The Aging U.S. Workforce:The Aging U.S. Workforce:

Trends and Challenges

June 1, 20082008 IAJVS Annual Conference, Boston MA

The U.S. Population is AgingThe U.S. Population is Aging

As America Ages,So Does the U.S. WorkforceAs America Ages,So Does the U.S. Workforce

• 78 million Baby Boomers(born 1946-1964)

• Boomers comprise 46% of the U.S. workforce

• 78 million Baby Boomers(born 1946-1964)

• Boomers comprise 46% of the U.S. workforce

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Change in U.S. Population, 1950-1960 by Age GroupChange in U.S. Population, 1950-1960 by Age Group

36.8

9.9

-4.6

11.9

17.916.6

34.5

-10

0

10

20

30

40

% P

opul

atio

n Cha

nge

14 &under

15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 &older

Change in U.S. Population, 1960-1970 by Age GroupChange in U.S. Population, 1960-1970 by Age Group

3.3

48.7

10.5

-4.4

13.3

19.6 20.6

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

% P

opul

atio

n Cha

nge

14 &under

15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 &older

Change in U.S. Population, 1970-1980 by Age GroupChange in U.S. Population, 1970-1980 by Age Group

-11.5

16.3

46.4

10.7

-2.2

16.2

27.1

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

% P

opul

atio

n Cha

nge

14 &under

15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 &older

Change in U.S. Population, 1980-1990 by Age GroupChange in U.S. Population, 1980-1990 by Age Group

5

-12.8

16.4

46.1

9.9

-2.7

21.7

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

% P

opul

atio

n Cha

nge

14 &under

15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 &older

Change in U.S. Population, 1990-2000 by Age GroupChange in U.S. Population, 1990-2000 by Age Group

11.8

5.8

-7.6

20.6

50.3

15 12.6

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

% P

opul

atio

n Cha

nge

14 &under

15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 &older

Projected Change in U.S. Population,2000-2010 by Age GroupProjected Change in U.S. Population,2000-2010 by Age Group

-0.9

9.5

-4

-14.7

15.6

45.3

12.6

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

% P

opul

atio

n Cha

nge

14 &under

15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 &older

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Projected Change in U.S. Population,2010-2020 by Age GroupProjected Change in U.S. Population,2010-2020 by Age Group

8.6

-0.6

12.1

2.8

-13.4

18.2

35.1

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

% P

opul

atio

n Cha

nge

14 &under

15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 &older

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Oldest Boomers are Turning 60 this YearOldest Boomers are Turning 60 this Year

• In 2008, the oldest boomers will be able to get Social Security; in 2011, they will begin to turn 65

• In 2008, the oldest boomers will be able to get Social Security; in 2011, they will begin to turn 65

“The social and economicimplications of an aging population– and of the baby boom in particular– are likely to be profound for both individuals and society”

Louis Kincannon, Census Bureau Director

Labor and Talent Shortages and Related Challenges are Predicted in Certain Industries and Occupations

Labor and Talent Shortages and Related Challenges are Predicted in Certain Industries and Occupations

Examples of Critical Workforce Shortages and Challenges Affecting the NonProfit Community

Examples of Critical Workforce Shortages and Challenges Affecting the NonProfit Community

• Social Work Workforce: 62% of social workers are over 45 years of age as compared with 37% of the civilian labor force, and 29% of social workers are 55 years and older as compared with 14% of the civilian labor force. Major workforce challenges include replacing the large number ready to retire; recruiting new social workers; and retaining the current workforce in an increasingly stressful environment (National Association of Social Workers/Center for Workforce Studies)

• Behavioral Healthcare Workforce: Workforce problems are evident in every element and dimension of the behavioral health field – from projected shortfalls in skilled behavioral health professionals to difficulties in recruiting and retaining staff to a vacuum of future leaders (The National Action Plan on Behavioral Health Workforce Development/The Annapolis Coalition)

