The American Nuclear Society The Society for the advancement of nuclear science and technology to benefit humanity

The American Nuclear Society

The Society for the advancement of nuclear science and technology

to benefit humanity

The Top Ten Nuclear Issues & Challenges

Remarks to the ASQ Energy and Environmental Division

by

Garry A Harris

ANS Chairperson, Georgia Section

September 13, 2004

ANS Membership

11,000 individual members• 800 (7%) outside the United States• 47 countries represented• 8% under 35; 15% over 66• ~700 with less than 5 years experience• Under 35 group increased by ~40% from

1999 to today

ANS Membership AlsoConsists of:

• 19 Divisions/Technical Groups• 70 Organization Members• 36 U.S. Local Sections• 9 Non-U.S. Sections/Affiliated Societies• 30 formal agreements for cooperation

with international organizations• 15 Plant Branches• 33 Student Sections

ANS Goals

ANS will be: • the recognized leader for the advancement of

nuclear science and technology• members’ primary resource for professional

development and knowledge exchange• publicly recognized as a credible source of

nuclear science and technology information• an active contributor to, and participant in,

nuclear science and technology issues

Top 10 - Nuclear Good News

• Delivery of record outputs

Record Nuclear Electricity Production Is Sustainable

767 778754

728

674640

577

500

600

700

800

'90 '94 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02

(Bill

ion

s o

f K

ilow

att-

Ho

urs

)

Source: NEI


• Delivery of record outputs• Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply


• Delivery of record outputs• Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply• Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable

and secure energy supply

Fossil Fuel Supplies

• Western World must reduce their dependence on oil– Limit influence on foreign

policy

– Reduce cost to economy of oil price shocks

– Reduce greenhouse gas emissions

– Prepare for inevitable resource depletion

– Husband oil for other uses

• Reducing oil use is not a solution to terrorism but it may help


• Delivery of record outputs• Playing vital role in nation’s energy supply• Only environmentally acceptable option for reliable and

secure energy supply• Excellent safety record

Significant Events: Annual Industry Average

(1988-2001)

0.77

0.9

0.450.4

0.25 0.260.21

0.17

0.08 0.10.04 0.03 0.02 0.03

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001

Source: NUS

Significant Events (SEs) are those events that the NRC staff identifies for the PI Program as meeting one or more of the following criteria:

degradation of important safety equipment;a major transient or an unexpected plant response to a transient;degradation of fuel integrity, the primary coolant pressure boundary, or important associated structures;a reactor trip with complications;an unplanned release of radioactivity exceeding the technical specifications or regulations;operation outside the technical specification limits;other events considered significant

Fiscal Year



secure energy supply• Excellent safety record• Capacity factors at record high levels

Nuclear Plant Efficiency At Record High-Levels

Source: NEI

91%90.7%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

'92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02

Ca

pa

cit

y F

ac

tor



secure energy supply• Excellent safety record• Capacity factors at record high levels• Good economic performance

US Electricity Production Cost Estimates (1981-2002)(in constant 2000 cents/kWh)

Source: Pre 1995: UDI, Post 1995: RDI Modeled Production Cost

Electricity Production Costs (Updated for 2002)

0123456789

1011

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01

Year

Co

st

- c

en

ts/k

wh

r Nuclear 1.71Coal 1.85Gas 4.06Oil 4.41



secure energy supply• Excellent safety record• Capacity factors at record high levels• Good economic performance• Expect significant increase in future electricity

demand



secure energy supply• Excellent safety record• Capacity factors at record high levels• Good economic performance• Expect significant increase in future electricity demand• License renewals and plant life extension



secure energy supply• Excellent safety record• Capacity factors at record high levels• Good economic performance• Expect significant increase in future electricity demand• License renewals and plant life extension• Environmental quality benefits

Health Effects of Fossil Emissions

Health Effect Study Cases/Yr

Mortality HEI, Pope 30,100

Respiratory Hospitaliztns 4 pooled 20,100

Asthma ER visits Schwartz 7,160

Chronic Bronchitis Pooled 18,600

Asthma attacks Whittemore 603,000

Lost work days Ostro 5,130,000

Minor restricted activity Ostro 26,300,000

Abt Associates, Clean Air Task Force, October 2000.

Emissions from fossil plants are killing > 30,000 people per year

Source: Dan Keuter, Entergy



secure energy supply• Excellent safety record• Capacity factors at record high levels• Good economic performance• Expect significant increase in future electricity demand• License renewals and plant life extension• Environmental quality benefits• Nuclear technology important in our lives

Nuclear Technology Status

• Improves medical diagnosis• Protects livestock health• Develops water resources• Preserves food• Promotes agricultural productivity• Cures human illness• Enhances human nutrition• Advances environmental science• Eradicates virulent pests• Strengthens industrial quality control• Provides energy for the hydrogen economy

Hydrogen

• Reduces dependency on foreign oil, gas– Worldwide production of fossil fuels (oil and gas)

expected to peak in 2007 and decline thereafter• Can be renewable energy’s best friend

– Serve as the battery for renewables– Overcome some of the limitations for solar, wind, hydro

and biomass

Hydrogen economy only makes sense if hydrogen is produced with non-fossil, non-emitting generation

Source: Dan Keuter, Entergy

Hydrogen from renewables

Method Needed for 1000 MW Electrical Land Area

(square miles) Photovoltaic 100 km2 @ 10% efficiency 40 Wind 3,000 Wind Turbines @ 1 MW ea. 40 - 70Biogas 60,000,000 pigs or 800,000,000 chickens

