Thailand Company Focus Dusit Thani Freehold and Leasehold ...dreit.listedcompany.com/misc/analyst-research/... · 6/4/2019 · and cities in Thailand (Phuket, Hua Hin and Chiang

ed: KK/ sa: PY, CS

BUY (Initiating Coverage)

Last Traded Price ( 31 May 2019): Bt5.95 (SET : 1,620.22)

Price Target 12-mth: Bt7.25 (22% upside)

Potential Catalyst: Rising occupancy, ADR growth, and new asset

acquisitions Analyst Thailand Research Team +662 857 7823; [email protected] Nantika WIANGPHOEM, CFA +66 28577836 [email protected]

Price Relative

Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (Btm) 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F

Gross Revenue 19.0 226 319 532 Net Property Inc 17.9 210 301 500 Total Return 16.5 180 213 301 Distribution Inc 16.5 186 218 314 EPU (Bt) 0.04 0.44 0.44 0.42 EPU Gth (%) nm 991 0 (4) DPU (Bt) 0.04 0.44 0.44 0.44 DPU Gth (%) nm 980 0 1 NAV per shr (Bt) 8.97 9.11 7.64 7.68 PE (X) N/A 13.5 13.5 14.0 Distribution Yield (%) 0.7 7.3 7.3 7.4 P/NAV (x) 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 Aggregate Leverage (%) 14.1 13.8 21.1 25.5 ROAE (%) N/A 4.9 4.7 5.5 Consensus DPU (Bt): N/A N/A N/A Other Broker Recs: B: 0 S: 0 H: 0

ICB Industry : Financials

ICB Sector: Real Estate Investment Trust

Principal Business: Hotel REIT

Source of all dataon this page: Company, DBSVTH, Bloomberg Finance L.P.

At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 409 Mkt. Cap (Btm/US$m) 2,436 / 77.8 Major Shareholders (%) Dusit Thani Pcl 30.0 Social Security Office 25.4 Muang Thai Insurance Pcl 5.1

Free Float (%) 39.2 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 0.02

DBS Group Research . Equity

4 Jun 2019

Thailand Company Focus

Dusit Thani Freehold and Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust Bloomberg: DREIT TB | Reuters: DREITu.BK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Attractive yields with long-term rental revenue • A REIT with three hotels under Dusit brand, located in prime

tourist destinations of Thailand: Phuket, Hua Hin, and Chiang

Mai

• New asset in Maldives valued at c. Bt2.4bn will enlarge the

REIT’s asset size to Bt6.6bn (54% increase), with DPU accretion

• DREIT’s well-diversified portfolio and long-term fixed rents

significantly lower its risk exposure

• Initiating coverage with BUY call with DCF-based TP of Bt7.25,

with IRR of 7.9%

All assets under DREIT are flagship hotels in prime tourist

destinations. DREIT initially invested in three hotels (2 freehold and

1 leasehold) - Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket, Dusit Thani Hua Hin,

Dusit D2 Chiang Mai. Total asset value is at Bt4.2bn, with 652

guest rooms. DREIT is in the process of acquiring a new asset,

Dusit Thani Maldives that has total of 95 villas. In our forecast, we

assume the value of new asset c. Bt2.4bn, funded by raised capital

of Bt1.7bn (at Bt5.5 per share) and additional debt of Bt0.7bn.

These assets are flagship hotels in the Dusit Thani Group and are

major revenue generators among Dusit-owned hotels. We believe

in their growth potential, given the strong Dusit brand, the hotels’

strategic location in popular tourist destinations and within

proximity to famous tourist attractions and shopping streets.

Well-diversified portfolio with long-term rental revenue. The new

asset will help diversify DREIT’s portfolio in terms of asset location

and revenue concentration, given its different tourism seasonality

and country-related risk exposure. DREIT will receive total fixed

rents (including new asset) of c. Bt429m p.a. at Bt32/USD as

security for its revenue until 2031 and c. Bt224m until 2040. This

helps ensure its revenue streams and distribution to its investors

and lower the impact of operational risks during a soft economy.

Offering attractive yields and IRR of 7.9%. DREIT offers generous

yields of 7.3% in FY19F and 7.4% in FY20F (assuming 97%

payout). Valuation: DREIT is trading at 22% discount to NAV of Bt7.64 in FY19F. We value DREIT at Bt7.25, based on DCF valuation (WACC:7.5% with no terminal growth). Key Risks to Our View: A volatile economy and increase in supply could lower occupancy and rental room rates, affecting DREIT’s earnings and distribution yields (note that DREIT will receive fixed rent until 2040)

Page 2

Company Focus

Dusit Thani Freehold and Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust

SWOT Analysis

Strengths Weaknesses

• Global brand: The Dusit hospitality brand offers world class, high-quality services with Thai-oriented style. The hotels under DREIT are rated five-stars. The brand has strong customer loyalty, with impressive returning guests at the hotels.

• Prime locations: DREIT’s hotels are all located in popular tourist destinations of Phuket, Petchaburi, Chiang Mai, and Maldives, within proximity to various tourist attractions, city centres and shopping areas that offer guests various conveniences, especially in terms of travelling and transportation.

• Diversified portfolio: DREIT’s investment in overseas assets could reduce impact of seasonality in tourism and country-related risk exposure. The combined portfolio could stabilise revenue and diversify DREIT’s country-related risk exposure to Maldives, instead of only Thailand.

• Long-term rental revenue: Dusit Thani Management Co., Ltd. (DMCO), a company under Dusit Group, has leased back all of DREIT’s hotels, with revenue guarantee for existing and new assets of 14 years and 21 years, respectively. These stable revenue streams would be assuring to DREIT’s investors.

• Highly experienced lessee and property manager: Dusit Thani PLC (DTC) is a property manager and also a lessee of DREIT’s assets as it is an ultimate shareholder with 99.99% stake in DMCO (DREIT’s asset lessee). It is a company with more than 70 years of experience in the hospitality business, with distinguished expertise in hotel management.

• Tourism seasonality: DREIT’s revenue is dependent on tourism seasonality. Thailand’s lowest season is usually the 3rd quarter (rainy season), while Maldives lowest season is usually the 2nd quarter (stormy season). During these periods, DREIT’s revenue would drop and rise again during peak seasons (4th and 1st quarter of the year).

• REIT size: DREIT’s fund size is relatively small compared to other REITs in the market. Its initial assets of Bt4.2bn are less attractive to large institutional investors.

Opportunities Threats

• New asset acquisition: DREIT may acquire or invest in any hotels and properties from DTC or other asset sponsors. New assets would enlarge the REIT’s size and increase its earnings.

• Thailand as ASEAN transportation hub: Thailand is a major transportation hub in the region and is considered an important transit or layover point for tourists. This increases opportunities for tourists travelling to Thailand. Growing tourist arrivals is an important factor for the future of the hospitality business.

• Economic uncertainties: Any negative impact arising from the economy may affect DREIT’s income and earnings (for example, exchange rate fluctuations (THB/USD).

• Increasing supply: Any increase in number of accommodations may lead to a more competitive landscape and could affect the growth/earnings of DREIT.

