THE AIR WE BREATHE

Dahe JIANG

UNEP-Tongji Institute of

Environment for Sustainable Development

September 2005

1 From London Smog to Global Climate Change

1.1 Basics and Data

1.2 Effects of Air Pollution

1.3 Air Pollution: From Local to Global

1.4 More Than Global

Basics and Data

Gas % ppm

H2O 0~7CO2 0.032CH4 1.5CO 0.1O3 0.02

NH3 0.01NO2 0.001SO2 0.0002H2S 0.0002

Minor components of clean air Atmospheric stratification

Effects of Air Pollution

Effects on human healthAcute effectsChronic effects

Effects on natural environmentAcid rainOzone layer depletionGlobal warmingGlobal climate change

Effects of Air Pollution on Human Health

Respiratory, digestion, mucus, skin, and neural systems

1984 Bhopal accident

1986 Chernobyl

Air Pollution: From Local to Global

Air Pollution: From Local to Global

LOCAL EFFECT Soot and smoke

by heavy industry

URBAN & MULTICITY EFFECT

Photochemical smog

CROSS BOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION Acid rain and acidic

deposition

GLOBAL AIR POLLUTION ISSUES Stratosphere ozone layer

Global warming

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

CHANGES Global climate and

environmental changes

More Than Global

2 Air Pollution in Asia and the Pacific

2.1 Urban Air Quality

2.2 Acid Rain

2.3 Sandstorms

2.4 Atmospheric Brown Cloud

Urban Air Quality

The air in Asia’s cities is amongst the most polluted in the world: Calcutta, Jakarta, New Delhi, Shanghai and Tehran etc.

Particulate matter pollution;

Air pollution caused by automobile emission.

Poor air quality in urban areas

Vehicular emission related air pollution is getting severer

Acid Rain

Sand Storms

July 12, 2004

Atmospheric Brown Cloud

The 1997 forest fire

Aug. 12, 2005 forest fire in Indonesia again

Asia Brown Cloud

Atmospheric Brown Cloud

3 Air Pollution and Control in China

3.1 Air pollution situation

3.2 Ambient air quality standards and API

3.3 Two control zones and mass loading control

3.4 Energy use and industrial restructuring

3.5 Vehicular emission control

Air Pollution Situation

Urban air quality

Acid rain

Sand storms

Vehicular emission related air pollution

1985

Industrial air pollutant emissions in China (based on State of Environment Reports of SEPA)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Mil

lion

ton

s

SO2 Soot Dust

Air quality changes in Shanghai. Before 2000, the data for particulates were for TSP, and after 2001, the data are for PM10

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

mg

/m3

SO2

TSP- PM10

NO2

TSP

PM10

NO2

Coal consumption and SO2 emission in Shanghai

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Coal consumption (million tons)

SO2 emission (10000 tons)

With the replacement of natural gas for coal, SO2 concentration decreases in Beijing

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

SO

2 C

once

ntra

tion

mg/

m3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Nat

ural

Gas

Sup

ply

(bill

ion

m3)

Natural Gas Supply

SO2 Concentration

Ambient Air Quality Standards and Air Pollution Index

Three classes of ambient air quality standards: (1) reserved areas;

(2) residential areas ； (3) industrial areas and the areas near major

roads of transportation

Air pollution index (API)

Daily API report distribution

“Two-Control Zone” and Mass Loading Control

“Two-Control Zone” means the areas where SO2 and acid rain must be controlled;

Mass loading control;

Targets:(1) To 2000, SO2 emitting industrial sources should attain emission

requirements; mass-loading control should be put in practice; the SO2

concentrations of large cities should attain NAASQ standards; acid rain pollution worsening tendency should be mitigated.

(2) To 2010, the total amount of SO2 emission should keep the level of the year

2000; SO2 concentration for all urban areas should attain the requirement

of NAASQ; and the acid rain area with rain pH values smaller than 4.5

should be significantly reduced in comparison with that in 2000.

