The 13th Meeting of The 13th Meeting of the Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysisthe Expert Group on Energy Data and Analysis

Chinese Taipei, 11-12 March 2002Chinese Taipei, 11-12 March 2002

Improving Oil Market Improving Oil Market TransparencyTransparency

The Oil Data InitiativeThe Oil Data Initiative

Improving Oil Market Improving Oil Market TransparencyTransparency

The Oil Data InitiativeThe Oil Data Initiative

Jean-Yves GarnierHead, Energy Statistics Division

International Energy Agency

Why a need for better oil statistics?Why a need for better oil statistics?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan-9

0

Jul-9

0

Jan-9

1

Jul-9

1

Jan-9

2

Jul-9

2

Jan-9

3

Jul-9

3

Jan-9

4

Jul-9

4

Jan-9

5

Jul-9

5

Jan-9

6

Jul-9

6

Jan-9

7

Jul-9

7

Jan-9

8

Jul-9

8

Jan-9

9

Jul-9

9

Jan-0

0

Jul-0

0

Jan-0

1

Jul-0

1

Evolution of oil prices ($/bl)Evolution of oil prices ($/bl)

Blame on statistics?Blame on statistics?

The Starting Point for Discussing TransparencyThe Starting Point for Discussing TransparencyInternational Meeting on Oil StatisticsInternational Meeting on Oil Statistics

IEA, 13-14 November 2000IEA, 13-14 November 2000

Organisations can solve part of the problems but need involvement from countriesOrganisations can solve part of the problems but need involvement from countries

Riyadh17-19 November 20007th International Energy Forum

Riyadh17-19 November 20007th International Energy Forum

The Oil Data Transparency Initiative The Oil Data Transparency Initiative

Technical Technical DiscussionDiscussion

PoliticalPolitical Call Call

The Oil Data Transparency InitiativeThe Oil Data Transparency Initiative

A Few MilestonesA Few Milestones

Paris 13-14 November 2000

Bangkok 2-3 April 2001

Vienna 10 May 2001

Joint Oil Data Exercise June-November 2001

Vienna 24 September 2001

Madrid 14-15 July 2000

Riyadh 10-12 November 2001

2

1

3

4

5

6

7

(+ countries)

(+ countries)

The Oil Data Transparency InitiativeThe Oil Data Transparency Initiative

A Few MilestonesA Few Milestones

Paris 13-14 November 2000

Bangkok 2-3 April 2001

Vienna 10 May 2001

Vienna 24 September 2001

Madrid 14-15 July 2000

Riyadh 10-12 November 2001

2

1

3

4

6

7

(+ countries)

(+ countries)

Joint Oil Data Exercise June-November 2001

Joint Oil Data Exercise June-November 2001

Country:Country:Month:Month: Unit:Unit:

JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE

Production

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Refinery Intake

Crude Oil

Stocks

Petroleum Products

LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel

OilFuel Oil Total Oil

Refinery Output

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Demand

Stocks

The Exercise: As Simple as PossibleThe Exercise: As Simple as Possible

Simple Definitions Simple Definitions

Month -1 and Month -2Month -1 and Month -2

Choice of units left to organisations Choice of units left to organisations

A Simple Format (42 data points) A Simple Format (42 data points)

6 Months6 Months

Starting in JuneStarting in June

6 Months6 Months

Starting in JuneStarting in June

The Joint Oil Data Exercise The Joint Oil Data Exercise June-November 2001June-November 2001

OrganisationA

OrganisationA

OrganisationB

OrganisationB

OrganisationC

OrganisationC

CountryA1

CountryA2 Country

A3

CountryB1

CountryB2

CountryB3

CountryC1 Country

C2

CountryC3

Interim MeetingInterim Meeting

ObjectivesObjectives

How many countries would be able to complete the table

How many countries would be able to submit M-1 data

What are the main difficulties encountered

What solutions could be proposed

ObjectivesObjectives

How many countries would be able to complete the table

How many countries would be able to submit M-1 data

What are the main difficulties encountered

What solutions could be proposed

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Participation:Participation: High, Except from some ProducersHigh, Except from some Producers

APEC 15/21

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Participation:Participation: High, Except from some ProducersHigh, Except from some Producers

Malaysia

Singapore

IndonesiaAPEC 15/21

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Participation:Participation: High, Except from some ProducersHigh, Except from some Producers

APEC

OECD

15/21

29/30

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Participation:Participation: High, Except from some ProducersHigh, Except from some Producers

APEC

OECD

15/21

29/30

Netherlands

Australia

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Participation:Participation: High, Except from some ProducersHigh, Except from some Producers

APEC

OECD

OLADE

15/21

29/30

10/26

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Participation:Participation: High, Except from some ProducersHigh, Except from some Producers

Venezuela

Caribbean

APEC

OECD

OLADE

15/21

29/30

10/26

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Participation:Participation: High, Except from some ProducersHigh, Except from some Producers

APEC

OECD

OLADE

OPEC

15/21

29/30

10/26

5/11

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Participation:Participation: High, Except from some ProducersHigh, Except from some Producers

Indonesia

Algeria

Iraq

KuwaitUAE

Venezuela

APEC

OECD

OLADE

OPEC

15/21

29/30

10/26

5/11

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Participation:Participation: High, Except from some ProducersHigh, Except from some Producers