• External risks: An uncontrollable risk that may affect the REIT’s operations and earnings (e.g. previous boat accident in Phuket and natural disasters).

Source: DBSVTH

Page 3

Company Focus


Business Overview Converted to a REIT in FY17. DREIT was converted from Dusit

Thani Freehold and Leasehold Property Fund (DTCPF) to a

REIT in Nov 2017. The conversion was executed through a

new share issuance of 409.4m units and cash payment of

Bt433.9m to DTCPF shareholders. It utilised the share-

swapping method, with a 1:1 swapping ratio of DTCPF-to-

DREIT share unit and cash payment of Bt1.06 per DTCPF

share.

Initial assets of Bt4.2bn. DREIT initially invested in three hotels

under the DTC, its asset sponsor, property manager, and

lessee. The hotels are located in various tourist destinations

and cities in Thailand (Phuket, Hua Hin and Chiang Mai)

covering a total net leasable area (NLA) of 57,903 sqm, with

76% classified as freehold and 24% leasehold (based on total

asset value). The initial assets were valued at Bt4.2bn and

funded by raising Bt3.6bn (86%) capital and Bt0.6bn (14%)

debt.

Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket (freehold). DREIT invested Bt2.8bn

for the ownership rights to Dusit Thani Lugana Phuket, a five-

star luxury hotel. It is located at 390 Sri Soonthorn Road,

Cheong Ta-Lay sub-district, Talang district, Phuket. It has 226

total available rooms, with NLA of 16,605 sqm. It had an

average daily rate (ADR) of Bt4,874, revenue per available

room (REVPAR) of Bt3,348, with an occupancy rate (OR) of

69% in FY18.

The hotel was under major renovations for two full years in

2017-2018. It is now back to its normal operations and

services since the beginning of 2019.

DREIT: Performance of Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket

Source: Company, DBSVTH

Dusit Thani Hua Hin (22-year leasehold). DREIT has invested

Bt857m for the leasehold rights to Dusit Thani Hua Hin, a

five-star luxury hotel with a remaining lease period of 22

years (until 2040). The hotel is located at 1349 Petchakasem

Road, Cha-Am district, Petchaburi. It has 296 total rooms

available, with NLA of 29,601 sqm. It had ADR of Bt3,015,

REVPAR of Bt2,041, and OR of 68% in FY18.

DREIT: Performance of Dusit Thani Hua Hin


Dusit Thani D2 Chiang Mai (freehold). DREIT has invested

Bt376m for the ownership rights to Dusit Thani D2 Chiang

Mai, a five-star budget hotel. It is located at 100 Chang Klan

Road, Chang Klan sub-district, Muang district, Chiang Mai. It

has 103 total rooms available, with NLA of 11,697 sqm. It

had ADR of Bt2,61, REVPAR of Bt2,114 and OR of 81% in

FY18.

DREIT: Performance of Dusit D2 Chiang Mai


Rental revenue of existing assets. Dusit Thani Management

Company Limited (DMCO), a subsidiary of DTC (with 99.99%

stake in DMCO), has leased back all of DREIT’s existing assets

(Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket, Dusit Thani Hua Hin, and Dusit

Thani D2 Chiang Mai). It has hired DTC as a property

manager. The rents are divided into; (i) fixed rent and, (ii)

variable rent.

3,73

4

3,69

0

3,57

0

3,15

5

3,01

5

2,34

0

2,49

5

2,33

5

2,03

4

2,04

1

63%68% 65% 64%

68%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Bt)

ADR REVPAR OR (%)2

,71

7

2,8

03

2,9

08

2,8

32

2,6

17

1,9

99

2,3

58

2,3

71

2,2

25

2,1

14

74%

84% 82%79% 81%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Bt)

ADR REVPAR OR (%)5,14

8

4,96

3

4,41

4

4,98

5

4,87

4

4,04

9

3,32

7

3,21

4

3,14

9

3,34

8

79%

67%73%

63%69%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Bt)

ADR REVPAR OR (%)

Page 4

Company Focus


(i) The fixed rent is Bt205m per annum, representing

revenue (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation

and amortisation (EBITDA)) guarantee to DREIT for 14

years between 2018-2031 (end of contract between

DREIT and DMCO).

(ii) The variable rent of existing assets is equal to the excess

revenue (EBITDA) over the fixed rent. DREIT will receive

85% of the variable rent in 2018-2022 and 80% in

2023-2031. The balance (15% and 20%) of variable rent

in these respective periods will go to DMCO as a share of

revenue for the lessee.

In any case where the total revenue (EBITDA) of the existing

assets falls below Bt205m per annum, DMCO has agreed to

compensate for the revenue to at least equal the fixed rent.

From 2032 onwards, we believe that DREIT will extend/renew

its agreement with DMCO on the same terms and conditions

(fixed rent of Bt205m and 20% revenue sharing with its

lessee).

In our forecast, we assume fixed rent of Bt205m and variable

rent at 80% of excess revenue from 2032 onwards.

New asset (1st investment) of c. Bt2.4bn (40-year leasehold).

DREIT is in the process of acquiring a new asset, Dusit Thani

Maldives. The hotel started its operations in Feb-2012. It is

located on the Mudhdhoo Island, Baa Atoll, Republic of

Maldives, with 95 total villas available. It had ADR of USD526

(or Bt16,779 at Bt32/USD), REVPAR of USD444 (or Bt14,018

at Bt32/USD), and OR of 84% in FY18.

DREIT: Villa types at Dusit Thani Maldives

Villa units sqm

Beach villa 9 1,098

Beach villa with pool 10 1,220

Beach deluxe villa with pool 17 2,074

Water villa with pool 30 4,500

Ocean villa with pool 20 3,600

Two-bedroom family beach villa 5 2,000

Two-bedroom ocean pavilion 2 740

Two-bedroom beach residence 1 560

Three-bedroom beach residence 1 690

Total 95 16,482


Page 5

Company Focus


The new asset acquisition cost shall be no more than

Bt2,385.6m or USD74.55m at a fixed exchange rate of

Bt32/USD. This implies a 5% premium over the lowest

appraised value of Bt2,272m (or USD71m at Bt32/USD)

among two independent appraisers.

This new asset will be funded by raising capital of no more than 365m units of new share issuance, implying Bt2bn at a referred offering price of c. Bt5.5 per share. In our forecast, we assume that the new asset will cost Bt2,385m, funded by raised capital of Bt1,650m (assuming new share issuance of 300m units at Bt5.5 per share), and an additional debt of Bt735m.

DREIT: Performance of Dusit Thani Maldives


Rental revenue of new asset. Dusit Maldives Management

Company Limited (DMS3) will sub-lease Dusit Thani Maldives

from DMS2. It will hire DTC as a property manager. DMS3

would be obliged to provide; (i) fixed rent and, (ii) variable

rent to DREIT.

(i) The fixed rent is USD7m per annum (or Bt224m at

Bt32/USD), representing revenue (EBITDA) guarantee to

DREIT for 21 years in 2020-2040.

