Ten Years for Agroecology in Europe Transition pathways ......Présentation 17 § The First Step of ... IPES-food) Scientific works related to agricultural transition. Présentation

Institut du développement durable et des relations internationales27 rue Saint-Guillaume – 75337 Paris Cedex 07 - France

www.iddri.org

Ten Years for Agroecology in EuropeTransition pathways towards a sustainable European food system

CORE Organic – January 2019Contact :Pierre-Marie Aubert, Senior researcher and Lead, Food and Agriculture Policies Initiative, [email protected] / +33 677 076 702Xavier Poux, Associate researcher, IDDRI, Project director, [email protected] / +33 142 008 673

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Présentation 2

§ The objectives and rationales of TYFA§ Presentation of the macro-agronomic modelling developed so far § Outlook on the future work program (2019-2021)

The outline of our presentation

Présentation 3

TYFA in a nutshell

§ TYFA : Ten Years For Agroecology

§ A plausible and desirable image in 2050: European agriculture is pesticide-free, biodiversity rich and procure healthy food

§ A pathway during which the first 10 years are crucial

§ A European project, i.e. for the European Union

§ Europe (the EU) needs to be apprehended as a consistent unit, notwithstanding its diversity• For agro-eco-geographical reasons (macro-agronomy approach)• For cultural reasons: food, landscapes• For economic and organisational reasons of its food system• For socio-political reasons

Présentation 4

The European dimensions of TYFA

§ The issue of Agroecology is different in Europe when compared to the rest of the World: AE is likely to entail lower yields• Meta-analysis of Ponisio (2015) about yields of organic farming• Defending higher yields would be a inaudible position

§ Issues dealing with the internal organisation of the EU• See above

§ Issues dealing with the EU and the rest of the World• The EU imports the equivalent of 35% of its UAA: the World is feeding the

EU ; the issue of the industrial livestock sector

Présentation 5

§ Production: does European agroecology produce enough to feed

Europe without harnessing the rest of the World?

• A sufficiency paradigm

• Introducing a qualitative dimension

§ Socio-environmental: what are the overall impacts of AE?

• Trade-off between the climate/carbon agenda and the biodiversity agenda

§ Socio-territorial debate: what are the impacts of AE on jobs?

• Capital/labour intensity, about meaning of farming and eating

§ Socio-technical debate: what agricultural and food-system

model? With what social consequences?

• Issue about the nature and role of technologies in the development of

agricultural and food systems (low-tech vs. high-tech)

The debates that TYFA wants to contribute to

Présentation 6

Agroecology and sustainable intensification

Yields

Inputs

Today

SI1

SI2

SI3

AE 1

AE 2

? Pesticides? Biodiversity

Présentation 7

§ A comprehensive analysis of production/consumption developments of European food system (use of FAO stats)

§ In short: the EU diet has followed the EU production rationale:• More meat and animal products (x 2 from 1960’s)• More sugars, shortage in vegetables and fibers• More cereal produced and used for industrial animal production• More proteins (soya) imported from the Americas for industrial animal

production• The EU is a net importer of 1/3 of the equivalent of its UAA out of which 1/5

is for soya only

§ Our excessive consumption broadly corresponds to the excessive production of the present industrial animal sector

§ In a sufficiency paradigm, it is logical and desirable to get rid of this production (in terms of quantity and nature)

Assessing the current situation for identifying levers

Présentation 8

§ A need for quantification: at the end, does agroecology produce enough to feed Europe?• So far, no model addressing this specific question at this specific level with

this specific framing

§ A holistic model, an iterative approach for completing different cycles

A bio-physical model to contribute to the debate

Input Output• Diet• Crop production modes• Livestock production modes

• Waste• Non-food use• Nitrogen inputs to crops

• Production by type of products

• Land-use• GHG emission• Biodiversity attribute• Nitrogen export by crops

Présentation 9

3. The TYFA scenario: the tested hypothesisUne gestion de la fertilité au niveau territorial qui passe par :

• Reterritorialisation de l’élevage dans les zones de culture

et limitation de la compétition feed / food, entraînant 1 Fertility management at a territorial level

Présentation 10

3. The TYFA scenario (3): the tested hypothesisUne gestion de la fertilité au niveau territorial qui passe par :


et limitation de la compétition feed / food, entraînant

Redéploiement des prairies naturelles sur l’ensemble du territoire3

1 Fertility management at a territorial level

2 Pesticide-free farming and extensification of crop productionOrganic farming is the reference model

Présentation 11







3 Redeployment of permanent grasslandand ecological focus areas

Présentation 12




et limitation de la compétition feed / food, entraînant Redéploiement des prairies naturelles sur l’ensemble du territoire3




4 Livestock extensification (phase-out of industrial modes)

Présentation 13





• Réduction de la consommation de produits animaux




3 Redeployment of permanent grasslandand ecological focus areas4 Livestock extensification (phase-out of industrial modes)

