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The World Bank Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in the Southern African region Bruno Merven, ERC in conjunction with VITO and the World Bank The World Bank Sandton, South Africa, 31st May 2011 World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in the Southern African region

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Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in the Southern African region. Bruno Merven , ERC in conjunction with VITO and the World Bank. The World Bank. Sandton , South Africa , 31st May 2011 World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in the Southern African region

Bruno Merven, ERCin conjunction with VITO and the World Bank

The World Bank

Sandton, South Africa, 31st May 2011World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 2: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in Southern African Region

• World Bank project conducted by consortium of VITO (Belgium), EIHP (Croatia) and ERC (South Africa)

• Overall objective:– Assess possible application and development of

CCS in power systems in Balkan and Southern Africa regions using a techno-economic model

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 2World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 3: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Project Activities

• Assessment of available underground storages and their economic characteristics

• Development of a regional techno-economic model (interconnected power system)

• Scenario based simulation and optimization• Workshop support and results presentation• Project report

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 3World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 4: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Study Area of Southern African Region

• 4 Countries: South Africa, Botswana, Mozambique and Namibia

• Population: 74.5 million• GDP (PPP): ~600 billion (2000US$)• Electricity demand – ~278 TWh growing by

~200 TWh by 2030• Total installed capacity (2009): ~47 GW

thermal: 90% (Mainly coal) remainder Hydro• Critical system reserve in several countries• South Africa accounts for ~91% of total

electricity demand• Regional transmission network is sparsely

connected with some new connection projects underway

• CO2 emission from power sector – ~246 Mton• UNFCC/Kyoto: ratified by all countries in study.

Only South Africa has a quantitative reduction target

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 4World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 5: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Generation expansion options

• Large coal resource available in all four countries• Natural gas: Namibia, Mozambique, South Africa

(LNG/pipeline imports)• CBM Potential in Botswana• Nuclear program under consideration in South Africa• Large scale hydro in Namibia and Mozambique• Solar (all four countries), wind (SA, Namibia),

biomass (SA, Mozambique)

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 5World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 6: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

General modeling Assumptions• Model used MESSAGE (IIASA/IAEA)• Planning horizon: 2010-2030• Demand Projection based on IRP (SA) and SAPP pool plan study• Real discount rate: 8%• All costs expressed in US$ (level 2010 – 7.4 Rands to the US$)• Gradual decrease of electricity import to 15% of domestic energy

needs by 2020• RE limited to 30% in each country• Technology and Fuel Costs based on SA IRP 2011 (dry cooling for

coal)• Technology learning applied to RE• CCS plant cost and efficiency calculated by scaling IRP costs and

efficiency by increment in generic costs and efficiencies researched by Vito.

• Coal plants with CCS cost about 50% more and are 7% less efficient• Retrofit costs given 40% premium above plant built with CCS first

time.Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 6World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 7: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

CCS transport and storage options

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 7World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Oil/Gas FieldsCoal Fields

Saline Aquifers

• Transport Costs based on IPCC of $1/tonCO2/100km• Storage Costs around $10-$15 /tonCO2

Page 8: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Levelized Cost Curves for Electricity

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 8World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Leve

lized

Cos

t in

$/M

Wh

Capacity Factor

CCGTCCS

CCGTCoal CCS ECBM

Coal CCS EOR

Coal

Nuclear

Imported Hydro

CSP

SPV

Wind

Biomass

Page 9: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Levelized Cost Curves for Electricity

• EOR benefit estimated by Vito at $40/tonCO2 and ECBM at $4.8/tonCO2• Cross over for Coal-Nuclear: $25/ton• Cross over for Coal CCS Botswana and Coal: $40/ton• Nuclear always costs more than CCS with EOR and less than CCS with ECBM

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0 50 100

LCO

E ($/

MW

h)

CO2 Price ($/ton)

Coal no CCS

SA Oil/Saline Aq no EOR

Botswana no ECBM

Botswana ECBM

Nuclear

SA Oil EOR

Mozambique-Oil EOR

LCOE CCS options vs Coal and Nuclear

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 9World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Coal Coal CCS Moz Coal CCS Moz EOR