• Direct Care Workforce: A shortage of direct-care workers in long-term care - workers who provide care and support to persons with chronic diseases or disabilities is predicted to worsen as the baby boomers begin to retire and the number of people needing long-term care grows. Personal and Home Care Aides rank as the 8th fastest growing occupation from 2000-2010. (Institute for the Future of Aging Services; US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

• Social Work Workforce: 62% of social workers are over 45 years of age as compared with 37% of the civilian labor force, and 29% of social workers are 55 years and older as compared with 14% of the civilian labor force. Major workforce challenges include replacing the large number ready to retire; recruiting new social workers; and retaining the current workforce in an increasingly stressful environment (National Association of Social Workers/Center for Workforce Studies)

• Behavioral Healthcare Workforce: Workforce problems are evident in every element and dimension of the behavioral health field – from projected shortfalls in skilled behavioral health professionals to difficulties in recruiting and retaining staff to a vacuum of future leaders (The National Action Plan on Behavioral Health Workforce Development/The Annapolis Coalition)

• Direct Care Workforce: A shortage of direct-care workers in long-term care - workers who provide care and support to persons with chronic diseases or disabilities is predicted to worsen as the baby boomers begin to retire and the number of people needing long-term care grows. Personal and Home Care Aides rank as the 8th fastest growing occupation from 2000-2010. (Institute for the Future of Aging Services; US Bureau of Labor Statistics)

There will be fewer younger workersThere will be fewer younger workers

• Generation X, which follows the Boomers, is a smaller group – 26% of the workforce, according to the Census Bureau

Younger generations (X and Y) have different attitudes about careers and job satisfaction

• Generation X, which follows the Boomers, is a smaller group – 26% of the workforce, according to the Census Bureau

Younger generations (X and Y) have different attitudes about careers and job satisfaction

Many U.S. Employers Face Broad Workforce and Human Resource Challenges

Many U.S. Employers Face Broad Workforce and Human Resource Challenges

“Responding to the personnel tornado on the horizon”-Stateline.org

• Acute worker shortages in critical jobs, programs, and agencies

• Anticipated “brain drain” and loss of institutional memory

• Difficulty in recruiting skilled replacements• Lack of resources to replace talent gaps• Lack of flexible workplace options• Managing a multi-age workplace

“Responding to the personnel tornado on the horizon”-Stateline.org

• Acute worker shortages in critical jobs, programs, and agencies

• Anticipated “brain drain” and loss of institutional memory

• Difficulty in recruiting skilled replacements• Lack of resources to replace talent gaps• Lack of flexible workplace options• Managing a multi-age workplace

Challenges for Non ProfitsChallenges for Non Profits

• Projected Large Scale Executive Turnover ~ Three out of four executive directors plan to leave their jobs by 2011 (Ready to Lead? Next Generation Leaders Speak Out)

• Competition for Workers in Other (Aging) Industries who offer better pay and benefits ~ Projected labor shortages in federal and state government with nearly one half of federal and state employees eligible to retire at age 55 in 2008.

• Uncertain workforce pipeline that is willing and prepared to work in, and/or lead, nonprofit organizations. Nearly half of young nonprofit professionals responding to a survey say they plan to leave the non profit sector (Stepping Up or Stepping Out: A Report on the Readiness of Next Generation NonProfit Leaders/Young Nonprofit Professionals Network)

• Projected Large Scale Executive Turnover ~ Three out of four executive directors plan to leave their jobs by 2011 (Ready to Lead? Next Generation Leaders Speak Out)

• Competition for Workers in Other (Aging) Industries who offer better pay and benefits ~ Projected labor shortages in federal and state government with nearly one half of federal and state employees eligible to retire at age 55 in 2008.

• Uncertain workforce pipeline that is willing and prepared to work in, and/or lead, nonprofit organizations. Nearly half of young nonprofit professionals responding to a survey say they plan to leave the non profit sector (Stepping Up or Stepping Out: A Report on the Readiness of Next Generation NonProfit Leaders/Young Nonprofit Professionals Network)

How are Employers Across the Country Responding?How are Employers Across the Country Responding?

