN ENERGY

ECONOMICS With international

collaborations

OUTREACH Research papers and publications,

forums, web resources

TRAINING AND EDUCATION

McCombs Executive Education and

custom programs

Current Activitiest Natural gas markets: commodity market

trends and demand-side analysis including modeling EPA regulations; gas use in power generation; database for petrochemicals and other industrial demand; exports via pipelines or LNG; use of gas in vehicles; residential and commercial requirements

t Electricity markets: economics of generation technologies, demand response, storage, ancillary services and other design issues

t Critical energy infrastructure: value chain costs and other considerations such as stakeholder risk including oil and gas pipelines; processing; refining to connect oil, gas, liquids production to markets; grids

t Energy webs: evaluating energy options across multiple dimensions

t U.S. producer and national oil company benchmarking: cost structures, performance, financial state of companies, funding sources and capital market risk

B E G R E S E A R C H

ContactMichelle Michot Foss, Chief Energy Economist and Program Manager

Gürcan Gülen, [email protected], (U.S.) 713-654-5404 Laura Martinez, [email protected], (U.S.) 713-654-5400 www.beg.utexas.edu/energyecon [email protected]

Center for Energy Economics

CENTER FOR ENERGY

ECONOMICS

Bureau of Economic GeologyJackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin


Energy value chains


deliverability


markets

Gas/powerchallenges





interactions






An Energy Web






Economic impacts




5

4

3

2

1

0

GHG (climate)

Envt (land, water)

Envt (air)

Market friendly

Reliability

Safety

Energy security

Impact (scale)











Custom programs

Houston HQ

Frame of Reference


CEE Analytics and Modeling


Energy value chains


deliverability


markets

Gas/powerchallenges





interactions






An Energy Web






Economic impacts




5

4

3

2

1

0

GHG (climate)

Envt (land, water)

Envt (air)

Market friendly

Reliability

Safety

Energy security

Impact (scale)











Custom programs

Houston HQ

Frame of Reference


Sample Factors Impacting Gas Use for Power


Energy value chains


deliverability


markets

Gas/powerchallenges





interactions






An Energy Web






Economic impacts




5

4

3

2

1

0

GHG (climate)

Envt (land, water)

Envt (air)

Market friendly

Reliability

Safety

Energy security

Impact (scale)











Custom programs

Houston HQ

Frame of Reference




Energy value chains


deliverability


markets

Gas/powerchallenges





interactions






An Energy Web






Economic impacts




5

4

3

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GHG (climate)

Envt (land, water)

Envt (air)

Market friendly

Reliability

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Energy security

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Custom programs

Houston HQ

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The Energy Web

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©BEG/CEE-UT, 1

2014 Presentation Slides

Summary of Key Research Highlights Featured for External Groups ©BEG/CEE-UT, 2

It’s Complicated

• Big picture– Midstream build out – timing, logistics, perils, pitfalls– Demand – who, what, when, where– Trade and exports

• Short term– Oil demand jitters vs oil supply geopolitics– Gas storage dominant themes

• Longer term– Is gas still a byproduct???– Gas supply and deliverability in the face of demand pull

©BEG/CEE-UT, 3

Scenario Tracking: Crude Oil

Based on Foss, 2011, OIES NG 58; see Foss, Gulen, Wainberg, Oil & Gas Investor, September 2013

Offsetting factors:• Lower global demand (mainly China)• OECD supply• OPEC supply and geopolitical risk• “Political stabilization” premium

©BEG/CEE-UT, 4

Scenario Tracking: Natural Gas


Offsetting factors:• Supply constraints – depleting inventory

of core acreage drilling locations, regulatory risk

• Demand build – industrial response, price and regulatory push on power gen

©BEG/CEE-UT, 5

Scenario Tracking: Oil, Gas Spread


High risk projects such as GTL generally need 20:1 and preferably 25:1 for economics

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45Historical Oil:NG

CEE (Foss) Projection, Fall 2011 ($Nominal)

EIA AEO 2014 Oil:NG

Timing?

©BEG/CEE-UT, 6

Good News: U.S. Oil Replenishment

2,900

205,217

30,529

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1900 ProvedReserves

1901‐2012Production

2012 ProvedReserves

Million Barrels

1900‐2012 change in:Production 3,637%Reserves 953%

TOP 10 *OIL PRODUCERS,2012:(Thousand Barrels per Day)Saudi Arabia 11,725.7United States 11,109.0Russia 10,397.0China 4,372.4Canada 3,856.4Iran 3,517.8UAE 3,213.2Iraq 2,986.6Mexico 2,936.0Kuwait 2,796.8*Crude oil only

CEE analysis based on EIA; BP places U.S. 3rd

after Russia in 2013 including NGLs

©BEG/CEE-UT, 7

Good News: U.S. Gas Replenishment

46

1,122

308

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1930 Proved Reserves 1931‐2012 Production 2012 Proved Reserves

Trillion Cubic Feet (TCF)

TOP 10 *GAS PRODUCERS,2012:(Billion Cubic Feet per Day)United States 65.9Russia 59.4Iran 15.5Qatar 15.1Canada 13.9Norway 11.4China 10.4Saudi Arabia 9.8Algeria 8.4Netherlands 7.8*Dry gas production

1930‐2012 change in:Production 1,164%Reserves 570%

CEE analysis based on EIA ©BEG/CEE-UT, 8

U.S. Oil & Gas Production

• We need oil production growth rates of 15‐18% year on year to sustain dry gas growth rates of 4‐6%.

