21

TCR Volume 3 Number 12

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

First of a Two-Part Special Report on Disruptive Technologies

Citation preview

Page 1: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

21 HOW WE TRAVELSelf-Driving Vehicles Powered by Emission-Free Power Cells mdash and Pilotless Planes Too

bull Charge while you driveEngineers hope to both promote driverless cars and solve the charge anxiety related to electric cars by making wireless charging highways

bull Up next pilotless aircraftWith talk of the advent of driverless cars a prominent business publication finds its readers thinking that pilotless airplanes may come even sooner

bull Letrsquos not forget about trains As it turns out there are already driverless trains in varying degrees

bull The coming of the Industrial InternetAn industrial giant looks to connect machines to analytic and communications technology promising cost savings and efficiency across a number of industries

bull Whorsquos emitting greenhouse gasesA quick and dirty guide

bull Improved energy storage isnrsquot just about better batteriesStoring energy for later distribution can also have benefits for electric-grid management and resource usage

05 HOW WE LIVEMobile Internet Cloud Technology and the Internet of Things

13 HOW WE CONNECTEverybody Will Be Connected to the Internet Using a Variety of Devices

29 HOW WE POWER UPAlternative Energy and Storage TechnologiesCould Keep the Lights On Without Overheating Earth

Volume 3 bull Number 12 July 15 - 28 2013

Special Report on Disruptive TechnologiesPart One

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

perspective04you gottasee this12

wow tech28

body lab39supergraphic20

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool38

Strategic Analysis and Research by theCeNteR foR StRAtegy eNteRpRiSe amp iNtelligeNCe

The prospect of financial sector deleveraging in China increases the risk of a hard landing Although the probability hellip is still low itrsquos not low enough to make hedging costs irrelevant

~ Morgan Stanley investment bank commentary on July 10

In Japan growth will average 2 percent hellip The stronger forecast for 2013 than previously projected reflects the effects of recent accommodative policies on confidence and private demand

~ International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Update July 9

The CenSEI Report is now available for elite clients of major corporations at a special corporate gifts scheme For details please call or fax +632-5311182 or email marketingcenseisolutionscom

Center for Strategy Enterprise amp Intelligence provides expertise in strategy and management enterprise development intelligence Internet and mediaFor subscriptions research and advisory services please e-mail reportcenseisolutionscom or callfax +63-2-5311182 Links to online material on public

websites are current as of the week prior to the publication date but might be removed without warning Publishers of linked content should e-mail us or contact us by fax if they do not wish their websites to be linked to our material in the future

cenSEIT H E

Report

4

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

A Future Divined mdash With a Little Help from Our Friends Divining the future of everyday life in the coming decades of dizzyingly rapid change is never easy Especially with disruptive technologies radically recasting traditional and even cutting-edge ways of living life doing work shaping thoughts making connections and a host of other core human activities You ainrsquot seen nothing yet mdash thatrsquos for sure Or even imagined about how life will change

What makes the formidable challenge of researching and anticipating the shape of life to come a little less daunting is a little help from some techie friends One is the 21st-century researcherrsquos indispensable Swiss Army knife online search engines Indeed without the breath-taking rapidity of algorithms sifting through millions of materials online in nanoseconds The CenSEI Report would be a quarterly or half-yearly publication instead of a fortnightly

The eight major articles in this issue and the next discuss technologyrsquos impending impact on how we live and work think and connect travel and trade get well and power up Even more than usual the stories are packed with The CenSEI Reportrsquos online references and links from the seminal McKinsey amp Co study on disruptive technologies and their impact on business to the Asian Development Bankrsquos 2013 report highlighting the regionrsquos burgeoning energy needs and what must be done to keep the lights on the appliances working the factories humming and the connections well connected

If some of the information and insights cited and linked seem to be at odds with one another thatrsquos an indispensable part of how The CenSEI Report analyses and researches every subject Nearly every issue is never cut and dried black and white mdash most especially the hazy directions of life in the future Technology and how humanity uses it will always have good and bad results and we must reflect that in our articles For that full and unbiased perspective we thank our online friends and their inevitable discord and dissonances on the big questions tackled by The CenSEI Report

In its first installment the Special Report covers the impact of future tech on very basic aspects of everyday life living athome connecting with others moving about and harnessing light heat and power Most people would probably race to see the gadgetry in the kitchens and bathrooms in cellphones and tablets and on the road and the runway But really little of them would be running if not for the abundance availability and affordability of energy

The second and final part of the disruptive technologies report will cover more complex aspects of human affairs thinkingand learning manufacturing and medicine with an eighth article on how all the preceding seven would change the way we do business So buckle up for the dazzling ride to tomorrow free to debate every turn with the drivers

perspective

Go signal for same-sex marriage in California courtesy of the US Supreme CourtOn June 26 the United Statesrsquo Supreme Court struck down the federal Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) as unconstitutional and let stand a California lower court ruling allowing same-sex couples to marry in apparent challenge to Californiarsquos Proposition 8 initiative which banned same-sex marriage effectively allowing same-sex marriages in that state per a New York Times report

According to the report the unconstitutionality of DOMA refers primarily to its failure to extend equal protection under the law to same-sex couples as it does to heterosexual couples not to the constitutionality of same-sex marriages per se so the ruling doesnrsquot affect existing state laws banning same-sex marriages At the same time the Supreme Court declined to hear the case of the California lower court ruling saying that

California officials declined to appeal the lower court ruling against them but the proponents of Proposition 8 were not entitled to appeal the decision on behalf of the state which lets stand the challenge to Proposition 8 pending further legal action

The rulings drew an assortment of reactions from various sources ldquo(M)arriage

was created by the hand of God No man

not even a Supreme Court can undo what a

holy God has institutedrdquo

ndash Rep Michele Bachmann Republican congresswoman from Minnesota as quoted

in POLITICO on June 26

ldquoTodayrsquos ruling opens the door for

inevitable intolerance towards people of faith

who repudiate bigotry defend the image of God in all human beings and also believe that

marriage is a sacred union defined by Himrdquo

ndash Rev Samuel Rodriguez California pastor and president of the National

Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference as quoted in

The Christian Post on June 27

ldquo hellip Jesus himself only said

one thing about marriage which is that you canrsquot divorce

hellip And we live in a country were countless people are divorced and that doesnrsquot seem to threaten the religious liberty of Catholics and itrsquos as fundamental an issue hellip So if

Catholics can live with religious liberty with divorced people they should be

perfectly able to live with gay people I mean as married as a civil

marriagerdquo

ndash Gay commentator Andrew Sullivan as quoted in The

Raw Story on June 30

ldquoIf DOMA is unconstitutional that

means the Constitution is gay Of course no real

shocker It was written by a bunch of dudes in wigs and tights in the city of brotherly

loverdquo

ndash Stephen Colbert host of Comedy Centralrsquos The Colbert Report as quoted in The Hollywood

Reporter on June 26

Editorsrsquo Note Due to late publication issue date is adjusted to July 15-28 2013 Subscription periods will be extended accordingly

6

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

5

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Devices get connected and mobile apps will allow us to access and control themBy Pia Rufino

STRATEGY POINTSA report predicts there will be 25 billion devices connected to the Internet by 2015 50 billion by 2020

More apps are helping people monitor their health and control remote devices from their smartphones and tablets

Long development periods and adoption of 4G connectivity are barriers to machine-to-machine technology growth says experts

Itrsquos Sunday and itrsquos your turn to prepare the weekly family lunch your smartphone informs you that you have chicken carrots and potatoes inside your refrigerator and

recommends that you roast a chicken Roast chicken sounds good to you so the refrigerator sends a roast chicken recipe to the oven which then automatically preheats to the appropriate temperature

Meanwhile through another phone app your refrigerator says yoursquore running out of eggs and that the milk has crossed the expiration date so you have it do the online shopping While putting the chicken in the oven you remember that the washing machine is on so you ask your brother who is watching his

in an April 2011 paper ldquothe internet of things (iot) How the Next evolution of the internet is changing everythingrdquo Ciscorsquos internet Business Solutions group (iBSg) reported that as of 2010 there were about 125 billion objects connected to the internet more than the world population of 68 billion making 2010 the starting point for Ciscorsquos internet of things Dave evans Ciscorsquos chief futurist and author of the paper predicts that there will be 25 billion devices connected to the internet by 2015 and 50 billion by 2020

in a May 7 blog posted on the Harvard Business Review software development expert Stefan ferber says the internet of things reflects a

dramatic development in the internetrsquos evolution enabling communication among physical objects By 2015 6 billion devices will have access to the internet according to estimates by Bosch Software innovations in germany where ferber is the director for the Business Development of the internet of things and Services ldquothe fact that there will be a global system of interconnected computer networks sensors actuators and devices all using the internet protocol holds so much potential to change our lives that it is often referred to as the internetrsquos next generationrdquo he writes

Household robots getting back to your everyday life from the kitchen you use your phone

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

favorite basketball team to check if a cycle has been completed since the tVrsquos already on

Although this sounds like a fanciful futuristic fable these connected appliances already exist South Korean electronics company lg introduced this line of smart appliances with advanced features that requires wireless internet connection ldquooffering enhanced connectivity and greater user conveniencerdquo at the international Consumer electronics Show (CeS) in las Vegas early this year according to a Jan 7 lg news release Users can control and monitor lgrsquos smart refrigerator washing machine and oven range using smartphones and lg Smart tV even from outside the home

Toasters Roasters Showers Shavers mdash All Gadgets Come Together in the Internet of Things

a

B

C

De

F

G

H

IJ

K

A - Refrigerator that tells you what you are out ofB - Robot vacuum cleaner controllable by smartphoneC - Light bulb and blinds controllable by smartphoneD - Alarm clock that tells the coffee maker to make coffee when you switch off the alarmE - Smartphone and TV that control various appliancesF - Doors that can be opened using smartphone as keys with WiFi-enabled video doorbellG - Temperature and lighting control via smartphonesH - Garden sensor waters your plants remotely via smartphone controlI - Pet feeder feeds pets even when you are away via smartphone controlJ - Bluetooth-enabled toothbrushK - High-tech toilet seat that greets you ldquohellordquo and plays your favorite song

HoW We LIve

8

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

7

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

to ask the robot vacuum cleaner to clean your room the lg HoM-Bot vacuum cleaner also unveiled at the CeS trade show can be remotely scheduled via a smartphone and Wi-fi connection the lg robot vacuum also has a camera that ldquoallows for remote home surveillance via a smartphone and even allows owners to speak to family members at homerdquo it can also be operated from an lg SmarttV

According to the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo although robotic vacuum cleaners have been around for years sales of these and similar household robotsmdashthat perform domestic tasks such as mopping lawn mowing and gutter-cleaningmdashare now growing rapidly by about 15-20 annually ldquoAdoption could accelerate even further by 2025

as these machines become more capable and consumers consider the trade-offs between buying robots sacrificing leisure time or hiring professional cleaners or gardeners to perform these tasksrdquo the report predicts

Wi-Fi doorbell doorlock your phone rings When you answer the call it launches a video chat with your aunt at the front door the Wi-fi-connected video doorbell DoorBot from the California design firm edison Junior connects to mobile devices and lets the user remotely see and chat with the visitors at the front door it will be available next month

So you unlock the door for your aunt by simply pressing a button on your smartphone lockitron a keyless smartphone-controlled door lock developed

by Cameron Robertson and paul gerhardt works even if the internet or power go out and allows consumers to use the original key

Connected pet feeder in the middle of her visit your aunt remembers itrsquos time to feed her puppy at home By tapping a button on her phone the automated feeder at her house dispenses food for her pet After 20 minutes she receives a twitter message saying that her Shih tzu has been fed the wireless feeder pintofeeder invented by Carlos Herrera from California is connected to an app that remotely feeds the pet as well as monitors food intake pintofeeder will also learn about petrsquos typical feeding times and automatically create a schedule to dispense food it can also report how much pets have eaten via text email and facebook message According to the productrsquos website production of the

pintofeeder began in early March and availability in 2013 will be limited

Interactive plant assistant Another app on your auntrsquos phone says that her orchids need watering Koubachi a wi-fi plant sensor that looks like a sawed-off golf club measures soil moisture temperature and light intensity for the potted plant that it is placed alongside it connects to an iphone app to send notifications or e-mail to users if their plant needs watering misting light shade or fertilizer as well as other plant-care advice

Monitoring your health your diet and your exercise regimen After lunch a voice asks how much you have eaten and how much exercise yoursquove already gotten in today But itrsquos not your personal trainer asking itrsquos Autom

your friendly 15-inch-tall robot weight coach sitting in the kitchen that keeps track of your eating and exercise and provides feedback advice and encouragement to keep you motivated to maintain your diet and exercise program According to its website shipping of orders starts this year

findings from studies of Cory Kidd founder of intuitive Automata creator of Autom compared the effects of interacting with a robot versus an animated character on the screen ldquoshowed that people were more engaged by a robot and when they got information from a robot or an animated character consistently found a robot to be more informative and more crediblerdquo according to the company websiteSee whorsquos at the front door and let the in anytime and from anywhere Christiestreet Pintofeeder dispenses food by simply tapping a button in your phone YouTube

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

10

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

9

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

then you check your weight via your Wi-fi-enabled body scale Withings body scale has an online progress-tracking system that monitors your weight heart rate as well as the temperature of the room yoursquore in and that roomrsquos air quality Data is sent from the scale to the Withings app on your smartphone where it can be tracked for your own personal record or to share later with a physician or family members

you decide you need to burn more calories by running so you put on your Armour 39 gear consisting of a chest strap that sends basic performance measurements ndash speed intensity heart rate calories burned and a record of past performances ndash either to your Armour 39 watch or to an ioS app for your iphone to pick up later (According to a february Mashable article about the Armour 39 system its developer American sports clothing manufacturer Under Armour is working on developing touchscreen-capable t-shirts but that product is still years away)

The smart bathroom customizes your experience Meanwhile your brother goes to the bathroom and the toilet seat greets him ldquoHellordquo and plays his favorite Beatles song before he sits on it the Numi toilet Wisconsin-based manufacturer Kohlerrsquos most advanced toilet has a Bluetooth receiver for users to stream audio from their mobile devices an SD card to access custom playlists or personalized welcome messages a USB port for software updates according to an April Mashable article on the latest upgrade to the system

sensors that helps track patientsrsquo medication-taking behavior and monitor how the body is responding to the medicine the information from Digital Medicines could be shared with family members clinicians and other caregivers allowing for better informed treatment decisions these digital medicines can be used in heart failure central nervous system and transplant care

ldquoAs a result you could tell if yoursquore taking your medicines as prescribed while at the same time receiving unprecedented feedback on your physiological response to treatment this offers a path to improved healthrdquo said the company ldquoCurrently over 50 of people donrsquot get full benefit from the pharmaceuticals they use because they take the wrong dose or have trouble consistently following their prescriptionsrdquo it noted

Users can change colors of Philips Hue bulbs using mobile device YouTubeAutom is a friendly robot that helps you diet Intuitive Automata

from the toilet he can move to the sink where his smart Beam Brush ndash the worldrsquos first smart toothbrush ndash tracks his brushing habits and reports them to a smartphone app or directly to his dentist Apart from that the toothbrush will inform you when itrsquos time to replace the head and even let you order new ones directly from your phone

Digital pills monitor your treatment Meanwhile your aunt receives a call from her doctor reminding her to take her heart medication the doctor will know if your aunt is taking medication as prescribed and as scheduled through a pill with tiny sensors and transmitters that your aunt swallowed

According to the website of California-based company proteus Digital Health the company is working to create digital medicines or ingestible

According to the aforementioned McKinsey report internet of things technology can have a direct impact on human lives and health for example it says doctors now perform ldquocapsule endoscopyrdquo using a pill-shaped micro-camera with wireless data communication capabilities that travels through a patientrsquos digestive system and transmits images to a computer sensors that read the vital signs of patients at home

Changing hue on cue At the end of your eventful day you enter the bedroom and the lights automatically turn themselves on through your smartphone you adjust the color to vibrant blue white Before long the light flashes indicating that itrsquos time for you to sleep

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

12

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

11

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

you gotta see this

99 bottles of beer on the wall 99 bottles IS the wall In a June 28 dispatch the Seattle Washington-based environment news and commentary site Grist called our attention to a Buddhist temple complex built from recycled beer bottles as r eported in a feature in the United Kingdom-based Telegraph

According to the Telegraph feature the complex called Wat Lan Kuad (ldquoThe Temple of a Million Bottlesrdquo) in Thailandrsquos Sisaket province near the border with Cambodia actually uses 15 million green Heineken and brown Chang bottles in constituting the main temple a crematorium

prayer rooms a hall water tower tourist bathrooms and monksrsquo quarters consisting of several small bungalows raised off the ground along with mosaics of Buddha created with recycled bottle caps

To be sure the complex is not just bottles as the buildings do have a concrete core wersquore reminded but the point shouldnrsquot be lost on us that there might be something we can do with all our San Miguel beer bottles after wersquove drained them thoroughly And perhaps we can add our Ginebra San Miguel and Tanduay Rhum bottles to the mix (which should come up to a good number given that the Philippines is reportedly the worldrsquos biggest consumer of gin and its third-largest consumer of rum per this recent infographic from The Economist)

The sprawling art of one acrylic pen Christopher Jobsonrsquos Colossal blog which deals primarily with matters of non-digital art and visual ingenuity calls our attention to Japanese acrylic-pen artist Manabu Ikeda in his June 27 entry ldquoMaster of Pen and Ink The Monumental Drawings of Manabu Ikedardquo

He describes Ikedarsquos method as follows ldquo(A) blank paper canvas larger than a person spread before him a small acrylic pen in his hand and hundreds of days to fill with faintly imperceptible progress from a mind brimming with explosive creativity hellip works in areas measuring roughly 4Prime square spending eight hours a day often for years on a single drawing that can eventually dominate an entire wall hellip complete visual cacophony that somehow results in a single cohesive image The most unbelievable aspect being that Ikeda has no idea what the final artwork will look like but instead explores each work organically from day to day as he progresses inch by inchrdquo

The blog entry includes samples of and details from some of his work including the dimensions of the original works some of which measure 3rsquo x 4rsquo 65rsquo x 65rsquo or 6rsquo x 11rsquo

Wat Lan Kuad the temple that Chang (and Heineken)

Photo credit to Mark Fischer and Gristorg

A detail from Manabu Ikedarsquos 6rsquo x 11rsquo Foretoken

Image credit to Manabu Ikeda and Colossal

philipsrsquo smart light bulb Hue is a web-enabled leD home lighting system that when used with a mobile app lets the users control the color and brightness of lights in their homes it allows you to switch lights on and off remotely set timers and create or change mood lighting

According to the Hue website Hue lights can automatically turn on or change settings as you arrive home or turn everything off when you leave using smartphonersquos gpS or geofencing technology you can also have your lights flash at a specific time with its alarm tool With the timer function hue can turn the lights off flash or change color after a set amount of time ldquoSo you can time your workout with light have your lights flash when your favorite show is about to start or even shine bright pink to let you know when the cupcakes are ready itrsquos also great for telling the kids that playtime is up and itrsquos time for bedrdquo

Also philips employs a service that connects hue lights to over 60 different products and services With Hue you can ldquochange your lightrsquos color to let you know when itrsquos raining outside blink your lights when your favorite sports team starts a new game Randomly change your lightrsquos color with a text message rdquo

Confidentiality security of information still concerns the Sept 2012 white paper ldquoWhat the internet of things (iot) Needs to Become a Realityrdquo highlights the importance of safeguarding the information obtained by iot services and creating mechanisms to ensure confidentiality of information exchanged However the report by American embedded hardware producer freescale and British software design company ARM admits ldquothis is a tough balancing act as there are a whole host of iot-related services designed to leverage data mining

and generate push services the lsquoopt outrsquo mechanism for such services would be subject to the governance of the iotrdquo

in a Nov 2012 blog posted on CNN John Horn the president of RACo Wireless a provider of wireless data solutions for the Machine-to-Machine (M2M) industry talks about threats to the growth of M2M technology which allows machines to exchange information Horn said although the M2M technology (another term for iot) already exists it doesnrsquot invade every aspect of our business and daily lives yet because of two factors long development periods and adoption of 4g connectivity

ldquoMany enterprise M2M solutions require months if not years and a significant financial commitment to get to deployment With those daunting hurdles facing many technology decision makers and despite an average return on investment at around 40 companies are deferring their M2M strategiesrdquo explains Horn He stresses ldquoWe need to get to a point where implementing an M2M strategy involves a matter of hours or days instead of months and yearsrdquo

the shift in the mobile industry towards 3g and 4g networks is another hurdle As Horn observes command-and-control communication links typically need to carry and transmit only a few kilobytes of data for any given node unless high-resolution image processing or video data is involved ldquoAs mobile carriers negotiate with limited spectrum to support 4g rollouts 2g networks are often sacrificed the problem created is that M2M applications not only lose support but they face significant expenses to enter into a 3g or 4g system where their data usage does not come close to justifying the costs not to mention the significant capital investment required for a pricey 3g or 4g compatible devicerdquo he explains

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

Wired into the World Wide Web

247 connectivity is coming for both people and devices

STraTeGY PoINTSA McKinsey Global Institute report says there are about 25 billion people and 9 billion devices currently connected to the Internet and predicts that 2-3 billion more people will have Internet access by 2025

Being connected 247 will be the norm in 2020 and a prerequisite for participation in society a Booz amp Co report finds

Challenges include securing private data and building the digital infrastructure to support the growing number of Internet users

At 730 AM Monday John checks his smartphone for instant messages from his girlfriend in Switzerland Still on his

phone he uploads pictures from his beach trip with friends over the weekend to his social networking account After showering and getting dressed his glasses flash a reminder about his 11 AM meeting with the boss while John is sipping his coffee

it is already 845 AM according to his smart watch which also brings John the latest news of the day He hurries to do some last-minute tweaking of his presentation on his notebook plugging in figures from a marketing report he accessed through his desktop computer As he heads out the door he shuts down the coffee maker stereo and desktop computer with just his voice

today there are about 25 billion people and more than 9 billion devices around the world that are connected to the internet with another 2-3 billion more people set to gain access to the internet by 2025 predicts a McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

As the number of people with Web access is expected to grow to over 5 billion in just over a decade itrsquos the concept of the mobile internet one of the disruptive technologies discussed in the report that will affect how these 5 billion people go about their lives ldquogiving them tools to become potential innovators or entrepreneursrdquo

entire industries will be influenced by Generation C today many like John already live in a hyper-connected world as more and more people and gadgets are being connected seamlessly through the internet Social interactions business meetings educational instruction medical consultations international trade banking shopping and other services can now be done online By 2020 being connected will be the norm and a prerequisite for participation in societymdashat least as far as Booz amp Co is concerned

According to the companyrsquos ldquoRise of generation C implications for the World in 2020rdquo report by the year 2020 an entire generation will have grown up in a primarily digital world Computers the internet mobile devices and social networking sites will become second nature to them By then they will constitute the largest group of consumers worldwide As such entire industries will be influenced by these constantly connected content-centric and community-oriented individuals More importantly internet connectivity bridges the digital divide particularly for the developing world where disparities among urban and rural areas are more pronounced According to the United Nations Conference on trade and Development (UNCtAD) March report on ldquointernet broadband for an inclusive digital societyrdquo broadband connections can impact economic development education healthcare social and cultural enrichment and political engagement

14

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

13

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

By Marishka Noelle M Cabrera

HoW We CoNNeCT

Moments are captured through a first-person perspective with the use of Google Glass

Google Glass

16

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

15

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Bringing the Internet to remote parts of the developing world on his way to work John contacts a farmer in Vietnam who will supply raw materials this farmer was able to get in touch with Johnrsquos company because he was alerted through an app on his smartphone about potential markets for his crops And because he was able to double his farmrsquos yield with the help of online video lectures he will be able to meet the demand

the McKinsey report says more than 35 billion citizens in developing economies are expected to have access to the internet in 2025 Moreover it will be possible for entrepreneurs in developing economies to compete globally in online commerce while global players will have a new channel to access fast-growing markets

Project Loon to leapfrog over fiber-optic cables A June 15 Agence france-presse report says google has revealed plans to send balloons to the edge of space with the aim of bringing the internet to the two-thirds of the world population without Web access Scientists from google released up to 30 helium-filled test balloons flying 20 kilometers above Christchurch in New Zealand with antennae linked to ground-based stations in an experimental project named project loon these balloons can beam internet access to the ground at speeds similar to 3g networks or faster if successful the technology might allow countries to leapfrog the expense of installing fiber-optic cables

ldquoit works by ground stations connecting to the local internet infrastructure and beaming signals to the balloons which are self-powered by solar panelsrdquo the report explains ldquothe balloons which once in the stratosphere will be twice as high as commercial

airliners and barely visible to the naked eye are then able to communicate with each other forming a mesh network in the sky Users below have an internet antennae they attach the side of their house which can send and receive data signals from the balloons passing overheadrdquo

According to an earlier Wall Street Journal report google is said to be ldquodeep in a multipronged effort to build and help run wireless networks in emerging markets as part of a plan to connect a billion or more new people to the internetrdquo the tech giant plans to team up with local telecommunications firms from emerging markets to develop the networks as well as the business models to support them

Mobile Internet availability fuels the growth of mobile devices With the increase in internet connectivity the mobile computing industry continues to grow along with other tech innovations such as wearable devices ldquoUbiquitous connectivity and an explosive proliferation of apps are enabling users to go about their daily routines with new ways of knowing perceiving and even interacting with the physical worldrdquo the McKinsey amp Company report says

Wearable computing devices are described in a July 1 piece in Mashable as products aimed ldquoto record our

interactions with the world and then turn that data into something easily understood giving us insights in how we might change our behavior for the betterrdquo Nowadays technological progress has enabled these gadgets to have small cheap sensors that connect to a smartphone or tablet and use ldquothe phonersquos data connection as its path to the cloud where most data processing takes placerdquo google glass is an example of a wearable device with an optical head-mounted display (oHMD) it functions like a smartphone or tabletmdashit receives and sends messages takes photos and videos gives directions and allows users to share and retrieve information over the internetmdashbut is controlled mainly by voice command

tech giants Samsung and Apple are reported to be creating their own hands-free devices says a May 6 article in technology review site teck Comes first Apple Bloomberg says in a february report

has a team of about 100 product designers working on a ldquowristwatch-like device that may perform some of the tasks now handled by the iphone and ipadrdquo Chief executive officer tim Cook is said to be facing pressure from investors amid slowing sales growth and competition from rivals such as Samsung which a new revolutionary gadget could address Nike and health tech firm fitbit are already offering wearable machines for tracking fitness

Bloomberg says the introduction of wearable computing devices may signal a new direction for the consumer electronics industry similar to what the ipad did for the tablet market

Cloud technology and the Internet of things bring services and objects to the connected world Cloud technology can deliver any computer application or service over a network or the internet with minimal local software or processing power required in essence cloud computing involves storing and accessing data and programs over the internet instead of onersquos hard drive as described in a March 13 article in pC Mag ldquoWith an online connection cloud computing can be done anywhere anytimerdquo it says

the McKinsey report adds ldquothe cloud is enabling the explosive growth of internet-based services from search to streaming media to offline storage of personal data (photos books music) as well as the background processing capabilities that enable mobile internet devices to do things like respond to spoken commands to ask for directionsrdquo

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

everyday objects are being equipped with networked sensors and actuators bringing them to the connected world the internet of things is another technology mentioned in the McKinsey report that can impact people business society government and health in a big way this enables machinery shipments infrastructure and devices ldquoto monitor their environment report their status receive instructions and even take action based on the information they receiverdquo

tech expert Jonathan Strickland explains in a video from How Stuff Works how the internet of things can impact the way we live by walking us through the living room of the future He describes how sensors are taking information from real physical objects and uploading it to the internet ldquoitrsquos a world where your environment transforms as you walk through it because technology that you may not even be aware of is monitoring your every moverdquo he says the video shows how objects in

The Industrial revolution meets the Information agePerhaps itrsquos fitting that one of the 20th-century giants of the Industrial Revolution figure a new path to tread in the 21st century

In November 2012 General Electric (GE) announced that the world was ldquoon the threshold of a new era of innovation and change with the rise of the Industrial Internetrdquo a term it coined in a report by Peter C Evans GErsquos director of global strategy and analytics and Marco Annunziata GErsquos chief economist The report it said discusses ldquothe convergence of the global industrial system with the power of advanced computing analytics low-cost sensing and new levels of connectivity permitted by the Internetrdquo

A separate report in the Massachusetts Institute of Technologyrsquos MIT Technology Review also in November 2012 broke down GErsquos vision of the Industrial Internet thusly ldquoThe term coined inside GErsquos RampD division reflects the companyrsquos hope that adding more sensors to machinery will result in a deluge of data that will in turn let companies squeeze more efficiency out of locomotives jet engines MRI machines and other equipment GE sellsrdquo

According to the report GE is set to invest $15 billion in the idea over a three-year period looking at ways for example to sift through all the data to predict when GErsquos jet engines in service will need maintenance And in December 2012 it put some more money where its mouth was with GE Aviation and Accenture announcing the formation of Taleris a joint venture providing airlines and cargo carriers around the world with ldquointelligent operations services focused on improving efficiency by leveraging aircraft performance data prognostics recovery and planning optimization solutionsrdquo

But aviation is not the only area where GE sees potential in marrying machines to analytics and connectivity ldquoThese innovations promise to bring greater speed and efficiency to industries as diverse as aviation rail transportation power generation oil and gas development and health care deliveryrdquo Evans and Annunziata predict in their aforementioned report as summed up in the GE announcement

And the potential appears to be enormous The Industrial Internet according to Evans and Annunziata has the potential to boost average incomes in the United States by 25 to 40 over the next 20 years and to lift growth back to levels not seen since the late 1990s And If the rest of the world achieved just half of the US productivity gains the Industrial Internet could add from $10 to $15 trillion to global GDP ndash the size of todayrsquos US economy ndash over the same period the authors predicted

We will live in a world blanketed by sensors with objects that react to us tell us what we need and customize the environment around us Source How Stuff Works

the room can automatically identify you and tap into a cloud-based profile of your preferences such as room temperature music and lighting the room also knows whether you had a stressful day based on the

calendar app of your phone or the biosensors that detect heart rate and blood pressure

Challenges of being constantly connected Nevertheless the digital infrastructure must be able to support the growing number of devices accessing the internet today cellular networks such as 3g and 4g and Wi-fi are being used in homes offices and public spaces the McKinsey report predicts that over the coming decade 5g cellular networks satellite services and possibly long-range Wi-fi could become the next network advances ldquothese technologies will need to fight for increasingly scarce wireless frequencies but new approaches to dynamically sharing spectrum such as software-defined radios could help ease the crunchrdquo it notes

Meanwhile a June 21 piece in the Harvard Business Review Blog Network raises security concerns over the internet of things it notes ldquoparadoxically the

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

The long road to FacebookAs social media takes hold of the Information Age and sends us hurtling toward moving past bouncing off and occasionally colliding with all sorts of information at warp speed the very idea of a history of social media seems quaint and even dated And yet we are reminded now and then that in order to know to where we are going we need to know from where we came

Canadian journalist and blogger Cendrine Marrouat with some help from Karim Benyagoub provides us with a brief if unofficial history of social media as summed up in a neat infographic that takes us from the origins of the Internet (as Arpanet) in 1969 to its 24-billion population of users by 2012 including milestones and stopovers along the way that a new generation might have been too young to remember (eg the first e-mail was sent in 1971 a company called ICQ was doing instant messaging before AOL Google or Yahoo and Hotmail one of the first web-based commercial e-mail services was taken over by Microsoft in 1997 a year after it was set up by Sabeer Bhatia and Jack Smith as we recall) Image credit Karim Benyagoub and Cendrine Marrouat

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very principle that makes the [internet of things] so powerful mdash the potential to share data instantly with everyone and everything (every authorized entity that is) mdash creates a huge cybersecurity threatrdquo it will allow data to be shared more widely than ever and in real time

protecting your privacy will be a challenge Since information is shared or stored on a variety of devices it will be hard to keep track of what kind of data is being made available to the public imagine your wearable device for instance sending out information about your location the person you are with which items you bought your health and fitness levels and the like taken together these mobile devices coupled with the internet of things have the potential to build a treasure trove of data about you

without you even knowing it

And then therersquos the psychological cost of being constantly connected in her teD talk in february 2012 Sherry turkle Massachusetts

institute of technology (Mit) professor and director of the Mit initiative on technology and Self argues that ldquothose little deviceshellipare so psychologically powerful that they donrsquot only change what we do they change who we arerdquo She talks about how being constantly connected and attached to our devices can get in the way of us understanding one another and ourselves

in many ways technologies that allow us to build a network of connections in our daily lives have transformed the world for the better And yet these virtual connections can only make sense if real-life relationships are not substituted but cultivated

Sherry Turkle professor at MIT talks about how technology and the need to be connected also has the potential to make us feel more alone

supergraphicWIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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The Age of Autonomy Is Coming Soon to a Highway Near You

After the advent of driverless cars will we be ready for pilotless planesBy Victoria Fritz

STRATEGY POINTS

Driverless cars are coming soon and people are looking forward to it according to at least one global survey

Unmanned passenger planes are also on the drawing board and the testing ground

Ghost drivers on the horizon

the age of autonomous transportation is dawning featuring vehicles that can maneuver with reduced or even no human intervention as identified in the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the technology for driverless vehicles is already available or at least fast developing googlersquos driverless cars have logged over 300000 miles since 2010 without accidents (one accident in 2011 occurred when someone was driving) according to a May 13 article posted on the United States-based public Broadcasting Service (pBS) site

While googlersquos cars rack up the mileage BMW toyota and general Motors continue developing their own models Across the Atlantic in Spain Volvo upped googlersquos feat by queuing three cars behind a lorry for 200 kilometers on a busy highway as reported in Forbes in May 2012 in a practice called road-training ie making a train from queued cars)

The promised benefits of driverless technology Driverless technology offers many benefits not the least of which would be increased safety the majority of road accidents collectively responsible for over a million deaths a year according to World Bank figures are caused by human error Up to 90 of road accidents can be attributed to human error as reported in April 2011 on alertdrivingcom Removing man from the equation would theoretically reduce the number of road accidents significantly saving anywhere from 30000 to 150000 lives a year according to the McKinsey report

A special report on driverless cars ldquolook no handsrdquo in the April 20 edition of The Economist

cites decreased congestion as another benefit in a demonstration Volvo packed autonomous cars together in ldquoroad trainsrdquo this increases road capacity while easing traffic Road trains also create an aerodynamic effect that increases fuel efficiency which leads to a reduction in Co2 emissions A 1995 study by the University of Southern California showed that it could improve fuel efficiency by up to 30

freeing up the time allotted for driving also means more time for work or leisure increasing human productivity people can now start working even while on their way to the office What would that do to the official eight-hour workday

According to the McKinsey report the likely major impediments to a quick adoption of this new technology are creating the necessary regulatory frameworks and gaining public support

reducing one risk but begetting others the pBS article examined certain concerns faced by the driverless vehicle concept While it decreases one danger (by reducing or eliminating human error) it presents another ndash the possibility of computer error especially at high speeds At present car sensors are not able to cope with extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain or snow-covered streets

less obvious visual cues such as a construction project could be lost on a driverless vehicle Judgment calls such as when to go at a four-way stop could be tricky for such cars

An April 13 blog post on the Harvard law School communityrsquos discussion site City law discusses the legal aspects of driverless cars So far Nevada California and florida are the only states that have passed laws addressing automated vehicles With its onset driving licensure laws would need an overhaul

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

HoW We TraveL

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the traffic safety governing body would need to promulgate new standards to address the technology and software it poses questions if a self-driving car hits a pedestrian who is liable

Carmakers already working on driverless cars Despite the lack of a regulatory framework according to the McKinsey report the following large carmakers are already developing their own versions general Motors toyota Mercedes-Benz Audi BMW and Volvo

Machine vision is a key capability in achieving vehicle autonomy with other systems working in tandem (for a quick review of the technologies involved refer to ldquothe Car of the future A thinking green Machinerdquo in the March 26 2012 issue of The CenSEI Report)

Costs prohibitive now but coming down drastically later Chunka Mui a contributor at Forbes magazine analyzed the obstacles to public acceptance of the driverless car in a January 2013 piece He listed cost as prohibitive at present saying estimated cost of each google driverless car is more than US$300000 However using the trajectory of the cost of a gigabyte of memory as an analogue ndash in 1981 a gigabyte cost US$300000 going down to US$10000 a decade later and then down to US$10 another 10 years later and now it costs less than 10 cents ndash he predicts that driverless technology will see the same drastic reduction in cost

Mui also looked into the question of public adoption people will be reluctant to let go of the steering wheel But he believes that once society sees the benefits people will come to trust the technology

Public trust still lacking An April 20 Christian Science Monitor blog post by Richard Read also encouraged people in the know to talk

with others about the driverless car in order to speed up development Read was recounting tips given during the Society of Automotive engineersrsquo World Congress in Detroit Michigan that week participants agreed the technology is already here but also identified the main impediment as lack of public trust first people need to become aware of autonomous vehicles Second they need to be convinced of their reliability

to get a better idea of the public pulse on this matter Cisco conducted a survey earlier this year and published its results in May on gigaomcom the global survey had 1514 respondents aged 18 and older of the total number surveyed across the globe 57 said they would ride a driverless car as reported by Kevin fitchard in his May 14 blog post in gigaoM discussing the Cisco survey

Countries however varied widely in their respective national responses Brazil topped the charts with a 95 approval rating followed by india and China Japan was a low 28 likewise western european countries were lukewarm in the United States where many prototypes of driverless technology are being tested the approval rating was 60 above the global average

fitchard himself acknowledged unwllingness to give up total control of the car saying he was more comfortable with some autonomy

CISCo GLoBaL SUrveYPUBLIC aCCePTaNCe oF DrIverLeSS CarS

Table from ldquoCisco survey Consumers are getting comfortable with the idea of the driverless carrdquo Kevin Fitchard as posted on GigaoM May 14 2013

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

CAPTION YouTube

He also questioned the veracity of an industry-sponsored survey saying that Cisco even though it wasnrsquot general Motors or google still had a stake in the matter But his observation of the generally thorough nature of Cisco surveys put his own doubts to rest

When will the future arrive there is some discussion as to when this new technology will be available to the mass market the panel at SAe sees this happening in 2025 according to a Wall Street Journal April 17 online article general Motors was reported as predicting the public debut of driverless cars in 2020 as reported in the aforementioned issue of The CenSEI Report google makes the boldest prediction and is hoping to offer this technology to the public by 2018