(ii) The variable rent of the new asset is equal the excess

revenue (EBITDA) over the fixed rent. DREIT will receive

90% of the amount in; the balance 10% will go to

DMS3 as share of revenue for the lessee.

However, in any case where the total revenue (EBITDA) of the

new asset falls below USD7m per annum (or Bt224m at

Bt32/USD), DMS3 has agreed to compensate for the revenue

to at least equal the fixed rent.

From 2040 onwards, we believe that DREIT will extend/renew

its agreement with DMS3 on the same terms and conditions

(fixed rent of USD7m and revenue 10% revenue sharing with

its lessee).

In our forecast, we assume fixed rent of USD7m and variable

rent at 90% of excess revenue from 2040 onwards.

21,0

62

20,6

91

18,1

66

16,5

77

16,7

79

13,6

85

12,9

95

12,1

91

12,5

97

14,0

18

65% 63%67%

76%84%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

(Bt )

ADR REVPAR OR (%)

Page 6

Company Focus


Background of new asset. Maldives’ government originally

granted a 48-year (from 2012-2059) leasehold rights of the

Mudhdhoo Island to DMS Property Investment Private Limited

(DMS), a subsidiary of DTC.

DMS then sold its remaining 40-year leasehold rights (2020

until 2059) to Dusit Maldives Investment Private Limited

(DMS2), a company incorporated under Maldives law and

owned by Dusit Thai Property PLC (DTPP) and MBK Hotel and

Resort Co., Ltd. (MBK).

DMS2 will then sub-lease this 40-year leasehold rights to

Dusit Maldives Management Company Limited (DMS3), a

company incorporated under Maldives Law and solely owned

by DMCO (lessee of DREIT’s existing assets). Therefore, it can

be implied that DMCO is a lessee of the new asset under

DMS3.

DREIT: Investment structure of new asset

New asset investment strcuture of DREIT

in Bt in USD

Equity (100% shares acquisition) Bt4.8m USD0.15m Debt Bt2,380.8m USD74.4m

Total Bt2,385.6m USD74.55m

*Fixed exchange rate at Bt32/USD as agreed upon between DREIT and DMS2


DREIT’s investment structure in new asset. DREIT will invest in

the remaining 40-year leasehold rights of Dusit Thani

Maldives through the acquisition of DMS2 (100% shares

outstanding) and offering shareholder loan to DMS2. The

total of DMS2 acquisition and shareholder loan will be the

same as the new asset acquisition, no more than Bt2,385.6m

or USD74.55m at a fixed exchange rate of Bt32/USD.

By investing in this new asset, DREIT will follow the process of

the following investment structure:

(i) To acquire 100% of outstanding DMS2 shares from

DTPP and MBK at no more than c. USD0.15m (or Bt4.8m

at a fixed exchange rate of Bt32/USD).

(ii) To provide DMS2 with shareholder loan of Bt c.

USD74.4m (or Bt2,380.8m at a fixed exchange rate of

Bt32/USD) to settle debts with DMS for the acquisition of

the leasehold rights of Dusit Thani Maldives.

As a result, DMS2 would become a subsidiary of DREIT.

Through DMS2, DREIT would obtain the leasehold rights of

Dusit Thani Maldives and the right to receive rental fees from

DMS3.

DREIT: Holdings structure of Dusit group


Lessee

DMCO

Dusit Thani PLC (DTC)

99.99% shareholdings

Sub – Lessee

DMS3

100% shareholdings

Company

DMS2

REIT

30.02% shareholdings

Sub-lease

(i) 100% shareholdings(ii) Shareholder loans

Thailand

Maldives

AssetLease

Post-transaction

Page 7

Company Focus


Tax payment. DREIT will be responsible for; (i) corporate income tax (CIT) on DMS2’s net profit, (ii) taxes on distribution received from DMS2 in terms of dividend, interests and principal repayment (see tax regime in the table below). The revenue (EBITDA) received from DMS2 are pre-tax revenue; therefore, the fixed rent of USD7m and variable rent are subject to CIT payment before being consolidated at DREIT level.

DREIT: Taxes Regime

Tax regime at DMS2 and DREIT

Step 1: Maldives

Company Taxable income/expenses Tax rate

DMS2

Rental income No

Less: property expenses No

Less: Interest payment (finance cost) No

Net (loss) profit 15%, CIT

Others

Principal repayment No

Dividend (from net profit) No

Step 2: Thailand

Company Taxable income/expenses Tax rate

DREIT

Dividend received from DMS2 No

Interest income received from DMS2 3.3%, specific business tax

Less: REIT management fee No

Net (loss) profit No

Others

Dividend (from net profit) WHT


DREIT: Assets details

Existing asset New asset

Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket Dusit Thani Hua Hin Dusit D2 Chiang Mai Dusit Thani Maldives Total

Location Talang, Phuket Cha-am, Petchburi Muang, Chiang Mai Mudhdhoo Island, Baa Atoll

Brand Dusit Thani Dusit Thani Dusit D2 Dusit Thani

Star rating 5 5 5 5

Acquisition cost (Bt m) 2,801 857 376 2,385.6 6,419.6

No. rooms/ villas 226 296 130 95 747

Type of ownership Freehold leasehold (22 years)

Freehold leasehold (40 years)

Term 2019-2031 2020-2040

Fixed rent Bt205m USD7m (c. Bt224m) c. Bt429m

Lessee DMCO

(99.99% shareholding by DTC)

DMS3 (100% sharesholding by

DMCO)

DTC (ultimate lessee)

Property manager DTC DTC DTC


Page 8

Company Focus


DREIT: Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket


DREIT: Dusit Thani Hua Hin


https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjw-bDUnsLiAhVLMI8KHeR1DIcQjRx6BAgBEAU&url=http://24lifemagazine.com/dusit-thani-laguna-phuket-decent-location-great-breakfast/&psig=AOvVaw2bGmNHYDwiIuGoG1hrqktV&ust=1559141890981506

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi_gvmHn8LiAhWHYo8KHSNrDVMQjRx6BAgBEAU&url=http://thepoolvillasphuket.dusit.com/&psig=AOvVaw2bGmNHYDwiIuGoG1hrqktV&ust=1559141890981506

Page 9

Company Focus


DREIT: Dusit D2 Chiang Mai

DREIT: Dusit Thani Maldives


Page 10

Company Focus


Company Background

Corporate History. DREIT launched its initial public offering

(IPO) on 23 Nov 2017 and was listed on the Stock Exchange

of Thailand (SET) on 15 Dec 2017 (first trading date), with

total registered capital of Bt3.66bn. The REIT focuses on

investments in freehold and leasehold properties, especially

hotels and related businesses.

DREIT was converted from Dusit Thani Freehold and

Leasehold Property Fund (DTCPF) in Nov 2017. This was

executed through share-swapping, with 409.4m new shares

issued and cash paid to DTCPF unitholders.

The REIT has a policy of searching for potential assets

continuously, as well as constantly renovating and uplifting

the quality of its existing assets to generate long term

sustainable income and returns to the REIT’s unitholders.

