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Meeting with Stakeholders
Technical study and CBA for
LNG as marine fuel in Malta
November, 20th 2019
The sole responsibility of this publication lies with the author. The European Union is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE
In view of the requirements of EU AFID Directive 2014/94/EU for thedevelopment of an LNG bunkering infrastructure for Malta’s TEN-T core portsfrom 2025, the study identifies the optimal infrastructure solutions insynergy with PCI Phase 1 and Phase 2.
Results will be used to assist the Government of Malta in the adoption of anational policy for the implementation of the required LNG bunkeringfacilities in Malta, thus stimulating the LNG uptake as a marine fuel andattract potential investors in this sector.
Activities covered in the study: Detailed Option Analysis & CBA Risk Assessment Study Legislative/Regulatory Analysis Training Needs Analysis Project Management, dissemination and public awareness - CEF
Grant Agreement obligation.
Study is 60% funded under CEF-Synergy; Partners – TM Contractor: Tractebel Consortium : PWC, Strategy&, Elengy & MamoTCV
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
A consortium of advisors has worked in four work-packages
2
Detailed Option Analysis & CBA1
LNG Bunkering Market Study
Technical and Option Analysis
CBA and sensitivity
scenarios
A
B
C
Risk Assessment2
Preliminary risk
assessment
Role requirements &
reporting
A B
Legislative / Regulatory Analysis3
Identification of leg.,
regulator, codes & st.
Gap
analysis
Proposal of
Amendments
Recommended policy
measures
A B C D
Training Needs Analysis4
Training
identification
Curriculum
proposal
A B
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
The starting point
The case of LNG for bunkering
Competitive landscape
Results of the CBA analysis
Appendix - Projected LNG for bunkering future demand in Malta
3
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total bunkering activities in Malta have grown in the last years (up to ~1.9 Mton in 2016)
4
1,060
(85.5%)
180
(14.5%)
1,240
2013
1,912
1,302
(81.5%)
217
(17.1%)
390
(20.4%)
1,597
1,521
(79.6%)
296
(18.5%)
1,270
+15.5%
1,053
(82.9%)
2015 20162014
Total bunkers handled in Malta – kton/year
HFO MGO
# of calls 4383 4321 4559 4596
Avg ton/ #
of calls283 294 350 416
Likely increasing due
to bunkering
competiveness
Growth driven by
competitive
prices
Focus of next slide
Sources: Transport Malta; Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Going forward, bunkering activities in Malta will likely grow in line with GDP, potentially reaching 3.7 Mton in 2056
5
Bunkering volume projections in Malta based on EU GDP growth – Mton/year of HFO/MGO
20
16
1.9
20
56
20
26
2.32.1
3.7
20
31
2.5
CAGR +1.7% p.a.
20
21
Sources: OECD long-term forecast; Transport Malta; Strategy& analysis.
Based on forecasted by OECD of EU GDP
long-term growth, without considering any
efficiency gains
2017 - 2020 2021 - 2025 2026 - 2030 2031 - 2056
Average EU GDP growth p.a. – data in %
1.97% 1.91% 1.90% 1.50%
Average EU GDP growth for 2017-2056 is ~1.7% p.a.
SSS+LSS
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Malta is also strategically positioned to become a LNG bunkering hub, especially for LSS ships coming from Suez Canal
North Mediterranean, West, S.W.
MediterraneanMalta has a STRONG geographical advantage as potential hub for long vessels
Potential competition from Suez Canal, Crete and Sicily
North West Europe, U.K., Baltic Sea,
America, Others
Potentially will pass close to North African coast to avoid ECA zone (from Suez to Gibraltar)
To be considered only in case of Mediterranean as full-ECA scenario (IMO)
East , S.E. Mediterranean, Black SeaMalta has NO geographical advantage as potential hub for long vessels
Potential competition from Suez Canal, Turkey, Crete and other Greek ports
Sources: www.suezcanal.gov.eg, Strategy& Analysis
6
North
Mediterranean
West, S.W.
Mediterranean
East , S.E.
Mediterranean;
Black sea
N.W. Europe; UK;
Baltic sea;
America; Others
8,703
3,696
1,005
1,659
2,343
Suez Canal
Malta
Number of vessels entering in Med. Sea from Suez Canal - 2016
Total number of
vessels passing
through Suez Canal
is 16,833 (8,703
South/North and
8,130 North/South)
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
The starting point
The case of LNG for bunkering
Competitive landscape
Results of the CBA analysis
Appendix - Projected LNG for bunkering future demand in Malta
7
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Note: LNG carriers not included
Sources: DNV-GL LNG Status Update 2017; LNG World Shipping, Strategy& analysis
8
LNG as fuel for ships is emerging as an attractive and growing alternative
76 97
126
175
209 225 234 238 239 241 241 241 35
54 68 87 100 114 114 114 114 114 114
56 46
35 25 21
5
16 32
66
115
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
LNG ships
355
20
25
20
26
355
20
24
355
2
20
22
7
20
20
355341
20
23
3
355355
20
21
20
19
328
20
12
80
132
20
13
20
11
4
295
20
17
20
16
20
15
20
14
20
18
309
20
09
20
10
Worldwide LNG ships – 2009-2026E Typical end-users
Regular, repetitive, stable and fuel intensive engine utilization vessels
• Passenger Ships
• Cruise Ships
• Service & Supply Vessels
• Container, Ro-Ro & cargo Ships
• Tankers & Bulkers
LNG ships in operation
LNG ships on order
LNG ready ships
Forecast
Out of the 123 ships on
order at 2017, 8 are
planned to be built in 2017
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
In particular, cruise companies are starting to invest in new LNG-fuelled cruise vessels
1
9
Sources: Public articles and news, Strategy& analysis
2
4
4
2
17
1
Total2019
1
2018 2020 2021 2022 2023
1
2024 20262025
1
1
Number of LNG-fuelled cruise ships on order – delivery dates
Represents ~
25% of all 73
cruise tonnage
on order in 2017
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 10
The LNG market has mainly developed in the North/ Baltic Sea region, with Wärtsilä as leading engine maker
LNG-fuelled ships by region in 2017 LNG-fuelled ships by engine maker
Note: LNG carriers not included
Sources: DNV-GL LNGi Status Update 2017; LNG World Shipping, Strategy& analysis
44
28
16
35
10 15
59
7 7
1417
2
22
75
2
Unnamed
0
Others
79
324
In operationOn order
60
13 22
15
8
15
7
55
37
6
Other
global
2
Europe
13
1
Oceania
77
Middle
East
AsiaAmerica
68
28
52
Norway
On order In operation
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
In fact, an LNG bunkering market has first emerged in Norway, also supported by Governments’ incentive scheme
• An LNG bunkering market has emerged in the last