Coal CCS Bot Coal CCS Bot ECBM

LCO

E ($/

MW

h)

Capital O&M Fuel Transport Storage Total

Breakdown of Coal CCS options

Page 10: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Cost Curve for CCS (SA)

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 10World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

50 500 5000 50000

LCO

E ($/

MW

h)

Cumulative Capacity Logarithmic scale (TWh or Mton-CO2)

MozOil

/Gas2030

100 Mt

SAOil

/Gas202077 Mt

BotswanaCoal Fields

20203,780 Mt

SASaline Aquifers

202542,000 Mt

• Oil/gas fields in Mozambique/SA most cost effective CCS option but storage capacity limited (450 MW, 350 MW running 85% for 30 years)

• Botswana coal fields capacity large but more expensive than nuclear (~17 GW)• Saline aquifer storage potential even larger but injectivity, capacity and costs

uncertain

Nuclear

Page 11: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Development scenarios• Reference scenario: least cost optimization• Baseline scenario: South Africa IRP “revised

balanced” – with CO2 Limit on South Africa– Without EOR/ECBM benefits– With EOR/ECBM benefits

• CO2 tax scenarios (with EOR/ECBM benefits and CO2 limit for South Africa)– $25/ton CO2 – $50/ton CO2 – $100/ton CO2

(All scenarios have IRP committed build plan)Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 11World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 12: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Reference (least cost) scenario• Generation dominated by

coal, with some hydro• Diesel and Natural gas used

for peaking• CO2 emission

– Cumulative: 6,418 Mton– 2030: 380 Mton

• Average generation cost hovers around 47$/MWh before increasing from 2022 onwards, reaching around 53 $/MWh in 2030.

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 12World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

0

50

100

150

200

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350

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500

2010

2011

2012

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2021

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2023

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2025

2026

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2030

Elec

trici

ty S

uppl

y (T

Wh)

Coal Existing Coal New CCGT Nuclear Hydro Wind

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

-50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Aver

age

Gene

ratio

n Co

sts

($/M

Wh)

CO2

Emiss

ions

(M

t)

CO2 Emissions Avg Gen Costs

Power Generation

Emissions and Costs

Page 13: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Baseline Scenario (IRP SA)• Less coal and more RE and

Nuclear to meet SA emissions target

• Avg. costs rise to $67/MWh• Some Gas CCS plants near the

depleted oil/gas fields, with cumulative stored reaching 25Mton CO2

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 13World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

0

50

100

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500

2010

2011

2012

2013

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2015

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2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Elec

trici

ty S

uppl

y (T

Wh)

Coal Existing Coal New Coal CCS CCGT CCGT CCS

Nuclear Hydro Biomass Solar Wind

-

5

10

15

20

25

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Cum

ulati

ve S

tore

d CO

2 (M

ton)

South Africa depleted oil field

South Africa export to Mozambique Depleted Oil fields

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

-50

100 150 200 250 300 350

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

Aver

age

Gene

ratio

n Co

sts

($/M

Wh)

CO2

Emiss

ions

(M

t)

CO2 Emissions Avg Gen Costs

Power Generation

Emissions and Costs Stored CO2

Page 14: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

$25/ton CO2 Tax scenario•CCS coal option becomes

competitive for South Africa•Share of CCS based

generation reaches 10% in 2030

•Avg costs rise to $77/MWh•Depleted SA oil fields reach

maximum potential by 2028.•CO2 redirected to

Mozambique

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 14World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

050

100150200250300350400450500

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Elec

trici

ty S

uppl

y (T

Wh)

Coal Existing Coal New Coal CCS CCGT CCGT CCS

Nuclear Hydro Biomass Solar Wind

-

50

100

150

200

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Cum

ulati

ve S

tore

d CO

2 (M

ton)

South Africa depleted oil field

South Africa export to Mozambique Depleted Oil fields

404550556065707580

-50

100 150 200 250 300 350

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

Aver

age

Gene

ratio

n Co

sts

($/M

Wh)