DREIT: REIT Structure


About DREIT’s sponsor/lessee/property manager. Dusit Thani

Public Company Limited (DTC) has over 70 years of

experience in hotels and the hospitality business. DTC has

created its own well-established hotel brand called ‘Dusit

Thani’, representing luxurious and high-quality hotels with

Thai heritage and interior design.

It currently operates 269 properties, with nine owned-hotels

and 260 management contracts/franchises in 13 countries

around the world. It also established a hospitality education

business for over 25 years under ‘Dusit Hospitality Education’.

DTC’s policy is to diversify and expand into other hotel-

related businesses through asset-light initiatives and lease

model. Currently, its business structure covers 5 major areas

including hotel, education, mixed-used project, food, and

others (venture capital and hospitality services).

About the REIT manager. Dusit Thani Properties REIT Co., Ltd.

is a company registered and incorporated in Thailand with

registered paid-up capital of Bt10m. DTC is a major

shareholder in DMCO with 99.99% stake of the total paid-up

capital.

REIT

Invest

Rent AssetAssetLessee

HOTEL MANAGER

DMCO

Manage Asset

Base Management feeIncentive fee

Base Management feeIncentive fee

Asset

Company Lessee

HOTEL MANAGER

Lease asset

Manage asset

Rental Fees Rental Fees

DMS2 DMS3

Page 11

Company Focus


DREIT: REIT Summary

Name Dusit Thani Freehold and Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust

Ticker DREIT

Assets Type Hotels

Ownership Leasehold and Freehold

Assets Sponsor Dusit Thani PLC (DTC)

Initial Assets Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket (freehold)

Dusit Thani Hua Hin (leasehold 20 years)

Dusit D2 Chiang Mai (freehold)

New asset Dusit Thani Maldives (leasehold 40 years)

REIT Manager Dusit Thani Properties REIT Co., Ltd.

Property Manager Dusit Thani PLC (DTC)

Lessee Dusit Thani Management Company Limited (DMCO)

Trustee Krungthai Asset Management

Financial Advisors IV Global Securities PCL (existing assets)

CIMB (Thailand) PCL (new asset)

Appraisers Knight Frank

HVS by Nexus

Auditor KPMG Phoomchai Audit Co., Ltd

Asset size (initial asset) Bt4.2bn

Borrowings (initial asset) Bt0.7bn

Asset size (new asset) c. Bt2.4bn

Borrowings (new asset) c. Bt0.7bn

Asset size (post-acquisition) c. Bt6.6bn

Borrowings (post-acquisition) c. Bt1.4bn

Dividend payout policy No less than 90% of adjusted net profit


Page 12

Company Focus


Competitive Strengths Global Dusit brand. Customers are well aware of the

premium/global standards and Thai heritage of the Dusit

brand. All Dusit Thani hotels under DREIT are flagship hotels

with five-star rating. Their unique Thai oriented-identity is

through interior design, decoration and services. Dusit is a

preferred brand when it comes to premium and high-quality

hotels and services.

Diversified portfolio. DREIT’s investment in overseas assets

could help reduce impacts of seasonality and country-related

risks. The 3rd quarter is normally low season in Thailand, in

Maldives it is in the 2nd quarter. Thus, we believe the new

asset would provide some balance to its portfolio and help

diversify DREIT’s country-related risks and exposure (currently

limited to only Thailand).

DREIT: EBITDA proportion (%) in 2018


The new asset in Maldives would also reduce the

concentration of its guests’ nationalities. Thais are the major

customers at all hotels under DREIT (especially Dusit Thani

Hua Hin). In 2018, Thai customers accounted for 32% of

total room nights at existing assets; however, the proportion

of Thai customers for the combined portfolio was lower at

28% of total room nights and the Chinese customers

increased from 13% to 16% (existing vs. combined

portfolio).

DREIT: Nationality (%) of hotel guests in 2018


Prime locations of assets. DREIT’s assets (including its new

asset) are located in popular tourist destinations (Phuket,

Maldives, Chiang Mai, and Hua Hin), with proximity to well-

known tourist attractions. This provides customers with

conveniences in travelling, sightseeing and transportation,

and could persuade customers to choose Dusit hotels over

other competitors with equivalent services and standards.

• Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket is located in Bang Tao

beach, with proximity to the city centre, Pa Tong

beach (popular tourist attraction), and Phuket

International Airport (16 km away).

• Dusit Thani Hua Hin is located between Cha-am

district, Petchaburi province and Hua Hin district,

Prachuap Khiri Khan province. It has proximity to

the city centre, shopping streets and markets in Hua

Hin district, and is a 2.5hr drive from Bangkok.

• Dusit Thani D2 Chiang Mai is located in the city

centre of Chiang Mai, with proximity to the night

bazaar market (the most famous shopping street in

Chiang Mai), wide variety of cafes and restaurants.

Long-term rental revenue. DMCO has leased back all DREIT’s

assets with an agreement to provide; (i) fixed rents of Bt205m

and USD7m (or Bt224m at Bt32/USD) for its existing assets

and new Maldives asset, (ii) variable rents, the excess of

actual revenue (EBITDA) over the fixed rents.

The variable rents will be shared between DREIT and DMCO

at rates of 85% (2018-2022) and 80% (from 2023 onwards)

for existing assets, and 90% (2020-2059) for the new

Maldives asset.

62%

6% 5%

26%

49%

11% 13%

26%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18

EBITDA - Portfolio (existing assets)

EBITDA - Portfolio (included new asset)

32%

17%13%

38%

28%

17% 16%

39%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Thailand EU China Other

Portfolio (existing assets) Portfolio (included new asset)

Page 13

Company Focus


If revenue (EBITDA) falls below the fixed rents (as mentioned

above), DMCO has agreed to compensate for DREIT to at

least receive the fixed rents.

This implies long term revenue streams for DREIT over two

decades (2020-2040). The fixed rents not only secure stable

income; but also allow DREIT investors to enjoy fixed income

from DMCO during low seasons.

DREIT: Fixed and variable rents from lessee

Existing asset New asset Total

Fixed rent Bt205m USD7m

(c. Bt224m at Bt32/USD)

Bt429m

Variable rent (% EBITDA net fixed rent)

2018-2022: 85% 2023-2031: 80%

2020-2040: 90%


Highly experienced and established property manager. DTC is

the ultimate lessee for all assets under DREIT as it holds a

99.99% stake in DMCO (the lessee of DREIT’s existing assets

and its new asset in Maldives). DTC is also the property

manager for all of DREIT’s assets. As a distinguished

hospitality group, DTC has the expertise/experience of

operating and managing hotels and other hospitality

properties for over 70 years. It currently has 269 properties in

13 countries under its operations and 60 management

contracts in its pipeline.

100% insured. The assets under DREIT are fully covered by

all-risks insurance, including any business interruption, public

liabilities and political violence. This should help prevent

operational risks that might affect hotel operations and

earnings of DREIT.

Tourism overview Thailand: Tourism overview. In 2018, total tourism income

continued to grow at 11.6% to Bt3.07tn (from Bt2.75tn in

2017), despite a global economic slowdown. This comprised

revenue contribution from foreign tourists of Bt2tn and Thai

tourists of Bt1.07tn.