6,200 km2 of sugar beets 2,400Bioalcohol 7,400 km2 of potatoes 2,800

16,100 km2 of corn 6,200272,000 km2 of wheat 104,000

Bio-oil 24,000 km2 of rapseed 9,000 Biomass 30,000 km2 of wood 12,000Nuclear <1 km2 1/3Source: Dan Keuter, Entergy

Top 10 - Nuclear Issues

1. Financial markets2. High cost for first new plant3. Deregulation4. Current low electricity demand5. Lack of agility (construction time, licensing risk)6. Infrastructure (workforce, lack of momentum)7. Waste / transport8. Safety culture tuning9. Public perceptions (safety, security, terrorism,

proliferation)10. Never ending challenges (DB, TEPCO, Tokaimura)

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

AP1000 Twin Reactor Systems (2200 MWe each)

Cap

ital

Co

st (

2200

MW

e p

lan

ts)

Nth Plant EPC Cost Base Financing Costs FOAK Engineering Learning Curve Extra Financing Cost

Extra Financing Cost $228 $183 $171 $164 $0

Learning Curve $510 $304 $155 $68 $0

FOAK Engineering $350 $0 $0 $0 $0

Base Financing Costs $310 $283 $275 $270 $237

Nth Plant EPC Cost $2,031 $2,031 $2,031 $2,031 $2,031

1st 2nd 3rd 4th Nth

Target Level: $1100 / KWe = $2,420 million total for a 2200 MWe plant, w ith f inance costs

Illustrative Example: Capital Costs for AP1000s

Source: Scully Capital Services, 2002

Financial Issues

• Financial markets not prepared to finance high costs of first new plants

• Power company concerns about earnings dilution

• Concerns about delays in construction

• Concerns about recovering costs in a deregulated market

• No credits for non-financial benefits

Potential Mitigating Actions

• Equity investment, loans, loan guarantees,investment tax credits, accelerated depreciation

• “Standby credit facilities” for delays due to acts of government (regulator)

• Power purchase agreements

• Financial credits for non-financial benefits

Government Stimulation is Not New

• Stimulate restart of new construction

• Mitigate financial issues

• Risk mitigation by the government is common for all sorts of energy; not just nuclear

Federal Credit Program Examples Abound

Many agencies use federal credit approaches to achieve programmatic goals.Budget scoring is a fraction of credit authority based on “Subsidy rate”.Examples of federal credit programs:

FY2002Program Annual credit Subsidy rate

• Ginnie Mae: Mortgages $200.0 B 0.33%

• DOEd: Food direct loan program $21.6 B 4.00%

• SBA: General business loans $10.7 B 1.07%

• DOA: Rural utility electrification $2.6 B 1.13%

• DOT: TIFIA for transportation $2.0 B 4.50%

• NASA: Commercial space $15.0 B TBD transportation

Individual projects are evaluated by independent rating agencies before funding.

The Need for Realism

• Chemical Plant Hazards• Aircraft Crashes• Dirty Bombs• Terrorism• Plutonium• Waste and its transportation• Proliferation• Three Mile Island• Chernobyl

• The Public Needs to Be Well Informed!!

Nuclear power has best safety record

400-page study of 4,290 400-page study of 4,290 energy-related accidents: energy-related accidents: 15,000 deaths related to oil, 15,000 deaths related to oil, 8,000 related to coal, 5,000 8,000 related to coal, 5,000 related to gas. related to gas.

Paul Scherrer Institute, Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland, 2001Switzerland, 2001

Deaths from Accidents from Generating Electricity per Billion MWe-hr

101

39

10

1

Hydro

Coal

Gas

Nuclear*Includes Chernobyl*Includes Chernobyl

Percent Favor/Oppose Use of Nuclear EnergyAnnual Averages until 2002

Ref: Bisconti Research, Inc. (BRi)

5154 52 54 55

4649

61

5150

4748

524951

6258

6563 64

383536

4139

444445

5049

4246 43

39

30

36

2931 31

34

20

40

60

80

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

May-03

Favor Oppose

ANS Serves Members and the Public

• Outreach activities for educators and students– www.aboutnuclear.org web site for the public– 75 annual educator workshops and exhibits– Career exhibits and programs for students– Scholarships to 80 students at 21 universities

• Outreach to media– Interviews and press releases– ANS position statements

• Outreach to policymakers– Washington, DC Office

Grassroots Initiative

The Grassroots Initiative encourages you to reach out to three audiences in order to build positive public perception about nuclear science and technology

Policy Makers Media Educators

Schedule a meeting to offer your expertise and discuss current legislative issues.

Write your local newspaper a 150-250 word letter to the editor or a longer Op/Ed piece.

Schedule a Teacher Workshop, speak at a local school or presentat an area chamber of commerce.

In closing …

• Today’s challenges are the results of success . . . the success of a mature and productive nuclear industry that is on the verge not only of realizing the full potential of its first generation of existence, but of laying the foundation for another generation - a generation that will carry the industry from the fiftieth anniversary to the nuclear centennial - A. Howard

The American Nuclear Society

The Society for the advancement of nuclear science and technology

to benefit humanity

Top 10 Challenges for the Next Generation

• Continuing Professional Development and Life Long Learning

• Improving the breadth and depth of the technology• Maintaining the safety culture• Getting engaged with the Legislators - Civics 101;

influencing the political ideology of governing parties• Dealing with public opinion; changing the psychology /

playing field• Promoting realism• Dealing with future adverse events• Networking / mentoring• Having fun• Making a difference with your life / career

Solution to International Exchange Issues?

Documents

The American Nuclear Society The Society for the advancement of nuclear science and technology to benefit humanity