Ghost pilots in the sky

Whenever the driverless car gets here do you think yoursquoll be ready for airplanes that pilot themselves

A team at the Massachusetts institute of technology have developed an autonomous robotic plane capable of flying indoors without aid of a remote control device this could contribute significantly to the development of an pilotless passenger airplane Click on the image below for a video of the autonomous robotic plane in action

Getting a charge from driving

Autonomous or automatic to be more accurate charging is another way of increasing efficiency on the road Ever since electric vehicles debuted on the market the main obstacle has always been the battery ndash the cost the size the storage capacity Engineers are now working on solving that problem by creating an automatic charging system that is one built into the road Back in 2010 this system was launched in London as discussed in an article on Englandrsquos autocar website The system design is shown in the following graphic

An article appearing in the BBCrsquos Future section in March 2012 also mentions this ldquowireless highwayrdquo as a way to address electric car motoristsrsquo range anxiety (fear of losing power on the road) More recently on June 18 Business Insider ran an article that mentions Volvorsquos own project in partnership with Swedish power company Alstom to create a road that charges vehicles as they drive over it

1 - Power

2 - Transmitter

4 - Receiver Pad

5 - System

6 - Battery

3 - Wireless Electricity amp Data

Flying by the numbersWhen commercial flying was first introduced people took a long time to get over their fear of flying When they realized it was relatively safe they hopped on planes in droves Would people be willing to ride a pilotless plane as well

A November 2012 piece in The Economist looked into the possibility of pilotless aircraft taking off even before driverless cars and conducted its own survey on whether its readers thought pilot-less aircraft would take off before driverless cars This writerrsquos own misgivings notwithstanding the survey results indicate that an overwhelming 70 of respondents believe the pilotless plane will happen even before the driverless car

Most of the required technology such as autopilot or self-landing is already there the Economist piece observed The afore-mentioned ASTRAEA tests are about ascertaining whether these capabilities can be achieved without a pilot in the cockpit and in compliance with existing rules of air travel

you voted NoTotal votes 8486

Voting opened on Nov 23rd 2012

Graphic from The Economist poll ldquoWill pilotless airplanes takeoff before driverless carsrdquo generated from writerrsquos own participation in survey

in June this year a trial on pilotless passenger airplanes was conducted in the United Kingdom as reported on the site of The Engineer magazine the age of unmanned aircraft is drawing near the report declared qualifying that this was apart from already present military drones and remotely operated miniature vehicles British engineers announced that an adapted conventional

Jetstream passenger plane flew 500 miles without aid of a human operator under the aegis of AStRAeA the UKrsquos cross-industry project to develop technology and regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or systems (UAS) the report consisted of an interview where experts spoke at length about this new technologyrsquos issues

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

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POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

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Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

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rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

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rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

  1. Button 31
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    18. Page 2017 Off
      1. Button 32
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                            1. Page 21 Off
Page 2: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

4

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

A Future Divined mdash With a Little Help from Our Friends Divining the future of everyday life in the coming decades of dizzyingly rapid change is never easy Especially with disruptive technologies radically recasting traditional and even cutting-edge ways of living life doing work shaping thoughts making connections and a host of other core human activities You ainrsquot seen nothing yet mdash thatrsquos for sure Or even imagined about how life will change

What makes the formidable challenge of researching and anticipating the shape of life to come a little less daunting is a little help from some techie friends One is the 21st-century researcherrsquos indispensable Swiss Army knife online search engines Indeed without the breath-taking rapidity of algorithms sifting through millions of materials online in nanoseconds The CenSEI Report would be a quarterly or half-yearly publication instead of a fortnightly

The eight major articles in this issue and the next discuss technologyrsquos impending impact on how we live and work think and connect travel and trade get well and power up Even more than usual the stories are packed with The CenSEI Reportrsquos online references and links from the seminal McKinsey amp Co study on disruptive technologies and their impact on business to the Asian Development Bankrsquos 2013 report highlighting the regionrsquos burgeoning energy needs and what must be done to keep the lights on the appliances working the factories humming and the connections well connected

If some of the information and insights cited and linked seem to be at odds with one another thatrsquos an indispensable part of how The CenSEI Report analyses and researches every subject Nearly every issue is never cut and dried black and white mdash most especially the hazy directions of life in the future Technology and how humanity uses it will always have good and bad results and we must reflect that in our articles For that full and unbiased perspective we thank our online friends and their inevitable discord and dissonances on the big questions tackled by The CenSEI Report

In its first installment the Special Report covers the impact of future tech on very basic aspects of everyday life living athome connecting with others moving about and harnessing light heat and power Most people would probably race to see the gadgetry in the kitchens and bathrooms in cellphones and tablets and on the road and the runway But really little of them would be running if not for the abundance availability and affordability of energy

The second and final part of the disruptive technologies report will cover more complex aspects of human affairs thinkingand learning manufacturing and medicine with an eighth article on how all the preceding seven would change the way we do business So buckle up for the dazzling ride to tomorrow free to debate every turn with the drivers

perspective

Go signal for same-sex marriage in California courtesy of the US Supreme CourtOn June 26 the United Statesrsquo Supreme Court struck down the federal Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) as unconstitutional and let stand a California lower court ruling allowing same-sex couples to marry in apparent challenge to Californiarsquos Proposition 8 initiative which banned same-sex marriage effectively allowing same-sex marriages in that state per a New York Times report

According to the report the unconstitutionality of DOMA refers primarily to its failure to extend equal protection under the law to same-sex couples as it does to heterosexual couples not to the constitutionality of same-sex marriages per se so the ruling doesnrsquot affect existing state laws banning same-sex marriages At the same time the Supreme Court declined to hear the case of the California lower court ruling saying that

California officials declined to appeal the lower court ruling against them but the proponents of Proposition 8 were not entitled to appeal the decision on behalf of the state which lets stand the challenge to Proposition 8 pending further legal action

The rulings drew an assortment of reactions from various sources ldquo(M)arriage

was created by the hand of God No man

not even a Supreme Court can undo what a

holy God has institutedrdquo

ndash Rep Michele Bachmann Republican congresswoman from Minnesota as quoted

in POLITICO on June 26

ldquoTodayrsquos ruling opens the door for

inevitable intolerance towards people of faith

who repudiate bigotry defend the image of God in all human beings and also believe that

marriage is a sacred union defined by Himrdquo

ndash Rev Samuel Rodriguez California pastor and president of the National

Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference as quoted in

The Christian Post on June 27

ldquo hellip Jesus himself only said

one thing about marriage which is that you canrsquot divorce

hellip And we live in a country were countless people are divorced and that doesnrsquot seem to threaten the religious liberty of Catholics and itrsquos as fundamental an issue hellip So if

Catholics can live with religious liberty with divorced people they should be

perfectly able to live with gay people I mean as married as a civil

marriagerdquo

ndash Gay commentator Andrew Sullivan as quoted in The

Raw Story on June 30

ldquoIf DOMA is unconstitutional that

means the Constitution is gay Of course no real

shocker It was written by a bunch of dudes in wigs and tights in the city of brotherly

loverdquo

ndash Stephen Colbert host of Comedy Centralrsquos The Colbert Report as quoted in The Hollywood

Reporter on June 26

Editorsrsquo Note Due to late publication issue date is adjusted to July 15-28 2013 Subscription periods will be extended accordingly

6

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

5

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Devices get connected and mobile apps will allow us to access and control themBy Pia Rufino

STRATEGY POINTSA report predicts there will be 25 billion devices connected to the Internet by 2015 50 billion by 2020

More apps are helping people monitor their health and control remote devices from their smartphones and tablets

Long development periods and adoption of 4G connectivity are barriers to machine-to-machine technology growth says experts

Itrsquos Sunday and itrsquos your turn to prepare the weekly family lunch your smartphone informs you that you have chicken carrots and potatoes inside your refrigerator and

recommends that you roast a chicken Roast chicken sounds good to you so the refrigerator sends a roast chicken recipe to the oven which then automatically preheats to the appropriate temperature

Meanwhile through another phone app your refrigerator says yoursquore running out of eggs and that the milk has crossed the expiration date so you have it do the online shopping While putting the chicken in the oven you remember that the washing machine is on so you ask your brother who is watching his

in an April 2011 paper ldquothe internet of things (iot) How the Next evolution of the internet is changing everythingrdquo Ciscorsquos internet Business Solutions group (iBSg) reported that as of 2010 there were about 125 billion objects connected to the internet more than the world population of 68 billion making 2010 the starting point for Ciscorsquos internet of things Dave evans Ciscorsquos chief futurist and author of the paper predicts that there will be 25 billion devices connected to the internet by 2015 and 50 billion by 2020

in a May 7 blog posted on the Harvard Business Review software development expert Stefan ferber says the internet of things reflects a

dramatic development in the internetrsquos evolution enabling communication among physical objects By 2015 6 billion devices will have access to the internet according to estimates by Bosch Software innovations in germany where ferber is the director for the Business Development of the internet of things and Services ldquothe fact that there will be a global system of interconnected computer networks sensors actuators and devices all using the internet protocol holds so much potential to change our lives that it is often referred to as the internetrsquos next generationrdquo he writes

Household robots getting back to your everyday life from the kitchen you use your phone

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

favorite basketball team to check if a cycle has been completed since the tVrsquos already on

Although this sounds like a fanciful futuristic fable these connected appliances already exist South Korean electronics company lg introduced this line of smart appliances with advanced features that requires wireless internet connection ldquooffering enhanced connectivity and greater user conveniencerdquo at the international Consumer electronics Show (CeS) in las Vegas early this year according to a Jan 7 lg news release Users can control and monitor lgrsquos smart refrigerator washing machine and oven range using smartphones and lg Smart tV even from outside the home

Toasters Roasters Showers Shavers mdash All Gadgets Come Together in the Internet of Things

a

B

C

De

F

G

H

IJ

K

A - Refrigerator that tells you what you are out ofB - Robot vacuum cleaner controllable by smartphoneC - Light bulb and blinds controllable by smartphoneD - Alarm clock that tells the coffee maker to make coffee when you switch off the alarmE - Smartphone and TV that control various appliancesF - Doors that can be opened using smartphone as keys with WiFi-enabled video doorbellG - Temperature and lighting control via smartphonesH - Garden sensor waters your plants remotely via smartphone controlI - Pet feeder feeds pets even when you are away via smartphone controlJ - Bluetooth-enabled toothbrushK - High-tech toilet seat that greets you ldquohellordquo and plays your favorite song

HoW We LIve

8

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

7

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

to ask the robot vacuum cleaner to clean your room the lg HoM-Bot vacuum cleaner also unveiled at the CeS trade show can be remotely scheduled via a smartphone and Wi-fi connection the lg robot vacuum also has a camera that ldquoallows for remote home surveillance via a smartphone and even allows owners to speak to family members at homerdquo it can also be operated from an lg SmarttV

According to the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo although robotic vacuum cleaners have been around for years sales of these and similar household robotsmdashthat perform domestic tasks such as mopping lawn mowing and gutter-cleaningmdashare now growing rapidly by about 15-20 annually ldquoAdoption could accelerate even further by 2025

as these machines become more capable and consumers consider the trade-offs between buying robots sacrificing leisure time or hiring professional cleaners or gardeners to perform these tasksrdquo the report predicts

Wi-Fi doorbell doorlock your phone rings When you answer the call it launches a video chat with your aunt at the front door the Wi-fi-connected video doorbell DoorBot from the California design firm edison Junior connects to mobile devices and lets the user remotely see and chat with the visitors at the front door it will be available next month

So you unlock the door for your aunt by simply pressing a button on your smartphone lockitron a keyless smartphone-controlled door lock developed

by Cameron Robertson and paul gerhardt works even if the internet or power go out and allows consumers to use the original key

Connected pet feeder in the middle of her visit your aunt remembers itrsquos time to feed her puppy at home By tapping a button on her phone the automated feeder at her house dispenses food for her pet After 20 minutes she receives a twitter message saying that her Shih tzu has been fed the wireless feeder pintofeeder invented by Carlos Herrera from California is connected to an app that remotely feeds the pet as well as monitors food intake pintofeeder will also learn about petrsquos typical feeding times and automatically create a schedule to dispense food it can also report how much pets have eaten via text email and facebook message According to the productrsquos website production of the

pintofeeder began in early March and availability in 2013 will be limited

Interactive plant assistant Another app on your auntrsquos phone says that her orchids need watering Koubachi a wi-fi plant sensor that looks like a sawed-off golf club measures soil moisture temperature and light intensity for the potted plant that it is placed alongside it connects to an iphone app to send notifications or e-mail to users if their plant needs watering misting light shade or fertilizer as well as other plant-care advice

Monitoring your health your diet and your exercise regimen After lunch a voice asks how much you have eaten and how much exercise yoursquove already gotten in today But itrsquos not your personal trainer asking itrsquos Autom

your friendly 15-inch-tall robot weight coach sitting in the kitchen that keeps track of your eating and exercise and provides feedback advice and encouragement to keep you motivated to maintain your diet and exercise program According to its website shipping of orders starts this year

findings from studies of Cory Kidd founder of intuitive Automata creator of Autom compared the effects of interacting with a robot versus an animated character on the screen ldquoshowed that people were more engaged by a robot and when they got information from a robot or an animated character consistently found a robot to be more informative and more crediblerdquo according to the company websiteSee whorsquos at the front door and let the in anytime and from anywhere Christiestreet Pintofeeder dispenses food by simply tapping a button in your phone YouTube

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

10

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

9

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

then you check your weight via your Wi-fi-enabled body scale Withings body scale has an online progress-tracking system that monitors your weight heart rate as well as the temperature of the room yoursquore in and that roomrsquos air quality Data is sent from the scale to the Withings app on your smartphone where it can be tracked for your own personal record or to share later with a physician or family members

you decide you need to burn more calories by running so you put on your Armour 39 gear consisting of a chest strap that sends basic performance measurements ndash speed intensity heart rate calories burned and a record of past performances ndash either to your Armour 39 watch or to an ioS app for your iphone to pick up later (According to a february Mashable article about the Armour 39 system its developer American sports clothing manufacturer Under Armour is working on developing touchscreen-capable t-shirts but that product is still years away)

The smart bathroom customizes your experience Meanwhile your brother goes to the bathroom and the toilet seat greets him ldquoHellordquo and plays his favorite Beatles song before he sits on it the Numi toilet Wisconsin-based manufacturer Kohlerrsquos most advanced toilet has a Bluetooth receiver for users to stream audio from their mobile devices an SD card to access custom playlists or personalized welcome messages a USB port for software updates according to an April Mashable article on the latest upgrade to the system

sensors that helps track patientsrsquo medication-taking behavior and monitor how the body is responding to the medicine the information from Digital Medicines could be shared with family members clinicians and other caregivers allowing for better informed treatment decisions these digital medicines can be used in heart failure central nervous system and transplant care

ldquoAs a result you could tell if yoursquore taking your medicines as prescribed while at the same time receiving unprecedented feedback on your physiological response to treatment this offers a path to improved healthrdquo said the company ldquoCurrently over 50 of people donrsquot get full benefit from the pharmaceuticals they use because they take the wrong dose or have trouble consistently following their prescriptionsrdquo it noted

Users can change colors of Philips Hue bulbs using mobile device YouTubeAutom is a friendly robot that helps you diet Intuitive Automata

from the toilet he can move to the sink where his smart Beam Brush ndash the worldrsquos first smart toothbrush ndash tracks his brushing habits and reports them to a smartphone app or directly to his dentist Apart from that the toothbrush will inform you when itrsquos time to replace the head and even let you order new ones directly from your phone

Digital pills monitor your treatment Meanwhile your aunt receives a call from her doctor reminding her to take her heart medication the doctor will know if your aunt is taking medication as prescribed and as scheduled through a pill with tiny sensors and transmitters that your aunt swallowed

According to the website of California-based company proteus Digital Health the company is working to create digital medicines or ingestible

According to the aforementioned McKinsey report internet of things technology can have a direct impact on human lives and health for example it says doctors now perform ldquocapsule endoscopyrdquo using a pill-shaped micro-camera with wireless data communication capabilities that travels through a patientrsquos digestive system and transmits images to a computer sensors that read the vital signs of patients at home

Changing hue on cue At the end of your eventful day you enter the bedroom and the lights automatically turn themselves on through your smartphone you adjust the color to vibrant blue white Before long the light flashes indicating that itrsquos time for you to sleep

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

12

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

11

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

you gotta see this

99 bottles of beer on the wall 99 bottles IS the wall In a June 28 dispatch the Seattle Washington-based environment news and commentary site Grist called our attention to a Buddhist temple complex built from recycled beer bottles as r eported in a feature in the United Kingdom-based Telegraph

According to the Telegraph feature the complex called Wat Lan Kuad (ldquoThe Temple of a Million Bottlesrdquo) in Thailandrsquos Sisaket province near the border with Cambodia actually uses 15 million green Heineken and brown Chang bottles in constituting the main temple a crematorium

prayer rooms a hall water tower tourist bathrooms and monksrsquo quarters consisting of several small bungalows raised off the ground along with mosaics of Buddha created with recycled bottle caps

To be sure the complex is not just bottles as the buildings do have a concrete core wersquore reminded but the point shouldnrsquot be lost on us that there might be something we can do with all our San Miguel beer bottles after wersquove drained them thoroughly And perhaps we can add our Ginebra San Miguel and Tanduay Rhum bottles to the mix (which should come up to a good number given that the Philippines is reportedly the worldrsquos biggest consumer of gin and its third-largest consumer of rum per this recent infographic from The Economist)

The sprawling art of one acrylic pen Christopher Jobsonrsquos Colossal blog which deals primarily with matters of non-digital art and visual ingenuity calls our attention to Japanese acrylic-pen artist Manabu Ikeda in his June 27 entry ldquoMaster of Pen and Ink The Monumental Drawings of Manabu Ikedardquo

He describes Ikedarsquos method as follows ldquo(A) blank paper canvas larger than a person spread before him a small acrylic pen in his hand and hundreds of days to fill with faintly imperceptible progress from a mind brimming with explosive creativity hellip works in areas measuring roughly 4Prime square spending eight hours a day often for years on a single drawing that can eventually dominate an entire wall hellip complete visual cacophony that somehow results in a single cohesive image The most unbelievable aspect being that Ikeda has no idea what the final artwork will look like but instead explores each work organically from day to day as he progresses inch by inchrdquo

The blog entry includes samples of and details from some of his work including the dimensions of the original works some of which measure 3rsquo x 4rsquo 65rsquo x 65rsquo or 6rsquo x 11rsquo

Wat Lan Kuad the temple that Chang (and Heineken)

Photo credit to Mark Fischer and Gristorg

A detail from Manabu Ikedarsquos 6rsquo x 11rsquo Foretoken

Image credit to Manabu Ikeda and Colossal

philipsrsquo smart light bulb Hue is a web-enabled leD home lighting system that when used with a mobile app lets the users control the color and brightness of lights in their homes it allows you to switch lights on and off remotely set timers and create or change mood lighting

According to the Hue website Hue lights can automatically turn on or change settings as you arrive home or turn everything off when you leave using smartphonersquos gpS or geofencing technology you can also have your lights flash at a specific time with its alarm tool With the timer function hue can turn the lights off flash or change color after a set amount of time ldquoSo you can time your workout with light have your lights flash when your favorite show is about to start or even shine bright pink to let you know when the cupcakes are ready itrsquos also great for telling the kids that playtime is up and itrsquos time for bedrdquo

Also philips employs a service that connects hue lights to over 60 different products and services With Hue you can ldquochange your lightrsquos color to let you know when itrsquos raining outside blink your lights when your favorite sports team starts a new game Randomly change your lightrsquos color with a text message rdquo

Confidentiality security of information still concerns the Sept 2012 white paper ldquoWhat the internet of things (iot) Needs to Become a Realityrdquo highlights the importance of safeguarding the information obtained by iot services and creating mechanisms to ensure confidentiality of information exchanged However the report by American embedded hardware producer freescale and British software design company ARM admits ldquothis is a tough balancing act as there are a whole host of iot-related services designed to leverage data mining

and generate push services the lsquoopt outrsquo mechanism for such services would be subject to the governance of the iotrdquo

in a Nov 2012 blog posted on CNN John Horn the president of RACo Wireless a provider of wireless data solutions for the Machine-to-Machine (M2M) industry talks about threats to the growth of M2M technology which allows machines to exchange information Horn said although the M2M technology (another term for iot) already exists it doesnrsquot invade every aspect of our business and daily lives yet because of two factors long development periods and adoption of 4g connectivity

ldquoMany enterprise M2M solutions require months if not years and a significant financial commitment to get to deployment With those daunting hurdles facing many technology decision makers and despite an average return on investment at around 40 companies are deferring their M2M strategiesrdquo explains Horn He stresses ldquoWe need to get to a point where implementing an M2M strategy involves a matter of hours or days instead of months and yearsrdquo

the shift in the mobile industry towards 3g and 4g networks is another hurdle As Horn observes command-and-control communication links typically need to carry and transmit only a few kilobytes of data for any given node unless high-resolution image processing or video data is involved ldquoAs mobile carriers negotiate with limited spectrum to support 4g rollouts 2g networks are often sacrificed the problem created is that M2M applications not only lose support but they face significant expenses to enter into a 3g or 4g system where their data usage does not come close to justifying the costs not to mention the significant capital investment required for a pricey 3g or 4g compatible devicerdquo he explains

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

Wired into the World Wide Web

247 connectivity is coming for both people and devices

STraTeGY PoINTSA McKinsey Global Institute report says there are about 25 billion people and 9 billion devices currently connected to the Internet and predicts that 2-3 billion more people will have Internet access by 2025

Being connected 247 will be the norm in 2020 and a prerequisite for participation in society a Booz amp Co report finds

Challenges include securing private data and building the digital infrastructure to support the growing number of Internet users

At 730 AM Monday John checks his smartphone for instant messages from his girlfriend in Switzerland Still on his

phone he uploads pictures from his beach trip with friends over the weekend to his social networking account After showering and getting dressed his glasses flash a reminder about his 11 AM meeting with the boss while John is sipping his coffee

it is already 845 AM according to his smart watch which also brings John the latest news of the day He hurries to do some last-minute tweaking of his presentation on his notebook plugging in figures from a marketing report he accessed through his desktop computer As he heads out the door he shuts down the coffee maker stereo and desktop computer with just his voice

today there are about 25 billion people and more than 9 billion devices around the world that are connected to the internet with another 2-3 billion more people set to gain access to the internet by 2025 predicts a McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

As the number of people with Web access is expected to grow to over 5 billion in just over a decade itrsquos the concept of the mobile internet one of the disruptive technologies discussed in the report that will affect how these 5 billion people go about their lives ldquogiving them tools to become potential innovators or entrepreneursrdquo

entire industries will be influenced by Generation C today many like John already live in a hyper-connected world as more and more people and gadgets are being connected seamlessly through the internet Social interactions business meetings educational instruction medical consultations international trade banking shopping and other services can now be done online By 2020 being connected will be the norm and a prerequisite for participation in societymdashat least as far as Booz amp Co is concerned

According to the companyrsquos ldquoRise of generation C implications for the World in 2020rdquo report by the year 2020 an entire generation will have grown up in a primarily digital world Computers the internet mobile devices and social networking sites will become second nature to them By then they will constitute the largest group of consumers worldwide As such entire industries will be influenced by these constantly connected content-centric and community-oriented individuals More importantly internet connectivity bridges the digital divide particularly for the developing world where disparities among urban and rural areas are more pronounced According to the United Nations Conference on trade and Development (UNCtAD) March report on ldquointernet broadband for an inclusive digital societyrdquo broadband connections can impact economic development education healthcare social and cultural enrichment and political engagement

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

By Marishka Noelle M Cabrera

HoW We CoNNeCT

Moments are captured through a first-person perspective with the use of Google Glass

Google Glass

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

15

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Bringing the Internet to remote parts of the developing world on his way to work John contacts a farmer in Vietnam who will supply raw materials this farmer was able to get in touch with Johnrsquos company because he was alerted through an app on his smartphone about potential markets for his crops And because he was able to double his farmrsquos yield with the help of online video lectures he will be able to meet the demand

the McKinsey report says more than 35 billion citizens in developing economies are expected to have access to the internet in 2025 Moreover it will be possible for entrepreneurs in developing economies to compete globally in online commerce while global players will have a new channel to access fast-growing markets

Project Loon to leapfrog over fiber-optic cables A June 15 Agence france-presse report says google has revealed plans to send balloons to the edge of space with the aim of bringing the internet to the two-thirds of the world population without Web access Scientists from google released up to 30 helium-filled test balloons flying 20 kilometers above Christchurch in New Zealand with antennae linked to ground-based stations in an experimental project named project loon these balloons can beam internet access to the ground at speeds similar to 3g networks or faster if successful the technology might allow countries to leapfrog the expense of installing fiber-optic cables

ldquoit works by ground stations connecting to the local internet infrastructure and beaming signals to the balloons which are self-powered by solar panelsrdquo the report explains ldquothe balloons which once in the stratosphere will be twice as high as commercial

airliners and barely visible to the naked eye are then able to communicate with each other forming a mesh network in the sky Users below have an internet antennae they attach the side of their house which can send and receive data signals from the balloons passing overheadrdquo

According to an earlier Wall Street Journal report google is said to be ldquodeep in a multipronged effort to build and help run wireless networks in emerging markets as part of a plan to connect a billion or more new people to the internetrdquo the tech giant plans to team up with local telecommunications firms from emerging markets to develop the networks as well as the business models to support them

Mobile Internet availability fuels the growth of mobile devices With the increase in internet connectivity the mobile computing industry continues to grow along with other tech innovations such as wearable devices ldquoUbiquitous connectivity and an explosive proliferation of apps are enabling users to go about their daily routines with new ways of knowing perceiving and even interacting with the physical worldrdquo the McKinsey amp Company report says

Wearable computing devices are described in a July 1 piece in Mashable as products aimed ldquoto record our

interactions with the world and then turn that data into something easily understood giving us insights in how we might change our behavior for the betterrdquo Nowadays technological progress has enabled these gadgets to have small cheap sensors that connect to a smartphone or tablet and use ldquothe phonersquos data connection as its path to the cloud where most data processing takes placerdquo google glass is an example of a wearable device with an optical head-mounted display (oHMD) it functions like a smartphone or tabletmdashit receives and sends messages takes photos and videos gives directions and allows users to share and retrieve information over the internetmdashbut is controlled mainly by voice command

tech giants Samsung and Apple are reported to be creating their own hands-free devices says a May 6 article in technology review site teck Comes first Apple Bloomberg says in a february report

has a team of about 100 product designers working on a ldquowristwatch-like device that may perform some of the tasks now handled by the iphone and ipadrdquo Chief executive officer tim Cook is said to be facing pressure from investors amid slowing sales growth and competition from rivals such as Samsung which a new revolutionary gadget could address Nike and health tech firm fitbit are already offering wearable machines for tracking fitness

Bloomberg says the introduction of wearable computing devices may signal a new direction for the consumer electronics industry similar to what the ipad did for the tablet market

Cloud technology and the Internet of things bring services and objects to the connected world Cloud technology can deliver any computer application or service over a network or the internet with minimal local software or processing power required in essence cloud computing involves storing and accessing data and programs over the internet instead of onersquos hard drive as described in a March 13 article in pC Mag ldquoWith an online connection cloud computing can be done anywhere anytimerdquo it says

the McKinsey report adds ldquothe cloud is enabling the explosive growth of internet-based services from search to streaming media to offline storage of personal data (photos books music) as well as the background processing capabilities that enable mobile internet devices to do things like respond to spoken commands to ask for directionsrdquo

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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everyday objects are being equipped with networked sensors and actuators bringing them to the connected world the internet of things is another technology mentioned in the McKinsey report that can impact people business society government and health in a big way this enables machinery shipments infrastructure and devices ldquoto monitor their environment report their status receive instructions and even take action based on the information they receiverdquo

tech expert Jonathan Strickland explains in a video from How Stuff Works how the internet of things can impact the way we live by walking us through the living room of the future He describes how sensors are taking information from real physical objects and uploading it to the internet ldquoitrsquos a world where your environment transforms as you walk through it because technology that you may not even be aware of is monitoring your every moverdquo he says the video shows how objects in

The Industrial revolution meets the Information agePerhaps itrsquos fitting that one of the 20th-century giants of the Industrial Revolution figure a new path to tread in the 21st century

In November 2012 General Electric (GE) announced that the world was ldquoon the threshold of a new era of innovation and change with the rise of the Industrial Internetrdquo a term it coined in a report by Peter C Evans GErsquos director of global strategy and analytics and Marco Annunziata GErsquos chief economist The report it said discusses ldquothe convergence of the global industrial system with the power of advanced computing analytics low-cost sensing and new levels of connectivity permitted by the Internetrdquo

A separate report in the Massachusetts Institute of Technologyrsquos MIT Technology Review also in November 2012 broke down GErsquos vision of the Industrial Internet thusly ldquoThe term coined inside GErsquos RampD division reflects the companyrsquos hope that adding more sensors to machinery will result in a deluge of data that will in turn let companies squeeze more efficiency out of locomotives jet engines MRI machines and other equipment GE sellsrdquo

According to the report GE is set to invest $15 billion in the idea over a three-year period looking at ways for example to sift through all the data to predict when GErsquos jet engines in service will need maintenance And in December 2012 it put some more money where its mouth was with GE Aviation and Accenture announcing the formation of Taleris a joint venture providing airlines and cargo carriers around the world with ldquointelligent operations services focused on improving efficiency by leveraging aircraft performance data prognostics recovery and planning optimization solutionsrdquo

But aviation is not the only area where GE sees potential in marrying machines to analytics and connectivity ldquoThese innovations promise to bring greater speed and efficiency to industries as diverse as aviation rail transportation power generation oil and gas development and health care deliveryrdquo Evans and Annunziata predict in their aforementioned report as summed up in the GE announcement

And the potential appears to be enormous The Industrial Internet according to Evans and Annunziata has the potential to boost average incomes in the United States by 25 to 40 over the next 20 years and to lift growth back to levels not seen since the late 1990s And If the rest of the world achieved just half of the US productivity gains the Industrial Internet could add from $10 to $15 trillion to global GDP ndash the size of todayrsquos US economy ndash over the same period the authors predicted

We will live in a world blanketed by sensors with objects that react to us tell us what we need and customize the environment around us Source How Stuff Works

the room can automatically identify you and tap into a cloud-based profile of your preferences such as room temperature music and lighting the room also knows whether you had a stressful day based on the

calendar app of your phone or the biosensors that detect heart rate and blood pressure

Challenges of being constantly connected Nevertheless the digital infrastructure must be able to support the growing number of devices accessing the internet today cellular networks such as 3g and 4g and Wi-fi are being used in homes offices and public spaces the McKinsey report predicts that over the coming decade 5g cellular networks satellite services and possibly long-range Wi-fi could become the next network advances ldquothese technologies will need to fight for increasingly scarce wireless frequencies but new approaches to dynamically sharing spectrum such as software-defined radios could help ease the crunchrdquo it notes

Meanwhile a June 21 piece in the Harvard Business Review Blog Network raises security concerns over the internet of things it notes ldquoparadoxically the

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

The long road to FacebookAs social media takes hold of the Information Age and sends us hurtling toward moving past bouncing off and occasionally colliding with all sorts of information at warp speed the very idea of a history of social media seems quaint and even dated And yet we are reminded now and then that in order to know to where we are going we need to know from where we came

Canadian journalist and blogger Cendrine Marrouat with some help from Karim Benyagoub provides us with a brief if unofficial history of social media as summed up in a neat infographic that takes us from the origins of the Internet (as Arpanet) in 1969 to its 24-billion population of users by 2012 including milestones and stopovers along the way that a new generation might have been too young to remember (eg the first e-mail was sent in 1971 a company called ICQ was doing instant messaging before AOL Google or Yahoo and Hotmail one of the first web-based commercial e-mail services was taken over by Microsoft in 1997 a year after it was set up by Sabeer Bhatia and Jack Smith as we recall) Image credit Karim Benyagoub and Cendrine Marrouat

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very principle that makes the [internet of things] so powerful mdash the potential to share data instantly with everyone and everything (every authorized entity that is) mdash creates a huge cybersecurity threatrdquo it will allow data to be shared more widely than ever and in real time

protecting your privacy will be a challenge Since information is shared or stored on a variety of devices it will be hard to keep track of what kind of data is being made available to the public imagine your wearable device for instance sending out information about your location the person you are with which items you bought your health and fitness levels and the like taken together these mobile devices coupled with the internet of things have the potential to build a treasure trove of data about you

without you even knowing it

And then therersquos the psychological cost of being constantly connected in her teD talk in february 2012 Sherry turkle Massachusetts

institute of technology (Mit) professor and director of the Mit initiative on technology and Self argues that ldquothose little deviceshellipare so psychologically powerful that they donrsquot only change what we do they change who we arerdquo She talks about how being constantly connected and attached to our devices can get in the way of us understanding one another and ourselves

in many ways technologies that allow us to build a network of connections in our daily lives have transformed the world for the better And yet these virtual connections can only make sense if real-life relationships are not substituted but cultivated

Sherry Turkle professor at MIT talks about how technology and the need to be connected also has the potential to make us feel more alone

supergraphicWIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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The Age of Autonomy Is Coming Soon to a Highway Near You

After the advent of driverless cars will we be ready for pilotless planesBy Victoria Fritz

STRATEGY POINTS

Driverless cars are coming soon and people are looking forward to it according to at least one global survey

Unmanned passenger planes are also on the drawing board and the testing ground

Ghost drivers on the horizon

the age of autonomous transportation is dawning featuring vehicles that can maneuver with reduced or even no human intervention as identified in the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the technology for driverless vehicles is already available or at least fast developing googlersquos driverless cars have logged over 300000 miles since 2010 without accidents (one accident in 2011 occurred when someone was driving) according to a May 13 article posted on the United States-based public Broadcasting Service (pBS) site

While googlersquos cars rack up the mileage BMW toyota and general Motors continue developing their own models Across the Atlantic in Spain Volvo upped googlersquos feat by queuing three cars behind a lorry for 200 kilometers on a busy highway as reported in Forbes in May 2012 in a practice called road-training ie making a train from queued cars)

The promised benefits of driverless technology Driverless technology offers many benefits not the least of which would be increased safety the majority of road accidents collectively responsible for over a million deaths a year according to World Bank figures are caused by human error Up to 90 of road accidents can be attributed to human error as reported in April 2011 on alertdrivingcom Removing man from the equation would theoretically reduce the number of road accidents significantly saving anywhere from 30000 to 150000 lives a year according to the McKinsey report

A special report on driverless cars ldquolook no handsrdquo in the April 20 edition of The Economist

cites decreased congestion as another benefit in a demonstration Volvo packed autonomous cars together in ldquoroad trainsrdquo this increases road capacity while easing traffic Road trains also create an aerodynamic effect that increases fuel efficiency which leads to a reduction in Co2 emissions A 1995 study by the University of Southern California showed that it could improve fuel efficiency by up to 30

freeing up the time allotted for driving also means more time for work or leisure increasing human productivity people can now start working even while on their way to the office What would that do to the official eight-hour workday

According to the McKinsey report the likely major impediments to a quick adoption of this new technology are creating the necessary regulatory frameworks and gaining public support

reducing one risk but begetting others the pBS article examined certain concerns faced by the driverless vehicle concept While it decreases one danger (by reducing or eliminating human error) it presents another ndash the possibility of computer error especially at high speeds At present car sensors are not able to cope with extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain or snow-covered streets

less obvious visual cues such as a construction project could be lost on a driverless vehicle Judgment calls such as when to go at a four-way stop could be tricky for such cars

An April 13 blog post on the Harvard law School communityrsquos discussion site City law discusses the legal aspects of driverless cars So far Nevada California and florida are the only states that have passed laws addressing automated vehicles With its onset driving licensure laws would need an overhaul

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

HoW We TraveL

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

the traffic safety governing body would need to promulgate new standards to address the technology and software it poses questions if a self-driving car hits a pedestrian who is liable

Carmakers already working on driverless cars Despite the lack of a regulatory framework according to the McKinsey report the following large carmakers are already developing their own versions general Motors toyota Mercedes-Benz Audi BMW and Volvo

Machine vision is a key capability in achieving vehicle autonomy with other systems working in tandem (for a quick review of the technologies involved refer to ldquothe Car of the future A thinking green Machinerdquo in the March 26 2012 issue of The CenSEI Report)

Costs prohibitive now but coming down drastically later Chunka Mui a contributor at Forbes magazine analyzed the obstacles to public acceptance of the driverless car in a January 2013 piece He listed cost as prohibitive at present saying estimated cost of each google driverless car is more than US$300000 However using the trajectory of the cost of a gigabyte of memory as an analogue ndash in 1981 a gigabyte cost US$300000 going down to US$10000 a decade later and then down to US$10 another 10 years later and now it costs less than 10 cents ndash he predicts that driverless technology will see the same drastic reduction in cost

Mui also looked into the question of public adoption people will be reluctant to let go of the steering wheel But he believes that once society sees the benefits people will come to trust the technology

Public trust still lacking An April 20 Christian Science Monitor blog post by Richard Read also encouraged people in the know to talk

with others about the driverless car in order to speed up development Read was recounting tips given during the Society of Automotive engineersrsquo World Congress in Detroit Michigan that week participants agreed the technology is already here but also identified the main impediment as lack of public trust first people need to become aware of autonomous vehicles Second they need to be convinced of their reliability

to get a better idea of the public pulse on this matter Cisco conducted a survey earlier this year and published its results in May on gigaomcom the global survey had 1514 respondents aged 18 and older of the total number surveyed across the globe 57 said they would ride a driverless car as reported by Kevin fitchard in his May 14 blog post in gigaoM discussing the Cisco survey

Countries however varied widely in their respective national responses Brazil topped the charts with a 95 approval rating followed by india and China Japan was a low 28 likewise western european countries were lukewarm in the United States where many prototypes of driverless technology are being tested the approval rating was 60 above the global average

fitchard himself acknowledged unwllingness to give up total control of the car saying he was more comfortable with some autonomy

CISCo GLoBaL SUrveYPUBLIC aCCePTaNCe oF DrIverLeSS CarS

Table from ldquoCisco survey Consumers are getting comfortable with the idea of the driverless carrdquo Kevin Fitchard as posted on GigaoM May 14 2013

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

CAPTION YouTube

He also questioned the veracity of an industry-sponsored survey saying that Cisco even though it wasnrsquot general Motors or google still had a stake in the matter But his observation of the generally thorough nature of Cisco surveys put his own doubts to rest