Thailand: Tourism income in 2018

Tourists (Bt tn) 2017 2018 % growth YoY

Thai 0.93 1.07 7.9%

Foreign 1.82 2 9.6%

Total 2.75 3.07 11.6%

Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sport, Thailand, DBSVTH

• Foreign tourists. Tourist arrivals increased 7.5% y-o-y to

38.23m in 2018. The total revenue from tourists’

spending grew 9.6% y-o-y to Bt2tn (from Bt1.82tn in

2017), at an average daily spending of Bt5,557 (+3.43%

y-o-y).

The majority of tourists travelling to Thailand were from

China, with 10.5m visitors (+7.4% y-o-y) accounting for

27.5% of total tourists in 2018. Chinese tourists are the

largest contributors to Thailand’s tourism revenue at

Bt0.58tn (+11.5% y-o-y) in 2018.

We expect foreign tourists to increase y-o-y (majority

Chinese tourists) and their spending to continue rising in

2019 in low-to-medium growth. We maintain our

neutral outlook on Thailand’s overall tourism sector.

• Local tourists. Thailand’s domestic tourism remained

positive. The number of Thai tourists’ spending rose

7.9% y-o-y to Bt1.1tn in 2018 (from Bt0.93tn in 2017).

We believe that Thai’s domestic tourism will continue to

rise in 2019, stemming from the government policy of

‘Amazing Thailand Go Local’. The government is

providing tax incentives to support and encourage Thai

tourists to travel to non-tourist destinations in Thailand.

• Occupancy. The average occupancy rate (OR) of all

available guest rooms rose to 70.9% in 2018 from

68.9% in 2017, with an increase in total number of

guests staying in Thailand to 166m in 2018 from 158m

in 2017.

Page 14

Company Focus


Thailand: Avrg. OR (%) and no. of guests


Phuket: Strong competition in the hotel and accommodation

segment has continued since 2016, mainly due to a large

market supply. However, the number of tourist arrivals

continued to rise in 2018 despite the boat accident in Jul-

2018 that caused a decline in Chinese tourists (majority

tourists). Moreover, total tourism revenue continued to grow

12.8% y-o-y to Bt477bn, with Thai tourists contributing

Bt53bn and foreign tourists Bt424bn

We maintain our positive outlook in 2019 due to increasing

number of tourists from Malaysia, Russia and India which we

believe will boost tourist arrivals and revenue.

• Demand. In 2018, tourist arrivals rose to 14.4m

(+2.6% y-o-y) with 4.1m Thai tourists (+3.8% y-o-y)

and 10.3m foreign tourists (+2.2% y-o-y).

Phuket: Tourist arrivals in 2015-2018


• Supply. Total number of accommodations dropped

1.9% y-o-y to 1,930, resulting in a drop in total

number of key rooms by 0.9% y-o-y to 96,143 rooms

in 2018.

• Occupancy. The average OR in Phuket rose 0.5% to

75.7% in 2018 from 75.2% in 2017; total number of

guests increased to 12.7m in 2018 from 12.5m in

2017.

Phuket: Avrg. OR (%) and no. of guests


Chiang Mai: It is a popular tourist destination for both Thai

and foreign tourists based on the annual growth of tourist

arrivals, spending and occupancy rates. Its popularity is

expected to continue in 2019. Total tourism revenue of

Bt108bn (+9% y-o-y) was contributed by Thai tourists

(Bt66bn) and foreign tourists (Bt42bn).

• Demand. In 2018, tourist arrivals rose to 10.8m

(+4.3% y-o-y), with 7.6m Thai tourists (+4.5% y-o-y)

and 3.2m foreign tourists (+3.8% y-o-y).

Chiang Mai: Tourist arrivals in 2015-2018


Page 15

Company Focus


• Supply. Total number of key rooms grew 0.9% to

38,096 rooms and total number of accommodations

rose 1.4% to 855 premises. Hotels rooms accounted

for 48% of total accommodations and 68% of total

key rooms.

• Occupancy. The average OR in Chiang Mai rose 2.1%

to 76% in 2018 from 73.9% in 2017; total number of

guests rose to 8.3m in 2018 from 8m in 2017.

Chiang Mai: Avrg. OR (%) and no. of guests


Hua Hin (Prachuap Khiri Khan-province): The 2019 outlook is

positive for this destination. The majority of tourists travelling

to Hua Hin are Thai and would receive tax benefits from the

‘Amazing Thailand Go Local’ campaign. We expect tourist

arrivals and revenue, especially from local visitors, to continue

growing in 2019. Total tourism revenue of Bt43bn (+8.6% y-

o-y) was contributed by Thai tourists (Bt29bn) and foreign

tourists (Bt14bn).

• Demand. In 2018, tourist arrivals rose to 7.2m (+5.3%

y-o-y), with 5.9m Thai tourists (+5.9% y-o-y) and 1.2m

foreign tourists (+2.5% y-o-y).

Hua Hin: Tourist arrivals in 2014-2018

Note: Excluding Cha-Am sub-district in 2014-2015 Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sport, Thailand, DBSVTH

• Supply. Total number of key rooms grew 1.6% to

17,167 rooms and total number of

accommodations rose 1.5% to 558 premises. Hotels

accounted for 35% of total accommodations and

56% of total key rooms.

• Occupancy. The average OR in Hua Hin rose 1.9%

to 66.8% in 2018 from 65.4% in 2017; total

number of guests rose to 4.3m in 2018 from 4.2m

in 2017.

Hua Hin: Avrg. OR (%) and no. of guests


Page 16

Company Focus


Maldives: Tourist arrivals in Maldives grew in 2014-2018,

with compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9%. We

continued to see increasing tourist arrivals in Jan-Apr 2019,

with growth of 19.7% y-o-y. We anticipate positive outlook

on Maldives’ tourism sector in 2019

• Demand. In 2018, tourist arrivals rose to 1.5m (+6.8%

y-o-y). The majority of tourists were from Europe

(accounting for 49% of total tourists), with 12.4% y-

o-y growth to 0.7m and from Asia Pacific (accounting

for 42% of total tourists), with 0.7% y-o-y growth to

0.6m.

Maldives: Tourist arrivals in 2014-2018

Source: Ministry of Tourism, Republic of Maldives

• Supply. Total number of accommodations by bed

count grew 8.6%% to 41,887 beds in 2018.

Resorts/marinas and hotels accounted for 18% and

15% of total accommodations respectively.

• Occupancy. The average OR in Maldives rose 1% to

62.1% in 2018 from 61.1% in 2017, at an average

duration of stay of 6.4 days in 2018 (vs. 6.2 days in

2017).

Maldives: Avrg. OR (%) and no. of guests

Source: Ministry of Tourism, Republic of Maldives

Page 17

Company Focus


Growth Strategies Boosting occupancy rates. We expect to see an increase in

DREIT’s OR, especially for its existing assets after major

renovations in 2017-2022 (a typical major renovation cycle is

every 10 years). DREIT is expected to implement only annual

renovations and maintenance for villas at Dusit Thani

Maldives; we assume that no major renovations will be

required for the new asset.

