Thayer Vietnam Strategic Review 2006

8/14/2019 Thayer Vietnam Strategic Review 2006

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Vietnam: A Review

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to

United Services Institution of the A.C.T.

July 5, 2006


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Outline

1.Doi Moi: Twenty Years On2. The Military andDoi Moi3. Vietnams Regional Role


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1. Doi Moi: Twenty Years On

Economic Change

End of central planning Decollectivisation of agriculture Market economy with socialist orientations Encouragement of direct foreign investment Poverty reduction High GDP growth rates


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Doi Moi: Twenty Years On

Social Change

Commercialization of services State control of religion Ethnic minority unrestNegative phenomena Spread of the Internet


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Doi Moi: Twenty Years On

Political Change

Regularisation of politicsNew state Constitution (1992) and Electoral

Laws

Enhancing the role of the NationalAssembly and rule by/of law

Administrative reform of state apparatus Corruption


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Tenth Party Congress April 2006

Nong Duc Manh

re-elected Secretary General


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Corruption

Nam Camcriminal network2003Ministry ofTransport, PMU

18 scandal 2006


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Transparency International

Corruption Index

2001 75th of 91 countries 2002 85th of 102 countries 2003 100th of 233 countries 2004 102nd of 145 countries 2005 107th of 158 countries

Ranked above the Philippines, PNG,Ethiopia, Indonesia, Myanmar


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2. The Military and Doi Moi

Political Role

Defend the country and the socialist regime Dual-role elites (party-military-government) A bloc within the Vietnam Communist

Party and National Assembly

Central Military Party Committee Tong Cuc 2 military intelligence


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Dual Role Elites

Military delegates to10th National Party

Congress cast ballots

for the party

leadership

Military block onCentral Committee

(~10%)


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General Phung Quang Thanh

Member of the Politburo(April 2006)

Senior LT GEN (2003) Vice Minister of National

Defence and Chief of the

General Staff (2001-06)

Member of the Party CentralCommittee (2001-present)

Commander Military Region 1 Trained in the Soviet Union Minister of NationalDefence (June 2006)


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The Military and Doi Moi

Politburo Resolution No. 2 (1987)Withdrawal from Cambodia and LaosDemobilisationBudget

Disciplinary Problems Collapse of the Soviet Union


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Vietnams Defence Expenditure 1990-02


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The Military and Doi Moi

Economic and commercial activities Military professionalisation Defence diplomacy Limited force modernisation


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Defence Diplomacy

Cold War alignments USSR, Warsaw Pact states, China, Cuba

Non-Aligned Movement Burma, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos,Yugoslavia

Defence relations with more than 60countries (2003)

33 Defence Attaches accredited 22 Defence Attaches posted


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Defence Diplomacy

Accrediting of Defence Attaches Protocol visits Staff College/National Defence Institute

exchanges

Goodwill visitsExternal Relations DepartmentSong and Dance Ensemble

Naval ship visits


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High-Level Exchanges


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Trends in High-Level Exchanges


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Defence Diplomacy

Russian Federation, Belgium, Thailand

North Korea, Laos, Germany


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Density of High-Level Exchanges

44% ASEAN

20% Traditional Allies

17% Major Powers

China, United States, Japan

8% New Europe

11 % Other Asia, Africa, Middle Eastand Latin America and Others


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Naval Ship Visits, 1990-2005

7 India 6 Australia 5 France 5 United Kingdom 4 Thailand3 South Korea

3 United States 2 Italy

2 Malaysia 2 Russia 1 Canada 1 China 1 Indonesia1 Japan

1 New Zealand


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Memorandum of Understanding

Annual work plans exchange of visits, training, strategic dialogue, etc.