When will the future arrive there is some discussion as to when this new technology will be available to the mass market the panel at SAe sees this happening in 2025 according to a Wall Street Journal April 17 online article general Motors was reported as predicting the public debut of driverless cars in 2020 as reported in the aforementioned issue of The CenSEI Report google makes the boldest prediction and is hoping to offer this technology to the public by 2018

Ghost pilots in the sky

Whenever the driverless car gets here do you think yoursquoll be ready for airplanes that pilot themselves

A team at the Massachusetts institute of technology have developed an autonomous robotic plane capable of flying indoors without aid of a remote control device this could contribute significantly to the development of an pilotless passenger airplane Click on the image below for a video of the autonomous robotic plane in action

Getting a charge from driving

Autonomous or automatic to be more accurate charging is another way of increasing efficiency on the road Ever since electric vehicles debuted on the market the main obstacle has always been the battery ndash the cost the size the storage capacity Engineers are now working on solving that problem by creating an automatic charging system that is one built into the road Back in 2010 this system was launched in London as discussed in an article on Englandrsquos autocar website The system design is shown in the following graphic

An article appearing in the BBCrsquos Future section in March 2012 also mentions this ldquowireless highwayrdquo as a way to address electric car motoristsrsquo range anxiety (fear of losing power on the road) More recently on June 18 Business Insider ran an article that mentions Volvorsquos own project in partnership with Swedish power company Alstom to create a road that charges vehicles as they drive over it

1 - Power

2 - Transmitter

4 - Receiver Pad

5 - System

6 - Battery

3 - Wireless Electricity amp Data

Flying by the numbersWhen commercial flying was first introduced people took a long time to get over their fear of flying When they realized it was relatively safe they hopped on planes in droves Would people be willing to ride a pilotless plane as well

A November 2012 piece in The Economist looked into the possibility of pilotless aircraft taking off even before driverless cars and conducted its own survey on whether its readers thought pilot-less aircraft would take off before driverless cars This writerrsquos own misgivings notwithstanding the survey results indicate that an overwhelming 70 of respondents believe the pilotless plane will happen even before the driverless car

Most of the required technology such as autopilot or self-landing is already there the Economist piece observed The afore-mentioned ASTRAEA tests are about ascertaining whether these capabilities can be achieved without a pilot in the cockpit and in compliance with existing rules of air travel

you voted NoTotal votes 8486

Voting opened on Nov 23rd 2012

Graphic from The Economist poll ldquoWill pilotless airplanes takeoff before driverless carsrdquo generated from writerrsquos own participation in survey

in June this year a trial on pilotless passenger airplanes was conducted in the United Kingdom as reported on the site of The Engineer magazine the age of unmanned aircraft is drawing near the report declared qualifying that this was apart from already present military drones and remotely operated miniature vehicles British engineers announced that an adapted conventional

Jetstream passenger plane flew 500 miles without aid of a human operator under the aegis of AStRAeA the UKrsquos cross-industry project to develop technology and regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or systems (UAS) the report consisted of an interview where experts spoke at length about this new technologyrsquos issues

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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Page 3: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

6

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

5

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Devices get connected and mobile apps will allow us to access and control themBy Pia Rufino

STRATEGY POINTSA report predicts there will be 25 billion devices connected to the Internet by 2015 50 billion by 2020

More apps are helping people monitor their health and control remote devices from their smartphones and tablets

Long development periods and adoption of 4G connectivity are barriers to machine-to-machine technology growth says experts

Itrsquos Sunday and itrsquos your turn to prepare the weekly family lunch your smartphone informs you that you have chicken carrots and potatoes inside your refrigerator and

recommends that you roast a chicken Roast chicken sounds good to you so the refrigerator sends a roast chicken recipe to the oven which then automatically preheats to the appropriate temperature

Meanwhile through another phone app your refrigerator says yoursquore running out of eggs and that the milk has crossed the expiration date so you have it do the online shopping While putting the chicken in the oven you remember that the washing machine is on so you ask your brother who is watching his

in an April 2011 paper ldquothe internet of things (iot) How the Next evolution of the internet is changing everythingrdquo Ciscorsquos internet Business Solutions group (iBSg) reported that as of 2010 there were about 125 billion objects connected to the internet more than the world population of 68 billion making 2010 the starting point for Ciscorsquos internet of things Dave evans Ciscorsquos chief futurist and author of the paper predicts that there will be 25 billion devices connected to the internet by 2015 and 50 billion by 2020

in a May 7 blog posted on the Harvard Business Review software development expert Stefan ferber says the internet of things reflects a

dramatic development in the internetrsquos evolution enabling communication among physical objects By 2015 6 billion devices will have access to the internet according to estimates by Bosch Software innovations in germany where ferber is the director for the Business Development of the internet of things and Services ldquothe fact that there will be a global system of interconnected computer networks sensors actuators and devices all using the internet protocol holds so much potential to change our lives that it is often referred to as the internetrsquos next generationrdquo he writes

Household robots getting back to your everyday life from the kitchen you use your phone

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

favorite basketball team to check if a cycle has been completed since the tVrsquos already on

Although this sounds like a fanciful futuristic fable these connected appliances already exist South Korean electronics company lg introduced this line of smart appliances with advanced features that requires wireless internet connection ldquooffering enhanced connectivity and greater user conveniencerdquo at the international Consumer electronics Show (CeS) in las Vegas early this year according to a Jan 7 lg news release Users can control and monitor lgrsquos smart refrigerator washing machine and oven range using smartphones and lg Smart tV even from outside the home

Toasters Roasters Showers Shavers mdash All Gadgets Come Together in the Internet of Things

a

B

C

De

F

G

H

IJ

K

A - Refrigerator that tells you what you are out ofB - Robot vacuum cleaner controllable by smartphoneC - Light bulb and blinds controllable by smartphoneD - Alarm clock that tells the coffee maker to make coffee when you switch off the alarmE - Smartphone and TV that control various appliancesF - Doors that can be opened using smartphone as keys with WiFi-enabled video doorbellG - Temperature and lighting control via smartphonesH - Garden sensor waters your plants remotely via smartphone controlI - Pet feeder feeds pets even when you are away via smartphone controlJ - Bluetooth-enabled toothbrushK - High-tech toilet seat that greets you ldquohellordquo and plays your favorite song

HoW We LIve

8

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

7

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

to ask the robot vacuum cleaner to clean your room the lg HoM-Bot vacuum cleaner also unveiled at the CeS trade show can be remotely scheduled via a smartphone and Wi-fi connection the lg robot vacuum also has a camera that ldquoallows for remote home surveillance via a smartphone and even allows owners to speak to family members at homerdquo it can also be operated from an lg SmarttV

According to the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo although robotic vacuum cleaners have been around for years sales of these and similar household robotsmdashthat perform domestic tasks such as mopping lawn mowing and gutter-cleaningmdashare now growing rapidly by about 15-20 annually ldquoAdoption could accelerate even further by 2025

as these machines become more capable and consumers consider the trade-offs between buying robots sacrificing leisure time or hiring professional cleaners or gardeners to perform these tasksrdquo the report predicts

Wi-Fi doorbell doorlock your phone rings When you answer the call it launches a video chat with your aunt at the front door the Wi-fi-connected video doorbell DoorBot from the California design firm edison Junior connects to mobile devices and lets the user remotely see and chat with the visitors at the front door it will be available next month

So you unlock the door for your aunt by simply pressing a button on your smartphone lockitron a keyless smartphone-controlled door lock developed

by Cameron Robertson and paul gerhardt works even if the internet or power go out and allows consumers to use the original key

Connected pet feeder in the middle of her visit your aunt remembers itrsquos time to feed her puppy at home By tapping a button on her phone the automated feeder at her house dispenses food for her pet After 20 minutes she receives a twitter message saying that her Shih tzu has been fed the wireless feeder pintofeeder invented by Carlos Herrera from California is connected to an app that remotely feeds the pet as well as monitors food intake pintofeeder will also learn about petrsquos typical feeding times and automatically create a schedule to dispense food it can also report how much pets have eaten via text email and facebook message According to the productrsquos website production of the

pintofeeder began in early March and availability in 2013 will be limited

Interactive plant assistant Another app on your auntrsquos phone says that her orchids need watering Koubachi a wi-fi plant sensor that looks like a sawed-off golf club measures soil moisture temperature and light intensity for the potted plant that it is placed alongside it connects to an iphone app to send notifications or e-mail to users if their plant needs watering misting light shade or fertilizer as well as other plant-care advice

Monitoring your health your diet and your exercise regimen After lunch a voice asks how much you have eaten and how much exercise yoursquove already gotten in today But itrsquos not your personal trainer asking itrsquos Autom

your friendly 15-inch-tall robot weight coach sitting in the kitchen that keeps track of your eating and exercise and provides feedback advice and encouragement to keep you motivated to maintain your diet and exercise program According to its website shipping of orders starts this year

findings from studies of Cory Kidd founder of intuitive Automata creator of Autom compared the effects of interacting with a robot versus an animated character on the screen ldquoshowed that people were more engaged by a robot and when they got information from a robot or an animated character consistently found a robot to be more informative and more crediblerdquo according to the company websiteSee whorsquos at the front door and let the in anytime and from anywhere Christiestreet Pintofeeder dispenses food by simply tapping a button in your phone YouTube

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

9

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then you check your weight via your Wi-fi-enabled body scale Withings body scale has an online progress-tracking system that monitors your weight heart rate as well as the temperature of the room yoursquore in and that roomrsquos air quality Data is sent from the scale to the Withings app on your smartphone where it can be tracked for your own personal record or to share later with a physician or family members

you decide you need to burn more calories by running so you put on your Armour 39 gear consisting of a chest strap that sends basic performance measurements ndash speed intensity heart rate calories burned and a record of past performances ndash either to your Armour 39 watch or to an ioS app for your iphone to pick up later (According to a february Mashable article about the Armour 39 system its developer American sports clothing manufacturer Under Armour is working on developing touchscreen-capable t-shirts but that product is still years away)

The smart bathroom customizes your experience Meanwhile your brother goes to the bathroom and the toilet seat greets him ldquoHellordquo and plays his favorite Beatles song before he sits on it the Numi toilet Wisconsin-based manufacturer Kohlerrsquos most advanced toilet has a Bluetooth receiver for users to stream audio from their mobile devices an SD card to access custom playlists or personalized welcome messages a USB port for software updates according to an April Mashable article on the latest upgrade to the system

sensors that helps track patientsrsquo medication-taking behavior and monitor how the body is responding to the medicine the information from Digital Medicines could be shared with family members clinicians and other caregivers allowing for better informed treatment decisions these digital medicines can be used in heart failure central nervous system and transplant care

ldquoAs a result you could tell if yoursquore taking your medicines as prescribed while at the same time receiving unprecedented feedback on your physiological response to treatment this offers a path to improved healthrdquo said the company ldquoCurrently over 50 of people donrsquot get full benefit from the pharmaceuticals they use because they take the wrong dose or have trouble consistently following their prescriptionsrdquo it noted

Users can change colors of Philips Hue bulbs using mobile device YouTubeAutom is a friendly robot that helps you diet Intuitive Automata

from the toilet he can move to the sink where his smart Beam Brush ndash the worldrsquos first smart toothbrush ndash tracks his brushing habits and reports them to a smartphone app or directly to his dentist Apart from that the toothbrush will inform you when itrsquos time to replace the head and even let you order new ones directly from your phone

Digital pills monitor your treatment Meanwhile your aunt receives a call from her doctor reminding her to take her heart medication the doctor will know if your aunt is taking medication as prescribed and as scheduled through a pill with tiny sensors and transmitters that your aunt swallowed

According to the website of California-based company proteus Digital Health the company is working to create digital medicines or ingestible

According to the aforementioned McKinsey report internet of things technology can have a direct impact on human lives and health for example it says doctors now perform ldquocapsule endoscopyrdquo using a pill-shaped micro-camera with wireless data communication capabilities that travels through a patientrsquos digestive system and transmits images to a computer sensors that read the vital signs of patients at home

Changing hue on cue At the end of your eventful day you enter the bedroom and the lights automatically turn themselves on through your smartphone you adjust the color to vibrant blue white Before long the light flashes indicating that itrsquos time for you to sleep

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

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you gotta see this

99 bottles of beer on the wall 99 bottles IS the wall In a June 28 dispatch the Seattle Washington-based environment news and commentary site Grist called our attention to a Buddhist temple complex built from recycled beer bottles as r eported in a feature in the United Kingdom-based Telegraph

According to the Telegraph feature the complex called Wat Lan Kuad (ldquoThe Temple of a Million Bottlesrdquo) in Thailandrsquos Sisaket province near the border with Cambodia actually uses 15 million green Heineken and brown Chang bottles in constituting the main temple a crematorium

prayer rooms a hall water tower tourist bathrooms and monksrsquo quarters consisting of several small bungalows raised off the ground along with mosaics of Buddha created with recycled bottle caps

To be sure the complex is not just bottles as the buildings do have a concrete core wersquore reminded but the point shouldnrsquot be lost on us that there might be something we can do with all our San Miguel beer bottles after wersquove drained them thoroughly And perhaps we can add our Ginebra San Miguel and Tanduay Rhum bottles to the mix (which should come up to a good number given that the Philippines is reportedly the worldrsquos biggest consumer of gin and its third-largest consumer of rum per this recent infographic from The Economist)

The sprawling art of one acrylic pen Christopher Jobsonrsquos Colossal blog which deals primarily with matters of non-digital art and visual ingenuity calls our attention to Japanese acrylic-pen artist Manabu Ikeda in his June 27 entry ldquoMaster of Pen and Ink The Monumental Drawings of Manabu Ikedardquo

He describes Ikedarsquos method as follows ldquo(A) blank paper canvas larger than a person spread before him a small acrylic pen in his hand and hundreds of days to fill with faintly imperceptible progress from a mind brimming with explosive creativity hellip works in areas measuring roughly 4Prime square spending eight hours a day often for years on a single drawing that can eventually dominate an entire wall hellip complete visual cacophony that somehow results in a single cohesive image The most unbelievable aspect being that Ikeda has no idea what the final artwork will look like but instead explores each work organically from day to day as he progresses inch by inchrdquo

The blog entry includes samples of and details from some of his work including the dimensions of the original works some of which measure 3rsquo x 4rsquo 65rsquo x 65rsquo or 6rsquo x 11rsquo

Wat Lan Kuad the temple that Chang (and Heineken)

Photo credit to Mark Fischer and Gristorg

A detail from Manabu Ikedarsquos 6rsquo x 11rsquo Foretoken

Image credit to Manabu Ikeda and Colossal

philipsrsquo smart light bulb Hue is a web-enabled leD home lighting system that when used with a mobile app lets the users control the color and brightness of lights in their homes it allows you to switch lights on and off remotely set timers and create or change mood lighting

According to the Hue website Hue lights can automatically turn on or change settings as you arrive home or turn everything off when you leave using smartphonersquos gpS or geofencing technology you can also have your lights flash at a specific time with its alarm tool With the timer function hue can turn the lights off flash or change color after a set amount of time ldquoSo you can time your workout with light have your lights flash when your favorite show is about to start or even shine bright pink to let you know when the cupcakes are ready itrsquos also great for telling the kids that playtime is up and itrsquos time for bedrdquo

Also philips employs a service that connects hue lights to over 60 different products and services With Hue you can ldquochange your lightrsquos color to let you know when itrsquos raining outside blink your lights when your favorite sports team starts a new game Randomly change your lightrsquos color with a text message rdquo

Confidentiality security of information still concerns the Sept 2012 white paper ldquoWhat the internet of things (iot) Needs to Become a Realityrdquo highlights the importance of safeguarding the information obtained by iot services and creating mechanisms to ensure confidentiality of information exchanged However the report by American embedded hardware producer freescale and British software design company ARM admits ldquothis is a tough balancing act as there are a whole host of iot-related services designed to leverage data mining

and generate push services the lsquoopt outrsquo mechanism for such services would be subject to the governance of the iotrdquo

in a Nov 2012 blog posted on CNN John Horn the president of RACo Wireless a provider of wireless data solutions for the Machine-to-Machine (M2M) industry talks about threats to the growth of M2M technology which allows machines to exchange information Horn said although the M2M technology (another term for iot) already exists it doesnrsquot invade every aspect of our business and daily lives yet because of two factors long development periods and adoption of 4g connectivity

ldquoMany enterprise M2M solutions require months if not years and a significant financial commitment to get to deployment With those daunting hurdles facing many technology decision makers and despite an average return on investment at around 40 companies are deferring their M2M strategiesrdquo explains Horn He stresses ldquoWe need to get to a point where implementing an M2M strategy involves a matter of hours or days instead of months and yearsrdquo

the shift in the mobile industry towards 3g and 4g networks is another hurdle As Horn observes command-and-control communication links typically need to carry and transmit only a few kilobytes of data for any given node unless high-resolution image processing or video data is involved ldquoAs mobile carriers negotiate with limited spectrum to support 4g rollouts 2g networks are often sacrificed the problem created is that M2M applications not only lose support but they face significant expenses to enter into a 3g or 4g system where their data usage does not come close to justifying the costs not to mention the significant capital investment required for a pricey 3g or 4g compatible devicerdquo he explains

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

Wired into the World Wide Web

247 connectivity is coming for both people and devices

STraTeGY PoINTSA McKinsey Global Institute report says there are about 25 billion people and 9 billion devices currently connected to the Internet and predicts that 2-3 billion more people will have Internet access by 2025

Being connected 247 will be the norm in 2020 and a prerequisite for participation in society a Booz amp Co report finds

Challenges include securing private data and building the digital infrastructure to support the growing number of Internet users

At 730 AM Monday John checks his smartphone for instant messages from his girlfriend in Switzerland Still on his

phone he uploads pictures from his beach trip with friends over the weekend to his social networking account After showering and getting dressed his glasses flash a reminder about his 11 AM meeting with the boss while John is sipping his coffee

it is already 845 AM according to his smart watch which also brings John the latest news of the day He hurries to do some last-minute tweaking of his presentation on his notebook plugging in figures from a marketing report he accessed through his desktop computer As he heads out the door he shuts down the coffee maker stereo and desktop computer with just his voice

today there are about 25 billion people and more than 9 billion devices around the world that are connected to the internet with another 2-3 billion more people set to gain access to the internet by 2025 predicts a McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

As the number of people with Web access is expected to grow to over 5 billion in just over a decade itrsquos the concept of the mobile internet one of the disruptive technologies discussed in the report that will affect how these 5 billion people go about their lives ldquogiving them tools to become potential innovators or entrepreneursrdquo

entire industries will be influenced by Generation C today many like John already live in a hyper-connected world as more and more people and gadgets are being connected seamlessly through the internet Social interactions business meetings educational instruction medical consultations international trade banking shopping and other services can now be done online By 2020 being connected will be the norm and a prerequisite for participation in societymdashat least as far as Booz amp Co is concerned

According to the companyrsquos ldquoRise of generation C implications for the World in 2020rdquo report by the year 2020 an entire generation will have grown up in a primarily digital world Computers the internet mobile devices and social networking sites will become second nature to them By then they will constitute the largest group of consumers worldwide As such entire industries will be influenced by these constantly connected content-centric and community-oriented individuals More importantly internet connectivity bridges the digital divide particularly for the developing world where disparities among urban and rural areas are more pronounced According to the United Nations Conference on trade and Development (UNCtAD) March report on ldquointernet broadband for an inclusive digital societyrdquo broadband connections can impact economic development education healthcare social and cultural enrichment and political engagement

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POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

By Marishka Noelle M Cabrera

HoW We CoNNeCT

Moments are captured through a first-person perspective with the use of Google Glass

Google Glass

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Bringing the Internet to remote parts of the developing world on his way to work John contacts a farmer in Vietnam who will supply raw materials this farmer was able to get in touch with Johnrsquos company because he was alerted through an app on his smartphone about potential markets for his crops And because he was able to double his farmrsquos yield with the help of online video lectures he will be able to meet the demand

the McKinsey report says more than 35 billion citizens in developing economies are expected to have access to the internet in 2025 Moreover it will be possible for entrepreneurs in developing economies to compete globally in online commerce while global players will have a new channel to access fast-growing markets

Project Loon to leapfrog over fiber-optic cables A June 15 Agence france-presse report says google has revealed plans to send balloons to the edge of space with the aim of bringing the internet to the two-thirds of the world population without Web access Scientists from google released up to 30 helium-filled test balloons flying 20 kilometers above Christchurch in New Zealand with antennae linked to ground-based stations in an experimental project named project loon these balloons can beam internet access to the ground at speeds similar to 3g networks or faster if successful the technology might allow countries to leapfrog the expense of installing fiber-optic cables

ldquoit works by ground stations connecting to the local internet infrastructure and beaming signals to the balloons which are self-powered by solar panelsrdquo the report explains ldquothe balloons which once in the stratosphere will be twice as high as commercial

airliners and barely visible to the naked eye are then able to communicate with each other forming a mesh network in the sky Users below have an internet antennae they attach the side of their house which can send and receive data signals from the balloons passing overheadrdquo

According to an earlier Wall Street Journal report google is said to be ldquodeep in a multipronged effort to build and help run wireless networks in emerging markets as part of a plan to connect a billion or more new people to the internetrdquo the tech giant plans to team up with local telecommunications firms from emerging markets to develop the networks as well as the business models to support them

Mobile Internet availability fuels the growth of mobile devices With the increase in internet connectivity the mobile computing industry continues to grow along with other tech innovations such as wearable devices ldquoUbiquitous connectivity and an explosive proliferation of apps are enabling users to go about their daily routines with new ways of knowing perceiving and even interacting with the physical worldrdquo the McKinsey amp Company report says

Wearable computing devices are described in a July 1 piece in Mashable as products aimed ldquoto record our

interactions with the world and then turn that data into something easily understood giving us insights in how we might change our behavior for the betterrdquo Nowadays technological progress has enabled these gadgets to have small cheap sensors that connect to a smartphone or tablet and use ldquothe phonersquos data connection as its path to the cloud where most data processing takes placerdquo google glass is an example of a wearable device with an optical head-mounted display (oHMD) it functions like a smartphone or tabletmdashit receives and sends messages takes photos and videos gives directions and allows users to share and retrieve information over the internetmdashbut is controlled mainly by voice command

tech giants Samsung and Apple are reported to be creating their own hands-free devices says a May 6 article in technology review site teck Comes first Apple Bloomberg says in a february report

has a team of about 100 product designers working on a ldquowristwatch-like device that may perform some of the tasks now handled by the iphone and ipadrdquo Chief executive officer tim Cook is said to be facing pressure from investors amid slowing sales growth and competition from rivals such as Samsung which a new revolutionary gadget could address Nike and health tech firm fitbit are already offering wearable machines for tracking fitness

Bloomberg says the introduction of wearable computing devices may signal a new direction for the consumer electronics industry similar to what the ipad did for the tablet market

Cloud technology and the Internet of things bring services and objects to the connected world Cloud technology can deliver any computer application or service over a network or the internet with minimal local software or processing power required in essence cloud computing involves storing and accessing data and programs over the internet instead of onersquos hard drive as described in a March 13 article in pC Mag ldquoWith an online connection cloud computing can be done anywhere anytimerdquo it says

the McKinsey report adds ldquothe cloud is enabling the explosive growth of internet-based services from search to streaming media to offline storage of personal data (photos books music) as well as the background processing capabilities that enable mobile internet devices to do things like respond to spoken commands to ask for directionsrdquo

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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everyday objects are being equipped with networked sensors and actuators bringing them to the connected world the internet of things is another technology mentioned in the McKinsey report that can impact people business society government and health in a big way this enables machinery shipments infrastructure and devices ldquoto monitor their environment report their status receive instructions and even take action based on the information they receiverdquo

tech expert Jonathan Strickland explains in a video from How Stuff Works how the internet of things can impact the way we live by walking us through the living room of the future He describes how sensors are taking information from real physical objects and uploading it to the internet ldquoitrsquos a world where your environment transforms as you walk through it because technology that you may not even be aware of is monitoring your every moverdquo he says the video shows how objects in

The Industrial revolution meets the Information agePerhaps itrsquos fitting that one of the 20th-century giants of the Industrial Revolution figure a new path to tread in the 21st century

In November 2012 General Electric (GE) announced that the world was ldquoon the threshold of a new era of innovation and change with the rise of the Industrial Internetrdquo a term it coined in a report by Peter C Evans GErsquos director of global strategy and analytics and Marco Annunziata GErsquos chief economist The report it said discusses ldquothe convergence of the global industrial system with the power of advanced computing analytics low-cost sensing and new levels of connectivity permitted by the Internetrdquo

A separate report in the Massachusetts Institute of Technologyrsquos MIT Technology Review also in November 2012 broke down GErsquos vision of the Industrial Internet thusly ldquoThe term coined inside GErsquos RampD division reflects the companyrsquos hope that adding more sensors to machinery will result in a deluge of data that will in turn let companies squeeze more efficiency out of locomotives jet engines MRI machines and other equipment GE sellsrdquo

According to the report GE is set to invest $15 billion in the idea over a three-year period looking at ways for example to sift through all the data to predict when GErsquos jet engines in service will need maintenance And in December 2012 it put some more money where its mouth was with GE Aviation and Accenture announcing the formation of Taleris a joint venture providing airlines and cargo carriers around the world with ldquointelligent operations services focused on improving efficiency by leveraging aircraft performance data prognostics recovery and planning optimization solutionsrdquo

But aviation is not the only area where GE sees potential in marrying machines to analytics and connectivity ldquoThese innovations promise to bring greater speed and efficiency to industries as diverse as aviation rail transportation power generation oil and gas development and health care deliveryrdquo Evans and Annunziata predict in their aforementioned report as summed up in the GE announcement

And the potential appears to be enormous The Industrial Internet according to Evans and Annunziata has the potential to boost average incomes in the United States by 25 to 40 over the next 20 years and to lift growth back to levels not seen since the late 1990s And If the rest of the world achieved just half of the US productivity gains the Industrial Internet could add from $10 to $15 trillion to global GDP ndash the size of todayrsquos US economy ndash over the same period the authors predicted

We will live in a world blanketed by sensors with objects that react to us tell us what we need and customize the environment around us Source How Stuff Works

the room can automatically identify you and tap into a cloud-based profile of your preferences such as room temperature music and lighting the room also knows whether you had a stressful day based on the

calendar app of your phone or the biosensors that detect heart rate and blood pressure

Challenges of being constantly connected Nevertheless the digital infrastructure must be able to support the growing number of devices accessing the internet today cellular networks such as 3g and 4g and Wi-fi are being used in homes offices and public spaces the McKinsey report predicts that over the coming decade 5g cellular networks satellite services and possibly long-range Wi-fi could become the next network advances ldquothese technologies will need to fight for increasingly scarce wireless frequencies but new approaches to dynamically sharing spectrum such as software-defined radios could help ease the crunchrdquo it notes

Meanwhile a June 21 piece in the Harvard Business Review Blog Network raises security concerns over the internet of things it notes ldquoparadoxically the

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

The long road to FacebookAs social media takes hold of the Information Age and sends us hurtling toward moving past bouncing off and occasionally colliding with all sorts of information at warp speed the very idea of a history of social media seems quaint and even dated And yet we are reminded now and then that in order to know to where we are going we need to know from where we came

Canadian journalist and blogger Cendrine Marrouat with some help from Karim Benyagoub provides us with a brief if unofficial history of social media as summed up in a neat infographic that takes us from the origins of the Internet (as Arpanet) in 1969 to its 24-billion population of users by 2012 including milestones and stopovers along the way that a new generation might have been too young to remember (eg the first e-mail was sent in 1971 a company called ICQ was doing instant messaging before AOL Google or Yahoo and Hotmail one of the first web-based commercial e-mail services was taken over by Microsoft in 1997 a year after it was set up by Sabeer Bhatia and Jack Smith as we recall) Image credit Karim Benyagoub and Cendrine Marrouat

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very principle that makes the [internet of things] so powerful mdash the potential to share data instantly with everyone and everything (every authorized entity that is) mdash creates a huge cybersecurity threatrdquo it will allow data to be shared more widely than ever and in real time

protecting your privacy will be a challenge Since information is shared or stored on a variety of devices it will be hard to keep track of what kind of data is being made available to the public imagine your wearable device for instance sending out information about your location the person you are with which items you bought your health and fitness levels and the like taken together these mobile devices coupled with the internet of things have the potential to build a treasure trove of data about you

without you even knowing it

And then therersquos the psychological cost of being constantly connected in her teD talk in february 2012 Sherry turkle Massachusetts

institute of technology (Mit) professor and director of the Mit initiative on technology and Self argues that ldquothose little deviceshellipare so psychologically powerful that they donrsquot only change what we do they change who we arerdquo She talks about how being constantly connected and attached to our devices can get in the way of us understanding one another and ourselves

in many ways technologies that allow us to build a network of connections in our daily lives have transformed the world for the better And yet these virtual connections can only make sense if real-life relationships are not substituted but cultivated

Sherry Turkle professor at MIT talks about how technology and the need to be connected also has the potential to make us feel more alone

supergraphicWIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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The Age of Autonomy Is Coming Soon to a Highway Near You

After the advent of driverless cars will we be ready for pilotless planesBy Victoria Fritz

STRATEGY POINTS

Driverless cars are coming soon and people are looking forward to it according to at least one global survey

Unmanned passenger planes are also on the drawing board and the testing ground

Ghost drivers on the horizon

the age of autonomous transportation is dawning featuring vehicles that can maneuver with reduced or even no human intervention as identified in the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the technology for driverless vehicles is already available or at least fast developing googlersquos driverless cars have logged over 300000 miles since 2010 without accidents (one accident in 2011 occurred when someone was driving) according to a May 13 article posted on the United States-based public Broadcasting Service (pBS) site

While googlersquos cars rack up the mileage BMW toyota and general Motors continue developing their own models Across the Atlantic in Spain Volvo upped googlersquos feat by queuing three cars behind a lorry for 200 kilometers on a busy highway as reported in Forbes in May 2012 in a practice called road-training ie making a train from queued cars)

The promised benefits of driverless technology Driverless technology offers many benefits not the least of which would be increased safety the majority of road accidents collectively responsible for over a million deaths a year according to World Bank figures are caused by human error Up to 90 of road accidents can be attributed to human error as reported in April 2011 on alertdrivingcom Removing man from the equation would theoretically reduce the number of road accidents significantly saving anywhere from 30000 to 150000 lives a year according to the McKinsey report

A special report on driverless cars ldquolook no handsrdquo in the April 20 edition of The Economist

cites decreased congestion as another benefit in a demonstration Volvo packed autonomous cars together in ldquoroad trainsrdquo this increases road capacity while easing traffic Road trains also create an aerodynamic effect that increases fuel efficiency which leads to a reduction in Co2 emissions A 1995 study by the University of Southern California showed that it could improve fuel efficiency by up to 30

freeing up the time allotted for driving also means more time for work or leisure increasing human productivity people can now start working even while on their way to the office What would that do to the official eight-hour workday

According to the McKinsey report the likely major impediments to a quick adoption of this new technology are creating the necessary regulatory frameworks and gaining public support

reducing one risk but begetting others the pBS article examined certain concerns faced by the driverless vehicle concept While it decreases one danger (by reducing or eliminating human error) it presents another ndash the possibility of computer error especially at high speeds At present car sensors are not able to cope with extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain or snow-covered streets

less obvious visual cues such as a construction project could be lost on a driverless vehicle Judgment calls such as when to go at a four-way stop could be tricky for such cars

An April 13 blog post on the Harvard law School communityrsquos discussion site City law discusses the legal aspects of driverless cars So far Nevada California and florida are the only states that have passed laws addressing automated vehicles With its onset driving licensure laws would need an overhaul

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

HoW We TraveL

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

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the traffic safety governing body would need to promulgate new standards to address the technology and software it poses questions if a self-driving car hits a pedestrian who is liable

Carmakers already working on driverless cars Despite the lack of a regulatory framework according to the McKinsey report the following large carmakers are already developing their own versions general Motors toyota Mercedes-Benz Audi BMW and Volvo

Machine vision is a key capability in achieving vehicle autonomy with other systems working in tandem (for a quick review of the technologies involved refer to ldquothe Car of the future A thinking green Machinerdquo in the March 26 2012 issue of The CenSEI Report)

Costs prohibitive now but coming down drastically later Chunka Mui a contributor at Forbes magazine analyzed the obstacles to public acceptance of the driverless car in a January 2013 piece He listed cost as prohibitive at present saying estimated cost of each google driverless car is more than US$300000 However using the trajectory of the cost of a gigabyte of memory as an analogue ndash in 1981 a gigabyte cost US$300000 going down to US$10000 a decade later and then down to US$10 another 10 years later and now it costs less than 10 cents ndash he predicts that driverless technology will see the same drastic reduction in cost

Mui also looked into the question of public adoption people will be reluctant to let go of the steering wheel But he believes that once society sees the benefits people will come to trust the technology

Public trust still lacking An April 20 Christian Science Monitor blog post by Richard Read also encouraged people in the know to talk

with others about the driverless car in order to speed up development Read was recounting tips given during the Society of Automotive engineersrsquo World Congress in Detroit Michigan that week participants agreed the technology is already here but also identified the main impediment as lack of public trust first people need to become aware of autonomous vehicles Second they need to be convinced of their reliability

to get a better idea of the public pulse on this matter Cisco conducted a survey earlier this year and published its results in May on gigaomcom the global survey had 1514 respondents aged 18 and older of the total number surveyed across the globe 57 said they would ride a driverless car as reported by Kevin fitchard in his May 14 blog post in gigaoM discussing the Cisco survey

Countries however varied widely in their respective national responses Brazil topped the charts with a 95 approval rating followed by india and China Japan was a low 28 likewise western european countries were lukewarm in the United States where many prototypes of driverless technology are being tested the approval rating was 60 above the global average

fitchard himself acknowledged unwllingness to give up total control of the car saying he was more comfortable with some autonomy

CISCo GLoBaL SUrveYPUBLIC aCCePTaNCe oF DrIverLeSS CarS

Table from ldquoCisco survey Consumers are getting comfortable with the idea of the driverless carrdquo Kevin Fitchard as posted on GigaoM May 14 2013

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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CAPTION YouTube

He also questioned the veracity of an industry-sponsored survey saying that Cisco even though it wasnrsquot general Motors or google still had a stake in the matter But his observation of the generally thorough nature of Cisco surveys put his own doubts to rest

When will the future arrive there is some discussion as to when this new technology will be available to the mass market the panel at SAe sees this happening in 2025 according to a Wall Street Journal April 17 online article general Motors was reported as predicting the public debut of driverless cars in 2020 as reported in the aforementioned issue of The CenSEI Report google makes the boldest prediction and is hoping to offer this technology to the public by 2018

Ghost pilots in the sky

Whenever the driverless car gets here do you think yoursquoll be ready for airplanes that pilot themselves

A team at the Massachusetts institute of technology have developed an autonomous robotic plane capable of flying indoors without aid of a remote control device this could contribute significantly to the development of an pilotless passenger airplane Click on the image below for a video of the autonomous robotic plane in action

Getting a charge from driving

Autonomous or automatic to be more accurate charging is another way of increasing efficiency on the road Ever since electric vehicles debuted on the market the main obstacle has always been the battery ndash the cost the size the storage capacity Engineers are now working on solving that problem by creating an automatic charging system that is one built into the road Back in 2010 this system was launched in London as discussed in an article on Englandrsquos autocar website The system design is shown in the following graphic

An article appearing in the BBCrsquos Future section in March 2012 also mentions this ldquowireless highwayrdquo as a way to address electric car motoristsrsquo range anxiety (fear of losing power on the road) More recently on June 18 Business Insider ran an article that mentions Volvorsquos own project in partnership with Swedish power company Alstom to create a road that charges vehicles as they drive over it

1 - Power

2 - Transmitter

4 - Receiver Pad

5 - System

6 - Battery

3 - Wireless Electricity amp Data

Flying by the numbersWhen commercial flying was first introduced people took a long time to get over their fear of flying When they realized it was relatively safe they hopped on planes in droves Would people be willing to ride a pilotless plane as well

A November 2012 piece in The Economist looked into the possibility of pilotless aircraft taking off even before driverless cars and conducted its own survey on whether its readers thought pilot-less aircraft would take off before driverless cars This writerrsquos own misgivings notwithstanding the survey results indicate that an overwhelming 70 of respondents believe the pilotless plane will happen even before the driverless car

Most of the required technology such as autopilot or self-landing is already there the Economist piece observed The afore-mentioned ASTRAEA tests are about ascertaining whether these capabilities can be achieved without a pilot in the cockpit and in compliance with existing rules of air travel

you voted NoTotal votes 8486

Voting opened on Nov 23rd 2012

Graphic from The Economist poll ldquoWill pilotless airplanes takeoff before driverless carsrdquo generated from writerrsquos own participation in survey

in June this year a trial on pilotless passenger airplanes was conducted in the United Kingdom as reported on the site of The Engineer magazine the age of unmanned aircraft is drawing near the report declared qualifying that this was apart from already present military drones and remotely operated miniature vehicles British engineers announced that an adapted conventional

Jetstream passenger plane flew 500 miles without aid of a human operator under the aegis of AStRAeA the UKrsquos cross-industry project to develop technology and regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or systems (UAS) the report consisted of an interview where experts spoke at length about this new technologyrsquos issues

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

28

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

27

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

29

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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Page 4: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

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to ask the robot vacuum cleaner to clean your room the lg HoM-Bot vacuum cleaner also unveiled at the CeS trade show can be remotely scheduled via a smartphone and Wi-fi connection the lg robot vacuum also has a camera that ldquoallows for remote home surveillance via a smartphone and even allows owners to speak to family members at homerdquo it can also be operated from an lg SmarttV

According to the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo although robotic vacuum cleaners have been around for years sales of these and similar household robotsmdashthat perform domestic tasks such as mopping lawn mowing and gutter-cleaningmdashare now growing rapidly by about 15-20 annually ldquoAdoption could accelerate even further by 2025

as these machines become more capable and consumers consider the trade-offs between buying robots sacrificing leisure time or hiring professional cleaners or gardeners to perform these tasksrdquo the report predicts

Wi-Fi doorbell doorlock your phone rings When you answer the call it launches a video chat with your aunt at the front door the Wi-fi-connected video doorbell DoorBot from the California design firm edison Junior connects to mobile devices and lets the user remotely see and chat with the visitors at the front door it will be available next month

So you unlock the door for your aunt by simply pressing a button on your smartphone lockitron a keyless smartphone-controlled door lock developed

by Cameron Robertson and paul gerhardt works even if the internet or power go out and allows consumers to use the original key