We have also taken into account the market environment,

tourism demand and supply, as well as competition in each

asset location. In our forecast, we assume DREIT assets’ OR as

per the following table:

DREIT: Occupancy (%) by asset

2019F-2024F 2025F-2049F 2050F onwards

Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket* 75% 75% 70%

Dusit Thani Hua Hin 60-65% 60-65% (until 2040)

Dusit D2 Chiang Mai* 70-80% 70%-80% 65%

Dusit Thani Maldives 80-85% 70-75% 65% (until 2059)

*Freehold asset Source: DBSVTH

Raising ADR growth after renovation. We see growing annual

tourist arrivals at all of DREIT’s assets. The growth in tourist

arrivals has surpassed growth of total accommodations,

implying that demand is higher than supply.

We have also taken into account DREIT’s asset quality after

annual maintenance, minor/major renovations; we believe

DREIT would still be able to raise its ADR in the short-to-

medium term. In our forecast, we assume ADR growths for

DREIT’s assets as per the following table:

DREIT: ADR growth (%) by asset

2019F-2024F 2025F-2049F 2050F onwards

Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket* 2-5% 2% 0%

Dusit Thani Hua Hin 0-8% 0-2% (until 2040)

Dusit D2 Chiang Mai* 2-8% 1-2% 0%

Dusit Thani Maldives 2-2.5% 2% 0% (until 2059)

*freehold asset

Source: DBSVTH

Page 18

Company Focus


New asset acquisitions. DTC is currently the sole asset

sponsor of DREIT. Currently, DTC operates 9 owned-hotels

and 260 management contracts/franchise in 13 countries. Its

properties are varied, ranging from high to low-end

properties, luxury and boutique villas/hotels, to budget hotels

and residences.

Apart from its current asset portfolio, DTC is targeting to

open 11 new hotels in Philippines, Singapore, China, Qatar,

Bahrain and Kenya. This would raise its coverage to more

than 20 countries around the world, with 20,000+ room

offerings. DREIT’s existing assets are among the top three

revenue generators for DTC and are flagship hotels among

DTC-owned hotels (including Dusit Thani Maldives).

Going forward, DREIT should have opportunities to expand its

REIT size via acquisitions or investments in one or more of

DTC’s properties. DREIT also has an open-door policy for

potential asset acquisitions from other sponsors, or 3rd parties

other than DTC and its associates.

Financial Position Pre-acquisition low gearing ratio. At end-FY18, DREIT’s total

outstanding debt stood at Bt599m, with total asset value of

Bt4,382m. Its gearing ratio was 14% (vs. REIT’s maximum

gearing ratio of 35%).

Post- acquisition capex reserve. We anticipate that DREIT will

fund its new asset by raising Bt1,650m capital and additional

debt of Bt735m. We assume additional debts for total capital

expenditure (capex) reserve for existing and upcoming major

renovations of Bt1,310m during FY19-23F. We are

anticipating DREIT’s gearing ratio of 21% at end-FY19F,

rising to 33% at end-FY23.

DREIT: Outstanding debt & gearing ratio


Key Risks

Economic volatility. Economic uncertainties may have an

impact on DREIT assets’ OR and ADR. Nowadays, politics

plays an important role in the economy. This could cause

more volatility in the economy (for example, US-China trade

war and the Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union

(Brexit)).

Nevertheless, DREIT’s assets in Phuket, Ching Mai, Hua Hin,

and Maldives are popular destinations among local and

foreign tourists.

This was proven by increasing tourist arrivals in all of DREIT’s

assets in 2018 (vs. 2017): Maldives +6.8%, Hua Hin +5.3%,

Chiang Mai +4.3%, and Phuket +2.6%. This included the

rising number of Chinese tourists, despite the US-China trade

war that started in early-2H18.

Thailand and Maldives are favoured countries among tourists,

compared to other neighbouring countries in the region.

These countries also have no major political issues with any

other countries. We believe that the tourism sector in

Thailand and Maldives will remain resilient despite various

economic and political uncertainties.

Increasing supply. We are also seeing growth in total

accommodations at some of DREIT’s assets (Chiang Mai,

Maldives and Hua Hin). The increase in total supply in these

particular areas may affect the OR and ADR of DREIT’s assets

and earnings.

However, we believe in DREIT’s asset quality, given the major

renovations recently, as well as annual maintenance and

minor renovations.

On top of that, Dusit is a well-established brand of over 70

years, with high brand awareness and customer loyalty. The

percentage of returning guests is 18% in Phuket, 18% in

Chiang Mai, 14% in Hun Hin and 8% in Maldives.

We believe that the with the Dusit brands offering global

standards and Thai-oriented services, DREIT should be able to

maintain its business operations and sustain its OR and ADR

in the long run.

Interest rate uptrend. Any spike in interest rates could be

negative for property funds/REIT sector. Risk-averse investors

may switch to bonds in response to narrower spreads as REITs

typically come with higher risks.

An increase in interest rates would raise the REIT’s finance

cost and lower its earnings and distribution. However, we

expect any rise of interest rates to have low impact on DREIT

given its low gearing of 14% at end-FY18 and c.19% at end-

FY19F.

599 1,

444

1,74

4

2,04

4

2,34

4

2,64

4 14%

21%24%

27%30%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

(Bt m)

Oustanding debt Gearing ratio (D/TAV)

Page 19

Company Focus


CRITICAL DATA POINTS TO WATCH

Critical Factors

New asset acquisition. DREIT is in the process of acquiring a new

asset, Dusit Thani Maldives. The acquisition of the new asset (1st

investment) is likely to be completed in 3Q19. Revenue contribution

from the new asset will filter through from 4Q19 onwards. The new asset’s value will be no more than Bt2,385.6m, at 5% premium of the lowest appraised value. In our forecast, we assume the new asset’s value of c. Bt2,385 to be funded by raised capital of c. Bt1,650m (assuming 300m newly issued shares at an offering price of Bt5.50 per share) and additional loans of Bt735m.

Post-transaction, DREIT’s total asset value will increase by c.54%

from Bt4.2bn to Bt6.7bn. DREIT will have a total of 4 hotels in

Thailand and Maldives. We anticipate the new asset acquisition to be

DPU accretive, from Bt0.42 (excluding new asset) to Bt0.44 (including

new asset) in FY20F.

Occupancy rates. Our OR assumptions for each of DREIT’s asset are

based on its location, tourist growth and historical OR. We have also

factored in major renovations for each asset that we expect to help

boost DREIT’s ORs. Our OR assumptions for each asset are as follows:

(i) Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket: OR of 75% in FY19-49 and

70% from FY50 onwards.

(ii) Dusit Thani Hua Hin: OR of 60-65% in FY19-40 (end of

lease term).

(iii) Dusit D2 Chiang Mai: OR of 70-80% in FY19-49 and 65%

from FY50 onwards.

(iv) Dusit Thani Maldives: OR of 80-85% in FY19-24, 70-75%

in FY25-49, and 65% in FY50-59 (end of lease term).