Address specific bilateral issues Border security (land and maritime) MIA repatriation; Cam Ranh Bay

Combined military activities Medical research Search and Rescue Coordinated naval patrols


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Defence Cooperation Agreements

India (1994 and 2000)

Russia (October 1998) Australia post-1999 United States (October 1996) Other DCAs

Bulgaria, Belgium, South Korea andGermany


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Vietnams Defence Expenditure, 1991-03


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Procurement and

Defence Industry Cooperation Spare Parts Storage Repair and Maintenance Refurbishment and Upgrading Education and Training Research and Development National Defence Industry cooperation Acquisition of new capabilities


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Sales and Servicing Contracts

Russian Federation (1994, 1998, 2003) Ukraine (2002) India (2002) Europe - Bulgaria, Czech, Finland, Poland ASEAN States Singapore Other Suppliers Israel, North Korea


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Air Force Modernization

Upgrade and modernise MiG-21and Su-22fighter/ground attack aircraft

Su-30 preferred air superiority fighterFunding a major constraintMay opt for less expensive Su-22

Upgrade of Su-27s and Su-30s with beyondvisual range air-to-air missiles

Military communications satellite?


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Air Force Modernisation

Czech L-39C Trainers MiG-21 FishbedUpgrades

Su-22 M4 FitterSu-27 UBK Flanker


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4 Su-30 MKKsFulcrums 2003


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Air Defence

S-300PMU1 (SA-10 Grumble) - 2003


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Deterrence

capability inSouth China

Sea


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TarantulClass (Type 1241)

4 acquiredfrom

Russia in

1996-98


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Anti-shipping Capability

Styx

missile

Sunburn

missile


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BPS 500 Fast Attack Craft (M)

2 acquired

1998 BPS 500

now under

production

in Vietnam


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Yugo-Class Midget Submarine


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Land Force Modernisation

Main Battle TanksFinland 70 (T-54 and T-55)Poland (150 T-72)

Multiple Rocket Launch SystemCzech

Upgrade U.S. era M113 APCsSingapore?


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Grad Multiple Rocket Launcher


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Short Range Ballistic Missiles?

Scud C ballistic missileReportedly sold by

North Korea


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3. Vietnams Regional Role

Political Bureau Resolution No. 13 (1988) 7th National Party Congress (1991) Membership in ASEAN and ARF Directions and Strategies for Defending

Vietnam in the New Era8th Central Committee Plenum (July 2003)


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Vietnams Neighbours

Laos special solidarity andcomprehensive cooperation

internal security,border control, MIAs Cambodia border security, MIAs China border security

Military Region commanders Coordinated naval patrols

Thailand maritime security


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Defence Relations with China

Normalisation of diplomatic relations(1991)

Long-term Cooperative FrameworkAgreement (1999)

looking to the future, boosting goodneighborly friendship and exploring all-around

collaboration

Coordinated naval patrols in Tonkin Gulf


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Defence Relations with China

First round of consultations on defensivesecurity (Beijing, April 2005)

Chinese Commission for Science,Technology and National Defence Industrydelegation visits Hanoi (July 2005)

General Phung Quang Thanh, CGS, visitsBeijing (July 2005)


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Defence Relations

with the United States

Recovery of Missing-in-Action (MIA)remains

Normalisation of diplomatic relations(1995)

Ministerial-level exchange visits IMET International Military Educationand Training


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U.S. Naval Port Visits

USS Curtis Wilbur,

Da Nang, July

2004

USS Gary, Saigon,

March 2005

USS Vandegrift,

Saigon,

November 2003


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Ministerial Exchange Visits

20002003

2006


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Defence Relations with the U.S.

15th Asia-Pacific Military MedicineConference held in Hanoi co-sponsored by

Vietnam and the U.S. (May 2005) Prime Minister Phan Van Khai meets with

President George Bush in Washington, D.C.

( June 21, 2005)

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeldvisits Hanoi (2006)


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Conclusion

Bringing the Military Back In VPA an important domestic political actor Military also a commercial actor Priority on naval, air defence and air force

modernisation

South China Sea contingencies Potential regional role ASEAN Rising China balance not containment


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Future Developments

PNTR status with the U.S. Membership in the World Trade

Organisation Host to APEC Summit Visit by President George BushNon-permanent membership on UN

Security Council Modest contribution to UN peacekeeping?


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Vietnam: A Review

Discussion

Questions and Answers

Documents

Thayer Vietnam Strategic Review 2006