The Association between Air Pollution and Population ... · Air pollution is one of the great killers of our age. Polluted air was responsible in 2015 for 6·4 million deaths worldwide:

The Association between Air Pollution and Population Health Risk in China based on

Spatiotemporal analysis

An ZhangInstitute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of ScienceCenter for Geographic Analysis, Harvard University

2019-03-28

Geography Colloquium The Center for Geographic Analysis, Harvard University

Curriculum Vitae

Email [email protected] [email protected]

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9338-6250

Education Ph.D., GIS, Chinese Academy of Science, 2008.

M.A, Demography, Sun Yat-sen University, 2005. B.S, Geosciences, Fujian Normal University, 2003.

My main research interest is demography and public health study based on Geographical Information System. I am particularly focused on the study of dynamic population estimation model and public health spatiotemporal analysis. I am working with Prof. Peter Bol on the spatial and temporal analysis of China’s Census and physical geographical features during the visit to the CGA, Harvard.

Associate Professor , Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science.Visiting Scholar, Center for Geographic Analysis, Harvard University

mailto:[email protected]

http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9338-6250

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Geographic InquiryGeography is the study of the physical and cultural environments of the earth. What makes geography different from other disciplines is it’s focus on spatial inquiry and analysis. Geographers also try to look for connections between things such as patterns, movement and migration, trends, and so forth. This process is called geographic or spatial inquiry.

Geographic inquiry process.

Credit: ESRI & Lumen learning

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What’s the relationship between Air Pollution and Population Health

Outline

Air Pollution Data ,Population Data & Health Data

Spatio-temporal pattern

Human exposure and Health effect

Public policy and private action

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What’s Air pollution?• Air pollution is a mixture of natural and

man-made substances in the air we breathe. It is typically separated into two categories: outdoor air pollution (ambient air pollution) and indoor air pollution.

Outdoor air pollution

• Fine particles produced by the burning of fossil fuels

• Noxious gases (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, chemical vapors, etc.)

• Ground-level ozone • Tobacco Smoke

Indoor air pollution

• Gases (carbon monoxide, radon, etc.)• Household products and chemicals• Building materials (asbestos,

formaldehyde, lead, etc.)• Outdoor indoor allergens (cockroach

and mouse dropping, etc.)• Tobacco smoke• Mold and pollen

Credit: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences

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Global satellite-derived map of PM2.5 averaged over 2001-2006.

Credit: Dalhousie University, Aaron van Donkelaar

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Very high levels of PM2.5 in a broad swath stretching from the Saharan Desert in Northern Africa to Eastern Asia. When compared with maps of population density, it suggests more than 80 percent of the world's population breathe polluted air that exceeds the World Health Organization's recommended level of 10 micrograms per cubic meter.

Health Effects of Air Pollutants

Ask-Background

Credit: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences

Air pollution is one of the great killers of our age. Polluted air was responsible in 2015 for 6·4 million deaths worldwide: 2·8 million from household air pollution and 4·2 million from ambient air pollution.

Credit: The Lancet Commission on pollution and healthGlobal Burden of Disease 2015

Ask-BackgroundHealth Effects of Air Pollutants

Air-quality indices make pollution seem less bad than it is——The Economist

Official indices also fail to capture patterns of variation within a day. These can be important—and people might be able to modify their behaviourif they understood them.

SMOKING a whole packet of cigarettes in a day once or twice a year would certainly make someone feel ill, but probably would not kill him. Smoking even one cigarette every day for decades, though, might do so. That is the difference between acute and chronic exposure, and it is a difference most people understand. What they may not understand is that the same thing applies to air pollution.

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Credit: The Economist


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Air PollutionSpatial and

temporal distribution of Environmental pollution

Population• Spatial and

temporal distribution of population

Health • Human exposure

and Health effect

CONCEPTS OF HUMAN EXPOSURE TO AIR POLLUTION (Ott, 1982)

A definition is proposed in which the pollutant must come into contact with the physical boundary of the person. Then, exposure of person i to pollutant concentration c is viewed as two events occurring jointly: person i is present at a particular location, and concentration c is present at the same location.

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Locations of monitoring stations for PM2.5 in Beijing from BJEPB.