• Businesses with shortages (real or predicted) are setting in motion strategies to retain older workers, groom and develop existing workers (talent management), or look at ways to recruit new workers

• Businesses with no perceived labor/talent shortages

– Business as usual

• Businesses with no clue – no idea, no plans

• Businesses with shortages (real or predicted) are setting in motion strategies to retain older workers, groom and develop existing workers (talent management), or look at ways to recruit new workers

• Businesses with no perceived labor/talent shortages

– Business as usual

• Businesses with no clue – no idea, no plans

What Actions are Employers Taking?

Expand Their Recruitment Efforts

What Actions are Employers Taking?

Expand Their Recruitment Efforts

To cope with potential labor shortages, employers are expanding their efforts to recruit and reach:

• Youth • Women• Laid-off workers • Older workers • Welfare recipients • Veterans• Persons with disabilities • Ex-offenders

To cope with potential labor shortages, employers are expanding their efforts to recruit and reach:

• Youth • Women• Laid-off workers • Older workers • Welfare recipients • Veterans• Persons with disabilities • Ex-offenders

What Actions Are Employers Taking?

Increased Emphasis on Retention

What Actions Are Employers Taking?

Increased Emphasis on Retention

• In the SHRM 2004-2005 Workplace Forecast, retention issues did not appear on HR professionals list of top 10 concerns. In 2006, an emphasis on developing retention strategies for current and future workers was the employment trend rated “most likely to have a major impact on the workplace.”

This includes:Retaining baby boomersRetaining those likely to replace them

• In the SHRM 2004-2005 Workplace Forecast, retention issues did not appear on HR professionals list of top 10 concerns. In 2006, an emphasis on developing retention strategies for current and future workers was the employment trend rated “most likely to have a major impact on the workplace.”

This includes:Retaining baby boomersRetaining those likely to replace them

What Actions Are Employers Taking?

Succession Plans and Flexible Workplaces

What Actions Are Employers Taking?

Succession Plans and Flexible Workplaces

• 74% of employers said they have already or plan to develop succession plans and replacement charts

• 62% plan to provide flexible scheduling (job-sharing, tele-work, etc.)

• 50% of employers said they plan to provide opportunities for workers to transfer to jobs with reduced pay and responsibilities

• 49% plan to create or redesign positions that allow near-retirees to ease into retirement (phased retirement, bridge employment)

(Source: SHRM Workplace Forecast 2006)

• 74% of employers said they have already or plan to develop succession plans and replacement charts

• 62% plan to provide flexible scheduling (job-sharing, tele-work, etc.)

• 50% of employers said they plan to provide opportunities for workers to transfer to jobs with reduced pay and responsibilities

• 49% plan to create or redesign positions that allow near-retirees to ease into retirement (phased retirement, bridge employment)

(Source: SHRM Workplace Forecast 2006)

What Actions Are Employers Taking? Increased Emphasis on Training and Development

What Actions Are Employers Taking? Increased Emphasis on Training and Development

• 83% of employers surveyed by SHRM said they plan to invest more in training and development to boost skill levels of current employees, including both training in basic skills and specialized skills

• 84% of employers said they plan to provide continuous skills training for incumbent workers (to update workers’ skills and keep workers ahead of the curve)

• 71% of employers surveyed said they plan to make greater investments and make more use of e-learning

• 44% of employers surveyed said they plan to increase their involvement in local, state and national workforce readiness and development initiatives

(Source: SHRM Workplace Forecast 2006)

• 83% of employers surveyed by SHRM said they plan to invest more in training and development to boost skill levels of current employees, including both training in basic skills and specialized skills

• 84% of employers said they plan to provide continuous skills training for incumbent workers (to update workers’ skills and keep workers ahead of the curve)

• 71% of employers surveyed said they plan to make greater investments and make more use of e-learning

• 44% of employers surveyed said they plan to increase their involvement in local, state and national workforce readiness and development initiatives

(Source: SHRM Workplace Forecast 2006)

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