Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution , Brussels, 1-3 June

1

Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution, Brussels, 1-3 June

EMEP/MSC-E

Overview on the Hemispheric Transport on POPs

Sergey Dutchak EMEP/MSC-E

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Recent studies


EMEP/MSC-E

1. Persistent Organic Pollutants in the Arctic AMAP, 2002

2. Regionally Based Assessment of Persistent Toxic Substances UNEP, 2002

3. Canadian Arctic Contaminants Assessment Report II 2003

4. Impact of warming ARCTIC ACIA, 2004

5. Persistent Toxic Substances, Food security, and Indigenous Peoples AMAP, 2004

6. Evaluation of B[a]P and -HCH transport from European and North American emission sources OSPAR, 2005

7. Scientific Journals 2004-2005

9. EMEP/MSC-E Reports of POPs EMEP, 2005

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International programmes on POPs:AMAP OSPAR HELCOM OECD . . .

Protocol on POPs UN ECE Stockholm Convention UNEP


EMEP/MSC-E

POPs:

PCBs, D&Fs, HCB, PAHs, -HCH, 10 pesticides

New substances:

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers Endosulfan, Dicofol . . .

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EMEP/MSC-E

Distribution of pollutants between media

Air2% Soil

15%

Sea82%

Vegetation1% Sea

3%

Air1%

Soil92%

Vegetation4%

-HCH PCB-153

Differences in physical-chemical properties of POPs

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EMEP/MSC-E


Monitoring and Modelling Evidence of Hemispheric Transport of POPs

Atmospheric transport

Oceanic transport

Riverine transport

Transpolar ice transport

AMAP Assessment 2002:Persistent Organic Pollutants in the Arctic

Main transport pathways:

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Monitoring evidence of POPs transport

EMEP/MSC-E


AMAP, EMEP, OSPARUNEP – under development

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EMEP/MSC-E


Time series of HCB, -HCH and PCBs in Arctic air

HCB -HCH PCB10


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EMEP/MSC-E



Concentrations of PCDD/Fs in ringed seals, in the Canadian Arctic, pg/g ww

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EMEP/MSC-E


Trends of ΣPeBDE in ringed seals and beluga in the Canadian Arctic and global production

New substances to the Protocol on POPs

Production Beluga Ringed seal

Worldwide PeBDE production, kt/yrPeBDE concentration, ng/g lw


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Monitoring evidence of transportComments:

EMEP/MSC-E


Available monitoring data in remote regions of theNorthern Hemisphere clearly show that POPs:

- are global pollutants

- are accumulated in different environment compartments and in some species, particularly in marine mammals.

Needs: - Long term observations in different environmental compartments on hemispheric scale

- Exchange of measurement data between international programmes

- Agreed monitoring strategy on global level

- Measurement campaigns

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BOX MODELS

ChemRange

CliMoChem

GLOBO-POP Canada

SimpleBox Netherlands

EVN-BETR andUK-MODEL

ELPOS Germany

G-CIEMS Japan

EMEP/MSC-E

}

UK

Model evidence of POPs hemispheric transport

CHEMICAL TRANSPORT MODEL

CAM/POPs MEDIA

DEHM-POP Denmark

MSCE-POP EMEP/MSC-E

ADOM-POP Germany

HYSPLIT 4 USA

Canada} Switzerland

EMEP/MSC-E Technical Report 1/2004

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EMEP/MSC-E

Typical structure of POP multicompartment models

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EMEP/MSC-E

CompoundOutflow

%

B[a]P ~ 30

PCDD/Fs ~ 50

PCBs ~ 50

-HCH ~ 70

HCB ~ 80

EMEPregion

Model evidence of POPs hemispheric transport

Outflow

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EMEP Multicompartment Hemispheric Transport Model (MSCE-POP-Hem)

Atmospheric vertical grid structure


EMEP/MSC-E

EMEP

Atmospheric transport

Horizontal grid structure: 2.52.5

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EMEP/MSC-E


Distribution of emission sources in the Northern Hemisphere, 1996

PCB-153 -HCH

Expert estimates

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EMEP/MSC-E

Annual deposition in 2002

B[a]P-HCH


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EMEP/MSC-E

Comparison of modelling results with monitoring data

European sites, PCB-153

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Haz

elrig

g 93

Haz

elrig

g 94

Haz

elrig

g 95

Kar

vatn

92

Kos

etic

e 96

Ror

vik

94

Ror

vik

95

Ror

vik

96

Mea

n an

nual

con

cent

ratio

ns,

pg/m

3

Observed

Model

Arctic sites, PCB-153

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

Ale

rt 9

3

Ale

rt 9

4

Dun

ai 9

3

Ny

Ale

sund

92

Ny

Ale

sund

93

Ny

Ale

sund

94

Pal

las

96

Sto

rhof

di 9

5

Sto

rhof

di 9

6

Sva

nvik

92

Tag

ish

92

Tag

ish

93

Tag

ish

94

Mea

n an

nual

con

cent

ratio

ns,

pg/m

3

Observed

Model

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Comparison of hemispheric and regional models