• 2014 gas storage “woulda coulda”

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Y-Y Change

Prod

uctio

n, '0

00 B

BL

U.S. Oil Production (Thousand Barrels)

U.S. Oil Production 12-MO MA (Thousand Barrels)

Y-Y Chg Oil Production (%)

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Y-Y Change

Prod

uctio

n, M

MC

F

U.S. Dry Gas Production (MMCF)

U.S. Dry Gas Production 12-MO MA (MMCF)

Y-Y Chg Dry Gas Production (%)

©BEG/CEE-UT, 9

Long Term Perspectives

©BEG/CEE-UT, 10

Feeling the Need for Shale

CEE based on EIA and other sources

Offshore (Federal, State)

Onshore (Conventional)

CBMShale

‐

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

Million Cubic Feet

Note: 2013 estimates for shales, CBM based on industry and state government data

©BEG/CEE-UT, 11

Comparative Tiers

Can deliver at $4 base case

Less uplift at $6 than other basins

Marcellus

BEG Shale Reserves, Production Research

Marcellus Preliminary

EMBARGOED

©BEG/CEE-UT, 12

It’s Expensive, and Location Dependent

‐$2

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 Tier 6 Tier 7 Tier 8 Tier 9 Tier 10

Barnett Low Btu

Barnett High Btu

Fayetteville Shallow

Fayetteville Medium

Fayetteville Deep

Haynesville

PA Dry

PA Wet

PA Rich

$4 Henry Hub

Breakeven Economics @ 10% IRR

Marcellus Preliminary

BEG Sloan shale resource assessment

EMBARGOED

©BEG/CEE-UT, 13

U.S. Cost and Performance

• Liquids driven business since 2007• CEE benchmarked companies: CAPEX, OPEX still rising –difficult to sustain economies of scale for unit cost management

• Price provides the main, or only, uplift – but not all barrels are the same– Only black oil can get full WTI price (with transport)– Condensate ~$20 below WTI– NGLs basket 60‐70% of WTI (depending upon C1 cut)– C1‐C2 mix 20‐30% of WTI

• Rapidly depleting the best, core acreage; continuous drilling• Public company business model (“Street”)

©BEG/CEE-UT, 14

GDP, Oil Price Linkages

‐100%

‐50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

‐3%

‐2%

‐1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%Chan

ge in

Oil P

rice, Y

‐Y

World GDP Growth, Y

‐Y

World GDP growth (annual %)Oil Price (annual %)

World Bank databank

©BEG/CEE-UT, 15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Energy

Metals & Minerals

Non‐Fuel

Oil: Catching up

World Bank commodity indexes from Quandl ©BEG/CEE-UT, 16

Fiscal Cost Curve 2012

Bar width: country’s production; bar heights: price estimate rangesAissaoui, A., Fiscal Break-Even Prices Revisited: What More Could They Tell Us About OPEC Policy Intent?, APICORP Research, Economic Commentary, Volume 7 No.8-9, August-September 2012 and Middle East Economic Survey, August 13, 2012. Used with permission.

CEE 2011 NOC benchmark range:

$73-86/BOE

©BEG/CEE-UT, 17

Fiscal Cost Curve YE 2013

Downward pressure on oil prices

Used with permission

CEE 2013 NOC benchmark

range: $74-96/BOE

©BEG/CEE-UT, 18

‐100%

‐50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%Y‐Y Change Cushing, OKMonthly Avg WTI SpotPrice, %

Y‐Y Change Henry HubMonthly Average SpotPrice, %

Markets ‘R Us• Small changes in

supply-demand balance exert large changes in price volatility.

