THE BLOGOSPHERE AND PUBLIC POLICYDavid Farrar

What is the mood in New Zealand?

Direction NZ and Overseas

Australia Canada UK USA NZ-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

RightWrongNet

PM Approval

Gillard Harper Cameron Obama Key-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

ApproveDisapproveNet

Politics vs Policy• The political environment is one where the popularity of

the Prime Minister is the most critical factor• Good public policy and popularity do not always make for

peaceful bedmates• However a popular PM can also change opinion on an

issue• However he is more likely to do with people calling for him

to do so• The media now will never ever advocate for an issue such

as minimum youth rates – at best they will report on it or repeat other’s arguments.

Whale’s Media rating System

Blogs and Minimum Youth Rates• Kiwiblog – 25 times• Interest.co.nz – 8 times• Eric Crampton – 49 times• Crampton’s work has been cited around 100+ times

Is it having an effect?• In 2009/10, Government voted against a bill restring youth

rates even going to select committee• Since then National MPs and Labour MPs often get

peppered with challenges to bring back youth rates when they talk youth unemployment

• National has acknowledged the campaign persuaded it to reconsider the issue

• They also know the campaign won’t stop, unless youth unemployment drops significantly

• 50/50 on whether National will change policy• Treasury have gone “soft” and say evidence is mixed• Missing the point that the debate should be over when

minimum wage is high compared to median wage

The media is failing with regards to public policy

• NZPA has closed – stories not sexy enough• More and more stories on process not policy• No fact checkers• Celebrity journalists• No push back against outrageous assertions – 40%

carbon emission reductions and now “eco-cide”

Why the centre-right blogosphere is doing well

1. The top CR bloggers blog under their own names

2. The CL bloggers attack the CR bloggers, while the CR bloggers attack MPs

3. There is a Vast Right Wing Conspiracy

4. CR bloggers will criticise CR parties

5. With a CR Government in office, there is the ability to influence

6. I’d estimate 80% of Ministers and 70% of MPs read the main CR blogs daily, and their staff even more so

7. Asymmetrical Warfare (© Whale) – bloggers are not MPs

Opportunities• One can’t push multiple issues – need those of like mind

to identify at most three priorities where we want policy change from the Government

• For my 2c education reform is vital and should be one of those

• Coalition Meetings, as done by Americans for Tax Reform – perhaps monthly

• A Fact Check site done by a neutral institution• A Taxpayers Union that focuses 100% on wasteful

spending in local and central govt, and reduced spending