Connected pet feeder in the middle of her visit your aunt remembers itrsquos time to feed her puppy at home By tapping a button on her phone the automated feeder at her house dispenses food for her pet After 20 minutes she receives a twitter message saying that her Shih tzu has been fed the wireless feeder pintofeeder invented by Carlos Herrera from California is connected to an app that remotely feeds the pet as well as monitors food intake pintofeeder will also learn about petrsquos typical feeding times and automatically create a schedule to dispense food it can also report how much pets have eaten via text email and facebook message According to the productrsquos website production of the

pintofeeder began in early March and availability in 2013 will be limited

Interactive plant assistant Another app on your auntrsquos phone says that her orchids need watering Koubachi a wi-fi plant sensor that looks like a sawed-off golf club measures soil moisture temperature and light intensity for the potted plant that it is placed alongside it connects to an iphone app to send notifications or e-mail to users if their plant needs watering misting light shade or fertilizer as well as other plant-care advice

Monitoring your health your diet and your exercise regimen After lunch a voice asks how much you have eaten and how much exercise yoursquove already gotten in today But itrsquos not your personal trainer asking itrsquos Autom

your friendly 15-inch-tall robot weight coach sitting in the kitchen that keeps track of your eating and exercise and provides feedback advice and encouragement to keep you motivated to maintain your diet and exercise program According to its website shipping of orders starts this year

findings from studies of Cory Kidd founder of intuitive Automata creator of Autom compared the effects of interacting with a robot versus an animated character on the screen ldquoshowed that people were more engaged by a robot and when they got information from a robot or an animated character consistently found a robot to be more informative and more crediblerdquo according to the company websiteSee whorsquos at the front door and let the in anytime and from anywhere Christiestreet Pintofeeder dispenses food by simply tapping a button in your phone YouTube

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

9

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then you check your weight via your Wi-fi-enabled body scale Withings body scale has an online progress-tracking system that monitors your weight heart rate as well as the temperature of the room yoursquore in and that roomrsquos air quality Data is sent from the scale to the Withings app on your smartphone where it can be tracked for your own personal record or to share later with a physician or family members

you decide you need to burn more calories by running so you put on your Armour 39 gear consisting of a chest strap that sends basic performance measurements ndash speed intensity heart rate calories burned and a record of past performances ndash either to your Armour 39 watch or to an ioS app for your iphone to pick up later (According to a february Mashable article about the Armour 39 system its developer American sports clothing manufacturer Under Armour is working on developing touchscreen-capable t-shirts but that product is still years away)

The smart bathroom customizes your experience Meanwhile your brother goes to the bathroom and the toilet seat greets him ldquoHellordquo and plays his favorite Beatles song before he sits on it the Numi toilet Wisconsin-based manufacturer Kohlerrsquos most advanced toilet has a Bluetooth receiver for users to stream audio from their mobile devices an SD card to access custom playlists or personalized welcome messages a USB port for software updates according to an April Mashable article on the latest upgrade to the system

sensors that helps track patientsrsquo medication-taking behavior and monitor how the body is responding to the medicine the information from Digital Medicines could be shared with family members clinicians and other caregivers allowing for better informed treatment decisions these digital medicines can be used in heart failure central nervous system and transplant care

ldquoAs a result you could tell if yoursquore taking your medicines as prescribed while at the same time receiving unprecedented feedback on your physiological response to treatment this offers a path to improved healthrdquo said the company ldquoCurrently over 50 of people donrsquot get full benefit from the pharmaceuticals they use because they take the wrong dose or have trouble consistently following their prescriptionsrdquo it noted

Users can change colors of Philips Hue bulbs using mobile device YouTubeAutom is a friendly robot that helps you diet Intuitive Automata

from the toilet he can move to the sink where his smart Beam Brush ndash the worldrsquos first smart toothbrush ndash tracks his brushing habits and reports them to a smartphone app or directly to his dentist Apart from that the toothbrush will inform you when itrsquos time to replace the head and even let you order new ones directly from your phone

Digital pills monitor your treatment Meanwhile your aunt receives a call from her doctor reminding her to take her heart medication the doctor will know if your aunt is taking medication as prescribed and as scheduled through a pill with tiny sensors and transmitters that your aunt swallowed

According to the website of California-based company proteus Digital Health the company is working to create digital medicines or ingestible

According to the aforementioned McKinsey report internet of things technology can have a direct impact on human lives and health for example it says doctors now perform ldquocapsule endoscopyrdquo using a pill-shaped micro-camera with wireless data communication capabilities that travels through a patientrsquos digestive system and transmits images to a computer sensors that read the vital signs of patients at home

Changing hue on cue At the end of your eventful day you enter the bedroom and the lights automatically turn themselves on through your smartphone you adjust the color to vibrant blue white Before long the light flashes indicating that itrsquos time for you to sleep

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

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you gotta see this

99 bottles of beer on the wall 99 bottles IS the wall In a June 28 dispatch the Seattle Washington-based environment news and commentary site Grist called our attention to a Buddhist temple complex built from recycled beer bottles as r eported in a feature in the United Kingdom-based Telegraph

According to the Telegraph feature the complex called Wat Lan Kuad (ldquoThe Temple of a Million Bottlesrdquo) in Thailandrsquos Sisaket province near the border with Cambodia actually uses 15 million green Heineken and brown Chang bottles in constituting the main temple a crematorium

prayer rooms a hall water tower tourist bathrooms and monksrsquo quarters consisting of several small bungalows raised off the ground along with mosaics of Buddha created with recycled bottle caps

To be sure the complex is not just bottles as the buildings do have a concrete core wersquore reminded but the point shouldnrsquot be lost on us that there might be something we can do with all our San Miguel beer bottles after wersquove drained them thoroughly And perhaps we can add our Ginebra San Miguel and Tanduay Rhum bottles to the mix (which should come up to a good number given that the Philippines is reportedly the worldrsquos biggest consumer of gin and its third-largest consumer of rum per this recent infographic from The Economist)

The sprawling art of one acrylic pen Christopher Jobsonrsquos Colossal blog which deals primarily with matters of non-digital art and visual ingenuity calls our attention to Japanese acrylic-pen artist Manabu Ikeda in his June 27 entry ldquoMaster of Pen and Ink The Monumental Drawings of Manabu Ikedardquo

He describes Ikedarsquos method as follows ldquo(A) blank paper canvas larger than a person spread before him a small acrylic pen in his hand and hundreds of days to fill with faintly imperceptible progress from a mind brimming with explosive creativity hellip works in areas measuring roughly 4Prime square spending eight hours a day often for years on a single drawing that can eventually dominate an entire wall hellip complete visual cacophony that somehow results in a single cohesive image The most unbelievable aspect being that Ikeda has no idea what the final artwork will look like but instead explores each work organically from day to day as he progresses inch by inchrdquo

The blog entry includes samples of and details from some of his work including the dimensions of the original works some of which measure 3rsquo x 4rsquo 65rsquo x 65rsquo or 6rsquo x 11rsquo

Wat Lan Kuad the temple that Chang (and Heineken)

Photo credit to Mark Fischer and Gristorg

A detail from Manabu Ikedarsquos 6rsquo x 11rsquo Foretoken

Image credit to Manabu Ikeda and Colossal

philipsrsquo smart light bulb Hue is a web-enabled leD home lighting system that when used with a mobile app lets the users control the color and brightness of lights in their homes it allows you to switch lights on and off remotely set timers and create or change mood lighting

According to the Hue website Hue lights can automatically turn on or change settings as you arrive home or turn everything off when you leave using smartphonersquos gpS or geofencing technology you can also have your lights flash at a specific time with its alarm tool With the timer function hue can turn the lights off flash or change color after a set amount of time ldquoSo you can time your workout with light have your lights flash when your favorite show is about to start or even shine bright pink to let you know when the cupcakes are ready itrsquos also great for telling the kids that playtime is up and itrsquos time for bedrdquo

Also philips employs a service that connects hue lights to over 60 different products and services With Hue you can ldquochange your lightrsquos color to let you know when itrsquos raining outside blink your lights when your favorite sports team starts a new game Randomly change your lightrsquos color with a text message rdquo

Confidentiality security of information still concerns the Sept 2012 white paper ldquoWhat the internet of things (iot) Needs to Become a Realityrdquo highlights the importance of safeguarding the information obtained by iot services and creating mechanisms to ensure confidentiality of information exchanged However the report by American embedded hardware producer freescale and British software design company ARM admits ldquothis is a tough balancing act as there are a whole host of iot-related services designed to leverage data mining

and generate push services the lsquoopt outrsquo mechanism for such services would be subject to the governance of the iotrdquo

in a Nov 2012 blog posted on CNN John Horn the president of RACo Wireless a provider of wireless data solutions for the Machine-to-Machine (M2M) industry talks about threats to the growth of M2M technology which allows machines to exchange information Horn said although the M2M technology (another term for iot) already exists it doesnrsquot invade every aspect of our business and daily lives yet because of two factors long development periods and adoption of 4g connectivity

ldquoMany enterprise M2M solutions require months if not years and a significant financial commitment to get to deployment With those daunting hurdles facing many technology decision makers and despite an average return on investment at around 40 companies are deferring their M2M strategiesrdquo explains Horn He stresses ldquoWe need to get to a point where implementing an M2M strategy involves a matter of hours or days instead of months and yearsrdquo

the shift in the mobile industry towards 3g and 4g networks is another hurdle As Horn observes command-and-control communication links typically need to carry and transmit only a few kilobytes of data for any given node unless high-resolution image processing or video data is involved ldquoAs mobile carriers negotiate with limited spectrum to support 4g rollouts 2g networks are often sacrificed the problem created is that M2M applications not only lose support but they face significant expenses to enter into a 3g or 4g system where their data usage does not come close to justifying the costs not to mention the significant capital investment required for a pricey 3g or 4g compatible devicerdquo he explains

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

Wired into the World Wide Web

247 connectivity is coming for both people and devices

STraTeGY PoINTSA McKinsey Global Institute report says there are about 25 billion people and 9 billion devices currently connected to the Internet and predicts that 2-3 billion more people will have Internet access by 2025

Being connected 247 will be the norm in 2020 and a prerequisite for participation in society a Booz amp Co report finds

Challenges include securing private data and building the digital infrastructure to support the growing number of Internet users

At 730 AM Monday John checks his smartphone for instant messages from his girlfriend in Switzerland Still on his

phone he uploads pictures from his beach trip with friends over the weekend to his social networking account After showering and getting dressed his glasses flash a reminder about his 11 AM meeting with the boss while John is sipping his coffee

it is already 845 AM according to his smart watch which also brings John the latest news of the day He hurries to do some last-minute tweaking of his presentation on his notebook plugging in figures from a marketing report he accessed through his desktop computer As he heads out the door he shuts down the coffee maker stereo and desktop computer with just his voice

today there are about 25 billion people and more than 9 billion devices around the world that are connected to the internet with another 2-3 billion more people set to gain access to the internet by 2025 predicts a McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

As the number of people with Web access is expected to grow to over 5 billion in just over a decade itrsquos the concept of the mobile internet one of the disruptive technologies discussed in the report that will affect how these 5 billion people go about their lives ldquogiving them tools to become potential innovators or entrepreneursrdquo

entire industries will be influenced by Generation C today many like John already live in a hyper-connected world as more and more people and gadgets are being connected seamlessly through the internet Social interactions business meetings educational instruction medical consultations international trade banking shopping and other services can now be done online By 2020 being connected will be the norm and a prerequisite for participation in societymdashat least as far as Booz amp Co is concerned

According to the companyrsquos ldquoRise of generation C implications for the World in 2020rdquo report by the year 2020 an entire generation will have grown up in a primarily digital world Computers the internet mobile devices and social networking sites will become second nature to them By then they will constitute the largest group of consumers worldwide As such entire industries will be influenced by these constantly connected content-centric and community-oriented individuals More importantly internet connectivity bridges the digital divide particularly for the developing world where disparities among urban and rural areas are more pronounced According to the United Nations Conference on trade and Development (UNCtAD) March report on ldquointernet broadband for an inclusive digital societyrdquo broadband connections can impact economic development education healthcare social and cultural enrichment and political engagement

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POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

By Marishka Noelle M Cabrera

HoW We CoNNeCT

Moments are captured through a first-person perspective with the use of Google Glass

Google Glass

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15

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Bringing the Internet to remote parts of the developing world on his way to work John contacts a farmer in Vietnam who will supply raw materials this farmer was able to get in touch with Johnrsquos company because he was alerted through an app on his smartphone about potential markets for his crops And because he was able to double his farmrsquos yield with the help of online video lectures he will be able to meet the demand

the McKinsey report says more than 35 billion citizens in developing economies are expected to have access to the internet in 2025 Moreover it will be possible for entrepreneurs in developing economies to compete globally in online commerce while global players will have a new channel to access fast-growing markets

Project Loon to leapfrog over fiber-optic cables A June 15 Agence france-presse report says google has revealed plans to send balloons to the edge of space with the aim of bringing the internet to the two-thirds of the world population without Web access Scientists from google released up to 30 helium-filled test balloons flying 20 kilometers above Christchurch in New Zealand with antennae linked to ground-based stations in an experimental project named project loon these balloons can beam internet access to the ground at speeds similar to 3g networks or faster if successful the technology might allow countries to leapfrog the expense of installing fiber-optic cables

ldquoit works by ground stations connecting to the local internet infrastructure and beaming signals to the balloons which are self-powered by solar panelsrdquo the report explains ldquothe balloons which once in the stratosphere will be twice as high as commercial

airliners and barely visible to the naked eye are then able to communicate with each other forming a mesh network in the sky Users below have an internet antennae they attach the side of their house which can send and receive data signals from the balloons passing overheadrdquo

According to an earlier Wall Street Journal report google is said to be ldquodeep in a multipronged effort to build and help run wireless networks in emerging markets as part of a plan to connect a billion or more new people to the internetrdquo the tech giant plans to team up with local telecommunications firms from emerging markets to develop the networks as well as the business models to support them

Mobile Internet availability fuels the growth of mobile devices With the increase in internet connectivity the mobile computing industry continues to grow along with other tech innovations such as wearable devices ldquoUbiquitous connectivity and an explosive proliferation of apps are enabling users to go about their daily routines with new ways of knowing perceiving and even interacting with the physical worldrdquo the McKinsey amp Company report says

Wearable computing devices are described in a July 1 piece in Mashable as products aimed ldquoto record our

interactions with the world and then turn that data into something easily understood giving us insights in how we might change our behavior for the betterrdquo Nowadays technological progress has enabled these gadgets to have small cheap sensors that connect to a smartphone or tablet and use ldquothe phonersquos data connection as its path to the cloud where most data processing takes placerdquo google glass is an example of a wearable device with an optical head-mounted display (oHMD) it functions like a smartphone or tabletmdashit receives and sends messages takes photos and videos gives directions and allows users to share and retrieve information over the internetmdashbut is controlled mainly by voice command

tech giants Samsung and Apple are reported to be creating their own hands-free devices says a May 6 article in technology review site teck Comes first Apple Bloomberg says in a february report

has a team of about 100 product designers working on a ldquowristwatch-like device that may perform some of the tasks now handled by the iphone and ipadrdquo Chief executive officer tim Cook is said to be facing pressure from investors amid slowing sales growth and competition from rivals such as Samsung which a new revolutionary gadget could address Nike and health tech firm fitbit are already offering wearable machines for tracking fitness

Bloomberg says the introduction of wearable computing devices may signal a new direction for the consumer electronics industry similar to what the ipad did for the tablet market

Cloud technology and the Internet of things bring services and objects to the connected world Cloud technology can deliver any computer application or service over a network or the internet with minimal local software or processing power required in essence cloud computing involves storing and accessing data and programs over the internet instead of onersquos hard drive as described in a March 13 article in pC Mag ldquoWith an online connection cloud computing can be done anywhere anytimerdquo it says

the McKinsey report adds ldquothe cloud is enabling the explosive growth of internet-based services from search to streaming media to offline storage of personal data (photos books music) as well as the background processing capabilities that enable mobile internet devices to do things like respond to spoken commands to ask for directionsrdquo

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

everyday objects are being equipped with networked sensors and actuators bringing them to the connected world the internet of things is another technology mentioned in the McKinsey report that can impact people business society government and health in a big way this enables machinery shipments infrastructure and devices ldquoto monitor their environment report their status receive instructions and even take action based on the information they receiverdquo

tech expert Jonathan Strickland explains in a video from How Stuff Works how the internet of things can impact the way we live by walking us through the living room of the future He describes how sensors are taking information from real physical objects and uploading it to the internet ldquoitrsquos a world where your environment transforms as you walk through it because technology that you may not even be aware of is monitoring your every moverdquo he says the video shows how objects in

The Industrial revolution meets the Information agePerhaps itrsquos fitting that one of the 20th-century giants of the Industrial Revolution figure a new path to tread in the 21st century

In November 2012 General Electric (GE) announced that the world was ldquoon the threshold of a new era of innovation and change with the rise of the Industrial Internetrdquo a term it coined in a report by Peter C Evans GErsquos director of global strategy and analytics and Marco Annunziata GErsquos chief economist The report it said discusses ldquothe convergence of the global industrial system with the power of advanced computing analytics low-cost sensing and new levels of connectivity permitted by the Internetrdquo

A separate report in the Massachusetts Institute of Technologyrsquos MIT Technology Review also in November 2012 broke down GErsquos vision of the Industrial Internet thusly ldquoThe term coined inside GErsquos RampD division reflects the companyrsquos hope that adding more sensors to machinery will result in a deluge of data that will in turn let companies squeeze more efficiency out of locomotives jet engines MRI machines and other equipment GE sellsrdquo

According to the report GE is set to invest $15 billion in the idea over a three-year period looking at ways for example to sift through all the data to predict when GErsquos jet engines in service will need maintenance And in December 2012 it put some more money where its mouth was with GE Aviation and Accenture announcing the formation of Taleris a joint venture providing airlines and cargo carriers around the world with ldquointelligent operations services focused on improving efficiency by leveraging aircraft performance data prognostics recovery and planning optimization solutionsrdquo

But aviation is not the only area where GE sees potential in marrying machines to analytics and connectivity ldquoThese innovations promise to bring greater speed and efficiency to industries as diverse as aviation rail transportation power generation oil and gas development and health care deliveryrdquo Evans and Annunziata predict in their aforementioned report as summed up in the GE announcement

And the potential appears to be enormous The Industrial Internet according to Evans and Annunziata has the potential to boost average incomes in the United States by 25 to 40 over the next 20 years and to lift growth back to levels not seen since the late 1990s And If the rest of the world achieved just half of the US productivity gains the Industrial Internet could add from $10 to $15 trillion to global GDP ndash the size of todayrsquos US economy ndash over the same period the authors predicted

We will live in a world blanketed by sensors with objects that react to us tell us what we need and customize the environment around us Source How Stuff Works

the room can automatically identify you and tap into a cloud-based profile of your preferences such as room temperature music and lighting the room also knows whether you had a stressful day based on the

calendar app of your phone or the biosensors that detect heart rate and blood pressure

Challenges of being constantly connected Nevertheless the digital infrastructure must be able to support the growing number of devices accessing the internet today cellular networks such as 3g and 4g and Wi-fi are being used in homes offices and public spaces the McKinsey report predicts that over the coming decade 5g cellular networks satellite services and possibly long-range Wi-fi could become the next network advances ldquothese technologies will need to fight for increasingly scarce wireless frequencies but new approaches to dynamically sharing spectrum such as software-defined radios could help ease the crunchrdquo it notes

Meanwhile a June 21 piece in the Harvard Business Review Blog Network raises security concerns over the internet of things it notes ldquoparadoxically the

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

The long road to FacebookAs social media takes hold of the Information Age and sends us hurtling toward moving past bouncing off and occasionally colliding with all sorts of information at warp speed the very idea of a history of social media seems quaint and even dated And yet we are reminded now and then that in order to know to where we are going we need to know from where we came

Canadian journalist and blogger Cendrine Marrouat with some help from Karim Benyagoub provides us with a brief if unofficial history of social media as summed up in a neat infographic that takes us from the origins of the Internet (as Arpanet) in 1969 to its 24-billion population of users by 2012 including milestones and stopovers along the way that a new generation might have been too young to remember (eg the first e-mail was sent in 1971 a company called ICQ was doing instant messaging before AOL Google or Yahoo and Hotmail one of the first web-based commercial e-mail services was taken over by Microsoft in 1997 a year after it was set up by Sabeer Bhatia and Jack Smith as we recall) Image credit Karim Benyagoub and Cendrine Marrouat

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

very principle that makes the [internet of things] so powerful mdash the potential to share data instantly with everyone and everything (every authorized entity that is) mdash creates a huge cybersecurity threatrdquo it will allow data to be shared more widely than ever and in real time

protecting your privacy will be a challenge Since information is shared or stored on a variety of devices it will be hard to keep track of what kind of data is being made available to the public imagine your wearable device for instance sending out information about your location the person you are with which items you bought your health and fitness levels and the like taken together these mobile devices coupled with the internet of things have the potential to build a treasure trove of data about you

without you even knowing it

And then therersquos the psychological cost of being constantly connected in her teD talk in february 2012 Sherry turkle Massachusetts

institute of technology (Mit) professor and director of the Mit initiative on technology and Self argues that ldquothose little deviceshellipare so psychologically powerful that they donrsquot only change what we do they change who we arerdquo She talks about how being constantly connected and attached to our devices can get in the way of us understanding one another and ourselves

in many ways technologies that allow us to build a network of connections in our daily lives have transformed the world for the better And yet these virtual connections can only make sense if real-life relationships are not substituted but cultivated

Sherry Turkle professor at MIT talks about how technology and the need to be connected also has the potential to make us feel more alone

supergraphicWIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The Age of Autonomy Is Coming Soon to a Highway Near You

After the advent of driverless cars will we be ready for pilotless planesBy Victoria Fritz

STRATEGY POINTS

Driverless cars are coming soon and people are looking forward to it according to at least one global survey

Unmanned passenger planes are also on the drawing board and the testing ground

Ghost drivers on the horizon

the age of autonomous transportation is dawning featuring vehicles that can maneuver with reduced or even no human intervention as identified in the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the technology for driverless vehicles is already available or at least fast developing googlersquos driverless cars have logged over 300000 miles since 2010 without accidents (one accident in 2011 occurred when someone was driving) according to a May 13 article posted on the United States-based public Broadcasting Service (pBS) site

While googlersquos cars rack up the mileage BMW toyota and general Motors continue developing their own models Across the Atlantic in Spain Volvo upped googlersquos feat by queuing three cars behind a lorry for 200 kilometers on a busy highway as reported in Forbes in May 2012 in a practice called road-training ie making a train from queued cars)

The promised benefits of driverless technology Driverless technology offers many benefits not the least of which would be increased safety the majority of road accidents collectively responsible for over a million deaths a year according to World Bank figures are caused by human error Up to 90 of road accidents can be attributed to human error as reported in April 2011 on alertdrivingcom Removing man from the equation would theoretically reduce the number of road accidents significantly saving anywhere from 30000 to 150000 lives a year according to the McKinsey report

A special report on driverless cars ldquolook no handsrdquo in the April 20 edition of The Economist

cites decreased congestion as another benefit in a demonstration Volvo packed autonomous cars together in ldquoroad trainsrdquo this increases road capacity while easing traffic Road trains also create an aerodynamic effect that increases fuel efficiency which leads to a reduction in Co2 emissions A 1995 study by the University of Southern California showed that it could improve fuel efficiency by up to 30

freeing up the time allotted for driving also means more time for work or leisure increasing human productivity people can now start working even while on their way to the office What would that do to the official eight-hour workday

According to the McKinsey report the likely major impediments to a quick adoption of this new technology are creating the necessary regulatory frameworks and gaining public support

reducing one risk but begetting others the pBS article examined certain concerns faced by the driverless vehicle concept While it decreases one danger (by reducing or eliminating human error) it presents another ndash the possibility of computer error especially at high speeds At present car sensors are not able to cope with extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain or snow-covered streets

less obvious visual cues such as a construction project could be lost on a driverless vehicle Judgment calls such as when to go at a four-way stop could be tricky for such cars

An April 13 blog post on the Harvard law School communityrsquos discussion site City law discusses the legal aspects of driverless cars So far Nevada California and florida are the only states that have passed laws addressing automated vehicles With its onset driving licensure laws would need an overhaul

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

HoW We TraveL

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

the traffic safety governing body would need to promulgate new standards to address the technology and software it poses questions if a self-driving car hits a pedestrian who is liable

Carmakers already working on driverless cars Despite the lack of a regulatory framework according to the McKinsey report the following large carmakers are already developing their own versions general Motors toyota Mercedes-Benz Audi BMW and Volvo

Machine vision is a key capability in achieving vehicle autonomy with other systems working in tandem (for a quick review of the technologies involved refer to ldquothe Car of the future A thinking green Machinerdquo in the March 26 2012 issue of The CenSEI Report)

Costs prohibitive now but coming down drastically later Chunka Mui a contributor at Forbes magazine analyzed the obstacles to public acceptance of the driverless car in a January 2013 piece He listed cost as prohibitive at present saying estimated cost of each google driverless car is more than US$300000 However using the trajectory of the cost of a gigabyte of memory as an analogue ndash in 1981 a gigabyte cost US$300000 going down to US$10000 a decade later and then down to US$10 another 10 years later and now it costs less than 10 cents ndash he predicts that driverless technology will see the same drastic reduction in cost

Mui also looked into the question of public adoption people will be reluctant to let go of the steering wheel But he believes that once society sees the benefits people will come to trust the technology

Public trust still lacking An April 20 Christian Science Monitor blog post by Richard Read also encouraged people in the know to talk

with others about the driverless car in order to speed up development Read was recounting tips given during the Society of Automotive engineersrsquo World Congress in Detroit Michigan that week participants agreed the technology is already here but also identified the main impediment as lack of public trust first people need to become aware of autonomous vehicles Second they need to be convinced of their reliability

to get a better idea of the public pulse on this matter Cisco conducted a survey earlier this year and published its results in May on gigaomcom the global survey had 1514 respondents aged 18 and older of the total number surveyed across the globe 57 said they would ride a driverless car as reported by Kevin fitchard in his May 14 blog post in gigaoM discussing the Cisco survey

Countries however varied widely in their respective national responses Brazil topped the charts with a 95 approval rating followed by india and China Japan was a low 28 likewise western european countries were lukewarm in the United States where many prototypes of driverless technology are being tested the approval rating was 60 above the global average

fitchard himself acknowledged unwllingness to give up total control of the car saying he was more comfortable with some autonomy

CISCo GLoBaL SUrveYPUBLIC aCCePTaNCe oF DrIverLeSS CarS

Table from ldquoCisco survey Consumers are getting comfortable with the idea of the driverless carrdquo Kevin Fitchard as posted on GigaoM May 14 2013

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

26

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

25

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

CAPTION YouTube

He also questioned the veracity of an industry-sponsored survey saying that Cisco even though it wasnrsquot general Motors or google still had a stake in the matter But his observation of the generally thorough nature of Cisco surveys put his own doubts to rest

When will the future arrive there is some discussion as to when this new technology will be available to the mass market the panel at SAe sees this happening in 2025 according to a Wall Street Journal April 17 online article general Motors was reported as predicting the public debut of driverless cars in 2020 as reported in the aforementioned issue of The CenSEI Report google makes the boldest prediction and is hoping to offer this technology to the public by 2018

Ghost pilots in the sky

Whenever the driverless car gets here do you think yoursquoll be ready for airplanes that pilot themselves

A team at the Massachusetts institute of technology have developed an autonomous robotic plane capable of flying indoors without aid of a remote control device this could contribute significantly to the development of an pilotless passenger airplane Click on the image below for a video of the autonomous robotic plane in action

Getting a charge from driving

Autonomous or automatic to be more accurate charging is another way of increasing efficiency on the road Ever since electric vehicles debuted on the market the main obstacle has always been the battery ndash the cost the size the storage capacity Engineers are now working on solving that problem by creating an automatic charging system that is one built into the road Back in 2010 this system was launched in London as discussed in an article on Englandrsquos autocar website The system design is shown in the following graphic

An article appearing in the BBCrsquos Future section in March 2012 also mentions this ldquowireless highwayrdquo as a way to address electric car motoristsrsquo range anxiety (fear of losing power on the road) More recently on June 18 Business Insider ran an article that mentions Volvorsquos own project in partnership with Swedish power company Alstom to create a road that charges vehicles as they drive over it

1 - Power

2 - Transmitter

4 - Receiver Pad

5 - System

6 - Battery

3 - Wireless Electricity amp Data

Flying by the numbersWhen commercial flying was first introduced people took a long time to get over their fear of flying When they realized it was relatively safe they hopped on planes in droves Would people be willing to ride a pilotless plane as well

A November 2012 piece in The Economist looked into the possibility of pilotless aircraft taking off even before driverless cars and conducted its own survey on whether its readers thought pilot-less aircraft would take off before driverless cars This writerrsquos own misgivings notwithstanding the survey results indicate that an overwhelming 70 of respondents believe the pilotless plane will happen even before the driverless car

Most of the required technology such as autopilot or self-landing is already there the Economist piece observed The afore-mentioned ASTRAEA tests are about ascertaining whether these capabilities can be achieved without a pilot in the cockpit and in compliance with existing rules of air travel

you voted NoTotal votes 8486

Voting opened on Nov 23rd 2012

Graphic from The Economist poll ldquoWill pilotless airplanes takeoff before driverless carsrdquo generated from writerrsquos own participation in survey

in June this year a trial on pilotless passenger airplanes was conducted in the United Kingdom as reported on the site of The Engineer magazine the age of unmanned aircraft is drawing near the report declared qualifying that this was apart from already present military drones and remotely operated miniature vehicles British engineers announced that an adapted conventional

Jetstream passenger plane flew 500 miles without aid of a human operator under the aegis of AStRAeA the UKrsquos cross-industry project to develop technology and regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or systems (UAS) the report consisted of an interview where experts spoke at length about this new technologyrsquos issues

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

27

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

29

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

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33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

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35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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Page 5: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

9

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

then you check your weight via your Wi-fi-enabled body scale Withings body scale has an online progress-tracking system that monitors your weight heart rate as well as the temperature of the room yoursquore in and that roomrsquos air quality Data is sent from the scale to the Withings app on your smartphone where it can be tracked for your own personal record or to share later with a physician or family members

you decide you need to burn more calories by running so you put on your Armour 39 gear consisting of a chest strap that sends basic performance measurements ndash speed intensity heart rate calories burned and a record of past performances ndash either to your Armour 39 watch or to an ioS app for your iphone to pick up later (According to a february Mashable article about the Armour 39 system its developer American sports clothing manufacturer Under Armour is working on developing touchscreen-capable t-shirts but that product is still years away)

The smart bathroom customizes your experience Meanwhile your brother goes to the bathroom and the toilet seat greets him ldquoHellordquo and plays his favorite Beatles song before he sits on it the Numi toilet Wisconsin-based manufacturer Kohlerrsquos most advanced toilet has a Bluetooth receiver for users to stream audio from their mobile devices an SD card to access custom playlists or personalized welcome messages a USB port for software updates according to an April Mashable article on the latest upgrade to the system

sensors that helps track patientsrsquo medication-taking behavior and monitor how the body is responding to the medicine the information from Digital Medicines could be shared with family members clinicians and other caregivers allowing for better informed treatment decisions these digital medicines can be used in heart failure central nervous system and transplant care

ldquoAs a result you could tell if yoursquore taking your medicines as prescribed while at the same time receiving unprecedented feedback on your physiological response to treatment this offers a path to improved healthrdquo said the company ldquoCurrently over 50 of people donrsquot get full benefit from the pharmaceuticals they use because they take the wrong dose or have trouble consistently following their prescriptionsrdquo it noted

Users can change colors of Philips Hue bulbs using mobile device YouTubeAutom is a friendly robot that helps you diet Intuitive Automata

from the toilet he can move to the sink where his smart Beam Brush ndash the worldrsquos first smart toothbrush ndash tracks his brushing habits and reports them to a smartphone app or directly to his dentist Apart from that the toothbrush will inform you when itrsquos time to replace the head and even let you order new ones directly from your phone

Digital pills monitor your treatment Meanwhile your aunt receives a call from her doctor reminding her to take her heart medication the doctor will know if your aunt is taking medication as prescribed and as scheduled through a pill with tiny sensors and transmitters that your aunt swallowed

According to the website of California-based company proteus Digital Health the company is working to create digital medicines or ingestible

According to the aforementioned McKinsey report internet of things technology can have a direct impact on human lives and health for example it says doctors now perform ldquocapsule endoscopyrdquo using a pill-shaped micro-camera with wireless data communication capabilities that travels through a patientrsquos digestive system and transmits images to a computer sensors that read the vital signs of patients at home

Changing hue on cue At the end of your eventful day you enter the bedroom and the lights automatically turn themselves on through your smartphone you adjust the color to vibrant blue white Before long the light flashes indicating that itrsquos time for you to sleep

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

you gotta see this

99 bottles of beer on the wall 99 bottles IS the wall In a June 28 dispatch the Seattle Washington-based environment news and commentary site Grist called our attention to a Buddhist temple complex built from recycled beer bottles as r eported in a feature in the United Kingdom-based Telegraph

According to the Telegraph feature the complex called Wat Lan Kuad (ldquoThe Temple of a Million Bottlesrdquo) in Thailandrsquos Sisaket province near the border with Cambodia actually uses 15 million green Heineken and brown Chang bottles in constituting the main temple a crematorium

prayer rooms a hall water tower tourist bathrooms and monksrsquo quarters consisting of several small bungalows raised off the ground along with mosaics of Buddha created with recycled bottle caps

To be sure the complex is not just bottles as the buildings do have a concrete core wersquore reminded but the point shouldnrsquot be lost on us that there might be something we can do with all our San Miguel beer bottles after wersquove drained them thoroughly And perhaps we can add our Ginebra San Miguel and Tanduay Rhum bottles to the mix (which should come up to a good number given that the Philippines is reportedly the worldrsquos biggest consumer of gin and its third-largest consumer of rum per this recent infographic from The Economist)

The sprawling art of one acrylic pen Christopher Jobsonrsquos Colossal blog which deals primarily with matters of non-digital art and visual ingenuity calls our attention to Japanese acrylic-pen artist Manabu Ikeda in his June 27 entry ldquoMaster of Pen and Ink The Monumental Drawings of Manabu Ikedardquo

He describes Ikedarsquos method as follows ldquo(A) blank paper canvas larger than a person spread before him a small acrylic pen in his hand and hundreds of days to fill with faintly imperceptible progress from a mind brimming with explosive creativity hellip works in areas measuring roughly 4Prime square spending eight hours a day often for years on a single drawing that can eventually dominate an entire wall hellip complete visual cacophony that somehow results in a single cohesive image The most unbelievable aspect being that Ikeda has no idea what the final artwork will look like but instead explores each work organically from day to day as he progresses inch by inchrdquo

The blog entry includes samples of and details from some of his work including the dimensions of the original works some of which measure 3rsquo x 4rsquo 65rsquo x 65rsquo or 6rsquo x 11rsquo

Wat Lan Kuad the temple that Chang (and Heineken)

Photo credit to Mark Fischer and Gristorg

A detail from Manabu Ikedarsquos 6rsquo x 11rsquo Foretoken

Image credit to Manabu Ikeda and Colossal

philipsrsquo smart light bulb Hue is a web-enabled leD home lighting system that when used with a mobile app lets the users control the color and brightness of lights in their homes it allows you to switch lights on and off remotely set timers and create or change mood lighting

According to the Hue website Hue lights can automatically turn on or change settings as you arrive home or turn everything off when you leave using smartphonersquos gpS or geofencing technology you can also have your lights flash at a specific time with its alarm tool With the timer function hue can turn the lights off flash or change color after a set amount of time ldquoSo you can time your workout with light have your lights flash when your favorite show is about to start or even shine bright pink to let you know when the cupcakes are ready itrsquos also great for telling the kids that playtime is up and itrsquos time for bedrdquo

Also philips employs a service that connects hue lights to over 60 different products and services With Hue you can ldquochange your lightrsquos color to let you know when itrsquos raining outside blink your lights when your favorite sports team starts a new game Randomly change your lightrsquos color with a text message rdquo

Confidentiality security of information still concerns the Sept 2012 white paper ldquoWhat the internet of things (iot) Needs to Become a Realityrdquo highlights the importance of safeguarding the information obtained by iot services and creating mechanisms to ensure confidentiality of information exchanged However the report by American embedded hardware producer freescale and British software design company ARM admits ldquothis is a tough balancing act as there are a whole host of iot-related services designed to leverage data mining

and generate push services the lsquoopt outrsquo mechanism for such services would be subject to the governance of the iotrdquo

in a Nov 2012 blog posted on CNN John Horn the president of RACo Wireless a provider of wireless data solutions for the Machine-to-Machine (M2M) industry talks about threats to the growth of M2M technology which allows machines to exchange information Horn said although the M2M technology (another term for iot) already exists it doesnrsquot invade every aspect of our business and daily lives yet because of two factors long development periods and adoption of 4g connectivity

ldquoMany enterprise M2M solutions require months if not years and a significant financial commitment to get to deployment With those daunting hurdles facing many technology decision makers and despite an average return on investment at around 40 companies are deferring their M2M strategiesrdquo explains Horn He stresses ldquoWe need to get to a point where implementing an M2M strategy involves a matter of hours or days instead of months and yearsrdquo

the shift in the mobile industry towards 3g and 4g networks is another hurdle As Horn observes command-and-control communication links typically need to carry and transmit only a few kilobytes of data for any given node unless high-resolution image processing or video data is involved ldquoAs mobile carriers negotiate with limited spectrum to support 4g rollouts 2g networks are often sacrificed the problem created is that M2M applications not only lose support but they face significant expenses to enter into a 3g or 4g system where their data usage does not come close to justifying the costs not to mention the significant capital investment required for a pricey 3g or 4g compatible devicerdquo he explains

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

Wired into the World Wide Web

247 connectivity is coming for both people and devices

STraTeGY PoINTSA McKinsey Global Institute report says there are about 25 billion people and 9 billion devices currently connected to the Internet and predicts that 2-3 billion more people will have Internet access by 2025

Being connected 247 will be the norm in 2020 and a prerequisite for participation in society a Booz amp Co report finds

Challenges include securing private data and building the digital infrastructure to support the growing number of Internet users

At 730 AM Monday John checks his smartphone for instant messages from his girlfriend in Switzerland Still on his

phone he uploads pictures from his beach trip with friends over the weekend to his social networking account After showering and getting dressed his glasses flash a reminder about his 11 AM meeting with the boss while John is sipping his coffee

it is already 845 AM according to his smart watch which also brings John the latest news of the day He hurries to do some last-minute tweaking of his presentation on his notebook plugging in figures from a marketing report he accessed through his desktop computer As he heads out the door he shuts down the coffee maker stereo and desktop computer with just his voice

today there are about 25 billion people and more than 9 billion devices around the world that are connected to the internet with another 2-3 billion more people set to gain access to the internet by 2025 predicts a McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