EMEP/MSC-E

Deposition fluxes of -HCH to OSPAR region, 2000 (North Atlantic)

resolution: 2.5ox2.5o resolution: 50x50 km2

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Intercontinental transport of PCB-153 from North American sources


EMEP/MSC-EAir concentrations

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EMEP/MSC-E

Monthly averages of PCB-153 surface atmospheric concentrations caused by sources from

North-western Europe

Seasonal variability JulyMarchJanuary

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EMEP/MSC-E

Source-receptor relationships

Contributions of main source groups to PCBs deposition to the Arctic

Deposition to the Arctic

Russia

18%

NorthAmerica

17%

North-western Europe40%

South-eastern Europe

17%

South-eastern Asia3%

Africa and Central Asia

5%

Deposition to the Arctic Canadian Arctic

Africaand Central

Asia8%

South-eastern

Asia6%

Russia11%

NorthAmeric

a39%South-eastern Europe

15%

North-western Europe

21%

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EMEP/MSC-E


POP ocean transport model

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EMEP/MSC-E


PCB-153 concentrations in the upper 100 m layer of ocean, ng/m3

1985 2000

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EMEP/MSC-E

Changes of concentrations of PCB-153 in seawater during 10 years (European source)

1st year 10th year

Sea currents, relative units

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EMEP/MSC-E

Sea currents, relative units

1st year 10th year

Changes of concentrations of PCB-153 in seawater during 10 years (American source)

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EMEP/MSC-E

River flux of -HCH

Changes in mean annual concentrations in the upper layer, ng/m3

~ 30% of totalinput to the Arctic Ocean

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Mean annual rate of ice melting in the Arctic,

mm/day EMEP/MSC-E

POP transport with the sea ice

Main ice transport directions

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Atlantic ocean14%

Pacific ocean 3%

Rivers37%

Atmosphere25%

Ice+Snow21%


EMEP/MSC-E

γ-HCH Input into Arctic Ocean, t/y2002

Sea currents

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EMEP/MSC-E

Climate change

Canadian Arctic Contaminants Assessment Report II

Changes associated with temperature,

precipitation, ice cover and with

ecosystems have a great potential to alter

pathways of POPs.

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EMEP/MSC-E

Climate change

Increases in annual average arctic temperature projected by an average of ACIA models for A2 and B2 emissions scenarios ~ 5-7oC

ACIA – Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

Impacts of a Warming Arctic: ACIA. Highlights [2004]

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EMEP/MSC-E

Wet deposition velocity via temperature

Gas/particle partitioning for three POPs (temperature dependence)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

T, 0 C

Vd we t

, cm

/s

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

T, oC

Fra

ctio

n of

par

ticul

ate

phas

e

PCB-153

Climate change and hemispheric transport

POPs behaviour is strongly temperature dependent

50%PCBs

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EMEP/MSC-E

Satellite Data on Changes of Sea Ice

Impacts of a Warming Arctic: ACIA. Highlights [2004]

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EMEP/MSC-E

Annual average concentration of PCB-153, pg/L in the upper sea layer for 1996

with sea ice without sea ice

Climate change

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EMEP/MSC-E

Most of the total quantity of POPs measured in the Arctic environment is derived from distant source of Northern Hemisphere

The atmosphere often predominates initially as a rapid transporting medium but with time other slower-moving (ocean) or stationary media (lake water, soil, vegetation) become the dominant reservoirs or transporting media.

Multicompartment transport models could generate information on global/hemispheric transport including intercontinental transport, source-receptor relationships, seasonal variability, transport with sea currents, etc.

Conclusions

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EMEP/MSC-E

Atmospheric transport, ocean currents, ice cover, and water-air exchange of POPs are all subject to alteration as a results of climate change.

Close cooperation of various international bodies and national experts in the field of emission inventories and projections, monitoring and modeling is highly appreciated.

Documents

Task Force on Hemispheric Transport on Air Pollution , Brussels, 1-3 June