Techno Economic Assessment

7/28/2019 Techno Economic Assessment

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Life Impact | The University of Adelaide

Delivering innovative technologiesfor a clean energy future

Centre for Energy Technology

Techno-economic assessment of novel

engineering systems for stranded geothermalenergy resources.Ashok A. KaniyalProf. Graham Gus J. Nathan

Prof. Jonathan J. Pincus

School of Mechanical Engineering

Ricoh Clean Energy Scholarship


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Life Impact | The University of AdelaideSlide 1


Australias Energy Network

Electricity transmission

network

Geothermal

resources in

Cooper Basin

Oil and Natural Gas Pipeline

network (Geoscience Australia, 2009)

Geothermal

resources in

Cooper Basin


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The Geothermal-Data Centre Concept

Geothermal data fibre link Capital: $60 m + $15 m (Op ex).

DBCDE, 2010.

Geothermal-data fibre link

Proposed NBN Co Fibre

optic linksFibre optic node

Geothermal-data

fibre link~ $60m

National Broadband

Network (NBN)(NBN Co., 2010)


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Presentation outline

Gap in literature;

Techno-economic analysis framework;

Analysis of Geothermal-data centre concept early results;

Future work;

Conclusions.


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Gap in literature

Economic assessment of geothermal direct heat and EGS CHPapplications.

Address limitations of other novel geothermal engineering systems, Dickinson et al. (2010) and Atrens et al. (2009).

Geothermal-data centre micro-grid follows complementary networkinfrastructure investment. c.f. Siddiqui and Maribu (2009), Fleten (2007).

Application of dynamic capital investment decision methods, Not considered in this context.


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Aims

Technical feasibility of direct heat and CHP enhanced geothermal system

applications,

Economic viability of fibre optic network and geothermal plant under data

centre client servicing scenarios: Net present value - Deterministic static analysis,

NPV approach + dynamic demand and geothermal plant cost

uncertainty.

Social welfare analysis a case for public involvement in project.

Application of techno-economic framework to other eng systems.


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Framework for techno-economic analysis

1. Develop a concept for an engineering system.

2. Steady state thermodynamic analysis of plant concept.

3. Static NPVanalysis of investment.

4. Dynamic analysis of investment in geothermal andnetwork resource faculties.

5. Social benefit analysis of investment in plant and networkresource.

Increasingd

etail


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Standardised data centre unit

Modular data centre of total capacity 350 kWe (Barroso, 2007):

IT load = 270 kWe

Cooling load = 200 kWr

Cooling load

~200 kWrData Centre Co. NBN

market

Geothermal-data

fibre link

(1000-1500 km)

hv

IT electrical load

~270 kWe


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EGS CHP Organic Rankine cycle

steady state analysis

2s3

2

Temperature[K]

Entropy (s)

[kJ/kg-K]

6 1

5s5

4

Geothermal water:

Tin = 508 K, TH = 490 K, T = 5 K,

= 50 kg/s.

Wnet = 1.2 MWe

Injection

well

Production

well

Feed pump

EvaporatorPre-heater

Geo-fluid:

water

Radialturbine

Generator

Ext. heat exchanger

Absorption cycle:

generatorRefrigeration

load

Geo-fluid

NH3-H20

5

3 2

1

6

4

68%

(Tc = 562 K, Tin = 375 K, TH = 320 K)

Absorption refrigeration

cycle (not shown)

DiPippo (2005)

Heberle and Bruggemann (2010)

Liu , Chien and Wang (2004)

490

320


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Energy consumption pattern

Geothermal

Local CHP 14x Modulardata centres NBNmarket

Geothermal-data fibre link

(1500 km)

hv

Absorption chiller

cooling

Direct heat

cooling

Organic Rankine Cycle

1.2 MWe

Total IT electrical Load

3.75 MWe

3.6 MWth (input) > 2.8MWr (average required output)

Absorption chiller plant: COP = 1.0

Natural gas electricity

generation 2.55 MWe

Broad X Absorption Chiller Design Manual (2008)


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EGS wells and ORC plant costing

Cost component A$ M

First injection + production well pair $30.5 M

ORC plant

+ natural gas storage tank + construction + contingency.

$3.82 M

Additional production wells $10.2 M

Ulrich (1984)

Vasudevan and Agrawal (2000)


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ORC plant economies of scale

4 PU $10.93 m

4 x 1 plant unit (PU)$15.87 m

2 PU x 2 = $11.69m

3 PU + 1 PU =$12.51m

$-

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

0 1 2 3 4 5

Cos

tofplantandinstallation(A$M)

Geothermal ORC plant units (corresp. no. of production wells)

Grass roots capital (Full Plant) ($AUD)

Plant size incrementation cost comparison(4 plant units)


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Local CHP Net Present Value scenarios

NPV scenario iteration Description

Mk 1 - Increasing rate of data centre commitment,

- Early investment = no construction lag.

Mk 2

- Increasing rate of data centre commitment,- Economies of scale investment in plant.

Rt= Annual revenue received per data centre,

Ct=

Capital and ongoing operating expenditure.i= Cost of capital = 6%


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Local CHP Net Present Value scenarios

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-$160

-$140

-$120

-$100

-$80

-$60

-$40

-$20

$-0 1 2 3 4 5

N

PV/Totalexpen

diture

NPVan

dTotalexpendi

ture(A$M)

Number of capacity increments (production wells + ORC plant)

Total expenditure Mk 2 Total expenditure Mk 3

NPV/Total expenditure Mk 2 NPV/Total expenditure Mk 3

1

1 2

2


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Fibre optic network investment

-$80

-$60

-$40

-$20

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Cumulativ

enetpresentvalue(A$M)

Years

Cumulative NPV of investment in Geothermal-Data Fibre link

28% subscription

40% subscription

50% subscription

60% subscription

Barroso (2007)


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Dynamic investment decision

Real options approach.

An optimal path for capacity investments given uncertain:

Data centre demand for remote co-location and competition b/w sites,

Method: Aguerrevere (2003);

Influence of learning on cost of establishing geothermal wells and plant,

Method: Bolton and Faure-Grimaud (2009).

Social welfare analysis under uncertain demand

public subsidy? Method: Danau (2010).


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Future work

Another application: Wind CHP a techno-economicanalysis?

H2-fuel cells CHP for NEM feed-in and adsorptiondesalination.

Common use plant c.f. fibre optic networkinvestment.


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Conclusions

Enhanced geothermal system CHP applicationtechnically feasible.

Geothermal-data centre concept is economicallyviable.

Techno-economic framework applicable to otherunique engineering systems and geographies.

Documents

Techno Economic Assessment