year in Nordics, after the Baltic and North Sea
became an ECA
• The Norwegian NOx Fund was established in
2008 with the objective of reducing Norwegian NOx
emissions by financing concrete measures for
ships, offshore installations and land-based industry
• The fund is financed by its members
‒ Ferries and cargo vessels pay on the one hand 0.5 € per kilo NOx(1) to the fund, and …
‒ … in return, they can receive support for investments aimed to reduce NOx
• LNG-fuelled ships are eligible for 19€ per kg NOx
yearly emission reductions, limited to 75% of the
additional cost (e.g. CAPEX) of LNG propulsion
• One of the most effective NOx-reduction
measures for ships is switching to LNG fuel,
which reduces the NOx emissions by 85-90%
• There are 60 ships operating on LNG fuel in
Norway (+8 in order)
• The NOx Fund has granted support to over 60
ships converted to LNG or new ships (in
operation and on order)
• The total funding to LNG projects amounts to
more than 110M€ in the last three years
11
Norway’s NOx Fund Background Results
1) 57 gr NOx per kg HFO
Sources: Internet research, LNG as a ship fuel report (DNV-GL), Norwegian NOx Fund as a driving force for LNG use (Viking Line Seminar), Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
LNG infrastructure
Total LNG fleet by type
Existing plus on-order until 2018
11 7
2
20
4
24
Car/passenger
ferry
OtherPSVGeneral
Cargo
Ro-RoRoPax
Norway is pioneer in LNG for bunkering (68 vessels by 2018)
12
8 8
4 5
12
5
10
3
6 6
1
68 69
84
69 65 68 70
63
74 72 72 68
0
5
10
15
20
0
20
40
60
80
100
# new
ships
20182016
# new LNG
ships
20172008 2011 20142012 20152009 2010 2013
% of penetration
1.4% 9.5% 8.6% 4.4% 15.4% 7.2% 7,2% 5,8%14.3%
Norway case – LNG ships evolution
1) Penetration rate is obtained dividing new LNG ships by total new ships every year
Note: average registration from 2013 to 2016 are used to compute the penetration rate from 2017, which is assumed constant
Sources: DNV-GL LNGi Status Update 2017 ; LNG as a ship fuel report (DNV-GL), GIE Small Scale LNG Map, World Shipping Register, Strategy& analysis
11% 11%
New LNG ships New ships (all types)
Total 68 ships
Most LNG Vessels
are operated on
fixed routes, in
relative close range
of home (availability
of LNG)
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Different business models for LNG bunkering have been developed in Norway
BunkeringLocal LNG Production/StorageTransportationSupply
Onshore Terminal-to-Ship
• Commonly used in
Norway (8 ports)
• Permanent piping
and loading arms
Truck-to-Ship
• Used in Norway
• Night bunkering
• Truck’s capacity
limits, several
trucks are required
for bunkering(2)
• 15 LNG bunkering terminals in operation, 2 decided, 6
under discussion
• 5 LNG terminals
• 26 small truck terminals
• 8 ship terminal tanks
• Transportation by LNG carrier (e.g., Pioneer Knutsen
1.1k m3) or by truck
Ship-to-Ship (offshore)
• Started in 2015
with the offshore
bunkering of a
chemical tanker by
an LNG bunker
vessel (Skangas)
500-700 m3
35-55 m3
5800 m3
1.1k m3
35-55 m3
Sm
all
LN
G L
oc
al P
lan
ts
1
• Secondary distribution
is done by a new small
scale LNG vessel(1)
• Transportation from
source by LNG carriers Anthony Veder’s Coral Methane
Zeebrugge 261k
m3 – 4 storages
7.5 – 15k m3
150k m3
Re-E
xp
ort
fro
m L
NG
Te
rmin
al2
1
13
1) Currently 1 LNG vessel for transportation from Zeebrugge (7.5k m3) – 1 additional LNG carrier already ordered (15k m3) – 2 additional LNG vessels planned (10k m3)
2) Four truck loads are required for each bunkering operation if the LNG storage on the ferry (125m3) is empty – 1.5 hours each
Sources: Internet research, Strategy& analysis
Portable tank transfer is
not adopted in Norway
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 14
Based on our experience, main drivers for bunkering LNG uptake are international regulation and TCO
Drivers Key TrendsRelative
Importance
Regulation
• IMO and governments play a key role for LNG uptake via emission regulations, excise tax, or
subsidies (like the NOx fund in Norway)
• Overall favourable context: Med basin coasts will became an ECA zone in 2020 – Only when Med
will be an ECA, regulation will allow 3 main technologies: Heavy fuel + scrubber, Low Sulphur Fuel
and LNG
4
TCO and
convenience
for end
users
• Price spread between LNG and other fuels will be a key determinant for the LNG bunkering uptake
• Assuming current price scenarios, LNG has similar ΔTCO of LNG vs HFO + Scrubber, while has
always a positive ΔTCO against MGO technology
• Incentives on CAPEX and bonus/malus on pollution are key to make LNG “in the money” (as
Norway)
3
Infrastructure
• Addressable market is generally concentrated in main ports – Investment are high, but market can
scale-up in shorter term, therefore returns could be interesting (only in case of regulatory support
and guaranteed demand)
• Most LNG vessels are operated on fixed routes, in relative close range of home (availability of
LNG)
• Truck-to-ship, implying limited investments, will be the most common initially; in the medium-long
run ship-to-ship bunkering will diffuse and is the preferred option for ship-owners
2
OEM’s
offering
• Technology in place -- main OEM in Europe of LNG engines are Wartsila, MAN and Rolls Royce
• Mainly applicable to new ships – Retrofitting is very costly
• Dual fuel is the most promising technology ensuring flexibility to ship owners
1
Green
image
• Not a key driver for the ship owner (guided by regulation and TCO)
• Increasing impacts for cruise ships, but no major investment in communication yet (e.g. Carnival)1
Source: Strategy& analysis
1
De
tail
s in
th
e
nex
t p
ag
es
2
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
A
E
BC
D
F
G
IH
15
Regulation is a pre-requisite for LNG bunkering: part of Mediterranean Sea will be an ECA zone starting from 2020
IMO’s world map for ECAs (Emission Control Areas)
Current ECA Possible future ECA
Sources: IMO, Strategy& analysis
0
5
10
15
20
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Global
SECA
SO
x %
Lim
its
NOx - Nitrogen Limit IMO Regulation to NECA and Global Area
SOx - Sulphur Content % Limit in Marine FuelsIMO Regulation to SECA and Global Area
Tier I
Tier III
Tier IIGlobal
Only NECA
NO
x L
imit
s, g
/kW
h
1 Regulation
Engine’s rated speed (rpm)
Rpm 130
Rpm 2000
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Regulatory changes will affect LNG bunker uptake – Experts confirm 0.5% Sulphur cap likely to be enforced in 2020
Sulphur
limits
ECA (1) 1,0% 1,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1%Whole Med as ECA?
200 miles off coast?
Global 4,5% 3,5% 3,5% 0,5% (2) 0,5% (2)
Enforced in EU Med?
Or whole Med?
NOx
limits
ECA (1)
Tier II on new
builds (3)
Tier III on new
builds (US only
from 2016) (3)
Tier III on new
builds (2021) (3)
Global
16
Overview of regulatory framework – impact in EU and Med
7/2010 1/2012 1/2015 1/2020 1/2025 >2025
Note 1) EU ECAs (Emission Control Areas): North and Baltic Sea
Note 2) Enforcement date review by IMO –in 2018 - will depend also on low sulphur fuel availability by refineries to match the emission requirements, but the consensus in the shipping worlds is for 2020
Note 3) Tier II: avg NOx at 9.6 g/kWh in fuel, Tier III: avg NOx at 2.3 g/kWh in fuel
Sources: Marine Service Gmbh 2014 report, DNV GL 2012 report, Industry news, International Chamber of Shipping, Experts interviews; Strategy& analysis
1 Regulation
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 17
Only at that time regulation will call for the adoption of three main technologies…
• Continue to use conventional fuel, which today is
used as the main fuel…
• … with the addition of an exhaust scrubber (specific
regulations to be detailed)
• Requires sizable modifications to the ship and
presents waste management issues
• Often referred to Marine Gas Oil (MGO) and
includes transport fuels such as gasoline and diesel
• This is where refiners make their margins
• If price gap between fuel oil and MGO increases
(higher oil demand), scrubbing becomes economic
• It is the simplest to implement
• LNG could be an alternative to conventional fuel
(potentially dual fuel)
• Today LNG is used in selected ECAs (Norway/
Baltic, USA, Japan) - Global acceptance requires
infrastructure in relevant harbours
• LNG is gaining momentum with vessel and OEMs
• Mainly applicable to new ships (some conversion
trials in Canada)
Conventional
Fuel (HFO)
+Scrubber
Low Sulphur
Fuel
(e.g. MGO)
Liquefied
Natural Gas
(LNG)
0
20
30
40
50
10
LNG Fuel ScrubberLow
Sulphur
Fuel
Conventional
Fuel
SOx EmissionsTonnes per year
CO2 EmissionsTonnes per year
4,000
6,000
2,000
0
8,000
LNG Fuel Conventional
Fuel
ScrubberLow
Sulphur
Fuel
200
160
40
80
120
0
Scrubber Conventional
Fuel
Low
Sulphur
Fuel
LNG Fuel
10
8
6
4
2
0
ScrubberLow
Sulphur
Fuel
LNG Fuel Conventional
Fuel
NOx EmissionsTonnes per year
Particle EmissionsTonnes per year
Overview of alternative technologies Environmental emissions (*)
Note (*): Considering a typical Baltic Sea cargo ship of approximately 2,700 gross tonnes, 3,300 kW main engine and 5,250 yearly sailing hours
Sources: DNV “Greener Shipping in the Baltic Sea” – June 2010; WPCI; Strategy& analysis
1 Regulation
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
… ship owners will investigate on pros and cons of available alternatives
18
CAPEX Fuel CostFuel
Availability
Operating
costsEmissions Comments
Conventional
Fuel (HFO)
+ Scrubber- ++ ++ - ?
• Significant alterations on-board: tanks, pipes,
pumps and water treatment system
• Slight increase of power consumption
Low Sulphur
Fuel
(e.g. MGO)++ - - - ++ +
• Limited availability of MGO at adequate specs
• No treatment on board
• Minor modifications to existing fuel system on
board
Liquefied
Natural Gas
(LNG)- - ? ? + ++
• Difficult logistics
• Significant alterations required, such as reduced
cargo capacity – New hull integrated tanks are
expected to simplify this issue
• Longer / more complex bunkering operations
(HSE issues, especially for passenger ships)
• Mainly applicable to new ships – difficult
retrofitting
• Well proven technology in selected ECA zones
Choice of Fuel/ Technology in ECA zones
Sources: Interviews, Strategy& analysis
1 Regulation
Strongly Favourable Favourable Legend Strongly Unfavourable Unfavourable Unclear++ + - - - ?
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Engine size kW kW kW
• Main 14,100 13,000 8,000
• Auxiliaries 1,650 2,300 1,100
Consumption Tons/d Tons/d Tons/d
• HFO 100% 47.2 39.4 27.7
• MGO 100% 42.9 35.8 25.1
• LNG 100% 35.5 29.7 20.9
Operating days d/year d/year d/year
• Main 280 160 280
19
In last year scenario, LNG seems attractive vs both MGO and HFO + scrubber
TCO for Malta (LNG vs. alternative fuels, in M€)
General Cargo (Ro-Ro) Passenger (Ro-Pax) Container/Feeder (GT<20k)
Note: Maintenance for LNG and MGO assumed equal
Sources: www.shipandbunker.com; Interviews; Strategy& TCO model and analysis
HFO+SCR MGOLNG
5
80
55
71
8 45
5
5042
7
62
Capex MaintenanceFuel cost
1.8
MGOLNG HFO+SCR
24
36
494064
29
7
4
41
35
MGOHFO+SCRLNG
34
42
38 3
3
48
3
30
4
56
25
Pay-back
2 TCO
Based on 2017 average prices (source: www.shipandbunker.com - last 12 months):
LNG (commodity): 5.5$/mmbtu; HFO: 320 €/ton; MGO: 502 €/ton
3.5 2.73.7 2.22.6
Payback
period of LNG
compared to
(HFO + SCR)
and MGO
respectively –
focus of next
slide
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 20
Payback period has been calculated considering LNG solution compared to (HFO + Scrubber) and MGO respectively
Note: Values of Capex and Opex shown in the graphs have been already discounted assuming a 7% discount factor
Sources: Strategy& TCO model and analysis
2 TCO
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
6,000
0
2,000
4,000
$ in Thousands
Capex LNG - Capex (HFO + Scrubber)
Cumulative Opex (HFO + Scrubber) - Cumulative Opex LNG
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0
10,000
5,000
15,000
$ in Thousands
LNG vs (HFO + Scrubber) LNG vs MGO
GE
NE
RA
L C
AR
GO
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2,000
0
1,000
3,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1,000
0
3,000
2,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 70
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
PA
SS
EN
GE
RC
ON
TA
INE
R F
EE
D
Time (years) Time (years)
3.5 Yrs 1.8 Yrs
3.7 Yrs 2.7 Yrs
2.6 Yrs 2.2 Yrs
Capex LNG - Capex MGO
Cumulative Opex MGO - Cumulative Opex LNG
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Retrofitting requires significant investment both in Opex and Capex…
2 TCO
21
CA
PE
X
LNG SYSTEM
LNG tanks
OP
EX
ENGINE ROOM
MID-BODY SECTION
Main costs of retrofitting
Gas supply system
Retrofit of engines
Modification of machinery systems
Prefabrication & transportation of new
section
Cabins / common spaces, etc.
Retrofitting - Illustrative
CONSUMABLES
Lubricants
MAINTENANCE
FUEL
Gas supply system
Engine maintenance intervals
LNG supply system maintenance
Cost of having the ship off-
hire should also be taken
into consideration
Sources: DNV GL study: “Retrofitting cruise ships to LNG by elongation – A crazy idea?”; Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
… that results overall in an expensive solution if compared with alternatives (e.g. scrubber)
2 TCO
22
7
7
31
8
21
74
LNG tanks and systems
Outfitting
Engineering cost
Steel cost
Total Cost - Excluding off-hire
4 x DF engine retrofit
High level cost estimate for retrofit vs scrubber system for a cruise ship – Million USD
Retr
ofi
tH
yb
rid
sc
rub
ber
5
20
15Equipment
Yard
Total Cost
Note: Maintenance for LNG and MGO assumed equal
Sources: DNV GL study: “Retrofitting cruise ships to LNG by elongation – A crazy idea?”; Strategy& analysis
Considering a ship with
the following
characteristics:
– Beam: 32m
– Length overall: 300m
– Ship GT: 75,000
– Engines: 4x MAN
12V48/60 at
12,600kW
Considering to install a
hybrid system on the ship
using 4 scrubbers, one
per engine
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
The starting point
The case of LNG for bunkering
Competitive landscape
Results of the CBA analysis
Appendix - Projected LNG for bunkering future demand in Malta
23
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Malta increased its bunkering activities also thanks to competitive pricing
Bunkering in Malta - kton/year
Sources: Transport Malta; Ship & Bunkering, Strategy& analysis
2013
1,240
2016
1,912
+54%
Average prices of HFO and MGO Dec ‘16 – Dec ‘17 - $/ton
320
503
323
514
328
539
333
548
335
532
385
509
HFO (IFO 380) MGO
Va
lle
tta
Pira
eu
s
Alg
ecira
s
Au
gu
sta
Ge
no
a
Ista
nb
ul
Va
lle
tta
Pira
eu
s
Alg
ecira
s
Au
gu
sta
Ge
no
a
Ista
nb
ul
24
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 25
Majority of lines passing by Malta come from Italy, Egypt, Spain and Greece - Piraeus is the most frequent port
Number of 1st last port calls in 2017 – by port
Sources: Transport Malta – Extract of port calls ; Strategy& analysis
101010101010
12121213141515
192020
222223
2731
42
564Las Palmas
Other 234 ports
Antwerpen
Siracusa
Genova
Piraeus
Catania
Le Havre
Port Said
Palermo
Koper
Alexandria
Valencia
Singapore
Palma de Mallorca
Porto Nogaro
Augusta
Algiers
Aliaga
Barcelona
Suez
Tanger Med
Damietta
Number of 1st last port calls in 2017 – by country
Total # of calls
for the extract
received by TM in
2017 is 943
266
10
10
10
12
16
24
26
27
28
29
36
40
68
72
77
192
NET
BEL
Other
ALG
ASIA
MOR
TUN
CRO
SLO
LIB
MAL
TUR
EGY
SPA
FRA
ITA
GRE
Represent
~43% of total
calls reported in
the extractTop three ports
by # of port
calls in 2017
“Other” includes other
countries as well as ports with
less than two port calls in 2017
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 26
Most frequent countries of destination are Italy, Egypt, Algeria and Turkey – Piraeus and Salerno are the most frequent ports
Sources: Transport Malta - Extract of port calls; Strategy& analysis
Number of next port calls in 2017 – by port
111111111111
13141415151515161617171717
223031
Palermo
Nemrut Bay
Singapore
Valencia
Skikda
Misurata
593Other 243 Ports
Tripoli
Livorno
Genova
Barcelona
Algiers
Catania
Port Said
Salalah
Suez
Damietta
Algeciras
Salerno
Tanger Med
Alexandria
Beirut
Piraeus
Number of next port calls in 2017 – by country
Total # of calls
for the extract
received by TM in
2017 is 943
332
9
10
11
13
14
17
19
21
27
29
47
47
49
50
66
182
ALG
ITA
EGY
Other
CRO
SAU
UAE
TUN
ASIA
LEB
LIB
OMA
SPA
UK
MOR
GRE
TUR
Represent
~37% of total
calls reported in
the extract
“Other” includes other
countries as well as ports with
less than two port calls in 2017
Top three ports
by # of port
calls in 2017
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 27
Today, in the Med area there are 20 LNG terminals in operation and 10 planned or under construction
Existing and planned LNG terminals in the Mediterranean basin
Fos Tonkin
Elengy (1972)
Porto Levante
Adriatic LNG (2009)Panigaglia
GNL Italia (1971)
Revithussa
Desfa (2000)
Cartagena
Enagas (1989)
Sagunto
Saggas (2006)
Barcelona
Enagas (1968)
Huelva
Enagas (1988)3
4 Marmara
Botas (1994)1
2
Fos Cavaou
Fosmax (2010) Olt Offshore
Olt (2013)5
6
Planned/ under evaluation
LNG Terminal
• Falconara Marittima – Api Nova energia
(2018)
• Oristano – 3xEdison (2018), IVI , Higas
• Gioia Tauro1 – LNG Medgas Terminal
(2019)
• Krk Island FSRU – LNG Hrvatska (2019)
• Eagle LNG FSRU – Burns (2020)
• Alexandroupolis FSRU – Gas Trade (2018)
• Saros FSRU – Botas (2019)
• Vassilikos – export terminal 2022
• Iskenderun FSRU– Botas 2019
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Aliaga
Ege Gas (2006)
7
8
Aliaga
Etkiliman
(2006)
9
1) Gioia Tauro terminal will be connected to the national gas grid. The project foresees the initial construction of two storage tanks for the regasification activities (send-out of 8 Bcm/y), the
construction of an additional tank in a following phase (total send-out of 12 Bcm/y) and the construction of a storage tank fully dedicated to the alternative uses of LNG (bunkering and truck
loading)
Sources: GIE Small Scale LNG Map 2017, Strategy& analysis
Arzew-Bethioua
Sonatrach
Skikda
Sonatrach
6 LNG export terminal
#
14 LNG Terminal in operation
Planned LNG Terminal
Damietta
SegasEdku
Egyptian LNG
Hadera
Ingl
Legend:
Turkey
Albania
Croatia
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
The starting point
The case of LNG for bunkering
Competitive landscape
Results of the CBA analysis
Appendix - Projected LNG for bunkering future demand in Malta
28
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 29
Cost Benefit Analysis has been performed considering market demand as forecasted in the MID Scenario
102129 139 151
234
291312
339
53
549
589
640
2043
2024
2020
2026
2027
2032
2028
2030
2034
2036
2039
2035
2038
2040
2042
2052
2044
2046
2048
2022
2054
2056
2041
2045
2021
2037
2023
2025
2029
2031
2049
2033
2047
2051
2053
2055
2050
438
31
11
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta – [ktpa]
LOW
MID
(Base Scenario)
HIGH
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 30
The analysis has been focused on four alternative solutions
Source: Strategy& analysis
Phase I Phase II ext. Phase III Volumes captured (ktpa)
2020-2025 2026-2030 2031-2056 CoD 2030 2040 2056
No
investments
Iso-
containers
On-shore
Tank
- 31 234 339
Onshore
Liquefaction
Plant
FSRU
FSU
1
2
3
4
# Solution considered
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 31
The CBA analysis has followed three steps, in line with European requirements
Sources: Guide to cost-benefit analysis of investment projects; Strategy& analysis
Phase
CBA analysis overview
Sensitivity analysis
and Risk assessment
Socio-economic
analysisFinancial analysis
Financial analysis from the
project perspective
(no grants / subsidies)
Financial analysis from
promoter perspective
(with grants / subsidies)
Financial sustainability
analysis
Identification of the factors
affecting the financial /
socio-economic analysis
Sensitivity analysis and
identification of the critical
factors
1 2 3
Identification of the socio-
economic benefits
Socio-economic
analysisProcess
steps
ObjectiveAssess the project profitability
and sustainability from a
financial perspective
Stress test the solidity of the
financial and socio-economic
analysis
Assess the benefits of the
project and its contribution to
welfare
KPIs• FNPV (C), FNPV (K)
• IRR (C), IRR (K)
• Financial Payback (C, K)
• FNPV (C), ENPV• ENPV
• ERR
• Economic payback
Preparation of a risk
mitigation plan
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 32
The ultimate goal of the CBA has been to confirm whether the project is sustainable for the Society
Sources: Guide to cost-benefit analysis of investment projects; Strategy& analysis
CBA rationale / ultimate goal
Negative CBA outcome
Positive CBA outcome
Risk assessmentSocio-economic analysisFinancial analysis
1 2 3
Financial
analysis
(FNPV)
Project does not
require financial
support>0
<0
Society is better off
with the project
Society is better off
without the project
Sensitivity
analysis
!
Socio-economic
analysis
(ENPV)
>0
<0
Project requires
financial support
Identification of
the EU financial
support
!
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 33
To perform the analysis, we have created a flexible and user friendly model which can simulate different scenarios
CONTROL PANEL DASHBOARD / RESULTS
Technical solution 1 RESULTS
1.1 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Return on Investment (CAPEX excl. Contingencies)
FNPV(C) Mn € -42
FRR (C) % 4.2%
Return on National Capital (CAPEX incl. Contingencies)
Market scenario FNPV(K) Mn € -28
FRR (K) % 4.8%
F-Payback years 24.6
1.2 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Financial Discount Rate ENPV Mn € 345
ERR % 13.2%
B/C RATIO - 2.58
E-Payback years 16.8
Opportunity to chose among different
options and assumptionsAutomatic update of main results
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 34
Combination of Isocontainer and Onshore tank shows the highest financial and economic indicators
Summary of CBA results (Mn EUR)
Source: Strategy& analysis
Technical option Financial analysis Economic analysis
Phase II Phase IIICAPEX
(P.II-III)
FNPV(C)
@6.5%FRR(C)
FNPV(K)
@6.5%FRR(K)
Operati
ng
Losses
ENPV
@5%
ERR
(%)B/C
ISO
CO
NTA
INE
RS
ONSHORE
TANK
211
Mn€
-56
Mn€3.5%
-17
Mn€5.4%
-21
Mn€
970
Mn€21.0% 5.14
LIQUEFACTION
PLANT
499
Mn€
-425
Mn€n/a
-336
Mn€n/a
-493
Mn€
372
Mn€9.8% 1.67
FSRU540
Mn€
-375
Mn€-10%
-278
Mn€n/a
-143
Mn€
432
Mn€9.8% 1.71
FSU394
Mn€
-317
Mn€n/a
-246
Mn€n/a
-201
Mn€
453
Mn€10.9% 1.83
1 2
High Capex for options 2 to 4
have an impact on financial
analysis
High Opex for options 2 to 4
have an impact on financial
sustainability
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Possiblelocation
1
3 – Liquefaction Plant
2 & 3 offshore
Located somewhere
else in Delimara or
in other ports 2 & 3 – Onshore Tanks
35
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC 36
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Sensitivity analysis has been performed considering critical variables affecting financial and economic results
Identification of critical factors
37
Area Variable UnitΔ
Variable
ΔFNPV
Critical?Δ
ENPVCritical?
Volume Volume ktpa + 1% -2.9% YES 1.3% YES
Costs
Capex Mn € + 1% 3.4% YES -0.2% NO
Opex (excluding commodity) Mn € + 1% 1.6% YES -0.2% NO
LNG Commodity Cost € / ton + 1% 8.0% YES -0.5% NO
Price of Fuels
LNG Price in Malta € / ton + 1% -11.4% YES 0.0% NO
LNG Price in in Med Area € / ton + 1% 0.0% NO 0.7% NO
Margins on HFO/MGO % + 1% 0.0% NO 0.0% NO
EnvironmentPrice of CO2 € / ton + 1% 0.0% NO 0.1% NO
Price of Air Pollutants € / ton + 1% 0.0% NO 0.9% NO
Critical factors Non critical factors
Sensitivity analysis to be
performed on these factors
1
2
3
4
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Results of sensitivity analysis show that economics remain positive in any scenario considered
Sensitivity analysis on critical factors for solution 2
38
Variable ScenarioΔ
FNPV
FNPVMn €
FRR%
ΔENPV
ENPV
Mn €
ERR
%
VolumeLOW -130% -124 -3.1% -73% 265 11.3%
HIGH +35% -35 5.4% 98% 1930 23.6%
Capex+25% -73% -93 2.2% -5% 923 18.7%
-25% +72% -15 5.6% 5% 1030 24.5%
Opex+25% -32% -71 2.7% -4% 933 20.2%
-25% +31% -37 4.6% 4% 1020 22.1%
LNG Commodity Cost+25% -156% -138 -5.2% -12% 859 19.7%
-25% +158% 31 7.8% 12% 1094 22.5%
LNG Price+25% +223% 66 9.1% 0% 976 21.1%
-25% -223% -174 n/a 0% 976 21.1%
Economics remain positive
for every scenario
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
The starting point
The case of LNG for bunkering
Competitive landscape
Results of the CBA analysis
Appendix - Projected LNG for bunkering future demand in Malta
39
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Projected LNG bunkering demand in Malta ranges between ~150 ktpa and 640 ktpa in 2056
102129 139 151
234
291312
339
53
549
589
640
20
28
20
56
20
26
20
22
20
20
20
34
20
24
20
30
20
32
20
36
20
38
20
40
20
42
20
44
20
46
20
48
20
50
20
52
20
54
1131
438
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta – [ktpa]
LOW
MID
(Base Scenario)
HIGH
40
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering demand by port in Malta - High Scenario
41
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
HIGH
20
39
20
54
20
51
20
48
20
27
20
26
187
20
23
20
33
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
52
20
24
20
44
20
31
20
25
20
46
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
32
20
34
53
20
35
20
36
20
37
20
38
20
40
20
41
20
42
20
50
20
43
20
45
9
20
47
20
49
20
53
640
20
55
549
20
56
69
438
589
1
Valletta Marsaxlokk Outside Harbour
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering demand by port in Malta - Mid Scenario
42
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
2
20
44
20
45
20
40
20
37
20
36
20
35
106
20
38
291
20
46
20
49
20
47
20
48
20
41
234
20
43
20
42
20
39
20
33
20
31
315
20
24
20
23
20
21
20
20
20
22
20
32
20
30
20
29
20
25
20
27
20
26
20
28
20
34
40
339
20
56
20
55
20
54
20
53
20
50
312
20
51
20
52
Marsaxlokk Outside HarbourValletta
MID
(Base Scenario)
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering demand by port in Malta - Low Scenario
43
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
3
151
20
50
139
20
52
20
53
20
56
20
55
20
54
20
51
20
46
20
44
20
41
20
43
20
42
20
49
20
47
20
40
102
20
45
129
20
39
20
48
11
20
28
2
20
33
20
29
20
27
20
26
15
20
24
20
25
20
37
20
34
20
30
20
36
20
20
20
21
20
35
20
32
20
23
20
22
41
20
31
20
38
Outside HarbourMarsaxlokkValletta
LOW
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering demand by vessel in Malta - High Scenario
44
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
HIGH
20
41
20
39
20
40
438
20
38
20
36
20
37
20
56
20
54
589
20
52
640
20
51
20
55
20
53
20
50
20
48
20
46
20
44
20
49
20
47
20
45
549
20
43
20
42
20
35
20
30
20
23
20
28
20
26
20
24
20
33
20
31
20
22
20
21
20
20
20
34
20
29
69
20
27
20
25
187
20
32
539
1
Gen Cargo Bulk carrierTankersContainersRoRo-RoPax
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering demand by vessel in Malta - Mid Scenario
45
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
2
20
37
20
40
20
42
234
20
39
20
38
20
43
20
41
20
35
20
36
106
20
34
20
33
312339
20
52
20
50
20
55
20
51
20
53
20
54
20
45
20
48
291
20
44
20
46
20
49
20
47
20
20
20
24
20
21
20
23
20
22
20
56
4031
20
29
20
30
5
20
27
20
25
20
28
20
32
20
31
20
26
ContainersRoRo-RoPax Tankers Bulk carrierGen Cargo
MID
(Base Scenario)
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering demand by vessel in Malta - Low Scenario
46
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
3
20
52
20
51
20
50
20
53
20
56
139
20
55
20
54
20
46
20
47
20
49
20
48
20
45
129
20
44
20
43
20
42
102
20
39
20
40
20
38
20
41
20
35
20
34
20
37
20
36
41
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
15
20
28
11
20
27
20
25
151
20
29
2
20
24
20
21
20
26
20
22
20
20
20
23
RoRo-RoPax Containers Tankers Gen Cargo Bulk carrier
LOW
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
In terms of LNG ships equivalent, # of ships in Malta ranges between 19 and 84 in 2056
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
47
191818
12
4
4339
36
29
11
84
76
70
56
20
20
52
20
48
20
50
20
46
20
34
20
54
20
42
20
36
20
38
20
32
20
30
20
28
20
56
20
44
20
40
20
26
20
22
20
24
20
20
1
LOW
MID
(Base Scenario)
HIGH
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total number of LNG ships by port - High Scenario
48
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
HIGH
20
21
20
20
20
23
20
22
20
54
20
45
20
52
20
50
20
49
76
70
20
51
20
53
20
44
20
56
84
20
48
20
46
20
47
20
55
20
33
20
32
7
20
30
4
20
20
38
20
41
20
40
20
31
20
43
20
42
20
39
20
37
20
35
20
36
20
34
56
20
24
20
27
20
29
20
28
20
25
20
26
1
1
Valletta Marsaxlokk Outside Harbour
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total number of LNG ships by port - Mid Scenario
49
2
20
54
20
56
43
20
55
20
43
20
36
20
44
20
31
20
41
20
37
20
47
20
45
20
42
11
20
46
20
52
20
34
20
48
36
20
33
20
32
20
49
29
20
38
20
35
20
51
20
40
20
39
20
53
20
50
39
20
20
20
30
20
24
20
26
20
29
032
20
22
20
27
20
28
20
23
20
21
20
25
MarsaxlokkValletta Outside Harbour
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
MID
(Base Scenario)
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total number of LNG ships by port - Low Scenario
50
3
12
20
40
20
39
20
30
20
29
20
25
20
34
20
42
42
03
7
20
35
20
38
20
31
1
20
27
20
44
20
28
20
26
20
43
20
41
20
36
20
33
1
20
32
20
22
20
21
20
20
20
24
20
23
20
47
20
46
20
45
20
55
18
20
50
20
51
19
20
48
20
56
20
54
20
53
18
20
49
20
52
Outside HarbourMarsaxlokkValletta
LOW
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total number of LNG ships by type of service (SSS/LSS) - High Scenario
51
HIGH
20
20
84
20
55
20
54
20
53
20
52
20
51
20
50
20
56
20
43
20
42
20
36
20
35
20
46
20
40
20
41
76
20
39
20
34
20
33
20
32
7
20
30
20
45
20
49
56
70
20
47
20
37
20
31
20
44
20
4
20
48
20
38
20
29
20
28
20
27
20
26
20
25
1
20
24
20
23
20
22
20
21
1
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
LSS
SSS
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total number of LNG ships by type of service (SSS/LSS) - Mid Scenario
52
29
20
41
20
40
36
20
44
20
43
20
42
20
46
20
45
20
49
20
48
20
47
39
20
39
43
20
56
20
55
20
52
20
51
20
50
20
54
20
53
20
22
20
36
20
37
11
2
20
29
20
25
20
27
20
24
20
20
3
20
26
20
30
20
28
20
33
20
35
0
20
32
20
38
20
34
20
31
20
23
20
21
LSS
SSS
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
2MID
(Base Scenario)
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total number of LNG ships by type of service (SSS/LSS) - Low Scenario
53
20
45
20
48
20
43
20
42
20
51
12
20
55
20
50
18
20
41
20
40
20
39
20
53
18
20
56
19
20
54
20
52
20
49
20
47
20
46
20
44
20
22
20
32
20
26
20
33
4
20
31
1
20
29
20
28
20
27
20
37
20
25
20
24
20
23
20
30
20
20
1
20
21
20
38
20
34
20
36
20
35
1
LSS
SSS
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
3 LOW
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total number of LNG ships by type of vessel - High Scenario
54
HIGH
20
56
76
20
49
84
20
55
20
53
20
52
20
54
20
51
20
50
20
48
20
47
20
46
70
20
41
56
4
20
34
20
43
20
31
20
30
20
39
20
37
20
35
20
33
7
20
28
20
27
20
26
20
25
1
20
24
20
40
20
44
20
38
20
36
20
42
20
20
29
20
32
20
20
20
22
20
23
20
21
20
45
1
TankersContainersRoRo-RoPax Bulk carrierGen Cargo
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total number of LNG ships by type of vessel - Mid Scenario
55
20
21
20
20
20
22
20
23
20
55
20
56
43
20
46
20
49
20
48
39
20
45
20
52
20
43
20
42
20
51
36
20
40
20
39
20
38
20
35
20
47
11
20
41
20
34
20
54
29
20
53
20
33
20
50
20
44
20
31
20
37
20
36
20
32
20
30
2
20
28
20
26
3
20
27
20
25
0
20
24
20
29
Bulk carrierTankersContainersRoRo-RoPax Gen Cargo
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
2MID
(Base Scenario)
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total number of LNG ships by type of vessel - Low Scenario
56
19
20
51
20
47
20
46
20
50
20
45
18
20
44
20
43
20
42
20
52
20
56
20
55
18
20
49
20
48
20
54
20
53
20
24
20
36
1
20
23
20
40
20
35
1
20
38
20
34
20
33
20
28
20
31
20
37
20
26
20
25
20
32
20
41
4
20
30
20
39
20
29
12
20
22
20
21
20
20
20
27
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
3 LOW
Gen CargoContainers Tankers Bulk carrierRoRo-RoPax
2020-2024 2025-2030 2031-2056
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering and new LNG vessels in Malta by port -Mid Scenario
57
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 5 31 106 234 291 312 339
Valletta 0 0 2 8 21 28 30 33
Marsaxlokk 0 4 22 64 80 86 92 100
Outside Harbour 0 1 7 34 133 176 189 205
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 0 2 11 29 36 39 43
Valletta 0 0 0 1 3 3 4 5
Marsaxlokk 0 0 2 6 7 8 8 9
Outside Harbour 0 0 0 4 19 25 27 29
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
MID
(Base Scenario)
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering and new LNG vessels in Malta by vessel –Mid Scenario
58
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 5 31 106 234 291 312 339
RoRo-RoPax 0 0 2 6 13 17 18 20
Containers 0 5 25 73 90 97 104 113
Tankers 0 0 1 10 52 71 76 83
Gen Cargo 0 0 2 16 72 97 105 114
Bulk carrier 0 0 0 1 6 9 9 10
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 0 2 11 29 36 39 43
RoRo-RoPax 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2
Containers 0 0 2 7 8 9 9 10
Tankers 0 0 0 1 7 9 10 11
Gen Cargo 0 0 0 2 12 16 17 19
Bulk carrier 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
MID
(Base Scenario)
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering and new LNG vessels in Malta by service (SSS/LSS) - Mid Scenario
59
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 5 31 106 234 291 312 339
SSS 0 5 27 79 103 114 122 132
LSS 0 0 4 27 131 177 190 206
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 0 2 11 29 36 39 43
SSS 0 0 2 8 9 10 11 12
LSS 0 0 0 3 20 26 28 31
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
MID
(Base Scenario)
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering and new LNG vessels in Malta by port -High Scenario
60
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 9 53 187 438 549 589 640
Valletta 0 1 4 15 42 56 60 66
Marsaxlokk 0 7 36 106 134 144 155 168
Outside Harbour 0 1 13 66 262 348 374 406
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 1 4 20 56 70 76 84
Valletta 0 0 0 2 5 7 8 8
Marsaxlokk 0 1 3 10 12 13 14 16
Outside Harbour 0 0 1 8 39 50 54 60
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
Source: Strategy& analysis
HIGH
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering and new LNG vessels in Malta by vessel –High Scenario
61
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 9 53 187 438 549 589 640
RoRo-RoPax 0 1 4 12 26 34 36 39
Containers 0 8 41 121 150 162 173 188
Tankers 0 0 3 19 105 142 152 165
Gen Cargo 0 0 5 32 144 195 209 227
Bulk carrier 0 0 0 3 13 17 18 20
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
HIGH
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 1 4 20 56 70 76 84
RoRo-RoPax 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 4
Containers 0 1 3 11 14 15 16 17
Tankers 0 0 0 2 14 18 20 22
Gen Cargo 0 0 1 6 24 32 35 38
Bulk carrier 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 3
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering and new LNG vessels in Malta by service (SSS/LSS) - High Scenario
62
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 9 53 187 438 549 589 640
SSS 0 9 45 133 176 195 209 227
LSS 0 0 8 54 262 354 380 413
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
HIGH
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 1 4 20 56 70 76 84
SSS 0 1 3 12 16 18 19 21
LSS 0 0 1 8 40 52 57 63
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering and new LNG vessels in Malta by port –Low Scenario
63
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 2 11 41 102 129 139 151
Valletta 0 0 1 4 11 14 15 16
Marsaxlokk 0 1 7 21 27 29 31 34
Outside Harbour 0 0 3 16 64 86 92 100
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 0 1 4 12 18 18 19
Valletta 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2
Marsaxlokk 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 3
Outside Harbour 0 0 0 2 8 13 13 14
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
LOW
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering and new LNG vessels in Malta by vessel –Low Scenario
64
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 2 11 41 102 129 139 151
RoRo-RoPax 0 0 1 3 6 8 9 10
Containers 0 2 8 24 30 32 35 38
Tankers 0 0 1 5 26 35 38 41
Gen Cargo 0 0 1 8 36 49 52 57
Bulk carrier 0 0 0 1 3 4 5 5
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 0 1 4 12 18 18 19
RoRo-RoPax 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
Containers 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 3
Tankers 0 0 0 1 3 5 5 5
Gen Cargo 0 0 0 1 6 8 8 9
Bulk carrier 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
LOW
Source: Strategy& analysis
Tractebel - Strategy& | PwC
Total LNG bunkering and new LNG vessels in Malta by service (SSS/LSS) - Low Scenario
65
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 2 11 41 102 129 139 151
SSS 0 2 9 27 36 41 44 47
LSS 0 0 2 13 65 88 95 103
Total LNG bunkering consumption in Malta– [ktpa]
< 2025 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2056
Total 0 0 1 4 12 18 18 19
SSS 0 0 1 2 3 4 4 4
LSS 0 0 0 2 9 14 14 15
Total number of LNG ships in Malta – number of units
LOW
Source: Strategy& analysis