Thayer The Vietnam Communist Party and Relations with China

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    TheVietnamCommunist

    PartyandSino

    e namese e a ons

    ProfessorCarlThayer

    Norwe ian Center for Human Ri hts

    TheUniversityofOslo,Oslo,Norway

    ep em er ,

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    OneOnePartyStatePartyState

    onoono rgan sa onargan sa ona oc a smoc a sm

    VietnamCommunistPart

    VietnamCommunistPart

    TheState

    TheStateArmedForces

    ArmedForces

    MassOrganisations

    MassOrganisations

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    PartyPowerStructurePartyPowerStructure

    >3.6

    >3.6 Congress

    Congress Central

    Central

    Politburo

    Politburomillion

    members

    millionmembers

    1,377delegates

    1,377delegates

    175+25members

    175+25members

    14members

    14members

    General

    General

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    4.00

    3.00

    3.50

    2.00

    2.50

    VCP Membershi

    1.00

    1.50

    (inmillions)

    0.00

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    6th

    1986

    7th

    1991

    8th

    1996

    9th

    2001

    10th

    2006

    11th

    2011

  • 8/4/2019 Thayer The Vietnam Communist Party and Relations with China

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    7.00%

    ar y em ers p y eg on

    5.00%

    6.00%

    3.00%

    4.00%

    1.00%

    2.00%

    0.00%

    SMD SCV SCH S NTB NRR NCV N

    , , ,

    NorthTayBac,NorthRedRiver,NorthCentralVietnam,North

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    180

    200

    140

    160

    80

    100VCPCCFullMembers

    40

    60

    0

    4th1976 5th1982 6th1986 7th1991 8th1996 9th2001 10th2006 11th2011

  • 8/4/2019 Thayer The Vietnam Communist Party and Relations with China

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    GenerationalChangeontheVCP

    CentralCommittee2011

    u mem ers

    retained

    Alternatemembers

    promoted

    Newfullmembers

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    SecretaryGeneral

    PrimeStateMinisterPresident

    ChairNationalAssembly

    PermanentSecretary

    Party

    CommitteeSecretariat

  • 8/4/2019 Thayer The Vietnam Communist Party and Relations with China

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    EdMalesky winningcoalitions

    STRATFOR actiona in ig tingreC ina

    LongLe threegroupingsthatdifferonwhat

    issocialistorientation

    AlexVuvin modernisers antiim erialistsandrentseekers

  • 8/4/2019 Thayer The Vietnam Communist Party and Relations with China

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    Stateshouldleadsociety statefirst

    upporte y san t em tary

    Integrationwithglobaleconomy EncourageFDIandentrepreneurship

    Integrationwithglobalcommunity

    Investinhumanresources,promotenewindustriesthatmeetinternationalstandards

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    Antiimperialists

    Modernisers

    Vuvin II RegimeConservatives

    o ern zers RentSeekers

  • 8/4/2019 Thayer The Vietnam Communist Party and Relations with China

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    SectoralCompositionoftheCentral

    Committee2011

    9%11%

    SeniorParty

    CentralParty

    State

    38%

    42%

    Secondary/Provin

    cial

    ArmedForces

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    PostsN=38

    Politburo

    CentralCommittee

    13

    2

    3

    5 Commissions

    Partymedia

    13

    2 MassOrganisation

    Secretariat

    InspectionCommittee

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    em ers o ng en ra

    StatePostsN=47

    11

    7

    17Cabinet

    National

    Assembly7

    5 ercen ra s a e

    MassOrganisation

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    em ers o ng os s n e

    MilitaryN=21(full&alternate)

    MinisterandDeputyMinisters

    6

    3

    2

    1

    MilitaryRegion

    2

    Other

    GeneralPolitical

    DepartmentGeneralStaff

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    PostsN=94

    1

    511 PartySecretary

    DeputyPartySecretary

    5720

    Regional

    DistrictPartySecretary

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    =

    PhungQuangThanh

    PhamQuangNghi

    NguyenTanDung

    NguyenSinhHung

    TranDaiQuang

    TongThiPhong NguyenPhuTrong

    NgoVanDu

    LeThanhHai

    NguyenXuanPhuc

    North:

    6,

    Centre

    4,

    and

    South

    4

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    GrowingPoweroftheOfficeofthePrime

    Minister

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  • 8/4/2019 Thayer The Vietnam Communist Party and Relations with China

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    M r

    Asymmery

    Viet Nam

    c now e gement of China

    Acknowledgement of

    Vietnamsautonomy

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    Longterm

    greements

    JointSteering

    CommitteeDefence ties

    HighlevelEconomic

    statevisits

  • 8/4/2019 Thayer The Vietnam Communist Party and Relations with China

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  • 8/4/2019 Thayer The Vietnam Communist Party and Relations with China

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    $11billiondeficit

    Economic

    and

    Trade

    9billion

    Relations

    surpluswiththe

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    VisitsbyCentralCommitteecommissions

    Ideologicalseminars

    GeneralDirectorateII(military

    intelligence)

  • 8/4/2019 Thayer The Vietnam Communist Party and Relations with China

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    High

    level

    visitsDefenceMinisters,ChiefofGeneralStaffetc.

    Navalportvisits

    ProfessionalMilitaryEducationandTraining

    Armssales Nationaldefenceindustrycooperation

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    Borderprovinces

    MilitaryRegionsalongborder

    Students(civilianandmilitary)

    Partymedia

  • 8/4/2019 Thayer The Vietnam Communist Party and Relations with China

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    SpecialEnvoyFebruary2011

    Deputy ea Centra Mi itaryCommittee

    JointCommitteeonBoundaryDiscussions SpecialEnvoyJune2011

    7roundssince2010

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    TheVietnamCommunist

    PartyandSino

    e namese e a ons

    ProfessorCarlThayer

    Norwe ian Center for Human Ri hts

    TheUniversityofOslo,Oslo,Norway

    ep em er ,