CO2

Emiss

ions

(M

t)

CO2 Emissions Avg Gen Costs

Page 15: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

$100/ton CO2 Tax scenario•CCS now is also competitive in

Botswana and Namibia•Share of CCS based

generation reaches 16% in 2030•Avg costs rise to $120/MWh•Depleted SA oil fields reach

maximum potential by 2026.•SA CO2 redirected to

Mozambique and Botswana

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 15World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

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400

450

500

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

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2017

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2019

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2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Elec

trici

ty S

uppl

y (T

Wh)

Coal Existing Coal New Coal CCS CCGT CCGT CCS

Nuclear Hydro Biomass Solar Wind

406080100120140

-

100

200

300

400

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

Aver

age

Gene

ratio

n Co

sts

($/M

Wh)

CO2

Emiss

ions

(M

t)

CO2 Emissions Avg Gen Costs

-

200

400

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Cum

ulati

ve S

tore

d CO

2 (M

ton)

South Africa depleted oil fieldSouth Africa Saline Aquifer (East)South Africa export to Botswana coal fieldsSouth Africa export to Mozambique Depleted Oil fieldsBotswana coal fieldsNamibia Depleted Oil fields

Page 16: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Results Summary: Emissions and Costs

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 16World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.0020

10

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

CO2

Emiss

ions

(M

ton)

Reference

Baseline

Baseline EOR

$25/tonEOR

$50/tonEOR

$100/ton EOR

• SA CO2 target in Baseline (IRP) drops regional emissions by 28% in 2030 (11% cumul.) relative to reference (least cost).

• Further significant reductions only seen at $100/ton CO2 price.

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Aver

age

Gene

ratio

n Co

sts

($/M

Wh)

Reference

Baseline

Baseline EOR

$25/tonEOR

$50/tonEOR

$100/ton EOR

Page 17: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Results summary: Structure of Generation and Stored CO2

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 17World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

• Coal share does not change much between Base-line, $25 CO2 tax and $50 CO2 tax but drops when tax increased to $100/ton

• In baseline contribution of CCS marginal mainly in terms of CCGT CCS• With a CO2 tax Coal CCS starts coming in

0

50

100

150

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250

300

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010

2030

Ref

eren

ce

2030

Bas

elin

e

2030

Bas

elin

e EO

R

2030

$25

/ton

EOR

2030

$50

/ton

EOR

2030

$10

0/to

n EO

R

Cum

ulati

ve S

tore

d CO

2 (M

ton)

Shar

e of

Tot

al E

lect

ricity

Gen

erati

on

Gas CCS

Coal CCS

Other RE

Hydro/PS

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Stored CO2 (Mton)

Page 18: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

ConclusionsProject activities realised• An analysis focusing on the use of CCS (Carbon Capture and

Storage) technologies and their competitiveness with other options was carried out

• Underground storage volume and associated transport and storage costs were researched and estimated

• CCS options in electricity generation and their costs were estimated

• Techno-economic model for optimisation was developed• Several development scenarios were simulated

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 18World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 19: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

ConclusionsRole of CCS in the region

• Oil/gas fields in SA/Mozambique most cost effective CCS options but storage capacity limited

• Botswana coal fields capacity large but more expensive than nuclear• Saline aquifer storage potential even larger but needs more research• In the baseline (SA IRP) scenario with the CO2 constraint, CCS

contributes marginally to help SA meet its target.• At $25 and $50 CO2 taxes, Coal CCS with the depleted oil/gas fields

in South Africa and Mozambique for storage become cost effective and play a slightly bigger role.

• CCS using coal fields for storage only come into play at $100/ton tax.

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 19World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 20: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Possible next steps• Further research of availability and costs of

underground storages needed in all the countries in the region to reduce uncertainty

• Modeling of Transport and Storage options could be improved

• Look further than 2030.• Other constraints on CCS (e.g. water)• Expanding the analysis to the rest of the

region• Other sectors e.g. CTL, industrialTechno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 20World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 21: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Thank you for your attention!