Rental reversion. In our forecast, we assume ADR growth peaking

after major renovations of each asset, rising along with inflation rates

thereafter. We have also taken into consideration the location and

quality of each hotel. In our forecast, we have assumed the following

ADR growths for each asset:

(i) Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket: ADR growth of 2-5% in FY19-

24, 2% in FY25-49, and no growth from FY50 onwards.

(ii) Dusit Thani Hua Hin: ADR growth of 0-8% in FY19-24, and

0-2% in FY25-40 (end of lease term).

(iii) Dusit D2 Chiang Mai: ADR growth of 2-8% in FY19-24, 1-

2% in FY25-49, and no growth from FY50 onwards.

(iv) Dusit Thani Maldives: ADR growth of 2-2.5% in FY19-49

and no growth in FY50-59 (end of lease term).

Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket: OR (%) and ADR

Dusit Thani Hua Hin: OR (%) and ADR

Dusit D2 Chiang Mai: OR (%) and ADR

Dusit Thani Maldives: OR (%) and ADR


4,41

4

4,98

5

4,87

4

5,11

8

5,37

3

5,64

2

5,75

5

5,87

0

5,98

7

73%

63%

69%

75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

(Bt )

ADR OR (%)

3,57

0

3,15

5

3,01

5

3,01

5

3,25

6

3,51

7

3,58

7

3,65

9

3,73

2

65% 64%

68%65%

60%

65% 65% 65% 65%

40%

50%

60%

70%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

(Bt )

ADR OR (%)

2,90

8

2,83

2

2,61

7

2,69

6

2,77

7

2,86

0

2,94

6

3,18

1

3,24

5

82%79%

81% 80% 80%

70% 70%

80% 80%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

(Bt )

ADR OR (%)

18

,22

3

16,6

29

16,8

32

17,2

53

17,5

98

17

,95

0

18

,30

9

18

,67

5

19

,04

8

67%

76%

84% 85%80% 80% 80% 80% 80%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

(Bt )

ADR OR (%)

Page 20

Company Focus


Balance Sheet:

In 1Q19, DREIT’s investment properties accounted for 96% of its

total assets. Its gearing ratio of 17% represents long-term loans of

Bt782m over total assets of Bt4.6bn. We expect its gearing ratio to

increase to 21% after the new asset acquisition in 3Q19, assuming

additional debt of Bt735m.

DREIT announced a distribution per unit (DPU) of Bt0.17 in 1Q19,

bringing full-year FY18 DPU to Bt0.4354, representing 97% payout.

This implies a yield of 7.3% at its last traded price of Bt5.95 as of 31

May 2019.

Share Price Drivers:

OR/ADR growth, and new asset acquisitions would be the key drivers

for DREIT’s revenue and earnings growth.

Key Risks:

Economic volatility. A volatile economy may have an impact on

DREIT’s operations, in terms of OR and ADR of assets, and affect

DREIT’s earnings and DPU.

Increasing supply. An increase in number of accommodations may

affect DREIT’s potential to raise its OR and ADR.

Interest rate uptrend. Any spike in interest rates may have an impact

on finance cost and distribution yield of DREIT.

Company Background

DREIT launched its initial public offering (IPO) on 23 Nov 2017 and

was listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) on 15 Dec 2017

(first trading date), with total registered capital of Bt3.66bn. The REIT

focuses on investments in freehold and leasehold properties,

especially hotels and related businesses.

DREIT was converted from Dusit Thani Freehold and Leasehold

Property Fund (DTCPF) in Nov 2017. This was executed through

share-swapping, with 409.4m new shares issued and cash paid to

DTCPF unitholders.

DREIT has invested Bt4.2bn for its initial asset acquisitions (51%

leasehold and 49% freehold) consisting of three five-star hotels:

Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket, Dusit Thani Hua Hin and Dusit D2 Chiang

Mai. The REIT will acquire Dusit Thani Maldives for c. Bt2,385m in

early-2020.

The three major unit shareholders of DREIT are Dusit Thani PCL,

Social Security Office and Muang Thai Insurance PCL with stakes of

30%, 25.4% and 5.1% respectively.

Aggregate Leverage (%)

ROE (%)

NAV/ share

DPU and Distribution Payout (%)

*starting on 15 Dec 2017


9.0 9.1

7.6 7.7

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F

(Bt/share)

NAV per share

0.04

0.26

0.17

100%90%

107%

0%

40%

80%

120%

-

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

4Q17* 1H18 2H18

(Bt )

DPU Payout ratio (%)

Page 21

Company Focus


Valuation

DCF valuation of Bt7.25 per share. Our DCF valuation gives

a fair value of Bt7.25 to DREIT (potential upside of 22%),

with total returns of 29%. This is based on WACC of 7.5%,

assuming cost of debt of 4.25% and cost of equity of

8.4%, with no terminal growth.

New asset acquisition in 4Q19. We expect revenue

contribution from DREIT’s new Maldives asset to filter

through from 4Q19 onwards. In our forecast, we assume

300m new shares issued at Bt5.5 per share. This would

raise the number of shares outstanding from 409.4m (at

IPO) to 709.4m after its new asset acquisition.

We have carried out a sensitivity analysis of DREIT’s share

price using two underlying key factors: new asset

acquisition cost and offer price (in the following table):

DREIT: Target price sensitivity analysis


FY20F DPU accretion. We anticipate DREIT’s earnings to

grow from Bt179m with distribution per unit (DPU) of

Bt0.42 (excluding its new asset) to Bt314m with DPU of

Bt0.44 (including new asset), assuming 97% payout ratio in

FY20F. This results in a DPU accretion from pre-to-post

transaction of DREIT’s new asset acquisition.

CAPEX reserves. We have already factored in CAPEX

reserves for furniture fixture and equipment (FF&E)

purchase, minor renovations and other maintenance costs.

We assume CAPEX reserve of 5.5% p.a. of net investment

income from FY21-49 and 6% p.a. from FY50 onwards.

We assume additional CAPEX reserve of Bt1,310m for

existing and upcoming major renovations over a 5-year

period (FY19-23) for (i) Dusit Laguna Phuket (the expenses

of its major renovation were partially paid in FY18), (ii) Dusit

Thani Hua Hin, and (iii) Dusit D2 Chiang Mai.

The major renovation cycle of a hotel comes every 10 years.

We anticipate that DREIT will fund these renovations with

additional debt (from financial institution or bond issuance).

Therefore, in our forecast we assume additional debt of

Bt200m p.a. for the 10-year cycle of each of DREIT assets’

major renovations that are expected in FY27-29, FY37-39,

FY47-49 and FY57-59.

The table below illustrates our forecast assumptions of

DREIT’s CAPEX reserve for major renovations of its assets

Currently trading at 22% discount to NAV. With DREIT’s

current share price of Bt5.95 as of 31 May 2019 and NAV

of Bt7.64 per share in FY19F, implies a share price at a

discount of 22% to NAV.