Energy Use and Industrial Restructuring

Coal, low sulfur content, formed…

Gasification

Centralized heating

Natural gas

Close, stop, change, move out heavily polluting factories

Vehicular Emission Control

Unleaded gasoline

Emission standards (Euro II, July 1, 2004)

Black effluent reporting

Old vehicle phase out

Transportation planning

– non-vehicle transportation

0.28 0.42 0.60 0.73 0.82 0.96 1.181.56

2.052.50

2.903.58

4.24

5.34

6.25

7.69

9.69

12.43

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Mil

lio

n C

ars

The increase in the number of private cars in China

4 Challenges and Opportunities

4.1 Growing economy and air pollution

4.2 Urban transportation

4.3 Renewable and alternative energy

4.4 Management and enforcement

4.5 International cooperation

4.6 Change to a new consumption mode

Growing Economy and Air Pollution

Energy and material consumption; urbanization; transportation

More investment; better technologies; self consciousness

Urban Transportation

Urban planning Urban density control Avoid over-suburbanization

Public transportation

Non-vehicle transportation

Renewable and Alternative Energy

Renewable energy, solar, hydraulic, wind…

Nuclear energy? Fuel cell ?

Energy efficiency

Table 3 Energy-economy indices of several countries of 2001

Country Population (million)

GDP (trillion USD)

Primary energy use (mtoe)

Energy consumption per capita (toe)

Energy consumption per unit GDP

USA 285.9 897.78 2281.4 7.98 0.25 France 60.9 180.49 265.6 4.36 0.15

Germany 80.3 270.33 315.1 4.26 0.13 British 58.8 133.48 235.2 4.00 0.18 Japan 127.2 564.77 520.7 4.09 0.09 China 1278.6 128.20 1155.9 0.90 0.90

Implementation and Enforcement

International Cooperation

Change to a new consumption mode

Town gas, larger apartment, air conditioning, car driving…

During the dark midnight….

Abrupt Climate Change

Schwartz and Randall, 2003 Global Business Network

When most people think about climate change, they imagine gradual increases in temperature and only marginal changes in other climatic conditions, continuing indefinitely or even leveling off at some time in the future.

5 Imagining the Unthinkable

The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly, with persistent changes in the atmospheric circulation causing drops in some regions of 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit in a single decade.

The graphic shows how abrupt climate change may cause human carrying capacity to fall below usage of the eco-system, suggesting insufficient resources leading to a contraction of the population through war, disease, and famine. (Schwartz and Randall, 2003)

Falling of human carrying capacity

THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR POWER - An Interdisciplinary Study MIT Study July 23, 2003

In our view, it would be a mistake at this time to exclude any of these four options from an overall carbon emissions management strategy.

We believe the nuclear option should be retained, precisely because it is an important carbon-free source of power.

The U.S. public is unlikely to support nuclear power expansion without substantial improvements in costs and technology.

These actions will be effective in stimulating additional investment in nuclear generating capacity if, and only if, the industry can live up to its own expectations of being able to reduce considerably overnight capital costs for new plants. We do not believe a convincing case can be made, on the basis of waste management considerations alone, that the benefits of advanced, closed fuel cycles will outweigh the attendant safety, environmental, and security risks and economic costs. Nuclear power should not expand unless the risk of proliferation from operation of the commercial nuclear fuel cycle is made acceptably small.

Retaining nuclear power stations

- Stewart Brand - MIT Technological Review, May 2005

Over the next ten years, I predict, the mainstream of the environmental movement will reverse its opinion and activism in four major areas: population growth, urbanization, genetically engineered organisms, and nuclear power.

6. Conclusion

Air pollution is a comprehensive global issue; Particulate matter, acid rain, vehicular emission, etc., are the main issues in this region;China is making efforts to combat air pollution, but coal as the main fuel and increasing use of vehicles continue to threaten the air quality;Management and enforcement are important;International cooperation is needed to control …Population, urbanization, development; lack of energy; --- new consumption mode is needed.