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 21World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 22: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

0

100

200

300

400

500

600TW

h Namibia

Mozambique

Botswana

South Africa

Electricity demand projection

~ 200 TWh

SA demand based on IRP 2011, others based on SAPP pool plan study of 2008

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 22World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 23: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Techno-economic model• MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and

their General Environmental Impact)– Developed by IIASA (International Institute for Applied System

Analysis) and IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency)– Available free of charge for IAEA member countries– Training available through IAEA TC projects

• Physical flow model– Demand driven– Used for medium to long-term energy system planning, energy

policy analysis, and scenario development– Linear and mixed integer programming– Built-in multi-regional modeling option

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 23World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 24: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Installed power (2009)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Botswana Mozambique Namibia South Africa

Shar

e of

Inst

alle

d Ca

pacit

y

Pump Stor

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 24World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Botswana: Coal Mozambique: Mainly coal with some oilNamibia: Hydro and Coal South Africa: Mainly coal with some

nuclear, and peaking (Pump Storage + OCGTs)

Page 25: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Generation (2009)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Botswana Mozambique Namibia South Africa

Gene

ratio

n (T

Wh) Net Imports

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 25World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Around 87% of power generated from coal thermal, mainly in South Africa

Page 26: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Fuel prices

Fuel USD/GJ Price

Diesel – imported 27.0 Natural gas – domestic 8.8 Natural gas – imported 10.8

Coal – domestic 2.0 Nuclear fuel 0.8

Fuel Prices based on SA IRP 2011

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 26World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 27: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Generic Technology Options and Costs

Technology Costs based on SA IRP 2011 (dry cooling for coal)Technology learning applied to RE

Plant description Fuel typeCapital

cost USD/kW

Fixed O&M

USD/kW

VariableO&M

USD/MWhEfficiency

Available/capacity

factorCapacity

credit

OCGT liquid fuels Diesel 547 9.5 0.0 30% 89% 1

Combined cycle gas Gas/LNG 842 20.0 0.0 48% 90% 1

Supercritical coal Coal 1 314 25.4 6.0 37% 85% 1

PWR nuclear Nuclear fuel 6 412 0 12.9 33% 85% 1

Biomass Renewable 4 496 131.4 4.2 25% 85% 1

Bulk Wind Renewable 2 000 35.9 0.0 NA 29% 0.23

Solar thermal central receiver Renewable 5 207 81.5 0.0 NA 41% 1

Solar PV (bulk) Renewable 3 896 67.8 0.0 NA 20% 0

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 27World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 28: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

CCS Capture Options

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 28World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Plant description Fuel TypeCapital

cost USD/kW

Fixed O&M

USD/kW

VariableO&M

USD/MWhEfficiency

Availablecapacity

factor

CCGT with CCS Gas 1 314 25.4 0.0 39% 89%

Coal Supercritical with CCS Coal 4 046 71.8 6.6 30% 85%

Page 29: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

Storage Options Identified and modelled

• Storage data from SA CCS Atlas, and limited available geological survey data• EOR benefit estimated by Vito at $40/tonCO2 and ECBM at $4.8/tonCO2• Some options not modelled because of high uncertainty and costs.• Start year for Namibia and Mozambique oil fields brought forward within model horizon.

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 29World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Country # in Mat-

rix

Site Name Location Capacity (Gton) Uncertainty

Risk premium

Storage Cost (USD/ton)

No EOR/ECBM

Storage Cost (USD/ton)

with EOR/ECBM

Start Year

Modelled?