Acquire- Air pollution data

We collected hourly PM2.5 concentration data from 35 sites in Beijing and acute respiratoryinfection case data from October 8th, 2012 to November 11th, 2012. Another datasets are thedaily PM2.5 concentration for 31 days in 2014 (from 1 May to 31 May) at the 35 monitoringsites in Beijing. The data were obtained from the Beijing Environmental Protection MonitoringCenter.

Locations of monitoring sites in Shenzhen.

Acquire- Air pollution data

19 sites

365 days（2013、2014、2015、2016）

6 pollutant（SO2，NO2,PM10,CO,O3，PM2.5)

Acquire- Population data

Census 2010

The latest Sixth National Population Census of the People's Republic of China also known as the 2010 Chinese Census, was used in our analysis. This census revealed an official population for Beijing of 19,612,368.

Its urban area includes six districts (county level): Xicheng, Dongcheng, Haidian, Chaoyang, Shijinshan, and Fengtai. The total urban area comprises 1378 square kilometers with a 2010 census population of 11,683,213.

Acquire- Healthy dataRespiratory Infection Cases Data in Beijing

1057 cases were identified, of which, 917 were considered valid cases with supporting data. Data was entered into an acute respiratory infection data form included the date of diagnosis (Date/Clinic), duration of the illness in days (Duration), date of the respiratory illness onset (Date/Ill), place of residence (Add/Residence), and commuting locale (Add/Work).

Acquire- Healthy dataHospital Admission Data in Shenzhen

Hospital admission data was obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Medical Information. It contains 111,436 total respiratory hospital admission records (from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013) from 98 hospitals spread across the whole city area. These records contain the date of admission, age, gender, and discharge diagnosis from the tenth revision of the international classification of diseases (ICD-10) for each patient.

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Explore- Spatio-temporal pattern

daytime nighttime

Pollution Distribution

Population Distribution

Human exposure

Health effect

Pattern

Diagnosis

Reason

Spatial characteristics

Relationship

Parameter extraction and

feature diagnosis

Mechanism analysis


Spatiotemporal Grids for spatiotemporal analysis: 2438 grids (1km*1km) 840 hours in Beijing

Spatial and temporal distribution of Environmental pollution

凌晨 0 点凌晨 1 点凌晨 2 点

凌晨 3 点凌晨 4 点凌晨 5 点

早晨 6 点早晨 7 点早晨 8 点

上午 9 点上午 10 点上午 11 点

中午 12 点下午 1 点下午 2 点

下午 3 点下午 4 点下午 5 点

下午 6 点下午 7 点晚上 8 点

晚上 9 点晚上 10 点晚上 11 点

Spatial distribution of air pollutant concentrations based on wind direction classification in Shenzhen from March 2013 to February 2014.


Time Variation Characteristics of PM2.5 in Beijing 2014


Space-time association rules for

the distribution of day and night population

Estimated population using transportation survey data

and census population

Dynamic population estimation

Spatial and temporal distribution of population

Weekend DaytimeWorkday Daytime Nighttime



Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Human Dynamics on Urban Land Use Patterns Using Social Media Data by Gender


NLP

Emotion detect Using Social Media Data

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10.8th.2012 10.9th.2012 10.10th.2012 10.11th.2012 10.12th.2012 10.13th.2012 10.14th.2012

10.15th.2012 10.16th.2012 10.17th.2012 10.18th.2012 10.19th.2012 10.20th.2012 10.21th.2012

10.22th.2012 10.23th.2012 10.24th.2012 10.25th.2012 10.26th.2012 10.27th.2012 10.28th.2012

10.29th.2012 10.30th.2012 10.31th.2012 11.1th.2012 11.2th.2012 11.3th.2012 11.4th.2012

11.5st.2012 11.6nd.2012 11.7rd.2012 11.8th.2012 11.9th.2012 11.10th.2012 11.11th.2012

Human exposure

Country/organization Annual average concentration（μg/m3）

Daily average concentration（μg/m3）

Remarks

EPA（USA） 15 35 Come into effect in 2006WHO Interim target-1 35 75

Release in 2005WHO Interim target-2 25 50WHO Interim target-3 15 37.5WHO Air quality guideline 10 25China 35 75 Come into effect in 2016

Analyze- Human exposure and Health effect

Human exposure


Number of cumulative exceedance days.

Areas south of Chang An Avenue and east of the Beijing-Chengde expressway seem to be the high risk areas with up to two weeks or more of exceedance days. A large area south of the 4th ring road accumulated 16–18 days during this 37-day monitoring period. In other words, for half of the time or more, the people living there were exposed to excessive PM2.5 pollution.