APEC

OECD

OLADE

OPEC

UN

15/21

29/30

10/26

5/11

6/9

55 countries but a need to involve the key remaining ones 55 countries but a need to involve the key remaining ones

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Participation:Participation: High, Except from some ProducersHigh, Except from some Producers

Country:Country:Month:Month: Unit:Unit:

JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE

Production

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Refinery Intake

Crude Oil

Stocks

Petroleum Products

LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel

OilFuel Oil Total Oil

Refinery Output

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Demand

Stocks

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Completeness:Completeness: Depends on Flows and CountriesDepends on Flows and Countries

Unit:Unit:

Production

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Refinery Intake

Crude Oil

Stocks

Petroleum Products

LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel

OilFuel Oil Total Oil

Refinery Output

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Demand

Stocks

Country:Country:Month:Month:

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Completeness:Completeness: Depends on Flows and CountriesDepends on Flows and Countries

JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE

No major problems

No major problems

Unit:Unit:

JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE

Production

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Refinery Intake

Crude Oil

Stocks

Petroleum Products

LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel

OilFuel Oil Total Oil

Refinery Output

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Demand

Stocks

Country:Country:Month:Month:

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Completeness:Completeness: Depends on Flows and CountriesDepends on Flows and Countries

No major problems

Delays

No major problems

Delays

Unit:Unit:

Production

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Refinery Intake

Crude Oil

Stocks

Petroleum Products

LPG Gasoline KeroseneGas/Diesel

OilFuel Oil Total Oil

Refinery Output

Imports

Exports

Closing Change

Demand

Stocks

Country:Country:Month:Month:

Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Preliminary Results of the Exercise:Completeness:Completeness: Depends on Flows and CountriesDepends on Flows and Countries

A need to have all flows reportedA need to have all flows reported

JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE

No major problems

Delays

Confidentiality

No major problems

Delays

Confidentiality

A Need to Increase CommitmentA Need to Increase CommitmentFrom a Few Additional CountriesFrom a Few Additional Countries

Malaysia

Singapore

Indonesia

Algeria

Iraq

KuwaitUAE

Venezuela

Caribbean

APEC

OECD

OLADE

OPEC

UN

China

South Africa

Netherlands

The Way ForwardThe Way Forward(What Has Been Agreed in Riyadh)(What Has Been Agreed in Riyadh)

8th IEF, OsakaSep 2002

8th IEF, OsakaSep 2002

RiyadhNov 2001Riyadh

Nov 2001

Extra Countries

Extra Countries

93% 94%

70% 83%Production Consumption

The Way ForwardThe Way Forward(What Has Been Agreed in Riyadh)(What Has Been Agreed in Riyadh)

8th IEF, OsakaSep 2002

8th IEF, OsakaSep 2002

RiyadhNov 2001Riyadh

Nov 2001

More completedata (stocks)

More completedata (stocks)

Extra Countries

Extra Countries

Quality ChecksQuality Checks

A few global checks

Supply vs. Demand

Import vs. Export

A few global checks

Supply vs. Demand

Import vs. Export

The Way ForwardThe Way Forward(What Has Been Agreed in Riyadh)(What Has Been Agreed in Riyadh)

8th IEF, OsakaSep 2002

8th IEF, OsakaSep 2002

RiyadhNov 2001Riyadh

Nov 2001

More completedata (stocks)

More completedata (stocks)

Extra Countries

Extra Countries

Quality ChecksQuality Checks

MexicoMay 2002Mexico

May 2002IndustryIndustry

“Final” Quality Checks

“Final” Quality Checks

“Final” Product“Final” Product

Luxembourg MeetingLuxembourg Meeting25 January 200225 January 2002

Progress since Riyadh

Guidelines on data quality assessment

Joint “publicity” paper

Joint Website

Launching of a discussion for further harmonisation of definitions

The Mexico Meeting

Mexico, A Major Step Towards the SummitMexico, A Major Step Towards the Summit23-25 May 200223-25 May 2002

Day 1Thursday 23

Day 1Thursday 23

Day 2Friday 24

Day 2Friday 24

Day 3Saturday 25

Day 3Saturday 25

LunchLunch LunchLunch

Progress and problems since

Riyadh

OpeningOpeningFrom Mexico

to Osaka and beyond

How did it go for member countries?

Can solution be found to the

remaining issues?

What is Industry’s role

in data transparency?

ClosingClosing

Final Product: Some PrototypesFinal Product: Some Prototypes

Oct

Nov

Sep

Aug

July

June

Transparency: Transparency: A 4-Dimension IssueA 4-Dimension Issue

Transparency will only exist if:flows All flows are reported

products

All products are reported

countri

es All countries participate If all submissions are

timely

A Few Comments to Conclude (1/2)A Few Comments to Conclude (1/2)

It takes time to translate a call into action and results.

Concrete example of producer-consumer dialogue.

A lot has been done over the last 11 months: commitment, co-operation, work at national and organisational levels, meetings.

A lot remains to be done before the 8th International Energy Forum in September in Osaka.

A Few Comments to Conclude (2/2)A Few Comments to Conclude (2/2)

Sustainability of the exercise after Osaka.

Work and participation of APEC (APERC, EDMC, APEC Member Economies) to be commended.

Hope that many Member Economies and oil companies from APEC will be able to participate in Mexico.

Thank you.

What would be presented in Osaka? A final product

a call upon non-participating countries