As the number of people with Web access is expected to grow to over 5 billion in just over a decade itrsquos the concept of the mobile internet one of the disruptive technologies discussed in the report that will affect how these 5 billion people go about their lives ldquogiving them tools to become potential innovators or entrepreneursrdquo

entire industries will be influenced by Generation C today many like John already live in a hyper-connected world as more and more people and gadgets are being connected seamlessly through the internet Social interactions business meetings educational instruction medical consultations international trade banking shopping and other services can now be done online By 2020 being connected will be the norm and a prerequisite for participation in societymdashat least as far as Booz amp Co is concerned

According to the companyrsquos ldquoRise of generation C implications for the World in 2020rdquo report by the year 2020 an entire generation will have grown up in a primarily digital world Computers the internet mobile devices and social networking sites will become second nature to them By then they will constitute the largest group of consumers worldwide As such entire industries will be influenced by these constantly connected content-centric and community-oriented individuals More importantly internet connectivity bridges the digital divide particularly for the developing world where disparities among urban and rural areas are more pronounced According to the United Nations Conference on trade and Development (UNCtAD) March report on ldquointernet broadband for an inclusive digital societyrdquo broadband connections can impact economic development education healthcare social and cultural enrichment and political engagement

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13

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POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

By Marishka Noelle M Cabrera

HoW We CoNNeCT

Moments are captured through a first-person perspective with the use of Google Glass

Google Glass

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

15

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Bringing the Internet to remote parts of the developing world on his way to work John contacts a farmer in Vietnam who will supply raw materials this farmer was able to get in touch with Johnrsquos company because he was alerted through an app on his smartphone about potential markets for his crops And because he was able to double his farmrsquos yield with the help of online video lectures he will be able to meet the demand

the McKinsey report says more than 35 billion citizens in developing economies are expected to have access to the internet in 2025 Moreover it will be possible for entrepreneurs in developing economies to compete globally in online commerce while global players will have a new channel to access fast-growing markets

Project Loon to leapfrog over fiber-optic cables A June 15 Agence france-presse report says google has revealed plans to send balloons to the edge of space with the aim of bringing the internet to the two-thirds of the world population without Web access Scientists from google released up to 30 helium-filled test balloons flying 20 kilometers above Christchurch in New Zealand with antennae linked to ground-based stations in an experimental project named project loon these balloons can beam internet access to the ground at speeds similar to 3g networks or faster if successful the technology might allow countries to leapfrog the expense of installing fiber-optic cables

ldquoit works by ground stations connecting to the local internet infrastructure and beaming signals to the balloons which are self-powered by solar panelsrdquo the report explains ldquothe balloons which once in the stratosphere will be twice as high as commercial

airliners and barely visible to the naked eye are then able to communicate with each other forming a mesh network in the sky Users below have an internet antennae they attach the side of their house which can send and receive data signals from the balloons passing overheadrdquo

According to an earlier Wall Street Journal report google is said to be ldquodeep in a multipronged effort to build and help run wireless networks in emerging markets as part of a plan to connect a billion or more new people to the internetrdquo the tech giant plans to team up with local telecommunications firms from emerging markets to develop the networks as well as the business models to support them

Mobile Internet availability fuels the growth of mobile devices With the increase in internet connectivity the mobile computing industry continues to grow along with other tech innovations such as wearable devices ldquoUbiquitous connectivity and an explosive proliferation of apps are enabling users to go about their daily routines with new ways of knowing perceiving and even interacting with the physical worldrdquo the McKinsey amp Company report says

Wearable computing devices are described in a July 1 piece in Mashable as products aimed ldquoto record our

interactions with the world and then turn that data into something easily understood giving us insights in how we might change our behavior for the betterrdquo Nowadays technological progress has enabled these gadgets to have small cheap sensors that connect to a smartphone or tablet and use ldquothe phonersquos data connection as its path to the cloud where most data processing takes placerdquo google glass is an example of a wearable device with an optical head-mounted display (oHMD) it functions like a smartphone or tabletmdashit receives and sends messages takes photos and videos gives directions and allows users to share and retrieve information over the internetmdashbut is controlled mainly by voice command

tech giants Samsung and Apple are reported to be creating their own hands-free devices says a May 6 article in technology review site teck Comes first Apple Bloomberg says in a february report

has a team of about 100 product designers working on a ldquowristwatch-like device that may perform some of the tasks now handled by the iphone and ipadrdquo Chief executive officer tim Cook is said to be facing pressure from investors amid slowing sales growth and competition from rivals such as Samsung which a new revolutionary gadget could address Nike and health tech firm fitbit are already offering wearable machines for tracking fitness

Bloomberg says the introduction of wearable computing devices may signal a new direction for the consumer electronics industry similar to what the ipad did for the tablet market

Cloud technology and the Internet of things bring services and objects to the connected world Cloud technology can deliver any computer application or service over a network or the internet with minimal local software or processing power required in essence cloud computing involves storing and accessing data and programs over the internet instead of onersquos hard drive as described in a March 13 article in pC Mag ldquoWith an online connection cloud computing can be done anywhere anytimerdquo it says

the McKinsey report adds ldquothe cloud is enabling the explosive growth of internet-based services from search to streaming media to offline storage of personal data (photos books music) as well as the background processing capabilities that enable mobile internet devices to do things like respond to spoken commands to ask for directionsrdquo

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

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everyday objects are being equipped with networked sensors and actuators bringing them to the connected world the internet of things is another technology mentioned in the McKinsey report that can impact people business society government and health in a big way this enables machinery shipments infrastructure and devices ldquoto monitor their environment report their status receive instructions and even take action based on the information they receiverdquo

tech expert Jonathan Strickland explains in a video from How Stuff Works how the internet of things can impact the way we live by walking us through the living room of the future He describes how sensors are taking information from real physical objects and uploading it to the internet ldquoitrsquos a world where your environment transforms as you walk through it because technology that you may not even be aware of is monitoring your every moverdquo he says the video shows how objects in

The Industrial revolution meets the Information agePerhaps itrsquos fitting that one of the 20th-century giants of the Industrial Revolution figure a new path to tread in the 21st century

In November 2012 General Electric (GE) announced that the world was ldquoon the threshold of a new era of innovation and change with the rise of the Industrial Internetrdquo a term it coined in a report by Peter C Evans GErsquos director of global strategy and analytics and Marco Annunziata GErsquos chief economist The report it said discusses ldquothe convergence of the global industrial system with the power of advanced computing analytics low-cost sensing and new levels of connectivity permitted by the Internetrdquo

A separate report in the Massachusetts Institute of Technologyrsquos MIT Technology Review also in November 2012 broke down GErsquos vision of the Industrial Internet thusly ldquoThe term coined inside GErsquos RampD division reflects the companyrsquos hope that adding more sensors to machinery will result in a deluge of data that will in turn let companies squeeze more efficiency out of locomotives jet engines MRI machines and other equipment GE sellsrdquo

According to the report GE is set to invest $15 billion in the idea over a three-year period looking at ways for example to sift through all the data to predict when GErsquos jet engines in service will need maintenance And in December 2012 it put some more money where its mouth was with GE Aviation and Accenture announcing the formation of Taleris a joint venture providing airlines and cargo carriers around the world with ldquointelligent operations services focused on improving efficiency by leveraging aircraft performance data prognostics recovery and planning optimization solutionsrdquo

But aviation is not the only area where GE sees potential in marrying machines to analytics and connectivity ldquoThese innovations promise to bring greater speed and efficiency to industries as diverse as aviation rail transportation power generation oil and gas development and health care deliveryrdquo Evans and Annunziata predict in their aforementioned report as summed up in the GE announcement

And the potential appears to be enormous The Industrial Internet according to Evans and Annunziata has the potential to boost average incomes in the United States by 25 to 40 over the next 20 years and to lift growth back to levels not seen since the late 1990s And If the rest of the world achieved just half of the US productivity gains the Industrial Internet could add from $10 to $15 trillion to global GDP ndash the size of todayrsquos US economy ndash over the same period the authors predicted

We will live in a world blanketed by sensors with objects that react to us tell us what we need and customize the environment around us Source How Stuff Works

the room can automatically identify you and tap into a cloud-based profile of your preferences such as room temperature music and lighting the room also knows whether you had a stressful day based on the

calendar app of your phone or the biosensors that detect heart rate and blood pressure

Challenges of being constantly connected Nevertheless the digital infrastructure must be able to support the growing number of devices accessing the internet today cellular networks such as 3g and 4g and Wi-fi are being used in homes offices and public spaces the McKinsey report predicts that over the coming decade 5g cellular networks satellite services and possibly long-range Wi-fi could become the next network advances ldquothese technologies will need to fight for increasingly scarce wireless frequencies but new approaches to dynamically sharing spectrum such as software-defined radios could help ease the crunchrdquo it notes

Meanwhile a June 21 piece in the Harvard Business Review Blog Network raises security concerns over the internet of things it notes ldquoparadoxically the

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

The long road to FacebookAs social media takes hold of the Information Age and sends us hurtling toward moving past bouncing off and occasionally colliding with all sorts of information at warp speed the very idea of a history of social media seems quaint and even dated And yet we are reminded now and then that in order to know to where we are going we need to know from where we came

Canadian journalist and blogger Cendrine Marrouat with some help from Karim Benyagoub provides us with a brief if unofficial history of social media as summed up in a neat infographic that takes us from the origins of the Internet (as Arpanet) in 1969 to its 24-billion population of users by 2012 including milestones and stopovers along the way that a new generation might have been too young to remember (eg the first e-mail was sent in 1971 a company called ICQ was doing instant messaging before AOL Google or Yahoo and Hotmail one of the first web-based commercial e-mail services was taken over by Microsoft in 1997 a year after it was set up by Sabeer Bhatia and Jack Smith as we recall) Image credit Karim Benyagoub and Cendrine Marrouat

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

very principle that makes the [internet of things] so powerful mdash the potential to share data instantly with everyone and everything (every authorized entity that is) mdash creates a huge cybersecurity threatrdquo it will allow data to be shared more widely than ever and in real time

protecting your privacy will be a challenge Since information is shared or stored on a variety of devices it will be hard to keep track of what kind of data is being made available to the public imagine your wearable device for instance sending out information about your location the person you are with which items you bought your health and fitness levels and the like taken together these mobile devices coupled with the internet of things have the potential to build a treasure trove of data about you

without you even knowing it

And then therersquos the psychological cost of being constantly connected in her teD talk in february 2012 Sherry turkle Massachusetts

institute of technology (Mit) professor and director of the Mit initiative on technology and Self argues that ldquothose little deviceshellipare so psychologically powerful that they donrsquot only change what we do they change who we arerdquo She talks about how being constantly connected and attached to our devices can get in the way of us understanding one another and ourselves

in many ways technologies that allow us to build a network of connections in our daily lives have transformed the world for the better And yet these virtual connections can only make sense if real-life relationships are not substituted but cultivated

Sherry Turkle professor at MIT talks about how technology and the need to be connected also has the potential to make us feel more alone

supergraphicWIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The Age of Autonomy Is Coming Soon to a Highway Near You

After the advent of driverless cars will we be ready for pilotless planesBy Victoria Fritz

STRATEGY POINTS

Driverless cars are coming soon and people are looking forward to it according to at least one global survey

Unmanned passenger planes are also on the drawing board and the testing ground

Ghost drivers on the horizon

the age of autonomous transportation is dawning featuring vehicles that can maneuver with reduced or even no human intervention as identified in the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the technology for driverless vehicles is already available or at least fast developing googlersquos driverless cars have logged over 300000 miles since 2010 without accidents (one accident in 2011 occurred when someone was driving) according to a May 13 article posted on the United States-based public Broadcasting Service (pBS) site

While googlersquos cars rack up the mileage BMW toyota and general Motors continue developing their own models Across the Atlantic in Spain Volvo upped googlersquos feat by queuing three cars behind a lorry for 200 kilometers on a busy highway as reported in Forbes in May 2012 in a practice called road-training ie making a train from queued cars)

The promised benefits of driverless technology Driverless technology offers many benefits not the least of which would be increased safety the majority of road accidents collectively responsible for over a million deaths a year according to World Bank figures are caused by human error Up to 90 of road accidents can be attributed to human error as reported in April 2011 on alertdrivingcom Removing man from the equation would theoretically reduce the number of road accidents significantly saving anywhere from 30000 to 150000 lives a year according to the McKinsey report

A special report on driverless cars ldquolook no handsrdquo in the April 20 edition of The Economist

cites decreased congestion as another benefit in a demonstration Volvo packed autonomous cars together in ldquoroad trainsrdquo this increases road capacity while easing traffic Road trains also create an aerodynamic effect that increases fuel efficiency which leads to a reduction in Co2 emissions A 1995 study by the University of Southern California showed that it could improve fuel efficiency by up to 30

freeing up the time allotted for driving also means more time for work or leisure increasing human productivity people can now start working even while on their way to the office What would that do to the official eight-hour workday

According to the McKinsey report the likely major impediments to a quick adoption of this new technology are creating the necessary regulatory frameworks and gaining public support

reducing one risk but begetting others the pBS article examined certain concerns faced by the driverless vehicle concept While it decreases one danger (by reducing or eliminating human error) it presents another ndash the possibility of computer error especially at high speeds At present car sensors are not able to cope with extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain or snow-covered streets

less obvious visual cues such as a construction project could be lost on a driverless vehicle Judgment calls such as when to go at a four-way stop could be tricky for such cars

An April 13 blog post on the Harvard law School communityrsquos discussion site City law discusses the legal aspects of driverless cars So far Nevada California and florida are the only states that have passed laws addressing automated vehicles With its onset driving licensure laws would need an overhaul

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

HoW We TraveL

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

the traffic safety governing body would need to promulgate new standards to address the technology and software it poses questions if a self-driving car hits a pedestrian who is liable

Carmakers already working on driverless cars Despite the lack of a regulatory framework according to the McKinsey report the following large carmakers are already developing their own versions general Motors toyota Mercedes-Benz Audi BMW and Volvo

Machine vision is a key capability in achieving vehicle autonomy with other systems working in tandem (for a quick review of the technologies involved refer to ldquothe Car of the future A thinking green Machinerdquo in the March 26 2012 issue of The CenSEI Report)

Costs prohibitive now but coming down drastically later Chunka Mui a contributor at Forbes magazine analyzed the obstacles to public acceptance of the driverless car in a January 2013 piece He listed cost as prohibitive at present saying estimated cost of each google driverless car is more than US$300000 However using the trajectory of the cost of a gigabyte of memory as an analogue ndash in 1981 a gigabyte cost US$300000 going down to US$10000 a decade later and then down to US$10 another 10 years later and now it costs less than 10 cents ndash he predicts that driverless technology will see the same drastic reduction in cost

Mui also looked into the question of public adoption people will be reluctant to let go of the steering wheel But he believes that once society sees the benefits people will come to trust the technology

Public trust still lacking An April 20 Christian Science Monitor blog post by Richard Read also encouraged people in the know to talk

with others about the driverless car in order to speed up development Read was recounting tips given during the Society of Automotive engineersrsquo World Congress in Detroit Michigan that week participants agreed the technology is already here but also identified the main impediment as lack of public trust first people need to become aware of autonomous vehicles Second they need to be convinced of their reliability

to get a better idea of the public pulse on this matter Cisco conducted a survey earlier this year and published its results in May on gigaomcom the global survey had 1514 respondents aged 18 and older of the total number surveyed across the globe 57 said they would ride a driverless car as reported by Kevin fitchard in his May 14 blog post in gigaoM discussing the Cisco survey

Countries however varied widely in their respective national responses Brazil topped the charts with a 95 approval rating followed by india and China Japan was a low 28 likewise western european countries were lukewarm in the United States where many prototypes of driverless technology are being tested the approval rating was 60 above the global average

fitchard himself acknowledged unwllingness to give up total control of the car saying he was more comfortable with some autonomy

CISCo GLoBaL SUrveYPUBLIC aCCePTaNCe oF DrIverLeSS CarS

Table from ldquoCisco survey Consumers are getting comfortable with the idea of the driverless carrdquo Kevin Fitchard as posted on GigaoM May 14 2013

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

26

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

25

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

CAPTION YouTube

He also questioned the veracity of an industry-sponsored survey saying that Cisco even though it wasnrsquot general Motors or google still had a stake in the matter But his observation of the generally thorough nature of Cisco surveys put his own doubts to rest

When will the future arrive there is some discussion as to when this new technology will be available to the mass market the panel at SAe sees this happening in 2025 according to a Wall Street Journal April 17 online article general Motors was reported as predicting the public debut of driverless cars in 2020 as reported in the aforementioned issue of The CenSEI Report google makes the boldest prediction and is hoping to offer this technology to the public by 2018

Ghost pilots in the sky

Whenever the driverless car gets here do you think yoursquoll be ready for airplanes that pilot themselves

A team at the Massachusetts institute of technology have developed an autonomous robotic plane capable of flying indoors without aid of a remote control device this could contribute significantly to the development of an pilotless passenger airplane Click on the image below for a video of the autonomous robotic plane in action

Getting a charge from driving

Autonomous or automatic to be more accurate charging is another way of increasing efficiency on the road Ever since electric vehicles debuted on the market the main obstacle has always been the battery ndash the cost the size the storage capacity Engineers are now working on solving that problem by creating an automatic charging system that is one built into the road Back in 2010 this system was launched in London as discussed in an article on Englandrsquos autocar website The system design is shown in the following graphic

An article appearing in the BBCrsquos Future section in March 2012 also mentions this ldquowireless highwayrdquo as a way to address electric car motoristsrsquo range anxiety (fear of losing power on the road) More recently on June 18 Business Insider ran an article that mentions Volvorsquos own project in partnership with Swedish power company Alstom to create a road that charges vehicles as they drive over it

1 - Power

2 - Transmitter

4 - Receiver Pad

5 - System

6 - Battery

3 - Wireless Electricity amp Data

Flying by the numbersWhen commercial flying was first introduced people took a long time to get over their fear of flying When they realized it was relatively safe they hopped on planes in droves Would people be willing to ride a pilotless plane as well

A November 2012 piece in The Economist looked into the possibility of pilotless aircraft taking off even before driverless cars and conducted its own survey on whether its readers thought pilot-less aircraft would take off before driverless cars This writerrsquos own misgivings notwithstanding the survey results indicate that an overwhelming 70 of respondents believe the pilotless plane will happen even before the driverless car

Most of the required technology such as autopilot or self-landing is already there the Economist piece observed The afore-mentioned ASTRAEA tests are about ascertaining whether these capabilities can be achieved without a pilot in the cockpit and in compliance with existing rules of air travel

you voted NoTotal votes 8486

Voting opened on Nov 23rd 2012

Graphic from The Economist poll ldquoWill pilotless airplanes takeoff before driverless carsrdquo generated from writerrsquos own participation in survey

in June this year a trial on pilotless passenger airplanes was conducted in the United Kingdom as reported on the site of The Engineer magazine the age of unmanned aircraft is drawing near the report declared qualifying that this was apart from already present military drones and remotely operated miniature vehicles British engineers announced that an adapted conventional

Jetstream passenger plane flew 500 miles without aid of a human operator under the aegis of AStRAeA the UKrsquos cross-industry project to develop technology and regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or systems (UAS) the report consisted of an interview where experts spoke at length about this new technologyrsquos issues

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

27

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

29

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

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33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

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35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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Page 6: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

you gotta see this

99 bottles of beer on the wall 99 bottles IS the wall In a June 28 dispatch the Seattle Washington-based environment news and commentary site Grist called our attention to a Buddhist temple complex built from recycled beer bottles as r eported in a feature in the United Kingdom-based Telegraph

According to the Telegraph feature the complex called Wat Lan Kuad (ldquoThe Temple of a Million Bottlesrdquo) in Thailandrsquos Sisaket province near the border with Cambodia actually uses 15 million green Heineken and brown Chang bottles in constituting the main temple a crematorium

prayer rooms a hall water tower tourist bathrooms and monksrsquo quarters consisting of several small bungalows raised off the ground along with mosaics of Buddha created with recycled bottle caps

To be sure the complex is not just bottles as the buildings do have a concrete core wersquore reminded but the point shouldnrsquot be lost on us that there might be something we can do with all our San Miguel beer bottles after wersquove drained them thoroughly And perhaps we can add our Ginebra San Miguel and Tanduay Rhum bottles to the mix (which should come up to a good number given that the Philippines is reportedly the worldrsquos biggest consumer of gin and its third-largest consumer of rum per this recent infographic from The Economist)

The sprawling art of one acrylic pen Christopher Jobsonrsquos Colossal blog which deals primarily with matters of non-digital art and visual ingenuity calls our attention to Japanese acrylic-pen artist Manabu Ikeda in his June 27 entry ldquoMaster of Pen and Ink The Monumental Drawings of Manabu Ikedardquo

He describes Ikedarsquos method as follows ldquo(A) blank paper canvas larger than a person spread before him a small acrylic pen in his hand and hundreds of days to fill with faintly imperceptible progress from a mind brimming with explosive creativity hellip works in areas measuring roughly 4Prime square spending eight hours a day often for years on a single drawing that can eventually dominate an entire wall hellip complete visual cacophony that somehow results in a single cohesive image The most unbelievable aspect being that Ikeda has no idea what the final artwork will look like but instead explores each work organically from day to day as he progresses inch by inchrdquo

The blog entry includes samples of and details from some of his work including the dimensions of the original works some of which measure 3rsquo x 4rsquo 65rsquo x 65rsquo or 6rsquo x 11rsquo

Wat Lan Kuad the temple that Chang (and Heineken)

Photo credit to Mark Fischer and Gristorg

A detail from Manabu Ikedarsquos 6rsquo x 11rsquo Foretoken

Image credit to Manabu Ikeda and Colossal

philipsrsquo smart light bulb Hue is a web-enabled leD home lighting system that when used with a mobile app lets the users control the color and brightness of lights in their homes it allows you to switch lights on and off remotely set timers and create or change mood lighting

According to the Hue website Hue lights can automatically turn on or change settings as you arrive home or turn everything off when you leave using smartphonersquos gpS or geofencing technology you can also have your lights flash at a specific time with its alarm tool With the timer function hue can turn the lights off flash or change color after a set amount of time ldquoSo you can time your workout with light have your lights flash when your favorite show is about to start or even shine bright pink to let you know when the cupcakes are ready itrsquos also great for telling the kids that playtime is up and itrsquos time for bedrdquo

Also philips employs a service that connects hue lights to over 60 different products and services With Hue you can ldquochange your lightrsquos color to let you know when itrsquos raining outside blink your lights when your favorite sports team starts a new game Randomly change your lightrsquos color with a text message rdquo

Confidentiality security of information still concerns the Sept 2012 white paper ldquoWhat the internet of things (iot) Needs to Become a Realityrdquo highlights the importance of safeguarding the information obtained by iot services and creating mechanisms to ensure confidentiality of information exchanged However the report by American embedded hardware producer freescale and British software design company ARM admits ldquothis is a tough balancing act as there are a whole host of iot-related services designed to leverage data mining

and generate push services the lsquoopt outrsquo mechanism for such services would be subject to the governance of the iotrdquo

in a Nov 2012 blog posted on CNN John Horn the president of RACo Wireless a provider of wireless data solutions for the Machine-to-Machine (M2M) industry talks about threats to the growth of M2M technology which allows machines to exchange information Horn said although the M2M technology (another term for iot) already exists it doesnrsquot invade every aspect of our business and daily lives yet because of two factors long development periods and adoption of 4g connectivity

ldquoMany enterprise M2M solutions require months if not years and a significant financial commitment to get to deployment With those daunting hurdles facing many technology decision makers and despite an average return on investment at around 40 companies are deferring their M2M strategiesrdquo explains Horn He stresses ldquoWe need to get to a point where implementing an M2M strategy involves a matter of hours or days instead of months and yearsrdquo

the shift in the mobile industry towards 3g and 4g networks is another hurdle As Horn observes command-and-control communication links typically need to carry and transmit only a few kilobytes of data for any given node unless high-resolution image processing or video data is involved ldquoAs mobile carriers negotiate with limited spectrum to support 4g rollouts 2g networks are often sacrificed the problem created is that M2M applications not only lose support but they face significant expenses to enter into a 3g or 4g system where their data usage does not come close to justifying the costs not to mention the significant capital investment required for a pricey 3g or 4g compatible devicerdquo he explains

THE INTERNET OF THINGS

Wired into the World Wide Web

247 connectivity is coming for both people and devices

STraTeGY PoINTSA McKinsey Global Institute report says there are about 25 billion people and 9 billion devices currently connected to the Internet and predicts that 2-3 billion more people will have Internet access by 2025

Being connected 247 will be the norm in 2020 and a prerequisite for participation in society a Booz amp Co report finds

Challenges include securing private data and building the digital infrastructure to support the growing number of Internet users

At 730 AM Monday John checks his smartphone for instant messages from his girlfriend in Switzerland Still on his

phone he uploads pictures from his beach trip with friends over the weekend to his social networking account After showering and getting dressed his glasses flash a reminder about his 11 AM meeting with the boss while John is sipping his coffee

it is already 845 AM according to his smart watch which also brings John the latest news of the day He hurries to do some last-minute tweaking of his presentation on his notebook plugging in figures from a marketing report he accessed through his desktop computer As he heads out the door he shuts down the coffee maker stereo and desktop computer with just his voice

today there are about 25 billion people and more than 9 billion devices around the world that are connected to the internet with another 2-3 billion more people set to gain access to the internet by 2025 predicts a McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

As the number of people with Web access is expected to grow to over 5 billion in just over a decade itrsquos the concept of the mobile internet one of the disruptive technologies discussed in the report that will affect how these 5 billion people go about their lives ldquogiving them tools to become potential innovators or entrepreneursrdquo

entire industries will be influenced by Generation C today many like John already live in a hyper-connected world as more and more people and gadgets are being connected seamlessly through the internet Social interactions business meetings educational instruction medical consultations international trade banking shopping and other services can now be done online By 2020 being connected will be the norm and a prerequisite for participation in societymdashat least as far as Booz amp Co is concerned

According to the companyrsquos ldquoRise of generation C implications for the World in 2020rdquo report by the year 2020 an entire generation will have grown up in a primarily digital world Computers the internet mobile devices and social networking sites will become second nature to them By then they will constitute the largest group of consumers worldwide As such entire industries will be influenced by these constantly connected content-centric and community-oriented individuals More importantly internet connectivity bridges the digital divide particularly for the developing world where disparities among urban and rural areas are more pronounced According to the United Nations Conference on trade and Development (UNCtAD) March report on ldquointernet broadband for an inclusive digital societyrdquo broadband connections can impact economic development education healthcare social and cultural enrichment and political engagement

14

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

13

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

By Marishka Noelle M Cabrera

HoW We CoNNeCT

Moments are captured through a first-person perspective with the use of Google Glass

Google Glass

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

15

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Bringing the Internet to remote parts of the developing world on his way to work John contacts a farmer in Vietnam who will supply raw materials this farmer was able to get in touch with Johnrsquos company because he was alerted through an app on his smartphone about potential markets for his crops And because he was able to double his farmrsquos yield with the help of online video lectures he will be able to meet the demand

the McKinsey report says more than 35 billion citizens in developing economies are expected to have access to the internet in 2025 Moreover it will be possible for entrepreneurs in developing economies to compete globally in online commerce while global players will have a new channel to access fast-growing markets

Project Loon to leapfrog over fiber-optic cables A June 15 Agence france-presse report says google has revealed plans to send balloons to the edge of space with the aim of bringing the internet to the two-thirds of the world population without Web access Scientists from google released up to 30 helium-filled test balloons flying 20 kilometers above Christchurch in New Zealand with antennae linked to ground-based stations in an experimental project named project loon these balloons can beam internet access to the ground at speeds similar to 3g networks or faster if successful the technology might allow countries to leapfrog the expense of installing fiber-optic cables

ldquoit works by ground stations connecting to the local internet infrastructure and beaming signals to the balloons which are self-powered by solar panelsrdquo the report explains ldquothe balloons which once in the stratosphere will be twice as high as commercial

airliners and barely visible to the naked eye are then able to communicate with each other forming a mesh network in the sky Users below have an internet antennae they attach the side of their house which can send and receive data signals from the balloons passing overheadrdquo

According to an earlier Wall Street Journal report google is said to be ldquodeep in a multipronged effort to build and help run wireless networks in emerging markets as part of a plan to connect a billion or more new people to the internetrdquo the tech giant plans to team up with local telecommunications firms from emerging markets to develop the networks as well as the business models to support them

Mobile Internet availability fuels the growth of mobile devices With the increase in internet connectivity the mobile computing industry continues to grow along with other tech innovations such as wearable devices ldquoUbiquitous connectivity and an explosive proliferation of apps are enabling users to go about their daily routines with new ways of knowing perceiving and even interacting with the physical worldrdquo the McKinsey amp Company report says

Wearable computing devices are described in a July 1 piece in Mashable as products aimed ldquoto record our

interactions with the world and then turn that data into something easily understood giving us insights in how we might change our behavior for the betterrdquo Nowadays technological progress has enabled these gadgets to have small cheap sensors that connect to a smartphone or tablet and use ldquothe phonersquos data connection as its path to the cloud where most data processing takes placerdquo google glass is an example of a wearable device with an optical head-mounted display (oHMD) it functions like a smartphone or tabletmdashit receives and sends messages takes photos and videos gives directions and allows users to share and retrieve information over the internetmdashbut is controlled mainly by voice command

tech giants Samsung and Apple are reported to be creating their own hands-free devices says a May 6 article in technology review site teck Comes first Apple Bloomberg says in a february report

has a team of about 100 product designers working on a ldquowristwatch-like device that may perform some of the tasks now handled by the iphone and ipadrdquo Chief executive officer tim Cook is said to be facing pressure from investors amid slowing sales growth and competition from rivals such as Samsung which a new revolutionary gadget could address Nike and health tech firm fitbit are already offering wearable machines for tracking fitness

Bloomberg says the introduction of wearable computing devices may signal a new direction for the consumer electronics industry similar to what the ipad did for the tablet market

Cloud technology and the Internet of things bring services and objects to the connected world Cloud technology can deliver any computer application or service over a network or the internet with minimal local software or processing power required in essence cloud computing involves storing and accessing data and programs over the internet instead of onersquos hard drive as described in a March 13 article in pC Mag ldquoWith an online connection cloud computing can be done anywhere anytimerdquo it says

the McKinsey report adds ldquothe cloud is enabling the explosive growth of internet-based services from search to streaming media to offline storage of personal data (photos books music) as well as the background processing capabilities that enable mobile internet devices to do things like respond to spoken commands to ask for directionsrdquo

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

17

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

everyday objects are being equipped with networked sensors and actuators bringing them to the connected world the internet of things is another technology mentioned in the McKinsey report that can impact people business society government and health in a big way this enables machinery shipments infrastructure and devices ldquoto monitor their environment report their status receive instructions and even take action based on the information they receiverdquo

tech expert Jonathan Strickland explains in a video from How Stuff Works how the internet of things can impact the way we live by walking us through the living room of the future He describes how sensors are taking information from real physical objects and uploading it to the internet ldquoitrsquos a world where your environment transforms as you walk through it because technology that you may not even be aware of is monitoring your every moverdquo he says the video shows how objects in

The Industrial revolution meets the Information agePerhaps itrsquos fitting that one of the 20th-century giants of the Industrial Revolution figure a new path to tread in the 21st century

In November 2012 General Electric (GE) announced that the world was ldquoon the threshold of a new era of innovation and change with the rise of the Industrial Internetrdquo a term it coined in a report by Peter C Evans GErsquos director of global strategy and analytics and Marco Annunziata GErsquos chief economist The report it said discusses ldquothe convergence of the global industrial system with the power of advanced computing analytics low-cost sensing and new levels of connectivity permitted by the Internetrdquo

A separate report in the Massachusetts Institute of Technologyrsquos MIT Technology Review also in November 2012 broke down GErsquos vision of the Industrial Internet thusly ldquoThe term coined inside GErsquos RampD division reflects the companyrsquos hope that adding more sensors to machinery will result in a deluge of data that will in turn let companies squeeze more efficiency out of locomotives jet engines MRI machines and other equipment GE sellsrdquo

According to the report GE is set to invest $15 billion in the idea over a three-year period looking at ways for example to sift through all the data to predict when GErsquos jet engines in service will need maintenance And in December 2012 it put some more money where its mouth was with GE Aviation and Accenture announcing the formation of Taleris a joint venture providing airlines and cargo carriers around the world with ldquointelligent operations services focused on improving efficiency by leveraging aircraft performance data prognostics recovery and planning optimization solutionsrdquo

But aviation is not the only area where GE sees potential in marrying machines to analytics and connectivity ldquoThese innovations promise to bring greater speed and efficiency to industries as diverse as aviation rail transportation power generation oil and gas development and health care deliveryrdquo Evans and Annunziata predict in their aforementioned report as summed up in the GE announcement

And the potential appears to be enormous The Industrial Internet according to Evans and Annunziata has the potential to boost average incomes in the United States by 25 to 40 over the next 20 years and to lift growth back to levels not seen since the late 1990s And If the rest of the world achieved just half of the US productivity gains the Industrial Internet could add from $10 to $15 trillion to global GDP ndash the size of todayrsquos US economy ndash over the same period the authors predicted

We will live in a world blanketed by sensors with objects that react to us tell us what we need and customize the environment around us Source How Stuff Works

the room can automatically identify you and tap into a cloud-based profile of your preferences such as room temperature music and lighting the room also knows whether you had a stressful day based on the

calendar app of your phone or the biosensors that detect heart rate and blood pressure

Challenges of being constantly connected Nevertheless the digital infrastructure must be able to support the growing number of devices accessing the internet today cellular networks such as 3g and 4g and Wi-fi are being used in homes offices and public spaces the McKinsey report predicts that over the coming decade 5g cellular networks satellite services and possibly long-range Wi-fi could become the next network advances ldquothese technologies will need to fight for increasingly scarce wireless frequencies but new approaches to dynamically sharing spectrum such as software-defined radios could help ease the crunchrdquo it notes

Meanwhile a June 21 piece in the Harvard Business Review Blog Network raises security concerns over the internet of things it notes ldquoparadoxically the

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

The long road to FacebookAs social media takes hold of the Information Age and sends us hurtling toward moving past bouncing off and occasionally colliding with all sorts of information at warp speed the very idea of a history of social media seems quaint and even dated And yet we are reminded now and then that in order to know to where we are going we need to know from where we came

Canadian journalist and blogger Cendrine Marrouat with some help from Karim Benyagoub provides us with a brief if unofficial history of social media as summed up in a neat infographic that takes us from the origins of the Internet (as Arpanet) in 1969 to its 24-billion population of users by 2012 including milestones and stopovers along the way that a new generation might have been too young to remember (eg the first e-mail was sent in 1971 a company called ICQ was doing instant messaging before AOL Google or Yahoo and Hotmail one of the first web-based commercial e-mail services was taken over by Microsoft in 1997 a year after it was set up by Sabeer Bhatia and Jack Smith as we recall) Image credit Karim Benyagoub and Cendrine Marrouat

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

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very principle that makes the [internet of things] so powerful mdash the potential to share data instantly with everyone and everything (every authorized entity that is) mdash creates a huge cybersecurity threatrdquo it will allow data to be shared more widely than ever and in real time

protecting your privacy will be a challenge Since information is shared or stored on a variety of devices it will be hard to keep track of what kind of data is being made available to the public imagine your wearable device for instance sending out information about your location the person you are with which items you bought your health and fitness levels and the like taken together these mobile devices coupled with the internet of things have the potential to build a treasure trove of data about you

without you even knowing it

And then therersquos the psychological cost of being constantly connected in her teD talk in february 2012 Sherry turkle Massachusetts

institute of technology (Mit) professor and director of the Mit initiative on technology and Self argues that ldquothose little deviceshellipare so psychologically powerful that they donrsquot only change what we do they change who we arerdquo She talks about how being constantly connected and attached to our devices can get in the way of us understanding one another and ourselves

in many ways technologies that allow us to build a network of connections in our daily lives have transformed the world for the better And yet these virtual connections can only make sense if real-life relationships are not substituted but cultivated

Sherry Turkle professor at MIT talks about how technology and the need to be connected also has the potential to make us feel more alone

supergraphicWIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

22

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The Age of Autonomy Is Coming Soon to a Highway Near You

After the advent of driverless cars will we be ready for pilotless planesBy Victoria Fritz

STRATEGY POINTS

Driverless cars are coming soon and people are looking forward to it according to at least one global survey

Unmanned passenger planes are also on the drawing board and the testing ground

Ghost drivers on the horizon

the age of autonomous transportation is dawning featuring vehicles that can maneuver with reduced or even no human intervention as identified in the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the technology for driverless vehicles is already available or at least fast developing googlersquos driverless cars have logged over 300000 miles since 2010 without accidents (one accident in 2011 occurred when someone was driving) according to a May 13 article posted on the United States-based public Broadcasting Service (pBS) site

While googlersquos cars rack up the mileage BMW toyota and general Motors continue developing their own models Across the Atlantic in Spain Volvo upped googlersquos feat by queuing three cars behind a lorry for 200 kilometers on a busy highway as reported in Forbes in May 2012 in a practice called road-training ie making a train from queued cars)

The promised benefits of driverless technology Driverless technology offers many benefits not the least of which would be increased safety the majority of road accidents collectively responsible for over a million deaths a year according to World Bank figures are caused by human error Up to 90 of road accidents can be attributed to human error as reported in April 2011 on alertdrivingcom Removing man from the equation would theoretically reduce the number of road accidents significantly saving anywhere from 30000 to 150000 lives a year according to the McKinsey report

A special report on driverless cars ldquolook no handsrdquo in the April 20 edition of The Economist

cites decreased congestion as another benefit in a demonstration Volvo packed autonomous cars together in ldquoroad trainsrdquo this increases road capacity while easing traffic Road trains also create an aerodynamic effect that increases fuel efficiency which leads to a reduction in Co2 emissions A 1995 study by the University of Southern California showed that it could improve fuel efficiency by up to 30

freeing up the time allotted for driving also means more time for work or leisure increasing human productivity people can now start working even while on their way to the office What would that do to the official eight-hour workday