• Natural gas has tended to demonstrate greater price volatility than oil. “Volatility is Dead”

CEE analysis based on EIA

©BEG/CEE-UT, 19

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

TCF

Industrial CEE

Other (Res, Comm,Trans) EIA ER Dec2013

A Strong “Demand Stack” Brewing

CEE analysis; EIA 2014 Early Release (ER), Dec 2013 (reference case)

Other 2030 = 10.8 (residential+ commercial 10.5)

Industrial 2030 = 8.8 (EIA ER = 8.5)

©BEG/CEE-UT, 20

$3.91 $3.52

$2.41

$3.40

$2.71 $2.99

$3.66

$3.73

$0.66 $0.65

$0.61

$0.71 $7.28 $7.16

$6.67

$7.84

$‐

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

Average AllProducers(2009)




$/MCFE

10% Return

U.S. Cash Operating Costs $/MCFE

U.S. All Source FD Costs $/MCFE

Henry Hub Spot Price $4/MCF

Note: All Source FD Costs are 3‐year rolling averages

As of: December 4, 2013

Producer Economics

Monitoring U.S./Global Oil and Gas: Upstream Attainment, Producer Challenges http://www.beg.utexas.edu/energyecon/thinkcorner/Think%20Corner%20‐%20Producers.pdf

NGL Uplift: how much, when & where?

©BEG/CEE-UT, 21

NGL Uplift is Volatile

CEE based on CME/NYMEX ©BEG/CEE-UT, 22

Industrial Gas Demand – A Growth Scenario Based on Projects in Progress

Xinya to Insert updated chart

• 23.6 BCFD or 8.6 TCF in 2019. 1.4 TCF increase since 2012

• CEE’s inventory is project based and does not include all sectors represented in EIA base demand.

Analysis based on CEE industrial project inventory

©BEG/CEE-UT, 23

Industrial Investment ($) by Region: LA, TX, Rest of US

• Projects that are completed or in permits, FEED or EPC phases:

• New investment 2013 – 2019 of $90.4 billion

• Regional shares:• LA: 39%• TX: 30%• Rest of US: 31%

• 123 projects total: ethylene, polyethylene, propylene, methanol, nitrogen fertilizers, chlor-alkali, hydrogen, other chemicals, plastics, metal, manufacturing and GTL

• All announced projects including those still in primary phases (under consideration, planning):

• 161 projects• Total investment of $124.5

billion• LA share drops to 35%

Analysis based on CEE industrial project inventory ©BEG/CEE-UT, 24

Major PetchemProject Count by Type by Region: LA, TX, Rest of US

• Ethylene plants (propylene, polyethylene included since many appear to be integrated): LA ‐ 8, TX ‐ 17, Rest of U.S. ‐ 4

• Methanol: all Gulf Coast. 3 in LA, 4 in TX.

• Nitrogen fertilizer (Ammonia, urea, UAN): Distributed in IA, IN, IL, TN, OK, ID, etc, close to demand market.

• GTL: SASOL in LA. Remainder are small‐scale plants.

Project Type LA TX Rest of US Grand Total

Nitrogen fertilizers 3 2 17 22

Other Chemicals 5 11 5 21

Ethylene 5 12 1 18

Metals 3 8 11

Polyethylene 3 6 1 10

Manufacturing 9 9

Methanol 3 4 7

Propylene 5 2 7

Chlor‐Alkali 1 1 3 5

GTL 2 3 5

Hydrogen 1 1 2 4

Plastics 1 2 3

MTG 1 1

Grand Total 28 42 53 123

Analysis based on CEE industrial project inventory

©BEG/CEE-UT, 25

Major New (2013‐19) Petchem Project Gas Use by Type by Region: LA, TX, Rest of US

Analysis based on CEE industrial project inventory ©BEG/CEE-UT, 26CEE based on EIA, NYMEX

NGL Frac Spread (NGL/Methane Prices)

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

January‐09 January‐10 January‐11 January‐12 January‐13 January‐14

$/M

MBtu

©BEG/CEE-UT, 27

Naptha/Ethane Cost Ratio

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan‐10 Jul‐10 Jan‐11 Jul‐11 Jan‐12 Jul‐12 Jan‐13 Jul‐13

Ethane cracker more profitable

Naphtha cracker more profitable

©BEG/CEE-UT, 28

Cash Margins

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

‐$200

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

Nap

htha/ethan

e price ratio

$ per metric ton

Cash margin for ethane crackerCash margin for naphtha crackerNaphtha/ethane price ratio

©BEG/CEE-UT, 29

Cracker Cash Margins (Ethane/Naphtha)