Recommend BUY. DREIT offers a generous distribution yield

of 7.3% in FY19F, 7.4% in FY20F, with an IRR of 7.9%. We

think that DREIT’s distribution yield of 7.3% in FY19F is

attractive compared to an average property funds/REITs

sector yield of 5.7% in FY19F and a Thai 10-year govt.

bond yield of 2.5% (offering premium of 4.8%).

DREIT’s yield vs peers in FY19F

Source: DBSVTH

7.25 5.30 5.40 5.50 5.60 5.70 5.80

2,200 7.45 7.50 7.55 7.60 7.65 7.75

2,250 7.30 7.35 7.40 7.45 7.50 7.55

2,300 7.10 7.15 7.25 7.30 7.35 7.40

2,350 7.25 7.30 7.35 7.40 7.45 7.50

2,385 7.10 7.15 7.25 7.30 7.35 7.40

Offering price (Bt per share)

New

ass

et

acq

uis

itio

n c

ost

(Bt

m)

7.3% 7.2%6.7%

6.3%5.7%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

DREIT QHHR LHPF LHHOTEL POPF/ REITsector

Page 22

Company Focus


Key Assumptions

FY Dec 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F

Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket

Occupancy rate (OR) 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75%

Average Daily Rate 5,118 5,373 5,642 5,755 5,870 5,987

Dusit Thani Hua Hin



Dusit D2 Chiang Mai



Dusit Thani Maldives



Revenue (EBITDA) Breakdown

FY Dec 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F Revenues (Btm)

Dusit Thani Laguna Phuket 121 126 132 135 137 140

Dusit Thani Hua Hin 82 82 96 98 100 102

Dusit D2 Chiang Mai 33 34 31 32 39 40

Dusit Thani Maldives 89 305 311 317 323 331

Total 325 548 569 581 599 613


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Company Focus


Income Statement (Btm)

FY Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F

Gross revenue 19.0 226 319 532

Property expenses (1.1) (16.4) (18.0) (32.2)

Net Property Income 17.9 210 301 500

Other Opg expenses (0.2) (3.7) (5.3) (8.0)

Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0.22 0.04 (8.7) (47.8)

Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (1.4) (20.7) (68.2) (130)

Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0.0 (5.4) 0.0 0.0

Net Income 16.5 180 218 314

Tax 0.0 0.0 (4.9) (13.2)

Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Preference Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Income After Tax 16.5 180 213 301

Total Return 16.5 180 213 301

Non-tax deductible Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Inc available for Dist. 16.5 186 218 314

Growth & Ratio

Revenue Gth (%) N/A 1,090.5 40.7 67.0

N Property Inc Gth (%) nm 1,075.0 43.1 66.3

Net Inc Gth (%) nm 991.1 18.5 41.1

Dist. Payout Ratio (%) 99.9 96.8 96.8 97.0

Net Prop Inc Margins (%) 94.0 92.8 94.3 93.9

Net Income Margins (%) 86.9 79.6 67.0 56.6

Dist to revenue (%) 86.9 82.0 68.6 59.1

Managers & Trustee’s fees to sales %)

(2.4) (2.6) (3.4) (2.6)

ROAE (%) N/A 4.9 4.7 5.5

ROA (%) N/A 4.1 3.8 4.2

ROCE (%) N/A 4.8 5.2 6.7

Int. Cover (x) 12.7 10.0 4.3 3.8


Net Property Income and Margins

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Company Focus


Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (Btm)

FY Dec 4Q2017 1Q2018 2Q2018 3Q2018 4Q2018 1Q2019

Gross revenue 19.0 113 28.5 35.8 49.5 104

Property expenses (1.1) (4.2) (4.4) (3.8) (4.0) (4.3)

Net Property Income 17.9 108 24.2 32.1 45.5 99.6

Other Opng expenses (0.2) (0.4) (2.0) (1.5) 0.11 (0.9)

Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0.22 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.02 2.33

Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (1.4) (5.1) (5.0) (5.1) (5.5) (6.5)

Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0.0 (6.2) 0.0 (0,5) (4.9) 6.7

Net Income 16.5 96.6 17.2 24.9 35.3 101

Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Income after Tax 16.5 96.6 17.2 24.9 35.3 101

Total Return 16.5 103 17.2 25.5 40.2 94.4

Non-tax deductible Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Inc available for Dist. 16.5 103 17.2 25.5 40.2 94.4

Growth & Ratio

Revenue Gth (%) N/A 492 (75) 26 38 110

N Property Inc Gth (%) nm 506 (78) 33 42 119

Net Inc Gth (%) nm 523 (83) 48 58 135

Net Prop Inc Margin (%) 94.0 96.2 84.7 89.5 91.9 95.9

Dist. Payout Ratio (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Net Property Income and Margins


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Company Focus


Balance Sheet (Btm)

FY Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F Investment Properties 4,173 4,340 6,835 6,835

Other LT Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cash & ST Invts 165 35.5 153 434

Inventory 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Debtors 1.14 1.48 1.75 2.82

Other Current Assets 5.62 5.11 6.24 8.98

Total Assets 4,344 4,382 6,996 7,281

ST Debt

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Creditor 81.3 51.6 126 76.4

Other Current Liab 1.53 3.22 5.44 8.73

LT Debt 589 599 1,444 1,744

Other LT Liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Unit holders’ funds 3,673 3,728 5,421 5,451

Minority Interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Funds & Liabilities 4,344 4,382 6,996 7,281

Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (76.1) (48.2) (123) (73.3)

Net Cash/(Debt) (424) (564) (1,291) (1,310)

Ratio

Current Ratio (x) 2.1 0.8 1.2 5.2

Quick Ratio (x) 2.0 0.7 1.2 5.1

Aggregate Leverage (%) 14.1 13.8 21.1 25.5


Aggregate Leverage

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Company Focus


Cash Flow Statement (Btm)

FY Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F

Pre-Tax Income 16.5 180 218 314

Dep. & Amort. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Tax Paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Associates &JV Inc/(Loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Chg in Wkg.Cap. (20.8) (27.8) 74.6 (50.9)

Other Operating CF (408) 3.76 0.57 0.82

Net Operating CF (412) 156 294 264

Net Invt in Properties (11.8) (173) (2,495) (21.5)

Other Invts (net) 0.0 1.99 0.0 0.0

Invts in Assoc. & JV 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Div from Assoc. & JVs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Investing CF 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Investing CF (11.8) (171) (2,495) (21.5)

Distribution Paid 0.0 (125) (176) (262)

Chg in Gross Debt 589 10.2 845 300

New units issued 0.0 0.0 1,650 0.0

Other Financing CF 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Financing CF 589 (114) 2,319 37.7

Currency Adjustments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Chg in Cash 165 (129) 118 281


Distribution Paid / Net Operating CF

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Company Focus


DBSVTH recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:

STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)

HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)

FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)

SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)

Share price appreciation + dividends

Completed Date: 4 Jun 2019 10:34:16 (THA) Dissemination Date: 4 Jun 2019 17:57:21 (THA)

Sources for all charts and tables are DBSVTH unless otherwise specified.

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Page 28

Company Focus


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Company Focus


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Page 30

Company Focus


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Page 31

Company Focus


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