Human exposure


Statistically, over the duration of data collection, the cumulative exposed population is 160,561,842 (average daily exposed population is 4,339,509), representing 37.14% of Beijing's cumulative total urban population.The cumulative population exposed to hazardous levels of PM2.5 (AQI level 6) is

12,315,860 (average daily exposed population is 332,861), or 2.85% of the total.

Urban area between the second and fifth ring roads had generally high exposure. In contrast with the accumulated amount of exceedance days, the hotspots of accumulative exposed population were not just the areas to the south and southeast of Beijing; north to Chang An Avenue and west to the Beijing-Chengde expressway, there were also some census units in such hotspots of accumulated exposure.

Home address Work Place address

Spatiotemporal analysis of ambient air pollution exposure and respiratory infections cases in Beijing

Respiratory infections cases 24H 48H 72H

>35μg/m3 288 340 415

>75μg/m3 170 212 249

>115μg/m3 123 120 56

Health effect

With the limited respiratory infections cases,the following conclusions were reached:

When the concentration of PM2.5 was relativelylow (greater than 35 μg/m³ and less than 115μg/m³) for several days, at least three days ofexposure were needed to cause acute respiratorydisease.

When the concentration of PM2.5 was relativelyhigh (greater than 115 μg/m³), only one day ofexposure was needed to cause infection.

These significant findings help define therelationship between PM2.5 exposure durationand concentration of PM2.5 with the developmentof acute respiratory disease.


Health effect

A Case Study of Shenzhen, China used the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) toreveal the Lag-response relationship between Air Pollution and RR for hospital admission of acute respiratory Infection.


Evidence from a case study of Shenzhen, China show that: Association between Air Pollution and Population Health Risk for Respiratory Infection are also in terms of gender and age groups.

The RR estimated for acute lower respiratory infection hospitalizations associated with PM2.5 tended to be smaller for females than males.The RR estimated for acute lower respiratory infection hospitalizations associated with PM2.5 tended to be smaller for cohort 15-64 than other group.

Gender and age sensitive

Xia X, Zhang A*, Liang S, et al. The Association between Air Pollution and Population Health Risk for Respiratory Infection: A Case Study of Shenzhen, China.[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research & Public Health, 2017, 14(9):950

Health effect


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Zhang A, et al. 2013. Population Exposure to PM2.5 in the Urban Area of Beijing. PLoS ONE 8(5): e63486. (SCI)

Zhang A, et al. 2015. Spatiotemporal analysis of ambient air pollution exposure and respiratory infections cases in Beijing. Central European Journal of Public Health,23:73-6. (SSCI)

Xia X, Zhang A*, Liang S, et al. The Association between Air Pollution and Population Health Risk for Respiratory Infection: A Case Study of Shenzhen, China.[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research & Public Health, 2017, 14(9):950. (SCI)

Li, Q.; Ren, H.; Zheng, L.; Cao, W.; Zhang, A.; Zhuang, D.; Lu, L.; Jiang, H. Ecological Niche Modeling Identifies Fine-Scale Areas at High Risk of Dengue Fever in the Pearl River Delta, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 619. (SCI)

Xia, X.; Qi, Q.; Liang, H.; Zhang, A.; Jiang, L.; Ye, Y.; Liu, C.; Huang, Y. Pattern of Spatial Distribution and Temporal Variation of Atmospheric Pollutants during 2013 in Shenzhen, China. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2017, 6, 2. (SCI)

Lin J, Zhang A*, Chen W, Lin M. Estimates of Daily PM2.5 Exposure in Beijing Using Spatio-Temporal Kriging Model. Sustainability. 2018; 10(8):2772.

Lei C, Zhang A*, Qi Q, Su H, Wang J. Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Human Dynamics on Urban Land Use Patterns Using Social Media Data by Gender. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 2018; 7(9):358.

CNTVNews

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A recipe for air pollution？

Is Exercising in Polluted Areas Worth the Risk?- runnersworld.

Credit: RunnersworldCredit: Waldrop M. 2018. Free agents. Science 360: 144–147.

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The Association between Air Pollution and Population ... · Air pollution is one of the great killers of our age. Polluted air was responsible in 2015 for 6·4 million deaths worldwide: