Technical Report 15th May 2012

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Daily Technical Report

May 15, 2012

Sensex (16216) / NIFTY (4908)

Yesterday, we witnessed a quiet opening on the backof mix global cues. However, inflation data

disappointed the street and markets tumbled down to

test mentioned support level of 16000 – 4850. A

minor recovery during the second half of the session

led indices to close just above 4900 mark. On the

sectoral front, O il & Gas, Banking and Realty were

among the major losers; whereas Health Care and IT

sectors ended marginally in the positive territory. The

advance to decline ratio was strongly in favor of

declining counters (A= 1047 D= 1657) (Source –

www.bseindia.com)

Formation

The 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) and

20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) have

now shifted to 16920 / 5100 and 16940 /

5130, respectively.

The ‘20-Week EMA’ is placed at 17100 / 5180

level.

Indices have now tested 16430 / 4950 level,which is the 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement level

of the rise from 15135 / 4531 (Low on

December 23, 2011) to 18524 / 5630 (High on

February 22, 2012).

Trading strategy:

Yesterday, selling pressure dragged indices

significantly lower to test mentioned support level of

16000 / 4850. Going forward, we reiterate thatconsidering oversold position of momentum

oscillators on the daily chart, it is not advisable to

create fresh short position at this juncture. However,

loss of momentum or an oversold condition in the

momentum oscillators does not necessarily signal a

price reversal. Hence, only a move beyond yesterday's

high of 16390 / 4957 may provide bounce for the

markets up to 16447 - 16700 / 4976 -5050 levels.

On the downside, 16000 - 15860 / 4850 - 4800

levels are likely to act as decent support for the

markets.

Exhibit 1: N ifty Daily Chart

Source: Falcon

Actionable poin ts:

View Neutral

Resistance Level 4957 – 5050

Support Levels 4850 – 4800




May 15, 2012


Bank N ifty Outlook - (9258)

Yesterday, Bank Nifty opened on a flat note and

selling pressure lead the index to test the lower end of

the mentioned range of 9700 – 9200. The “SpinningTop” candlestick pattern mentioned in our previous

report has been negated as the index managed to

give a close below 9296 level. However, in line with

the benchmark indices the momentum oscillators on

the daily chart continue to remain in an oversold

zone. The “Positive divergence” in momentum

oscillator “RSI” on the hourly chart mentioned in our

previous report is still intact. We reiterate that the

Bank Nifty is likely to trade in the mentioned range of

9200 – 9700. Within the mentioned range, 9380 –

9536 are likely to act as temporary resistance levels.

Only a close below 9200 will signal further weakness

in the index.

Actionable points:

View Neutral

Resistance Levels 9380 – 9536

Support Levels 9200 – 9106

Exhibit 2: Bank Ni fty Daily Chart

Source: Falcon





May 15, 2012

Dai ly Pivot Levels for N ifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2

SENSEX 15,978 16,097 16,244 16,363 16,509

NIFTY 4,830 4,869 4,913 4,952 4,996

BANKNIFTY 9,007 9,132 9,316 9,441 9,624

ACC 1,129 1,151 1,169 1,192 1,210

AMBUJACEM 138 141 144 147 150

ASIANPAINT 3,509 3,603 3,669 3,763 3,829

AXISBANK 957 977 995 1,016 1,034

BAJAJ-AUTO 1,531 1,559 1,579 1,607 1,627

BANKBARODA 596 610 633 647 669

BHARTIARTL 299 303 307 311 315

BHEL 208 213 218 223 229

BPCL 698 706 711 719 724

CAIRN 289 296 308 315 327

CIPLA 309 315 319 324 328

COALINDIA 311 313 317 320 323

DLF 175 179 184 188 193DRREDDY 1,630 1,651 1,673 1,694 1,716

GAIL 311 315 319 323 328

GRASIM 2,279 2,307 2,346 2,374 2,413

HCLTECH 466 476 483 492 499

HDFC 631 638 644 651 657

HDFCBANK 484 492 502 510 520

HEROMOTOCO 1,794 1,819 1,843 1,868 1,893

HINDALCO 107 110 113 115 118

HINDUNILVR 429 431 433 436 438

ICICIBANK 775 788 809 822 843

IDFC 114 116 120 122 126

INFY 2,288 2,314 2,330 2,355 2,371

ITC 230 232 234 236 238

JINDALSTEL 431 444 457 470 482

JPASSOCIAT 58 60 62 63 65

KOTAKBANK 524 532 539 547 553

LT 1,067 1,113 1,156 1,202 1,244

M&M 645 651 660 666 676

MARUTI 1,220 1,235 1,246 1,261 1,272

NTPC 144 146 148 150 152

ONGC 245 248 251 255 257

PNB 699 711 734 746 768

POWERGRID 99 100 101 102 103RANBAXY 470 479 485 494 499

RELIANCE 663 672 688 697 712

RELINFRA 442 451 466 475 489

SAIL 83 85 88 90 92

SBIN 1,768 1,804 1,850 1,886 1,932

SESAGOA 174 177 180 184 186

SIEMENS 691 702 710 721 729

STER 91 93 95 97 99

SUNPHARMA 555 566 574 585 593

TATAMOTORS 277 284 292 299 307

TATAPOWER 89 92 93 96 97

TATASTEEL 394 401 409 416 425

TCS 1,213 1,219 1,227 1,233 1,241

WIPRO 395 399 403 407 411



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May 15, 2012

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Research Team

Shardul Kulkarni - Head – Technicals Sameet Chavan - Technical Analyst

Sacchitanand Uttekar - Technical Analyst

Mehul Kothari - Technical Analyst

Ankur Lakhotia - Technical Analyst

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Technical Report 15th May 2012