According to the McKinsey report the likely major impediments to a quick adoption of this new technology are creating the necessary regulatory frameworks and gaining public support

reducing one risk but begetting others the pBS article examined certain concerns faced by the driverless vehicle concept While it decreases one danger (by reducing or eliminating human error) it presents another ndash the possibility of computer error especially at high speeds At present car sensors are not able to cope with extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain or snow-covered streets

less obvious visual cues such as a construction project could be lost on a driverless vehicle Judgment calls such as when to go at a four-way stop could be tricky for such cars

An April 13 blog post on the Harvard law School communityrsquos discussion site City law discusses the legal aspects of driverless cars So far Nevada California and florida are the only states that have passed laws addressing automated vehicles With its onset driving licensure laws would need an overhaul

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

HoW We TraveL

24

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

23

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

the traffic safety governing body would need to promulgate new standards to address the technology and software it poses questions if a self-driving car hits a pedestrian who is liable

Carmakers already working on driverless cars Despite the lack of a regulatory framework according to the McKinsey report the following large carmakers are already developing their own versions general Motors toyota Mercedes-Benz Audi BMW and Volvo

Machine vision is a key capability in achieving vehicle autonomy with other systems working in tandem (for a quick review of the technologies involved refer to ldquothe Car of the future A thinking green Machinerdquo in the March 26 2012 issue of The CenSEI Report)

Costs prohibitive now but coming down drastically later Chunka Mui a contributor at Forbes magazine analyzed the obstacles to public acceptance of the driverless car in a January 2013 piece He listed cost as prohibitive at present saying estimated cost of each google driverless car is more than US$300000 However using the trajectory of the cost of a gigabyte of memory as an analogue ndash in 1981 a gigabyte cost US$300000 going down to US$10000 a decade later and then down to US$10 another 10 years later and now it costs less than 10 cents ndash he predicts that driverless technology will see the same drastic reduction in cost

Mui also looked into the question of public adoption people will be reluctant to let go of the steering wheel But he believes that once society sees the benefits people will come to trust the technology

Public trust still lacking An April 20 Christian Science Monitor blog post by Richard Read also encouraged people in the know to talk

with others about the driverless car in order to speed up development Read was recounting tips given during the Society of Automotive engineersrsquo World Congress in Detroit Michigan that week participants agreed the technology is already here but also identified the main impediment as lack of public trust first people need to become aware of autonomous vehicles Second they need to be convinced of their reliability

to get a better idea of the public pulse on this matter Cisco conducted a survey earlier this year and published its results in May on gigaomcom the global survey had 1514 respondents aged 18 and older of the total number surveyed across the globe 57 said they would ride a driverless car as reported by Kevin fitchard in his May 14 blog post in gigaoM discussing the Cisco survey

Countries however varied widely in their respective national responses Brazil topped the charts with a 95 approval rating followed by india and China Japan was a low 28 likewise western european countries were lukewarm in the United States where many prototypes of driverless technology are being tested the approval rating was 60 above the global average

fitchard himself acknowledged unwllingness to give up total control of the car saying he was more comfortable with some autonomy

CISCo GLoBaL SUrveYPUBLIC aCCePTaNCe oF DrIverLeSS CarS

Table from ldquoCisco survey Consumers are getting comfortable with the idea of the driverless carrdquo Kevin Fitchard as posted on GigaoM May 14 2013

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

CAPTION YouTube

He also questioned the veracity of an industry-sponsored survey saying that Cisco even though it wasnrsquot general Motors or google still had a stake in the matter But his observation of the generally thorough nature of Cisco surveys put his own doubts to rest

When will the future arrive there is some discussion as to when this new technology will be available to the mass market the panel at SAe sees this happening in 2025 according to a Wall Street Journal April 17 online article general Motors was reported as predicting the public debut of driverless cars in 2020 as reported in the aforementioned issue of The CenSEI Report google makes the boldest prediction and is hoping to offer this technology to the public by 2018

Ghost pilots in the sky

Whenever the driverless car gets here do you think yoursquoll be ready for airplanes that pilot themselves

A team at the Massachusetts institute of technology have developed an autonomous robotic plane capable of flying indoors without aid of a remote control device this could contribute significantly to the development of an pilotless passenger airplane Click on the image below for a video of the autonomous robotic plane in action

Getting a charge from driving

Autonomous or automatic to be more accurate charging is another way of increasing efficiency on the road Ever since electric vehicles debuted on the market the main obstacle has always been the battery ndash the cost the size the storage capacity Engineers are now working on solving that problem by creating an automatic charging system that is one built into the road Back in 2010 this system was launched in London as discussed in an article on Englandrsquos autocar website The system design is shown in the following graphic

An article appearing in the BBCrsquos Future section in March 2012 also mentions this ldquowireless highwayrdquo as a way to address electric car motoristsrsquo range anxiety (fear of losing power on the road) More recently on June 18 Business Insider ran an article that mentions Volvorsquos own project in partnership with Swedish power company Alstom to create a road that charges vehicles as they drive over it

1 - Power

2 - Transmitter

4 - Receiver Pad

5 - System

6 - Battery

3 - Wireless Electricity amp Data

Flying by the numbersWhen commercial flying was first introduced people took a long time to get over their fear of flying When they realized it was relatively safe they hopped on planes in droves Would people be willing to ride a pilotless plane as well

A November 2012 piece in The Economist looked into the possibility of pilotless aircraft taking off even before driverless cars and conducted its own survey on whether its readers thought pilot-less aircraft would take off before driverless cars This writerrsquos own misgivings notwithstanding the survey results indicate that an overwhelming 70 of respondents believe the pilotless plane will happen even before the driverless car

Most of the required technology such as autopilot or self-landing is already there the Economist piece observed The afore-mentioned ASTRAEA tests are about ascertaining whether these capabilities can be achieved without a pilot in the cockpit and in compliance with existing rules of air travel

you voted NoTotal votes 8486

Voting opened on Nov 23rd 2012

Graphic from The Economist poll ldquoWill pilotless airplanes takeoff before driverless carsrdquo generated from writerrsquos own participation in survey

in June this year a trial on pilotless passenger airplanes was conducted in the United Kingdom as reported on the site of The Engineer magazine the age of unmanned aircraft is drawing near the report declared qualifying that this was apart from already present military drones and remotely operated miniature vehicles British engineers announced that an adapted conventional

Jetstream passenger plane flew 500 miles without aid of a human operator under the aegis of AStRAeA the UKrsquos cross-industry project to develop technology and regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or systems (UAS) the report consisted of an interview where experts spoke at length about this new technologyrsquos issues

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

28

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

27

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

29

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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Page 7: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

Wired into the World Wide Web

247 connectivity is coming for both people and devices

STraTeGY PoINTSA McKinsey Global Institute report says there are about 25 billion people and 9 billion devices currently connected to the Internet and predicts that 2-3 billion more people will have Internet access by 2025

Being connected 247 will be the norm in 2020 and a prerequisite for participation in society a Booz amp Co report finds

Challenges include securing private data and building the digital infrastructure to support the growing number of Internet users

At 730 AM Monday John checks his smartphone for instant messages from his girlfriend in Switzerland Still on his

phone he uploads pictures from his beach trip with friends over the weekend to his social networking account After showering and getting dressed his glasses flash a reminder about his 11 AM meeting with the boss while John is sipping his coffee

it is already 845 AM according to his smart watch which also brings John the latest news of the day He hurries to do some last-minute tweaking of his presentation on his notebook plugging in figures from a marketing report he accessed through his desktop computer As he heads out the door he shuts down the coffee maker stereo and desktop computer with just his voice

today there are about 25 billion people and more than 9 billion devices around the world that are connected to the internet with another 2-3 billion more people set to gain access to the internet by 2025 predicts a McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

As the number of people with Web access is expected to grow to over 5 billion in just over a decade itrsquos the concept of the mobile internet one of the disruptive technologies discussed in the report that will affect how these 5 billion people go about their lives ldquogiving them tools to become potential innovators or entrepreneursrdquo

entire industries will be influenced by Generation C today many like John already live in a hyper-connected world as more and more people and gadgets are being connected seamlessly through the internet Social interactions business meetings educational instruction medical consultations international trade banking shopping and other services can now be done online By 2020 being connected will be the norm and a prerequisite for participation in societymdashat least as far as Booz amp Co is concerned

According to the companyrsquos ldquoRise of generation C implications for the World in 2020rdquo report by the year 2020 an entire generation will have grown up in a primarily digital world Computers the internet mobile devices and social networking sites will become second nature to them By then they will constitute the largest group of consumers worldwide As such entire industries will be influenced by these constantly connected content-centric and community-oriented individuals More importantly internet connectivity bridges the digital divide particularly for the developing world where disparities among urban and rural areas are more pronounced According to the United Nations Conference on trade and Development (UNCtAD) March report on ldquointernet broadband for an inclusive digital societyrdquo broadband connections can impact economic development education healthcare social and cultural enrichment and political engagement

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POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

By Marishka Noelle M Cabrera

HoW We CoNNeCT

Moments are captured through a first-person perspective with the use of Google Glass

Google Glass

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Bringing the Internet to remote parts of the developing world on his way to work John contacts a farmer in Vietnam who will supply raw materials this farmer was able to get in touch with Johnrsquos company because he was alerted through an app on his smartphone about potential markets for his crops And because he was able to double his farmrsquos yield with the help of online video lectures he will be able to meet the demand

the McKinsey report says more than 35 billion citizens in developing economies are expected to have access to the internet in 2025 Moreover it will be possible for entrepreneurs in developing economies to compete globally in online commerce while global players will have a new channel to access fast-growing markets

Project Loon to leapfrog over fiber-optic cables A June 15 Agence france-presse report says google has revealed plans to send balloons to the edge of space with the aim of bringing the internet to the two-thirds of the world population without Web access Scientists from google released up to 30 helium-filled test balloons flying 20 kilometers above Christchurch in New Zealand with antennae linked to ground-based stations in an experimental project named project loon these balloons can beam internet access to the ground at speeds similar to 3g networks or faster if successful the technology might allow countries to leapfrog the expense of installing fiber-optic cables

ldquoit works by ground stations connecting to the local internet infrastructure and beaming signals to the balloons which are self-powered by solar panelsrdquo the report explains ldquothe balloons which once in the stratosphere will be twice as high as commercial

airliners and barely visible to the naked eye are then able to communicate with each other forming a mesh network in the sky Users below have an internet antennae they attach the side of their house which can send and receive data signals from the balloons passing overheadrdquo

According to an earlier Wall Street Journal report google is said to be ldquodeep in a multipronged effort to build and help run wireless networks in emerging markets as part of a plan to connect a billion or more new people to the internetrdquo the tech giant plans to team up with local telecommunications firms from emerging markets to develop the networks as well as the business models to support them

Mobile Internet availability fuels the growth of mobile devices With the increase in internet connectivity the mobile computing industry continues to grow along with other tech innovations such as wearable devices ldquoUbiquitous connectivity and an explosive proliferation of apps are enabling users to go about their daily routines with new ways of knowing perceiving and even interacting with the physical worldrdquo the McKinsey amp Company report says

Wearable computing devices are described in a July 1 piece in Mashable as products aimed ldquoto record our

interactions with the world and then turn that data into something easily understood giving us insights in how we might change our behavior for the betterrdquo Nowadays technological progress has enabled these gadgets to have small cheap sensors that connect to a smartphone or tablet and use ldquothe phonersquos data connection as its path to the cloud where most data processing takes placerdquo google glass is an example of a wearable device with an optical head-mounted display (oHMD) it functions like a smartphone or tabletmdashit receives and sends messages takes photos and videos gives directions and allows users to share and retrieve information over the internetmdashbut is controlled mainly by voice command

tech giants Samsung and Apple are reported to be creating their own hands-free devices says a May 6 article in technology review site teck Comes first Apple Bloomberg says in a february report

has a team of about 100 product designers working on a ldquowristwatch-like device that may perform some of the tasks now handled by the iphone and ipadrdquo Chief executive officer tim Cook is said to be facing pressure from investors amid slowing sales growth and competition from rivals such as Samsung which a new revolutionary gadget could address Nike and health tech firm fitbit are already offering wearable machines for tracking fitness

Bloomberg says the introduction of wearable computing devices may signal a new direction for the consumer electronics industry similar to what the ipad did for the tablet market

Cloud technology and the Internet of things bring services and objects to the connected world Cloud technology can deliver any computer application or service over a network or the internet with minimal local software or processing power required in essence cloud computing involves storing and accessing data and programs over the internet instead of onersquos hard drive as described in a March 13 article in pC Mag ldquoWith an online connection cloud computing can be done anywhere anytimerdquo it says

the McKinsey report adds ldquothe cloud is enabling the explosive growth of internet-based services from search to streaming media to offline storage of personal data (photos books music) as well as the background processing capabilities that enable mobile internet devices to do things like respond to spoken commands to ask for directionsrdquo

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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everyday objects are being equipped with networked sensors and actuators bringing them to the connected world the internet of things is another technology mentioned in the McKinsey report that can impact people business society government and health in a big way this enables machinery shipments infrastructure and devices ldquoto monitor their environment report their status receive instructions and even take action based on the information they receiverdquo

tech expert Jonathan Strickland explains in a video from How Stuff Works how the internet of things can impact the way we live by walking us through the living room of the future He describes how sensors are taking information from real physical objects and uploading it to the internet ldquoitrsquos a world where your environment transforms as you walk through it because technology that you may not even be aware of is monitoring your every moverdquo he says the video shows how objects in

The Industrial revolution meets the Information agePerhaps itrsquos fitting that one of the 20th-century giants of the Industrial Revolution figure a new path to tread in the 21st century

In November 2012 General Electric (GE) announced that the world was ldquoon the threshold of a new era of innovation and change with the rise of the Industrial Internetrdquo a term it coined in a report by Peter C Evans GErsquos director of global strategy and analytics and Marco Annunziata GErsquos chief economist The report it said discusses ldquothe convergence of the global industrial system with the power of advanced computing analytics low-cost sensing and new levels of connectivity permitted by the Internetrdquo

A separate report in the Massachusetts Institute of Technologyrsquos MIT Technology Review also in November 2012 broke down GErsquos vision of the Industrial Internet thusly ldquoThe term coined inside GErsquos RampD division reflects the companyrsquos hope that adding more sensors to machinery will result in a deluge of data that will in turn let companies squeeze more efficiency out of locomotives jet engines MRI machines and other equipment GE sellsrdquo

According to the report GE is set to invest $15 billion in the idea over a three-year period looking at ways for example to sift through all the data to predict when GErsquos jet engines in service will need maintenance And in December 2012 it put some more money where its mouth was with GE Aviation and Accenture announcing the formation of Taleris a joint venture providing airlines and cargo carriers around the world with ldquointelligent operations services focused on improving efficiency by leveraging aircraft performance data prognostics recovery and planning optimization solutionsrdquo

But aviation is not the only area where GE sees potential in marrying machines to analytics and connectivity ldquoThese innovations promise to bring greater speed and efficiency to industries as diverse as aviation rail transportation power generation oil and gas development and health care deliveryrdquo Evans and Annunziata predict in their aforementioned report as summed up in the GE announcement

And the potential appears to be enormous The Industrial Internet according to Evans and Annunziata has the potential to boost average incomes in the United States by 25 to 40 over the next 20 years and to lift growth back to levels not seen since the late 1990s And If the rest of the world achieved just half of the US productivity gains the Industrial Internet could add from $10 to $15 trillion to global GDP ndash the size of todayrsquos US economy ndash over the same period the authors predicted

We will live in a world blanketed by sensors with objects that react to us tell us what we need and customize the environment around us Source How Stuff Works

the room can automatically identify you and tap into a cloud-based profile of your preferences such as room temperature music and lighting the room also knows whether you had a stressful day based on the

calendar app of your phone or the biosensors that detect heart rate and blood pressure

Challenges of being constantly connected Nevertheless the digital infrastructure must be able to support the growing number of devices accessing the internet today cellular networks such as 3g and 4g and Wi-fi are being used in homes offices and public spaces the McKinsey report predicts that over the coming decade 5g cellular networks satellite services and possibly long-range Wi-fi could become the next network advances ldquothese technologies will need to fight for increasingly scarce wireless frequencies but new approaches to dynamically sharing spectrum such as software-defined radios could help ease the crunchrdquo it notes

Meanwhile a June 21 piece in the Harvard Business Review Blog Network raises security concerns over the internet of things it notes ldquoparadoxically the

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

The long road to FacebookAs social media takes hold of the Information Age and sends us hurtling toward moving past bouncing off and occasionally colliding with all sorts of information at warp speed the very idea of a history of social media seems quaint and even dated And yet we are reminded now and then that in order to know to where we are going we need to know from where we came

Canadian journalist and blogger Cendrine Marrouat with some help from Karim Benyagoub provides us with a brief if unofficial history of social media as summed up in a neat infographic that takes us from the origins of the Internet (as Arpanet) in 1969 to its 24-billion population of users by 2012 including milestones and stopovers along the way that a new generation might have been too young to remember (eg the first e-mail was sent in 1971 a company called ICQ was doing instant messaging before AOL Google or Yahoo and Hotmail one of the first web-based commercial e-mail services was taken over by Microsoft in 1997 a year after it was set up by Sabeer Bhatia and Jack Smith as we recall) Image credit Karim Benyagoub and Cendrine Marrouat

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very principle that makes the [internet of things] so powerful mdash the potential to share data instantly with everyone and everything (every authorized entity that is) mdash creates a huge cybersecurity threatrdquo it will allow data to be shared more widely than ever and in real time

protecting your privacy will be a challenge Since information is shared or stored on a variety of devices it will be hard to keep track of what kind of data is being made available to the public imagine your wearable device for instance sending out information about your location the person you are with which items you bought your health and fitness levels and the like taken together these mobile devices coupled with the internet of things have the potential to build a treasure trove of data about you

without you even knowing it

And then therersquos the psychological cost of being constantly connected in her teD talk in february 2012 Sherry turkle Massachusetts

institute of technology (Mit) professor and director of the Mit initiative on technology and Self argues that ldquothose little deviceshellipare so psychologically powerful that they donrsquot only change what we do they change who we arerdquo She talks about how being constantly connected and attached to our devices can get in the way of us understanding one another and ourselves

in many ways technologies that allow us to build a network of connections in our daily lives have transformed the world for the better And yet these virtual connections can only make sense if real-life relationships are not substituted but cultivated

Sherry Turkle professor at MIT talks about how technology and the need to be connected also has the potential to make us feel more alone

supergraphicWIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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The Age of Autonomy Is Coming Soon to a Highway Near You

After the advent of driverless cars will we be ready for pilotless planesBy Victoria Fritz

STRATEGY POINTS

Driverless cars are coming soon and people are looking forward to it according to at least one global survey

Unmanned passenger planes are also on the drawing board and the testing ground

Ghost drivers on the horizon

the age of autonomous transportation is dawning featuring vehicles that can maneuver with reduced or even no human intervention as identified in the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the technology for driverless vehicles is already available or at least fast developing googlersquos driverless cars have logged over 300000 miles since 2010 without accidents (one accident in 2011 occurred when someone was driving) according to a May 13 article posted on the United States-based public Broadcasting Service (pBS) site

While googlersquos cars rack up the mileage BMW toyota and general Motors continue developing their own models Across the Atlantic in Spain Volvo upped googlersquos feat by queuing three cars behind a lorry for 200 kilometers on a busy highway as reported in Forbes in May 2012 in a practice called road-training ie making a train from queued cars)

The promised benefits of driverless technology Driverless technology offers many benefits not the least of which would be increased safety the majority of road accidents collectively responsible for over a million deaths a year according to World Bank figures are caused by human error Up to 90 of road accidents can be attributed to human error as reported in April 2011 on alertdrivingcom Removing man from the equation would theoretically reduce the number of road accidents significantly saving anywhere from 30000 to 150000 lives a year according to the McKinsey report

A special report on driverless cars ldquolook no handsrdquo in the April 20 edition of The Economist

cites decreased congestion as another benefit in a demonstration Volvo packed autonomous cars together in ldquoroad trainsrdquo this increases road capacity while easing traffic Road trains also create an aerodynamic effect that increases fuel efficiency which leads to a reduction in Co2 emissions A 1995 study by the University of Southern California showed that it could improve fuel efficiency by up to 30

freeing up the time allotted for driving also means more time for work or leisure increasing human productivity people can now start working even while on their way to the office What would that do to the official eight-hour workday

According to the McKinsey report the likely major impediments to a quick adoption of this new technology are creating the necessary regulatory frameworks and gaining public support

reducing one risk but begetting others the pBS article examined certain concerns faced by the driverless vehicle concept While it decreases one danger (by reducing or eliminating human error) it presents another ndash the possibility of computer error especially at high speeds At present car sensors are not able to cope with extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain or snow-covered streets

less obvious visual cues such as a construction project could be lost on a driverless vehicle Judgment calls such as when to go at a four-way stop could be tricky for such cars

An April 13 blog post on the Harvard law School communityrsquos discussion site City law discusses the legal aspects of driverless cars So far Nevada California and florida are the only states that have passed laws addressing automated vehicles With its onset driving licensure laws would need an overhaul

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

HoW We TraveL

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the traffic safety governing body would need to promulgate new standards to address the technology and software it poses questions if a self-driving car hits a pedestrian who is liable

Carmakers already working on driverless cars Despite the lack of a regulatory framework according to the McKinsey report the following large carmakers are already developing their own versions general Motors toyota Mercedes-Benz Audi BMW and Volvo

Machine vision is a key capability in achieving vehicle autonomy with other systems working in tandem (for a quick review of the technologies involved refer to ldquothe Car of the future A thinking green Machinerdquo in the March 26 2012 issue of The CenSEI Report)

Costs prohibitive now but coming down drastically later Chunka Mui a contributor at Forbes magazine analyzed the obstacles to public acceptance of the driverless car in a January 2013 piece He listed cost as prohibitive at present saying estimated cost of each google driverless car is more than US$300000 However using the trajectory of the cost of a gigabyte of memory as an analogue ndash in 1981 a gigabyte cost US$300000 going down to US$10000 a decade later and then down to US$10 another 10 years later and now it costs less than 10 cents ndash he predicts that driverless technology will see the same drastic reduction in cost

Mui also looked into the question of public adoption people will be reluctant to let go of the steering wheel But he believes that once society sees the benefits people will come to trust the technology

Public trust still lacking An April 20 Christian Science Monitor blog post by Richard Read also encouraged people in the know to talk

with others about the driverless car in order to speed up development Read was recounting tips given during the Society of Automotive engineersrsquo World Congress in Detroit Michigan that week participants agreed the technology is already here but also identified the main impediment as lack of public trust first people need to become aware of autonomous vehicles Second they need to be convinced of their reliability

to get a better idea of the public pulse on this matter Cisco conducted a survey earlier this year and published its results in May on gigaomcom the global survey had 1514 respondents aged 18 and older of the total number surveyed across the globe 57 said they would ride a driverless car as reported by Kevin fitchard in his May 14 blog post in gigaoM discussing the Cisco survey

Countries however varied widely in their respective national responses Brazil topped the charts with a 95 approval rating followed by india and China Japan was a low 28 likewise western european countries were lukewarm in the United States where many prototypes of driverless technology are being tested the approval rating was 60 above the global average

fitchard himself acknowledged unwllingness to give up total control of the car saying he was more comfortable with some autonomy

CISCo GLoBaL SUrveYPUBLIC aCCePTaNCe oF DrIverLeSS CarS

Table from ldquoCisco survey Consumers are getting comfortable with the idea of the driverless carrdquo Kevin Fitchard as posted on GigaoM May 14 2013

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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CAPTION YouTube

He also questioned the veracity of an industry-sponsored survey saying that Cisco even though it wasnrsquot general Motors or google still had a stake in the matter But his observation of the generally thorough nature of Cisco surveys put his own doubts to rest

When will the future arrive there is some discussion as to when this new technology will be available to the mass market the panel at SAe sees this happening in 2025 according to a Wall Street Journal April 17 online article general Motors was reported as predicting the public debut of driverless cars in 2020 as reported in the aforementioned issue of The CenSEI Report google makes the boldest prediction and is hoping to offer this technology to the public by 2018

Ghost pilots in the sky

Whenever the driverless car gets here do you think yoursquoll be ready for airplanes that pilot themselves

A team at the Massachusetts institute of technology have developed an autonomous robotic plane capable of flying indoors without aid of a remote control device this could contribute significantly to the development of an pilotless passenger airplane Click on the image below for a video of the autonomous robotic plane in action

Getting a charge from driving

Autonomous or automatic to be more accurate charging is another way of increasing efficiency on the road Ever since electric vehicles debuted on the market the main obstacle has always been the battery ndash the cost the size the storage capacity Engineers are now working on solving that problem by creating an automatic charging system that is one built into the road Back in 2010 this system was launched in London as discussed in an article on Englandrsquos autocar website The system design is shown in the following graphic

An article appearing in the BBCrsquos Future section in March 2012 also mentions this ldquowireless highwayrdquo as a way to address electric car motoristsrsquo range anxiety (fear of losing power on the road) More recently on June 18 Business Insider ran an article that mentions Volvorsquos own project in partnership with Swedish power company Alstom to create a road that charges vehicles as they drive over it

1 - Power

2 - Transmitter

4 - Receiver Pad

5 - System

6 - Battery

3 - Wireless Electricity amp Data

Flying by the numbersWhen commercial flying was first introduced people took a long time to get over their fear of flying When they realized it was relatively safe they hopped on planes in droves Would people be willing to ride a pilotless plane as well

A November 2012 piece in The Economist looked into the possibility of pilotless aircraft taking off even before driverless cars and conducted its own survey on whether its readers thought pilot-less aircraft would take off before driverless cars This writerrsquos own misgivings notwithstanding the survey results indicate that an overwhelming 70 of respondents believe the pilotless plane will happen even before the driverless car

Most of the required technology such as autopilot or self-landing is already there the Economist piece observed The afore-mentioned ASTRAEA tests are about ascertaining whether these capabilities can be achieved without a pilot in the cockpit and in compliance with existing rules of air travel

you voted NoTotal votes 8486

Voting opened on Nov 23rd 2012

Graphic from The Economist poll ldquoWill pilotless airplanes takeoff before driverless carsrdquo generated from writerrsquos own participation in survey

in June this year a trial on pilotless passenger airplanes was conducted in the United Kingdom as reported on the site of The Engineer magazine the age of unmanned aircraft is drawing near the report declared qualifying that this was apart from already present military drones and remotely operated miniature vehicles British engineers announced that an adapted conventional

Jetstream passenger plane flew 500 miles without aid of a human operator under the aegis of AStRAeA the UKrsquos cross-industry project to develop technology and regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or systems (UAS) the report consisted of an interview where experts spoke at length about this new technologyrsquos issues

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

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POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

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Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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Page 8: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

Moments are captured through a first-person perspective with the use of Google Glass

Google Glass

16

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

15

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Bringing the Internet to remote parts of the developing world on his way to work John contacts a farmer in Vietnam who will supply raw materials this farmer was able to get in touch with Johnrsquos company because he was alerted through an app on his smartphone about potential markets for his crops And because he was able to double his farmrsquos yield with the help of online video lectures he will be able to meet the demand

the McKinsey report says more than 35 billion citizens in developing economies are expected to have access to the internet in 2025 Moreover it will be possible for entrepreneurs in developing economies to compete globally in online commerce while global players will have a new channel to access fast-growing markets

Project Loon to leapfrog over fiber-optic cables A June 15 Agence france-presse report says google has revealed plans to send balloons to the edge of space with the aim of bringing the internet to the two-thirds of the world population without Web access Scientists from google released up to 30 helium-filled test balloons flying 20 kilometers above Christchurch in New Zealand with antennae linked to ground-based stations in an experimental project named project loon these balloons can beam internet access to the ground at speeds similar to 3g networks or faster if successful the technology might allow countries to leapfrog the expense of installing fiber-optic cables

ldquoit works by ground stations connecting to the local internet infrastructure and beaming signals to the balloons which are self-powered by solar panelsrdquo the report explains ldquothe balloons which once in the stratosphere will be twice as high as commercial

airliners and barely visible to the naked eye are then able to communicate with each other forming a mesh network in the sky Users below have an internet antennae they attach the side of their house which can send and receive data signals from the balloons passing overheadrdquo

According to an earlier Wall Street Journal report google is said to be ldquodeep in a multipronged effort to build and help run wireless networks in emerging markets as part of a plan to connect a billion or more new people to the internetrdquo the tech giant plans to team up with local telecommunications firms from emerging markets to develop the networks as well as the business models to support them

Mobile Internet availability fuels the growth of mobile devices With the increase in internet connectivity the mobile computing industry continues to grow along with other tech innovations such as wearable devices ldquoUbiquitous connectivity and an explosive proliferation of apps are enabling users to go about their daily routines with new ways of knowing perceiving and even interacting with the physical worldrdquo the McKinsey amp Company report says

Wearable computing devices are described in a July 1 piece in Mashable as products aimed ldquoto record our

interactions with the world and then turn that data into something easily understood giving us insights in how we might change our behavior for the betterrdquo Nowadays technological progress has enabled these gadgets to have small cheap sensors that connect to a smartphone or tablet and use ldquothe phonersquos data connection as its path to the cloud where most data processing takes placerdquo google glass is an example of a wearable device with an optical head-mounted display (oHMD) it functions like a smartphone or tabletmdashit receives and sends messages takes photos and videos gives directions and allows users to share and retrieve information over the internetmdashbut is controlled mainly by voice command

tech giants Samsung and Apple are reported to be creating their own hands-free devices says a May 6 article in technology review site teck Comes first Apple Bloomberg says in a february report

has a team of about 100 product designers working on a ldquowristwatch-like device that may perform some of the tasks now handled by the iphone and ipadrdquo Chief executive officer tim Cook is said to be facing pressure from investors amid slowing sales growth and competition from rivals such as Samsung which a new revolutionary gadget could address Nike and health tech firm fitbit are already offering wearable machines for tracking fitness

Bloomberg says the introduction of wearable computing devices may signal a new direction for the consumer electronics industry similar to what the ipad did for the tablet market

Cloud technology and the Internet of things bring services and objects to the connected world Cloud technology can deliver any computer application or service over a network or the internet with minimal local software or processing power required in essence cloud computing involves storing and accessing data and programs over the internet instead of onersquos hard drive as described in a March 13 article in pC Mag ldquoWith an online connection cloud computing can be done anywhere anytimerdquo it says

the McKinsey report adds ldquothe cloud is enabling the explosive growth of internet-based services from search to streaming media to offline storage of personal data (photos books music) as well as the background processing capabilities that enable mobile internet devices to do things like respond to spoken commands to ask for directionsrdquo

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

18

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

17

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

everyday objects are being equipped with networked sensors and actuators bringing them to the connected world the internet of things is another technology mentioned in the McKinsey report that can impact people business society government and health in a big way this enables machinery shipments infrastructure and devices ldquoto monitor their environment report their status receive instructions and even take action based on the information they receiverdquo

tech expert Jonathan Strickland explains in a video from How Stuff Works how the internet of things can impact the way we live by walking us through the living room of the future He describes how sensors are taking information from real physical objects and uploading it to the internet ldquoitrsquos a world where your environment transforms as you walk through it because technology that you may not even be aware of is monitoring your every moverdquo he says the video shows how objects in

The Industrial revolution meets the Information agePerhaps itrsquos fitting that one of the 20th-century giants of the Industrial Revolution figure a new path to tread in the 21st century

In November 2012 General Electric (GE) announced that the world was ldquoon the threshold of a new era of innovation and change with the rise of the Industrial Internetrdquo a term it coined in a report by Peter C Evans GErsquos director of global strategy and analytics and Marco Annunziata GErsquos chief economist The report it said discusses ldquothe convergence of the global industrial system with the power of advanced computing analytics low-cost sensing and new levels of connectivity permitted by the Internetrdquo

A separate report in the Massachusetts Institute of Technologyrsquos MIT Technology Review also in November 2012 broke down GErsquos vision of the Industrial Internet thusly ldquoThe term coined inside GErsquos RampD division reflects the companyrsquos hope that adding more sensors to machinery will result in a deluge of data that will in turn let companies squeeze more efficiency out of locomotives jet engines MRI machines and other equipment GE sellsrdquo

According to the report GE is set to invest $15 billion in the idea over a three-year period looking at ways for example to sift through all the data to predict when GErsquos jet engines in service will need maintenance And in December 2012 it put some more money where its mouth was with GE Aviation and Accenture announcing the formation of Taleris a joint venture providing airlines and cargo carriers around the world with ldquointelligent operations services focused on improving efficiency by leveraging aircraft performance data prognostics recovery and planning optimization solutionsrdquo

But aviation is not the only area where GE sees potential in marrying machines to analytics and connectivity ldquoThese innovations promise to bring greater speed and efficiency to industries as diverse as aviation rail transportation power generation oil and gas development and health care deliveryrdquo Evans and Annunziata predict in their aforementioned report as summed up in the GE announcement

And the potential appears to be enormous The Industrial Internet according to Evans and Annunziata has the potential to boost average incomes in the United States by 25 to 40 over the next 20 years and to lift growth back to levels not seen since the late 1990s And If the rest of the world achieved just half of the US productivity gains the Industrial Internet could add from $10 to $15 trillion to global GDP ndash the size of todayrsquos US economy ndash over the same period the authors predicted

We will live in a world blanketed by sensors with objects that react to us tell us what we need and customize the environment around us Source How Stuff Works

the room can automatically identify you and tap into a cloud-based profile of your preferences such as room temperature music and lighting the room also knows whether you had a stressful day based on the

calendar app of your phone or the biosensors that detect heart rate and blood pressure

Challenges of being constantly connected Nevertheless the digital infrastructure must be able to support the growing number of devices accessing the internet today cellular networks such as 3g and 4g and Wi-fi are being used in homes offices and public spaces the McKinsey report predicts that over the coming decade 5g cellular networks satellite services and possibly long-range Wi-fi could become the next network advances ldquothese technologies will need to fight for increasingly scarce wireless frequencies but new approaches to dynamically sharing spectrum such as software-defined radios could help ease the crunchrdquo it notes

Meanwhile a June 21 piece in the Harvard Business Review Blog Network raises security concerns over the internet of things it notes ldquoparadoxically the

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

The long road to FacebookAs social media takes hold of the Information Age and sends us hurtling toward moving past bouncing off and occasionally colliding with all sorts of information at warp speed the very idea of a history of social media seems quaint and even dated And yet we are reminded now and then that in order to know to where we are going we need to know from where we came

Canadian journalist and blogger Cendrine Marrouat with some help from Karim Benyagoub provides us with a brief if unofficial history of social media as summed up in a neat infographic that takes us from the origins of the Internet (as Arpanet) in 1969 to its 24-billion population of users by 2012 including milestones and stopovers along the way that a new generation might have been too young to remember (eg the first e-mail was sent in 1971 a company called ICQ was doing instant messaging before AOL Google or Yahoo and Hotmail one of the first web-based commercial e-mail services was taken over by Microsoft in 1997 a year after it was set up by Sabeer Bhatia and Jack Smith as we recall) Image credit Karim Benyagoub and Cendrine Marrouat

20

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

19

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

very principle that makes the [internet of things] so powerful mdash the potential to share data instantly with everyone and everything (every authorized entity that is) mdash creates a huge cybersecurity threatrdquo it will allow data to be shared more widely than ever and in real time

protecting your privacy will be a challenge Since information is shared or stored on a variety of devices it will be hard to keep track of what kind of data is being made available to the public imagine your wearable device for instance sending out information about your location the person you are with which items you bought your health and fitness levels and the like taken together these mobile devices coupled with the internet of things have the potential to build a treasure trove of data about you

without you even knowing it

And then therersquos the psychological cost of being constantly connected in her teD talk in february 2012 Sherry turkle Massachusetts

institute of technology (Mit) professor and director of the Mit initiative on technology and Self argues that ldquothose little deviceshellipare so psychologically powerful that they donrsquot only change what we do they change who we arerdquo She talks about how being constantly connected and attached to our devices can get in the way of us understanding one another and ourselves

in many ways technologies that allow us to build a network of connections in our daily lives have transformed the world for the better And yet these virtual connections can only make sense if real-life relationships are not substituted but cultivated

Sherry Turkle professor at MIT talks about how technology and the need to be connected also has the potential to make us feel more alone

supergraphicWIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

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21

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The Age of Autonomy Is Coming Soon to a Highway Near You

After the advent of driverless cars will we be ready for pilotless planesBy Victoria Fritz

STRATEGY POINTS

Driverless cars are coming soon and people are looking forward to it according to at least one global survey

Unmanned passenger planes are also on the drawing board and the testing ground

Ghost drivers on the horizon

the age of autonomous transportation is dawning featuring vehicles that can maneuver with reduced or even no human intervention as identified in the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the technology for driverless vehicles is already available or at least fast developing googlersquos driverless cars have logged over 300000 miles since 2010 without accidents (one accident in 2011 occurred when someone was driving) according to a May 13 article posted on the United States-based public Broadcasting Service (pBS) site

While googlersquos cars rack up the mileage BMW toyota and general Motors continue developing their own models Across the Atlantic in Spain Volvo upped googlersquos feat by queuing three cars behind a lorry for 200 kilometers on a busy highway as reported in Forbes in May 2012 in a practice called road-training ie making a train from queued cars)

The promised benefits of driverless technology Driverless technology offers many benefits not the least of which would be increased safety the majority of road accidents collectively responsible for over a million deaths a year according to World Bank figures are caused by human error Up to 90 of road accidents can be attributed to human error as reported in April 2011 on alertdrivingcom Removing man from the equation would theoretically reduce the number of road accidents significantly saving anywhere from 30000 to 150000 lives a year according to the McKinsey report

A special report on driverless cars ldquolook no handsrdquo in the April 20 edition of The Economist

cites decreased congestion as another benefit in a demonstration Volvo packed autonomous cars together in ldquoroad trainsrdquo this increases road capacity while easing traffic Road trains also create an aerodynamic effect that increases fuel efficiency which leads to a reduction in Co2 emissions A 1995 study by the University of Southern California showed that it could improve fuel efficiency by up to 30

freeing up the time allotted for driving also means more time for work or leisure increasing human productivity people can now start working even while on their way to the office What would that do to the official eight-hour workday

According to the McKinsey report the likely major impediments to a quick adoption of this new technology are creating the necessary regulatory frameworks and gaining public support

reducing one risk but begetting others the pBS article examined certain concerns faced by the driverless vehicle concept While it decreases one danger (by reducing or eliminating human error) it presents another ndash the possibility of computer error especially at high speeds At present car sensors are not able to cope with extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain or snow-covered streets

less obvious visual cues such as a construction project could be lost on a driverless vehicle Judgment calls such as when to go at a four-way stop could be tricky for such cars

An April 13 blog post on the Harvard law School communityrsquos discussion site City law discusses the legal aspects of driverless cars So far Nevada California and florida are the only states that have passed laws addressing automated vehicles With its onset driving licensure laws would need an overhaul

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

HoW We TraveL

24

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

23

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

the traffic safety governing body would need to promulgate new standards to address the technology and software it poses questions if a self-driving car hits a pedestrian who is liable

Carmakers already working on driverless cars Despite the lack of a regulatory framework according to the McKinsey report the following large carmakers are already developing their own versions general Motors toyota Mercedes-Benz Audi BMW and Volvo

Machine vision is a key capability in achieving vehicle autonomy with other systems working in tandem (for a quick review of the technologies involved refer to ldquothe Car of the future A thinking green Machinerdquo in the March 26 2012 issue of The CenSEI Report)

Costs prohibitive now but coming down drastically later Chunka Mui a contributor at Forbes magazine analyzed the obstacles to public acceptance of the driverless car in a January 2013 piece He listed cost as prohibitive at present saying estimated cost of each google driverless car is more than US$300000 However using the trajectory of the cost of a gigabyte of memory as an analogue ndash in 1981 a gigabyte cost US$300000 going down to US$10000 a decade later and then down to US$10 another 10 years later and now it costs less than 10 cents ndash he predicts that driverless technology will see the same drastic reduction in cost

Mui also looked into the question of public adoption people will be reluctant to let go of the steering wheel But he believes that once society sees the benefits people will come to trust the technology

Public trust still lacking An April 20 Christian Science Monitor blog post by Richard Read also encouraged people in the know to talk

with others about the driverless car in order to speed up development Read was recounting tips given during the Society of Automotive engineersrsquo World Congress in Detroit Michigan that week participants agreed the technology is already here but also identified the main impediment as lack of public trust first people need to become aware of autonomous vehicles Second they need to be convinced of their reliability

to get a better idea of the public pulse on this matter Cisco conducted a survey earlier this year and published its results in May on gigaomcom the global survey had 1514 respondents aged 18 and older of the total number surveyed across the globe 57 said they would ride a driverless car as reported by Kevin fitchard in his May 14 blog post in gigaoM discussing the Cisco survey

Countries however varied widely in their respective national responses Brazil topped the charts with a 95 approval rating followed by india and China Japan was a low 28 likewise western european countries were lukewarm in the United States where many prototypes of driverless technology are being tested the approval rating was 60 above the global average

fitchard himself acknowledged unwllingness to give up total control of the car saying he was more comfortable with some autonomy

CISCo GLoBaL SUrveYPUBLIC aCCePTaNCe oF DrIverLeSS CarS

Table from ldquoCisco survey Consumers are getting comfortable with the idea of the driverless carrdquo Kevin Fitchard as posted on GigaoM May 14 2013

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

25

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

CAPTION YouTube

He also questioned the veracity of an industry-sponsored survey saying that Cisco even though it wasnrsquot general Motors or google still had a stake in the matter But his observation of the generally thorough nature of Cisco surveys put his own doubts to rest

When will the future arrive there is some discussion as to when this new technology will be available to the mass market the panel at SAe sees this happening in 2025 according to a Wall Street Journal April 17 online article general Motors was reported as predicting the public debut of driverless cars in 2020 as reported in the aforementioned issue of The CenSEI Report google makes the boldest prediction and is hoping to offer this technology to the public by 2018

Ghost pilots in the sky

Whenever the driverless car gets here do you think yoursquoll be ready for airplanes that pilot themselves

A team at the Massachusetts institute of technology have developed an autonomous robotic plane capable of flying indoors without aid of a remote control device this could contribute significantly to the development of an pilotless passenger airplane Click on the image below for a video of the autonomous robotic plane in action

Getting a charge from driving

Autonomous or automatic to be more accurate charging is another way of increasing efficiency on the road Ever since electric vehicles debuted on the market the main obstacle has always been the battery ndash the cost the size the storage capacity Engineers are now working on solving that problem by creating an automatic charging system that is one built into the road Back in 2010 this system was launched in London as discussed in an article on Englandrsquos autocar website The system design is shown in the following graphic

An article appearing in the BBCrsquos Future section in March 2012 also mentions this ldquowireless highwayrdquo as a way to address electric car motoristsrsquo range anxiety (fear of losing power on the road) More recently on June 18 Business Insider ran an article that mentions Volvorsquos own project in partnership with Swedish power company Alstom to create a road that charges vehicles as they drive over it

1 - Power

2 - Transmitter

4 - Receiver Pad

5 - System

6 - Battery

3 - Wireless Electricity amp Data

Flying by the numbersWhen commercial flying was first introduced people took a long time to get over their fear of flying When they realized it was relatively safe they hopped on planes in droves Would people be willing to ride a pilotless plane as well

A November 2012 piece in The Economist looked into the possibility of pilotless aircraft taking off even before driverless cars and conducted its own survey on whether its readers thought pilot-less aircraft would take off before driverless cars This writerrsquos own misgivings notwithstanding the survey results indicate that an overwhelming 70 of respondents believe the pilotless plane will happen even before the driverless car

Most of the required technology such as autopilot or self-landing is already there the Economist piece observed The afore-mentioned ASTRAEA tests are about ascertaining whether these capabilities can be achieved without a pilot in the cockpit and in compliance with existing rules of air travel

you voted NoTotal votes 8486

Voting opened on Nov 23rd 2012

Graphic from The Economist poll ldquoWill pilotless airplanes takeoff before driverless carsrdquo generated from writerrsquos own participation in survey

in June this year a trial on pilotless passenger airplanes was conducted in the United Kingdom as reported on the site of The Engineer magazine the age of unmanned aircraft is drawing near the report declared qualifying that this was apart from already present military drones and remotely operated miniature vehicles British engineers announced that an adapted conventional

Jetstream passenger plane flew 500 miles without aid of a human operator under the aegis of AStRAeA the UKrsquos cross-industry project to develop technology and regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or systems (UAS) the report consisted of an interview where experts spoke at length about this new technologyrsquos issues

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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27

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

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29

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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Page 9: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

18

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

17

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

everyday objects are being equipped with networked sensors and actuators bringing them to the connected world the internet of things is another technology mentioned in the McKinsey report that can impact people business society government and health in a big way this enables machinery shipments infrastructure and devices ldquoto monitor their environment report their status receive instructions and even take action based on the information they receiverdquo

tech expert Jonathan Strickland explains in a video from How Stuff Works how the internet of things can impact the way we live by walking us through the living room of the future He describes how sensors are taking information from real physical objects and uploading it to the internet ldquoitrsquos a world where your environment transforms as you walk through it because technology that you may not even be aware of is monitoring your every moverdquo he says the video shows how objects in

The Industrial revolution meets the Information agePerhaps itrsquos fitting that one of the 20th-century giants of the Industrial Revolution figure a new path to tread in the 21st century

In November 2012 General Electric (GE) announced that the world was ldquoon the threshold of a new era of innovation and change with the rise of the Industrial Internetrdquo a term it coined in a report by Peter C Evans GErsquos director of global strategy and analytics and Marco Annunziata GErsquos chief economist The report it said discusses ldquothe convergence of the global industrial system with the power of advanced computing analytics low-cost sensing and new levels of connectivity permitted by the Internetrdquo

A separate report in the Massachusetts Institute of Technologyrsquos MIT Technology Review also in November 2012 broke down GErsquos vision of the Industrial Internet thusly ldquoThe term coined inside GErsquos RampD division reflects the companyrsquos hope that adding more sensors to machinery will result in a deluge of data that will in turn let companies squeeze more efficiency out of locomotives jet engines MRI machines and other equipment GE sellsrdquo

According to the report GE is set to invest $15 billion in the idea over a three-year period looking at ways for example to sift through all the data to predict when GErsquos jet engines in service will need maintenance And in December 2012 it put some more money where its mouth was with GE Aviation and Accenture announcing the formation of Taleris a joint venture providing airlines and cargo carriers around the world with ldquointelligent operations services focused on improving efficiency by leveraging aircraft performance data prognostics recovery and planning optimization solutionsrdquo

But aviation is not the only area where GE sees potential in marrying machines to analytics and connectivity ldquoThese innovations promise to bring greater speed and efficiency to industries as diverse as aviation rail transportation power generation oil and gas development and health care deliveryrdquo Evans and Annunziata predict in their aforementioned report as summed up in the GE announcement

And the potential appears to be enormous The Industrial Internet according to Evans and Annunziata has the potential to boost average incomes in the United States by 25 to 40 over the next 20 years and to lift growth back to levels not seen since the late 1990s And If the rest of the world achieved just half of the US productivity gains the Industrial Internet could add from $10 to $15 trillion to global GDP ndash the size of todayrsquos US economy ndash over the same period the authors predicted

We will live in a world blanketed by sensors with objects that react to us tell us what we need and customize the environment around us Source How Stuff Works

the room can automatically identify you and tap into a cloud-based profile of your preferences such as room temperature music and lighting the room also knows whether you had a stressful day based on the

calendar app of your phone or the biosensors that detect heart rate and blood pressure

Challenges of being constantly connected Nevertheless the digital infrastructure must be able to support the growing number of devices accessing the internet today cellular networks such as 3g and 4g and Wi-fi are being used in homes offices and public spaces the McKinsey report predicts that over the coming decade 5g cellular networks satellite services and possibly long-range Wi-fi could become the next network advances ldquothese technologies will need to fight for increasingly scarce wireless frequencies but new approaches to dynamically sharing spectrum such as software-defined radios could help ease the crunchrdquo it notes

Meanwhile a June 21 piece in the Harvard Business Review Blog Network raises security concerns over the internet of things it notes ldquoparadoxically the

WIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

The long road to FacebookAs social media takes hold of the Information Age and sends us hurtling toward moving past bouncing off and occasionally colliding with all sorts of information at warp speed the very idea of a history of social media seems quaint and even dated And yet we are reminded now and then that in order to know to where we are going we need to know from where we came

Canadian journalist and blogger Cendrine Marrouat with some help from Karim Benyagoub provides us with a brief if unofficial history of social media as summed up in a neat infographic that takes us from the origins of the Internet (as Arpanet) in 1969 to its 24-billion population of users by 2012 including milestones and stopovers along the way that a new generation might have been too young to remember (eg the first e-mail was sent in 1971 a company called ICQ was doing instant messaging before AOL Google or Yahoo and Hotmail one of the first web-based commercial e-mail services was taken over by Microsoft in 1997 a year after it was set up by Sabeer Bhatia and Jack Smith as we recall) Image credit Karim Benyagoub and Cendrine Marrouat

20

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

19

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

very principle that makes the [internet of things] so powerful mdash the potential to share data instantly with everyone and everything (every authorized entity that is) mdash creates a huge cybersecurity threatrdquo it will allow data to be shared more widely than ever and in real time

protecting your privacy will be a challenge Since information is shared or stored on a variety of devices it will be hard to keep track of what kind of data is being made available to the public imagine your wearable device for instance sending out information about your location the person you are with which items you bought your health and fitness levels and the like taken together these mobile devices coupled with the internet of things have the potential to build a treasure trove of data about you

without you even knowing it

And then therersquos the psychological cost of being constantly connected in her teD talk in february 2012 Sherry turkle Massachusetts

institute of technology (Mit) professor and director of the Mit initiative on technology and Self argues that ldquothose little deviceshellipare so psychologically powerful that they donrsquot only change what we do they change who we arerdquo She talks about how being constantly connected and attached to our devices can get in the way of us understanding one another and ourselves

in many ways technologies that allow us to build a network of connections in our daily lives have transformed the world for the better And yet these virtual connections can only make sense if real-life relationships are not substituted but cultivated

Sherry Turkle professor at MIT talks about how technology and the need to be connected also has the potential to make us feel more alone

supergraphicWIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

22

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

21

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The Age of Autonomy Is Coming Soon to a Highway Near You

After the advent of driverless cars will we be ready for pilotless planesBy Victoria Fritz

STRATEGY POINTS

Driverless cars are coming soon and people are looking forward to it according to at least one global survey

Unmanned passenger planes are also on the drawing board and the testing ground

Ghost drivers on the horizon

the age of autonomous transportation is dawning featuring vehicles that can maneuver with reduced or even no human intervention as identified in the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the technology for driverless vehicles is already available or at least fast developing googlersquos driverless cars have logged over 300000 miles since 2010 without accidents (one accident in 2011 occurred when someone was driving) according to a May 13 article posted on the United States-based public Broadcasting Service (pBS) site

While googlersquos cars rack up the mileage BMW toyota and general Motors continue developing their own models Across the Atlantic in Spain Volvo upped googlersquos feat by queuing three cars behind a lorry for 200 kilometers on a busy highway as reported in Forbes in May 2012 in a practice called road-training ie making a train from queued cars)

The promised benefits of driverless technology Driverless technology offers many benefits not the least of which would be increased safety the majority of road accidents collectively responsible for over a million deaths a year according to World Bank figures are caused by human error Up to 90 of road accidents can be attributed to human error as reported in April 2011 on alertdrivingcom Removing man from the equation would theoretically reduce the number of road accidents significantly saving anywhere from 30000 to 150000 lives a year according to the McKinsey report

A special report on driverless cars ldquolook no handsrdquo in the April 20 edition of The Economist

cites decreased congestion as another benefit in a demonstration Volvo packed autonomous cars together in ldquoroad trainsrdquo this increases road capacity while easing traffic Road trains also create an aerodynamic effect that increases fuel efficiency which leads to a reduction in Co2 emissions A 1995 study by the University of Southern California showed that it could improve fuel efficiency by up to 30

freeing up the time allotted for driving also means more time for work or leisure increasing human productivity people can now start working even while on their way to the office What would that do to the official eight-hour workday

According to the McKinsey report the likely major impediments to a quick adoption of this new technology are creating the necessary regulatory frameworks and gaining public support

reducing one risk but begetting others the pBS article examined certain concerns faced by the driverless vehicle concept While it decreases one danger (by reducing or eliminating human error) it presents another ndash the possibility of computer error especially at high speeds At present car sensors are not able to cope with extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain or snow-covered streets

less obvious visual cues such as a construction project could be lost on a driverless vehicle Judgment calls such as when to go at a four-way stop could be tricky for such cars

An April 13 blog post on the Harvard law School communityrsquos discussion site City law discusses the legal aspects of driverless cars So far Nevada California and florida are the only states that have passed laws addressing automated vehicles With its onset driving licensure laws would need an overhaul

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

HoW We TraveL

24

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

23

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

the traffic safety governing body would need to promulgate new standards to address the technology and software it poses questions if a self-driving car hits a pedestrian who is liable

Carmakers already working on driverless cars Despite the lack of a regulatory framework according to the McKinsey report the following large carmakers are already developing their own versions general Motors toyota Mercedes-Benz Audi BMW and Volvo

Machine vision is a key capability in achieving vehicle autonomy with other systems working in tandem (for a quick review of the technologies involved refer to ldquothe Car of the future A thinking green Machinerdquo in the March 26 2012 issue of The CenSEI Report)

Costs prohibitive now but coming down drastically later Chunka Mui a contributor at Forbes magazine analyzed the obstacles to public acceptance of the driverless car in a January 2013 piece He listed cost as prohibitive at present saying estimated cost of each google driverless car is more than US$300000 However using the trajectory of the cost of a gigabyte of memory as an analogue ndash in 1981 a gigabyte cost US$300000 going down to US$10000 a decade later and then down to US$10 another 10 years later and now it costs less than 10 cents ndash he predicts that driverless technology will see the same drastic reduction in cost

Mui also looked into the question of public adoption people will be reluctant to let go of the steering wheel But he believes that once society sees the benefits people will come to trust the technology

Public trust still lacking An April 20 Christian Science Monitor blog post by Richard Read also encouraged people in the know to talk

with others about the driverless car in order to speed up development Read was recounting tips given during the Society of Automotive engineersrsquo World Congress in Detroit Michigan that week participants agreed the technology is already here but also identified the main impediment as lack of public trust first people need to become aware of autonomous vehicles Second they need to be convinced of their reliability

to get a better idea of the public pulse on this matter Cisco conducted a survey earlier this year and published its results in May on gigaomcom the global survey had 1514 respondents aged 18 and older of the total number surveyed across the globe 57 said they would ride a driverless car as reported by Kevin fitchard in his May 14 blog post in gigaoM discussing the Cisco survey

Countries however varied widely in their respective national responses Brazil topped the charts with a 95 approval rating followed by india and China Japan was a low 28 likewise western european countries were lukewarm in the United States where many prototypes of driverless technology are being tested the approval rating was 60 above the global average

fitchard himself acknowledged unwllingness to give up total control of the car saying he was more comfortable with some autonomy

CISCo GLoBaL SUrveYPUBLIC aCCePTaNCe oF DrIverLeSS CarS

Table from ldquoCisco survey Consumers are getting comfortable with the idea of the driverless carrdquo Kevin Fitchard as posted on GigaoM May 14 2013

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

26

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

25

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

CAPTION YouTube

He also questioned the veracity of an industry-sponsored survey saying that Cisco even though it wasnrsquot general Motors or google still had a stake in the matter But his observation of the generally thorough nature of Cisco surveys put his own doubts to rest

When will the future arrive there is some discussion as to when this new technology will be available to the mass market the panel at SAe sees this happening in 2025 according to a Wall Street Journal April 17 online article general Motors was reported as predicting the public debut of driverless cars in 2020 as reported in the aforementioned issue of The CenSEI Report google makes the boldest prediction and is hoping to offer this technology to the public by 2018

Ghost pilots in the sky

Whenever the driverless car gets here do you think yoursquoll be ready for airplanes that pilot themselves

A team at the Massachusetts institute of technology have developed an autonomous robotic plane capable of flying indoors without aid of a remote control device this could contribute significantly to the development of an pilotless passenger airplane Click on the image below for a video of the autonomous robotic plane in action

Getting a charge from driving

Autonomous or automatic to be more accurate charging is another way of increasing efficiency on the road Ever since electric vehicles debuted on the market the main obstacle has always been the battery ndash the cost the size the storage capacity Engineers are now working on solving that problem by creating an automatic charging system that is one built into the road Back in 2010 this system was launched in London as discussed in an article on Englandrsquos autocar website The system design is shown in the following graphic

An article appearing in the BBCrsquos Future section in March 2012 also mentions this ldquowireless highwayrdquo as a way to address electric car motoristsrsquo range anxiety (fear of losing power on the road) More recently on June 18 Business Insider ran an article that mentions Volvorsquos own project in partnership with Swedish power company Alstom to create a road that charges vehicles as they drive over it

1 - Power

2 - Transmitter

4 - Receiver Pad

5 - System

6 - Battery

3 - Wireless Electricity amp Data

Flying by the numbersWhen commercial flying was first introduced people took a long time to get over their fear of flying When they realized it was relatively safe they hopped on planes in droves Would people be willing to ride a pilotless plane as well

A November 2012 piece in The Economist looked into the possibility of pilotless aircraft taking off even before driverless cars and conducted its own survey on whether its readers thought pilot-less aircraft would take off before driverless cars This writerrsquos own misgivings notwithstanding the survey results indicate that an overwhelming 70 of respondents believe the pilotless plane will happen even before the driverless car

Most of the required technology such as autopilot or self-landing is already there the Economist piece observed The afore-mentioned ASTRAEA tests are about ascertaining whether these capabilities can be achieved without a pilot in the cockpit and in compliance with existing rules of air travel

you voted NoTotal votes 8486

Voting opened on Nov 23rd 2012

Graphic from The Economist poll ldquoWill pilotless airplanes takeoff before driverless carsrdquo generated from writerrsquos own participation in survey

in June this year a trial on pilotless passenger airplanes was conducted in the United Kingdom as reported on the site of The Engineer magazine the age of unmanned aircraft is drawing near the report declared qualifying that this was apart from already present military drones and remotely operated miniature vehicles British engineers announced that an adapted conventional

Jetstream passenger plane flew 500 miles without aid of a human operator under the aegis of AStRAeA the UKrsquos cross-industry project to develop technology and regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or systems (UAS) the report consisted of an interview where experts spoke at length about this new technologyrsquos issues

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

27

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

29

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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Page 10: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

The long road to FacebookAs social media takes hold of the Information Age and sends us hurtling toward moving past bouncing off and occasionally colliding with all sorts of information at warp speed the very idea of a history of social media seems quaint and even dated And yet we are reminded now and then that in order to know to where we are going we need to know from where we came

Canadian journalist and blogger Cendrine Marrouat with some help from Karim Benyagoub provides us with a brief if unofficial history of social media as summed up in a neat infographic that takes us from the origins of the Internet (as Arpanet) in 1969 to its 24-billion population of users by 2012 including milestones and stopovers along the way that a new generation might have been too young to remember (eg the first e-mail was sent in 1971 a company called ICQ was doing instant messaging before AOL Google or Yahoo and Hotmail one of the first web-based commercial e-mail services was taken over by Microsoft in 1997 a year after it was set up by Sabeer Bhatia and Jack Smith as we recall) Image credit Karim Benyagoub and Cendrine Marrouat

20

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

19

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

very principle that makes the [internet of things] so powerful mdash the potential to share data instantly with everyone and everything (every authorized entity that is) mdash creates a huge cybersecurity threatrdquo it will allow data to be shared more widely than ever and in real time

protecting your privacy will be a challenge Since information is shared or stored on a variety of devices it will be hard to keep track of what kind of data is being made available to the public imagine your wearable device for instance sending out information about your location the person you are with which items you bought your health and fitness levels and the like taken together these mobile devices coupled with the internet of things have the potential to build a treasure trove of data about you

without you even knowing it

And then therersquos the psychological cost of being constantly connected in her teD talk in february 2012 Sherry turkle Massachusetts

institute of technology (Mit) professor and director of the Mit initiative on technology and Self argues that ldquothose little deviceshellipare so psychologically powerful that they donrsquot only change what we do they change who we arerdquo She talks about how being constantly connected and attached to our devices can get in the way of us understanding one another and ourselves

in many ways technologies that allow us to build a network of connections in our daily lives have transformed the world for the better And yet these virtual connections can only make sense if real-life relationships are not substituted but cultivated

Sherry Turkle professor at MIT talks about how technology and the need to be connected also has the potential to make us feel more alone

supergraphicWIRED INTO THE WORLD WIDE WEB

22

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

21

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The Age of Autonomy Is Coming Soon to a Highway Near You

After the advent of driverless cars will we be ready for pilotless planesBy Victoria Fritz

STRATEGY POINTS

Driverless cars are coming soon and people are looking forward to it according to at least one global survey

Unmanned passenger planes are also on the drawing board and the testing ground

Ghost drivers on the horizon

the age of autonomous transportation is dawning featuring vehicles that can maneuver with reduced or even no human intervention as identified in the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the technology for driverless vehicles is already available or at least fast developing googlersquos driverless cars have logged over 300000 miles since 2010 without accidents (one accident in 2011 occurred when someone was driving) according to a May 13 article posted on the United States-based public Broadcasting Service (pBS) site

While googlersquos cars rack up the mileage BMW toyota and general Motors continue developing their own models Across the Atlantic in Spain Volvo upped googlersquos feat by queuing three cars behind a lorry for 200 kilometers on a busy highway as reported in Forbes in May 2012 in a practice called road-training ie making a train from queued cars)

The promised benefits of driverless technology Driverless technology offers many benefits not the least of which would be increased safety the majority of road accidents collectively responsible for over a million deaths a year according to World Bank figures are caused by human error Up to 90 of road accidents can be attributed to human error as reported in April 2011 on alertdrivingcom Removing man from the equation would theoretically reduce the number of road accidents significantly saving anywhere from 30000 to 150000 lives a year according to the McKinsey report

A special report on driverless cars ldquolook no handsrdquo in the April 20 edition of The Economist

cites decreased congestion as another benefit in a demonstration Volvo packed autonomous cars together in ldquoroad trainsrdquo this increases road capacity while easing traffic Road trains also create an aerodynamic effect that increases fuel efficiency which leads to a reduction in Co2 emissions A 1995 study by the University of Southern California showed that it could improve fuel efficiency by up to 30

freeing up the time allotted for driving also means more time for work or leisure increasing human productivity people can now start working even while on their way to the office What would that do to the official eight-hour workday

According to the McKinsey report the likely major impediments to a quick adoption of this new technology are creating the necessary regulatory frameworks and gaining public support

reducing one risk but begetting others the pBS article examined certain concerns faced by the driverless vehicle concept While it decreases one danger (by reducing or eliminating human error) it presents another ndash the possibility of computer error especially at high speeds At present car sensors are not able to cope with extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain or snow-covered streets

less obvious visual cues such as a construction project could be lost on a driverless vehicle Judgment calls such as when to go at a four-way stop could be tricky for such cars

An April 13 blog post on the Harvard law School communityrsquos discussion site City law discusses the legal aspects of driverless cars So far Nevada California and florida are the only states that have passed laws addressing automated vehicles With its onset driving licensure laws would need an overhaul

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

HoW We TraveL

24

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

23

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

the traffic safety governing body would need to promulgate new standards to address the technology and software it poses questions if a self-driving car hits a pedestrian who is liable

Carmakers already working on driverless cars Despite the lack of a regulatory framework according to the McKinsey report the following large carmakers are already developing their own versions general Motors toyota Mercedes-Benz Audi BMW and Volvo

Machine vision is a key capability in achieving vehicle autonomy with other systems working in tandem (for a quick review of the technologies involved refer to ldquothe Car of the future A thinking green Machinerdquo in the March 26 2012 issue of The CenSEI Report)

Costs prohibitive now but coming down drastically later Chunka Mui a contributor at Forbes magazine analyzed the obstacles to public acceptance of the driverless car in a January 2013 piece He listed cost as prohibitive at present saying estimated cost of each google driverless car is more than US$300000 However using the trajectory of the cost of a gigabyte of memory as an analogue ndash in 1981 a gigabyte cost US$300000 going down to US$10000 a decade later and then down to US$10 another 10 years later and now it costs less than 10 cents ndash he predicts that driverless technology will see the same drastic reduction in cost

Mui also looked into the question of public adoption people will be reluctant to let go of the steering wheel But he believes that once society sees the benefits people will come to trust the technology

Public trust still lacking An April 20 Christian Science Monitor blog post by Richard Read also encouraged people in the know to talk

with others about the driverless car in order to speed up development Read was recounting tips given during the Society of Automotive engineersrsquo World Congress in Detroit Michigan that week participants agreed the technology is already here but also identified the main impediment as lack of public trust first people need to become aware of autonomous vehicles Second they need to be convinced of their reliability

to get a better idea of the public pulse on this matter Cisco conducted a survey earlier this year and published its results in May on gigaomcom the global survey had 1514 respondents aged 18 and older of the total number surveyed across the globe 57 said they would ride a driverless car as reported by Kevin fitchard in his May 14 blog post in gigaoM discussing the Cisco survey

Countries however varied widely in their respective national responses Brazil topped the charts with a 95 approval rating followed by india and China Japan was a low 28 likewise western european countries were lukewarm in the United States where many prototypes of driverless technology are being tested the approval rating was 60 above the global average

fitchard himself acknowledged unwllingness to give up total control of the car saying he was more comfortable with some autonomy

CISCo GLoBaL SUrveYPUBLIC aCCePTaNCe oF DrIverLeSS CarS

Table from ldquoCisco survey Consumers are getting comfortable with the idea of the driverless carrdquo Kevin Fitchard as posted on GigaoM May 14 2013

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

26

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

25

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

CAPTION YouTube

He also questioned the veracity of an industry-sponsored survey saying that Cisco even though it wasnrsquot general Motors or google still had a stake in the matter But his observation of the generally thorough nature of Cisco surveys put his own doubts to rest

When will the future arrive there is some discussion as to when this new technology will be available to the mass market the panel at SAe sees this happening in 2025 according to a Wall Street Journal April 17 online article general Motors was reported as predicting the public debut of driverless cars in 2020 as reported in the aforementioned issue of The CenSEI Report google makes the boldest prediction and is hoping to offer this technology to the public by 2018

Ghost pilots in the sky

Whenever the driverless car gets here do you think yoursquoll be ready for airplanes that pilot themselves

A team at the Massachusetts institute of technology have developed an autonomous robotic plane capable of flying indoors without aid of a remote control device this could contribute significantly to the development of an pilotless passenger airplane Click on the image below for a video of the autonomous robotic plane in action

Getting a charge from driving

Autonomous or automatic to be more accurate charging is another way of increasing efficiency on the road Ever since electric vehicles debuted on the market the main obstacle has always been the battery ndash the cost the size the storage capacity Engineers are now working on solving that problem by creating an automatic charging system that is one built into the road Back in 2010 this system was launched in London as discussed in an article on Englandrsquos autocar website The system design is shown in the following graphic

An article appearing in the BBCrsquos Future section in March 2012 also mentions this ldquowireless highwayrdquo as a way to address electric car motoristsrsquo range anxiety (fear of losing power on the road) More recently on June 18 Business Insider ran an article that mentions Volvorsquos own project in partnership with Swedish power company Alstom to create a road that charges vehicles as they drive over it

1 - Power

2 - Transmitter

4 - Receiver Pad

5 - System

6 - Battery

3 - Wireless Electricity amp Data

Flying by the numbersWhen commercial flying was first introduced people took a long time to get over their fear of flying When they realized it was relatively safe they hopped on planes in droves Would people be willing to ride a pilotless plane as well

A November 2012 piece in The Economist looked into the possibility of pilotless aircraft taking off even before driverless cars and conducted its own survey on whether its readers thought pilot-less aircraft would take off before driverless cars This writerrsquos own misgivings notwithstanding the survey results indicate that an overwhelming 70 of respondents believe the pilotless plane will happen even before the driverless car

Most of the required technology such as autopilot or self-landing is already there the Economist piece observed The afore-mentioned ASTRAEA tests are about ascertaining whether these capabilities can be achieved without a pilot in the cockpit and in compliance with existing rules of air travel

you voted NoTotal votes 8486

Voting opened on Nov 23rd 2012

Graphic from The Economist poll ldquoWill pilotless airplanes takeoff before driverless carsrdquo generated from writerrsquos own participation in survey

in June this year a trial on pilotless passenger airplanes was conducted in the United Kingdom as reported on the site of The Engineer magazine the age of unmanned aircraft is drawing near the report declared qualifying that this was apart from already present military drones and remotely operated miniature vehicles British engineers announced that an adapted conventional

Jetstream passenger plane flew 500 miles without aid of a human operator under the aegis of AStRAeA the UKrsquos cross-industry project to develop technology and regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or systems (UAS) the report consisted of an interview where experts spoke at length about this new technologyrsquos issues

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

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The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

27

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

29

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

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35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

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CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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Page 11: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

22

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

21

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The Age of Autonomy Is Coming Soon to a Highway Near You

After the advent of driverless cars will we be ready for pilotless planesBy Victoria Fritz

STRATEGY POINTS

Driverless cars are coming soon and people are looking forward to it according to at least one global survey

Unmanned passenger planes are also on the drawing board and the testing ground

Ghost drivers on the horizon

the age of autonomous transportation is dawning featuring vehicles that can maneuver with reduced or even no human intervention as identified in the May 2013 McKinsey global institute report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the technology for driverless vehicles is already available or at least fast developing googlersquos driverless cars have logged over 300000 miles since 2010 without accidents (one accident in 2011 occurred when someone was driving) according to a May 13 article posted on the United States-based public Broadcasting Service (pBS) site

While googlersquos cars rack up the mileage BMW toyota and general Motors continue developing their own models Across the Atlantic in Spain Volvo upped googlersquos feat by queuing three cars behind a lorry for 200 kilometers on a busy highway as reported in Forbes in May 2012 in a practice called road-training ie making a train from queued cars)

The promised benefits of driverless technology Driverless technology offers many benefits not the least of which would be increased safety the majority of road accidents collectively responsible for over a million deaths a year according to World Bank figures are caused by human error Up to 90 of road accidents can be attributed to human error as reported in April 2011 on alertdrivingcom Removing man from the equation would theoretically reduce the number of road accidents significantly saving anywhere from 30000 to 150000 lives a year according to the McKinsey report

A special report on driverless cars ldquolook no handsrdquo in the April 20 edition of The Economist

cites decreased congestion as another benefit in a demonstration Volvo packed autonomous cars together in ldquoroad trainsrdquo this increases road capacity while easing traffic Road trains also create an aerodynamic effect that increases fuel efficiency which leads to a reduction in Co2 emissions A 1995 study by the University of Southern California showed that it could improve fuel efficiency by up to 30

freeing up the time allotted for driving also means more time for work or leisure increasing human productivity people can now start working even while on their way to the office What would that do to the official eight-hour workday

According to the McKinsey report the likely major impediments to a quick adoption of this new technology are creating the necessary regulatory frameworks and gaining public support

reducing one risk but begetting others the pBS article examined certain concerns faced by the driverless vehicle concept While it decreases one danger (by reducing or eliminating human error) it presents another ndash the possibility of computer error especially at high speeds At present car sensors are not able to cope with extreme weather conditions such as heavy rain or snow-covered streets

less obvious visual cues such as a construction project could be lost on a driverless vehicle Judgment calls such as when to go at a four-way stop could be tricky for such cars

An April 13 blog post on the Harvard law School communityrsquos discussion site City law discusses the legal aspects of driverless cars So far Nevada California and florida are the only states that have passed laws addressing automated vehicles With its onset driving licensure laws would need an overhaul

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

HoW We TraveL

24

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

23

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

the traffic safety governing body would need to promulgate new standards to address the technology and software it poses questions if a self-driving car hits a pedestrian who is liable

Carmakers already working on driverless cars Despite the lack of a regulatory framework according to the McKinsey report the following large carmakers are already developing their own versions general Motors toyota Mercedes-Benz Audi BMW and Volvo

Machine vision is a key capability in achieving vehicle autonomy with other systems working in tandem (for a quick review of the technologies involved refer to ldquothe Car of the future A thinking green Machinerdquo in the March 26 2012 issue of The CenSEI Report)

Costs prohibitive now but coming down drastically later Chunka Mui a contributor at Forbes magazine analyzed the obstacles to public acceptance of the driverless car in a January 2013 piece He listed cost as prohibitive at present saying estimated cost of each google driverless car is more than US$300000 However using the trajectory of the cost of a gigabyte of memory as an analogue ndash in 1981 a gigabyte cost US$300000 going down to US$10000 a decade later and then down to US$10 another 10 years later and now it costs less than 10 cents ndash he predicts that driverless technology will see the same drastic reduction in cost

Mui also looked into the question of public adoption people will be reluctant to let go of the steering wheel But he believes that once society sees the benefits people will come to trust the technology

Public trust still lacking An April 20 Christian Science Monitor blog post by Richard Read also encouraged people in the know to talk

with others about the driverless car in order to speed up development Read was recounting tips given during the Society of Automotive engineersrsquo World Congress in Detroit Michigan that week participants agreed the technology is already here but also identified the main impediment as lack of public trust first people need to become aware of autonomous vehicles Second they need to be convinced of their reliability

to get a better idea of the public pulse on this matter Cisco conducted a survey earlier this year and published its results in May on gigaomcom the global survey had 1514 respondents aged 18 and older of the total number surveyed across the globe 57 said they would ride a driverless car as reported by Kevin fitchard in his May 14 blog post in gigaoM discussing the Cisco survey

Countries however varied widely in their respective national responses Brazil topped the charts with a 95 approval rating followed by india and China Japan was a low 28 likewise western european countries were lukewarm in the United States where many prototypes of driverless technology are being tested the approval rating was 60 above the global average

fitchard himself acknowledged unwllingness to give up total control of the car saying he was more comfortable with some autonomy

CISCo GLoBaL SUrveYPUBLIC aCCePTaNCe oF DrIverLeSS CarS

Table from ldquoCisco survey Consumers are getting comfortable with the idea of the driverless carrdquo Kevin Fitchard as posted on GigaoM May 14 2013

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

26

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

25

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

CAPTION YouTube

He also questioned the veracity of an industry-sponsored survey saying that Cisco even though it wasnrsquot general Motors or google still had a stake in the matter But his observation of the generally thorough nature of Cisco surveys put his own doubts to rest

When will the future arrive there is some discussion as to when this new technology will be available to the mass market the panel at SAe sees this happening in 2025 according to a Wall Street Journal April 17 online article general Motors was reported as predicting the public debut of driverless cars in 2020 as reported in the aforementioned issue of The CenSEI Report google makes the boldest prediction and is hoping to offer this technology to the public by 2018

Ghost pilots in the sky

Whenever the driverless car gets here do you think yoursquoll be ready for airplanes that pilot themselves

A team at the Massachusetts institute of technology have developed an autonomous robotic plane capable of flying indoors without aid of a remote control device this could contribute significantly to the development of an pilotless passenger airplane Click on the image below for a video of the autonomous robotic plane in action

Getting a charge from driving

Autonomous or automatic to be more accurate charging is another way of increasing efficiency on the road Ever since electric vehicles debuted on the market the main obstacle has always been the battery ndash the cost the size the storage capacity Engineers are now working on solving that problem by creating an automatic charging system that is one built into the road Back in 2010 this system was launched in London as discussed in an article on Englandrsquos autocar website The system design is shown in the following graphic

An article appearing in the BBCrsquos Future section in March 2012 also mentions this ldquowireless highwayrdquo as a way to address electric car motoristsrsquo range anxiety (fear of losing power on the road) More recently on June 18 Business Insider ran an article that mentions Volvorsquos own project in partnership with Swedish power company Alstom to create a road that charges vehicles as they drive over it

1 - Power

2 - Transmitter

4 - Receiver Pad

5 - System

6 - Battery

3 - Wireless Electricity amp Data

Flying by the numbersWhen commercial flying was first introduced people took a long time to get over their fear of flying When they realized it was relatively safe they hopped on planes in droves Would people be willing to ride a pilotless plane as well

A November 2012 piece in The Economist looked into the possibility of pilotless aircraft taking off even before driverless cars and conducted its own survey on whether its readers thought pilot-less aircraft would take off before driverless cars This writerrsquos own misgivings notwithstanding the survey results indicate that an overwhelming 70 of respondents believe the pilotless plane will happen even before the driverless car

Most of the required technology such as autopilot or self-landing is already there the Economist piece observed The afore-mentioned ASTRAEA tests are about ascertaining whether these capabilities can be achieved without a pilot in the cockpit and in compliance with existing rules of air travel

you voted NoTotal votes 8486

Voting opened on Nov 23rd 2012

Graphic from The Economist poll ldquoWill pilotless airplanes takeoff before driverless carsrdquo generated from writerrsquos own participation in survey

in June this year a trial on pilotless passenger airplanes was conducted in the United Kingdom as reported on the site of The Engineer magazine the age of unmanned aircraft is drawing near the report declared qualifying that this was apart from already present military drones and remotely operated miniature vehicles British engineers announced that an adapted conventional

Jetstream passenger plane flew 500 miles without aid of a human operator under the aegis of AStRAeA the UKrsquos cross-industry project to develop technology and regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or systems (UAS) the report consisted of an interview where experts spoke at length about this new technologyrsquos issues

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

28

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

27

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

29

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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Page 12: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

24

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

23

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

the traffic safety governing body would need to promulgate new standards to address the technology and software it poses questions if a self-driving car hits a pedestrian who is liable

Carmakers already working on driverless cars Despite the lack of a regulatory framework according to the McKinsey report the following large carmakers are already developing their own versions general Motors toyota Mercedes-Benz Audi BMW and Volvo

Machine vision is a key capability in achieving vehicle autonomy with other systems working in tandem (for a quick review of the technologies involved refer to ldquothe Car of the future A thinking green Machinerdquo in the March 26 2012 issue of The CenSEI Report)

Costs prohibitive now but coming down drastically later Chunka Mui a contributor at Forbes magazine analyzed the obstacles to public acceptance of the driverless car in a January 2013 piece He listed cost as prohibitive at present saying estimated cost of each google driverless car is more than US$300000 However using the trajectory of the cost of a gigabyte of memory as an analogue ndash in 1981 a gigabyte cost US$300000 going down to US$10000 a decade later and then down to US$10 another 10 years later and now it costs less than 10 cents ndash he predicts that driverless technology will see the same drastic reduction in cost

Mui also looked into the question of public adoption people will be reluctant to let go of the steering wheel But he believes that once society sees the benefits people will come to trust the technology

Public trust still lacking An April 20 Christian Science Monitor blog post by Richard Read also encouraged people in the know to talk

with others about the driverless car in order to speed up development Read was recounting tips given during the Society of Automotive engineersrsquo World Congress in Detroit Michigan that week participants agreed the technology is already here but also identified the main impediment as lack of public trust first people need to become aware of autonomous vehicles Second they need to be convinced of their reliability

to get a better idea of the public pulse on this matter Cisco conducted a survey earlier this year and published its results in May on gigaomcom the global survey had 1514 respondents aged 18 and older of the total number surveyed across the globe 57 said they would ride a driverless car as reported by Kevin fitchard in his May 14 blog post in gigaoM discussing the Cisco survey

Countries however varied widely in their respective national responses Brazil topped the charts with a 95 approval rating followed by india and China Japan was a low 28 likewise western european countries were lukewarm in the United States where many prototypes of driverless technology are being tested the approval rating was 60 above the global average

fitchard himself acknowledged unwllingness to give up total control of the car saying he was more comfortable with some autonomy

CISCo GLoBaL SUrveYPUBLIC aCCePTaNCe oF DrIverLeSS CarS

Table from ldquoCisco survey Consumers are getting comfortable with the idea of the driverless carrdquo Kevin Fitchard as posted on GigaoM May 14 2013

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

26

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

25

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

CAPTION YouTube

He also questioned the veracity of an industry-sponsored survey saying that Cisco even though it wasnrsquot general Motors or google still had a stake in the matter But his observation of the generally thorough nature of Cisco surveys put his own doubts to rest

When will the future arrive there is some discussion as to when this new technology will be available to the mass market the panel at SAe sees this happening in 2025 according to a Wall Street Journal April 17 online article general Motors was reported as predicting the public debut of driverless cars in 2020 as reported in the aforementioned issue of The CenSEI Report google makes the boldest prediction and is hoping to offer this technology to the public by 2018

Ghost pilots in the sky

Whenever the driverless car gets here do you think yoursquoll be ready for airplanes that pilot themselves

A team at the Massachusetts institute of technology have developed an autonomous robotic plane capable of flying indoors without aid of a remote control device this could contribute significantly to the development of an pilotless passenger airplane Click on the image below for a video of the autonomous robotic plane in action

Getting a charge from driving

Autonomous or automatic to be more accurate charging is another way of increasing efficiency on the road Ever since electric vehicles debuted on the market the main obstacle has always been the battery ndash the cost the size the storage capacity Engineers are now working on solving that problem by creating an automatic charging system that is one built into the road Back in 2010 this system was launched in London as discussed in an article on Englandrsquos autocar website The system design is shown in the following graphic

An article appearing in the BBCrsquos Future section in March 2012 also mentions this ldquowireless highwayrdquo as a way to address electric car motoristsrsquo range anxiety (fear of losing power on the road) More recently on June 18 Business Insider ran an article that mentions Volvorsquos own project in partnership with Swedish power company Alstom to create a road that charges vehicles as they drive over it

1 - Power

2 - Transmitter

4 - Receiver Pad

5 - System

6 - Battery

3 - Wireless Electricity amp Data

Flying by the numbersWhen commercial flying was first introduced people took a long time to get over their fear of flying When they realized it was relatively safe they hopped on planes in droves Would people be willing to ride a pilotless plane as well

A November 2012 piece in The Economist looked into the possibility of pilotless aircraft taking off even before driverless cars and conducted its own survey on whether its readers thought pilot-less aircraft would take off before driverless cars This writerrsquos own misgivings notwithstanding the survey results indicate that an overwhelming 70 of respondents believe the pilotless plane will happen even before the driverless car

Most of the required technology such as autopilot or self-landing is already there the Economist piece observed The afore-mentioned ASTRAEA tests are about ascertaining whether these capabilities can be achieved without a pilot in the cockpit and in compliance with existing rules of air travel

you voted NoTotal votes 8486

Voting opened on Nov 23rd 2012

Graphic from The Economist poll ldquoWill pilotless airplanes takeoff before driverless carsrdquo generated from writerrsquos own participation in survey

in June this year a trial on pilotless passenger airplanes was conducted in the United Kingdom as reported on the site of The Engineer magazine the age of unmanned aircraft is drawing near the report declared qualifying that this was apart from already present military drones and remotely operated miniature vehicles British engineers announced that an adapted conventional

Jetstream passenger plane flew 500 miles without aid of a human operator under the aegis of AStRAeA the UKrsquos cross-industry project to develop technology and regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or systems (UAS) the report consisted of an interview where experts spoke at length about this new technologyrsquos issues

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

28

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

27

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

29

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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Page 13: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

26

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

25

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

CAPTION YouTube

He also questioned the veracity of an industry-sponsored survey saying that Cisco even though it wasnrsquot general Motors or google still had a stake in the matter But his observation of the generally thorough nature of Cisco surveys put his own doubts to rest

When will the future arrive there is some discussion as to when this new technology will be available to the mass market the panel at SAe sees this happening in 2025 according to a Wall Street Journal April 17 online article general Motors was reported as predicting the public debut of driverless cars in 2020 as reported in the aforementioned issue of The CenSEI Report google makes the boldest prediction and is hoping to offer this technology to the public by 2018

Ghost pilots in the sky

Whenever the driverless car gets here do you think yoursquoll be ready for airplanes that pilot themselves

A team at the Massachusetts institute of technology have developed an autonomous robotic plane capable of flying indoors without aid of a remote control device this could contribute significantly to the development of an pilotless passenger airplane Click on the image below for a video of the autonomous robotic plane in action

Getting a charge from driving

Autonomous or automatic to be more accurate charging is another way of increasing efficiency on the road Ever since electric vehicles debuted on the market the main obstacle has always been the battery ndash the cost the size the storage capacity Engineers are now working on solving that problem by creating an automatic charging system that is one built into the road Back in 2010 this system was launched in London as discussed in an article on Englandrsquos autocar website The system design is shown in the following graphic

An article appearing in the BBCrsquos Future section in March 2012 also mentions this ldquowireless highwayrdquo as a way to address electric car motoristsrsquo range anxiety (fear of losing power on the road) More recently on June 18 Business Insider ran an article that mentions Volvorsquos own project in partnership with Swedish power company Alstom to create a road that charges vehicles as they drive over it

1 - Power

2 - Transmitter

4 - Receiver Pad

5 - System

6 - Battery

3 - Wireless Electricity amp Data

Flying by the numbersWhen commercial flying was first introduced people took a long time to get over their fear of flying When they realized it was relatively safe they hopped on planes in droves Would people be willing to ride a pilotless plane as well

A November 2012 piece in The Economist looked into the possibility of pilotless aircraft taking off even before driverless cars and conducted its own survey on whether its readers thought pilot-less aircraft would take off before driverless cars This writerrsquos own misgivings notwithstanding the survey results indicate that an overwhelming 70 of respondents believe the pilotless plane will happen even before the driverless car

Most of the required technology such as autopilot or self-landing is already there the Economist piece observed The afore-mentioned ASTRAEA tests are about ascertaining whether these capabilities can be achieved without a pilot in the cockpit and in compliance with existing rules of air travel

you voted NoTotal votes 8486

Voting opened on Nov 23rd 2012

Graphic from The Economist poll ldquoWill pilotless airplanes takeoff before driverless carsrdquo generated from writerrsquos own participation in survey

in June this year a trial on pilotless passenger airplanes was conducted in the United Kingdom as reported on the site of The Engineer magazine the age of unmanned aircraft is drawing near the report declared qualifying that this was apart from already present military drones and remotely operated miniature vehicles British engineers announced that an adapted conventional

Jetstream passenger plane flew 500 miles without aid of a human operator under the aegis of AStRAeA the UKrsquos cross-industry project to develop technology and regulations for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) or systems (UAS) the report consisted of an interview where experts spoke at length about this new technologyrsquos issues

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

28

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

27

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

29

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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Page 14: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

28

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

27

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

All the basic technologies already exist but the main challenge is the application and integration of these technologies in a certifiable manner said one expert Another expert does not believe that completely pilotless planes will be realized the technology will only will be used to progressively aid pilots increase safety and cost efficiency

other experts believe it is possible but in the long term if it is repeatedly demonstrated that the technology works in a safe and reliable manner then the public will be more willing to accept it

though the reach may be limited surveys have shown that people are open to the driverless car and the unmanned plane With the driverless car emerging economies are more open than the older Western european economies Much work still needs to be done in terms of building support infrastructure fool-proofing computer systems and updating national regulatory frameworks but by the time these are done ndash or perhaps even before ndash we might find the public already prepared for autonomous vehicles on our collective horizon

Many trains are already driverless

Driverless trains are already commonly used in cities including the Philippinesrsquo Line 2 (Recto-Santolan) system It is merely a question of degree According to German manufacturing giant Siemens there are various modes of automation

bull Driver-controlled ndash driven without any assistance systems

bull Partly automated (SCO or Supervision and Control Train Operation)ndash driver still drives and brakes the metro train manually a train protection system continuously monitors its speed supporting information such as current movements are displayed in the driverrsquos cab

bull Semi-automated (STO or Semi-automated Train Operation) - driver starts the train manually then the automatic system takes over precision control of movement between stations stopping and opening of doors

bull Driverless (DTO or Driverless Train Operation) ndash driving without human assistance a train attendant can intervene in emergencies

bull Unattended (UTO or Unattended Train Operation) ndash there is no driver or train attendant on board

The Philippinesrsquo Line 2 is an example of a UTO system also called the Automatic Train Operations system on the Light Rail Transit Authority website

wow tech

The Internet of anywhere and everywhere For the apparent ubiquity of the Internet for some of us itrsquos easy to forget that Internet penetration is still less than 30 worldwide -- per this infographic from The Next Web -- and that there are still areas in the world without Internet access because it hasnrsquot been cost-effective for service providers to lay out broadband cable or fiber-optic digital telephone lines

The Verge reports that Google has gotten approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to operate its nationwide TV

whitespace (TVWS) database which would allow otherwise unconnected people to find unused local television frequencies (channels if you prefer) for online access The company started testing the database in March

The report also points out that TVWS is still an emerging technology and that Google wonrsquot be the first company to provide a whitespace broadband service Earlier Verge reports mention similar experiments in Virginia and North Carolina with the first whitespace network going live in North Carolina in 2012 and the first commercial whitespace network getting launched in rural California in April

Meanwhile Google has also started experimenting with providing Internet access via stratospheric balloons per a June 15 Agence France-Presse report According to the report the balloons to be launched 20 kilometers above Christchurch New Zealand would receive signals from ground stations connected to the Internet and then communicate with each other in the stratosphere Users with Internet antennae attached to the side of their house would then be able to receive and data signals from the balloons According to the report Google hopes ultimately to have a ring of balloons circling the planet providing access to every part of the globe at the same time it cautions that itrsquos ldquoawfully too early to think about covering the entire planetrdquo just now

every picture tells two stories The digital camera might be all around us and the technology might have progressed to the point that ldquoselfiesrdquo have done away with camera auto-timers but it hasnrsquot done away with the need to leave your smartphone tablet or dedicated camera in the hands of a third party while you rush back to your group to be in the shot with them lest you be entirely out of the picture

While it appears that therersquos still no way around rushing back to be in the same shot Gizmodo reports on a new concept that makes photographer and subject part of the same experience a camera that splits in half to capture photographer and subject in the same instant The Duo a working-concept camera developed by Chin-Wei Liao an Innovation Design Engineering student at Londonrsquos Royal College of Art is actually two point-and-shoot cameras held together by magnets but rigged so that both cameras shoot photos when one of the buttons is held down

Image credit Google

THE AGE OF AUTONOMy IS COMING SOON TO A HIGHWAy NEAR yOU

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

29

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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Page 15: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

STraTeGY PoINTSPopulation and economic

growth in emerging countries such as China and India

will result in greater demand for energy

Advanced technologies such as hydraulic fracturing

and horizontal drilling allow us to extract oil and

gas from previously unrecoverable sources but are controversial for their possible

effects on the environment

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 30

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

29

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

POINT amp CLICKAccess online research via your Internet connection by clicking pictures graphics and words in blue

New Ways to Extract Energy

Come with Big Benefits and

Big RisksGrowing demand for

energy is spurring new controversial ways to get it

Light or heat thatrsquos the question facing humanity in the decades ahead as the worldrsquos burning of fossil fuels is raising global temperatures with

devastating impact in the long term Must people really choose between keeping the lights on and cellphones charged or saving the planet by cutting back on use of the juice

to be sure the world needs a lot of energy for its ever-growing population and its increasing economic activity Not to mention the billions of modern gadgets making life more convenient and fun for increasingly affluent communities mdash each of them plugged into the energy grid

Rapidly growing economies China and india for example will be needing twice the energy they consume today as discussed in ldquoglobal trends 2030 Report Alternative Worldrdquo from the United Statesrsquo National intelligence Council (NiC) and ldquointernational energy outlook 2011rdquo from the US energy information Administration (eiA)

the NiC report cites McKinsey global institute in predicting that demand for power in Chinarsquos cities will grow more than double in 2030 from todayrsquos level accounting for roughly 20 of global energy consumption this mainly reflects Chinarsquos

huge population which constitutes the worldrsquos most populous nation and its rapidly growing economy which has driven the countryrsquos high energy demand and the consequent quest to secure energy sources according to country analysis in the eiA study india is another Asian country that will need more energy in the future as its economy grows According to the eiA india is already the worldrsquos fourth-largest energy consumer trailing only the US China and Russia

environmentalists hope that when Asians flick the switch and step on the accelerator the power will come from green sources But in fact as energy demand in Asia dramatically rises it will continue to be provided by coal oil natural gas and even nuclear power the succeeding graph from the Asian Development Bankrsquos ldquooutlook 2013 Asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo projects the composition of Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035 (see following chart)

By Jerome Balinton

FUeL CoMPoSITIoN oF aSIarsquoS eNerGY reQUIreMeNTS

Mtoe = million tons of equivalent Nre = new and renewable energyGraph from ldquooutlook 2013 asiarsquos energy Challengerdquo asian Development Bank

HoW We PoWer UP

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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                            1. Page 21 Off
Page 16: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 32

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

31

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers so far point to dark carbon still keeping most of the lights on in the regionrsquos burgeoning cities According to the ADB report Asiarsquos coal use is expected to increase by 81 while oil consumption approximately doubles and natural gas use more than triples from 2010 to 2035 likewise the report states that use of renewables and nuclear power will also grow but will make a relatively small contribution to Asiarsquos energy requirements by 2035

the ADB report indicates that the energy mix will differ by subregion for one coal plays a much larger role in east and South Asia than in Central Asia South east Asia or the pacific the ADB report also forecasts that natural gas occupies a markedly bigger share of energy mix in Central Asia than in the four other subregions east and South Asia Southeast Asia and the pacific) Relatively low demand in the pacific island-nations will be met by oil and natural gas

Producers turn to unconventional extraction of oil and gas reserves With demand for energy growing amid dwindling conventional oil and gas reserves gas and oil

computer simulations modeling and micro-seismic fracture mapping as well as tilt sensors which monitor rock deformations Modernization of these technologies made way for oil and gas companies to explore and extract more potential deposits of shale

Fracking coupled with horizontal drilling for more efficient recovery for fracking to be more efficient the technology is coupled with horizontal drilling a technique that became standard practice in the 1980s in oil and gas wells according to the global trends report the next graph from the

PROCESS OF EXTRACTING GAS AND OIL FROM SHALE

Illustration from McKinsey Global Institutersquos ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Exhibit 13 p 127

companies have invested to develop new technologies for extracting ldquoreserves that cannot be extracted by conventional drilling methodsrdquo as McKinsey global institute put it in its own May 2013 report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo

the new technologies developed to extract previously unrecoverable oil and gas are hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling

According to the NiC global trends report fracking is a relatively new technology used to extract gas and oil from rock formations having been first developed and commercialized in the late 1940s fracking consists of pumping fluid (usually water) mixed with propping agent (usually sand) and a dozen or so chemical additives to control physical characteristics such as viscosity pH surface tension and scale prevention at high pressure into a well bore

this high pressure creates fractures that propagate through the rock formation the propping holds the fractures open to allow the gas to flow through the opened porous formation once the well has been completed fracking has evolved from using 750 gallons of fluid and 400 pounds of sand in a well to using a million gallons of fluid and 5 million pounds of sand the latest fracturing operations use

McKinsey report shows the location of shale gas and the process of its extraction using technologies fracturing and horizontal drilling

the McKinsey report says that gas- and petroleum-rich shale rock is typically located much deeper below the surface than conventional reserves (two to three miles) Because of shalersquos low permeability which prevents oil and gas from flowing from the rock fracturing is required to release the pressure of overlying and surrounding rocks the NiC report says ldquoproducers have long known shale as lsquosource rockrsquo ndash a

Next-generation Asians may tweet and rally for clean renewable power but the numbers

so far point to dark carbon still keeping

most of the lights on in the regionrsquos

burgeoning cities

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

  1. Button 31
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    18. Page 2017 Off
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Page 17: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 34

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

33

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rock from which oil and natural gas slowly migrated into traditional reservoirs over millions of yearsrdquo

Meet the worldrsquos new energy giants courtesy of shale gas According to the US eiA report on ldquoWorld Shale gas Resources An initial Assessment of 14 Regions outside the United Statesrdquo of 32 countries assessed China the US and Argentina are the countries with highest ldquotechnically recoverable shale gas resourcesrdquo

China has recoverable deposits of 1275 trillion cubic feet the US has 862 trillion cubic feet while and Argentina has 774 trillion cubic feet the combined shale gas reserves in the 32 countries plus the USrsquo

own reserves come up to a total of 6622 trillion cubic feet (See the complete list of 32 countries and the technically recoverable shale gas resources in their basins here)

But in the not so distant future planet earth will reach its limit as far as extracting fossil fuels to provide the energy for running its factories offices and houses A disturbing graph from Rocky Mountain institute indicates that earthrsquos fossil fuel reserves will dry up by 2200 that might seem a long way off but the graph still sends a remarkable message Aside from the ill effects of greenhouse gases that burning fossil fuel creates mankind is also facing the frightening prospect of running

out of fossil fuels the reserves are drying out and so mankind should develop sustainable and cost-competitive ways of extracting energy from renewable energy sources

Apart from the looming depletion of fossil fuels the practice of fracking is not without controversy as discussed in this April 2012 think piece on the greentech Media site While unconventional oil and shale gas recovery has revived US energy production controversy still surrounds the safety

and proper disposal or treatment of fracking water

Impact of burning fossil fuels Where there is fossil fuel there are the greenhouse gases Studies suggest that fossil fuel dependence results in negative impacts on the environment and human health According to pacific environment the burning of fossil fuels produces heat-trapping gases or greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (Co2) methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2o) and fluorinated gases) which are the main causes of the ongoing rise in global atmospheric temperatures

the eiA says these greenhouse gases act like a blanket around the earth trapping energy in the atmosphere

and causing it to warm this phenomenon is called the greenhouse gas effect and is natural and necessary to support the earth However according to the eiA the buildup of greenhouse gases can change earthrsquos climate and result in dangerous effects to human health and welfare and to ecosystems

The danger of continuing dependence on fossil fuels the ADB report makes a clear statement about the impact of energy generation and production to the environment it says that expanding the regionrsquos (Asia) primary energy mix as currently projected would have serious consequences for the environment both in Asia and globally ldquolocal air and water quality water availability land use and global climate all stand to suffer greatly if projected energy demand is met mostly by fossil fuelsrdquo the ADB report says

According to the ADB report sulfur dioxide emissions have grown in Asia even per capita the report states that sulfur dioxide is responsible for the damage acid rain does to lakes and forests and it poses serious human health risks ldquopM10 [particulate Matter] is an especially problematic air pollutant its inhalation strongly associated with heart and chronic lung disease Roughly half of pM10 pollution comes from power plants 30 from transportation and most of the remainder from wildfires and dust stormsrdquo the report states According to the report air pollution is projected to cause more than 36 million deaths per year by 2030 throughout the region mostly in the pRC and india

Where are greenhouse gases coming fromAccording to the EIArsquos graph below the burning of fossil fuels for energy generation (26 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) that would create heat and electricity is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions

It is followed by greenhouse gases emitted from industry (19 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) land use land-use change and forestry (17 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) agriculture (14 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) mostly from the management of agricultural soil livestock rice production and biomass burning transportation (13 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) commercial and residential buildings (8 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) and waste and waste water (3 of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions)

Graph from Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Changersquos ldquoIPCC Fourth assessment report Climate Change 2007rdquo

Forestry 17

Waste and wastewater

3

residential amp Commercial

agriculture 14

Industry 19

Transport 13

energy supply 26

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY SOURCES

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

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        5. Page 74 Off
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        7. Page 96 Off
        8. Page 107 Off
        9. Page 118 Off
        10. Page 129 Off
        11. Page 1310 Off
        12. Page 1411 Off
        13. Page 1512 Off
        14. Page 1613 Off
        15. Page 1714 Off
        16. Page 1815 Off
        17. Page 1916 Off
        18. Page 2017 Off
          1. Button 19
            1. Page 4 Off
            2. Page 51 Off
            3. Page 62 Off
            4. Page 73 Off
            5. Page 84 Off
            6. Page 95 Off
            7. Page 106 Off
            8. Page 117 Off
            9. Page 128 Off
            10. Page 139 Off
            11. Page 1410 Off
            12. Page 1511 Off
            13. Page 1712 Off
            14. Page 1813 Off
            15. Page 1914 Off
            16. Page 2015 Off
              1. Button 20
                1. Page 4 Off
                2. Page 51 Off
                3. Page 62 Off
                4. Page 73 Off
                5. Page 84 Off
                6. Page 95 Off
                7. Page 106 Off
                8. Page 117 Off
                9. Page 128 Off
                10. Page 139 Off
                11. Page 1410 Off
                12. Page 1511 Off
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                14. Page 1813 Off
                15. Page 1914 Off
                16. Page 2015 Off
                  1. Button 43
                    1. Page 16 Off
                      1. Button 44
                        1. Page 16 Off
                          1. Button 41
                            1. Page 21 Off
Page 18: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 36

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

35

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gases human activity Rising temperatures resulting in changes in weather sea levels and use patterns ndash commonly referred to as climate change ndash is the result of greenhouse gases being trapped in the atmosphere and the World Meteorological organization (WMo) states that there is a global consensus that the global climate is changing and that human activity contributes significantly

Hence for Asians living in hazard areas get set for even more of the same agonies year after year as global temperatures inexorably rise the WMorsquos ldquoA summary of current climate change findings and figuresrdquo released in March 2013 states that atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases that cause climate change continue to rise According to the report the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2011 (2012 data will be available later in 2013)

the WMo also reports that trends in extreme events are consistent with the expected impacts of climate change it says that the first 12 years of the 21st century have seen record temperatures Arctic ice melt exceptional heat waves in Western europe (2003) and Russia (2010) the most costly ever Atlantic hurricane (Katrina in 2005) and major floods in many parts of the world including pakistan in 2010 which affected more than twenty million people Many other extremes were also experienced elsewhere in the world early 2013 was marked by extreme heat in Australia and drought in Brazil and the United States

How to enhanceenergy efficiency with better power storageIn its chapter on energy storage the McKinsey report ldquoDisruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo figures that improvements in energy storage could help bring electricity to remote areas and boost the efficiency and quality of the electric grid while bringing down carbon-dioxide emissions

The report estimates that the potential economic impact of improved energy storage could be anywhere from $90 billion to $635 billion a year by 2025 but also qualifies that more than half the impact could come from adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles Nonetheless it posits that distributed energy ndash through the use of batteries in areas where wiring is not available or electrical supply is unreliable ndash could transform the lives of over one billion people who currently have no electricity even if the direct economic impact might still be small relative to the predicted economic impact of improved vehicle batteries (See accompanying chart)

The report also discusses the possible uses for improved energy storage in utilitiesrsquo power management helping utilities generate extra electricity for times of low demand and augmenting capacity in times of high demand instead of having to add new capacity all the time According to the report improved energy storage systems ndash ie pumped hydro-electric storage compressed air-energy storage and other non-battery technologies -- play an important role in integrating alternatives to fossil fuels into the energy mix and can improve the reliability of the electricity supply and bring electricity to new users

99Disruptive technologies Advances that will transform life business and the global economyMcKinsey Global Institute

POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACT

The economic impact of energy storage technologies in the applications we analyzed has the potential to reach $90 billion to $635 billion annually in 2025 (Exhibit 10) This value could arise from three primary applications electric and hybrid vehicles distributed energy and utility grid storage While energy storage for consumer electronics also has significant economic value a major portion of this value is effectively included within our estimated potential economic impact for mobile Internet technology (see Chapter 1) and therefore we do not include it here

Sized applications of energy storage could have economic impact of $90 billion to $635 billion per year in 2025 including consumer surplus

Exhibit 10

SOURCE McKinsey Global Institute analysis

Sum of sized potential economic impacts

90ndash 635

Other

potential

applications

(not sized)

Infra-

structure

deferral

~10

Peak load

shifting

10ndash

25

Frequency

regulation

25ndash

35

Electrifying

new areas

0ndash

50

Stabilizing

electricity

access

25ndash

100

Electric

and

hybrid

vehicles

20ndash

415

115 million passenger

vehicles sold

Over 1 billion vehicles

in the market

40ndash100 of

vehicles sold in

2025 could be

electric or hybrid

Fuel price $280ndash

760 per gallon

022 KWh per mile

fuel efficiency for

EVs

13000 TWh electricity

consumption in

emerging markets

2ndash70 hours per month

without electricity

35ndash55 adoption

with solar and

battery combination

35ndash55 of

companies in

Africa Middle East

and South Asia own

diesel generators

$075ndash210 per

KWh value of

uninterrupted

power supply to an

enterprise

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household

60ndash65 rural

electrification rate

12 billion people

without electricity

access

60 KWh monthly

electricity requirement

of average household

50ndash55 adoption

based on number of

people projected to

earn above $2 per

day

$020ndash060 per

KWh value per

household for

direct lighting TV

and radio benefits

$295 billion per year

investment in

infrastructure TampD

deferral

10 spent to reduce

congestion

15 adoption

based on share of

transmission lines

economical for

energy storage

Possible deferral of

infrastructure

investment by

25 years

27000ndash31000 TWh

global electricity

consumption

15 electricity

production reserved

for frequency

regulation

25 additional

reserved for

renewable integration

100 technology

adoption more

efficient and cost

competitive with

incumbent solutions

$30 per MWh

weighted average

frequency-

regulation price

12 of total electricity

production possible to

shift

850 million tons

additional CO2 release

10ndash20 adoption of

energy storage

given costs

compared with

combined cycle gas

turbines

$65ndash80 per MWh

between non-

renewable peak

and base load

$45ndash65 per MWh

between peak and

average wind price

$30ndash45 per MWh

between peak and

average solar price

Distri-

buted

energy

Utility

grid

NOTE Estimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only and are not comprehensive estimates of total

potential impact Estimates include consumer surplus and cannot be related to potential company revenue market size

or GDP impact We do not size possible surplus shifts among companies and industries or between companies and

consumers These estimates are not risk- or probability-adjusted Numbers may not sum due to rounding

Sized applications

Potential economic impact of sized applications in 2025 $ billion annually

Estimated scope in 2025

Estimated potential reach in 2025

Potential productivity or value gains in 2025

10

POTENTIAL IMPACT OF IMPROVED ENERGY STORAGE BY APPLICATION

Chart from McKinsey Global Institute ldquoDisruptive technologies advances that will transform life business and the global economyrdquo May 2013 Chapter 8 ldquoenergy Storagerdquo p 98

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

  1. Button 31
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    3. Page 52 Off
    4. Page 63 Off
    5. Page 74 Off
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        1. Page 3 Off
        2. Page 41 Off
        3. Page 52 Off
        4. Page 63 Off
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        10. Page 129 Off
        11. Page 1310 Off
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        13. Page 1512 Off
        14. Page 1613 Off
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            1. Page 4 Off
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            3. Page 62 Off
            4. Page 73 Off
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            10. Page 139 Off
            11. Page 1410 Off
            12. Page 1511 Off
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            16. Page 2015 Off
              1. Button 20
                1. Page 4 Off
                2. Page 51 Off
                3. Page 62 Off
                4. Page 73 Off
                5. Page 84 Off
                6. Page 95 Off
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                16. Page 2015 Off
                  1. Button 43
                    1. Page 16 Off
                      1. Button 44
                        1. Page 16 Off
                          1. Button 41
                            1. Page 21 Off
Page 19: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

NEW WAyS TO ExTRACT ENERGy COME WITH BIG BENEFITS AND BIG RISKS 38

The cenSEI Report bull July 15-28 2013

37

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

Get ready for more tropical cyclones in her paper on tropical cyclones just published in the proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States Massachusetts institute of technology meteorologist Kerry emanuel has warned that based on projected emissions of greenhouse gases models point to ldquoan increase in global tropical cyclone activity most evident in the North pacific region but also noticeable in the North Atlantic and South indian oceans in these regions both the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones are projected to increaserdquo

in Asia according to the ADB report the rise in carbon dioxide would have a very serious consequences for many countries that are particularly vulnerable to climate change Citing the ipCC the ADB states that ldquogeography climatology low per capita income and patterns of urbanization put indonesia the philippines thailand and Viet Nam at risk of losing 67 of their combined gDp by 2100 if temperatures changerdquo the said figure is more than twice the global average of losses linked to climate change the ADB report states

per the ADB report Cambodia the lao peoplersquos Democratic Republic (lao pDR) the philippines the Mekong Delta central thailand and Sumatra and Java in indonesia are more at risk than wealthier countries such as Brunei Darussalam and Singapore China and india could use up anywhere from 1 to 12 of their

annual gDp coping with climate refugees altered disease vectors and failing crops Bangladesh where 15 of the population lives within 1 meter of sea level at high tide is prone to flooding tropical cyclones and storm surgesmdashnot to mention drought in Cambodia substantial human and crop losses are attributed to worsening drought and flooding that are likely preludes to more extreme weather

Disruptive technology per its description has the capacity to disrupt how people work and how we interact with each other and our environment but nowhere does ldquodisruptive technologyrdquo live up to its description better than in the field of energy development where technologies employed to feed our growing need for energy could also disrupt the planetrsquos continuing existence the need and the ability to recover more energy must still meet the need to protect the already-fragile environment the world finds itself in

whatrsquos hotwhatrsquos cool

HOT

COOL

Summertime and the living is going to get harder Quite literally the planet is hot or perhaps more to the point the planet is continuing to get warmer

and not just because itrsquos summertime above the equator According to this July 3 Reuters report which says that according to a study by the United Nationsrsquo World

Meteorological Organization the world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in the first decade of the 21st century

Citing the study Reuters reported that every year of that decade except for 2008 was among the 10 warmest since records started being kept in the 1850s with 2010 the hottest at the time The world suffered unprecedented climate extremes in that decade the study found from heat waves in Europe and droughts in Australia to floods in Pakistan along with Hurricane Katrina in the United States in 2002 Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 droughts in the Amazon basin Australia and East Africa and the retreat of Arctic sea ice

It also reported that according to the study deaths from extreme events totaled 370000 people up 20 from the previous decade even as world population increased from 53 billion in 1990 to 69 billion in 2010 The major extreme climate events contributing to the heavy toll included a 2003 heat wave in Europe that claimed 66000 lives and a 2010 heat wave in Russia that claimed another 55000 lives

So while itrsquos tempting to say of course itrsquos hot itrsquos summertime just keep in mind itrsquos not just the time of year the planet really is getting warmer

Instant slushies made easy In keeping with the theme of summertime

The Huffington Post in this July dispatch leads us to something very cool both figuratively

and literally an instructional video by Grant Thompson the self-styled King of Random on how to make instant slushies from any bottle or can of soda To try to explain here how itrsquos done might spoil the fun of accessing the video and we certainly donrsquot want to do that so soda-lovers of the world prepare to be enlightened (maybe even awed) by the lesson that awaits you

The worldrsquos best sand and surf destinations Precisely because itrsquos summertime some sites have provided us with their takes on where to make the most of the season Business Insider provides us with its list of ldquo35 Beaches You Should Visit In Your Lifetimerdquo complete with a slide-show presentation that should suit most viewers whether yoursquore looking for a beach to hit or just looking for nice photos precisely because you know you canrsquot actually go to any of these places

Meanwhile National Geographic provides its own guide to the ldquoWorldrsquos Best 20 Surf Townsrdquo with brief travel guides ndash when to go where to stay where to eat what to play -- linked to each town Our only misgiving with the presentation is that while therersquos a thumbnail presentation of photos along with the travel information there doesnrsquot seem to be a way to present the thumbnails in larger format

Image credit Grant Thompson and Huffington Post

Image credit Gerald Haenel and National Geographic

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

  1. Button 31
    1. Page 3 Off
    2. Page 41 Off
    3. Page 52 Off
    4. Page 63 Off
    5. Page 74 Off
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                16. Page 2015 Off
                  1. Button 43
                    1. Page 16 Off
                      1. Button 44
                        1. Page 16 Off
                          1. Button 41
                            1. Page 21 Off
Page 20: TCR Volume 3 Number 12

39

CoNTeNTS LIve CoNNeCT TraveL PoWer UP

The plaster cast blaster While much attention has been devoted to 3D printingrsquos potential to transform traditional manufacturing additive printing appears to have found a ready if nascent niche in generating replacement parts for the repair or outright replacement of body parts (airway splint ears even skulls) Now blog entries in CNET and The Verge discuss one more 3D-printing application for regenerative medicine the custom-generated flexible cast replacing the age-old plaster cast for bone fractures

The Cortex exoskeleton cast developed by Jake Evill graduate of New Zealandrsquos Victoria University of Wellington would involve developing and printing an individualized nylon cast from an x-ray and a 3D scan of the fractured limb The lightweight cast would be ventilated -- welcome news to anyone whorsquos ever had an itch to scratch that was enclosed in a plaster cast (which is to say everyone whorsquos ever had to wear a plaster cast) -- but with extra reinforced membrane support around the area of the fracture Apart from its scratch-ability the ventilated cast would allow for showering

The Cortex remains a concept right now but given its relative simplicity and the promised benefits quite apart from how the medical world already appears to have taken to 3D printing as the CNET blog entry reminds us it might be just a matter of time before concept becomes reality

Whose life is it anyway From a concept that appears to be close to becoming reality we move to a concept still on the drawing board but which opens the imagination to its still-outlandish possibilities A July 1 dispatch in Quartz reports on the just-published paper by an Italian neurosurgeon who contends that with recent advances in reconnecting surgically severed spinal cords the greatest technical hurdle to a head transplant can now be overcome

The paper published in Surgical Neurology International by Dr Sergio Canavero of the Turin Advanced Neuromodulation Group provides an outline for the HEAVEN (HEad Anastomosis Venture) project the first human head transplantation with spinal linkage (project GEMINI)

As summarized in the Quartz dispatch the procedure would involves cooling the head for transplant to between 12 and 15 degrees Celsius followed by simultaneous removal of the heads of both patients (with ultra-sharp knives) followed by reconnection of the head to be preserved to the circulatory system of the donor body -- in which total cardiac arrest will have been induced -- within one hour Once the head is reconnected the heart of the donor body can be re-started and surgeons can re-connect the other vital systems including the spinal cord

Possible benefits for selected categories of patients aside the dispatch also reminds us that apart from the still-enormous technical challenges involved in such a procedure cost would be a potential barrier with Dr Canavero estimating the cost of such a procedure to be at least 10 million Euros (US$13 million) The dispatch also provided a link to one scientistrsquos reactions to a similar type of operation performed on a pair of monkeys by Dr Robert J White in 1970 where the transplanted head survived in the donor body reportedly for eight days

body lab

Photo credit Jake evill and CNeT

  1. Button 31
    1. Page 3 Off
    2. Page 41 Off
    3. Page 52 Off
    4. Page 63 Off
    5. Page 74 Off
    6. Page 85 Off
    7. Page 96 Off
    8. Page 107 Off
    9. Page 118 Off
    10. Page 129 Off
    11. Page 1310 Off
    12. Page 1411 Off
    13. Page 1512 Off
    14. Page 1613 Off
    15. Page 1714 Off
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    18. Page 2017 Off
      1. Button 32
        1. Page 3 Off
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        18. Page 2017 Off
          1. Button 19
            1. Page 4 Off
            2. Page 51 Off
            3. Page 62 Off
            4. Page 73 Off
            5. Page 84 Off
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            10. Page 139 Off
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            15. Page 1914 Off
            16. Page 2015 Off
              1. Button 20
                1. Page 4 Off
                2. Page 51 Off
                3. Page 62 Off
                4. Page 73 Off
                5. Page 84 Off
                6. Page 95 Off
                7. Page 106 Off
                8. Page 117 Off
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                10. Page 139 Off
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                15. Page 1914 Off
                16. Page 2015 Off
                  1. Button 43
                    1. Page 16 Off
                      1. Button 44
                        1. Page 16 Off
                          1. Button 41
                            1. Page 21 Off