1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.80 1.85 1.90 1.95 2.00

0.20 1.02 1.09 1.18 1.28 1.40 1.54 1.72 1.94 2.23 2.61 3.17

0.25 0.97 1.04 1.12 1.21 1.33 1.46 1.63 1.84 2.12 2.48 3.01

0.30 0.91 0.98 1.06 1.15 1.26 1.38 1.54 1.74 2.00 2.35 2.86

0.35 0.86 0.93 1.00 1.08 1.19 1.31 1.46 1.65 1.89 2.22 2.70

0.40 0.81 0.87 0.94 1.02 1.12 1.23 1.38 1.55 1.79 2.09 2.54

0.45 0.76 0.82 0.88 0.96 1.05 1.16 1.29 1.46 1.67 1.96 2.38

0.50 0.71 0.77 0.83 0.90 0.98 1.08 1.20 1.36 1.56 1.83 2.23

0.55 0.66 0.71 0.77 0.83 0.91 1.00 1.12 1.26 1.45 1.70 2.07

0.60 0.61 0.66 0.71 0.77 0.84 0.93 1.03 1.17 1.34 1.57 1.91

0.65 0.56 0.60 0.65 0.71 0.77 0.85 0.95 1.07 1.23 1.45 1.76

0.70 0.51 0.55 0.59 0.64 0.70 0.78 0.86 0.98 1.12 1.32 1.60

0.75 0.46 0.50 0.53 0.58 0.63 0.70 0.78 0.88 1.01 1.19 1.44

0.80 0.41 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.56 0.62 0.69 0.78 0.90 1.06 1.28

0.85 0.36 0.39 0.42 0.45 0.49 0.55 0.61 0.69 0.79 0.93 1.13

Ethane Price ($/gallon)

Naphtha Price ($/gallon)

?

©BEG/CEE-UT, 30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

TCF

Power generationCEE

Industrial CEE

Other (Res, Comm,Trans) EIA ER Dec2013

A Strong “Demand Stack” Brewing

CEE analysis; EIA 2014 Early Release (ER), Dec 2013 (reference case)



Power 2030 = 15.9 (EIA ER = 10.1)CEE assumes all possible EPA actions

©BEG/CEE-UT, 31

Different Views of the World

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Consumption of Natural Gas in Power Generation (Index, 2010 = 1)

AEO Real GDP IHS Real GDP AEO Electricity IHS Electricity

Based on data from EIA AEO 2013 & IHS Global Insight

Avg y‐y growth of 2.5%

©BEG/CEE-UT, 32

Coal Retirements• About 50 GW of coal capacity may retire by 2020

– Almost 21 GW already retired in 2010‐13 (mostly older units)

– Announced about 29 GW (2014‐2020)

©BEG/CEE-UT, 33

Nuclear Relicensing?• 4 recent announcements; more possible but our modeling does not retire nuclear units

• 5,500 MW in 3 plants under construction

©BEG/CEE-UT, 34

A Scenario on Gas Use in Power

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2030

TCF

Nuclear shutdowns

Change in Gas Price Forecast

Coal risks

U.S. Gas‐Power Linkages: Building Future Views for details: http://www.beg.utexas.edu/energyecon/thinkcorner/Think%20Corner%20Gas‐Power%20Linkages.pdf

©BEG/CEE-UT, 35

A strong “demand stack” scenario

CEE analysis; EIA ER refers to EIA 2014 Early Release, Dec 2013 (reference case)



Power 2030 = 15.9 (EIA ER = 10.1)

Pipe Exports 2030 = 3.9 (EIA ER = 3.4)

LNG Exports 2030 = 1.0 (EIA ER = 3.5)

©BEG/CEE-UT, 36

Is exporting crude oil a problem??

“yes”

Upstream economics, impacts on wellhead value

Regulatory efficiency (political risk of

alternative approaches)

Revoke EAA or remove all hydrocarbon components

(chance of success?)

Streamline existing process for long term “optionality” (exports,

imports)

Quick fix to add condensate to CCL (or remove, whichever is

correct)

Value chain integrity –supporting infrastructure

(“both regulatory process and infrastructure are so 70s”)

Transport modes, risks,

policy/regulatory considerations

“no”

Enough companies can get exemptions,

approvals

“Perception of risk” view: less drilling = less production = fewer

nuisances and hazards

The Crude Export Debate

©BEG/CEE-UT, 37

O Canada: Getting Their Dander Up

TransCanada Energy East

Enbridge Eastern Access

©BEG/CEE-UT, 38Map presents a possible gas flow scenario, Foss, Ch. 3 in Pricing Internationally Traded Gas, Oxford, 2012; gas trade data from EIA

The Future?2013: U.S. is

29% of Canadian consumption

2013: U.S. is29% of

Mexican consumption

~2x current NA exports by 2020?~9+ BCFD

©BEG/CEE-UT, 39

3

6 6 6 6

1 1 1 1

3

3 3 3 5

1.3

1.3 23.5

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1011121314151617181920

The Attraction "Reality" High Cost Delivery toAtlantic Basin

High Cost Delivery toPacific Basin

Super High CostDelivery to Pacific Basin

$/MMBtuRegasification Shipping Liquefaction Field to Terminal Henry Hub

Is U.S. LNG Competitive?

$9‐11 NBP

$14‐19 Asia spot

$10 Japan pre‐Fukushima

Sep14$6‐7Oct14 $9+

http://www.beg.utexas.edu/energyecon/thinkcorner/Is%20US%20LNG%20Competitive.pdf

Sep14 $10‐11Oct14$14‐15

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Documents

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