5 Healthy and sustainable diets

Présentation 14





• Réduction de la consommation de produits animaux


),




4 Livestock extensification (phase-out of industrial modes)

5 Healthy and sustainable diets

6 Food first, then feed, then biodiversity, then non-food use

Présentation 15

Le scénario TYFA repose sur l’abandon des pesticides et des fertilisants de synthèse, le redéploiement des prairies naturelles et l’extension des infrastruc-tures agroécologiques (haies, arbres, mares, habitats pierreux), et sur l’adoption de régimes alimentaires plus sains (moins de produits animaux : – 50 % ; davan-tage de fruits et légumes : + 50 %). Malgré une baisse de la production de 35 % par rapport à 2010 (en kcal), ce scénario satisfait aux besoins alimentaires des Européens tout en conservant une capacité d’exportation sur les céréales, les produits laitiers et le vin et conduit à une réduction des émissions de GES du secteur agricole de 40 % par rapport à 2010. Il permet de reconquérir la biodiver-sité et de conserver les ressources naturelles.

2010 2050

Engrais azotés Alimentation animale

Export

Import Import

Export ExportExport

Auxiliaires de cultures

Usage des sols

Agriculture agroécologiqueAgriculture intensive

Alimentationdes européens

Alimentationdes européens

Pesticides

-40 %

Maintiendes exports

-30 %

-90 %

-40 %

SCÉNARIO POUR UNE EUROPE AGROÉCOLOGIQUE EN 2050

2010 2050

Volume Ì

Qualité Ê

PrairiesFourrages1

CéréalesProtéagineux2

OléagineuxFruits et légumes

VignesAutre

1 : non protéines ; 2 : grains et fourrage

GES GES

(en % calories) (en % calories)

AutresProduits laitiersViandes, œufs et poissonProtéagineux (pois, lentilles…)Fruits et légumesCéréales et féculents

Productions

zzzzzz

Prairies

z z

1

23

zzzzzzzzzzz

z Boissons alcoolisées(eq. alcool pur)

Boissons non-alcooliséesOeufsProduits laitiers (eq. lait)PiscicultureViandeLégumineuses grainesSucrePommes de terreFruits et légumesCultures oléagineusesCéréales

kcal/jour/pers.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

20502010

Source : TYFAm.

zzzzzz Lait (matière sèche)

ŒufsVolailleViande de porcOvins / caprinsViande de b œuf

20502010

Md kcal

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

zzzzzzz

zz

zzz

z

Source : TYFAm.

Maïs fourrager et autres plantes fourragèreslégumineuses fourragèresPrairies temporairesPrairies permanentes et pâturageslégumineuses grainesBetterave à sucre et plantes sarcléesPommes de terreVignes (destinées au vin)FruitsLégumes fraisOlivesCultures oléo-protéagineusesCéréales

Trillions kcal

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

20502010

z

zzzz

z

zz

Source : TYFAm.

Fabrication du matériel Aliments pour animaux (déforestation importée)Fabrication de l'azote et autres intrants Mise à disposition de l'énergie Stockage des effluents Fermentation entérique Sols agricoles(y.c. N20 lessivage et NH3) Consommation d'énergie

MtCO2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

20502010

3. The TYFA scenario (4): main resultsMain results

Présentation 16

Main objectives of the next steps

1. Reinforcing our understanding of what could an agroecological transition pathway in Europe look like

2. Comparing contrasted pathways based either on AE or on SI through a multidimensional assessment framework, in order to feed in academic, societal and political debates regarding the future of our food system.

Présentation 17

§ The First Step of TYFA : mainly relied on biophysicalmodelling / ability to feed Europeans by 2050 whileensuring the closing of the nitrogen cycle.

§ Deepening the TYFA scenario :• reinforcing the agronomic analyses led so far and • developing a socio-economic and political

evaluation describing under which condition the AE scenario would be feasible / while comparing it to a SI scenario.

The next steps

Présentation 18

§ (1) Biophysical and quantitative models(e.g.: work led on nitrogen balance, European or global physical scenarios, etc.)

§ (2) Integrative assessment models combining quantitative economic analyses and biophysical modelling

(e.g.: IMAGE or CAPRI -> often based on existing farm structures)

§ (3) Mainly qualitative work on social aspects(e.g.: work led by GIRAF, IPES-food)

Scientific works related to agricultural transition

Présentation 19

WP0 – Scenario development(AE and SI)

WP1Agronomy

& environment

WP2Political economy

andsociology of transition

WP3Socio-economic

implications

Organisation of work packages: a transdisciplinary and integrative approach

WP4 – Debating in the public space

Présentation 20

TYFA has been financially supported by

Thank you for your attention!

https://www.iddri.org/en/project/ten-years-agroecology-europe

Documents

Ten Years for Agroecology in Europe Transition pathways ......Présentation 17 § The First Step of ... IPES-food) Scientific works related to agricultural transition. Présentation