South Africa 1 Karoo Basin Inland 12 very high NA - - NA NoSAF 2 Zululand Mesozoic Basin On-Shore East Coast 0.46 high 100% 15.00 15.00 2025 Yes 3 Mezosoic Algoa and

Gamtoos BasinOn-Shore South Coast 0.4 high 50% 11.25 11.25 2025 Yes

4 Onshore coal fields On-Shore inland 1.2 very high NA - - NA No 5 Mesozoic Outeniqua Basin Off-shore South coast 48 high 50% 11.25 11.25 2025 Yes 6 Mesozoic Orange Basin Off-shore West coast 56 high 50% - - 2025 No 7 Mesezoic Durban Basin Off-shore East coast 42 high 50% 11.25 11.25 2025 Yes 8 Depleted oil/gas fields Off-shore South coast 0.077 medium 25% 9.38 -30.63 2020 YesBotswana 9 Coal fields South 3.78 high 50% 6.45 6.45 2020 YesBOT 10 Saline aquifers South unknown very high NA - - NA NoMozambique 11 Coal fields Inland North 6 very high 100% 10.20 10.20 2025 YesMOZ 12 Depleted gas fields South 0.1 very high 50% 11.25 -28.75 2029 Yes 13 Saline aquifer (Ibo) Off-shore North unknown very high NA - - NA NoNamibia 14 Saline aquifer Inland East unknown very high NA - - NA NoNAM 15 Depleted oil/gas fields Off-shore South 0.129 high 75% 13.13 -26.88 2029 Yes

Page 30: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

SA IRP committed build plan

Committed build

RTS

Cap

acitr

y

Med

upi (

Coa

l)

Kus

ile (C

oal)

Ingu

la (P

S)

DO

E O

CG

T IP

P

Cog

ener

atio

n

Win

d

CSP

Land

fill,

hydr

o

Sere

(Win

d)

Dec

omm

.

MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW 2010 380 0 0 0 0 260 0 0 0 0 0 2011 679 0 0 0 0 130 0 0 0 0 0 2012 303 0 0 0 0 0 300 0 100 100 0 2013 101 722 0 333 1020 0 400 0 25 0 0 2014 0 722 0 999 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 2015 0 1444 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 -180 2016 0 722 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -90 2017 0 722 1446 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2018 0 0 723 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2019 0 0 1446 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2020 0 0 723 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -75 2022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1870 2023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2280 2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -909 2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1520 2026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2028 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2850 2029 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1128 2030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 1463 4332 4338 1332 1020 390 700 200 125 100 -10902

Committed build plan is “forced in” all scenarios.

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 30World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Page 31: Techno-economic assessment of potential CCS deployment in  the Southern African  region

The World Bank

SA “Revised Balanced” IRP

Techno-economic assessment of CCS deployment in Southern Africa | Sandton | May 2011 | 31World Bank CCS Capacity Building Trust Fund

Committed build New build options

RTS Capac

itryMedu

pi Kusile Ingula

DOE OCGT

IPP

Cogeneration, own build Wind CSP

Landfill,

hydro Sere

Decommissioni

ng

Coal (PF, FBC,

Imports)

Gas CCGT OCGT

Import

Hydro WindSolar

PVSolar CSP

Nuclear

Fleet  MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MW

2010 380 0 0 0 0 260 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02011 679 0 0 0 0 130 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 02012 303 0 0 0 0 0 300 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 300 0 02013 101 722 0 333 1020 0 400 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 300 0 02014 0 722 0 999 0 0 0 100 0 0 0 500 0 0 0 400 300 0 02015 0 1444 0 0 0 0 0 100 0 0 -180 500 0 0 0 400 300 0 02016 0 722 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -90 0 0 0 0 400 300 100 02017 0 722 1446 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 400 300 100 02018 0 0 723 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 400 300 100 02019 0 0 1446 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 250 0 0 0 400 300 100 02020 0 0 723 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 250 237 0 0 400 300 100 02021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -75 250 237 0 0 400 300 100 02022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1870 250 237 805 1143 400 300 100 02023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2280 250 0 805 1183 400 300 100 16002024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -909 250 0 0 283 800 300 100 16002025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1520 250 0 805 0 1600 1000 100 16002026 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 0 0 0 400 500 0 16002027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 250 0 0 0 1600 500 0 02028 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2850 1000 474 690 0 0 500 0 16002029 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1128 250 237 805 0 0 1000 0 16002030 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 948 0 0 0 1000 0 0

1463 4332 4338 1332 1020 390 700 200 125 100 -10902 6250 2370 3910 2609 8400 8400 1000 9600